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"text": "\"“Biden’s debate performance was a catastrophe from which there may be no recovery,” one House Democratic lawmaker texted a Democratic donor, Whitney ... | Andrew G | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,885,594,382 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | AndrewG | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.720941 | 34,306.670094 | YES | null |
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"text": "I'm seeing ~155 kt FLW on Tropical Tidbits, which should be supportive of cat 5 with a 0.91 adjustment. But I don't see any SFMR data for that pass",
... | Savior of Plant | xcdn8kiz7y | public | contract | 1,719,888,067,022 | will-hurricane-beryl-reach-category | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will Hurricane Beryl reach category 5? | iw0nfv8i3bq | 0.413165 | -0 | NO | null |
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"text": "There are a few 10 sec peak winds that support it but not enough adding up for 1 minute. My charts completely filter out any suspect SFMR data only for... | JRP | xcdn8kiz7y | public | contract | 1,719,888,170,769 | will-hurricane-beryl-reach-category | parhizj | Will Hurricane Beryl reach category 5? | iw0nfv8i3bq | 0.413165 | 1,346.019239 | NO | null | |
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"l... | stefanie | ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI | public | contract | 1,719,888,591,022 | bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs | shankypanky | Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | stefanie | ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI | public | contract | 1,719,888,698,138 | bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs | shankypanky | Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs | nxgs8ez5xv | null | null | null | null | |
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} | jackson polack | s7b3q9x08b | public | contract | 1,719,889,096,425 | does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Does listening to music lead to higher utility? | 275vda80j8n | 0.255448 | 37,824.989209 | YES | null |
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} | chris (strutheo) | yqfi6cu8r1 | public | contract | 1,719,889,148,857 | what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-yvfe69r47f | strutheo | What will be the maximum strength of Hurricane Beryl after entering the Gulf of Mexico? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | celery | 1gp250xve5 | public | contract | 1,719,889,276,976 | how-will-the-us-mens-national-team | WhoamI748e | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c | How will the US Men's National Team fare in Copa America? | null | null | 5,062.837229 | YES | pa5bi73yux |
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... | Savior of Plant | xcdn8kiz7y | public | contract | 1,719,889,457,513 | will-hurricane-beryl-reach-category | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will Hurricane Beryl reach category 5? | iw0nfv8i3bq | 0.994576 | -0 | NO | null |
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... | JRP | xcdn8kiz7y | public | contract | 1,719,889,560,450 | will-hurricane-beryl-reach-category | parhizj | Will Hurricane Beryl reach category 5? | iw0nfv8i3bq | 0.994576 | 0 | NO | null | |
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"l... | Niko | 4801edfkwl | public | contract | 1,719,889,623,491 | how-much-will-inside-out-2-gross-at | Moscow25 | How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? Biggest movie of all time? | null | null | 854.799722 | NO | o103ekxiu2 | |
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],... | The Official | bhhnwhp8il | public | contract | 1,719,889,815,248 | will-uruguay-rotate-four-or-more-st | 10thOfficial | Will Uruguay rotate four or more starters (from the Panama match) in their Copa America match against the US? | null | 0.99 | 970.312898 | YES | null | |
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... | Craig Talbert | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,719,890,120,034 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 60ah23e8pxl | 0.733282 | 315.647567 | NO | null |
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... | Niko | 4801edfkwl | public | contract | 1,719,890,190,817 | how-much-will-inside-out-2-gross-at | Moscow25 | How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? Biggest movie of all time? | null | null | 854.799722 | NO | o103ekxiu2 | |
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... | SEE | 3tr4zr1jft | public | contract | 1,719,894,915,431 | one-month-from-today-will-the-supre | SEE | One month from today, will the Supreme Court have issued a decision on Trump's immunity case? | null | 0.99 | 278.389942 | YES | null | |
oe5g6czbcpr | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
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... | Nathan Wei | qQ4a9RSXkN0kUmCU9K7Q | public | contract | 1,719,895,040,177 | will-benjamin-netanyahu-still-be-th | nathanwei | Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be the Prime Minister of Israel throughout this month? | null | null | 204.93949 | YES | 25fed51664d8 | |
0mr2w3n7xgt | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
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],
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} | Ziddletwix | AllX47NI4I6VvhBUERUu | public | contract | 1,719,895,119,607 | will-i-finish-1-in-my-league-gold | Ziddletwix | Will I finish #1 in my league (gold)? | null | 1 | 308.563761 | YES | null | |
s3drg2fdnh | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
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"t... | chris (strutheo) | o9g5uru4PkFfK8Z8UDrs | public | contract | 1,719,895,156,525 | at-the-end-of-2024-what-will-be-the | strutheo | At the end of 2024, what will be the sum of all traders on my twelve "What Will Happen In X Month" Markets? | null | null | 32.8619 | NO | f5a558a9eeb3 | |
dz7aeuh4b4j | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
