id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73mvu8fax33 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Bayesian | cfbBONt0Sv5UtSpeonm4 | public | contract | 1,719,628,732,302 | will-there-be-a-blanket-amnesty-gra | Bayesian | Will there be a blanket amnesty granted to Catalan separatists by July 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
txo9ug5pfg | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In that case, the market would just be \"conditional on it being one of this list, who will win?\" which is an ok question, though obviously it's not w... | Jack | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,788,286 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | jack | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | z7ibj65uznh | null | null | null | null | |
m6l021s1bu9 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I pulled one out of the air and dropped it there but I think we've already spent more time than I'd like to on the back and forth on the topic since we... | stefanie | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,628,861,096 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | shankypanky | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 103.176207 | NO | null | |
bhsm5pryfts | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "if we don't N/A it I think modifying the question to make this obvious would be good. My concern is with people reading off the probabilities on that m... | Bayesian | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,921,646 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | Bayesian | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | z7ibj65uznh | null | 17.395645 | YES | fpvtqzcqzv | |
41reiof8n8y | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "thanks rachel!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | kcQ5QrbNhn3TxvX0pzjd | public | contract | 1,719,628,953,995 | how-many-people-will-attend-manifes-25d90d0299f8 | shankypanky | How many people will attend Manifest 2024? | du3ib75mo5k | null | 4,427.521038 | YES | 10eae74c66b0 | |
kwuieh8vcvk | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yes. If the question stays open, then it MUST be edited. We said that like 4 months ago and yet nobody did it.",
"type": "text"
}
... | Jack | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,628,964,434 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | jack | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | z7ibj65uznh | null | null | null | null | |
wp8cqn834hm | false | bN0pddoCHSe4a0QW7m7OpTWQw3x1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm pretty sure that it doesn't act that fast ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jade | odbafhkhv6 | public | contract | 1,719,629,008,113 | if-celene-gets-injected-with-24mg-e | euclaise | If Celene gets injected with 2-4mg estrogen will she feel inexplicably better the next day | null | 0.59 | 64.848715 | NO | null | |
lktmaww1xh | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ok now that we have the ability to do this ourselves, I edited the title with a warning for now while this discussion is ongoing.",
"type": "... | Jack | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,629,017,828 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | jack | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | z7ibj65uznh | null | null | null | null | |
3a9p1kbj2hb | false | 0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Gordan Knott | wrb2sb6mfi | public | contract | 1,719,629,026,033 | will-alex-pereira-make-weight-for-u | GordanKnott | Will Alex Pereira make weight for UFC303? | null | null | null | null | null | |
sgeau9brir | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "thanks jack!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,629,126,794 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | Bayesian | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | z7ibj65uznh | null | 27.5975 | NO | fqdjqq6044 | |
17cxa75updu | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(I also assumed 'before Dune 2' meant before he did the movie, not before it was released. so that part was a miscommunication as well)",
"ty... | stefanie | Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ | public | contract | 1,719,629,155,838 | will-denis-villeneuves-next-film-be | shankypanky | Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune? | vojjj575ewq | 0.635062 | 103.176207 | NO | null | |
vq8v0paq02e | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "ment... | JRP | rvhupovwx2 | public | contract | 1,719,629,360,453 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Beryl in 2024? | null | null | 1,653.185832 | YES | kdg1j6qwrs | |
799munilpvo | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There is barely any liquidity. Games gone.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Official | 028a6RvwdTE8vDtjlJGW | public | contract | 1,719,629,571,167 | major-league-soccer-mls-2024-regula | 10thOfficial | Major League Soccer (MLS) ⚽ 2024 Regular Season Matches | ybdd3rzy07e | null | 29,881.102654 | NO | df080d6e048f | |
4xpcffm15a | false | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Attempt For 11th in June ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
