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r3itdfzqcao
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "label": "egroj", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " pls resolve 🥳 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
aI3kW4K4xx5wsPrqBp7c
public
contract
1,719,686,054,726
will-primoz-roglic-start-the-2024-t
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Will Primoz Roglic start the 2024 Tour de France?
null
0.966066
173.237978
YES
null
79irfe6hrne
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "label": "Eliza", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " pls resolve 🥳 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
YIoY6WcPYMDWAK2vk1XF
public
contract
1,719,686,064,110
will-remco-evenepoel-start-the-2024
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Will Remco Evenepoel start the 2024 Tour de France?
null
0.96966
123.367788
YES
null
25896ydcmy4
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "label": "egroj", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " pls resolve 🥳 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
HV1KpsSUTXYZ7mPPZS9I
public
contract
1,719,686,079,358
which-main-sprinter-will-team-jayco
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Which main sprinter will Team Jayco–AlUla take to the 2024 Tour de France?
null
null
59.731089
NO
27980bde00ae
kcmpfm3yz7s
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "label": "Mich", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Obviously left wing. The make a wish foundation is right wing? Charity is left wing in general. Effective charities are still left wing but less left wing than ineffective ones.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Wei
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,686,274,206
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
133.213663
NO
zatyt0qu1i
kmotmudg3j
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "label": "JemimaBowman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thabk you for your feedback?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3J-0d7gRDk.png?alt=media&token=c78b1047-eb14-4c05-8021-225b416f3116", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
j85p3jl2wp
public
contract
1,719,686,280,908
will-switzerland-beat-italy-euro-20
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Will Switzerland beat Italy? | Euro 2024
null
1
3,992.182245
YES
null
v82o15hj4ci
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "sorry I missed it this week 😭", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
u2w4ypgp4c
public
contract
1,719,686,681,097
who-will-earn-the-most-mana-at-poke
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Who will earn the most mana at poker night?
null
null
null
null
null
jy03xfl7g1b
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Fix from TAFB 18Z puts it at Cat 1 strength:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "AL, 02, 202406291800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1000N, 4850W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, AL, VI, 5, 4040 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T, ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "codeBlock" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqrjN2T1pzO.png?alt=media&token=851bb059-25a2-4ab4-b5f1-3eab731b6ba6", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's notably higher than the objective dvorak and SATCON. I've only seen OSPO's (MTCSWA) from 15Z with similar max wind speeds:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsPAggwJvaT.png?alt=media&token=561cdda6-fb3c-4281-bdf1-da9aa9f587c7", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
vhcygq75yf
public
contract
1,719,686,809,292
what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-93r7unfai1
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Beryl?
null
null
667.805565
YES
mpmiihrscm
3b9qk00fak4
false
nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "IMO if the creator does not edit the description to comport with any new criteria they come up with after starting the market, they are behaving badly. Bettors shouldn't have to scroll through every single comment to see how a market is going to resolve. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Moreover though, I wasn't able to find any actual clear alternate criteria given for resolving the market in the comments. Just a bunch of talk this way and that. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt P
uYZ3EsJMnnGOQSAN0RCq
public
contract
1,719,687,445,075
will-the-supreme-court-affirm-that
MattP
https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f
Will the Supreme Court affirm that Trump participated in an insurrection?
k81sqctb3h
0.023547
398.395189
NO
null
w9ifeix1mdc
false
5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related market I made for Week 1:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w1ssli39ws", "label": "/jks/-2024-ncaaf-will-texas-defeat-michi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JKS
9rBnFj2pWENwXbSp4S7m
public
contract
1,719,688,143,333
will-the-michigan-football-team-win
jks
https://firebasestorage.…638-cbc4a0a8faa6
Will the Michigan football team win 10 or more games in the 2024-2025 season?
null
null
null
null
null
0x11gq626ufi
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe even San Francisco…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/yayareanews/status/1806801063410077947?s=46&t=KLdh_NjKu_D5KdnD3UmDRQ", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/yayareanews/status/1806801063410077947?s=46&t=KLdh_NjKu_D5KdnD3UmDRQ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3esplDUW7F.png?alt=media&token=38a2aaf5-f7d1-47ab-ab74-69e9bc9a25ab", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niko
fpamun56jh
public
contract
1,719,688,218,044
after-grants-pass-scotus-decision-w
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
After Grants Pass SCOTUS decision, will top-25 California city pass or enact rules to clear homeless encampments? (2024)
null
0.74052
367.740151
YES
null
00og4ii4z7ns
false
5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can I get Utah as an answer?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JKS
RqOHvEQjmXM4iGJNqhv1
public
contract
1,719,688,270,898
what-teams-will-make-the-quarterfin
jks
https://firebasestorage.…638-cbc4a0a8faa6
What teams will make the quarterfinals of the 2025 College Football Playoff?
null
null
null
null
null
24g2prd08dh
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/south-carolina/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/south-carolina/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOXSfE5uQuf.png?alt=media&token=7a89a2b0-c6d8-4e92-8dc3-a50261f15a59", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "zogby showing RFK getting higher than Biden in south carolina, gonna bump it up from 6%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
V7QKQulKufdPZB4qOvRE
public
contract
1,719,688,870,140
where-will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-c0cd84ff9ac7
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Where will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win at least 10% of the vote in the 2024 Presidential election?
