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1,720B
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stringlengths
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contractQuestion
stringlengths
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stringlengths
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float64
0
50
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float64
-0
6.25M
commentorPositionOutcome
stringclasses
2 values
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12
ta6wt26d4k
false
Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alexander Miller
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,900,218,066
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
AlexanderMiller
https://firebasestorage.…b54-8f8eda824b90
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,081.145402
YES
2f317831253a
98ehl1ixul5
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "how will you determine resolution?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
1N2AHFvhcyilrMPyjOjH
public
contract
1,717,900,263,118
will-the-next-president-allow-as-ma
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will the next US president allow Hollywood to make as many true-to-physics time travel movies as past administrations?
null
null
null
null
null
kfg6vfttrgo
false
2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2", "label": "ScottAlexander", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "men...
Corinne
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,900,439,062
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
manic_pixie_agi
https://firebasestorage.…8d0-9fdad2a36df6
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
517.15276
NO
b8gjj8awwm
scjyxgerkbc
false
Reojf0vF1KStl8jhf9dodil7Q433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e446phzvof", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Douglas Campbell
k4XTBQLFuDvBljexbalv
public
contract
1,717,900,534,141
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-the-end
DouglasCampbell
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy5vuO-IQmcBW2wAwiuRlMculoQM7ZrH_wXNxjQ=s96-c
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
e446phzvof
0.089923
21.838419
NO
null
0olc2p0dd84o
false
2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The probability of is high enough I suspect it has already happened or the market is over confident.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Corinne
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,900,587,014
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
manic_pixie_agi
https://firebasestorage.…8d0-9fdad2a36df6
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
517.15276
NO
b8gjj8awwm
k9144qocbbm
false
2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Corinne
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,900,685,504
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
manic_pixie_agi
https://firebasestorage.…8d0-9fdad2a36df6
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
517.15276
NO
b8gjj8awwm
1bloja6rh55j
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k9144qocbbm", "label": "manic_pixie_agi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Shelvacu
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,900,727,128
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
k9144qocbbm
null
1,164.987894
NO
065fbd96fd63
9nlc8xrjhaf
false
2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think is worth resolving N/A to avoid perverse incentives", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
Corinne
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,900,792,916
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
manic_pixie_agi
https://firebasestorage.…8d0-9fdad2a36df6
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
517.15276
NO
b8gjj8awwm
bi8ijc51gd
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7dscwcu1m4g", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Snarflak
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,901,064,468
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
7dscwcu1m4g
null
313.021885
YES
bqu726ee8n
3k8xk16ten2
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g5vvcnfomod", "label": "Shelvacu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shelvacu
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,901,156,625
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Rationalussy 2: How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
g5vvcnfomod
null
null
null
null
6wfy8midf8l
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9nlc8xrjhaf", "label": "manic_pixie_agi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Pat Scott🩴
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,901,161,432
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
9nlc8xrjhaf
null
2,162.761365
YES
68bd808c2fa2
edv51n0jmz
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Which bet was this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,901,169,575
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
4,739.783083
NO
9dbcde390667
uls51vd4yfo
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qqt0r42b7u", "label": "AlQuinn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,717,901,354,179
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2d62h51fvje
null
20.124993
YES
51e4cacd136a
wbvjrj2w9ip
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "edv51n0jmz", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,901,454,309
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
edv51n0jmz
null
778.383102
YES
8gqgoka43j
z2m3qx9ph1
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe add the manifest 2024 tag to this? (Not required ofc but it fits and that way it’s covered by the recap markets(", "type": "text" ...
Ziddletwix
UdahpHQ9JYVsT7hwhAKJ
public
contract
1,717,901,454,587
will-i-make-it-to-the-final-table-o
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will I make it to the final table of the Manifest 2024 poker tournament?
null
0.04409
17,034.605688
NO
null
f0s6gwhfgyr
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wbvjrj2w9ip", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,901,526,795
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
edv51n0jmz
null
4,739.783083
NO
9dbcde390667
64vlk6j6pqg
false
frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The conservatives have it, 635 to 609. This can resolve now:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Mana
XB9QwIiyWvAuTJG3rTQn
public
contract
1,717,901,704,027
uk-general-election-2024-who-will-f
Mana
https://firebasestorage.…03a-956bf00f7280
UK General Election 2024 - who will field more candidates, Reform UK or the Conservative Party?
null
null
14,235.113885
NO
3qe9u9zlu8
kpk5lku395
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wfgl6u5t01s", "label": "AlexanderMiller", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Snarflak
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,717,901,725,482
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
wfgl6u5t01s
null
null
null
null
wr3oqp5f8u9
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uiiz6me2ekp", "label": "stardust", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,717,901,738,434
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
uiiz6me2ekp
null
null
null
null
oq4b2dh2zt
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What do I choose if I'm voting third party but my electoral vote is going to Biden?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragr...