... | SirCryptomind | Vfbh1SIHiVchCo5TuogD | public | contract | 1,719,629,721,943 | how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-a6470c3e84d7 | SirCryptomind | 🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During June 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
qfr4t30k05c | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I’ll take my 200k to your 10k against Michelle Obama if I don’t have to post collateral ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "p... | Jonathan Ray | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,629,732,718 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JonathanRay | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | lurn1lloqj | 0.744522 | 2,086,380.434276 | YES | null | |
4trex5tmhua | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market is temporarily closed while I evaluate whether Tumbles is solvent. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"... | nikki | 5SC5ys1Te5pkITvDA5eh | public | contract | 1,719,629,827,968 | will-tumbles-ever-take-out-a-loan-t | nikki | @Tumbles Credit Score Market | null | 0.14 | -0 | NO | null | |
vg8127mmvx | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "we're fools for not buying this up throughout the day",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc... | Bayesian | 5SC5ys1Te5pkITvDA5eh | public | contract | 1,719,629,877,501 | will-tumbles-ever-take-out-a-loan-t | Bayesian | @Tumbles Credit Score Market | 4trex5tmhua | 0.14 | 554.588185 | NO | null | |
kiepv0rzb | false | 4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Homelessness is complex. Its causes are many. So may be the public policy responses required to address it. The question this case presents is whethe... | Eric Zhu | l6GLBULgEO7chSZiHetK | public | contract | 1,719,630,111,504 | how-will-the-supreme-court-rule-on-593d43e00710 | EricZhu | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwS96LK82L2BHeWwAKQ5BGUK0vOjwgZXMXaXONBMqTYi-vgZ48=s96-c | How will the Supreme Court rule on whether homeless sweeps and fines violate the 8th amendment? [ ONE RESOLUTION ] | null | null | 102.084665 | YES | 4a50e9a985d9 |
fer0x3a7di | false | bN0pddoCHSe4a0QW7m7OpTWQw3x1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is headscritch another word for headscratch or is it something else ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],... | Jade | kdGoGHtp78X3iDb6XJbs | public | contract | 1,719,630,627,746 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-administer-h | euclaise | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky administer headpats or headscritches to tetraspace in February 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
nn2pjdxdge | false | 7Bj5HMJ0odhpaAOakIX7ZuiHx9x2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolved ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nav | 9gdudaDVjwlSQDGgawJ3 | public | contract | 1,719,630,645,847 | will-gme-reach-100-before-the-end-o | navitron32 | Will GME reach $100 before the end of June 2024 | mm3r06j5u1r | 0 | 0 | YES | null | |
482chhcquux | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah that was clearly unreasonable. Fixed",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | rmqowryzty | public | contract | 1,719,631,148,761 | is-manifold-overreacting-or-underre | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)? | 3eb6b06t6tn | null | 520.594956 | YES | 4cen9462m8 |
n2qfjcccrrf | false | Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The debate was so insane it highlighted how meek this talking point was. So much so that fewer people voted on the poll than bet on this market about t... | Quillist | 5l0bx922jo | public | contract | 1,719,631,293,038 | would-manifold-users-have-a-negativ | Quillist | Would Manifold users have a negative opinion of their President if they use performance enhancing drugs before a debate? | null | null | null | null | null | |
xyj5i0e5cya | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "edit: yeah I think resolving them all to 20% is fine, anyone disagree?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | jackson polack | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,719,631,371,468 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 4qk2vltha1 | null | null | null | null |
jjj6l7efy3r | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Only 4 options in the poll got more than 1 vote. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": n... | Daniel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,719,631,435,884 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 4qk2vltha1 | null | 642.067566 | NO | u71zgrfjae |
utfnhh5acsp | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There aren't a clear top five, because several tied for fifth place. Need clarification from OP",
"type": "text"
}
],
"ty... | jim | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,719,631,444,035 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | jim | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 4qk2vltha1 | null | 5,622.398255 | NO | be5da8403dad | |
15yvtcvkbch | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No disagreement from me on resolving them to 20% each. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "d... | Daniel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,719,631,490,326 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 4qk2vltha1 | null | 642.067566 | NO | u71zgrfjae |
