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e1sy69egna7 | false | PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2 | {
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"text": "Currently, the RCP Spread score has gone from+1.5 to +3.3, so there's still a little ways to go before this would resolve YES on the 11th. Of course, any dropout before that date would also result in an automatic YES resolution.",
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"text": "Polymarket has been pretty much flat at ~65% now all holiday weekend [for Biden to drop out at all, not before August, like this market] once the market settled",
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"text": "But at this point it looks like we will should within that 39-52% band, taking out short term market fluctuations, unless there is serious news OR like a week passes [since this expires on August 1st so you should expect some decay toward zero at least on week-to-week basis]",
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"text": "Interesting ratio between Polymarket and this market. I think that ~20-30% discount kind of makes sense!",
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"text": "Yes, this is a known problem with low/high probability markets. Ideally some kind of leverage or loan system (which used to exist on Manifold) would correct for this!",
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} | Ben Shindel | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,201,399,759 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | gjdok5mle35 | null | 8,640.391359 | YES | 33b8f3dc81b9 |
687ctt64do9 | false | y5epDloYrxdc6yqnC1VjnTuVCal2 | {
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4gfjhaomcz | false | 4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3 | {
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} | Eric Zhu | ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf | public | contract | 1,720,201,622,471 | who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 | EricZhu | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwS96LK82L2BHeWwAKQ5BGUK0vOjwgZXMXaXONBMqTYi-vgZ48=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | gjdok5mle35 | null | 1,260.507711 | YES | 8de9e54470a7 |
gn653yr21o8 | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
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oguj2kraclh | false | iOmbYUv5WjcsantsT2RzmZllo7x2 | {
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92ab97tant | false | 4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3 | {
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} | Stephen Stroup | B2fNixs0xj3gfQr9yget | public | contract | 1,720,201,852,000 | will-we-develop-a-commercial-comput | StephenStroup | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLv5ULXPgEZROx3C453JFMWQ4dNJdSxstlUNzm_TYDxdK08iapzag=s96-c | Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
0mz257lpie3c | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
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