null
null
84.037828
YES
e23014efa989
nk8ky808a5b
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Utah NO Bettors, tasty mana at 50+, and limit order set at 20%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
pf6yycx4mp
public
contract
1,719,689,118,981
will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-get-a-high
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Robert F Kennedy Jr. Get a Higher % of Votes in Utah than Biden?
null
0.57
356.907938
YES
null
web0g75n3zf
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/did-donald-trump-spank-joe-biden-in", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Keenen W
hlXXijoNf6MVc94NkgnE
public
contract
1,719,689,251,747
will-donald-trump-spank-joe-biden-i
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
Will Donald Trump spank Joe Biden in the first debate on June 27?
null
null
null
null
null
xzh2zgxchvq
false
9mJKCO8c7AUyngjevC2vh3eXsCk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Heyz that's a tie , we should get our mana back", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
KIM Jin- hyub
U6MGN7SfUnNHdzfBNzOb
public
contract
1,719,689,664,699
who-will-be-the-leading-wickettaker
KIMJinhyub
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKVD_BvO6ujaiSjyj5fdJQzdVW0d0iSdyiZAeG8boU4=s96-c
Who will be the leading wicket-taker? 🏏 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup
null
null
407.707245
YES
lr8hvj1mq2
9kw7r21pg5u
false
lAk7exfrM7bRzoR3KMQ436OB71m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For the narrow purpose of this market, no. If you think the probability is significantly different if non-citizen victims are included, that's a great reason to start another market, no?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nicholas Weininger
Cn6253EQOXvKtWPU8zb9
public
contract
1,719,689,708,036
between-oct-1-2024-and-apr-1-2025-w
NicholasWeininger
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbVW6ROVYa2I2Vjaos2Yc9Fd0tYIEcRx0w0l-y1yQ=s96-c
Between Oct 1 2024 and Apr 1 2025, will US-election-related violence kill at least 100 Americans?
zz9f8pvxrld
null
null
null
null
n9da6u04k6j
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Forgot what was that.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
BL47FDmlSvwljFpq7SO9
public
contract
1,719,689,919,941
is-the-orthogonality-thesis-correct
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
Is the orthogonality thesis correct?
null
null
null
null
null
i3880764gle
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Covering the north, south, east, and west of the continental USA:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iIKRLHfXEUmojrlcSAAJ", "label": "/ovals/in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o9dvwuecxt", "label": "/ovals/in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KQwIvjHWjK8ATcuqjE0y", "label": "/ovals/in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vtbkkmhahd", "label": "/ovals/in-san-francisco-on-what-day-will-t-kjr9fkpkir", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
o9dvwuecxt
public
contract
1,719,690,022,882
in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
In Austin, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?
null
null
null
null
null
z0xaq0542rq
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Covering the north, south, east, and west of the continental USA:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In Chicago, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In Austin, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-san-francisco-on-what-day-will-t-kjr9fkpkir", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In San Francisco, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
iIKRLHfXEUmojrlcSAAJ
public
contract
1,719,690,060,473
in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
In Chicago, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?
null
null
9.446583
NO
fup8nu7g27
3n5g2b3wkc9
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Covering the north, south, east, and west of the continental USA:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In Chicago, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In Austin, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-san-francisco-on-what-day-will-t-kjr9fkpkir", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In San Francisco, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-san-francisco-on-what-day-will-t-kjr9fkpkir", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
KQwIvjHWjK8ATcuqjE0y
public
contract
1,719,690,091,303
in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?
null
null
40.466125
YES
5rtt55sy3y
a5y32pl6v8
false
e4uEmboKKXedpcoMa6ew4f1adTn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
gigab0nus
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,690,121,059
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
gigab0nus
https://firebasestorage.…bb4-402507eb7110
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
ohw654sazfc
null
8,045.132008
NO
4200a35f2afc
blh3bvea347
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Covering the north, south, east, and west of the continental USA:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In Chicago, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-chicago-on-what-day-will-the-hig", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-austin-on-what-day-will-the-high", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In Austin, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In New York City, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-new-york-city-on-what-day-will-t-l9h28imppn", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/in-san-francisco-on-what-day-will-t-kjr9fkpkir", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "In San Francisco, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
vtbkkmhahd
public
contract
1,719,690,121,414
in-san-francisco-on-what-day-will-t-kjr9fkpkir
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
In San Francisco, on what day will the highest temperature of July 2024 be recorded?
null
null
null
null
null
gku4yfg81pm
false
3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It almost works and has a forgivable caveat. I think I'll finish it tomorrow", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SlipperySloe
t4h3ueakpa
public
contract
1,719,690,143,360
will-i-manage-to-write-my-first-obs
SlipperySloe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9TEW3ZhkaigGGIIbqjV1SPUlLoxYjFsM2bWTYBMfZNUI=s96-c
Will I manage to write my first obsidian plugin in a week?
