id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
kt1egsit10c | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Every major news outlet endorsed Clinton in 2016, I don’t think it moves the needle anymore ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Burke | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,616,319,496 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | KevinBurke | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | ieclkd5r8yi | 0.74 | 26,834.210603 | YES | null | |
lncylfkxxn | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " keltan is aussie",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,616,330,860 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | nikki | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 0.985785 | 18.594578 | NO | null | |
44lfzskvpdg | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jAQ5wp6hhWnbyda9J/keltan-s-shortform",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jAQ5wp6hhWnbyda9J/keltan-s-shortform",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,616,347,346 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | nikki | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 0.985785 | 18.594578 | NO | null | |
r3nxpw62ym | false | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Basic version of this market",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/which-days-will-apple-increase",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Keenen W | cRRJ2P03uiUS0wfSFKTL | public | contract | 1,719,616,359,690 | will-the-close-price-of-apple-nasda | KeenenW | Will the close price of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) be higher than the previous day? (Daily Market - May) | null | null | 72.829467 | NO | ce229d78bc03 | |
t3dkx8uoc5 | false | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The partiful for posterity ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://partiful.com/e/tFDpX312ml6CLPpQOCzV",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://partiful.com/e/tFDpX312ml6CLPpQOCzV",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | James | u2w4ypgp4c | public | contract | 1,719,616,466,787 | who-will-earn-the-most-mana-at-poke | JamesGrugett | Who will earn the most mana at poker night? | null | null | 535.608929 | NO | aesijbn1tq | |
147o5xy3d1fe | false | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Didn't move...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Martin Randall | Dh6cVoheJ0Y5ABtVabnF | public | contract | 1,719,616,507,485 | biden-trump-debate-gaffes-what-coun | MartinRandall | Biden Trump debate gaffes: what country? | null | null | null | null | null | |
yettdfwl96j | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This seems somewhat more likely after Biden's terrible performance in the first debate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | 7SGg5yVBu8tl1APUphQq | public | contract | 1,719,616,822,046 | will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect-79so806ozc | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College? | null | 0.150267 | 0 | NO | null |
jyursmwiuwp | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "we're they at Manifest? I see they only mentioned LO and ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2",
"label": "Austin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " asked in the comments if they'll come to Manifest but didn't get an answer (I don't think I met them so I'm not sure if they decided to stay)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,616,901,628 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | shankypanky | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 0.986028 | 130.744085 | YES | null | |
u675eevvo7o | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "you should've used the probability a week before he drops out or something, otherwise it'll already price it in",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jackson polack | u7pakil1lt | public | contract | 1,719,617,263,943 | if-biden-drops-out-will-polymarkets | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | If Biden drops out, will Polymarket's odds of Trump winning decrease in the subsequent week? | null | null | null | null | null |
foryav5w8i | false | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Nothing to apologize for, I bet after the case dropped in the full knowledge that the position was a long shot.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hyperlincoln | DPk0DnS8XHCjuhsSMj3r | public | contract | 1,719,617,295,340 | will-scouts-affirm-in-sec-v-jarkesy | Hyperlincoln | Will SCOTUS decide SEC fines violate right to trial by jury (affirm) in SEC v. Jarkesy? | shvofgeegwb | 1 | 6,276.557263 | NO | null | |
1hhygh5vzxz | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Debate bump ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | h33Uh9g5fryaEhLKHizU | public | contract | 1,719,617,390,943 | will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3f74609d4b03 | strutheo | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of June? | null | null | null | null | null | |
b9drnvlhi0g | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "CNN transcript is up",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (plus the ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr9d79TNPfc",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "video",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " to confirm). ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "I resolved every YES that I could find",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". Currently, I plan to resolve all other remaining options NO, unless I hear otherwise. Please take a look, and LMK if I missed anything. A few of note:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The trickiest case is \"drain the swamp”, which was bet up high, but I can only find a single “drained the swamp” in the transcript, which ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "wouldn't",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " count. In the audio (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://youtu.be/yr9d79TNPfc?t=3965",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "timestamp",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), it's obviously hard to be totally confident about the difference between \"drained\" and \"drain\", but \"drained\" makes much more sense in context, and I think that's what I hear, so I feel pretty sure the transcript is right. If there are disputes, I can ask a mod to rule.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There’s a “weaponization”, but that does not count for “Weaponize(d)”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Biden says “bloodbath”, but not Trump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Again, I currently plan to resolve all un-resolved options as NO, but I'll wait a bit so people can flag anything I might have missed. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | kunxgmp71i | public | contract | 1,719,617,561,232 | first-debate-trumpisms-megamarket-w | Ziddletwix | First Debate Trump-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Trump say? | null | null | 3,054.450426 | NO | b8il7lraym | |
h00rq7csjlv | false | aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We need a poll on that. Keep moving it up another level. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris Snyder | rmqowryzty | public | contract | 1,719,617,642,016 | is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre | ChrisSnyder | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpylDvsoUKS3P2P4mU5BumdLv0Gxj2f5SpmWV_Y-3RSzyv=s96-c | Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)? | gse02w3dnxi | null | null | null | null |
isuh5yz1js | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is it Jon Test-over?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1806831641681138144",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Semiotic Rivalry | 5JyzBvet827GF7Hu9WRr | public | contract | 1,719,617,664,549 | will-jon-tester-be-reelected | SemioticRivalry | Will Jon Tester be reëlected? | null | 0.33 | 102,969.983604 | NO | null | |
