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p1dspnd52bf
false
Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Anyone who denies that AI won't be by 2030 is deluding themselves, let alone 2035", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
blankspace737
YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d
public
contract
1,718,536,820,629
by-2025-will-most-welleducated-peop
stardust
https://firebasestorage.…901-b7160011e796
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
null
0.126623
342.957091
YES
null
dkgyy1z7jyv
false
Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What the past 10 years should have taught everyone is never bet against AI. Its progressing at a faster rate than the most optiimistic predictions whic...
blankspace737
BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz
public
contract
1,718,537,291,300
will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
stardust
https://firebasestorage.…901-b7160011e796
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
null
0.239061
395.702475
YES
null
jfaquj7gxag
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This matches the Metaculus market’s close date. This Manifold version could be updated to end later if desired.", "type": "text" } ...
David Glidden
a7WqfMq9R45znElz37zX
public
contract
1,718,538,371,554
will-an-ai-system-be-reported-to-ha
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
7so807ln5u
null
null
null
null
snijij5qqws
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'd do it if it was less than 10k. Coming from someone with two \"natural\" children", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
Timothy Bandors
nKy4ULBxQZNHPoOWUDun
public
contract
1,718,538,756,096
will-it-be-revealed-that-at-least-3
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
Will it be revealed that at least 3 people with Wikipedia articles have done IQ selection on their children before 2028?
Lety0ZGd88NvVMjyaD1S
null
null
null
null
hw43sslith
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think it's more than that. I still think it's worth it. How much would you pay for a pill that raised your IQ or your child's IQ by 5 points? Way ...
Nathan Wei
nKy4ULBxQZNHPoOWUDun
public
contract
1,718,538,834,808
will-it-be-revealed-that-at-least-3
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will it be revealed that at least 3 people with Wikipedia articles have done IQ selection on their children before 2028?
Lety0ZGd88NvVMjyaD1S
null
null
null
null
jfeqp8egnmi
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you not know that a man is not dead while his name is still spoken?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Gaz Downright
Tiu2Ul6Lso8r3IdcT5pN
public
contract
1,718,540,158,528
will-jimmy-carter-exist-at-the-end-3ce6858d57e0
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of July 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
scg5exgf1x8
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I admire your optimism", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shaked Koplewitz
RAfP69qbh16Quoc2WeQD
public
contract
1,718,540,731,485
will-the-icj-determine-that-israel
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
30h70z45bs2
null
null
null
null
xv4jljadpxc
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I imagine timeline-gates to be not space-continious.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc"...
Kongo Landwalker
GP7FeJsbtU5Uh2efttSS
public
contract
1,718,541,259,364
if-we-discover-time-travel-what-kin
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
If we discover time travel, what kind will it be?
vi75c04qcg
null
null
null
null
a05wmmyodtb
false
Fbh0cUO6NGZ3rMo3qdu6qWyIVb63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Disney @ 40 square miles", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Adam Beedell
hiypdy59y6
public
contract
1,718,542,239,301
will-it-be-widely-understood-that-t
AdamBeedell
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhjmtPJsI8lg6fn9j9m6kNKjlMGPYxrXtNHuqw7ABo9Q=s96-c
Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
wwok29sb4z
false
jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Michael Wheatley
6qSDHpqU8H2i8r2ZvMts
public
contract
1,718,542,943,564
will-media-coverage-about-manifest
MichaelWheatley
https://firebasestorage.…671-d7dcd38ad23a
Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups?
null
0.275504
2,001.444252
NO
null
tcqlb2u7f1q
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Christopher Randles
H2C0pUFoXUunAu8b7i2f
public
contract
1,718,543,009,947
coolfold-2024-which-of-these-2024-e
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (33 DONE)
null
null
366.044922
NO
b5f7218e483d
892icsf1297
false
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Qoiuoiuoiu
TI4wY7MrXPBXbYLwOfun
public
contract
1,718,543,319,269
trump-in-or-near-cybertruck-by-2025
Qoiuoiuoiu
https://firebasestorage.…2ea-1eb85c642bfa
Trump in or near Cybertruck by 2025
null
0.390656
24.364584
YES
null
8n4cb5p6yc
false
D5g8arLKvGUoIN9B25QJIJA31HL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wikipedia for 2019 elections says that they won 187+147=334 seats back then: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Jacek
D3grDK6ynMkoro3FVH7C
public
contract
1,718,543,361,642
what-will-be-true-about-the-2024-eu
Jacek
https://firebasestorage.…c18-309c50f2c6b1
What will be true about the 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections
ht5d0dcvto7
null
849.488643
YES
f90c6e92a360
1y39i9bjdwf
false
oCGz6skK84YejXCqZYfyRYbHWf02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It happened. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Jérémy Perret
3WwBmIYT1ir5TKVjgALk
public
contract
1,718,544,372,420
will-mrbeast-release-a-video-about
JeremyPerret
https://firebasestorage.…4d9-97ed5ec18e9b
Will MrBeast release a video about GiveDirectly by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
nv76shdori
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "DiCaprio will mistakenly think it’s a dating site that matches his age interest. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
Tricky Duck
DABmBhaVaykYWMCFNwhQ
public
contract
1,718,544,825,473
who-will-acquire-23andme
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Who will acquire 23andMe?