null
0.448992
94.623286
YES
null
ma27wuwxtv
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Red/yellow/green:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "udpvaq1muc", "label": "/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-rqd3agr3oc", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "waAxJhItocZBj4Ei6NnC", "label": "/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d0zp3sntf7", "label": "/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-n4a07q82lo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
d0zp3sntf7
public
contract
1,719,690,379,575
after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-n4a07q82lo
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Vert?
null
null
null
null
null
7wog0wqia9i
false
LcDZdOmQdJSKB2mwuFImstJyeMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should Germany Denmark be resolved N/A?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Julia
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,690,395,920
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Juliafe02
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKN7DH35BsTDdg70SRBD644lLdIrDbiwh5qoUqcGb7kFRU=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
null
null
2,081.401027
YES
ed8709c46cf6
6aeutymtyqm
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Red/yellow/green:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-rqd3agr3oc", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot a Pois Rouge?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-rqd3agr3oc", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Jaune?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-n4a07q82lo", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Vert?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-n4a07q82lo", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
udpvaq1muc
public
contract
1,719,690,400,286
after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-rqd3agr3oc
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot a Pois Rouge?
null
null
null
null
null
xfbp3x674r
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Red/yellow/green:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-rqd3agr3oc", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot a Pois Rouge?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-rqd3agr3oc", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Jaune?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-n4a07q82lo", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Vert?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f-n4a07q82lo", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "‌", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
waAxJhItocZBj4Ei6NnC
public
contract
1,719,690,457,087
after-stage-2-of-the-2024-tour-de-f
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
After Stage 2 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Jaune?
null
null
380.307075
YES
bhzyiksjyj
yj5wy79jbrj
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why it is suspended not abandoned at least not yet", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,690,462,483
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
7wog0wqia9i
null
10,515.394327
YES
b93a7410ec16
n0f1xq8g15l
false
LcDZdOmQdJSKB2mwuFImstJyeMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Fair enough.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Julia
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,690,535,296
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
Juliafe02
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKN7DH35BsTDdg70SRBD644lLdIrDbiwh5qoUqcGb7kFRU=s96-c
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
7wog0wqia9i
null
2,081.401027
YES
ed8709c46cf6
qwj92d9e8e
false
wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Last comment - 10 reasons why it will be Rubio. First bet I started putting real money on. Reasons not in order.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0) The final 3 candidates are Burgum, Vance, and Rubio according to every news source. That’s just to establish the race here.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1) Balances the ticket with a young, but not too young person. Vance is 39, Burgum is 67. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2) Hispanic. Black people are only 13% of the population and have historically very low turnout. Scott or Carson wouldn’t move the needle. Hispanics are 20% of the population and a key demo in AZ (33%) and NV (31%). Rubio can best argue Trump’s hardline immigration positions to Hispanics.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3) Rubio has extremely high cred with Nikki Haley/establishment circles. He’s a top leader of the Senate. He’s a huge prize, not a lackey. Getting Rubio proves that Trump is finally electorally attractive. He could always have gotten Vance/Burgum no matter how poor his polling was.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4) Rubio is the most thoroughly vetted candidate, since he ran for president in 2016 and has been in the national spotlight for 12 years. Trump can be 100% confident that there will be no surprises. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "5) Rubio is an effective Senate leader. Trump will need someone to whip Senate votes when in office. Burgum is a rural governor and Vance only just became a senator and has little cred/sway in the Senate.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "6) Rubio is the most experienced candidate in front of cameras. Plus, it plays better to have a good looking, clean cut guy doing the abortion arguments than a bearded hillbilly or an old guy.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "7) Rubio has pledged to resign his Senate seat and move to Maryland to clear constitutional hurdles and become Trump’s VP. That’s the ultimate loyalty test.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "8) Rubio and Trump have had a close working relationship since 2017. Other candidates only recently endeared themselves to Trump. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "9) Rubio has enormous sway over Florida politics. Trump needs Florida 100% in his corner not just for the election, but for his court battles. Trump’s relationship with DeSantis is fractured. Rubio will be his Florida advocate and fight DeSantis when necessary.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "10) Trump can easily downplay all of Rubio’s past criticism as “we were in a primary fight”. It’s harder to explain Vance or Burgum’s criticism.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FoxKHTML
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,690,667,030
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
FoxKHTML
https://firebasestorage.…e38-64ea064304ad
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
null
null
140,772.620453
YES
086ed0cbbf50
q6v842ueco
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " In the chance this match is postponed, this market will still remain open.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
91jn0f6h9c
public
contract
1,719,690,676,333
will-germany-beat-denmark-euro-2024
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Will Germany beat Denmark? | Euro 2024
null
null
null
null
null
dq4j580o31r
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "based", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,690,797,677
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
qwj92d9e8e
null
180,183.245518
YES
1956526b7eb9
5kqw18vq1q
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " As of now the match is \"suspended\" but not yet postponed.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,719,690,936,737
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
1,799.497005
NO
94dbi9xjvs
0iav451brytv
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please read the market description, this scenario was accounted for and therefore resolved correctly.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
U6MGN7SfUnNHdzfBNzOb
public
contract
1,719,691,040,061
who-will-be-the-leading-wickettaker
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Who will be the leading wicket-taker? 🏏 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup
xzh2zgxchvq
null
805.026289
NO
7da96f0d0229
y76z79xdtvm
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "r u a storm expert :0", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ismellpillows
vhcygq75yf
public
contract
1,719,691,103,033
what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-93r7unfai1
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Beryl?