6uqqra17jha | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Vote for Jimmy Carter",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SirCryptomind | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,617,694,892 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | SirCryptomind | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 3,668.737952 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 | |
8nifdg3mamd | false | pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "NYT Editorial Board agrees Biden should drop out: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jordan Remaker | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,617,768,611 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JordanRemaker | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | r8y186yto4h | null | null | null | null | |
2bju4v2e729 | false | pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "NYT Editorial Board calling for Biden to drop out: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jordan Remaker | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,617,794,008 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | JordanRemaker | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 142.337268 | NO | 51e4cacd136a | |
qssy67vggd | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok, the moment of truth will be in about half an hour, I'll stream on the manifold discord in case anyone wants to watch with me.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,617,884,898 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | 3k47z2w1a38 | null | null | null | null | |
v3i3lwq940p | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/traders",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@traders",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "CNN transcript is up",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (plus the ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr9d79TNPfc",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "video",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " to confirm). ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "I resolved every YES that I could find",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". Currently, I plan to resolve all other remaining options NO, unless I hear otherwise. Please take a look, and LMK if I missed anything. I'll wait a bit before resolution so people have time to flag anything I might have missed.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(People—including me!—were SO certain he'd say \"folks\", but he only said it exactly once—almost resolved NO!).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | r5mrk7pb1a | public | contract | 1,719,618,106,001 | first-debate-bidenisms-megamarket-w | Ziddletwix | First Debate Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say? | null | null | 2,904.270173 | YES | 2phfc33nfr | |
wq2h4e6ttq | false | d5xiBIhfJaZpKMfZlDfT9d1SOu13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "buy NO to get free mana",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | catto | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,618,110,378 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | catto | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | 0.236164 | 368.665049 | NO | null | |
7axjt8xoyil | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You mean prize points.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,618,136,042 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | nathanwei | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | wq2h4e6ttq | 0.236164 | 128.584976 | NO | null | |
3porddvapxk | false | DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Biden and nonsense is free mana!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Blawd | ZDorRfxLNqK4JzV8x2Sc | public | contract | 1,719,618,159,180 | tump-v-biden-debate-bingo | KevinBlaw | Trump v Biden debate BINGO [First debate hosted by CNN] | null | null | 269.520407 | NO | ji07tlnts7 | |
y9lvdhbm97m | false | bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " - checked news headlines and there doesn't seem to be any government action to prevent the ID governor from having to use a VPN to access his spank bank slideshows. This market will resolve NO. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lukas Day | rmg7s4fun7 | public | contract | 1,719,618,395,927 | will-idaho-take-steps-to-preserve-p | LukasDay | Will Idaho take steps to preserve PornHub access before June 27? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jj6b27d2pq | false | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolve no",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Marcus Abramovitch | 3RMAHTwyxV66ewG7acG9 | public | contract | 1,719,618,415,824 | will-the-us-successfully-broker-a-c | MarcusAbramovitch | Will the US successfully broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by the end of 2023? | null | 0.034434 | 1,052.635634 | NO | null | |
3ush58r0atk | false | GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Eliezer is just free money? How are his chances so close to Chomsky's?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jaundiced Baboon | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,719,618,538,068 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | JaundicedBaboon | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 40.197877 | YES | 6b933f3c5add |
kepspyegu3 | false | GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The odds of yes are surely higher than 35%. Anthropic has already committed to releasing 3.5 Opus later this year. Surely OpenAI will not let that go unanswered for an appreciable length of time",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jaundiced Baboon | RDWu8WcOwoL5MdAr1Wmz | public | contract | 1,719,618,640,438 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e | JaundicedBaboon | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c | Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024? | null | 0.357455 | 66.90951 | YES | null |
kmapzob491 | false | xIkN4EvTFLOtiKnk3Zo66Gp3DyP2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What happened to this market? James Turrell is still alive??",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ali Kapadia | 5JUQwC5QqwEIpnWRtjxj | public | contract | 1,719,618,841,624 | will-roden-crater-be-completed-in-j | AliKapadia | Will Roden Crater be completed in James Turrell's lifetime? | null | 0.065556 | 47.787667 | YES | null | |
z96umfyymx | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm pretty busy this weekend so probably won't have much time to watch, but hope I can carve out some time, because I do love watching Modern. (Even if I'm not a big fan of tuning back in to see SO much turnover in the format with half the cards obsoleted by the latest MH set, RIP)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | ab3pvzwnrq | public | contract | 1,719,618,951,868 | which-deck-will-win-pro-tour-modern | Ziddletwix | Which deck will win Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3? | null | null | 55.475478 | YES | igskpfqym2 | |
cfj4u59ri3 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You can't bring a binary option above 99% anymore, so there's no free money there",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,719,618,978,337 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | Bayesian | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 3ush58r0atk | null | 13.226396 | YES | awwox1mpkj | |
5oextpjopuf | false | GafKInOhxQXMaFQAlcWaY3vdIoZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ah that makes sense lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jaundiced Baboon | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,719,619,030,219 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | JaundicedBaboon | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLeJmQSjR41TC5-jzUMRPyrHztjGjbVuTHUmW6OqRGa31KgA=s96-c | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 3ush58r0atk | null | 40.197877 | YES | 6b933f3c5add |