null
null
15.631097
YES
9fssrn0hvl
y6ddq8ilm6f
false
Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is incredible", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lambda Fairy
3WwBmIYT1ir5TKVjgALk
public
contract
1,718,545,073,321
will-mrbeast-release-a-video-about
tfae
https://firebasestorage.…ddb-10ca8d6fc3c7
Will MrBeast release a video about GiveDirectly by the end of 2024?
1y39i9bjdwf
null
null
null
null
bqswvbdkf6p
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zNNQ1oKJAKPX2GwbUODThDvBLPr1", "label": "RobertKennedy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
The Official
2WgcOsviMro02kFcj6Cf
public
contract
1,718,545,791,123
will-the-ufl-complete-their-2024-se
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Will the UFL complete their 2024 season?
null
0.99
2,927.661384
YES
null
o03ykcspmp
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "NAA would be pronounced “nah,” as in “Tell me how you slipped through the Olympic drug screenings.” “NAA.”", "type": "text" } ...
Tricky Duck
hjnRluKTOLgd11u4ykX9
public
contract
1,718,545,916,143
what-will-become-a-new-popular-posi
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Name new popular, positive terms for genetic technology use in oneself or one's offspring [2k subsidy]
null
null
9.446583
YES
pu44mfh49z
ei60c3yt9nv
false
j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would you bet against AI developing FTL next week? Instead of making blanket claims, each proposition should be evaluated on its own merits. ", ...
Jim Hays
BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz
public
contract
1,718,546,507,751
will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
JimHays
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
dkgyy1z7jyv
0.23
3,356.602967
NO
null
uaa8bn1m6d
false
n3wkv4kEB7Z21j2zWKd8dI9UJTz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "170 classes as of 6/15", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
rolemartyr-x
YR2UuEqvQXzCny8ywYjO
public
contract
1,718,546,518,415
will-i-complete-my-200th-boxing-cla
rolemartyrx
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIUndX5os02z4ljOJyvkhEnif4neS6T-_T5lXcS7LykH0G7=s96-c
Will I complete my 200th boxing class by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3l2ecjjc4hm
false
DTyyXdqFjkWdnFRnL04Exf8XNBH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are we counting tethered weather balloons?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
William May
7eKBJxpgwK1qbgOU57J8
public
contract
1,718,547,427,836
will-any-humancreated-structure-bre
willMay
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteeDrgBpYDhcDpFLfsJCcUx16JMujXQeeQhEItDcczzFNw=s96-c
Will any human-created structure break 1km in height before 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
yye30bio6fl
false
22vje7Gs7Ga9EJVOdaSMAJUyRtf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please note that Linux is currently sitting at 2.32% market share, so betting NO here means that you believe Linux market share will ", "type...
coprod
mol2lbhPiVwilBaM2mcu
public
contract
1,718,547,766,382
will-linux-get-to-2-market-share-in
the_coproduct
https://firebasestorage.…126-5954297853f8
Will Linux get to 2% market share in steam by 2025?
null
0.876259
414.640278
YES
null
l9k8qtq3smn
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm predicting this market to be around 40% by the next chapter if kizaru is not mentioned ", "type": "text" } ], "type":...
Andrew
biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV
public
contract
1,718,548,121,692
will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?
null
0.670798
711.866932
NO
null
ridqrcwfls8
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Current symptoms: nasal congestion so bad that it required many interventions to be able to breathe through my nose at night (Sudafed+ibuprofen+saline...
