id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
kt1egsit10c | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Every major news outlet endorsed Clinton in 2016, I don’t think it moves the needle anymore ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type"... | Kevin Burke | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,616,319,496 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | KevinBurke | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | ieclkd5r8yi | 0.74 | 26,834.210603 | YES | null | |
lncylfkxxn | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,616,330,860 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | nikki | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 0.985785 | 18.594578 | NO | null | |
44lfzskvpdg | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | nikki | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,616,347,346 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | nikki | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 0.985785 | 18.594578 | NO | null | |
r3nxpw62ym | false | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Basic version of this market",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,... | Keenen W | cRRJ2P03uiUS0wfSFKTL | public | contract | 1,719,616,359,690 | will-the-close-price-of-apple-nasda | KeenenW | Will the close price of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) be higher than the previous day? (Daily Market - May) | null | null | 72.829467 | NO | ce229d78bc03 | |
t3dkx8uoc5 | false | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The partiful for posterity ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | James | u2w4ypgp4c | public | contract | 1,719,616,466,787 | who-will-earn-the-most-mana-at-poke | JamesGrugett | Who will earn the most mana at poker night? | null | null | 535.608929 | NO | aesijbn1tq | |
147o5xy3d1fe | false | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Didn't move...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Martin Randall | Dh6cVoheJ0Y5ABtVabnF | public | contract | 1,719,616,507,485 | biden-trump-debate-gaffes-what-coun | MartinRandall | Biden Trump debate gaffes: what country? | null | null | null | null | null | |
yettdfwl96j | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This seems somewhat more likely after Biden's terrible performance in the first debate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "pa... | Timothy Johnson | 7SGg5yVBu8tl1APUphQq | public | contract | 1,719,616,822,046 | will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect-79so806ozc | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College? | null | 0.150267 | 0 | NO | null |
jyursmwiuwp | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "we're they at Manifest? I see they only mentioned LO and ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "igi2z... | stefanie | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,616,901,628 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | shankypanky | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 0.986028 | 130.744085 | YES | null | |
u675eevvo7o | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "you should've used the probability a week before he drops out or something, otherwise it'll already price it in",
"type": "text"
}
... | jackson polack | u7pakil1lt | public | contract | 1,719,617,263,943 | if-biden-drops-out-will-polymarkets | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | If Biden drops out, will Polymarket's odds of Trump winning decrease in the subsequent week? | null | null | null | null | null |
foryav5w8i | false | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Nothing to apologize for, I bet after the case dropped in the full knowledge that the position was a long shot.",
"type": "text"
}
... | Hyperlincoln | DPk0DnS8XHCjuhsSMj3r | public | contract | 1,719,617,295,340 | will-scouts-affirm-in-sec-v-jarkesy | Hyperlincoln | Will SCOTUS decide SEC fines violate right to trial by jury (affirm) in SEC v. Jarkesy? | shvofgeegwb | 1 | 6,276.557263 | NO | null | |
1hhygh5vzxz | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Debate bump ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | h33Uh9g5fryaEhLKHizU | public | contract | 1,719,617,390,943 | will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3f74609d4b03 | strutheo | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of June? | null | null | null | null | null | |
b9drnvlhi0g | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | kunxgmp71i | public | contract | 1,719,617,561,232 | first-debate-trumpisms-megamarket-w | Ziddletwix | First Debate Trump-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Trump say? | null | null | 3,054.450426 | NO | b8il7lraym | |
h00rq7csjlv | false | aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We need a poll on that. Keep moving it up another level. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": ... | Chris Snyder | rmqowryzty | public | contract | 1,719,617,642,016 | is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre | ChrisSnyder | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpylDvsoUKS3P2P4mU5BumdLv0Gxj2f5SpmWV_Y-3RSzyv=s96-c | Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)? | gse02w3dnxi | null | null | null | null |
isuh5yz1js | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is it Jon Test-over?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | Semiotic Rivalry | 5JyzBvet827GF7Hu9WRr | public | contract | 1,719,617,664,549 | will-jon-tester-be-reelected | SemioticRivalry | Will Jon Tester be reëlected? | null | 0.33 | 102,969.983604 | NO | null | |