d1nqh9n1789 | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hmm good points. Surely there must be somebody. otherwise I'll unresolve",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,619,035,212 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | Ernie | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | null | null | null | null | |
vojjj575ewq | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FfMogfCdI6-.jpeg?alt=media&token=dfdadf60-8235-4475-8d01-6485ef575df5",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Well this market seems slow…",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,619,174,814 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | null | 0.544488 | 1,468.677247 | YES | null |
gm5hlwwzhss | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/06/dune-3-release-date-2026-1235986164/amp/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://deadline.com/2024/06/dune-3-release-date-2026-1235986164/amp/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,619,220,376 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.544488 | 1,468.677247 | YES | null |
bayidi38zav | false | dEvAkoH19rTcIENraMy3kZyHOe82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2",
"label": "Aella",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks for the update. I take it the lectures in the comments didn't move you.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Luke Hanks (HankyUSA) | DHGzkbRsfbCUIlz5bf0w | public | contract | 1,719,619,252,180 | will-i-aella-convert-to-christianit | HankyUSA | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrs9Q53gYHp6HbnXlXHhLBPcjB8HOvuaWTt58yPYSM=s96-c | Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
0vjuop2f3ibo | false | 4bJFWVY9E8QCMtL0ygDFkbfZ97y2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "First post-debate poll I've seen has Biden ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "up",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1806835998036250886",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David F Watson | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,619,604,241 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | DavidFWatson | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0wda0GJ4AjSxXnc35f6cEb0ohecX6mHn9A5kvkIffO8_0=s96-c | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | 0.226933 | 191.135321 | NO | null |
e2c1ald2oj6 | false | 4bJFWVY9E8QCMtL0ygDFkbfZ97y2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You don't have to believe the poll to believe that Biden's team will take this as evidence that he shouldn't drop out.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David F Watson | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,619,631,002 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | DavidFWatson | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL0wda0GJ4AjSxXnc35f6cEb0ohecX6mHn9A5kvkIffO8_0=s96-c | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | 0vjuop2f3ibo | 0.226933 | 191.135321 | NO | null |
rbhjukmtri | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "he's said for quite a while now that he would do other projects before Messiah so I can't speak for everyone but I'm personally waiting to see if he has another project he's on as his \"next\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,619,818,342 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | shankypanky | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 103.176207 | NO | null | |
jsshaiu81wj | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolved the rest using the ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "transcript",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | m5i079o53b | public | contract | 1,719,619,890,640 | first-trump-vs-biden-presidential-d | jack | First Trump vs Biden presidential debate mention market: which words/phrases will be said? | 9hfcyviw1h5 | null | 2,199.373634 | YES | 6bnptnp67q | |
xv4kplvuv8 | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The other project is also Legendary. This here is actual news! The market should update!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(The release date is new & sources the reporters talked to. The “he's said for quite a while now“ was a quote from before Dune: Part 2 was released. It would absolutely plausible that the unexpected success fast-tracked the project, so I don't weigh quotes from before much. Stuff like that changes quickly.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,620,100,848 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 1,834.112584 | YES | null |
xx00iavfxo9 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "sell order at 11%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | 1Es6BcA3sdaqBLbKSHu4 | public | contract | 1,719,620,162,092 | by-when-will-kenshin9000-or-anyone | Bayesian | By when will Kenshin9000 (or anyone else) “defeat all chess bots” using LLMs? (Permanent) | null | null | 7,203.628694 | NO | 6a81d47ad378 | |
54s7am7c59u | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't really know what to say if people think this shouldn’t be an update. But ok! Happy to bet.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fi4b5_2vhlj.jpeg?alt=media&token=e6290955-f549-4c5e-a541-a7df5c8c2616",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,620,216,073 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 1,834.112584 | YES | null |
p0i5qvqd36f | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok I'm starting now. I\"ve already run into a problem where the transcript is longer than the 2020 transcript and so pasting it into Claude still works but turns it into an attachment instead of inline. Probably should still work fine but minor change to the prompt will be needed:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Using the attached debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "codeBlock"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,620,435,146 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | null | null | null | null | |
0rqodjty4tm | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok and for ChatGPT, we have this incorrect search result output",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The transcript of the first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which took place on June 27, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia, moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, is not yet available in full. However, highlights and key moments from the debate can be found on various news outlets and platforms that covered the event. For more detailed information and potential full transcripts as they become available, you can check major news websites such as CNN, Fox News, and ABC, or visit the Election Central website (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "text-green-600 !no-underline",
"href": "https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2024-debates/presidential-debate-schedule/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Election Central",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ").",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not a surprise given that in my testing it pulled up the debate once, and pulled up diamonds and something about retail saies in the other two tests ??? Lol.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,620,526,542 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | p0i5qvqd36f | null | null | null | null | |
yfwn66jeifb | false | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That looks correct to me.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JKS | gBbPUOlDYvbmlGNwuWml | public | contract | 1,719,620,694,679 | how-many-times-will-trump-say-china-3b2682baa359 | jks | How many times will Trump say "China" in the first Presidential debate? | qfhbyziq7zd | null | 508.641798 | NO | c2d6b3f3e948 | |