jy03xfl7g1b
null
118.784268
NO
rgspwq9umw
v9n00kxs72i
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Be sure to catch the Copa America action! Not as much liquidity as this market but still plenty of opportunity!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/10thOfficial/2024-copa-america-all-matches", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,691,125,276
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
null
null
9,313.24283
NO
a002bae98d9f
z43ssymmjzl
false
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1.2 trillion liters of water can supply approximately 2,896,627 households for one year.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Franklin Baldo
fZImymbFacC1SOHtshtn
public
contract
1,719,691,557,708
by-2050-will-humans-pump-significan
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?
yo4zxusdh9p
0.160265
11.715979
NO
null
77bpc99atmc
false
v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe. Whoever is president in 2025 inherits a situation where Russia is permanently weakened. On the battlefield, 2025 is the year where much of the remaining soviet stock (tanks, artillery) runs out for good. Ukraine is steadily climbing the ladder of capabilities with much better weapons. It will likely achieve both air superiority over the battlefield and superiority in artillery fires some time in 2025. It matters if the US completely cuts funding after the inauguration, but it doesn't matter nearly as much as if this had occurred in 2023-2024", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MalachiteEagle
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7
public
contract
1,719,691,819,644
will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
MalachiteEagle
https://firebasestorage.…83c-d8d52263dde6
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
zei6smc7lh
null
null
null
null
m3dfxv7icrp
false
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1.2 trillion liters of water is equivalent to nearly 8 years of Coca-Cola production. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Franklin Baldo
fZImymbFacC1SOHtshtn
public
contract
1,719,691,927,366
by-2050-will-humans-pump-significan
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?
yo4zxusdh9p
0.160265
11.715979
NO
null
2uucf4ny16o
false
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just put down 10k in limit orders on this really crucial market!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gabrielle
88ykSdduJBm1fOE5UBin
public
contract
1,719,691,958,760
who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-e43c62c31980
Gabrielle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers]
null
null
432.134071
NO
1b9e67dfc711
58grviz519c
false
v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Of course if the US chooses to continue supporting Ukraine from 2025 onwards, then it's a complete knockout for Russia. To a great extent this is the equilibrium that's already priced in. It's more likely that this market will respond to domestic realities on the battlefield as opposed to foreign political theater.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MalachiteEagle
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7
public
contract
1,719,692,086,422
will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
MalachiteEagle
https://firebasestorage.…83c-d8d52263dde6
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
zei6smc7lh
null
null
null
null
9c93c6xw9l
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "On a forthcoming catch attempt: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The whole team is feeling pretty good about it. The water landing for b11 was very accurate.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/_DylanSmall_/status/1807076803753955341", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/_DylanSmall_/status/1807076803753955341", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
rjy1qNUEsSiphHi3PCAN
public
contract
1,719,692,373,068
will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?
null
0.595092
13,059.584406
YES
null
mcgtg0at44k
false
KukaIffKZlc5LPbgOkXqORgapLe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "DNC CHAIR BACKS BIDEN: WE HAVE TO HAVE HIS BACK - WAPO REPORTER", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
gmbleawy
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,692,440,245
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
gmbleawy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdOPub8HgywYNaNmomTkUEqKE8rUJG2F62FWRe0izck6ts=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.799696
4,703.432041
YES
null
ogto1e1uxg
false
vqOl1dlQVOSB2G1M7JIHzLcrooa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "These people are insane ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kwame Osei
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,692,553,869
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
KwameOsei
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4qRkce5XFoxssZ_Z0BMJ4Aw1YVRC8EdMiNS4wz=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ek6k9g0i67
0.799913
551.149216
NO
null
ujlm4sny93l
false
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "label": "JamesF", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " please resolve to yes. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Franklin Baldo
pzsPJ92AOfJLTXV8oxus
public
contract
1,719,692,977,631
what-countries-will-decriminalize-o
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
What countries will decriminalize or legalize weed by 2030
null
null
155.512314
YES
11debda688b6
ryae8ttcna
false
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Congrats to ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "label": "Sinclair", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " for powering through the migration to completion this month!", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We even had a stress test of our infra with the surge of trades from the debate, and it's held up pretty well! Still a few more bugs for us to fix of course. I think we can have a rock-solid backend by November.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James
6EEv2ncKz6f6gIbjxxrk
public
contract
1,719,693,272,144
when-will-the-migration-from-fireba
JamesGrugett
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
When will "The Migration" (from Firebase to Supabase) be complete?