6uqqra17jha | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Vote for Jimmy Carter",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SirCryptomind | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,617,694,892 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | SirCryptomind | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 3,668.737952 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 | |
8nifdg3mamd | false | pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "NYT Editorial Board agrees Biden should drop out: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | Jordan Remaker | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,617,768,611 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JordanRemaker | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | r8y186yto4h | null | null | null | null | |
2bju4v2e729 | false | pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "NYT Editorial Board calling for Biden to drop out: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,... | Jordan Remaker | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,617,794,008 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | JordanRemaker | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 142.337268 | NO | 51e4cacd136a | |
qssy67vggd | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok, the moment of truth will be in about half an hour, I'll stream on the manifold discord in case anyone wants to watch with me.",
"type": "... | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,617,884,898 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | 3k47z2w1a38 | null | null | null | null | |
v3i3lwq940p | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Ziddletwix | r5mrk7pb1a | public | contract | 1,719,618,106,001 | first-debate-bidenisms-megamarket-w | Ziddletwix | First Debate Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say? | null | null | 2,904.270173 | YES | 2phfc33nfr | |
wq2h4e6ttq | false | d5xiBIhfJaZpKMfZlDfT9d1SOu13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "buy NO to get free mana",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | catto | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,618,110,378 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | catto | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | 0.236164 | 368.665049 | NO | null | |
7axjt8xoyil | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You mean prize points.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,618,136,042 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | nathanwei | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | wq2h4e6ttq | 0.236164 | 128.584976 | NO | null | |
3porddvapxk | false | DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Biden and nonsense is free mana!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Blawd | ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc | public | contract | 1,719,618,159,180 | tump-v-biden-debate-bingo | KevinBlaw | Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN] | null | null | 269.520407 | NO | ji07tlnts7 | |
y9lvdhbm97m | false | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Lukas Day | rmg7s4fun7 | public | contract | 1,719,618,395,927 | will-idaho-take-steps-to-preserve-p | LukasDay | Will Idaho take steps to preserve PornHub access before June 27? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jj6b27d2pq | false | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolve no",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Marcus Abramovitch | 3RMAHTwyxV66ewG7acG9 | public | contract | 1,719,618,415,824 | will-the-us-successfully-broker-a-c | MarcusAbramovitch | Will the US successfully broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by the end of 2023? | null | 0.034434 | 1,052.635634 | NO | null | |
3ush58r0atk | false | GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Eliezer is just free money? How are his chances so close to Chomsky's?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | Jaundiced Baboon | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,719,618,538,068 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | JaundicedBaboon | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 40.197877 | YES | 6b933f3c5add |
kepspyegu3 | false | GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The odds of yes are surely higher than 35%. Anthropic has already committed to releasing 3.5 Opus later this year. Surely OpenAI will not let that go u... | Jaundiced Baboon | RDWu8WcOwoL5MdAr1Wmz | public | contract | 1,719,618,640,438 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e | JaundicedBaboon | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c | Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024? | null | 0.357455 | 66.90951 | YES | null |
kmapzob491 | false | xIkN4EvTFLOtiKnk3Zo66Gp3DyP2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What happened to this market? James Turrell is still alive??",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type... | Ali Kapadia | 5JUQwC5QqwEIpnWRtjxj | public | contract | 1,719,618,841,624 | will-roden-crater-be-completed-in-j | AliKapadia | Will Roden Crater be completed in James Turrell's lifetime? | null | 0.065556 | 47.787667 | YES | null | |
z96umfyymx | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm pretty busy this weekend so probably won't have much time to watch, but hope I can carve out some time, because I do love watching Modern. (Even if... | Ziddletwix | ab3pvzwnrq | public | contract | 1,719,618,951,868 | which-deck-will-win-pro-tour-modern | Ziddletwix | Which deck will win Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3? | null | null | 55.475478 | YES | igskpfqym2 | |
