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"alt... | Marnix Vreugdenhil | 9watsxovpi | public | contract | 1,720,166,587,921 | which-dutch-cabinet-ministers-of-ca | MarnixVreugdenhil | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL6tCroNJQ0BIgJn6NsAz-hbeS4uB3CxsJ3_N47csrT-4=s96-c | Which Dutch cabinet ministers (of cabinet Schoof I) will resign before the cabinet falls? [Add answers] | null | null | 81.35005 | NO | 0xlsz9azgm |
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... | Marnix Vreugdenhil | uSJf9ymrDcqzd655ZrfL | public | contract | 1,720,166,681,778 | will-the-dutch-cabinet-fall-in-2024 | MarnixVreugdenhil | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL6tCroNJQ0BIgJn6NsAz-hbeS4uB3CxsJ3_N47csrT-4=s96-c | Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Emanuel Rylke | d7raepyhy8 | public | contract | 1,720,166,764,180 | will-it-come-to-light-that-joe-bide | EmanuelRylke | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgyiJjjZnBxXy8Q-Y1pgJ1DUYZr7kswO8HfCDIZ=s96-c | Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail? | null | 0.048601 | 54.991689 | NO | null |
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} | jim | 42tjls3r8h | public | contract | 1,720,166,937,701 | will-biden-drop-out-before-trump-re | jim | Will Biden drop out before Trump reveals his VP? | w4mjsqqbogk | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Lisa Marsh | oHvAsbLxuCjk6TNPEl91 | public | contract | 1,720,167,006,431 | if-the-uk-conservative-party-wins-5 | lisamarsh | If the UK Conservative Party wins 50 or fewer seats at the next general election, who will be the party's next leader? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Jeremiah | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,167,065,939 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | jeremiahsamroo | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | ryt6aeg19m | 0.456545 | 17,962.639794 | YES | null | |
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"type": "mention"... | alh | M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1 | public | contract | 1,720,167,095,297 | what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene | alh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c | What will be true about the next UK general election? | null | null | 2,221.475628 | YES | 851caa5332f4 |
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... | Patrik Cihal | c78lo9vjaa | public | contract | 1,720,167,522,839 | will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl | patrik | Will anyone pay me to solve a problem for them? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Matt F | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,720,169,620,140 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | MattF | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYf96igKYDAeeCDmrp2xMBcvOR_WlVaHNpyCQbonQ=s96-c | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | er8zrbcaf4 | 0.58 | 420,069.663596 | YES | null |
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} | Bruno | pg3aayijlv | public | contract | 1,720,169,715,551 | will-kamala-harris-be-formally-impl | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Kamala Harris be implicated in the coverup, misleading ppl about biden's mental decline in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "Short of the tweet being \"I'm dissolving the Netherlands and we'll all be Belgians now\", I think that'll still be complicated to ascertain.",
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"text": "Why would anyone in the cabinet write that? Or, if it is someone not in the cabinet writing that, why would it cause the government to fall?",
... | Bruno | btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp | public | contract | 1,720,170,681,071 | what-will-happen-to-cabinet-wilders | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES] | g7b86el6l2a | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "Anything seems possible after this week, but you can bet NO and will check with everyone before resolving if it's not 100% clear. ",
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"text": "With three results to come, the BBC is reporting 59.9%, therefore we are waiting fro Dumfries and Galloway, Inveress and South Basildon which could mak... | Harry Hayfield | Lh4jofJQU0LIgPqtoUGr | public | contract | 1,720,170,961,734 | will-turnout-in-the-2024-general-el | HarryHayfield | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | Will turnout in the 2024 general election be HIGHER than in the 2019 general election? | 0ot5hfg5zdnm | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "That's too much uncertainty for me. A market needs to be unambiguous instead of depending on people with directly conflicting interests coming to an ag... | Bruno | btjXsFOw4arWlEY8OQRp | public | contract | 1,720,171,129,063 | what-will-happen-to-cabinet-wilders | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES] | g7b86el6l2a | null | null | null | null |