null
null
6,237.55479
YES
25a77e713a51
n009kk64bc
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wonder if there is any other market class (in terms of predictive questions) outside of Weather forecasting that has such an immense glut of publicly available, real time and historical data for which to practice making predictions while also having a 'good' amount of chances to make regular predictions. In short, it's good practice.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
vhcygq75yf
public
contract
1,719,693,716,721
what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-93r7unfai1
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Beryl?
jy03xfl7g1b
null
667.805565
YES
mpmiihrscm
nmz0255te7f
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mint the coin then offer to give it to Trump if he agrees to concede", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shaked Koplewitz
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,693,740,755
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
153ya8w6wvv
0.799061
1,851.339959
YES
null
80gzqay15e4
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Might legitimately be better to throw this election if you can't win with Biden than to sacrifice long-term party credibility by doing a hail mary candidate switch to someone that's pretty likely to lose anyway.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shaked Koplewitz
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,693,968,518
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ek6k9g0i67
0.799061
1,851.339959
YES
null
ve2mi06fpnk
false
sSmuNjhRzWhUjDudvx0uSMAq1Yg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have a feeling that Jimmy Carter will die between a Tuesday and a Thursday, including Wednesday.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Golden Omega 10
hsGErwq3UPRFgpB6nbs7
public
contract
1,719,694,547,914
will-jimmy-carter-die-on-a-weekend
GoldenOmega10
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKylSleQiNPVkKLBwP-Xo_8NCKg5MkG2ZH34gTNQE7KMHUhKA=s96-c
Will Jimmy Carter Die on a weekend in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3efrlb4mzxj
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I do not know whether he would and why, I think he would not be able to.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why oppose putin? Because putin wants to reestablish ussr, and that includes baltic states. If ukraine gives up, estonia will be one of the next targets, which is a direct conflict with nato. I suppose the whole europe benefits from keeping the war within the the borders of ukraine.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/will-russia-attack-baltic-states-li", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "14% of a rus-nato war is a serious possibility needed to be taken into account.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
kh9blbr6z3
public
contract
1,719,694,578,029
biden-vs-trump-opinion-market
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Biden vs Trump. Opinion market
fu3lbjfx6ro
0.555804
9.446583
YES
null
n6rkq4810r9
false
iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1", "label": "vibhav", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " How does this resolve if he announces tomorrow \"I will retire in 2025\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dominic de Bettencourt
IGINREnkr47HYINurLNZ
public
contract
1,719,694,635,051
lebron-prop-bets
dominic
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c
LeBron Prop Bets
null
null
369.94705
YES
c0d611a59937
an4drx641pj
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Inspired by markets like ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-54n2wof6sg?r=TUwxMmQx", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "and ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Traveel/daily-coinflip-pgyr04q8oc?r=TUwxMmQx", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
smffxeg4r4
public
contract
1,719,694,650,783
-polya-urn-game-will-a-green-ball-b
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
🟢🔴 Polya urn game: Will a green ball be drawn on ... ?
null
null
1.0002
YES
w88qrxnnip
l643azslyl
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What do u think abt sports?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ismellpillows
vhcygq75yf
public
contract
1,719,694,784,286
what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-93r7unfai1
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Beryl?
jy03xfl7g1b
null
118.784268
NO
rgspwq9umw
9kzbpzh53nc
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Markets like yours have inspired me to create this one: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ML12d1/-polya-urn-game-will-a-green-ball-b?r=TUwxMmQx ", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
qe97inxecz
public
contract
1,719,694,914,489
daily-coinflip-pgyr04q8oc
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Daily coinflip
null
0.52
296.185868
NO
null
z43gt0ojgzg
false
seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "label": "10thOfficial", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " This should resolve as yes, as Musiala just scored in the Denmark match", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
celery
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,719,694,989,979
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
WhoamI748e
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
681.34804
YES
6jrgv5186k
o0tvlzedjm
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Markets like yours have inspired me to create this one: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ML12d1/-polya-urn-game-will-a-green-ball-b?r=TUwxMmQx ", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
uh7b00upuf
public
contract
1,719,694,992,044
friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-54n2wof6sg
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
805.262933
YES
sxwg2edkn1
p7ipb7zzxk
false
F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Like RFK JR.'s pick, VPs are just people with lots of money who can fund your campaign. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I feel like this trend with continue with rising inequality. I'd be amazed if Trump picks someone without as much money. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,695,294,370
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
Paulith
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
vp2j270pgjs
null
8,418.832931
YES
93a1f2f817df
txrrcz3fx5h
false
eRvSRM9NHDdbqdP2O2vsNXRzvko2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this resolve NO if, by 2034, no such mission has occurred?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
blume
p5k9vaxh3h
public
contract
1,719,695,462,973
nvidia-to-the-moon
blume
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKyeEyGBh17tK4ixCIsIpTxNe_MuXy0fkefDL3n76Jd102d=s96-c
NVIDIA to the moon?