cfj4u59ri3 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You can't bring a binary option above 99% anymore, so there's no free money there",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragrap... | Bayesian | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,719,618,978,337 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | Bayesian | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 3ush58r0atk | null | 13.226396 | YES | awwox1mpkj | |
5oextpjopuf | false | GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ah that makes sense lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jaundiced Baboon | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,719,619,030,219 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | JaundicedBaboon | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 3ush58r0atk | null | 40.197877 | YES | 6b933f3c5add |
d1nqh9n1789 | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hmm good points. Surely there must be somebody. otherwise I'll unresolve",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | Ernie | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,619,035,212 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | Ernie | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | null | null | null | null | |
vojjj575ewq | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,619,174,814 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | null | 0.544488 | 1,468.677247 | YES | null |
gm5hlwwzhss | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,619,220,376 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.544488 | 1,468.677247 | YES | null |
bayidi38zav | false | dEvAkoH19rTcIENraMy3kZyHOe82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2",
"label": "Aella",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Luke Hanks (HankyUSA) | DHGzkbRsfbCUIlz5bf0w | public | contract | 1,719,619,252,180 | will-i-aella-convert-to-christianit | HankyUSA | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrs9Q53gYHp6HbnXlXHhLBPcjB8HOvuaWTt58yPYSM=s96-c | Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
0vjuop2f3ibo | false | 4bJFWVY9E8QCMtL0ygDFkbfZ97y2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "First post-debate poll I've seen has Biden ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | David F Watson | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,619,604,241 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | DavidFWatson | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0wda0GJ4AjSxXnc35f6cEb0ohecX6mHn9A5kvkIffO8_0=s96-c | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | 0.226933 | 191.135321 | NO | null |
e2c1ald2oj6 | false | 4bJFWVY9E8QCMtL0ygDFkbfZ97y2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You don't have to believe the poll to believe that Biden's team will take this as evidence that he shouldn't drop out.",
"type": "text"
... | David F Watson | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,619,631,002 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | DavidFWatson | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0wda0GJ4AjSxXnc35f6cEb0ohecX6mHn9A5kvkIffO8_0=s96-c | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | 0vjuop2f3ibo | 0.226933 | 191.135321 | NO | null |
rbhjukmtri | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "he's said for quite a while now that he would do other projects before Messiah so I can't speak for everyone but I'm personally waiting to see if he ha... | stefanie | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,619,818,342 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | shankypanky | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 103.176207 | NO | null | |
jsshaiu81wj | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolved the rest using the ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | Jack | m5i079o53b | public | contract | 1,719,619,890,640 | first-trump-vs-biden-presidential-d | jack | First Trump vs Biden presidential debate mention market: which words/phrases will be said? | 9hfcyviw1h5 | null | 2,199.373634 | YES | 6bnptnp67q | |
xv4kplvuv8 | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The other project is also Legendary. This here is actual news! The market should update!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "p... | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,620,100,848 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 1,834.112584 | YES | null |
xx00iavfxo9 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "sell order at 11%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | 1Es6BcA3sdaqBLbKSHu4 | public | contract | 1,719,620,162,092 | by-when-will-kenshin9000-or-anyone | Bayesian | By when will Kenshin9000 (or anyone else) “defeat all chess bots” using LLMs? (Permanent) | null | null | 7,203.628694 | NO | 6a81d47ad378 | |
54s7am7c59u | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't really know what to say if people think this shouldn’t be an update. But ok! Happy to bet.",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,620,216,073 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 1,834.112584 | YES | null |
p0i5qvqd36f | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok I'm starting now. I\"ve already run into a problem where the transcript is longer than the 2020 transcript and so pasting it into Claude still works... | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,620,435,146 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | null | null | null | null | |