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jtaipex109 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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"text": "This would need to be above 67.3% to resolve YES, soooo 59.9% is far off",
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... | Bayesian | Lh4jofJQU0LIgPqtoUGr | public | contract | 1,720,171,213,300 | will-turnout-in-the-2024-general-el | Bayesian | Will turnout in the 2024 general election be HIGHER than in the 2019 general election? | 0ot5hfg5zdnm | 0.040538 | 4,476.680306 | NO | null | |
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... | Harry Hayfield | 7LbNt180iZ3ZL2KEPRte | public | contract | 1,720,171,557,627 | how-many-days-will-rishi-sunak-rema | HarryHayfield | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | How many days will Rishi Sunak remain as Prime Minister after the close of polls in the local elections on May 2nd? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "Turing test should be a world cup. A world champion judge, distinguishes a human vs machine, where the human is also a world champion in persuasion of ... | Luck | Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv | public | contract | 1,720,171,710,009 | agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 | Luck | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocImpvbl9bCB093PzDj8VmNyaEGnNmUkn4ttk5Ol4XUm=s96-c | AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test] | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "It's down to Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire on one hand and South Basildon and East Thurrock on the other; my crystal ball says the former goes to... | Lasse Rasinen | b9qT5UGCY2giNNzd0kbq | public | contract | 1,720,171,934,515 | uk-general-election-how-many-seats-hy0ljfgvfj | LasseRasinen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf10K1zU-KWBKnWHEOj6m9-Qw4wicOY1x1XQl34hRMRgSE=s96-c | UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win? (Cumulative Market) | null | null | 1,746.322398 | NO | ac107751xt |
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"type": "mentio... | Mario F. Schlitzer | YdF6u6ZoXBW2LNRQbhrf | public | contract | 1,720,172,041,927 | will-the-tories-win-the-next-genera | MarioFSchlitzer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5GndKUAGz_h1WVnPpnijYS4spzE5nxX3I-f9E2XcF=s96-c | Will the Tories win the next general election? | null | 0.010029 | 7,896.407199 | NO | null |
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"text": "I agree, latter is close to a toss-up. Basildon and Billericay which is just north of this constituency was won by Tories by just 20 votes over Labour.... | Vaibhav Gupta | b9qT5UGCY2giNNzd0kbq | public | contract | 1,720,172,062,125 | uk-general-election-how-many-seats-hy0ljfgvfj | VaibhavGupta | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb-2zG9DyM1Oj2hEcbvj1CpBg2v9yA0bzHFTD-j=s96-c | UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win? (Cumulative Market) | qprmqay5uv | null | 1,550.880404 | YES | ac107751xt |
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"text": "If somebody will give you $10 for 0.000001% of your company and create a public post on twitter about it this will be resolved as YES?",
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b7fxdpr9aat | false | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | {
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"text": "I think IS&WR leans towards SNP. The other seat could go any direction.",
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... | Magnus | b9qT5UGCY2giNNzd0kbq | public | contract | 1,720,172,675,412 | uk-general-election-how-many-seats-hy0ljfgvfj | thepurplebull | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win? (Cumulative Market) | qprmqay5uv | null | 0 | NO | ac107751xt |
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... | Bayesian | ivAxuMoJn5Y9cwHwjkzi | public | contract | 1,720,172,884,870 | will-manifold-introduce-any-incenti | Bayesian | Will manifold introduce any incentives for betting on long term markets this year? | f1mm1i5q1bk | null | null | null | null | |
1iz4efe75ou | false | cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92 | {
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5lrhnm3fnty | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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"text": "Bit of a surprising upset this one: Adnan Hussain beat the incumbent Labour candidate by 132 votes! Apparently he won largely on a pro-Palestine campai... | Fion | 0JT9mjlkyddkpRcjJgWi | public | contract | 1,720,174,108,035 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-898facf42a92 | Fion | UK General Election: Which party will win in Blackburn? | null | null | 87.475591 | YES | a7ac077b6823 | |
