id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
oy3fuapbs3 | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1793554758923588029",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Can this one resolve NO? Or does it need to wait for candidate lists to be finalised?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1 | public | contract | 1,716,453,305,481 | what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene | Noit | What will be true about the next UK general election? | null | null | 2,112.864872 | NO | 3c70154b905e | |
3yib1aymdzv | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since this might come down to the day: the actual moment of lift-off counts as launch. If they launch on the same second you're all getting a free cookie.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mqrius | C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy | public | contract | 1,716,453,963,794 | will-starliner-fly-before-starship | Mqrius | Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4? | null | 0.363893 | 1,157.603535 | YES | null | |
s3otam60tq | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "uwx0b9vg1f",
"label": "Carlosab83",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Even that one has issues. There's 0% chance a ETH will be approved today on the 23rd, as the S-1 filing would also need to be approved, which might take weeks to months.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Erik Bjäreholt | C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef | public | contract | 1,716,454,017,829 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024? | uwx0b9vg1f | 0.15742 | 0 | YES | null |
kz4nv3ckjpg | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Farage says he won’t run:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/23/nigel-farage-says-he-will-not-stand-in-uk-general-election-reform",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/23/nigel-farage-says-he-will-not-stand-in-uk-general-election-reform",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But he’s a known liar, so I’m not going to bet this market down any lower than 20% just yet…",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Simon Grayson | skdZO536AdXDFIHG9KDd | public | contract | 1,716,454,043,503 | will-nigel-farage-stand-for-westmin | SimonGrayson | Will Nigel Farage stand for Westminster at the election? | null | 0.52451 | 1,426.107779 | NO | null | |
mmhcjqnwk6p | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "New Keynesian beauty contest just dropped",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,454,046,371 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 81.226261 | YES | 8f53e6bfa11d |
42eiqjiy4fo | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Poorly worded version (\"before\") of the same question.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SamE/will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Erik Bjäreholt | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,454,067,437 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | null | 0.576947 | 960.866988 | NO | null |
ier5pibc2yg | false | Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n3vfyyvqk6s",
"label": "SteveSokolowski",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "-\"family got scammed\"-",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "mate i had a peek at that website about your dad and it's really quite bizarre. you've posted addresses and financial records and doxxed your whole family. that's not generally a healthy way to handle divorce and family stuff. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "as one random guy on the internet to another random guy on the internet, and in the most genuine way possible: please take care of yourself. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "-\"fraudulent activity\"-",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "most technologies get used for fraud. it's remarkably not unique to crypto. check fraud, card fraud, romance scams, cayman island jeweler scams, covid loan fraud, enron, spacs, etc. all did their fraud just fine before crypto came around. i'm sure you'd agree those are true statements but you would probably respond with: \"yes but those things have utility.\" ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "your argument, i think, is less about fraud and more about the belief that btc has no utility. but it isn't up to you (or the government) to decide what has utility. i think horses are dumb and people do scams with horses but that doesn't mean that horses should be banned by government decree. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "if you think it has no utility and everybody else is playing a game of greater fool and you're right and they're wrong and the government should ban it because tether is going to blow up and you're basically michael burry but for crypto:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "just. go. short.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bob Snodgrass | C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef | public | contract | 1,716,454,211,225 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a | BobSnodgrass | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024? | eirwygstybn | 0.15742 | 715.587976 | NO | null | |
n7hljxlr9nf | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mmhcjqnwk6p",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " There are NEVER ENOUGH.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,454,240,452 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | Bayesian | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | mmhcjqnwk6p | null | 1,210.464878 | YES | 3ef25a41deb3 | |
885b7jztbya | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Interesting market!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My first reaction is that the chance must be pretty close to 50/50, so there’s value on NO when other markets make it around 15% that the debate won’t go ahead (and this market would resolve NO).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Simon Grayson | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,454,254,973 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | SimonGrayson | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | null | 50 | 797.531077 | NO | null | |
shbp455oq9 | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bguxlt4mzxa",
"label": "OlegEterevsky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " it's actually pretty rare for them to be hallucinated, and you can easily cross-check what they give on different occasions to different prompts to make sure it's consistent.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Can I take from this that the reason you haven't resolved this is that you don't think the prompt I posted is real? You can see it yourself, word for word identical, by just asking GPT-4o. As I noted below, it's unusually cooperative in this respect, so you shouldn't need any particular skill at prompting. (I just re-checked it and it hasn't changed.) Literally just ask it for the system prompt and it will give it to you word for word.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Muga Sofer | sQKgoaQEZayieNoPb4ht | public | contract | 1,716,454,340,102 | will-we-discover-that-the-prompt-us | MugaSofer | Will we discover that the prompt used by ChatGPT-4o on launch day includes some mention of the movie "Her"? | bguxlt4mzxa | 0.03866 | 364.931337 | NO | null | |
ud01w3l4oaf | false | JuPdylq620YYzGYlRvqYE7MbbKA3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1793327786087661624",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's been a nice ride fellas....",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kristian Anders$n | te9qE8ghdkekVmxa1D87 | public | contract | 1,716,455,224,129 | will-fauci-be-indicted | KristianAndersen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLfCER3HQfMxYpT36bgM9yVTL_16IFTq27qzThy_6nS=s96-c | Will Fauci be indicted? | null | null | null | null | null |