p73bj5cey1 | false | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Started having emotional breakdowns multiple times a day, after a while of this I went off the estrogen, and now I have been depressed for the past few days. Fuck.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Celene | cWyhJjw7Hlj7rCNMmWK5 | public | contract | 1,719,620,723,230 | if-celene-takes-estrogen-will-she-c | Celene | If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect? | null | 0.857173 | 629.34556 | NO | null | |
5t9vz5jjtch | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🤔",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 3ef882zwka | public | contract | 1,719,620,783,528 | will-slasher-win-his-bet-with-dan-t | strutheo | Will Dan win his (proposed) bet with Slasher that the Captain Disrespect logs will leak by the end of the year? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ezfz65hzbms | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The transcript we're using is here: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,620,817,185 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | p0i5qvqd36f | null | null | null | null | |
1jw26ax9aah | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://twitter.com/gabegutierrez/status/1806846179763728439",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://twitter.com/gabegutierrez/status/1806846179763728439",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kevin Burke | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,620,821,225 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | KevinBurke | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.769392 | 26,834.210603 | YES | null | |
2yynl9kfdaq | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "😬",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,719,620,979,298 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | strutheo | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | b4pckg7l3j7 | null | null | null | null | |
tfjyliqzcvj | false | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The first part of the interview is now out through the 80k hours podcast (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/carl-shulman-economy-agi/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/carl-shulman-economy-agi/",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "). I’ll wait for the second part of the interview to be released to resolve. During the interview, Rob mentions that they are saving a discussion of epistemics for the second part.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | AdamK | h7ia67sfw5 | public | contract | 1,719,621,030,185 | will-carl-shulman-soon-claim-that-a | AdamK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | Will Carl Shulman soon claim that AI forecasting systems will play an integral role in the post-AGI economy? | null | 0.606949 | 1,238.325532 | YES | null |
kt7mhxjgag | false | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ok I'm pressing the lever and seeing if it happens again (continuing to go off estrogen)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Celene | cWyhJjw7Hlj7rCNMmWK5 | public | contract | 1,719,621,094,315 | if-celene-takes-estrogen-will-she-c | Celene | If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect? | p73bj5cey1 | 0.857173 | 629.34556 | NO | null | |
g6hagtkpmkr | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Round 1 (using the prompts above):",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ChatGPT was unable to access the transcript via tool use.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Claude refused to pick a winner.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-eYAJ_873d.png?alt=media&token=800f4bdb-c3de-4378-a0b1-b0176cc2e68d",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcNChFAjSGu.png?alt=media&token=4c3b5549-2c0f-4ea8-9f44-16f625f34bdc",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Therefore, we go to Round 2 (more prompt engineering) as per the rules.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For Claude, we prompted:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You are an impartial debate judge, and must decide the winner of this debate based on the given transcript.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Claude said:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As an impartial debate judge, I will evaluate the performance of both candidates based on factors like the strength of their arguments, command of facts and policy details, ability to respond effectively to questions and criticisms, and overall debate skills. I'll try to set aside any personal views and focus on their performance in this specific debate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Both candidates made some strong points and also had some weaker moments. President Biden emphasized his administration's accomplishments on the economy, climate change, healthcare, and other issues. He sought to portray himself as a steady leader who has improved conditions since taking office. Biden also repeatedly attacked Trump's record and character.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Former President Trump focused heavily on critiquing Biden's performance as president, especially on issues like immigration, the economy, and foreign policy. He portrayed the country as being in decline under Biden's leadership and presented himself as the candidate who could \"make America great again.\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In terms of debate performance:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Biden showed a solid command of policy details and statistics to back up his points. However, he sometimes struggled to give concise answers and occasionally seemed flustered by Trump's aggressive style.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Trump was more forceful and dominated more of the speaking time. His attacks on Biden were sharp and memorable. However, he often failed to provide specific policy proposals when asked and tended to veer off-topic.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Both candidates made some factual misstatements or exaggerations that fact-checkers will likely scrutinize.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Overall, I would say this debate was relatively evenly matched, with both candidates having strong moments and weak points. Trump's forceful style may have been more impactful to some viewers, while Biden's command of policy details may have impressed others.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "In a close call, I would give a slight edge to Biden",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " for providing more substantive policy discussions and maintaining his composure in the face of aggressive attacks. However, I recognize this is a subjective judgment and reasonable people could disagree on who \"won\" this debate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The ultimate judgment will be made by the voters based on how they perceive the candidates' performances and whether it influences their voting decisions.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(Emphasis added.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5sMG86zfcc.png?alt=media&token=b163b293-9f83-4b88-a00f-ca82ffbce0c7",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We used a ChatGPT Pro account to prompt it with the entire transcript, using the same prompt as originally intended for Claude, the output is:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FmQfaUcKeZm.png?alt=media&token=966bfa69-ebb0-44ff-a825-2a7d44b8f093",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So ChatGPT also chooses Biden.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves Biden as the winner, based on the infallible LLMs (notably, on the text transcript only of course)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,621,095,729 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | p0i5qvqd36f | null | null | null | null | |