Jonathan Ray
cCKe5crr6hlARaVQvGtl
public
contract
1,718,548,213,900
will-my-followup-covid-test-be-posi
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will my follow-up covid test be positive?
null
null
null
null
null
37i56ouahr7
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Huh. Weird. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "ty...
Muga Sofer
D3grDK6ynMkoro3FVH7C
public
contract
1,718,548,320,955
what-will-be-true-about-the-2024-eu
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
What will be true about the 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections
ht5d0dcvto7
null
1,823.864813
YES
4134195c2889
ewa0utq90c8
false
8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "label": "1941159478", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Scott Supak
2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d
public
contract
1,718,548,969,310
what-will-bidens-approval-rating-at
ScottSupak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c
What will Biden's approval rating at 538 be on 6/30?
null
null
148.203575
YES
cnbg187h4a
c0m2j1u29q6
false
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How do we improve the liquidity here?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "al...
Tyler
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,549,408,076
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Tyler31
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
null
null
1,756.523271
NO
21176624aeb8
g1b28n9a39f
false
RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Adding this for correctness, legitimate violence is a subset of violence, and therefore claiming that it doesn't have a monopoly on violence is false. ...
Peter Njeim
hiypdy59y6
public
contract
1,718,549,513,252
will-it-be-widely-understood-that-t
PeterNjeim
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKEfIjg6agfzK10gUG7Pht9z6y3O1nV87K7pQwUqKf_0HE=s96-c
Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?
vai971orhc
null
null
null
null
otjg1of0sw
false
NIDSXnqp4yUVKjlSF1NMrUw0Dbx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
protomer
i6iwnxebsp
public
contract
1,718,549,564,577
how-much-antiesg-activism-will-sp-5
promisemender
https://firebasestorage.…192-e0c170a475c7
How much anti-ESG activism will S&P 500 companies face in 2025 relative to 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
tofl4qz9mkm
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are people betting this so high just because of AI doom and charter cities? I think if the government willingly cedes 26mi^2 to a charter city for a ...
Jonathan Ray
hiypdy59y6
public
contract
1,718,549,608,023
will-it-be-widely-understood-that-t
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
peb54cr0uj
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I disagree that they never lie. And they also strategically don’t answer questions that they clearly could so as to minimize what can be inferred from ...
Ansel
ffw69DcLpVxzF9hpapiz
public
contract
1,718,549,823,746
will-the-jelly-fish-ufo-video-authe
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
Will the jelly fish UFO video authenticity be confirmed by the pentagon or DoD by December 31, 2025
xUFRc2d9rZThfR36jIrL
null
null
null
null
a2d2fnxhqij
false
e4uEmboKKXedpcoMa6ew4f1adTn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We need to post limit orders or all add something to the liquidity pool.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
gigab0nus
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,549,855,558
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
gigab0nus
https://firebasestorage.…bb4-402507eb7110
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
530.821383
YES
6f2a573b2cbf
51cq61ntgis
false
hmqpIVl4jzgEqvqaeWRfAfYxzXG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hey got rejected from the Dartmouth waitlist, closing this now.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "t...
Faraz Ahmed
mIrNFcGgHwanYG3SvJeR
public
contract
1,718,549,936,823
i-applied-to-over-20-colleges-in-rd
FarazAhmed
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKPTkEOaUPqN-YkUOdSbf5k0fR959abxOJHko5Ja6mOwLM=s96-c
I applied to over 20 colleges in RD season as an International needing aid. Which ones would I get into?
null
null
null
null
null
gvtwdv75e9q
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "label": "Tyler31", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Universal FC ⚽
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,550,010,665
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
952.811267
YES
6f2a573b2cbf
b5l73jnmc3c
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe I had latent covid since 6/9ish but staying out all night on 6/13 finally weakened my immune system enough to make it symptomatic. Maybe my flu...
Jonathan Ray
cCKe5crr6hlARaVQvGtl
public
contract
1,718,550,204,348
will-my-followup-covid-test-be-posi
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will my follow-up covid test be positive?
null
null
null
null
null
lldncsfmzul
false
yQJobnzBK3aJFoYH6jl8Ns1M2Di2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Denmark is trash.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Hans Koch
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,550,276,719
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
HansKoch
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7hFX4KMfBUEsfWkR5M2v6T2xtOT8VaheyE7hqwyx6ryg5cw=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
null
null
295.711455
YES
69416dc5e39c
ex6j2pqqmhq
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's the sort of think Musk would do, agreed.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
nKy4ULBxQZNHPoOWUDun
public
contract
1,718,550,466,453
will-it-be-revealed-that-at-least-3
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Will it be revealed that at least 3 people with Wikipedia articles have done IQ selection on their children before 2028?