iy2sws16rc | false | AVrpw4A7bxQNXMcTbT3ZcD3nUFC3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Alexander Turok | 6gygkz9jnc | public | contract | 1,719,631,548,124 | how-many-democratic-members-of-cong | AlexanderTurok | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc4U0grSt-LLJxLxUgw3SE1k-1NtxaWv0LH5KO5lgFC=s96-c | How many Democratic members of Congress will call on Biden to step aside by 7/7? | null | null | null | null | null |
q2fvkw38kre | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | 5SC5ys1Te5pkITvDA5eh | public | contract | 1,719,631,579,271 | will-tumbles-ever-take-out-a-loan-t | nikki | @Tumbles Credit Score Market | null | 0.14 | -0 | NO | null | |
71w5t2y9g5d | false | 4riEolq08YSVMg6GArRX7r4u5wk1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don’t know how to close periods as NO as they become past. Advice, anyone?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Tracy Harms | d8cza0006x | public | contract | 1,719,631,624,877 | when-will-the-bolivian-government-o | TracyHarms | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwX8bEpVTyS_SFiZjatythaw9ZQG6fsp6PuvnJiZdJOFtEaVXw=s96-c | When will the Bolivian government of President Luis Arce fall to military pressure? | null | null | null | null | null |
yt4gu2h9qk | false | nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why not \"Will Jimmy Carter win the 2024 presidential election\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"... | David Bolin | S6kIpYOkfBLa2hclkGck | public | contract | 1,719,631,826,478 | will-jimmy-carter-vote-in-the-2024 | DavidBolin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c | Will Jimmy Carter vote in the 2024 presidential election | null | null | null | null | null |
2x23066wk16 | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "'tis but a scratch, a mere flesh wound",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising | 5SC5ys1Te5pkITvDA5eh | public | contract | 1,719,631,916,543 | will-tumbles-ever-take-out-a-loan-t | Tumbles | @Tumbles Credit Score Market | q2fvkw38kre | 0.14 | 23,379.531629 | NO | null | |
fcdjwpuulx | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising | 5SC5ys1Te5pkITvDA5eh | public | contract | 1,719,632,036,765 | will-tumbles-ever-take-out-a-loan-t | Tumbles | @Tumbles Credit Score Market | q2fvkw38kre | 0.14 | 23,379.531629 | NO | null | |
44fe4oixn99 | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "You're fine if Biden is the nominee. If not, the pile of cards comes crashing down",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragra... | nikki | 5SC5ys1Te5pkITvDA5eh | public | contract | 1,719,632,299,207 | will-tumbles-ever-take-out-a-loan-t | nikki | @Tumbles Credit Score Market | q2fvkw38kre | 0.14 | -0 | NO | null | |
67oni3t74a | false | X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since they used to actually nominate people at the conventions, I think its pretty doable for them to do it again. Also, it would make for some damned ... | TonyBaloney | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,632,773,820 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | TonyBaloney | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKQ9S1VV681EQ-QI8QJ3LPkdZNkGI8cjbKD1NC5W0LhCQ=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | sa6196jbft | null | 606,687.295617 | YES | 230d5d1b7613 |
yymmrw8we | false | Dy1KeRQcZbQgI7oeMHJbsrBpOii2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "While the article is behind a paywall it reports something I was looking for.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | sortwie | cfbBONt0Sv5UtSpeonm4 | public | contract | 1,719,632,951,311 | will-there-be-a-blanket-amnesty-gra | sortwie | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjUOTnGv06_d41TEAmkKaLChX2qkmdzsAyrh-Rupw=s96-c | Will there be a blanket amnesty granted to Catalan separatists by July 2024? | 73mvu8fax33 | null | null | null | null |
ly0xcoj8x7t | false | PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Where is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dan. W. | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,633,023,735 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | DanW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | null | null | null |
bb8b6ho01b | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(sorry accidentally replied to wrong comment and don't see a way to delete)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Enlil | euLZt4Zl5Ba9HtlcEvYw | public | contract | 1,719,633,092,186 | paliens-is-there-humanlevel-or-abov | Enlil | P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way? | 1hlrew719ja | 0.598359 | 163.909292 | YES | null | |
926pwk4rfj6 | false | fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "He has my full throated endorsement as one of the few people who can bail us out. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragra... | Zac Parker | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,633,098,699 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | ZacParker | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | ly0xcoj8x7t | null | 0 | YES | 088d6b2862b1 | |
zweftt1gjr | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How does this resolve if we find out that the simulation ends outside the solar system and everything outside of it is just a fancy skybox?",