0rqodjty4tm | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok and for ChatGPT, we have this incorrect search result output",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,620,526,542 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | p0i5qvqd36f | null | null | null | null | |
yfwn66jeifb | false | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That looks correct to me.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JKS | gBbPUOlDYvbmlGNwuWml | public | contract | 1,719,620,694,679 | how-many-times-will-trump-say-china-3b2682baa359 | jks | How many times will Trump say "China" in the first Presidential debate? | qfhbyziq7zd | null | 508.641798 | NO | c2d6b3f3e948 | |
p73bj5cey1 | false | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Started having emotional breakdowns multiple times a day, after a while of this I went off the estrogen, and now I have been depressed for the past few... | Celene | cWyhJjw7Hlj7rCNMmWK5 | public | contract | 1,719,620,723,230 | if-celene-takes-estrogen-will-she-c | Celene | If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect? | null | 0.857173 | 629.34556 | NO | null | |
5t9vz5jjtch | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🤔",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 3ef882zwka | public | contract | 1,719,620,783,528 | will-slasher-win-his-bet-with-dan-t | strutheo | Will Dan win his (proposed) bet with Slasher that the Captain Disrespect logs will leak by the end of the year? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ezfz65hzbms | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The transcript we're using is here: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"mar... | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,620,817,185 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | p0i5qvqd36f | null | null | null | null | |
1jw26ax9aah | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Kevin Burke | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,620,821,225 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | KevinBurke | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.769392 | 26,834.210603 | YES | null | |
2yynl9kfdaq | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "😬",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,719,620,979,298 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | strutheo | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | b4pckg7l3j7 | null | null | null | null | |
tfjyliqzcvj | false | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The first part of the interview is now out through the 80k hours podcast (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | AdamK | h7ia67sfw5 | public | contract | 1,719,621,030,185 | will-carl-shulman-soon-claim-that-a | AdamK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | Will Carl Shulman soon claim that AI forecasting systems will play an integral role in the post-AGI economy? | null | 0.606949 | 1,238.325532 | YES | null |
kt7mhxjgag | false | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ok I'm pressing the lever and seeing if it happens again (continuing to go off estrogen)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "p... | Celene | cWyhJjw7Hlj7rCNMmWK5 | public | contract | 1,719,621,094,315 | if-celene-takes-estrogen-will-she-c | Celene | If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect? | p73bj5cey1 | 0.857173 | 629.34556 | NO | null | |
g6hagtkpmkr | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Round 1 (using the prompts above):",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"con... | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,621,095,729 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | p0i5qvqd36f | null | null | null | null | |
s525pqx8o1p | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Joshua | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,621,099,472 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | Joshua | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | 0.112964 | 1,242.505717 | NO | null | |
tuw7o40sqhm | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Let's make another market where we have them judge based on the videos, whenever that feature exists :)",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,621,173,072 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | null | null | null | null | |
mehzcrn2ume | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Feel free to add it. Resolution source did not record any protests in Kenya as of May 2024.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type":... | Archibald Crone | WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj | public | contract | 1,719,621,271,654 | in-what-country-will-the-next-mass | BlueDragon | 📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024? | w2hkedzd13l | null | 180.116238 | YES | e41e47504bcc | |
96k0t6bm8o5 | false | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | SEE | WaZT7Z8qJariRjp1uF7F | public | contract | 1,719,621,503,873 | -cases-reversed-by-the-supreme-cour | SEE | 🏛️ ⚖️ Cases reversed by the Supreme Court of the United States (2023-2024 term) | 3pdrufl9f95 | null | 1,117.979886 | NO | df15a8dec095 | |
e6y3qd9axbj | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolution for ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
