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"... | Bionic | u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv | public | contract | 1,718,900,184,542 | will-the-estimated-training-cost-of | BionicD0LPH1N | Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M? | bbr83acqcgt | 0 | 0 | NO | null | |
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}... | Predictor 🔥 | 7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ | public | contract | 1,718,900,641,593 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f | Predictor | Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024? | null | 1 | 708.097517 | NO | null | |
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w242eifyw7l | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
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]... | Lion | 9sm5wmh7po | public | contract | 1,718,901,323,946 | short-fuse-will-sd-worx-protime-ann | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | [short fuse] Will SD Worx Protime announce that the best female cyclist ever (Queen Anna van der Breggen) will unretire? | xy241pgn3yg | 0.99 | 792.452555 | YES | null |
gktp9hejcx8 | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
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... | mr_mino | hcihogq4zw | public | contract | 1,718,901,445,493 | what-will-be-true-of-the-company-sa | mr_mino | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhpVDFQAVKbt-9Od9WSi01Lp_CQJnMybA5BxSxLa6a=s96-c | What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers) | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Bjorn | Rj9yDrFZcto3WlRHYl1d | public | contract | 1,718,901,636,523 | what-percentage-of-manifold-users-w-cf15d173add7 | brp | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | What percentage of Manifold users will consider themselves "woke" on Nov 1, 2024? | u73fu8uusbo | null | null | null | null |
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"text"... | Łukasz Bartoszcze | 8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL | public | contract | 1,718,901,723,415 | will-harry-kane-score-more-goals-at | ukaszBartoszcze | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAzqOEpDemVFZnDaZ_a1yJBvJ9cAKEBP_qg6nYoNRIBSU=s96-c | Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined? | null | 0.243916 | 131.107234 | YES | null |
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... | AVS | cYTyM0vMT62O2PiCkGEw | public | contract | 1,718,901,853,850 | will-turkey-andor-northern-cyprus-o | AVS | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "Plot twist: AI bots take so many online IQ tests that a score of 100 is renormalized to above the human average.",
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... | Bjorn | XTRIecctqBQmMeRjXWCM | public | contract | 1,718,902,023,710 | will-ai-surpass-human-intellect-by | brp | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030? | null | 0.731578 | 115.93988 | YES | null |
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"text": "I assume that if the Wikipedia page is vandalism (e.g. a complete fake created by someone to tamper with this market) it doesn't count?",
"ty... | Vanessa Kosoy | wo7uvrw47r | public | contract | 1,718,902,166,892 | will-india-and-china-go-to-war-befo | VanessaKosoy | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte_ALTuE-hy2f-vUSbXP-z4Ye8ZmPMTm1_h-6L7wCd1Mg=s96-c | Will India and China go to war before 2026? | of748nxvfk9 | 0.117338 | 1,274.477768 | NO | null |
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"t... | Eliza | 9sm5wmh7po | public | contract | 1,718,902,300,471 | short-fuse-will-sd-worx-protime-ann | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | [short fuse] Will SD Worx Protime announce that the best female cyclist ever (Queen Anna van der Breggen) will unretire? | xy241pgn3yg | 1 | 350.113659 | YES | null |
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"text": "Feels like this should be about 5%. Vulnerable species typically are 10% in the next 100 years, but the giant panda has more individuals and much more ... | Mactuary | qNnY3V0i6Y9XuSl3uKkS | public | contract | 1,718,902,387,526 | will-the-giant-panda-ailuropoda-mel | Mactuary | Will the Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) become extinct in the current century? | null | 0.3 | 143.826244 | NO | null | |
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"text": "Both of those refer to the Patten Report, which is discussed in a comment thread below. The conclusion is that it is unlikely to be sufficient for this... | MercurialGuesser | NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH | public | contract | 1,718,902,525,686 | will-the-oct-7-rape-claims-be-subst | OP | Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation? | 4qipu4jhixa | 0.41794 | 571.293105 | NO | null | |
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"type": "doc... | Hans Koch | 0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2 | public | contract | 1,718,902,589,416 | uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc | HansKoch | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7hFX4KMfBUEsfWkR5M2v6T2xtOT8VaheyE7hqwyx6ryg5cw=s96-c | UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Group Stage Matches | null | null | 732.396131 | YES | 69416dc5e39c |
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"text": "I would like to propose that if the other Manifest is held somewhere geographically distinct (eg, Boston, NYC, London, Berlin), we now refer to Manifes... | Dave K | cp2uxtuzmy | public | contract | 1,718,902,610,399 | will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex | DaveK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2R6SvkbqD9GkJI_SN-kCZntRToJnhbIGK4scrO=s96-c | Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years? | null | 0.9194 | 56.984563 | YES | null |
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"text": "Well, that was a roller coaster to get to this point, what surprises still await us over the next week? Are you as hyped for this occurrence as you wer... | Eliza | K7LSHE4UNZJ7d5dtOm9G | public | contract | 1,718,902,620,675 | will-the-2024-tour-de-france-have-j | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will the 2024 Tour de France have Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel? | null | 0.89653 | 1,159.832602 | YES | null |
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... | Bruno | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,718,904,290,286 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 3.032724 | NO | t3wjz0pufe |
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... | Austin | cp2uxtuzmy | public | contract | 1,718,906,552,498 | will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex | Austin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | nikki | cp2uxtuzmy | public | contract | 1,718,906,640,090 | will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex | nikki | Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years? | n8rie5ugego | 0.9194 | 2,817.340662 | NO | null | |
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... | Austin | cp2uxtuzmy | public | contract | 1,718,906,964,756 | will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex | Austin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years? | n8rie5ugego | null | null | null | null |
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9tae64ca5ke | false | TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2 | {
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}... | riverwalk3 | BrTM8cgCLUTGZ0tGPbhC | public | contract | 1,718,907,314,959 | biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-9286913ee167 | riverwalk3 | Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (538) | null | null | 9,972.347016 | YES | bb6111675e6a | |
n6fqh0z4o2b | false | bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2 | {
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"l... | Eric Bolton | lb1bngyjt3 | public | contract | 1,718,907,615,091 | will-my-cousin-yohannesr-pass-his-d | EricBolton | Will my cousin @YohannesR pass his driving test? | null | null | null | null | null | |
6u5856id2p | false | TcNrPJjTvcRk9C8z5PyTJ7q9B4M2 | {
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... | Myron Hedderson | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,718,907,870,632 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | equinoxhq | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK79CzUuubhMd8rE8r6FCbzpFMHg0BS0QQ0xw3lFSBV=s96-c | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | null | null | null | null | null |
4aphzbqfli6 | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
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"text": "This should obviously be at 100%, just missing those loans. The more important question is how often will the Queen 🧡 win on the Mur de Huy?",
... | Lion | on7hsgns6q | public | contract | 1,718,908,061,773 | will-anna-van-der-breggen-win-anoth | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Will Anna van der Breggen win another professional UCI Road cycling race by the end of the 2026 season? | null | 0.74834 | 1,157.991796 | YES | null |
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