Snarflak
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,717,901,765,590
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
null
null
null
null
null
f3irbpw8df
false
etEkYCPEe5emmK4vvbR30H7i5982
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4mneokty0wp", "label": "Aleph", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Max Harms
6Gakf8HFwgl7sudHZQvM
public
contract
1,717,902,101,338
will-gpt5-be-able-to-be-a-coauthor
MaxHarms
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0xedDuqyhLuCxjkkUd0pH8wOEEFh2BRRMNMgrdTzG1EU=s96-c
Will GPT-5 be able to be a decent co-author?
4mneokty0wp
null
null
null
null
pcxcaxhgw2
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Haws
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,902,268,688
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
null
null
377.968317
NO
daiq1al7ih
ghozx1yv8s7
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f0s6gwhfgyr", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,902,316,562
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
edv51n0jmz
null
778.383102
YES
8gqgoka43j
t5f5uiio0c
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ghozx1yv8s7", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jim
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,902,461,710
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
edv51n0jmz
null
379.069492
YES
b1c017127c93
l29t4qby82
false
U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can confirm that @MaxHarms is not at Manifest this weekend and won’t be. Epistemic Status: Married. ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Haven
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,902,937,603
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
HWH
https://firebasestorage.…c25-335c6547f4d1
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
654.719365
NO
54f7f848acad
8zlmfcoyvk9
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uls51vd4yfo", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Al Quinn
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,717,902,969,518
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2d62h51fvje
null
null
null
null
b7d6jmmc9rh
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How are you going to resolve if it doesn’t come out in 2024? I think N/A resolution doesn’t work anymore.", "type": "text" } ],...
Oleg Eterevsky
ZuktObarUpBJB0I9tZFW
public
contract
1,717,903,788,331
conditional-on-hollow-knight-silkso
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
Conditional on Hollow Knight: Silksong releasing in 2024, which month will it be released in?
null
null
null
null
null
kfmq296jx5o
false
GvDEldGQT9bg4BCNjMPY4WuZMgw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think this should be resolved ✌️", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt":...
Petra
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,903,920,492
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
0xPetra
https://firebasestorage.…515-1d696957d74f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
256.898858
YES
7ef68c4dd728
fpe7t84kbt4
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": ...
stefanie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,903,982,189
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
5,167.201674
YES
ac9f592329e2
w1817bxrzen
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fpe7t84kbt4", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jim
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,904,001,302
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
fpe7t84kbt4
null
379.069492
YES
b1c017127c93
9ue1hrc9ip8
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8zlmfcoyvk9", "label": "AlQuinn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,717,904,027,182
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2d62h51fvje
null
20.124993
YES
51e4cacd136a
f672o72m7tv
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "you're right. but there was one of these in a Summer Camp Bootcamp and ~40 of us saw it glow in the dark. (datura/moonflower)", "type": "text...
stefanie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,904,097,237
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
fpe7t84kbt4
null
5,167.201674
YES
ac9f592329e2
uw57jhmg4n
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zk46y3sazz", "label": "Predict", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jackson polack
t7Ewym4a84h1HwAnaWmL
public
contract
1,717,904,384,966
will-apple-announce-new-hardware-at
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Apple announce new hardware at WWDC 2024?
sshuawaitc
null
null
null
null
h8cgmpoubcq
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t4v781zkg7", "label": "10thOfficial", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Stuart Slagle
XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9
public
contract
1,717,904,396,750
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo-77661cde04af
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
t4v781zkg7
null
307.555755
YES
2fbe03d51bbf
cvdy5aagenq
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f672o72m7tv", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shelvacu
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,904,471,788
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
fpe7t84kbt4
null
1,164.987894
NO
065fbd96fd63
szjakhiwo8
false
yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sorry shareholders - placed second in my qualifier :( ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
Daniel Filan
UdahpHQ9JYVsT7hwhAKJ
public
contract
1,717,904,471,818
will-i-make-it-to-the-final-table-o
DanielFilan
https://firebasestorage.…6a0-6889d0558a2e
Will I make it to the final table of the Manifest 2024 poker tournament?