... | Archibald Crone | WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj | public | contract | 1,719,621,525,932 | in-what-country-will-the-next-mass | BlueDragon | 📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024? | null | null | 180.116238 | YES | e41e47504bcc | |
lamywaz9c2 | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Verbal proposal to lift the moratorium happened today.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attr... | Kongo Landwalker | 94bpfi6yda | public | contract | 1,719,621,546,765 | official-death-penalty-in-russia | KongoLandwalker | Official death penalty in Russia | null | null | null | null | null | |
8mesl3qro2g | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | d756aPgAviyaCUuFN3ct | public | contract | 1,719,621,711,114 | what-countries-or-regions-will-joe | nikki | What countries or regions will Joe Biden visit in 2024? 49*Y/N many options much mana | null | null | 565.314521 | YES | 44ce0fac154b | |
vvmsedkper | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "also AZ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | d756aPgAviyaCUuFN3ct | public | contract | 1,719,621,730,972 | what-countries-or-regions-will-joe | nikki | What countries or regions will Joe Biden visit in 2024? 49*Y/N many options much mana | 8mesl3qro2g | null | 565.314521 | YES | 44ce0fac154b | |
yqcwaz4wm2b | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mentio... | nikki | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,621,938,820 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | nikki | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 1 | 0 | NO | null | |
w9nf13dygbs | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not sure what you mean about it being before Dune 2 lol - there are tons of articles about him saying it from late 2023/early 2024",
"typ... | stefanie | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,622,013,856 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | shankypanky | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 103.176207 | NO | null | |
894c0igyr9k | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "nice",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,622,048,594 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | shankypanky | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 1 | 130.744085 | YES | null | |
s89fb5r3vn | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Both failed to pick a winner at first, and so it resolves NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | Jack | o6nlo95onn | public | contract | 1,719,622,335,288 | will-chatgptclaude-pick-a-debate-wi | jack | Will ChatGPT/Claude pick a debate winner? | null | null | -0 | YES | a9ki0u4mt2 | |
6jy2nx13qbf | false | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2",
"label": "AndrewG",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Andrew G | kjxrjmg7q4 | public | contract | 1,719,622,456,107 | will-there-be-a-second-ballot-for-p | AndrewG | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | Will there be a second ballot for president at the Democratic National Convention? | null | null | null | null | null |
l9gvb2oyr0m | false | aY5Y69raPSVhT9URnCjk6hBhPb83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Market Maker | cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3 | public | contract | 1,719,622,467,538 | prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1 | ManifoldMarketmaker | June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets | null | null | 2,087.955257 | NO | 7fcf8c6d99ad | |
dsnvx63wvym | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,622,572,965 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 2,820.261708 | YES | 2snwxarbig | |
6zead0aq46n | false | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "betting on regression to mean; not an endorsement of the course",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"t... | Adam | dz5j0b6k30 | public | contract | 1,719,622,651,884 | if-celene-continues-being-off-estro | Adam | If Celene continues being off estrogen will she continue experiencing above baseline levels of depression? | null | 0.393138 | 43.755932 | NO | null | |
73p17x9aqm | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "ment... | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,622,813,128 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 2,820.261708 | YES | 2snwxarbig | |
30xsajnvnb5 | false | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I also believe regression to the mean is what's going to happen here, I don't think that this is an actual thing where estrogen makes me not depressed"... | Celene | dz5j0b6k30 | public | contract | 1,719,623,155,879 | if-celene-continues-being-off-estro | Celene | If Celene continues being off estrogen will she continue experiencing above baseline levels of depression? | 6zead0aq46n | null | null | null | null | |
c7z2jzeopj | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "“I'm not sure what you mean about it being before Dune 2 lol - there are tons of articles about him saying it from late 2023/early 2024“",
"t... | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,623,596,977 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 1,834.112584 | YES | null |
71odds5dgrp | false | VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Al Quinn | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,719,623,673,838 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | b4pckg7l3j7 | 0.109992 | 333.333333 | YES | null |
ldx49fuqzjf | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Christopher Randles | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,623,853,862 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 1,813.343824 | YES | kdg1j6qwrs |