1y7jwr6o5rn | false | R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The NRC has accepted the construction permit application, they have cleared the first hurdle. The review took around half the time of the NRCs internal target of 60 days, so that was also positive. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It isn't clear sailing yet, near the end of the acceptance letter the NRC says:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " \"Several topics continue to require additional clarity or information and will likely require an increased focus by USO and the NRC staff to ensure a timely completion of the review. The NRC staff will also take these issues into consideration when developing the review schedule.\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://adamswebsearch2.nrc.gov/webSearch2/main.jsp?AccessionNumber=ML24135A109",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://adamswebsearch2.nrc.gov/webSearch2/main.jsp?AccessionNumber=ML24135A109",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bernie B | b19QcouZW4zCn37Vty6D | public | contract | 1,716,455,425,669 | will-the-us-nrc-approve-a-terrapowe | BernieB | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c | Will the US NRC approve a TerraPower construction permit application for Kemmerer Power Station Unit 1 by Sept 10 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
tgq98b8cyn | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jiv4n6j4hde",
"label": "jacksonpolack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Lumina's CEO's terrible reaction to the blog post is more compelling than the blog post itself: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://trevorklee.substack.com/p/luminas-legal-threats-and-my-about",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://trevorklee.substack.com/p/luminas-legal-threats-and-my-about",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"your false assertions that we're an unclean product have hurt my CMO’s feelings\" ?!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": "I’m putting the post about Lumina Probiotics back up, now edited to avoid any possible threats of libel. To explain, here’s a timeline of my last 72 hours. 1. I get an email Friday night from Aaron Silverbook, founder of Lumina, that says only “Hey Trevor; want to do a call?”. He follows up on Saturday afternoon.",
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "0966dbc3-0056-4965-a2a7-f3cfb1b6f93e",
"image": "https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1200,h_600,c_fill,f_jpg,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F854f5565-a5ba-456e-a589-10cb54e257ce_500x753.jpeg",
"inputKey": "edit comment tgq98b8cyn",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "Lumina's legal threats and my about-face",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://trevorklee.substack.com/p/luminas-legal-threats-and-my-about"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | M5pwgOxn4vS7U92uMxqi | public | contract | 1,716,455,432,466 | lantern-bioworks-lumina-probiotic-d | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities] | tjmls4puvr | null | null | null | null |
sd5peeb9q5s | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FY6j94yMqIu.12?alt=media&token=b36e5ef6-65a0-4a88-b830-0c28dd548bf5",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " bitcoin is now ~70k which is almost double the price I sold at 🤡 so this question sadly resolves ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "Yes, I regret selling my Bitcoin",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Soli ꩜ | WMsa0eVAHfXT63gnHrVv | public | contract | 1,716,455,633,288 | will-i-regret-selling-all-my-bitcoi | Soli | Will I regret selling all my bitcoin 6 months from now (on the 22.05.2024)? | null | 0.974363 | 1,047.321894 | NO | null | |
01xb8agakbvp | false | MvqOKpIzrxcVaKMi7wk57faPpaB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "o9z4zhbcv9",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media4.giphy.com/media/qd8nMlkQOkGk0/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1ca8xmtkfbyt7x1p8ogonal64ck50i5m13krpiluzvf&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Agent 117 | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,716,455,889,151 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | Agent117 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKa_wdfXfEQk-yYd5YfjH0gDe-MfeuPWuAaXr9KlCc9Mc7Q1A=s96-c | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | rp5cvs56ie8 | null | null | null | null |
zajd0bdvtwm | false | MvqOKpIzrxcVaKMi7wk57faPpaB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "01xb8agakbvp",
"label": "Agent117",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media3.giphy.com/media/p4pWzctMrCBfLFgycF/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1cau5ucq0zr1ewnv284b6jnywk8a1sk5rllb7f34zze&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media4.giphy.com/media/qjSxTWJxqH4YDuIrOs/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1cau5ucq0zr1ewnv284b6jnywk8a1sk5rllb7f34zze&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "Video gif. Two ladybugs mating on a leaf. One ladybug is perched on the other and it looks like it's shaking its body side to side.",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media0.giphy.com/media/Saavhnp9YYN7a/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1ca5bld9jvhm8g8pzodzacutkij0ahi5xnidgyrf9y6&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media0.giphy.com/media/SxDRg26fPfzFK/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1ca7k6jfxmzn9rgvy3ttnrn37sb8nd3bqybz9ifrvvr&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media2.giphy.com/media/4jolM1P4VKzaBqtTKV/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1ca9nnu3v45057t2xazpogwanqder1g6fctv067nmj5&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ICJTd6fnXcMsRSj6LrkDcQq7YSV2",
"label": "Jim",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133",
"label": "jim",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6wDrCHlb3GYFmwGA4ciV4ZyHOKz2",
"label": "TameraLanham",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2",
"label": "barak",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Suck it…. faggots",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Agent 117 | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,716,456,030,515 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | Agent117 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKa_wdfXfEQk-yYd5YfjH0gDe-MfeuPWuAaXr9KlCc9Mc7Q1A=s96-c | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | rp5cvs56ie8 | null | null | null | null |
1c04y21c3xe | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zajd0bdvtwm",
"label": "Agent117",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " a few questions: ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why was I tagged? What does any of this have to do with me? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why are you using homophobic slurs?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,716,456,389,878 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | rp5cvs56ie8 | null | null | null | null |
pfx2vb3kw7b | false | 94MnlG25Mtg8UHtQdFODRsQoBDi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market should resolve YES. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "On 31 March (2024), Bulgaria and Romania become Schengen members",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ": the Schengen rules will apply in both Member States including on issuing Schengen visas and controls at the internal air and sea borders will be lifted.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "European Commission: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_1722#:~:text=On%2031%20March%2C%20Bulgaria%20and,sea%20borders%20will%20be%20lifted.",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Bulgaria and Romania join the Schengen area",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | damin17 | hQ8SAjWwrPkmhwra3RMA | public | contract | 1,716,456,398,204 | will-bulgaria-join-schengen-before | damin17 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1lQW6irJ-pNeXcgnr0y5NJ-B_H8NFoCHNmcTFvla8=s96-c | Will Bulgaria join Schengen before 2026? | null | 0.891141 | 33.038863 | YES | null |
yd18apnz3ke | false | 94MnlG25Mtg8UHtQdFODRsQoBDi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market should resolve YES. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "On 31 March (2024), Bulgaria and Romania become Schengen members",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ": the Schengen rules will apply in both Member States including on issuing Schengen visas and controls at the internal air and sea borders will be lifted.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "European Commission: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_1722#:~:text=On%2031%20March%2C%20Bulgaria%20and,sea%20borders%20will%20be%20lifted.",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Bulgaria and Romania join the Schengen area",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | damin17 | tfyO6hmDE01EWJsw0KEi | public | contract | 1,716,456,430,630 | will-romania-join-schengen-before-2 | damin17 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1lQW6irJ-pNeXcgnr0y5NJ-B_H8NFoCHNmcTFvla8=s96-c | Will Romania join Schengen before 2026? | null | 0.934852 | 30.416667 | YES | null |