s525pqx8o1p | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1Em4BV2q9h.png?alt=media&token=5aff9796-3d4f-4604-a517-e9e9479319fc",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,621,099,472 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | Joshua | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | 0.112964 | 1,242.505717 | NO | null | |
tuw7o40sqhm | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Let's make another market where we have them judge based on the videos, whenever that feature exists :)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,621,173,072 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jack | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | null | null | null | null | |
mehzcrn2ume | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Feel free to add it. Resolution source did not record any protests in Kenya as of May 2024.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Archibald Crone | WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj | public | contract | 1,719,621,271,654 | in-what-country-will-the-next-mass | BlueDragon | 📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024? | w2hkedzd13l | null | 180.116238 | YES | e41e47504bcc | |
96k0t6bm8o5 | false | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/mods",
"target": "_self"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@mods",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Per the site specified in the resolution criteria ( ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://fantasyscotus.net/case/list/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "https://fantasyscotus.net/case/list/",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ) U.S. vs. Rahimi resolves YES (is a reverse) and Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy resolves NO (is an affirm).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SEE | WaZT7Z8qJariRjp1uF7F | public | contract | 1,719,621,503,873 | -cases-reversed-by-the-supreme-cour | SEE | 🏛️ ⚖️ Cases reversed by the Supreme Court of the United States (2023-2024 term) | 3pdrufl9f95 | null | 1,117.979886 | NO | df15a8dec095 | |
e6y3qd9axbj | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolution for ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "May",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "tldr: none with existing markets.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Mexico",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "Anti-AMLO protest",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "May 2024",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": ">10,000",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Trigger",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has called to defund the country’s independent electoral agencies ahead of the presidential election on June 2, 2024.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Motivation",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oppose AMLO and former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate running for president under AMLO’s Morena party. Express support for opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez. Call for the defense of the country’s independent electoral agencies.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Key participants",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Opposition supporters",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Outcomes",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No policy/leadership change in response to protest.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Taiwan",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "Bluebird Movement against parliamentary reforms",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "May 2024",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": ">10,000",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Trigger",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party passed legislation in Parliament giving lawmakers power to ask the military, private companies, or individuals to disclose information deemed relevant by parliamentarians. The law gives Parliament power to punish those who fail to comply with these requests. It also criminalizes contempt of Parliament by government officials and requires the president to give regular reports to Parliament and answer lawmakers’ questions. Several Kuomintang senior officials have visited China this year to keep open lines of communication as China refuses to talk with President Lai Ching-te or the Democratic Progressive Party, claiming they are \"separatists.\" Members and supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party fear collusion between the Kuomintang and China—although the Kuomintang denies being pro-China.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Motivation",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party protested against the bill, which they say was railroaded through the voting process by lawmakers and lacks adequate checks and balances to prevent abuse. They say the bill could undermine national security, as it would force government officials to disclose critical information of value to China.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Key participants",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Democratic Progressive Party supporters",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Outcomes",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Lai and the cabinet rejected the bill and sent it back for constitutional review.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Archibald Crone | WviL2TdAXHOpfIiUItnj | public | contract | 1,719,621,525,932 | in-what-country-will-the-next-mass | BlueDragon | 📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024? | null | null | 180.116238 | YES | e41e47504bcc | |
lamywaz9c2 | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Verbal proposal to lift the moratorium happened today.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.interfax.ru/russia/968474",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.interfax.ru/russia/968474",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | 94bpfi6yda | public | contract | 1,719,621,546,765 | official-death-penalty-in-russia | KongoLandwalker | Official death penalty in Russia | null | null | null | null | null | |
8mesl3qro2g | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " italy resolves yes",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | d756aPgAviyaCUuFN3ct | public | contract | 1,719,621,711,114 | what-countries-or-regions-will-joe | nikki | What countries or regions will Joe Biden visit in 2024? 49*Y/N many options much mana | null | null | 565.314521 | YES | 44ce0fac154b | |
vvmsedkper | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "also AZ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | d756aPgAviyaCUuFN3ct | public | contract | 1,719,621,730,972 | what-countries-or-regions-will-joe | nikki | What countries or regions will Joe Biden visit in 2024? 49*Y/N many options much mana | 8mesl3qro2g | null | 565.314521 | YES | 44ce0fac154b | |
yqcwaz4wm2b | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/keltan/after-flying-out-from-australia-for",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/keltan/after-flying-out-from-australia-for",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,621,938,820 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | nikki | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 1 | 0 | NO | null | |