... | Enlil | euLZt4Zl5Ba9HtlcEvYw | public | contract | 1,719,633,198,610 | paliens-is-there-humanlevel-or-abov | Enlil | P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way? | null | 0.598359 | 163.909292 | YES | null | |
bfft4a6oein | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Archibald Crone | QtGNEAu9Kto0wZoPEYc7 | public | contract | 1,719,633,449,007 | if-democrats-have-a-brokered-democr | BlueDragon | 🫏 🇺🇸 If Democrats have a brokered Democratic convention, will it be a political disaster? | null | null | null | null | null | |
etkwy3aqv7f | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Would you say each point is worth 25%? Or you need all or else it resolves NO? Or something else",
"type": "text"
}
],
"t... | Bayesian | cfbBONt0Sv5UtSpeonm4 | public | contract | 1,719,633,674,904 | will-there-be-a-blanket-amnesty-gra | Bayesian | Will there be a blanket amnesty granted to Catalan separatists by July 2024? | 73mvu8fax33 | 0.793342 | 207.584403 | YES | null | |
eluulytatdw | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How does THIS market resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,633,801,798 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | null | null | null | null | null |
6ku3p442hgv | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Predictor 🔥 | UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C | public | contract | 1,719,633,851,286 | uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop | Predictor | UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE! | lyw321e881p | null | 982.92708 | YES | vc2r6tc9t8 | |
ynk1v3370ns | false | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "yeah whoops I should have made this a “Vote” maybe ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
... | Kevin Burke | eff5n2jmg3 | public | contract | 1,719,634,090,890 | what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden | KevinBurke | What should we do with the "Presidential Election" market that excludes Kamala Harris and other candidates | eluulytatdw | null | 0 | NO | fpvtqzcqzv | |
jjpi4fzu84f | false | 66e69xtuxcaOANdzvof19Vm4HFL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This decision will almost certainly come down on Monday, along with the NetChoice cases. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": ... | HoldingC | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,719,634,476,794 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | HoldingC | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | null | null | 1,799.854122 | YES | 91e64ef624cb | |
ob7qjb9qpte | false | aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Fascinating question! I enjoyed hearing the answer, even though I lost.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | Tricky Duck | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,634,477,350 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | TrickyDuck | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | 0 | 31.776295 | YES | null | |
n45ikslba8c | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Totally insane this market got as high as it did!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | b2jozj13on | public | contract | 1,719,634,591,983 | who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid | jim | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | null | 0 | 126.105949 | YES | null | |
6ugmgodonm6 | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Clinton/Carter has a nice ring to it",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,634,641,801 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | jim | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 6uqqra17jha | null | 586,193.567336 | YES | e86ab6ec0ad9 | |
dnb7jz19v4 | false | uDrHEdes2dVBpCmqhDGRZynnC1L2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | wfco223 | ppaxcmhvq6 | public | contract | 1,719,634,787,349 | who-will-spend-more-time-speaking-d | WilliamCox | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEPjKnLjm-V3FiRja4RpvT95mAX8ST3dxpphrndbTs=s96-c | Who will spend more time speaking during the first Presidential Debate 6/27 | null | null | 424.185851 | NO | y2p823jhix |
pnwpsa0ksz | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Gaz Downright | UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C | public | contract | 1,719,634,904,453 | uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop | GazDownright | UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE! | null | null | 1,700.792135 | YES | rr95gvgn8p | |
xakz5zs96p | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What's the resolution source? Do you have any way of checking how many full-time employees they have?",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Muga Sofer | yeSSeG7xbWqhWWTILp0k | public | contract | 1,719,634,918,192 | will-openai-have-more-than-1500-emp | MugaSofer | Will OpenAI have more than 1500 employees by mid 2024? | null | 0.383298 | 85.88357 | NO | null | |
noz51mzy46a | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think that sounds reasonable",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,719,635,519,459 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 4qk2vltha1 | null | 524.766152 | NO | f057d27647f7 |