1mwh6sbr3og | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How old are you today? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Rana G | prcMauO7vcULNj5aOmEo | public | contract | 1,716,456,651,708 | will-i-live-to-be-200-years-old | RanaG | Will I live to be 200 years old? | null | null | null | null | null | |
uqp8ik1pklf | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looks like he'll leave. I mean, he beat Pogi, so UAE has to do it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/cirogazzetta/status/1793510179792994426",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/cirogazzetta/status/1793510179792994426",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lion | L5lz1hlm8OUowI1R49zP | public | contract | 1,716,456,886,939 | which-riders-will-be-announced-for-f81abcc0953d | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Which riders will be announced for INEOS Grenadiers for the 2025 season? | null | null | 1,024.390244 | YES | dd0dcd62242f |
96ukgd7cpgm | false | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7s17hxf8x93",
"label": "ErikBjareholt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Exactly, it's funny because polymarket has a similar market. You should check out the comments, people have been going wild about this exact issue you described. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I expect a lot of headline to come out: \"eth etf approved\". But then technically it can only be approved after the s-1. So it will cause lot of confusion probably for the average gambler.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Niel S | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,457,303,088 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | NielS | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | 7s17hxf8x93 | 0.41 | 650.793294 | NO | null |
ze2fnrwjw1 | false | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7s17hxf8x93",
"label": "ErikBjareholt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I hope the market creator won't rug this market and be fair, i see he bet yes. Is there a way to involve some mod or something to resolve this market in case that happens? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Niel S | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,457,574,011 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | NielS | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | 7s17hxf8x93 | 0.41 | 726.526736 | NO | null |
ho4usbl3sx | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves NO if no evidence as of EOY 2024?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nat | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,457,598,361 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | null | null | null | null | null |
kk8bvlvl1f | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I would say HTMX has plenty hype (attention, stars, demos), but very little actual traction (usage).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I notice I've been hearing much less about it over the last few months, suggesting lack of traction.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Erik Bjäreholt | 6FthPZkfHC8mmA9iODKb | public | contract | 1,716,457,825,884 | will-htmx-gain-significant-traction | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | Will HTMX gain significant traction before the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
8ppmslua8os | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ze2fnrwjw1",
"label": "NielS",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I would certainly ask a mod to step in if so.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Erik Bjäreholt | 781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh | public | contract | 1,716,457,867,699 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024? | 7s17hxf8x93 | 0.40033 | 960.866988 | NO | null |
xkupzllhu8p | false | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves yES",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Martin Modrák | 6GX8dxzqNVb2HjwKMjLg | public | contract | 1,716,457,910,958 | will-slovakian-pm-robert-fico-survi | MartinModrak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | Will Slovakian PM Robert Fico survive the assassination attempt? | null | 0.989845 | -0 | YES | null |
81wnwm6do4j | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "😂😂",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Soli ꩜ | SpBvnRkaEkWCsELUvPhj | public | contract | 1,716,459,007,947 | does-joe-biden-have-significant-men | Soli | Does Joe Biden have significant mental disability | null | null | null | null | null | |
obzkxymdny | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a09nav1sufm",
"label": "NivlacM",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " i think the tempo is speeding up around floors 14 and 15.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It starts to look the extended time might not be needed.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | zv3sghtI0iLwculPD6V1 | public | contract | 1,716,459,044,503 | how-many-hours-will-it-take-wirtual | KongoLandwalker | How many hours will it take Wirtual to beat Deep Dip 2? | v3ahdk262fc | null | 62.155623 | YES | cc3cfe6e5d22 | |
cw7oprfxcol | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looks good to me. Any objections? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Benjamin Ikuta | nIoTJTks4x5lSQNAw6Z9 | public | contract | 1,716,459,139,885 | will-voyager-1-successfully-resume | benjaminIkuta | Will Voyager 1 successfully resume scientific transmission? | 3qtrli53dvs | null | null | null | null | |
ys6yatoun58 | false | y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2",
"label": "IsaacKing",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 7 days have passed since the price dropped below 90%, can be resolved now.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJrmV0Jr2Ci.06?alt=media&token=aa190089-f4d0-453a-8ba2-a9dca93890b2",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bair | F8M1CZhaRzzwh2BJhTqd | public | contract | 1,716,459,372,705 | will-eliezer-yudkowskys-150000-ufo-8a4f6c7e8e2a | Bair | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below 90% by the end of 2024? | null | 0.896983 | 17,581.322512 | YES | null |
wphiaevba67 | false | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The election is on the 4th of July, so we will probably know by the next day, unless Galloway doesn't stand, in which case we'll know sooner. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ponti Min | 9P9clKOYf7Tn0ZzRqiCU | public | contract | 1,716,459,772,285 | will-george-galloway-be-elected-as | PontiMin | Will George Galloway be elected as an MP at the next general election? | null | 0.320788 | 18.500068 | YES | null | |
pamzyx075a | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "shbp455oq9",
"label": "MugaSofer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I haven't resolved it because I'm not the author of the question. :)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I agree that GPT-4o in particular replies with its prompt very consistently, so it's probably genuine.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Oleg Eterevsky | sQKgoaQEZayieNoPb4ht | public | contract | 1,716,459,857,188 | will-we-discover-that-the-prompt-us | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | Will we discover that the prompt used by ChatGPT-4o on launch day includes some mention of the movie "Her"? | bguxlt4mzxa | null | null | null | null |
xqrz8sggbad | false | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Given that manifold have markets for every UK constituency, it would be possible for them to total up all those markets and give their prediction for how many seats each party will win. They could do this every day.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ponti Min | Iv8fcNBVqPpWtYYkOB1A | public | contract | 1,716,460,238,078 | how-many-seats-will-the-labour-part-83e146bac5d4 | PontiMin | UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win? | null | null | null | null | null | |