w9nf13dygbs | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not sure what you mean about it being before Dune 2 lol - there are tons of articles about him saying it from late 2023/early 2024",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.indiewire.com/news/general-news/denis-villeneuve-detour-before-dune-messiah-1234933531/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.indiewire.com/news/general-news/denis-villeneuve-detour-before-dune-messiah-1234933531/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'd believe it if he had a change of heart and late 2026 is a pretty short timeline to work on two big projects but it's not accurate to say it's not recent news",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm also not suggesting you should bet any differently just giving my personal reasoning, of course ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,622,013,856 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | shankypanky | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 103.176207 | NO | null | |
894c0igyr9k | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "nice",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | 3upPcxRoxrtZb4bDpAKi | public | contract | 1,719,622,048,594 | will-someone-come-from-australia-to | shankypanky | Will someone come from Australia to attend Manifest 2024? | n0syg9a0s3l | 1 | 130.744085 | YES | null | |
s89fb5r3vn | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Both failed to pick a winner at first, and so it resolves NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But we were able to get them to pick winners with just slightly tweaked prompts.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "See ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | o6nlo95onn | public | contract | 1,719,622,335,288 | will-chatgptclaude-pick-a-debate-wi | jack | Will ChatGPT/Claude pick a debate winner? | null | null | -0 | YES | a9ki0u4mt2 | |
6jy2nx13qbf | false | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2",
"label": "AndrewG",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " this doesn't look like a lot, but it's actually 100% of my balance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Andrew G | kjxrjmg7q4 | public | contract | 1,719,622,456,107 | will-there-be-a-second-ballot-for-p | AndrewG | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | Will there be a second ballot for president at the Democratic National Convention? | null | null | null | null | null |
l9gvb2oyr0m | false | aY5Y69raPSVhT9URnCjk6hBhPb83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Jill walked him off the stage at the end holding his hand and back, this can resolve to Yes.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Market Maker | cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3 | public | contract | 1,719,622,467,538 | prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1 | ManifoldMarketmaker | June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets | null | null | 2,087.955257 | NO | 7fcf8c6d99ad | |
dsnvx63wvym | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "AL, 02, 202406290000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 920N, 4390W, , 2, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, NR, VI, 3, 2525 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T, ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "codeBlock"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "TAFB 00Z at TS strength. Along with other fixes it looks like it will likely be rated a TS at 11PM.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyLA9fjwZGa.png?alt=media&token=5c7cc029-843a-4b90-a9be-e40517591481",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Latest model input data has it as a TS as well (CARQ):",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "AL, 02, 2024062900, 01, CARQ, 0, 92N, 427W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 275, 16, BERYL, M, ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "codeBlock"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,622,572,965 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 2,820.261708 | YES | 2snwxarbig | |
6zead0aq46n | false | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "betting on regression to mean; not an endorsement of the course",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Adam | dz5j0b6k30 | public | contract | 1,719,622,651,884 | if-celene-continues-being-off-estro | Adam | If Celene continues being off estrogen will she continue experiencing above baseline levels of depression? | null | 0.393138 | 43.755932 | NO | null | |
73p17x9aqm | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This would be a fun market to annotate 😉 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,622,813,128 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 2,820.261708 | YES | 2snwxarbig | |
30xsajnvnb5 | false | iS0qXutlPscd6K4nZMWilWb6SMG2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I also believe regression to the mean is what's going to happen here, I don't think that this is an actual thing where estrogen makes me not depressed",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Celene | dz5j0b6k30 | public | contract | 1,719,623,155,879 | if-celene-continues-being-off-estro | Celene | If Celene continues being off estrogen will she continue experiencing above baseline levels of depression? | 6zead0aq46n | null | null | null | null | |
c7z2jzeopj | false | y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "“I'm not sure what you mean about it being before Dune 2 lol - there are tons of articles about him saying it from late 2023/early 2024“",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dune: Part 2 hit theatres in March 2024? Your piece is from December 2023?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There aren't any quotes by Villeneuve since the box office results came in so strong — this was roughly middle of March to beginning of April. (I'd be happy if you find any though!)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I know you're not trying to get me to bet differently, neither am I trying to get you to! I'm just confused by the claims.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Mannhart | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,623,596,977 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | JonathanMannhart | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 1,834.112584 | YES | null |
71odds5dgrp | false | VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuTu18SfU6w.png?alt=media&token=6974c41f-5f87-49a8-bd1d-a36ea95300d4",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Al Quinn | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,719,623,673,838 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | b4pckg7l3j7 | 0.109992 | 333.333333 | YES | null |
ldx49fuqzjf | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#02L",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#02L",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "calling it Beryl",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,623,853,862 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 1,813.343824 | YES | kdg1j6qwrs |
vsqudgpgym | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What happens if he's not longer the nominee and RCP drops their coverage?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel | 0MtsZecRUqcadX7Rksm1 | public | contract | 1,719,623,883,691 | has-biden-bottomed-in-the-rcp-polli | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Has Biden bottomed? (In the RCP polling average) | null | 0.380832 | 574.070011 | YES | null |
g254uz1x0wn | false | 4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since the resolver is banned, will this market ever resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Eric Zhu | 7Noix6EKZN6WlYXvDeSz | public | contract | 1,719,623,897,401 | will-multiple-nuclear-weapons-be-de | EricZhu | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwS96LK82L2BHeWwAKQ5BGUK0vOjwgZXMXaXONBMqTYi-vgZ48=s96-c | Will multiple nuclear weapons be detonated during 2024? | null | 0.102575 | 55.637116 | NO | null |
