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} | Jonathan Ray | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,556,023,894 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JonathanRay | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 7qxw7pv5qok | 0.741013 | 2,086,380.434276 | YES | null | |
ugx5qumxqtb | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
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"text": "Biden has already won all the delegates to the DNC who select the nominee, so they'll go to whoever he endorses.",
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} | Semiotic Rivalry | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,556,121,487 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | SemioticRivalry | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 7qxw7pv5qok | 0.741013 | 922,753.140041 | NO | null | |
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"text": " i realize the specific question above was \"who can outperform biden on a dem ticket\" (which this answers), but i don't know how far a tactical evaluation of electability can take you in terms of the market odds of the other contenders (or of biden not being the nominee)",
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"text": "to be specific, how much do you think this sort of electability-analysis helps inform the actual odds of the other contenders? the connection feels pretty tenuous—i don't really see why we should expect that (a) the relevant people with power will agree, given what we've seen, & (2) even if they did, how much power they have to direct things towards the electorally-optimal outcome for dems. ",
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"text": "(and more broadly i'm a bit mystified that kamala isn't considered the obvious default alternative, for exactly that reason—I don't think the successor will be chosen based on a careful analysis of electoral odds against trump. people skipping over her feels a bit like wishcasting who they would personally support)",
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} | Ziddletwix | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,556,125,061 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Ziddletwix | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 7qxw7pv5qok | 0.741013 | 1.058784 | YES | null |
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