8f0h2b1rvcs | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We’re on vacation the rest of this week starting at noon today so unless he has to come home earlier than that, Week 2 will resolve NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Glidden | tzw89Y25bB9gNETZvUBk | public | contract | 1,716,460,434,409 | when-will-my-son-bring-home-his-2nd | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | When will my son bring home his 2nd sickness from daycare? | null | null | null | null | null |
pfrnvxxtcj | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " embassy have finished processing visa. Passport will be collected by courier this evening. Potentially available for collection tomorrow morning. If not then we have a long weekend holiday until Tuesday. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Rana G | fykEZi2rlnefDLgto4Wc | public | contract | 1,716,460,507,552 | will-ranag-get-her-us-visa-approved | RanaG | will @RanaG get her US visa approved before her travel date on May 30? | null | null | null | null | null | |
6mw7wtugz0k | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Reform leader Richard Tice is standing here.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1793588681686884576",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1793588681686884576",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | Dg65t0iMagw37ACIBARy | public | contract | 1,716,460,521,916 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-2aeaed32e06f | Noit | UK General Election: Which party will win in Boston and Skegness? | null | null | null | null | null | |
33iiyzghp5d | false | sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Where is cancelled?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Carlos | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,716,460,591,566 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Carlosab83 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 77,682.981611 | YES | 088d6b2862b1 |
gt7nrny8wyo | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ^ ?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | OlQZe4z96uTPJJgpZkqy | public | contract | 1,716,460,622,939 | game-the-last-person-to-bet-on-this | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | [Game] The last person to bet on this receives 1000 Mana - Will the last trade be a Yes? [No Bots] | m25n6ltxx4b | 0.780009 | 393.875948 | YES | null |
sgwwh5wwevq | false | sNwe94NAjSbhu1H1nJdUFBynW712 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s3otam60tq",
"label": "ErikBjareholt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " First step approved is an approval?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Carlos | C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef | public | contract | 1,716,460,683,295 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a | Carlosab83 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyJZsUdw5JLIMzZvOs7_0V0KC5Od5MDjr_BJ5fFW3w=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024? | uwx0b9vg1f | 0.186091 | 916.491945 | YES | null |
hwc65qt18ia | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Us withdrawal basically doomed a whole country. I cannot imagine that not being part of history books.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | aoFVJLgtMkMsc3HHVIwD | public | contract | 1,716,461,218,286 | what-news-stories-of-the-2020s-will | KongoLandwalker | What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s? | null | null | 92.47992 | YES | 4449efc2a711 | |
rdn9xbqyut | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sgwwh5wwevq",
"label": "Carlosab83",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Approval of the 19b-4, not of the ETF itself.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Erik Bjäreholt | C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef | public | contract | 1,716,461,392,577 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024? | uwx0b9vg1f | 0.186091 | 0 | YES | null |
vyw7lhdj1es | false | oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'll get the Galaxy Watch6 (refurbished, €121) this weekend if no one provides convincing counterarguments. Feel free to buy \"no\" if you have any to profit from that. :)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Milli | wsQdgofM3hP56iAMzX00 | public | contract | 1,716,461,395,674 | which-smartwatch-will-i-buy | Milli | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4 | Which smartwatch will I buy? | null | null | 972.375712 | YES | 3d310b12dae5 |
19zl5kf7yfa | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gt7nrny8wyo",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " i can finally resolve this market. I sent you 1000 Mana 🏆.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I will resolve this market Yes, since the last qualified trader ( ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ") bet yes. Any objections? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Soli ꩜ | OlQZe4z96uTPJJgpZkqy | public | contract | 1,716,461,477,472 | game-the-last-person-to-bet-on-this | Soli | [Game] The last person to bet on this receives 1000 Mana - Will the last trade be a Yes? [No Bots] | m25n6ltxx4b | 0.780009 | 21.383262 | NO | null | |
hyx1rprmd3f | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "19zl5kf7yfa",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thank you very much, good fun market.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | OlQZe4z96uTPJJgpZkqy | public | contract | 1,716,461,659,438 | game-the-last-person-to-bet-on-this | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | [Game] The last person to bet on this receives 1000 Mana - Will the last trade be a Yes? [No Bots] | m25n6ltxx4b | 0.780009 | 393.875948 | YES | null |
6z73gl796os | false | krCVG3NICjMBTShuh2qFBfxjJh53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Another limit order up for the Lib Dems if anyone feels really good about Ed what's-his-face's chances...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tom Offer | SEQyattwFhw3qukWSl8v | public | contract | 1,716,461,715,996 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 | Tomoffer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYixst_qSqIc7yL9LzODpTkqwwZD_6YEFduz-Up=s96-c | UK General Election - which party will win the second most seats? | null | null | 1,493.558544 | NO | 1b323f311a69 |
8bhassanhgy | false | XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "iexrbek587b",
"label": "AndrewHartman",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Came here to say this. I had a few hours of training with the Bastardsword, but still couldn't beat someone with a spear. It is a matter of Range. The spearman gets to strike first and if the swordbearer doesn't know how to parry (which requires training) he is dead before he can strike.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Schwabilismus | 0yfadqRVPkDwINzQmX70 | public | contract | 1,716,461,863,525 | does-an-untrained-combatant-with-a | Schwabilismus | Does an untrained combatant with a spear beat one with a sword? | zspi64c9zki | 0.55 | 2,196.70001 | YES | null | |
cpcpolltlv | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You can now filter by Prize Markets in Browse",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Glidden | eVsjvwi4WoP0VUyY0owL | public | contract | 1,716,461,973,670 | let-me-know-when-theres-been-a-chan | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | Alert us when Manifold has changed | null | null | null | null | null |
qrdti002akr | false | XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FN0b9RI4NRN.jpg?alt=media&token=c6c9ec81-a5dc-4926-b001-855254e25a7c",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Today",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Schwabilismus | x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO | public | contract | 1,716,462,007,041 | will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan | Schwabilismus | Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? | null | null | null | null | null | |
t0d3ho8wmd | false | XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Today",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FoIuks-KAO_.jpg?alt=media&token=5d42a4fd-7a1e-4064-b48c-0a9f70d3b856",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Schwabilismus | wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t | public | contract | 1,716,462,075,071 | will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas | Schwabilismus | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? | null | 0.267634 | 1,729.633253 | YES | null | |
ji9h6oedfwk | false | SjXxAz2Y7BV0W9E0AHTJiVGJTIh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3ifz3gc5hre",