vsqudgpgym | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What happens if he's not longer the nominee and RCP drops their coverage?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}... | Daniel | 0MtsZecRUqcadX7Rksm1 | public | contract | 1,719,623,883,691 | has-biden-bottomed-in-the-rcp-polli | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Has Biden bottomed? (In the RCP polling average) | null | 0.380832 | 574.070011 | YES | null |
g254uz1x0wn | false | 4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since the resolver is banned, will this market ever resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | Eric Zhu | 7Noix6EKZN6WlYXvDeSz | public | contract | 1,719,623,897,401 | will-multiple-nuclear-weapons-be-de | EricZhu | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwS96LK82L2BHeWwAKQ5BGUK0vOjwgZXMXaXONBMqTYi-vgZ48=s96-c | Will multiple nuclear weapons be detonated during 2024? | null | 0.102575 | 55.637116 | NO | null |
xcq78xpcg2e | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | JRP | YRQDYg4a5ohNnT1iIkXb | public | contract | 1,719,623,961,153 | global-average-temperature-june-202 | parhizj | Global Average Temperature June 2024 per gistemp LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period | null | null | 502.383449 | YES | fe7fdf902df7 | |
nmmdjgpk8nc | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since EURO 2004, if a referee was selected to officiate the final, his country would go to the final in the following EURO edition.",
"type":... | Universal FC ⚽ | XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF | public | contract | 1,719,624,030,962 | which-country-will-win-euro-2024 | UniversalFC | Which country will win Euro 2024? | null | null | 1,131.777094 | YES | e6f33a256b53 | |
vfyuh469zzn | false | PJ6ywFzkSDMvKoNuqjUS2ljyxVZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | GCS | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,624,128,420 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | GCS | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | 0.266215 | 1,162.407416 | YES | null | |
1dnzsfc88vw | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I would bet they pull the naming and vitals from the COM directory or some similar mirror:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": ... | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,624,146,230 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | ldx49fuqzjf | null | 2,820.261708 | YES | 2snwxarbig | |
7xa7xfrud3p | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | chris (strutheo) | z64vr8zokm | public | contract | 1,719,624,180,637 | will-teflon-or-other-related-nonsti-k9sssb368o | strutheo | Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2027? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hdjpawyb9ft | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Poll closed 6 days ago now. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content":... | Daniel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,719,624,213,504 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 4qk2vltha1 | null | 642.067566 | NO | u71zgrfjae |
i88uuunlded | false | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I wish it was like neurons in his brains.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Craig Talbert | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,624,315,449 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 1jw26ax9aah | 0.764098 | 175.57437 | NO | null |
26196217wf6 | false | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Here's my attempt at a prompt: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": ... | Caleb Biddulph | bigmUbDeA9JyXdfdyIPW | public | contract | 1,719,624,651,430 | will-any-foundation-modelsllms-be-a | CDBiddulph | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
fzab84vkip8 | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2",
"label": "AmmonLam",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Christopher Randles | v4tUL0OuX82UwiA9WwU6 | public | contract | 1,719,624,911,934 | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-852856944e63 | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 150M views? | null | 0.989627 | 983.289617 | YES | null |
r9wiyuztxd | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "yes I don't see a reason it shouldn't be. one of my fellow mods is supposedly taking over BTEs markets iirc",
"type": "text"
}
... | Pat Scott🩴 | 7Noix6EKZN6WlYXvDeSz | public | contract | 1,719,624,972,060 | will-multiple-nuclear-weapons-be-de | Stralor | Will multiple nuclear weapons be detonated during 2024? | g254uz1x0wn | 0.102575 | 235.585623 | NO | null | |
5xtzt3kpdpl | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Universal FC ⚽ | 028a6RvwdTE8vDtjlJGW | public | contract | 1,719,625,844,378 | major-league-soccer-mls-2024-regula | UniversalFC | Major League Soccer (MLS) ⚽ 2024 Regular Season Matches | ybdd3rzy07e | null | 13,998.762744 | NO | b6c63e760349 | |
pfhgjze1yk | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "this graph gives me motion sickness ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,719,625,966,345 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | shankypanky | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | b4pckg7l3j7 | 0.109992 | 181.07992 | YES | null | |
jo07akaie17 | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah I'd assume \"select distinct identity from 'people at manifest as as guests, ie as participants not working for manifold or the venue etc'\" ",