Lety0ZGd88NvVMjyaD1S
null
null
null
null
oa29ettxnqa
false
JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2", "label": "TiredCliche", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
$aturation
lHUfBELcZRdOSdLQoTwl
public
contract
1,718,550,812,028
will-lex-fridman-interview-volodymy
smokey
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c
Will Lex Fridman interview Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2024?
kg825d0vyv9
0.324925
81.566129
NO
null
sm27qqamw6
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It would be surprising if soldiers engaging in a barbaric first strike of indiscriminate mass murder of civilians & hostage taking didn’t also rape som...
Jonathan Ray
NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH
public
contract
1,718,551,199,440
will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?
null
null
null
null
null
gvpxcj8x4up
false
91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Positive", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text":...
PhilosophyBear
tr9b02u0f5
public
contract
1,718,551,305,574
what-weird-unexpected-things-will-c
PhilosophyBear
https://firebasestorage.…5e9-4830e79d2cee
What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey?
5gly5jdb1wa
null
null
null
null
4h6ilppf2ij
false
2BsWEpeUpKRqI5dJq1V4UWk0fkd2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You should try the query “Is pi^pi^pi^pi \\in \\mathbb{Z}?”. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
Arre
vfuupIy5bVrDmiKz4EJ2
public
contract
1,718,551,334,284
is-pipipipi-an-integer
Arre
https://firebasestorage.…e79-5aebf12183a8
Is pi^pi^pi^pi an integer?
0S0wLuTH4vbb2B1PDgiU
null
null
null
null
xmzx1o9y6y
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What do you mean? Equal opportunity is the whole point of socialism. Those who work harder are rewarded for it. Workers are paid a fair wage for th...
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,551,391,704
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
7sc1g6aywoj
null
621.897736
NO
5f6db2f28df6
wao6pv4vdk9
false
Q2OdR7M0WfSjfJSC0OjSchD2pYm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "25% is way too high a probability !", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "mark...
Dan Elton
dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x
public
contract
1,718,551,460,061
will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d
delton
https://firebasestorage.…3f9-de1db9ae18d6
Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds?
null
0.22
502.646428
NO
null
40nj3yk3jto
false
I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why is Mario Kart 9 a higher percentage than Mario Kart 10? Am I misinterpreting the rules?", "type": "text" } ], "type":...
Kraalnaxx
ibDBCrvI3WN9bU1GnFJO
public
contract
1,718,551,542,894
which-of-these-100-video-games-will
Kraalnaxx
https://firebasestorage.…653-9bc927b2a59d
🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (1 DONE)
null
null
null
null
null
9lsij9v43tp
false
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It seems like something is broken with how bad the prices swing. There were enough positions on the Netherlands game I wouldn’t have expected that. ", ...
Tyler
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,551,544,835
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Tyler31
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
1,651.821282
NO
69416dc5e39c
oonvp4e71f
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "label": "horse", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ansel
X9NDYkvPdFGnManadWqJ
public
contract
1,718,551,672,260
if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
null
null
447.392127
YES
22b8fe0f9869
pe8wm3zzfms
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Currently the probabilities in this market add up to 108%: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content...
M L
8kzzo9ex10
public
contract
1,718,551,678,459
free-mana-will-20-free-profit-oppor
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
FREE MANA: Will 20 free profit opportunities be shared and taken by the end of July?
null
null
null
null
null
v1eck1zwjhn
false
ZxeJ69vdBeN4qoUJ1Sf9JZjPYgF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
KiWiiU
SUe6veYYBzcETvSpf5h4
public
contract
1,718,551,725,803
will-oppenheimer-win-best-picture-a-603b8110eee5
KiWiiU
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJZvAtIf79h7TzS-fEoD5CT_JPUPi6MDOpjCGT11lh-UW0t1SJl=s96-c
Will Oppenheimer win best picture AND Bitcoin reach $70K AND Nintendo announce a new console by EOY 2024?
null
0.91
463.225474
NO
null
u3n34rdpk3i
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Jack
yqX34aCKYMoZAscZNcXQ
public
contract
1,718,551,804,907
which-publications-will-write-about
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Which publications will write about Manifest in June 2024?
null
null
918.544306
YES
ewasxs5xi8
7rrn6bas7ne
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ah, makes sense. Although if I’m not mistaken, you also submitted ‘UFOs are time travelers’?", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
Ansel
X9NDYkvPdFGnManadWqJ
public
contract
1,718,551,908,579
if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
ikb3ey0yx8n
null
447.392127
YES
22b8fe0f9869
brq4mi1apu
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The most important criteria, though, are about the future.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "...