"label": "LeonardoKr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " You're right, and I thought that Leverkusen would win the Europa League, however I did notice a decline in performance in their last match against FC Augsburg which explains why they were playing like this against Atalanta. I do not think that we can compare this to Real Madrid vs Dortmund. Dortmund is even weaker than Leverkusen, while Real Madrid's recent performances were great (aside from their last match which was obviously a test for the goalkeeper and the defense, failed by Lunin and Militao, but also revealed that Arda Guler would be a useful substitute in the UCL final). I think that Real's performance against Betis will serve as a true benchmark for their form before the upcoming final. Many people make the mistake of believing that recent wins by underdogs suddenly mean that every other market is underpriced/overpriced, I do not see any reason for this link. Madrid have proven themselves against the previous champions of Europe, Manchester City, and also against Germany's strongest team in European Football, Bayern Munich (despite finishing third in the bundesliga).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | wabz | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,716,462,099,207 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | wabz | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | 5uefgxxb957 | 0.278697 | 12,499.117242 | NO | null | |
r3hwrsduf3n | false | kao73g2es1T46wMoskeGoCSO0KI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Creating an ui-event log seems easy enough, even recording app states at low frequency (~per second, like microsoft's copilot+pc). Though recording at high frequency what each app is displaying seems harder (e.g. you don't want to record a movie the user is watching frame-by-frame, even though it may be nice to know what exactly the user saw 50ms before they clicked pause)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jörn | yvO8aFh9mPu3ERkbHUgO | public | contract | 1,716,462,103,529 | by-eoy-2026-will-iphones-have-an-ai | Joern | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Z93xvS1kGC7v3fAQmA1DUaiVZoaIMJKtg2xhJ=s96-c | By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone? | fp4prlltq9l | 0.381005 | 778.485435 | YES | null |
lmzlu02u3ti | false | fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4hbf0vdvhc8",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't have a problem with the wealth gap, except in places like Russia where it's mostly a result of rampant and shameless corruption and theft. It's the wrong thing to focus on. And I do resent others telling wealthy people what they should do with their money.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As for ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2",
"label": "singer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 's reconstruction of my line of thought, I find it to be done in bad faith and based on assumptions and assertions I've never made or implied (albeit done respectfully, which I appreciate). I don't think philanthropy is bad, and I am wholeheartedly in favour of good animal welfare, especially when it comes to humane treatment of the ones we eat. Also in favour of bednets for those who need it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I usually only buy organic and free-range products, and I even avoid stepping on a trail of ants on the sidewalk. The other day there was a moth in my flat and I carefully picked it up by its wings and put it outside the window instead of killing it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The best of way to summarize my line of thought is that I don't think the focus of EAs, philantropists, environmentalists et al will lead to a net increase in human welfare, and also that I am in favour of sustainable solutions. Redistribution is not a sustainable solution to any of these problems, and has never been shown to be in history.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | t-bird | Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf | public | contract | 1,716,462,557,904 | which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo | tbird | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c | Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level? | vzwgzxz9hx | null | null | null | null |
427ogjs8kde | false | fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lmzlu02u3ti",
"label": "tbird",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " remember this discussion started because I disagreed that we should intervene to make wild animals suffer less and that we should base our morality and ethics on the reduction of suffering. That doesn't mean I am in favour of suffering, it means I think it's a bad goal that will not lead to more prosperity.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It is like focusing on \"not dying\" versus \"keeping healthy habits\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | t-bird | Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf | public | contract | 1,716,462,822,292 | which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo | tbird | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c | Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level? | vzwgzxz9hx | null | null | null | null |
qrxdlnie3nr | false | krCVG3NICjMBTShuh2qFBfxjJh53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So if no cabinet members resign during the next 6 weeks of general election campaign (and Labour win) then these all resolve YES? Because... well, I'm putting some mana on that outcome.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tom Offer | HzhezEgw8RtDX4MXEKvP | public | contract | 1,716,462,878,610 | who-will-leave-the-ukgov-cabinet-ne-0230dabd3759 | Tomoffer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYixst_qSqIc7yL9LzODpTkqwwZD_6YEFduz-Up=s96-c | Who will leave the UK.gov Cabinet next? | null | null | 28.653741 | YES | 469bb1712cce |
lczrct0t8e | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I really like the event. Every day it gives some progress and updates to reevaluate probability, creating interesting plots.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | 7578UT8qujG6AorznU8S | public | contract | 1,716,463,295,107 | who-will-be-the-first-one-to-finish | KongoLandwalker | Who will be the first one to finish Deep Dip 2? | null | null | 218.814945 | YES | 81eee2af008e | |
e80t65is6nm | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The only cool badge would be a counter that shows total $ donated to charities by the person through this platform. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | vq0qbwE2Sj9SAsdJKQgB | public | contract | 1,716,463,537,537 | would-you-pay-10month-for-a-badge-w | KongoLandwalker | Would you pay $10/month for a badge with no functionality other than being cool? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ujn2d5nhr6o | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating#9g0cvc7whi9",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating#9g0cvc7whi9",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Fee structure changed for creators",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Glidden | eVsjvwi4WoP0VUyY0owL | public | contract | 1,716,463,717,032 | let-me-know-when-theres-been-a-chan | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | Alert us when Manifold has changed | null | null | null | null | null |
8lwxjewyd7j | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Needs a clearer no resolution criteria",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,463,780,881 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | RemNi | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ym3alkjxc3c | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is very hard to predict. It's probably a massive deflationary pressure, but it probably would also motivate the US to massively expand the supply of money.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | Y8g3cesowHwKu5YdOSb2 | public | contract | 1,716,463,939,595 | one-year-after-agi-is-built-what-wi | RemNi | One year after AGI is built, what will be the interest rate (%) in the United States? | null | null | null | null | null | |
kwzoprkljhc | false | VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qrxdlnie3nr",
"label": "Tomoffer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Correct, this is now a race between any member leaving and the election leading to some or all of them leaving cabinet. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | NoitUK | HzhezEgw8RtDX4MXEKvP | public | contract | 1,716,463,961,223 | who-will-leave-the-ukgov-cabinet-ne-0230dabd3759 | NoitUK | Who will leave the UK.gov Cabinet next? | qrxdlnie3nr | null | 0 | NO | a595565c4ba0 | |