null
0
1,766.997304
YES
null
rvdn3ait9ak
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cvdy5aagenq", "label": "Shelvacu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,904,979,756
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
fpe7t84kbt4
null
5,167.201674
YES
ac9f592329e2
wfbq3q1t7t
false
oTM5dBmBh1aiQBPsyBDhMvHheZt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I've heard that it will not be with a title change to windows 12, any big update counts or only if it's windows 12? Regardless sailing demo seemed prom...
noney
YAeFFOYM2J6mbTVWS3QN
public
contract
1,717,905,732,395
will-microsoft-unveil-windows-12-be
noney
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAstXlydmpqoy7N40v4rx0DkqBzMnYi_09tG46Hye-19bu=s96-c
Will Microsoft unveil Windows 12 before Old School Runescape releases the sailing skill?
null
0.214041
154.249556
NO
null
gd8jnzhclf8
false
oTM5dBmBh1aiQBPsyBDhMvHheZt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "American beers or proper beers? 😂", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
noney
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,905,850,299
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
noney
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAstXlydmpqoy7N40v4rx0DkqBzMnYi_09tG46Hye-19bu=s96-c
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
null
0.273705
78.287496
NO
null
vtw1d54jrvd
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I may add other Grade 1 races this summer. Until then, we can look forward to the fall classic", "type": "text" } ], "ty...
Stuart Slagle
XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9
public
contract
1,717,905,902,595
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo-77661cde04af
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
null
null
307.555755
YES
2fbe03d51bbf
s4zgw51m4qa
false
m2VgPpAjjSd4u6PASOhZTK2PL2q2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o1d22dezfzb", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Alex Kislenko
ww1rEG9yipAzwyt2NPqb
public
contract
1,717,905,936,676
of-the-10-coolfold-financial-portfo-d75c9ce849e6
AlexKislenko
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKdK0jJKEuURL-YuB6QMImC9F1pIMg8cr9d551vvFlhG0Y=s96-c
Of the 10 CoolFold Financial portfolio stocks, which will perform the best?
o1d22dezfzb
null
null
null
null
wo8f3hm611i
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iwbesnbalr", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Pat Scott🩴
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,717,906,204,700
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
8s2q5nqaaj
null
282.45773
YES
a06afbcc5807
lwx7q5xndpn
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "According to ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Kevin Burke
808CzCXU2zLf7xiZYTCo
public
contract
1,717,907,738,311
will-there-be-a-liquidity-event-for-2c6e882f3f1f
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will there be a "liquidity event" for Figma by the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
2697xef0t5v
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Kalshi team told me they’ll win so logically they will. 😎", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
Elliot
csARaDbNcMoo1px9lvgB
public
contract
1,717,908,144,973
will-kalshi-win-their-lawsuit-again
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Will Kalshi win their lawsuit against the CFTC?
null
null
366.317229
YES
9e6bae17bd98
vecbd61e1u
false
Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wr3oqp5f8u9", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
blankspace737
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,717,908,157,571
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
stardust
https://firebasestorage.…901-b7160011e796
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
uiiz6me2ekp
null
null
null
null
7d219g4usp
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k9144qocbbm", "label": "manic_pixie_agi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Conflux
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,908,388,459
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
k9144qocbbm
null
972.477861
NO
08c3ae385a69
i5zr85rmct
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As of today Yuki is ahead 7:6 🏎🎌", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
CEGw0lbt4yoxqTRl4EFx
public
contract
1,717,908,419,371
will-yuki-tsunoda-have-equal-or-mor
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
Will Yuki Tsunoda have equal or more Q3 appearances than Sergio Perez during the 2024 season?
null
null
null
null
null
vit1896w81s
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zpc5piiid7", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Conflux
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,908,487,431
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
zpc5piiid7
null
972.477861
NO
08c3ae385a69
bi7oss6ngq
false
bGzeFSQonHViiUGlIQKSQCoSMuj1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i8xloay9k7s", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
not telling
AJX909fjJknukKUl3tgc
public
contract
1,717,909,532,126
what-are-the-top-frictions-preventi
nottelling2ccc
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0KZO9Ji8D2vJ2u2RLHgTvQg2mIqcQcJzV9rf51=s96-c
What are the top frictions preventing wider adoption of forecasting best practices?
ng98d0yxil
null
0
NO
0mi1hn2zho
pjv9tuau83
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Note to self: check that your song is within your vocal range before choosing it based on a name gimmick 😅", "type": "text" } ...
