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} | nikki | jMGwIJtaiPcjtG9W688Q | public | contract | 1,719,721,299,955 | who-will-make-at-least-one-bet-on-m | nikki | Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024? | null | null | 460.601584 | YES | 329b5e60413c | |
3ljf0uuiqt8 | false | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | {
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} | Magnus | PA2JSxSHbdQDD7fBtY4I | public | contract | 1,719,721,391,060 | who-will-be-elected-vicepresident-i | thepurplebull | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | Who will be elected vice-president in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | null | null | null | null | null |
g0tybgiwdgj | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
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cmgz7tgkcpd | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
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} | SG | bJmIqCmJCFnVsDFR5Pk8 | public | contract | 1,719,721,454,836 | will-interactive-brokers-announce-a-6b9086a22c55 | SG | Will Interactive Brokers get CFTC approval for the ForecastEx prediction market platform in 2024? | null | 0.985904 | 587.909688 | YES | null | |
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} | stefanie | jMGwIJtaiPcjtG9W688Q | public | contract | 1,719,721,481,632 | who-will-make-at-least-one-bet-on-m | shankypanky | Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024? | o83wacijacs | null | 623.576082 | YES | 178ecf931c3d | |
z8swwlvnil | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
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} | nikki | 3zGTOte61ULeQOlyA3VY | public | contract | 1,719,721,790,778 | will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2024 | nikki | Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | kNL9Gt4ZKxrQzXJNqTAD | 0.053033 | 296.760158 | NO | null | |
yv3cygmtcy | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "March 2024: 157 total MANA_PURCHASE transactions from 86 unique users",
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}
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} | Eliza | seauXVlAKaX6ZxeuL8o5 | public | contract | 1,719,721,799,616 | will-more-user-accounts-purchase-ma | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will more user accounts purchase mana at least one time in June 2024 than March 2024? | null | 0.989616 | 1,857.948326 | YES | null |
cu0uynudjd | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
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} | The Official | iXpyvZAwWZAw8FToJIwi | public | contract | 1,719,721,837,347 | will-england-win-the-uefa-euro-2024-b0144e0496d6 | 10thOfficial | Will Italy win the UEFA Euro 2024? | null | 0.01 | 2,740.684752 | NO | null | |
uz9z929pnh | false | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | {
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} | Conflux | 6gygkz9jnc | public | contract | 1,719,722,281,465 | how-many-democratic-members-of-cong | Conflux | How many Democratic members of Congress will call on Biden to step aside by 7/7? | null | null | null | null | null | |
7k0h48twa9p | false | jAY6viyswAc4uYYXaBKKSmqjBzs1 | {
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x0ok8t7f0g | false | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | {
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} | Adrian | bJmIqCmJCFnVsDFR5Pk8 | public | contract | 1,719,723,080,843 | will-interactive-brokers-announce-a-6b9086a22c55 | ahalekelly | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | Will Interactive Brokers get CFTC approval for the ForecastEx prediction market platform in 2024? | 6d1b9eezeyi | null | null | null | null |
7dnkto0d2xg | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
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} | The Official | iXpyvZAwWZAw8FToJIwi | public | contract | 1,719,723,134,024 | will-england-win-the-uefa-euro-2024-b0144e0496d6 | 10thOfficial | Will Italy win the UEFA Euro 2024? | cu0uynudjd | 0.01 | 2,740.684752 | NO | null | |
uvvnbxeygq | false | Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2 | {
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} | Lambda Fairy | QNH4iBrVw4mRoymoUzXX | public | contract | 1,719,723,844,617 | will-wonderful-precure-introduce-a | tfae | Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure? | null | 0.534962 | 92.434547 | YES | null | |
0z6lszy3eref | false | oNShNEPoPcYuHlt1qLDI4h0aanq2 | {
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g1xm0n56dui | false | oNShNEPoPcYuHlt1qLDI4h0aanq2 | {
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oggy9c6l29 | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
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lcvoiv2yh19 | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
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k9pf95hk1g | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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} | chris (strutheo) | 0fd0npx6lm | public | contract | 1,719,725,604,995 | will-the-supreme-court-decide-75-or | strutheo | Will the Supreme Court decide 75 or more cases in 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
6k55apq6dw4 | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
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"text": "My interpretation of that 50% means it's tricky using their prediction for this market though, since their calibration is good (we can't just simply bet up June 30 to 50%). By my calculations they make the correct genesis predictions > ~90% of the time in such non-trivial cases 48 hours out (non trivial, as in other likelihoods forecast other than 0% or 100%):",
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} | JRP | tw8ydrjwnd | public | contract | 1,719,726,790,966 | when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-sf0ekb2un4 | parhizj | When will a tropical storm be named Chris in 2024? | scl6pnnh4og | null | 99.908736 | YES | uni83lgtke | |
tk10o5knn4l | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
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