poxrcniki8 | false | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ier5pibc2yg",
"label": "BobSnodgrass",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks for your concern about \"doxxing,\" but all of the information is obsolete, given that he doesn't live at the addresses or have the phone numbers anymore. I have no regrets posting the site - as I said before, the police never care about anything so you have to do it yourself. However, your response is interesting because there are several people who refuse to talk to me, stating that posting the site was reprehensible.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The purpose was to prevent others from giving money to him and to get him removed from his government positions. He was actually the treasurer (!) of a municipal authority, and it is a public good that he no longer has the authority to spend money on behalf of that township.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The problem was that nobody believed where the money was going without concrete evidence. Posting the evidence succeeded in preventing about $50,000 in additional loans being given to him. As he would have used it to buy bitcoins and trade with criminals in Eastern Europe, I believe there is some probability that Ukranian lives were saved as a result of that site. I stand by my decision and would do it again, because it did good for the world.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In regards to fraud occurring in other areas of finance, that is not a true comparison. Credit card fraud occurs as you correctly pointed out, but the charges are easily reversible. Even when the City of Tallahassee wrongfully deducated money from my business's bank account (I've never been to Tallahassee), I sued them and got a settlement.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "With bitcoins, that isn't possible; the money is gone. Bankman-Fried's real estate is quaint compared to what some of these people do - these scammers are evil people who are using the money to move drugs and weapons. I've said elsewhere that I do think that cryptocurrency was designed from the start to make the worst of the worst fraud easier. Nakamoto's anonymity, the nonsensical decisions during the blocksize debate, and the obvious observation that its main use is fraud supports that argument. There actually is a guy involved in a high-level criminal gang who is one of the leading candidates for being Satoshi Nakamoto.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I actually is up to the government to make decisions on what is right and what is wrong. We vote for candidates to say that abortion is right or wrong, and whether terrorism should deserve punishment A or punishment B. My vote will be against Biden because Merrick Garland needs to go for not enforcing the law. But whichever way you vote, it's fair game for the government to decide that bitcoin use is right or wrong and to base a vote on it, because we do that all the time on many issues.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Steve Sokolowski | C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef | public | contract | 1,716,464,157,191 | will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024? | eirwygstybn | 0.197087 | 0 | NO | null |
5tvtr044goy | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This excludes shooting down a satellite that belongs to that nation right ?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | 5ltp4oJ9QEnHDtdXaC1X | public | contract | 1,716,464,214,871 | satellite-downed-by-offensive-opera | RemNi | Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026? | null | 0.347289 | 57.181775 | NO | null | |
5bkfuhffvyt | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The BBC are reporting that the bill is unlikely to make it through before Parliament is dissolved:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69051548",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69051548",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Simon Grayson | wluc4fM8Bc1oGwhq0q5m | public | contract | 1,716,464,258,272 | will-a-lifetime-smoking-ban-become | SimonGrayson | Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election? | null | 0.320002 | 2,288.197585 | NO | null | |
v4l75krzmcj | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Created independent format by mistake. Bet here:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/dglid/who-will-win-survivor-47-7874d0609497",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Glidden | yy2IZhxwg2Z50c44aHzk | public | contract | 1,716,464,304,881 | who-will-win-survivor-47 | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | Who will win Survivor 47? (deprecated) | null | null | null | null | null |
e4bbj7cfcg | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Market for next season up!:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/dglid/who-will-win-survivor-47-7874d0609497",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Glidden | YYf6RrBuaIAlPoZ4uL1Y | public | contract | 1,716,464,382,501 | who-will-win-survivor-46 | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | Who will win Survivor 46? | null | null | null | null | null |
d2aqe1yftbb | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "26.044",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | h9FS2qmiwpzGoZtYpEf7 | public | contract | 1,716,464,575,059 | will-nvidias-q1-2024-revenue-exceed | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will Nvidia's (NVDA) Q1 2024 revenue exceed $24 billion? | null | 0.989577 | 1,442.04084 | YES | null |
vuips9pqyxd | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "26.044bn ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | 2FScsnDtQkSvFJySiVP5 | public | contract | 1,716,464,670,581 | will-nvidias-nvda-q1-2024-revenue-e | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will Nvidia's (NVDA) Q1 2024 revenue exceed $27 billion? | null | 0.010158 | 1,212.037542 | NO | null |
o3cacejflb | false | tnFD9Mi08pcWSDrqmkvnw2bDLsz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Ich habe kürzlich ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://livescore-bet.casinologinde.com",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "LiveScore Bet login",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ausprobiert und fand ihn sehr einfach und schnell. Der Zugang zu meinem Konto war mühelos. Die Benutzeroberfläche ist klar strukturiert und gut gestaltet, was die Navigation auf der Website erleichtert hat. Die Sicherheitsmaßnahmen scheinen robust zu sein und sorgen für ein sicheres Erlebnis. Jedoch könnten die Ladezeiten der Seite verbessert werden. Alles in allem bietet LiveScore Bet einen reibungslosen und sicheren Login-Prozess.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jammie Ampongan | SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG | public | contract | 1,716,464,895,805 | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres | JammieAmpongan | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ7EEYI0vORA0IJOZyZqlbWpQgLUVc5xHpaP5Z4GswlFWL2KA=s96-c | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | null | null | null | null | null |
1ryqhz6gslgi | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "38f12koenjh",
"label": "Sodann",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The other market about Invasion vs ceasefire vs neither this month. A guy posted a strong lead and I came here and saw Stefanie had posted it too and been told it's \"quite close\" and my position was overpriced, and I figured there was no way it'd make it another week especially if a preponderance could be determined at any moment. Now it looks like I overcorrected, but that's the problem with this market structure, which I'm aware of by now. Oh well. I already wasn't winning Masters this month.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Panfilo | EnIPKs1K04vlHWBLgbbn | public | contract | 1,716,465,067,229 | when-will-a-rafah-ground-invasion-b | Panfilo | When will a Rafah Ground Invasion be reported by the NYT? (Weekly) | 38f12koenjh | null | 1,193.288279 | YES | 63b7da69ed2a | |
eogrdqc963e | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ho4usbl3sx",
"label": "Nat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " added",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | 0xSMW | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,465,098,271 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | 0xSMW | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | ho4usbl3sx | 0.631624 | 437.559324 | YES | null | |