Steve Sokolowski
CD010okuK8AWLkGaQaUT
public
contract
1,718,551,912,490
who-will-be-trumps-vp-nominee
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Who will be Trump’s VP Nominee?
7lpr7ki5qmy
null
null
null
null
xtqkk3ttpfe
false
Q2OdR7M0WfSjfJSC0OjSchD2pYm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Rubio doesn't seem to have a commanding presence though. It's not just about looks, it's how they speak and their comfort on stage or in front of came...
Dan Elton
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,718,551,972,113
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
delton
https://firebasestorage.…3f9-de1db9ae18d6
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
bnggvhdfpr4
null
8,167.576624
YES
68097f122634
p98qxmwall
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is anyone keeping track of day-to-day data?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
8WvobuEpJHRMvpCzcPK0
public
contract
1,718,551,980,915
will-june-2024-be-the-hottest-june
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record?
null
0.905335
555.342189
YES
null
qc0hlxj4by9
false
Q2OdR7M0WfSjfJSC0OjSchD2pYm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Glenn Youngkin is too low at only 3%. Trump recently met with Youngkin. Strategically, a moderate makes the most sense for Trump. Additionally, Youngki...
Dan Elton
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,718,552,094,166
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
delton
https://firebasestorage.…3f9-de1db9ae18d6
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
null
null
8,167.576624
YES
68097f122634
her0o1mqpl
false
uDqNyh5nDgf8IAu3nv2v2DD7Q743
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What is the resolution criteria here?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dmitry Okunev
bZos9A2Uk8vkqpyQgYwL
public
contract
1,718,552,129,811
do-oneway-functions-exist
DmitryOkunev
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyfJlIXVF2dpdc-Xvx_Z1TmFz2kh56YKbw6i64iCGI=s96-c
Do One-Way Functions exist?
null
null
null
null
null
l4x9ja9qwte
false
sICXNtXt2dZ14BnDqkmbVisozZu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ZxeJ69vdBeN4qoUJ1Sf9JZjPYgF2", "label": "KiWiiU", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jony
SUe6veYYBzcETvSpf5h4
public
contract
1,718,552,166,826
will-oppenheimer-win-best-picture-a-603b8110eee5
Jony
https://firebasestorage.…32f-ac199fffc968
Will Oppenheimer win best picture AND Bitcoin reach $70K AND Nintendo announce a new console by EOY 2024?
v1eck1zwjhn
0.91
3,614.380695
YES
null
649p5zmuc6j
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No, the spirit of the question is attempting to ask the question \"At time of market creation, is there intelligent non-human life orginating from eart...
Elliot Davies
dm0p41bsnt
public
contract
1,718,552,460,047
complex-communication-with-a-nonhum
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050
rfqcgkwwvq
null
null
null
null
pz5gn2gz6fr
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In retrospect, base rate in Open Relationships is probably much lower than monogamous relationships ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Elliot Davies
rzE0Lgqg1bMaylY7Ry0y
public
contract
1,718,552,678,341
will-i-be-in-a-relationship-with-m
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I be in a relationship with M****** on July 31 of 2024
CpwWZ5q2fNUyBGNddKjA
null
null
null
null
wsz5t8621jg
false
4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I like it. I think the multi-choice and numeric ones were literally the same except for the UI. But this one makes some bets more or less leveraged, ri...
Johnny Ten-Numbers
2pOaWvsuFpEf8dLgBL8d
public
contract
1,718,552,745,707
what-will-bidens-approval-rating-at
1941159478
https://firebasestorage.…5d6-609a1a4230e5
What will Biden's approval rating at 538 be on 6/30?
ewa0utq90c8
null
26.775535
NO
mnnaxex4hy
7ehezff34ds
false
mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What happens if the plan changes such that Artemis 3 is no longer planned to be a moon landing (which would get delayed to Artemis 4 or later)?", ...