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"type": "menti... | Base | NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA | public | contract | 1,720,174,168,940 | how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2 | Base | How many hits after 30 days? V2 | null | null | 3,330.577938 | YES | q2gi01cipm | |
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"text": "Another surprising win for a pro-Palestine independent against what looked safe for Labour.",
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"type":... | Fion | 2AnGBIX6VGnrXpJ55ITw | public | contract | 1,720,174,292,503 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-eda327a6e7d0 | Fion | UK General Election: Which party will win in Birmingham Perry Barr? | null | null | 87.475591 | YES | 18eadadbdfa6 | |
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"text": "Reform might win a fifth seat (there are still a couple of consistencies that haven’t declared). Would that count for this question as well?",
... | Lisa Marsh | 8540eochhp | public | contract | 1,720,175,299,439 | reform-uk-won-four-seats-in-the-202-z7il8hkpkn | lisamarsh | Reform UK won four seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be held in one of those seats? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "@mods please can you tell me how to resolve July 4 as No?",
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"type": ... | Gordan Knott | wtut21zl2e | public | contract | 1,720,175,335,185 | on-what-date-will-joe-biden-drop-ou | GordanKnott | On what date will Joe Biden drop out of the as a candidate in the US presidential election? | null | null | 0 | NO | jq51dr52u7 | |
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"text": "all options in a linked MC market must stay open until the entire market closes or resolves",
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"type":... | Gordan Knott | wtut21zl2e | public | contract | 1,720,175,391,390 | on-what-date-will-joe-biden-drop-ou | GordanKnott | On what date will Joe Biden drop out of the as a candidate in the US presidential election? | g8g8q21ks7s | null | 0 | NO | jq51dr52u7 | |
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... | Ṁ710 | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,175,938,553 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | ElmerFudd | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FElmerFudd%2FO_VjM6kAYN.07?alt=media&token=41234898-830b-4e46-ae81-5236cc9e8349 | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | filz33s9xrq | null | 38,647.124083 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 |
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} | PoliticalEconomyPK | bcuoqt9anm | public | contract | 1,720,176,159,520 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-on-oct-2 | PoliticalEconomyPK | Will Jimmy Carter be alive up until Oct 2 2025, 12:01 am EST, one day after his 101st birthday? | null | 0.638815 | 214.138345 | YES | null | |
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"text": "This seems ridiculous to me, in that backing off of running from president is one thing, but actually resigning from being president is such a show of... | Scipio Fabius | dei4ssmcwz | public | contract | 1,720,176,166,470 | will-biden-finish-his-term | ScipioFabius | Will Biden finish his term? | h9vsvd8pn3u | 0.794848 | 886.724784 | YES | null | |
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} | Fion | h0hagTataOogzGAAAg5d | public | contract | 1,720,176,265,932 | will-the-scottish-national-party-ge | Fion | Will the Scottish National Party get more than 50% of the vote share in Scotland in the next UK general election? | null | 0.024677 | 1,267.649089 | NO | null | |
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... | Zvi Mowshowitz | ktgJTHrhLp2rZxxSk07M | public | contract | 1,720,176,286,392 | will-mistrallarges-model-weights-be | ZviMowshowitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | Will Mistral-Large's model weights be available within 90 days of release? | vgohaz147xm | null | null | null | null |
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... | Diego Fernández | jAC2JUSg4hhDBrunNtJF | public | contract | 1,720,176,575,825 | conditional-on-the-tiktok-ban-passi | DiegoFernandez46ox | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJT0cy9-_YQDmy7BK7_U0n7xuXwvOJ0eXZtSQy0-Uz4tp5IWt46=s96-c | If the TikTok ban takes effect, will ByteDance divest it OR shut it down in the U.S? | null | null | null | null | null |
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} | Ṁ710 | tPEoMhDBmcqegLdHKrSq | public | contract | 1,720,176,782,454 | has-biden-bottomed-in-the-2024-demo | ElmerFudd | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FElmerFudd%2FO_VjM6kAYN.07?alt=media&token=41234898-830b-4e46-ae81-5236cc9e8349 | Has Biden bottomed? (in the 2024 Democratic nominee market) | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Bruce | zjw4wkd0ih | public | contract | 1,720,177,729,530 | will-biden-or-trump-use-performance | Bruce54df | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | Will Biden or Trump use performance enhancing drugs prior to tonight's debate? | po14zq89cua | 0.36331 | 147.121674 | YES | null |