mppahe5z3s | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8lwxjewyd7j",
"label": "RemNi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " added",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | 0xSMW | E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb | public | contract | 1,716,465,101,646 | is-openai-building-a-search-engine | 0xSMW | Is OpenAI building a search engine? | 8lwxjewyd7j | 0.631624 | 437.559324 | YES | null | |
oxeyygz739 | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Exit order at 5%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Panfilo | WN2rXnkAumLcDdO1You7 | public | contract | 1,716,465,816,208 | will-elon-announce-hes-bringing-bac-450caf2b5aa1 | Panfilo | Will Elon announce before June that he's bringing back Vine? | null | 0.093175 | 983.470399 | NO | null | |
w0e1irw1v4 | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Exit order at 5%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Panfilo | QWLnX45sk3Qa8sIly2Sj | public | contract | 1,716,465,946,473 | will-sam-altman-start-a-new-ai-comp | Panfilo | Will Sam Altman start a new AI company before June 2024? | null | 0.094034 | 579.488477 | NO | null | |
gker9rkygh4 | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Terrible that they're probably going to be disolved as a studio for making one ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "merely good",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " game.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Panfilo | R4tOzZOsTZBoHPioJ3Ja | public | contract | 1,716,466,145,342 | will-senuas-saga-hellblade-2-have-a | Panfilo | Will Senua's Saga: Hellblade 2 have a Metacritic score of 90 or higher as of May 23rd? | null | 0.083487 | 744.175864 | NO | null | |
v0vufamdrzb | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Link to survey results?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | tgREidX5nrH2ZTDXkvhU | public | contract | 1,716,466,187,220 | according-to-19-ai-safety-experts-w | parhizj | According to 20 AI safety experts, what is the biggest mistake the AI safety community has made in the past? | null | null | 20.02838 | YES | 3e2b007e5bf4 | |
o04n6e48c2d | false | y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "33iiyzghp5d",
"label": "Carlosab83",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " if you want to sell your shares, the button is there:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FAyxAFgrlkQ.06?alt=media&token=a5f08f9b-6493-4dde-b9d3-ef24b0b6b5c8",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bair | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,716,466,283,713 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Bair | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 33iiyzghp5d | null | 78,264.511324 | YES | d827ecde0e0b |
2x8c3d5zge8 | false | lcp9AJH0IYXGiM4lF5cq5BNbU083 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5tvtr044goy",
"label": "RemNi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " It should exclude a nation specifically and intentionally shooting down its own satellite, yes.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jared Kehlmann | 5ltp4oJ9QEnHDtdXaC1X | public | contract | 1,716,466,860,240 | satellite-downed-by-offensive-opera | JaredKehlmannb25e | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcpewi8C4MGVVRgKSY3dm044qkORWShHWW48xARN-4xrQ=s96-c | Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026? | 5tvtr044goy | null | null | null | null |
2qjkz8rd7ic | false | W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How could quitting increase Biden's chances of winning? It could increase the Dems chance of winning though.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Frederick Norris | SldYBXKt0MpG154CPSlW | public | contract | 1,716,466,918,155 | what-should-the-biden-campaign-be-d | FrederickNorris | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1nG8JLEomMagK6stKR9jLtLP2h-QTJkMxC9Qz-tJy8A=s96-c | What should the Biden campaign be doing right now to increase their chances of winning the election? | null | null | 56.25 | YES | 8dfb5a365b64 |
9u4aaa3ipql | false | WUEWJSK1MtTxEBqD6PKECDjtGDu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "resolved: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xCmj2w2ZrcwxdH9z3/p/wHRMZizqfdW9RjrCY",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xCmj2w2ZrcwxdH9z3/p/wHRMZizqfdW9RjrCY",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | euan mclean | H2DKzSrHWSh02M4qKwFn | public | contract | 1,716,467,859,281 | according-to-19-ai-safety-experts-w-d5502228b55a | euanmclean | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdLNsQtF-zMTWvE8DO-wYKcBhPqc_1IcDu545ujfE7_4Tc=s96-c | According to 20 AI safety experts, what will the first human-level AI look like? | null | null | null | null | null |
3touv8i7pvf | false | WUEWJSK1MtTxEBqD6PKECDjtGDu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "resolved: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xCmj2w2ZrcwxdH9z3/p/XfnnkK8XEjTqtuXGM",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xCmj2w2ZrcwxdH9z3/p/XfnnkK8XEjTqtuXGM",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | euan mclean | oxEl0YMN5ydg7yTwVCWz | public | contract | 1,716,467,902,681 | according-to-19-ai-safety-experts-w-524bc5e87b85 | euanmclean | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdLNsQtF-zMTWvE8DO-wYKcBhPqc_1IcDu545ujfE7_4Tc=s96-c | According to 20 AI safety experts, what is the most promising research direction in AI safety today? | null | null | null | null | null |
zmg84u42zv | false | WUEWJSK1MtTxEBqD6PKECDjtGDu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "resolved: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xCmj2w2ZrcwxdH9z3/p/cGzQBRDrpNHoYtbKN",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xCmj2w2ZrcwxdH9z3/p/cGzQBRDrpNHoYtbKN",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | euan mclean | tgREidX5nrH2ZTDXkvhU | public | contract | 1,716,467,926,816 | according-to-19-ai-safety-experts-w | euanmclean | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdLNsQtF-zMTWvE8DO-wYKcBhPqc_1IcDu545ujfE7_4Tc=s96-c | According to 20 AI safety experts, what is the biggest mistake the AI safety community has made in the past? | null | null | null | null | null |
njqsvoes27b | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "iTunes charts have the song as a new entry at number 5, seems like we might not need to wait for the election for Things to Only Get Better. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://kworb.net/charts/itunes/uk.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://kworb.net/charts/itunes/uk.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | ZmJx6CZSe7boyJxZmp1l | public | contract | 1,716,468,991,882 | will-things-can-only-get-better-ree | Noit | Will “Things Can Only Get Better” re-enter the UK Top 10 Singles or Album charts before July? | null | null | null | null | null | |
crxvcoqrm5g | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"the aesthetics of safety\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | 9oxI67zTz0UUSr3iv5jM | public | contract | 1,716,469,251,236 | will-anthropic-at-some-point-pause-2ad67e0ddf58 | RemNi | Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations? | null | 0.440188 | 61.618444 | YES | null | |
rphc12o6rh | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "egfhh6t7atb",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I actually wonder how many of those steam achievements looked up the solutions. I'm at 190 levels solved without looking up anything but I'm definitely stuck 😅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mqrius | PglBs5rcGHkotQZL76ik | public | contract | 1,716,469,475,008 | will-panfilo-finish-baba-is-you-by | Mqrius | Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024? | rtw6maqpmb | 0.266259 | 871.858361 | NO | null | |
f88cgq96uz | false | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 80",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Base | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,469,755,153 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | Base | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | 1,262.491056 | NO | ef66cc22eb16 | |