... | Ernie | kcQ5QrbNhn3TxvX0pzjd | public | contract | 1,719,626,353,505 | how-many-people-will-attend-manifes-25d90d0299f8 | Ernie | How many people will attend Manifest 2024? | du3ib75mo5k | null | 73.648362 | YES | badb5fff4da3 | |
bbm5g2x00z | false | 2Piyl3HbmWbSJWHJhvyOZDdVPGK2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zgELhW63O7VsHREpHEdEPesmECs2",
"label": "ORACLE",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Charles Petty | ODNgeLSVcNAyMkOrkkCB | public | contract | 1,719,626,368,983 | -stock-ipo-2024-which-companies-wil | CharlesPetty | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp72Y_JRXFgU4xBIEHjENUi9OSRvC_IcY9GFNLfUhO8=s96-c | Which companies will successfully launch an IPO in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
i7r5dt9a35g | false | z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the guest list includes 646 ppl (this does include staff, but it would be >600 even if it didn't). But there were 70 no shows, so by ppl who actually s... | Rachel | kcQ5QrbNhn3TxvX0pzjd | public | contract | 1,719,626,783,747 | how-many-people-will-attend-manifes-25d90d0299f8 | rachel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr7YCsixsa7V2jXk_XiVJPYixsOTsXOURbZDyqIAQ=s96-c | How many people will attend Manifest 2024? | du3ib75mo5k | null | 64.584073 | YES | badb5fff4da3 |
t44qftuje3 | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | bdy2orno8b | public | contract | 1,719,626,788,451 | one-month-from-today-will-ten-or-mo | nikki | One month from today, will ten or more of the Manifest 2024 talks have been uploaded on YouTube for public viewing? | null | 0.99 | 1,000.861722 | YES | null | |
5z22ixbydio | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yep. NYT Editorial Board, Nate Silver, Bill Ackman... ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": nu... | Niko | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,627,638,730 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | Moscow25 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | vfyuh469zzn | 0.266565 | 0 | NO | null | |
gp89tdhcnwa | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why not wait with declaring it N/A til/ifl Biden drops out? Did I miss some breaking news?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": ... | Enlil | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,251,435 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | Enlil | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | null | null | null | null | null | |
occc69xdue | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Tomorrow I will create a market to bet on the results of this poll. It will be open through July 4th. I’m surprised no one else has asked this after th... | Charlie Bauer | 7qu4tse2vh | public | contract | 1,719,628,264,847 | should-joe-biden-be-the-2024-democr | CharlieBauer | Should Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee? | null | null | null | null | null | |
9erlgicj15u | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "because as it is the probabilities are wrong and it makes the market a lot more confusing. for example, if trump is at 60% in that market, since the ka... | Bayesian | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,337,489 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | Bayesian | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | gp89tdhcnwa | null | 17.395645 | YES | fpvtqzcqzv | |
gyl8yoerx7q | false | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm skeptical that local LLMs count as \"commercially available AI products\" ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Bohaska | osbD00CDUgcQGPHhH0mn | public | contract | 1,719,628,532,458 | ai-capabilities-2024-mega-market | bohaska | AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market] 🤖🦾🦿 | fylc5ab77b7 | null | 37.744901 | NO | d83065f830c4 | |
qnq8f74r5x | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Clearly marking the market as broken, unlisting it, and/or closing it are other possibilities that fix that and cause less damage than N/A.",
... | Jack | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,590,927 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | jack | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | gp89tdhcnwa | null | null | null | null | |
z7ibj65uznh | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Resolve it N/A if Kamala Harris or other candidate wins the election\" is a terrible idea. There's no downside to betting Trump to 90% or something",... | nikki | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,655,925 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | nikki | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | null | null | null | null | null | |
nlbi9u4toi | false | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "jason palmer for VP",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Magnus | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,628,672,065 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | thepurplebull | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 6uqqra17jha | null | 1,178.299743 | YES | 51e4cacd136a |
eogd99a4xd9 | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ideally, transfer the shares to another market",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,690,877 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | nikki | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | z7ibj65uznh | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.