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],... | Bruce | zjw4wkd0ih | public | contract | 1,720,177,864,059 | will-biden-or-trump-use-performance | Bruce54df | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | Will Biden or Trump use performance enhancing drugs prior to tonight's debate? | po14zq89cua | 0.36331 | 147.121674 | YES | null |
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... | Christopher Randles | u3lyq55lki | public | contract | 1,720,177,909,699 | on-which-data-will-uk-prime-ministe | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | On which data will UK prime ministers Rishi Sunak resign as leader of the conservative party? | null | null | 564.499719 | YES | rll3sm9zh2 |
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... | Nat | pFApJ12OsplIhO50twf3 | public | contract | 1,720,178,472,737 | will-tesla-license-fsd-to-any-major | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Will Tesla License FSD to any major OEM by January of 2025 | titw77vo7c | 0.400397 | 24.996711 | NO | null |
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... | Craig Talbert | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,178,907,534 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | ryt6aeg19m | 0.467835 | -0 | NO | null |
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"attrs"... | Bair | 77bwfbf1kq | public | contract | 1,720,180,118,378 | will-tsla-reach-350-before-8pm-est | Bair | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYUvh0DyDuiAdCtqW5aBt7A1JYDjm0gzHvntw_W5g=s96-c | Will TSLA reach >$ 350 before 8pm EST on December 31st? | null | null | null | null | null |
s1j219ilcef | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
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"text": "if democrats can’t replace Biden without his consent, isn’t that pretty much the definition of authoritarianism?",
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... | Ansel | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,180,211,029 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Ansel | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.454759 | -0 | NO | null | |
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"text": "My BiL has TDS and wants Biden out. That is the first thing he said last time I saw him, lol. I don't know the political persuasion of many people sinc... | Al Quinn | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,180,332,935 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | ryt6aeg19m | 0.454759 | 17,706.775136 | NO | null |
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"text": "Democracy-Autocracy is a sliding scale, and using First Past the Post already takes you significantly away from the pure democracy end of the scale ",
... | Elliot Davies | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,180,352,908 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | s1j219ilcef | 0.454759 | 2,665.628296 | NO | null |
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5nvjz4n3plu | false | wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1 | {
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"text": "I really hope not unless it is a mind upload with proof of identity preservation and qualia experiencing aka not a philosophocal zombie in some way.",
... | Guilherme sampaio de oliveira | nHcZ0OMT9LlnkOLgpitm | public | contract | 1,720,181,423,079 | will-any-rights-be-granted-to-a-sil | Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c | Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050? | null | null | null | null | null |
44u9l133q4u | false | wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1 | {
"content": [
{
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{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Resolution on this is tricky.",
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} | Guilherme sampaio de oliveira | eG8LshGxTIrp2nkQ6CIm | public | contract | 1,720,181,490,844 | how-will-the-data-shortage-for-llm | Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c | How will the data shortage for LLM gets solved | null | null | null | null | null |
o4fqbd8w7km | false | wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1 | {
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"text": "I bet Chun Li on this one.",
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} | Guilherme sampaio de oliveira | oQt1CjVoGMC0uzRjoU3X | public | contract | 1,720,181,552,842 | what-will-be-the-top-3-video-game-c | Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c | What will be the top 3 video game characters searched on Pornhub at the end of 2024? | null | null | 57.666093 | YES | 18ba48e76f9b |
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