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} | jim | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | public | contract | 1,719,895,161,220 | in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener | jim | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | f27hlqxlc9s | 0.335015 | 20,692.935689 | YES | null | |
1sscp8t8y11 | false | nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3 | {
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} | David Bolin | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | public | contract | 1,719,895,203,599 | in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener | DavidBolin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | f27hlqxlc9s | 0.335015 | 58,222.497274 | NO | null |
4oqxok52zw | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
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"text": "Does Israel have any plans to annex Gaza? Definitely not.",
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"type":... | Nathan Wei | LfjC8XJig8zOUhpbz93X | public | contract | 1,719,895,232,418 | will-i-be-satisfied-on-january-1st | nathanwei | Will I be satisfied by 2025 that Israeli leadership did not deliberately ignore information about the Hamas attack? | null | 0.424235 | 338.893466 | YES | null | |
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"type": "d... | jim | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | public | contract | 1,719,895,293,611 | in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener | jim | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | f27hlqxlc9s | 0.335015 | 20,692.935689 | YES | null | |
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} | David Bolin | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | public | contract | 1,719,895,340,849 | in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener | DavidBolin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | f27hlqxlc9s | 0.320849 | 58,949.725052 | NO | null |
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"lang... | Benjamin Ikuta | b1xg26vkju | public | contract | 1,719,895,447,273 | will-keith-gilldeep-fucking-valuero | benjaminIkuta | Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME? | null | 0.322706 | 72.292915 | NO | null | |
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"lang... | Benjamin Ikuta | 9ym64ufikx | public | contract | 1,719,895,462,595 | will-the-class-action-lawsuit-again-hhix5fmpmy | benjaminIkuta | Will the class action lawsuit against Keith Gill Deep Fucking Value Roaring Kitty survive a motion to dismiss? | null | null | null | null | null | |
wvg4vje58y8 | false | nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3 | {
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"text": "I actually had a lot of NO in \"Not by End of 2024\" even though I meant to buy yes in that. 500 loss total because of that.",
"type": "text"... | David Bolin | rM6bJsboX2pF3y4qVcyB | public | contract | 1,719,895,477,266 | when-will-kenshin9000-release-a-fun | DavidBolin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c | When will Kenshin9000 release a functioning chess engine? | null | null | 1,096.481942 | NO | f6f844c043db |
9kanmawzrag | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
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"text": "Great analysis, thanks for posting! I think the reason we haven’t moved towards letting creators withdraw liquidity yet is that it would be a bad exper... | Ian Philips | 9DTDU7N5iTbhU78ilknl | public | contract | 1,719,895,508,432 | will-i-get-more-in-fees-returned-li | ian | Will I get more in fees + returned liquidity than the cost of my numeric Daily Active Users market? | bs8bosj4upc | null | null | null | null | |
8blot87bve | false | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | {
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"text": "seeing what sora/runway-gen-3 is producing, + latest lipsync ex ",
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"co... | Blomfilter | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | public | contract | 1,719,895,745,446 | in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener | Blomfilter | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | f27hlqxlc9s | 0.320849 | 724.827336 | YES | null | |
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"text": "Earth being 4.5B years old isn't a conspiracy theory at all. ",
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"typ... | Shihan | WzxnHHNW3ZJDBQgrhfqd | public | contract | 1,719,895,784,183 | whats-the-most-believable-conspirac | Shihan | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8ZfSeIp_wOPEyJo3s5WRmn_BFSZKGYPivVseXj_pbSkznI0e4w=s96-c | What's the most believable conspiracy theory? | null | null | null | null | null |
v9lm32teon | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
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"text": "All of your other options are too far out to be appealing, unfortunately!",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}... | Ian Philips | 97dp0vv3o9 | public | contract | 1,719,895,982,126 | when-will-it-be-possible-to-order-a | ian | When will it be possible to order a drink with "precision fermentation" derived "milk" at Starbucks? | null | null | 116.888118 | NO | rvk1ss18gm | |
9gi4dikw8qq | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
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} | Ian Philips | ercutl1336 | public | contract | 1,719,896,088,180 | will-manifold-refund-any-of-tslabul | ian | Will Manifold refund any of TSLABull's mana purchases? | null | null | null | null | null | |
byy0dm1b1k | false | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | {
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],
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} | Stop Punting | RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH | public | contract | 1,719,896,416,016 | manifold-american-english-pronuncia | StopPunting | Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide | mtyhm1qdgf | null | 276.024404 | YES | rw9d4b5tba | |
kfcnk3b2nn9 | false | IELjXBjAAtQW65PO4jMGit9dlnK2 | {
