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"text": "1) The type of \"support\" the US is giving is not likely to lead to a decisive victory. It has, from the start, been provided grudgingly wrt any advanced weapons systems, and the lower-tech arms -- basically a DoD yard sale of old toys -- has run its course. In terms of new production, the ",
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"text": " has proven itself incompetent at meaningfully expanding production capabilities for items such as 155mm artillery (the Boeingification of the country). The arms are enough for a continuous war of attrition, and nothing more.",
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"text": "2) Russia will not stop ever; this is a cultural thing, where a high degree of fatalism and an unhealthy obsession with ",
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"text": " combine into a single-mindedness (or nihilistic attitude) where casualty figures do not matter, outside of a few cosmopolitan areas that have been infected with western memes. Russia has >3x the population of Ukraine and the West is certainly not sending troops to help.",
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"text": "3) I believe the generally pro-Ukrainian bias in reporting has underestimated the toll on Ukraine manpower, etc. and that even with additional gear from the West, they will struggle to launch offensives to retake any large amounts of land. Russia may run low on some gear, but will figure out a way, at least, to acquire enough basics to freeze the lines.",
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"text": "So the likeliest outcome as both sides attrit each other to a standstill is a frozen war of lowering intensity. In that case, the only question is: should the West accept the facts on the ground via brokering a settlement, or should we pretend otherwise and have an unresolved conflict forever on the outskirts of Europe?",
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"text": "I think we all would agree that her running would be ridiculous in a way, but where I may differ is in thinking it's exactly these sort of ridiculous things that can plausibly happen. I mean, look at how ridiculous Trump is and how far he got.",
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