Simon Westlake
Bts0idu6vXJnJR2JrInZ
public
contract
1,718,552,903,980
how-many-rocket-launches-will-be-ne
SimonWestlake
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c
How many rocket launches will be needed for the Artemis III human moon-landing mission?
null
null
314.489358
YES
dd24167b8c11
hojl1u0zoho
false
bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes but traditionally cohabitation only occurs if the opposing side is able to secure a parliamentary majority coalition. Even if they were to repeat t...
Eric Bolton
xfKNVBbOlXuuYUg3VqXu
public
contract
1,718,552,909,138
who-will-succed-to-gabriel-attal-as
EricBolton
https://firebasestorage.…cef-e6d468df0f51
Who will succed to Gabriel Attal as a Prime Minister of France consecutively to the Parliament dissolution ?
tcsjupcx8n
null
78.106685
NO
z0rj63z75n
foc91gkbkaf
false
OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I tried this with GPT-4o (which is free on ChatGPT now) and it gave the correct answer 2/3 times. The last time it talked about the Hall effect for a w...
Caleb Biddulph
uPKyiKzHz73ypVSzJGHd
public
contract
1,718,553,244,155
will-chatgpt-get-the-monty-hall-eff
CDBiddulph
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c
Will ChatGPT get the Monty *Hall effect* problem correct on Dec. 1, 2024?
null
0.392199
919.620149
YES
null
2kimev6ph83
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What was the pivot date? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Christopher Randles
RULPK0g10L9sTwUBqj4z
public
contract
1,718,553,339,331
one-year-after-the-pivot-will-over
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Six months after the pivot, will 50% of legacy Manifold users report they like the site more than before the changes?
null
null
null
null
null
q23wg20j5ci
false
mrWm2AuHgjSoVgeYNvyCpUVcvpm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "as much as i like kizaru they probably gonna be sitting out the rest of egghead til its over sadly", "type": "text" } ], ...
Abraham
biXq0Tl6I185ivohSgoV
public
contract
1,718,553,649,575
will-kizaru-betraydefect-the-marine
Abraham2a3c
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7_tb_QD4TPXfXyzHc5i54_w1wuVUUR9Y4ONcVNMiZ=s96-c
Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?
l9k8qtq3smn
0.670798
2.00239
YES
null
0hclscqksyss
false
Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "time zone?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
vibhav
irsqMLlgaO9LqfLqWrpI
public
contract
1,718,553,753,705
will-this-market-have-an-odd-number-2113b753541d
vibhav
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c
Will this market have an odd number of traders by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
te6se1ju23
false
ZxeJ69vdBeN4qoUJ1Sf9JZjPYgF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
KiWiiU
Wr4MSYCH2nX25GfFTLbC
public
contract
1,718,554,106,720
will-nintendo-release-a-successor-t-43026d71cdfe
KiWiiU
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJZvAtIf79h7TzS-fEoD5CT_JPUPi6MDOpjCGT11lh-UW0t1SJl=s96-c
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of February 2025?
null
0.319402
128.263929
NO
null
10q4avt3nam
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "never mind apparently txn fees/traders dont contribute toward upgrading market tiers, only boosting/subsidizing does", "type": "text" ...
chris (strutheo)
61z2aj6ko1
public
contract
1,718,554,442,705
market-quest-what-tier-will-the-tra
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
💎Market Quest: What tier will traders level this market up to by the end of the year?
null
null
133.079669
NO
lhkvc8slc7
62ve07i6ag
false
wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He said this at the end of his speech yesterday ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": nu...
Charlie Bauer
LXrTdCOO1uoi1tUo30V4
public
contract
1,718,554,588,025
what-will-donald-trump-promise-to-d
CharlieBauer
https://storage.googleap…Mt2zdsjlg8k1.png
What will Donald Trump promise to do in June 2024? (free response)
null
null
1,082.437848
YES
bz2vn88r9y
bg74bym9ieh
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this would be solid reasoning if trump was a remotely strategic person", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Savior of Plant
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,718,554,659,815
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
qc0hlxj4by9
null
19,771.360431
YES
59badb9482e3
8q33jfpq965
false
wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If there was an option for “he’s the best person currently alive” I would have picked that ", "type": "text" } ], "type":...