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... | eva_ | dz5j0b6k30 | public | contract | 1,719,896,546,630 | if-celene-continues-being-off-estro | eva_ | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6HfhFMUncopQDAy7a0bM6FvYaGTIHgRpuJFLM1=s96-c | If Celene continues being off estrogen will she continue experiencing above baseline levels of depression? | null | null | null | null | null |
63tckj5te38 | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
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} | nikki | ercutl1336 | public | contract | 1,719,896,757,040 | will-manifold-refund-any-of-tslabul | nikki | Will Manifold refund any of TSLABull's mana purchases? | 9gi4dikw8qq | 0.113594 | 51.657604 | NO | null | |
sdvhtxr9qim | false | bVxIqkqpoUeu28DWGxLCYOrkoEU2 | {
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"l... | Simon Baars | 0ojyn2dj1a | public | contract | 1,719,896,823,706 | will-i-finish-the-san-francisco-mar | Simon1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpWwkBfk1HjzrIKeO0CZhY0I95YwybPcrlHHSgsSkbB2skJ8cWQQ=s96-c | Will I finish the San Francisco marathon on the 28th of July? | null | null | null | null | null |
o4t0yr4q1if | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
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"type": "doc... | Timothy Johnson | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,719,896,989,116 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | null | null | 1,661.256438 | NO | b3c5aaa8c26f |
5lhij1bruff | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
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... | Timothy Johnson | srtH0vZbB15pnT7ezJTn | public | contract | 1,719,897,107,156 | who-will-be-1-in-masters-league-for | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Who will be #1 in Masters League for any amount of time in the first half of 2024? | null | null | 2,612.218189 | NO | fe917c5ee8c2 |
4ob71vbiics | false | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | {
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"text": "I specified \"after July 4, 2024\" because I'm not referring to the election ",
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... | Greg Rosenthal | 0fh4mivr6o | public | contract | 1,719,897,216,789 | which-party-will-the-economist-endo-h8rounj836 | gregrosent | Which party will The Economist endorse in the next UK general election (after July 4, 2024)? | scx336xcnzs | null | 854.964345 | NO | yl7av47o8h | |
ewt0j3gewwe | false | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | {
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"text": "In retrospect I think the wording is technically what I intended, but relies a lot on one word and is therefore liable to be misinterpreted, making N/A... | Greg Rosenthal | 0fh4mivr6o | public | contract | 1,719,897,674,111 | which-party-will-the-economist-endo-h8rounj836 | gregrosent | Which party will The Economist endorse in the next UK general election (after July 4, 2024)? | scx336xcnzs | null | 854.964345 | NO | yl7av47o8h | |
gmf0e09zl1o | false | 1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23 | {
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... | duN | aa25n3t92w | public | contract | 1,719,897,764,102 | we-just-swapped-the-home-and-browse | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | We just swapped the Home and Browse page functionality. How do you like it? | wshmr2110um | null | null | null | null |
rehl60784wn | false | UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2 | {
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} | Greg Rosenthal | 0fh4mivr6o | public | contract | 1,719,898,210,623 | which-party-will-the-economist-endo-h8rounj836 | gregrosent | Which party will The Economist endorse in the next UK general election (after July 4, 2024)? | scx336xcnzs | null | 854.964345 | NO | yl7av47o8h | |
4ombw2i4zvt | false | KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1 | {
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"type": "ment... | snazzlePop | g3g4aUv1dNGuCtPWKtW8 | public | contract | 1,719,898,334,670 | will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-the-is-bc37927efcb6 | snazzlePop | Will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war that lasts a month or longer and starts before July 2024? | null | 0.01 | 551.23808 | NO | null | |
5x9qicluy43 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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"text": "When would he usually be nominated?",
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} | Bayesian | 6skv683fgj | public | contract | 1,719,898,439,857 | biden-officially-nominated-in-july | Bayesian | Biden formally nominated in July? | null | null | null | null | null | |
2npqq5jkkz | false | KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1 | {
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... | snazzlePop | fT5FKuWEiLEZ3u6rMg9P | public | contract | 1,719,898,444,245 | will-travis-kelsey-and-taylor-swift | snazzlePop | Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up before July? | br89y4hwqv8 | 0.0253 | 131.589684 | NO | null | |
ehybdsua6ws | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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"text": "I wish I could choose which tab is my home page (on the app, which I use far more than the website these days) 🥲",
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... | stefanie | aa25n3t92w | public | contract | 1,719,898,511,907 | we-just-swapped-the-home-and-browse | shankypanky | We just swapped the Home and Browse page functionality. How do you like it? | wshmr2110um | null | null | null | null | |
9ghjjcuekm9 | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
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} | jim | 6skv683fgj | public | contract | 1,719,898,513,151 | biden-officially-nominated-in-july | jim | Biden formally nominated in July? | 5x9qicluy43 | 0.471541 | 8.011258 | NO | null | |
tlb56tc4cwh | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
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