lm5tz8v03uj | false | FgtzRB8rvKcfULHYqwPukdHjG1j1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "no chance lmao",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Target_edge | ybYWB55YIu7ZZPBMU5f1 | public | contract | 1,719,635,825,652 | one-piece-chapter-1107-spoilers-wil | Target_edge | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIyGgVF_VSHRCaTKizwFDm5joa9mGVjmsYfcWAK8mP78I-nkTRp=s96-c | One Piece chapter #1107 Spoilers - Will shanks come to egghead by the end of the arc? | null | null | null | null | null |
lsq5beygdul | false | 6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What city do you live in? How big is \"area I frequent\"?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": ... | James Baker | vWMshpCQIDfbu5lHMPP1 | public | contract | 1,719,635,852,599 | will-a-mass-shooting-event-affect-m | JamesBaker3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c | Will a mass shooting event affect me in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
v7mpbbs4f4q | false | 7rOJimfGo9ZrZL7JoXrFm2YIWRR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I made a version of this market which allows for closed source LLMs: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Ryan Greenblatt | AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi | public | contract | 1,719,635,888,970 | will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai | RyanGreenblatt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1l6TCyKOFjuF65GKtAKRLBTURZwZ_bJoQG256L=s96-c | Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
8dp8tcx67c7 | false | 7rOJimfGo9ZrZL7JoXrFm2YIWRR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I made a version of this market which allows for closed source LLMs: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Ryan Greenblatt | W1KGdImLB5cb1p75M88e | public | contract | 1,719,635,902,690 | will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1 | RyanGreenblatt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1l6TCyKOFjuF65GKtAKRLBTURZwZ_bJoQG256L=s96-c | Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
viqwt5khk5p | false | En8K1OQlFiP299l0BwZTCTZzG3Q2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don’t have the mana to do it, but I’ll greatly appreciate if someone makes a numerical market on WHEN the hard problem of consciousness will be solve... | Arkhos | YUOgncRy7YQohNwzd07W | public | contract | 1,719,636,125,968 | if-the-hard-problem-of-consciousnes | Arkhos | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVY-kYDY0_k6HzlIF128JQa5QLUOlY7lidjyUHL88xWRvLMRM=s96-c | If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it? | null | null | null | null | null |
t0k50rhelnt | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do you want a literal poll, or a numerical market?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | YUOgncRy7YQohNwzd07W | public | contract | 1,719,636,234,362 | if-the-hard-problem-of-consciousnes | jim | If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it? | viqwt5khk5p | null | 14.008478 | NO | 126f7f4ecba5 | |
g5jayaqvxsl | false | En8K1OQlFiP299l0BwZTCTZzG3Q2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I meant a numerical market, I mistyped",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Arkhos | YUOgncRy7YQohNwzd07W | public | contract | 1,719,636,304,338 | if-the-hard-problem-of-consciousnes | Arkhos | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVY-kYDY0_k6HzlIF128JQa5QLUOlY7lidjyUHL88xWRvLMRM=s96-c | If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it? | viqwt5khk5p | null | null | null | null |
2hvfcyjcwd5 | false | MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How on earth anybody on this jury thinks she is guilty beyond reasonable doubt is beyond me TBH",
"type": "text"
}
],
"ty... | CodeandSolder | iNgnYPhSJonrD4RTH8so | public | contract | 1,719,636,970,946 | will-karen-read-be-found-not-guilty | CodeandSolder | Will Karen Read be found NOT GUILTY on all the crimes she is charged with? | aazexdknl8l | 0.57879 | 100.213593 | YES | null | |
xbq1kcdzw9 | false | En8K1OQlFiP299l0BwZTCTZzG3Q2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "AI art is literally banned in most left-leaning subreddits since they “steal” from artists and online artists tend to be left-wing ",
"type":... | Arkhos | SvpCN8Bjkvp1ngm8avGz | public | contract | 1,719,636,994,253 | if-the-leftright-culture-war-comes-1cc8384e933c | Arkhos | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVY-kYDY0_k6HzlIF128JQa5QLUOlY7lidjyUHL88xWRvLMRM=s96-c | If the left/right culture war comes for AI before US elections, will the right be the pro-AI side? | null | null | null | null | null |
c1fpia3xqu7 | false | wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Rubio would be the one changing his residency. Reportedly, he would resign his seat and move to Maryland. Technically, he wouldn’t have to resign his s... | FoxKHTML | vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN | public | contract | 1,719,637,324,607 | who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445 | FoxKHTML | Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP) | 3tbvh4fxaet | null | 140,605.654064 | YES | 086ed0cbbf50 | |