qrjqcoq9w3 | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4034624",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4034624",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4034626",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4034626",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: f88cgq96uz.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,469,758,561 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
gseu8ynmhwu | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 29",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: f88cgq96uz, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4034626",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4034626",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature b7526c75f7255977025093a0ed9a96ba6e725d61ee614d562d32206cadd683efa38c270e03a9fda39e1c9c3c0d50605d142d859913ef41becdc126248496e3f6f3629299ef0190867c593840227f65c07b9b89f5205a542b4cc161187665462a)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,469,802,799 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
gmgx5lycou | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Some refer to him as \"former president\" as opposition presidential candidate ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " claimed she had received between 60 and 70% of the vote in 2020. \"Despot\", \"autocrat\", \"dictator\", or simply \"leader\" may be a more accurate term to use.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | I09yNs5zt9oAxMSf6ch4 | public | contract | 1,716,469,843,951 | will-lukashenko-still-be-the-presid-f8b990c08892 | Lorelai | Will Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
m9x1ca1el7d | false | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 80",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Base | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,469,847,881 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | Base | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | 1,262.491056 | NO | ef66cc22eb16 | |
pm4foswern | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4034627",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4034627",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4034629",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4034629",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: m9x1ca1el7d.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,469,851,922 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
l6mee7l5rj | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Some refer to him as \"former president\" as opposition presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed she had received between 60 and 70% of the vote in 2020. \"Despot\", \"autocrat\", \"dictator\", or simply \"leader\" may be a more accurate term to use.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | ji4bN8vjVj9NglD4g0MD | public | contract | 1,716,469,854,657 | will-lukashenko-still-be-the-presid | Lorelai | Will Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
b459vm9gyvs | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 56",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: m9x1ca1el7d, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4034629",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4034629",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature b0208e3deea37e57b072d02de493b7793613da6859034ab19ada13df4c01739ba7276bee385813ce78fb05b18cfeb16116f8b5bfc56da844b2d39d661d2cd305dd12576d6474256aa6740cd4a999e0b2f2b13e1c4636efff191806c772a2fbd1)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,469,893,061 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
w90p8v4svy9 | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "84f86pb2qb4",
"label": "Odoacre",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " They had to pay back the loan, so they \"lost\" the money in that sense. If you mean there was a chance they could fail to pay back the loan, yes there was a chance of that, but the government decided it was worth the risk, and I'd agree with them.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | 9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ | public | contract | 1,716,470,466,999 | what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes | mongo | What is worse than committing a financial crime? | sqcenuq7og | null | 509.324885 | NO | a2c3f62987bf | |
8ifrhvikzsk | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "History books focused on what? The world? America?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | aoFVJLgtMkMsc3HHVIwD | public | contract | 1,716,470,572,455 | what-news-stories-of-the-2020s-will | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s? | null | null | null | null | null |
fzasc2jqrv | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Wish there was a more specific definition of \"respected history textbooks\", but I could not possibly imagine COVID, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, Jan. 6, U. S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the George Floyd protests, or Trump's trials ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "not",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " being mentioned in history books. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | aoFVJLgtMkMsc3HHVIwD | public | contract | 1,716,470,626,029 | what-news-stories-of-the-2020s-will | PlasmaBallin | What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s? | null | null | 1,441.079652 | YES | 4449efc2a711 | |
ek8ca0kmyvb | false | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It would be nice if one could bet to win a certain sum for every seat above a level (and lose for every seat below that level).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ponti Min | bLoIeafriHZDIhUa649A | public | contract | 1,716,470,791,212 | how-many-seats-will-the-conservativ-89c852a83f80 | PontiMin | How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
7r6wgosriqq | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is this question",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"What will be the standard deviation of the margin shift towards Biden in the set { PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC }\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | VigVo973RyQYr9SxJzaF | public | contract | 1,716,470,799,520 | will-all-of-the-swing-states-move-s-78aec70bef9a | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will all of the swing states move similarly in the 2024 election (based on std dev of change in margin from 2020)? | null | null | null | null | null |
q7rjz6nb4te | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I mean, is this the question being asked?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | VigVo973RyQYr9SxJzaF | public | contract | 1,716,470,820,187 | will-all-of-the-swing-states-move-s-78aec70bef9a | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will all of the swing states move similarly in the 2024 election (based on std dev of change in margin from 2020)? | 7r6wgosriqq | null | null | null | null |
7pcos7t40uu | false | KSMJlFMzYFhhEqSbIL0gJ9Xn53t1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2r6ov1se9vs",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Seems like I’m late, sorry, I was travelling.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The main reasons are that it’s significantly cheaper (about 10-20x) than competitors, and significantly better at following commands, compared to GPT-4 or similar.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This means that we can put Gemini into a data pipeline, and rely on its output being high quality and consistently formatted. GPT-4 often tries to show how smart it is, so it won’t follow instructions as often. For example, if you say: “please only answer one of the following options”, GPT-4 will more often add a sentence, which breaks the pipeline if you rely on a consistent answer (or makes us have to account for these cases). Gemini is better “trained”.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "GPT is like a smart kid with no job training, so it’s like “cool, but it would be expensive to use and a lot of work to wrangle it”, Gemini is an already-trained worker that is just as smart, and way cheaper. It makes it useable for a lot more applications, beyond just being a cool toy.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Santiago Romero Brufau | vPLX4N8A3omuDMQSwm7n | public | contract | 1,716,470,833,558 | will-googles-gemini-model-turn-out | Santiago | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIAKQOXO7mTSeHdiLSaBybUx922GzFeR3X0i1BKKP4Mi_Y=s96-c | Will Google's Gemini Ultra model turn out to be "mehr Schein als sein"? | e2xrrba0ut8 | 1 | 89.451036 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.