N.C. Young
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,910,049,310
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
385.920306
NO
biacvy3l9d
7cvtzwakwx9
false
MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nice to see the humans win and the bots lose. Was this at Manifold?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Jim
5V9EGPQwo2kNTIv4YoVU
public
contract
1,717,910,337,137
will-i-interact-with-a-marriageable
JimAusman
https://firebasestorage.…02c-9c3e2d7602ee
Will I interact with a (marriageable) woman in 2024?
null
0.577808
10.711957
YES
null
nkd0r4z23r
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To me it feels as if the LLMs are echoing Nick Land and CCRU. I like that ❤ ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
uair01
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,910,365,748
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
null
0.302149
66.216424
NO
null
7w7wosoxcun
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "159c5k6pvx", "label": "JohnDavidPressman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
uair01
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,910,477,314
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
0.302149
66.216424
NO
null
lnvaas7bsu
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7w7wosoxcun", "label": "uair01", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
John David Pressman
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,910,770,505
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
0.302149
437.559324
YES
null
uuq6gtbgsic
false
6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves yes, ari and I argued about it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joe and Seth
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,911,336,081
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
JoeandSeth
https://firebasestorage.…d63-7cd4d86d6320
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,607.210059
YES
6zfayp35mv
3haym3gmtqi
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1418fg99eewf", "label": "ShitakiIntaki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
singer
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,911,377,978
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
an17ef03bi
null
20.907574
YES
06wyzo1n6b
1wu2ljliodf
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
N.C. Young
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,911,423,429
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
6,204.096091
YES
g2a24dat3o
dbvdqqn5r6a
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolution poll", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
N.C. Young
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,911,435,654
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
1wu2ljliodf
null
6,204.096091
YES
g2a24dat3o
z7c0wv6rsac
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Vote AENEWS!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot
g4JdqoPd68LkPRFxVW7R
public
contract
1,717,911,500,920
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp-en6nwx7dhd
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
null
null
null
2lfvd5oo7nj
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We kissed hello and goodbye but didn't do much else as I had hoped because she was tired ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "...
Benjamin Ikuta
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,717,911,625,212
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
ouyno8q5kx
null
null
null
null
cutmrx20rj
false
6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uuq6gtbgsic", "label": "JoeandSeth", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joe and Seth
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,911,626,992
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
JoeandSeth
https://firebasestorage.…d63-7cd4d86d6320
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
uuq6gtbgsic
null
1,607.210059
YES
6zfayp35mv
w3ndp4018we
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0viiaw6j949c", "label": "ConnorDolan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
singer
7sMmoXCJkRw1XR66HUyP
public
contract
1,717,911,738,985
are-these-programming-language-feat
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Are these programming language features underrated or overrated?
frtxwmzvub8
null
129.048289
NO
qcikqf7q07
v0h9p9u0oba
false
qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7cvtzwakwx9", "label": "JimAusman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
M.H.
5V9EGPQwo2kNTIv4YoVU
public
contract
1,717,911,881,789
will-i-interact-with-a-marriageable
MilfordHammerschmidt
https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f
Will I interact with a (marriageable) woman in 2024?
7cvtzwakwx9
1
2,161.806925
YES
null
h8bo8lgdz6s
false
hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don’t think the outcome here will be meaningful: It’s a public market and there are many consequences for coming out as a Trump voter. ", "...
Mark Bowen
QkZgeemQXPC0Bm5pfXrI
public
contract
1,717,912,432,722
are-you-voting-for-trump-or-biden
MarkBowen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c
Are you voting for Trump or Biden?
null
null
null
null
null
u2vim9eebe9
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are you planning on betting? I'd be happy to buy 500 NO to help create an incentive.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
singer
KiVRt189JWbSD33jMHLK
public
contract
1,717,912,696,192
will-i-solve-a-project-euler-task-b
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Will I solve a Project Euler task before the end of June?
null
0.846036
30.37833
NO
null
jd9tehsaaeg
false
UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sz4fngm5jrg", "label": "sydneyf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Raj Thimmiah
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,912,865,751
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
raj
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
sz4fngm5jrg
0.252467
1,298.196396
NO
null
1sq0d70hzzd
false
UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ohxxq8kosfi", "label": "JohnBennett", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Raj Thimmiah
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,912,876,527
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
raj
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
ohxxq8kosfi
0.252467
1,298.196396
NO
null
13s6da8ixye
false
yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2024-06-08: 1716", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
phaen
nuB4dFSb3poVQn7SZG7I
public
contract
1,717,912,955,565
will-i-eat-under-1800-calories-each
phaen
https://firebasestorage.…9a0-90cebc102691
Will I eat under 1800 Calories each day this week (through 2024-06-14)?