8552n4hwh84 | false | cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Am I wrong to strongly overweigh the importance of the NYT & its editorial board? And to view them as a proxy for what people (esp. dem insiders) with ... | Elf | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,637,535,377 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | elf | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 16,367.089596 | YES | 500052fabf02 | |
xxnorbldqb | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "A reflection: One thing I didn't think about when making this market is the fact that Biden's chances dropped from both his lower chance of beating Tru... | Daniel | CjxVDSqcvTlnlaZMoPSo | public | contract | 1,719,637,547,442 | will-joe-biden-win-the-first-debate-1e043f9afcf8 | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump? (According to manifold) | null | null | null | null | null |
6g555lc54ts | false | 7cHLitSmqdYIvr3OskswGMzWX103 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since this was a Q&A question during a NASA press conference, I'm comfortable taking this as sufficient evidence to resolve a few of these.",
... | Dan Homerick | 483un7g09i | public | contract | 1,719,637,563,316 | what-will-be-true-about-spacexs-deo | DanHomerick | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP4VSkxqlzJSD6sryGpPRfqkVJjAt25wLa6ZsgWUJ30DI=s96-c | What will be true about SpaceX's deorbit tug | ub3244spp4d | null | null | null | null |
g052sqf5zj | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "NYT famously has a feud with Biden.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Semiotic Rivalry | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,637,716,437 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | SemioticRivalry | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 8552n4hwh84 | null | 74,319.04279 | NO | 51e4cacd136a | |
jjmcszwlr6l | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I missed one ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label... | Daniel | fGylrlMOE85dW2oF1br3 | public | contract | 1,719,637,731,395 | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-cd14f41c8800 | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Jun 2024 surpass 4M views? | uprh2wu08c | 0.989945 | 1,488.797663 | YES | null |
hf20m27hkw | false | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "yeah it might take 2 or 3",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | April | odbafhkhv6 | public | contract | 1,719,637,908,536 | if-celene-gets-injected-with-24mg-e | April | If Celene gets injected with 2-4mg estrogen will she feel inexplicably better the next day | wp8cqn834hm | null | null | null | null | |
flfnr77hati | false | rhpWHgxsxKNsfjJztZbg4rXfpvm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I hope you're being facetious re. a coup attempt, but it's a good way to visualize things regardless. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | betszn | CD010okuK8AWLkGaQaUT | public | contract | 1,719,638,891,997 | who-will-be-trumps-vp-nominee | szn | Who will be Trump’s VP Nominee? | 7lpr7ki5qmy | null | 2,594.325454 | YES | 0fc4a9e09af4 | |
5vf0xh10mnu | false | dZG4tTBMFKTGknyn1ZUWjB7pmXz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not happening in a billion years. Get real guys, Biden is the nominee, they aren't pulling some comical last-minute switcheroo.",
"type": "te... | JS | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,639,368,873 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | JS_81 | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.770375 | 803.989294 | YES | null | |
p0iauye931 | false | mQO6n13PJlUulZKuPiimkRvuX0s1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i will resolve this after 50 years dw guys",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Mr Earthworm | CsxlkBMj5PVqP9sAsl0o | public | contract | 1,719,639,516,618 | will-there-be-a-nuclear-war-in-the | MrEarthworm | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK9D81r2oTsUEffMNt4FLaAu1ggQkD4sUcLnOsdQS8puA=s96-c | Will there be a nuclear war in the next 50 years? | null | null | null | null | null |
sib6qqiholl | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I wasn't aware of that. When did that start?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,639,538,542 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 8552n4hwh84 | null | 1,663.614791 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 |
9djmpz38j4v | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As a Trump YES-holder, I hope you're right",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
... | jim | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,639,563,795 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | jim | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 5vf0xh10mnu | 0.771507 | 119,356.065314 | NO | null | |
8c4e3uym9gb | false | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "However comical it is, they won’t find losing the election funny.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Craig Talbert | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,639,666,557 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 5vf0xh10mnu | 0.771507 | 175.57437 | NO | null |
9s0kju1wigm | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'd say it probably started with their endorsements and interview in the 2020 primary, but has escalated during his Presidency.",