null
null
null
null
null
e0mf8qv7bwb
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "glenn youngkin has networth of 440 million", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,695,731,686
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
vp2j270pgjs
null
1,584.888686
YES
68097f122634
0hnxwjt0oi8k
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Did you ask her? (also incredible disconnect here vs Polymarket)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,719,695,781,607
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
731su14xmjw
null
9,319.986048
YES
22ea2b6806c8
f2ysg218p86
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ok i'm fine n/aing it, you still want that?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
H2C0pUFoXUunAu8b7i2f
public
contract
1,719,695,845,558
coolfold-2024-which-of-these-2024-e
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE)
51jmtruy2ai
null
null
null
null
5he1vtr77m3
false
TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Exactly", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Symmetry
p5k9vaxh3h
public
contract
1,719,695,951,401
nvidia-to-the-moon
Symmetry
https://firebasestorage.…17b-be701d8b2f3a
NVIDIA to the moon?
txrrcz3fx5h
null
null
null
null
2timmlmb13y
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/292036.shtml", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/292036.shtml", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
H2C0pUFoXUunAu8b7i2f
public
contract
1,719,696,119,499
coolfold-2024-which-of-these-2024-e
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE)
null
null
366.044922
NO
b5f7218e483d
ntt1gjrngkh
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/292036.shtml", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/292036.shtml", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,719,696,175,649
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
2,545.173117
YES
5c6653a59f85
ng01pk8lsv
false
MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Two coins, one for the fed, the other for Trump, he can say he's technically the richest, budget issues solved, two birds one stone", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
CodeandSolder
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,696,414,374
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
CodeandSolder
https://firebasestorage.…113-e028e43cc678
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
153ya8w6wvv
0.789765
306.277284
NO
null
fyxrmgk63yf
false
MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That sort of thinking is exactly what led the Democratic party to the present sad predicament", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
CodeandSolder
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,696,497,349
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
CodeandSolder
https://firebasestorage.…113-e028e43cc678
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ek6k9g0i67
0.789765
306.277284
NO
null
o11r3fk9in
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": { "id": "108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3", "label": "MarnixVreugdenhil", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_European_Parliament_election", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_European_Parliament_election", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,719,696,622,485
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
2,545.173117
YES
5c6653a59f85
1hmj6fiht3u
false
F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He isn't on the short list. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,719,696,751,681
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
Paulith
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
vp2j270pgjs
null
9,081.036346
YES
93a1f2f817df
4s51hafwcf
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom min=0 max=420", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,697,121,509
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
0.19
24.191053
YES
null
pm3qk25q15d
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/ML12d1", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@ML12d1", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 0 and 420, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142203", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142203", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142205", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142205", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: 4s51hafwcf.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,697,125,881
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
null
null
null
null
4addbi51el1
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "arb:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/EthanL/which-party-do-you-think-will-win-f", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/EthanL/which-party-do-you-think-will-win-f", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
4xU1VU6wwwhshy6TDRKT
public
contract
1,719,697,154,902
next-canadian-government
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Next Canadian Government
null
null
null
null
null
fe2fkkm7ex
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/ML12d1", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@ML12d1", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 69", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: 4s51hafwcf, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142205", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142205", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 83b1c16c72ad174c6a40a84a76bdb3e2a8cbafd13af56cce956ddb5651dd2ae34560150aa7c831599a82e2bf77662d4d0b84b8bc80823296baa20e27ea7ee3410aed0464b2603425e5c4c0fafcb81adf0074a3b877204b62366f23bde8c33914)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,697,173,142
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
null
null
null
null
iikysf80rze
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Too long and disorganized are my thoughts on this, but anecdotally the perceived benefits I got from sports was more in making fast updates and predictions, where as the weather was more to the slow, reflective updating. I think you do the first (the fast type) more often and the second type more rarely in terms of number of predictions (not effort/time spent). I don't which would be more valuable personally/professionally to people.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
vhcygq75yf
public
contract
1,719,697,178,380
what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-93r7unfai1
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
What will be the maximum strength of Tropical Storm Beryl?
jy03xfl7g1b
null
651.393534
YES
ywyvitw6yl
r55h4hh19cp
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom min=0 max=420", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,697,369,077
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
0.56
1,158.320538
YES
null
8auemyjloib
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/nikki", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@nikki", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 0 and 420, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142211", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142211", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142213", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142213", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: r55h4hh19cp.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,697,371,876
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
null
null
null
null
5eb60rj4xkx
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/nikki", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@nikki", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 34", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: r55h4hh19cp, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142213", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142213", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 8ae1edeb4d288a31219ed3eeea6d27fe719237e9a89fbd3af633d8c6f8d0af24a621659c4e39ae61363954a62a08192d0fef55af09f637d4c44667939c209c649e21db1caab324e73856914dd6b42fcb5ad1664f2ab0b04e36fe99338934efe3)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,697,411,290
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
null
null
null
null
o6y5ixhzpx9
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nice!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,697,470,219
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
fe2fkkm7ex
0.56
24.191053
YES
null
o9i6yj8iz2
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's really interesting. I've heard some takes that Ukraine is also suffering attrition, rather than \"climbing the ladder of capabilities\". But I hope you're right. I have very little knowledge on it myself", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fion
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7
public
contract
1,719,697,474,311
will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
zei6smc7lh
0.272474
6,726.022493
NO
null
t0gqe0bbdg
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Debby market is up: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-5izovkdrho", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-5izovkdrho", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
tw8ydrjwnd
public
contract
1,719,697,556,378
when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-sf0ekb2un4
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
When will a tropical storm be named Chris in 2024?