null
null
null
null
null
yhbx5a4zbi
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Edit: nvm", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,913,453,238
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
778.383102
YES
8gqgoka43j
q4dbhzbkdd
false
GmaScn1bXEaAgZvilcjmNxHS6qk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You going to resolve it? 😅", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yoav Tzfati
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,913,612,996
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Crazytieguy
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-adaa38437cc0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
2,015.421503
YES
khdhk3m6ox
gy89h26z76u
false
yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not entirely. But even if I go that route, I'll have to figure out how to sustain things after going off it anyway, so I'm focusing on that first. I mi...
phaen
v6UUopLRUlNTnxyqxLMa
public
contract
1,717,913,697,070
will-i-weigh-under-200-lbs-on-20241
phaen
https://firebasestorage.…9a0-90cebc102691
Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-12-31? (-1.55 lbs/week)
ut79icq71qd
0.376518
93.882781
YES
null
jjvbik2bids
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1sq0d70hzzd", "label": "raj", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Savior of Plant
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,913,979,244
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
ohxxq8kosfi
0.252467
747.262227
NO
null
p6gimjmhfui
false
UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g60ym6kfjwn", "label": "qaslay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Raj Thimmiah
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,914,050,844
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
raj
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
g60ym6kfjwn
0.252467
1,298.196396
NO
null
offwe1gmnt
false
UC4813YJL9am8VoQE1BO8BTZQo53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gd8jnzhclf8", "label": "noney", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Raj Thimmiah
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,914,063,646
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
raj
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giz1IaNINtDyr-o_uJ8uDu_aw4N5PoZpto97YE7szI=s96-c
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
gd8jnzhclf8
0.252467
1,298.196396
NO
null
rsxoymujhvk
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Savior of Plant
RbXF1OIhLktjarrR7dpn
public
contract
1,717,914,348,435
will-the-new-york-times-confirm-tha
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will the New York Times confirm that the leak of its source code on 4chan was legitimate in June?
null
0.2201
1,833.648222
YES
null
k0x8xydqzk
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "someone won already", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot
WWJjUMfB5xTM1HSz7p5i
public
contract
1,717,914,829,687
first-person-to-say-pickle-to-me-wi
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
First person to say pickle to me wins 2k mana.
null
null
null
null
null
emzmt6ct4e9
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h9uo12uk7iw", "label": "BooLightning", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
PrOf9UCuUoBtloMa7Dwj
public
contract
1,717,914,965,349
how-accurate-is-the-ai-countdown
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
How accurate is the ai countdown
4rw6hg6y8gw
null
null
null
null
ldd9i8u7amh
false
8AgOEn5pOUahZGukE6BrFzQosC03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves NO with zero bullet points about sports on June 8 23:59:59 UTC. See this ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": n...
AhmedButCooler
WLWSNJqQq04B4S9Qkj0m
public
contract
1,717,915,632,706
will-the-english-wikipedia-in-the-n
AhmedButCooler
https://firebasestorage.…c5d-88709946cd32
Will the English Wikipedia "In the news" section have two or more bullet points about sports on June 8?
null
null
null
null
null
kvf1tuw83mp
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Tories just shade it!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": nu...
Simon Grayson
XB9QwIiyWvAuTJG3rTQn
public
contract
1,717,915,943,443
uk-general-election-2024-who-will-f
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
UK General Election 2024 - who will field more candidates, Reform UK or the Conservative Party?
null
null
null
null
null
bv603xvz7m
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Reform are running in 609 seats.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "conte...
Simon Grayson
Vqlel5shoIBN16Kz8UwF
public
contract
1,717,915,995,531
uk-general-election-2024-will-refor
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK run in at least 600 seats?
null
0.99015
155.879928
YES
null
bpm2fxuq0jr
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Simon Grayson
ceVViMOewgc4GXfXApmK
public
contract
1,717,916,110,144
uk-general-election-2024-will-any-t
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
UK General Election 2024 - Will any Tory candidates defect and run for Reform UK?
null
0.05
3,569.169159
NO
null
qhel8suun5l
false
sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3tffmg6hmd6", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
redcat
4uM25K4xRTWW65l4iWoO
public
contract
1,717,916,130,671
will-this-market-help-me-find-an-of
redcat
https://firebasestorage.…35d-f375e7e7fe68
Will this market get me an offer to interview that I end up doing for a new job by the end of Manifest?