Charlie Bauer
l2k3t9ejp1
public
contract
1,718,554,772,292
which-of-the-following-is-true-abou
CharlieBauer
https://storage.googleap…Mt2zdsjlg8k1.png
Which of the following is true about Elon Musk?
null
null
null
null
null
9moa20oij4p
false
yQJobnzBK3aJFoYH6jl8Ns1M2Di2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Denmark is not even famous for their trolls, that is how trash they are.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Hans Koch
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,554,928,446
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
HansKoch
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7hFX4KMfBUEsfWkR5M2v6T2xtOT8VaheyE7hqwyx6ryg5cw=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
lldncsfmzul
null
732.396131
YES
69416dc5e39c
j75srxje48
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Universal FC ⚽
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,555,086,544
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
952.811267
YES
6f2a573b2cbf
1ssfzjqhq08j
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Right, and remember his dainty sip from an even daintier water bottle? Disqualifying, in our age of post-modern politics:", "type": "text" ...
Al Quinn
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,718,555,218,419
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
bnggvhdfpr4
null
247.11735
NO
93a1f2f817df
3dikb877c6l
false
fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "When I wrote this question I was interested in both 1) and 2) . So as long as the option to give to \"earplugs in Bangladesh against noise pollution\" ...
Lorenzo
Lt81Vx5fVyOEKw01sM3B
public
contract
1,718,555,304,317
will-givewells-recommendations-age
Lorenzo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhzcpHjwZ67O8HADuUYEMWdxEt94d8LT4MtPpRpc6o=s96-c
Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?
dxrc37zzckw
null
null
null
null
9hojppo071u
false
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will that be enough to fix the problem? If so, I’ll pay half (can i still send mana??) ", "type": "text" }, { "attr...
Tyler
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,555,420,060
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Tyler31
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
1,163.844093
NO
69416dc5e39c
i5na3wawjki
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mNU1f9Cb2cfYsYFGHdwniANPhZd2", "label": "Maxaa4a1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Joshua
w9qxj1f8oz
public
contract
1,718,555,658,626
will-joe-biden-be-replaced-as-the-d
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Joe Biden be replaced as the 2024 Democratic candidate?
null
null
null
null
null
s9h6a0i88c
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it currently seems to be plus, I didn't do anything, is that enough liquidity or did you want more?", "type": "text" } ], ...
jackson polack
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,555,751,129
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
null
null
null
ac46lpd8wbj
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "label": "Tyler31", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Universal FC ⚽
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,555,966,726
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
952.811267
YES
6f2a573b2cbf
n15weiy6ut
false
H9WsRqp0riS8Q4oUOvwYptkQwcP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
Earl Kelly
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,556,102,374
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
EarlKelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYce6r9qcA6KpyiKEz3Co6Vx_SzjlJr3gV8HLI3=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
lldncsfmzul
null
null
null
null
nbo6icdmdnf
false
H9WsRqp0riS8Q4oUOvwYptkQwcP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "label": "10thOfficial", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Earl Kelly
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,718,556,237,092
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
EarlKelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYce6r9qcA6KpyiKEz3Co6Vx_SzjlJr3gV8HLI3=s96-c
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
644.997354
YES
eca0885814f3
7ql7z5eicir
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "that’s not completely mysterious, maybe people don’t have better / more certain options ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Ansel
b2v3iudszf
public
contract
1,718,556,300,635
resolves-yes-on-jan-1-2029
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029
w72olt8ike
null
null
null
null
ljd2sk7bu4
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Plus literally just means '10k or higher liquidity' it's the exact same liquidity pool measurement as before tiers", "type": "text" }...
jackson polack
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,556,306,273
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
null
null
null
gpf3v8th567
false
H9WsRqp0riS8Q4oUOvwYptkQwcP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "label": "10thOfficial", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Earl Kelly
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,718,556,308,630
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
EarlKelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYce6r9qcA6KpyiKEz3Co6Vx_SzjlJr3gV8HLI3=s96-c
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
644.997354
YES
eca0885814f3
5h3s2jb77i4
false
n1ZFS428CKRTVF5xiAJJHsfGfss2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This week's episode was garbage, lmao. The entire thing was just \"omg, who's it gonna be, who's gonna be the big bad\", and there was no emotional ten...
Najawin
dsutqw2s9x
public
contract
1,718,556,416,292
will-see-description-appear-in-the
Najawin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIeT2AGuhQ3RJ_aXRU0h-DIVlDI88KHt7zuAy_NJ6l5=s96-c
Will [see description] appear in the Season finale of Doctor Who?
mqsuys9u8p9
0.426157
211.048987
YES
null
9mkvqx88915
false
RqRkNuiib7U9HjfyyhiKcPwN0Z83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why does that mean it should resolve as N/A?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew Hebb
whWcO1JAt1tVafY15XSs
public
contract
1,718,556,506,619
will-googles-gemini-beat-gpt4-in-te
AndrewHebb
https://firebasestorage.…460-d13def83d032
Will Google's Gemini beat GPT4 in terms of capabilities on release?