null
null
611.261364
YES
uni83lgtke
betmy2yaxli
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In other words, the Democratic party in the US might as well be the CCP politburo. A party this cowardly deserves to lose very badly. I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Dems should have listened to Ezra Klein 4 months ago (or to me 14 months ago!).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,697,584,669
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
zohrcrodz18
0.799126
17,706.775136
NO
null
l0ndrclabpr
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fe4h3BIr1wD.png?alt=media&token=f2d6ac44-3821-46b7-8566-986aad15fc38", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
t8Ekqqy3EkvbQ9BBcTZG
public
contract
1,719,697,814,032
will-the-third-season-of-the-bear-h
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the third season of "The Bear" have a Rotten Tomatoes score >97%, two days after release? (S1 = 100%, S2 = 99%)
null
0.734265
582.073456
YES
null
7uolvbxwzac
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
98ujdfuk20
public
contract
1,719,697,838,973
will-trump-mention-hunter-biden-in
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Trump mention Hunter Biden in the first debate?
tx4buctc2ym
0.990361
2,091.766316
YES
null
95yiz4w9yu
false
XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "label": "Ernie", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I don't understand this market. You refer to a \"default\" in the title and an earlier comment, but you refer to \"a way to change it\" and \"as long as it generally works\" in the criteria and \"limit\" in the same comment. I think ChatGPT defaults to one image, but you can easily make it produce two, just by telling it to do so. Since you refer to \"a setting,\" my best guess is that the term \"limit\" is erroneous, and you mean something like a toggle to change the number of images the model produces by default for future prompts.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FoYCZ0K-ZPB.png?alt=media&token=3e64f9a2-2785-46a3-b583-2a15fb25ea8b", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jacy
CXov25YED6gTWFuerkdf
public
contract
1,719,697,871,849
dalle3-via-gpt4-can-make-more-than
Jacy
https://firebasestorage.…73f-503ef6cf6c81
Dalle-3 via GPT-4 defaults to making more than one image at a time, by mid 2024
null
null
null
null
null
oe09skajrr
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@FairlyRandom min=0 max=6969", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
XaPaE9UwEHo4mEx592af
public
contract
1,719,697,923,879
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-967a7b5448c5
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (42069 Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
0.053892
100.313942
NO
null
ztn120tbz5
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/ML12d1", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@ML12d1", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 0 and 6969, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142230", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142230", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142232", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142232", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: oe09skajrr.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
XaPaE9UwEHo4mEx592af
public
contract
1,719,697,927,014
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-967a7b5448c5
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (42069 Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
null
null
null
null
nqi7qmv03xr
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/ML12d1", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@ML12d1", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 2265", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: oe09skajrr, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4142232", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4142232", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature b9ebc379a2eddc0df7e3da4f1350a4bf0508a788899899b2318f4af3ac47eec4566104006c10fc16ce8b384f136fa0830719639ff857f90f25b19cf351f5b4d4919a345e1b268569fcab5ab4d4bb2899fd2697913429dc3adb0c593a303531eb)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
XaPaE9UwEHo4mEx592af
public
contract
1,719,697,982,677
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-967a7b5448c5
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (42069 Mana prize for the lottery winner)
null
null
null
null
null
apdebx7pf2s
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Looking through his tweets for the 24 hours after the debate, I think this resolves YES. It's sorta close, because most tweets don't address Biden at all. but the two that I think would count are ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1806703588699255125", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "this", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " and ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1806703588699255125", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "this", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", where he replies \"lmao\" and \"lol\" to a post praising Biden's cognitive abilities, and saying that Biden won the debate.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Basically anything negatively-coded that's at all specific to Biden would count.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The single word \"lmao\" is pretty open ended, I mean he doesn't actually ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "say", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " anything specific, but in context it's clear that what he's laughing at is quite specific to Biden. (if he had just tweeted \"lmao\" about something about politics or democrats generally, I don't think it would count). So While I hold NO I think those tweets (but probably nothing else) clear the bar to resolve this YES.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
9uu39axlrv
public
contract
1,719,698,153,131
will-elon-musk-criticize-joe-biden
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Elon Musk criticize Joe Biden on Twitter during or within a day after the first debate?
null
0.792219
185.00068
NO
null
rwvimjes0fo
false
F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think it's time for a massage now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
LzcH61daArBbRlxnEI6N
public
contract
1,719,698,260,068
which-10-sub100-purchases-will-most
Paulith
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c
Which 10 sub-$100 purchases will most significantly improve my quality of life in 2024? [Add Suggestions]
s9ofke2nr8o
null
92.233032
YES
787522fa53e0
fbq5kxg1qra
false
F8KcKLPughaLSaqVMgwVcdkHTul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Updates? Where have you applied at recently?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paul
i32ddLzkBWaCpO7Pv4d1
public
contract
1,719,698,313,213
in-what-career-path-will-i-be-in-ju
Paulith
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIHa4Skn6HHsMqDfZwL6acec4VIUrcwGzztbvQ_mhU63A=s96-c
In what career path will @RanaG be in June 2025?