3tffmg6hmd6
0.221445
0
NO
null
phdc8hxq1us
false
U63xexgO2Cebw3ZnyRHJ9ssHfui2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves YES - CO2030 begins the application process in 2025", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Eliot
yR6AeIP3VYjTzyNWZ5sK
public
contract
1,717,916,463,109
will-stanford-return-to-standarized-324a44013cf4
eliot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfDdlMXLAUeGjbpftcJiAgOHaluXWk-aT2uLji8EylC6WiZ=s96-c
Will Stanford return to standarized testing requirements (SAT / ACT) for undergraduate admissions in 2025?
null
0.622358
631.278337
YES
null
t0xh3ic0lc
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bdfxme3ycjq", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,916,546,482
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
k90xqt6nne
null
121.300315
NO
e351573613dc
d4cck9o75b
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q4dbhzbkdd", "label": "Crazytieguy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
N.C. Young
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,916,566,841
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
6,204.096091
YES
g2a24dat3o
6he2ckiktmm
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bpm2fxuq0jr", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Savior of Plant
ceVViMOewgc4GXfXApmK
public
contract
1,717,916,974,480
uk-general-election-2024-will-any-t
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
UK General Election 2024 - Will any Tory candidates defect and run for Reform UK?
bpm2fxuq0jr
0.046616
0
YES
null
raez8162ie
false
ksztJQVI1vWwo5yFkFpC6lc7NHU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I win, by not being in attendance. Boom.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
50P
g4JdqoPd68LkPRFxVW7R
public
contract
1,717,917,071,738
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp-en6nwx7dhd
50P
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte_ZmIMBL1BbPtdDtuZmJDd-iaXbsFKMss8lNRfesgO=s96-c
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
null
null
null
bjf2bugckn
false
vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please check the following market, it seems to be miscalibrated relative to this one.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs"...
AVS
e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8
public
contract
1,717,917,170,639
will-israel-declare-war-on-hezbolla
AVS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
null
0.583554
1.847471
NO
null
xehvghmwx7
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Marx, Engels, Proudhon, Bakunin, Krapotkin, and Castro all have huge beards", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,917,386,625
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
147.699591
NO
dcfbedc0e892
w0mnmtselc
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r2tkgcqr0x", "label": "ShitakiIntaki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,917,530,332
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
okqov2hth4d
null
147.699591
NO
dcfbedc0e892
unxmz9aw55g
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d4cck9o75b", "label": "NcyRocks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Elliot
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,019,455
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
3,409.083049
YES
qbscyj6hy5
pnmtfl51i1m
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "unxmz9aw55g", "label": "Elliot_dev", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ian Philips
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,389,310
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
5,338.694987
YES
k9qra7yxoc
69ti161dzrj
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pnmtfl51i1m", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Elliot
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,423,166
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
3,409.083049
YES
qbscyj6hy5
42urrfwv1wb
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "69ti161dzrj", "label": "Elliot_dev", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Elliot
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,439,441
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
3,409.083049
YES
qbscyj6hy5
7l34dnu3ul4
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "69ti161dzrj", "label": "Elliot_dev", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ian Philips
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,491,282
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
5,338.694987
YES
k9qra7yxoc
l2e4acf7qa
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7l34dnu3ul4", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Elliot
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,545,445
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
3,409.083049
YES
qbscyj6hy5
csq9gapc24q
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l2e4acf7qa", "label": "Elliot_dev", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ian Philips
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,569,904
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
5,338.694987
YES
k9qra7yxoc
rlveyf53pt
false
js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I want it to be true so I'm betting on preferences. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc"...
JohnofCharleston
gvExxWwTMhpbNsuDMxq0
public
contract
1,717,918,594,970
will-there-be-a-2nd-summer-camp-hel
JohnofCharleston
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7uw9wqj12zSkINvp2TjDpvLAn3j0gX7j7-RLYCrA=s96-c
Will there be a 2nd summer camp held in 2025?
null
0.755892
63.777266
YES
null
jm743mbh7zr
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "csq9gapc24q", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Elliot
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,608,675
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
3,409.083049
YES
qbscyj6hy5
dpuuiuxta1m
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "csq9gapc24q", "label": "ian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Elliot
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,918,639,706
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
q4dbhzbkdd
null
3,409.083049
YES
qbscyj6hy5