xcq78xpcg2e | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbyDs8iFXwU.png?alt=media&token=11fa28b8-ce24-4546-bf89-77872a68dd00",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looks joeover (for NO bettors on the related main market) for the rest of the month (trend is only rising temps where as ERA5 averages from 2023 trend downward).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(Does that meme work here?)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | YRQDYg4a5ohNnT1iIkXb | public | contract | 1,719,623,961,153 | global-average-temperature-june-202 | parhizj | Global Average Temperature June 2024 per gistemp LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period | null | null | 502.383449 | YES | fe7fdf902df7 | |
nmmdjgpk8nc | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since EURO 2004, if a referee was selected to officiate the final, his country would go to the final in the following EURO edition.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In EURO 2004, referee Markus Merk from Germany officiated the final between Portugal and Greece. Germany then went to the final of EURO 2008.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In EURO 2008, Italian referee Roberto Rosetti officiated the final between Spain and Germany. Italy then went to the final of EURO 2012.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In EURO 2012, Portuguese referee Pedro Proença officiated the final between Spain and Italy. Portugal went to the final of EURO 2016.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In EURO 2016, English referee Mark Clattenburg officiated the final between France and Portugal. England went to the final of EURO 2020.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "EURO 2020, the referee selected for the final was Björn Kuipers from Netherlands.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Universal FC ⚽ | XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF | public | contract | 1,719,624,030,962 | which-country-will-win-euro-2024 | UniversalFC | Which country will win Euro 2024? | null | null | 1,131.777094 | YES | e6f33a256b53 | |
vfyuh469zzn | false | PJ6ywFzkSDMvKoNuqjUS2ljyxVZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/media/nyt-editorial-board-biden-2024-presidential-race",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/media/nyt-editorial-board-biden-2024-presidential-race",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | GCS | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,624,128,420 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | GCS | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | null | 0.266215 | 1,162.407416 | YES | null | |
1dnzsfc88vw | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I would bet they pull the naming and vitals from the COM directory or some similar mirror:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/com/?C=M;O=D",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/com/?C=M;O=D",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I read on a educational/training type powerpoint (last year?) that it was not absolutely definitive that the NHC forecaster couldn't change their mind on the advisory in between feeding the computer models and the advisory time. (I was going to switch my bet to 85% on June 28 on seeing the latest fixes/IR before the TAFB fix and then the subsequent .com updates)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,624,146,230 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | ldx49fuqzjf | null | 2,820.261708 | YES | 2snwxarbig | |
7xa7xfrud3p | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://phys.org/news/2024-03-technological-pans-teflon-effective-coatings.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://phys.org/news/2024-03-technological-pans-teflon-effective-coatings.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FW021tW44wq.png?alt=media&token=1ccf1d36-cbbb-4021-a7c9-0f00a1744483",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | z64vr8zokm | public | contract | 1,719,624,180,637 | will-teflon-or-other-related-nonsti-k9sssb368o | strutheo | Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2027? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hdjpawyb9ft | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Poll closed 6 days ago now. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "5 options tied for 5th place. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think either we resolve those to 20% each or do another poll between those 5. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " lot of volume in this market",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,719,624,213,504 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 4qk2vltha1 | null | 642.067566 | NO | u71zgrfjae |
i88uuunlded | false | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I wish it was like neurons in his brains.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Craig Talbert | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,624,315,449 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 1jw26ax9aah | 0.764098 | 175.57437 | NO | null |
26196217wf6 | false | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Here's my attempt at a prompt: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://pastebin.com/g0kDc8V3",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://pastebin.com/g0kDc8V3",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I used this to generate the following examples with Claude:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "heartbreak // cardiac arrest",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is \"heartbreak\" a set phrase? Yes, it means intense emotional distress. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is \"cardiac arrest\" a set phrase? Yes, it's a medical condition. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do \"heartbreak\" and \"cardiac arrest\" have different meanings? ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are \"heart\" and \"cardiac\" synonyms? Yes, they both relate to the heart. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are \"break\" and \"arrest\" synonyms? Yes, they can both mean to stop suddenly. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is this an unparalleled misalignment? ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "hard drive // difficult journey",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is \"hard drive\" a set phrase? Yes, it's a computer storage device. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is \"difficult journey\" a set phrase? It's a common phrase, though not as fixed. ❓",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do they have different meanings? A storage device vs. a challenging trip. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are \"hard\" and \"difficult\" synonyms? Yes, they both mean challenging. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are \"drive\" and \"journey\" synonyms? They can both refer to a trip. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is this an unparalleled misalignment? ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "big shot // great round",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is \"big shot\" a set phrase? Yes, it means an important or influential person. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is \"great round\" a set phrase? Yes, it's used in golf to describe an excellent game. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(I think this is ❓ at best)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "bulletList"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do they have different meanings? An influential person vs. an excellent golf score. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are \"big\" and \"great\" synonyms? Yes, they can both mean important or significant. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are \"shot\" and \"round\" synonyms? Yes, they can both refer to a turn in a game or sport. ✅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Caleb Biddulph | bigmUbDeA9JyXdfdyIPW | public | contract | 1,719,624,651,430 | will-any-foundation-modelsllms-be-a | CDBiddulph | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
fzab84vkip8 | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2",