"type": "te... | Semiotic Rivalry | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,639,879,254 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | SemioticRivalry | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 8552n4hwh84 | null | 74,319.04279 | NO | 51e4cacd136a | |
s5gpote06cb | false | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Traveel | 3kgdxh6dhz | public | contract | 1,719,639,924,452 | daily-coinflip-9boyi0ocvy | Traveel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | Daily coinflip | null | 0.5 | 5,129.428081 | YES | null |
hq9hg5sccoc | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | 3kgdxh6dhz | public | contract | 1,719,639,934,079 | daily-coinflip-9boyi0ocvy | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
meqewdnomep | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | 3kgdxh6dhz | public | contract | 1,719,639,995,248 | daily-coinflip-9boyi0ocvy | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
elk50sa48vu | false | UApY3JY4UNPKE2rlXRM6EZJD8eF3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Erik | 8dsLbui5Z7DmrRcpiflP | public | contract | 1,719,640,226,040 | jemma-decristo-loses-her-position-a-83911c7eca37 | Kire_ | Jemma Decristo loses her position at UC Davis by mid 2024 | null | 0.25 | 375.218801 | NO | null | |
tzzd603go8g | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There’s no gotchas here. In the unlikely event of ties, I’ll let you know. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | 0xSMW | hHxLuRZUwD1UaXPpX0Ka | public | contract | 1,719,640,261,664 | on-june-30-2024-who-will-have-the-t | 0xSMW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebzQADjl9sxVe3FwAwXHh0rvywWS3WBEkCu89gmBWd7hs=s96-c | On June 30 2024, who will have the top ranking model on the LMSYS ELO board? | lwjpo758o9 | null | 349.993647 | YES | 7ff527e3314 |
hkfkqi9101e | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For everyone else reading this, there’s currently a 16 point spread between the top two models. This spread is 2x larger than the error confidence inte... | 0xSMW | hHxLuRZUwD1UaXPpX0Ka | public | contract | 1,719,640,367,462 | on-june-30-2024-who-will-have-the-t | 0xSMW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebzQADjl9sxVe3FwAwXHh0rvywWS3WBEkCu89gmBWd7hs=s96-c | On June 30 2024, who will have the top ranking model on the LMSYS ELO board? | lwjpo758o9 | null | 349.993647 | YES | 7ff527e3314 |
9vz6803qv2 | false | KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I thought I might lose this weekend. I’m at a trailhead and will be climbing Mt. Adams over the next couple days, and GaiaGPS’s mapping layer for my ce... | snazzlePop | CZyfJkv4csxPFN3K0Z5q | public | contract | 1,719,640,937,533 | which-candidate-would-last-the-long | snazzlePop | [Daily Streak Ironman] Which candidate would last the longest? [40000 Mana prize] | null | null | 2,135.826478 | YES | 3756930e94d1 | |
hde8a46k9e | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3",
"label": "Tripping",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | KqdLyWAOwtC13OtrRRep | public | contract | 1,719,641,014,907 | will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-at-lea | nikki | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win at least one state in the Democratic primaries? | null | 0.028699 | 311.433634 | NO | null | |
p0u3cp037s | false | ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As bad as Biden did in the debate, the one worse option for Democrats than him continuing is for him to drop out now. If he was going to do it, 2023 wo... | Stark | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,642,389,156 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | StarkLN | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.771622 | 85.510809 | YES | null | |
nyy0sxfzhpp | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is a cool market, however it’s confounded by the fact that for someone to become the Dem nominee, they would have to gain a lot of popularity. So ... | Ansel | rEjvq11HwIopdqvN8ufV | public | contract | 1,719,643,248,714 | who-would-win-the-presidential-elec | Ansel | Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? | null | null | 109.990176 | NO | bd827a2cf974 | |
irueypiy8qe | false | qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@mods ",
"type": "text"
},
{
... | Elspeth | e0na2p6y9w | public | contract | 1,719,643,660,239 | will-i-still-think-that-linoleic-ac | Elspeth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YW8OqjQHKeOg__RKSHtatt46deQK-sc3X4I5x=s96-c | Will I still think that linoleic acid is the main cause of obesity by 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
bn3ynty8hqd | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I made a variant:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
... | Ansel | rEjvq11HwIopdqvN8ufV | public | contract | 1,719,644,399,257 | who-would-win-the-presidential-elec | Ansel | Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? | nyy0sxfzhpp | null | 109.990176 | NO | bd827a2cf974 | |
4hyzudxlpgf | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1",
"label": "Bruce54df",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"... | nikki | TEZ7Q90bErotAwjZQYSS | public | contract | 1,719,645,334,496 | will-any-member-of-the-harvard-corp | nikki | Will any member of the Harvard Corporation (other than President Gay) resign in the next 6 months? | null | 0.069768 | 268.504294 | NO | null | |