c1m1qla5ewu
null
69.192371
YES
1qel7gonef
lywjai6wrfr
false
v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Both of those statements are true. Ukraine is suffering attrition while acquiring better capabilities.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MalachiteEagle
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7
public
contract
1,719,698,353,275
will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
MalachiteEagle
https://firebasestorage.…83c-d8d52263dde6
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
zei6smc7lh
null
null
null
null
ylclm80juuh
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3", "label": "NielS", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
ES9ZPQVbfoKkFIHGyXT8
public
contract
1,719,698,443,804
biden-takes-drug-test-before-trump
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Biden takes drug test before Trump debate?
null
0.019721
15.635804
NO
null
icbwjrwo61n
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "are you suggesting Polymarket ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "did", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ask her? lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,719,698,484,371
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
731su14xmjw
null
406.033344
NO
74d0a1d62039
qcln6j8k75b
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lot of money riding on him lasting out past 2024", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/McfarlaneGlenda/status/1806724192907223339", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/McfarlaneGlenda/status/1806724192907223339", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
SUohUfKtMxXzrHSd1cgT
public
contract
1,719,698,543,001
canada-politics-will-jagmeet-singh
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Canada Politics: Will Jagmeet Singh remain the leader of the New Democratic Party through 2024?
null
0.698389
647.079663
YES
null
bzwnhsut4kp
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can someone add Jimmy Carter as an option? He only served one term and is eligible. I think people are kind of forgetting he’s the only democratic ex-president who isn’t term limited and could run again apart from Biden. Wouldn’t rule him out.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ben Shindel
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,698,708,661
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
null
7,746.208562
YES
51e4cacd136a
0tghl8gwtlaa
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like t8 is 4 Bant Nadu, 1 4c nadu (I'm grouping those), 2 Mono B Necro, & 1 Jeskai control. so classification is easy", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
ab3pvzwnrq
public
contract
1,719,698,815,877
which-deck-will-win-pro-tour-modern
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which deck will win Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3?
null
null
102.222677
YES
ggo6bk6nzu
8k2tnmuvz7
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Cringe maybe, but very active and easily profitable ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,698,822,415
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
riht5ob3dum
null
147.699591
NO
dcfbedc0e892
wanzp7oji7
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "With or without US \"support\", I'm not optimistic for anything resembling a Ukrainian victory.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1) The type of \"support\" the US is giving is not likely to lead to a decisive victory. It has, from the start, been provided grudgingly wrt any advanced weapons systems, and the lower-tech arms -- basically a DoD yard sale of old toys -- has run its course. In terms of new production, the ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "Arsenal of Democracy", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " has proven itself incompetent at meaningfully expanding production capabilities for items such as 155mm artillery (the Boeingification of the country). The arms are enough for a continuous war of attrition, and nothing more.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2) Russia will not stop ever; this is a cultural thing, where a high degree of fatalism and an unhealthy obsession with ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "The Great Patriotic War", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " combine into a single-mindedness (or nihilistic attitude) where casualty figures do not matter, outside of a few cosmopolitan areas that have been infected with western memes. Russia has >3x the population of Ukraine and the West is certainly not sending troops to help.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3) I believe the generally pro-Ukrainian bias in reporting has underestimated the toll on Ukraine manpower, etc. and that even with additional gear from the West, they will struggle to launch offensives to retake any large amounts of land. Russia may run low on some gear, but will figure out a way, at least, to acquire enough basics to freeze the lines.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So the likeliest outcome as both sides attrit each other to a standstill is a frozen war of lowering intensity. In that case, the only question is: should the West accept the facts on the ground via brokering a settlement, or should we pretend otherwise and have an unresolved conflict forever on the outskirts of Europe?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7
public
contract
1,719,698,840,102
will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
zei6smc7lh
0.272474
163.919169
NO
null
dy152kmm2g
false
ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/ZaneMiller/will-the-democratic-presidential-ca-9a5c2dfo83", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/ZaneMiller/will-the-democratic-presidential-ca-9a5c2dfo83", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zane
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,719,698,897,346
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
ZaneMiller
https://firebasestorage.…cd7-65f87738b782
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
null
null
0
NO
191da45534e5
7431uwjjdeb
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm suggesting it's an assumption in ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "either", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " direction if there is not actual indication of her thoughts at the moment. I acknowledge she expressed no interest in previous interviews, but the current situation is one where she ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "may", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " reconsider.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think we all would agree that her running would be ridiculous in a way, but where I may differ is in thinking it's exactly these sort of ridiculous things that can plausibly happen. I mean, look at how ridiculous Trump is and how far he got.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(Personally, I would prefer Hilary for her foreign policy chops, but even I can see that is a bigger longshot)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,719,699,107,433
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
731su14xmjw
null
9,319.986048
YES
22ea2b6806c8