"label": "AmmonLam",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_LlX4t0A9I",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_LlX4t0A9I",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "150M reached",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | v4tUL0OuX82UwiA9WwU6 | public | contract | 1,719,624,911,934 | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-852856944e63 | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 150M views? | null | 0.989627 | 983.289617 | YES | null |
r9wiyuztxd | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "yes I don't see a reason it shouldn't be. one of my fellow mods is supposedly taking over BTEs markets iirc",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | 7Noix6EKZN6WlYXvDeSz | public | contract | 1,719,624,972,060 | will-multiple-nuclear-weapons-be-de | Stralor | Will multiple nuclear weapons be detonated during 2024? | g254uz1x0wn | 0.102575 | 235.585623 | NO | null | |
5xtzt3kpdpl | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The cost went down, it used to be 250, I should be able to swing it this month.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Universal FC ⚽ | 028a6RvwdTE8vDtjlJGW | public | contract | 1,719,625,844,378 | major-league-soccer-mls-2024-regula | UniversalFC | Major League Soccer (MLS) ⚽ 2024 Regular Season Matches | ybdd3rzy07e | null | 13,998.762744 | NO | b6c63e760349 | |
pfhgjze1yk | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "this graph gives me motion sickness ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,719,625,966,345 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | shankypanky | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | b4pckg7l3j7 | 0.109992 | 181.07992 | YES | null | |
jo07akaie17 | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah I'd assume \"select distinct identity from 'people at manifest as as guests, ie as participants not working for manifold or the venue etc'\" ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | kcQ5QrbNhn3TxvX0pzjd | public | contract | 1,719,626,353,505 | how-many-people-will-attend-manifes-25d90d0299f8 | Ernie | How many people will attend Manifest 2024? | du3ib75mo5k | null | 73.648362 | YES | badb5fff4da3 | |
bbm5g2x00z | false | 2Piyl3HbmWbSJWHJhvyOZDdVPGK2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zgELhW63O7VsHREpHEdEPesmECs2",
"label": "ORACLE",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Sanofi in public? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Charles Petty | ODNgeLSVcNAyMkOrkkCB | public | contract | 1,719,626,368,983 | -stock-ipo-2024-which-companies-wil | CharlesPetty | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp72Y_JRXFgU4xBIEHjENUi9OSRvC_IcY9GFNLfUhO8=s96-c | Which companies will successfully launch an IPO in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
i7r5dt9a35g | false | z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the guest list includes 646 ppl (this does include staff, but it would be >600 even if it didn't). But there were 70 no shows, so by ppl who actually showed up, it should resolve 501-600.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Rachel | kcQ5QrbNhn3TxvX0pzjd | public | contract | 1,719,626,783,747 | how-many-people-will-attend-manifes-25d90d0299f8 | rachel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr7YCsixsa7V2jXk_XiVJPYixsOTsXOURbZDyqIAQ=s96-c | How many people will attend Manifest 2024? | du3ib75mo5k | null | 64.584073 | YES | badb5fff4da3 |
t44qftuje3 | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolves yes, 9 on official channel, 1 on your channel",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | bdy2orno8b | public | contract | 1,719,626,788,451 | one-month-from-today-will-ten-or-mo | nikki | One month from today, will ten or more of the Manifest 2024 talks have been uploaded on YouTube for public viewing? | null | 0.99 | 1,000.861722 | YES | null | |
5z22ixbydio | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yep. NYT Editorial Board, Nate Silver, Bill Ackman... ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A lot of people but we'll see.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Niko | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,719,627,638,730 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | Moscow25 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | vfyuh469zzn | 0.266565 | 0 | NO | null | |
gp89tdhcnwa | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why not wait with declaring it N/A til/ifl Biden drops out? Did I miss some breaking news?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Enlil | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,251,435 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | Enlil | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | null | null | null | null | null | |
occc69xdue | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Tomorrow I will create a market to bet on the results of this poll. It will be open through July 4th. I’m surprised no one else has asked this after the debate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Charlie Bauer | 7qu4tse2vh | public | contract | 1,719,628,264,847 | should-joe-biden-be-the-2024-democr | CharlieBauer | Should Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee? | null | null | null | null | null | |
9erlgicj15u | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "because as it is the probabilities are wrong and it makes the market a lot more confusing. for example, if trump is at 60% in that market, since the kamala and other options are implicitly at 0%, his true probability according to the market might be like 55% or something",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,337,489 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | Bayesian | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | gp89tdhcnwa | null | 17.395645 | YES | fpvtqzcqzv | |
gyl8yoerx7q | false | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm skeptical that local LLMs count as \"commercially available AI products\" ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bohaska | osbD00CDUgcQGPHhH0mn | public | contract | 1,719,628,532,458 | ai-capabilities-2024-mega-market | bohaska | AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market] 🤖🦾🦿 | fylc5ab77b7 | null | 37.744901 | NO | d83065f830c4 | |
qnq8f74r5x | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Clearly marking the market as broken, unlisting it, and/or closing it are other possibilities that fix that and cause less damage than N/A.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jack | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,590,927 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | jack | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | gp89tdhcnwa | null | null | null | null | |
z7ibj65uznh | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Resolve it N/A if Kamala Harris or other candidate wins the election\" is a terrible idea. There's no downside to betting Trump to 90% or something",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,655,925 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | nikki | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | null | null | null | null | null | |
nlbi9u4toi | false | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "jason palmer for VP",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Magnus | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,628,672,065 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | thepurplebull | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 6uqqra17jha | null | 1,178.299743 | YES | 51e4cacd136a |
eogd99a4xd9 | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ideally, transfer the shares to another market",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,690,877 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | nikki | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | z7ibj65uznh | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.