iml6mv1iaqk | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1",
"label": "Mich",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | nikki | 38hg5PWZr0mL503Zf7nd | public | contract | 1,719,645,459,057 | will-i-be-accepted-to-the-invisible | nikki | Will I be accepted to the Invisible College (August 2024) ? | q8yducccmvt | 0.03 | 546.904335 | NO | null | |
hypfyz13lx | false | bGzeFSQonHViiUGlIQKSQCoSMuj1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How come? They’ve been procrastinating on this one for so long, it wouldn’t surprise me if they never plan to release a decision. Though I could be mis... | not telling | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,719,645,513,127 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | nottelling2ccc | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0KZO9Ji8D2vJ2u2RLHgTvQg2mIqcQcJzV9rf51=s96-c | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | jjpi4fzu84f | null | 107.172409 | NO | d4d88be4159a |
j74xon9n9on | false | qwRnXjl01lZpyN1pJcEr2yPsPdV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "IATSE Reaches Tentative Agreement on Basic Agreement With Studios and Streamers",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"... | Alan Grow | JobVMBmwuIpwVDayiIpg | public | contract | 1,719,646,492,587 | will-iatse-go-on-strike-in-2024 | alangrow | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3xGLWyG-xsRAolav4YQniMhzXpjwDgI774wCorGA=s96-c | Will IATSE go on strike in 2024? | null | 0.21 | 128.557458 | NO | null |
lvkpdk20pja | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's bfloat16, so it will not fit into RTX 4090 memory and after my experiments with an M1 Mac, I'm skeptical about running big models on Mac Studio.",... | Oleg Eterevsky | bPLtYlnjzRvQNdcbE6T8 | public | contract | 1,719,646,539,282 | when-will-a-gpt4-class-model-run-on | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | When will a GPT-4 class model run on a single consumer PC? | 28ed19vetx3 | null | null | null | null |
i43ni1k5zte | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "nope",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | 6VwJ6xRRYSfenLQyFTzf | public | contract | 1,719,647,698,910 | what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-0a7be0e1f6ef | shankypanky | What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? | null | null | 1,663.517177 | YES | dfe86c906f7a | |
r9g7knaby6m | false | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Thank you for subscribing!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
... | James | 1ab825kfr4 | public | contract | 1,719,647,835,920 | how-many-people-will-subscribe-to-m | JamesGrugett | How many people will subscribe to my Substack in the next week? | null | null | 19,321.495307 | YES | cyl7npflao | |
swlgnq9d9ip | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Ansel | 5zi9a5ak1s | public | contract | 1,719,647,859,790 | who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-j8gx5ptrlf | Ansel | Who would win the US Presidential Election, if Biden is unable to stand as the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
n8steekno4 | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Related:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type":... | Ansel | I2CpFJU3bOJaSmh1my5v | public | contract | 1,719,647,884,537 | if-biden-is-not-the-2024-nominee-wi | Ansel | If Biden is not the 2024 nominee, will it be by choice? | null | null | null | null | null | |
o4squkk1h6j | false | FwUZ6ImOMmY5Tc5RlxL6dammsuU2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Louis | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,719,647,907,362 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | Thunderstar | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5i5tRwQycrz57qr_9mtg-51AflSWl8S2-Y_93f6Q=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | 174.708904 | YES | 51e4cacd136a |
dpesh2t0uij | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "99%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Semiotic Rivalry | I2CpFJU3bOJaSmh1my5v | public | contract | 1,719,647,931,661 | if-biden-is-not-the-2024-nominee-wi | SemioticRivalry | If Biden is not the 2024 nominee, will it be by choice? | null | 0.9 | 1,309.247027 | YES | null | |
krilyhb834c | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Correction: I retried Llama-3-8b-Instruct on M1 Pro and it spends ~0.5 seconds per token. So it is possible that a Mac Studio could run Gemma 2-27B at ... | Oleg Eterevsky | bPLtYlnjzRvQNdcbE6T8 | public | contract | 1,719,648,084,078 | when-will-a-gpt4-class-model-run-on | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | When will a GPT-4 class model run on a single consumer PC? | 28ed19vetx3 | null | null | null | null |
3olgvssia1t | false | gvXolnv2zaMtNfYQcXyxWkY3Y1X2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How much did ya lose?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Niklas Bergström | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,719,649,336,651 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | NiklasBergstrom | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJhYWr-8aA8c2mVdvPhsSoOARgSEMg9dkh3nET7C2x9N_8=s96-c | Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June? | aolpj7h4p3 | 0 | 140.55984 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.