1q6uz31wohu
0.220404
3,100.131998
NO
null
omhaez56m1n
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "liquidity adding for mc markets seems broken lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,556,634,463
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
null
null
null
dhhscph004f
false
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Lol I was hoping it was the case. How can we fix?!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tyler
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,556,687,507
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Tyler31
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
1,119.061003
NO
e5e3f852d31c
r1rnsg95n7n
false
H9WsRqp0riS8Q4oUOvwYptkQwcP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "label": "UniversalFC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Earl Kelly
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,556,732,347
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
EarlKelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYce6r9qcA6KpyiKEz3Co6Vx_SzjlJr3gV8HLI3=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
507.246453
NO
69416dc5e39c
aqgy2g8ml3
false
e4uEmboKKXedpcoMa6ew4f1adTn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "H9WsRqp0riS8Q4oUOvwYptkQwcP2", "label": "EarlKelly", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
gigab0nus
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,718,556,949,165
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
gigab0nus
https://firebasestorage.…bb4-402507eb7110
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches
c0m2j1u29q6
null
530.821383
YES
6f2a573b2cbf
pn4n4g04kkg
false
sTPfQiHMUHYtccdM1yL4LqW2BxQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's fine, simply pointing out that the question title seems different than the criteria. ", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
Håkon Egset Harnes
Lt81Vx5fVyOEKw01sM3B
public
contract
1,718,556,960,000
will-givewells-recommendations-age
HakonEgsetHarnes
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtestNl4QHWmNiT0lMlj8r39Q4VL3g0qAVjfGEwDy2Vjsg=s96-c
Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?
dxrc37zzckw
0.264378
211.250715
NO
null
qq8hht9i6q9
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If I'm reading the ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Evan
W1bfcM4m77fSemB0h9rh
public
contract
1,718,556,970,387
will-inflation-in-argentina-for-202
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
Will inflation in Argentina for 2024 be...
null
null
3,068.977571
NO
docbg4b4wc
ji2z56lcaeo
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this is waaaaaaay better", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ben Shindel
lv41nqg73m
public
contract
1,718,557,006,872
will-rock-paper-scissors-poker-appe
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024?
c33t10r0r5v
null
null
null
null
lx8b22tweom
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
stefanie
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,718,557,020,824
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
null
null
1,663.517177
YES
dfe86c906f7a
vtfdtk1jfm
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I feel like you could give each player three tokens (with rock, paper, and scissors on them) and have them slide to the center and flip over at the sam...
Ben Shindel
lv41nqg73m
public
contract
1,718,557,048,283
will-rock-paper-scissors-poker-appe
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
grkkakd86pk
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "no Ben! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
lv41nqg73m
public
contract
1,718,557,085,116
will-rock-paper-scissors-poker-appe
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024?
vtfdtk1jfm
0.120597
145.843122
YES
null
l6pxwzia39h
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks 🧡 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,718,557,118,051
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
lx8b22tweom
null
0
YES
8e9d07a81f93
16n1hg41drp
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "convenient time for the site to freeze and reject my bet of course 🙃 looks like it got in partially - happy father's day to me lol", "type":...
stefanie
6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf
public
contract
1,718,557,187,855
what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
lx8b22tweom
null
1,663.517177
YES
dfe86c906f7a
ut9wckc82y
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "the tokens could be really cool", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ben Shindel
lv41nqg73m
public
contract
1,718,557,205,162
will-rock-paper-scissors-poker-appe
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024?
vtfdtk1jfm
null
null
null
null
h8didwjrae
false
XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Oa8lKJXI9AZWPV2welD0bq6wzng1", "label": "axr", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jacy
g1xAEepbmskkLd90vSWb
public
contract
1,718,557,207,208
will-gpt2chatbot-rank-the-highest-i
Jacy
https://firebasestorage.…73f-503ef6cf6c81
Will gpt2-chatbot rank the highest in chatbot arena by the end of May 2024?
null
0.939129
1,272.683545
YES
null
oqifh2cwjf
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "you could even have your own personalized set of tokens", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
Ben Shindel
lv41nqg73m
public
contract
1,718,557,219,310
will-rock-paper-scissors-poker-appe
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024?
vtfdtk1jfm
null
null
null
null