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b88rwxfo6fl
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Add Jackson!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
0HEwySHVmGEGB94or2Qj
public
contract
1,720,221,096,356
who-will-be-the-top-alltime-trader
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Who will be the top all-time trader on the Manifold leaderboard at end of November 2024?
null
null
195.29474
YES
8dac96c5b860
6jthy1ssuyn
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "just 2 minute clip that was announced beforehand dropped at 6:30 est", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,221,131,137
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
viupvrtl14
null
1,022.661759
YES
6fbbngqjv9
hr3nc03gyf5
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah I think this can be open, just probably shouldn't accept new submissions ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,221,156,055
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
viupvrtl14
null
212.51722
NO
14zac5omn1
58eslgrsppk
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2", "label": "lisamarsh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this can resolve NO, it was only Rishi that resigned. I think the only two other parties that lost any seats were DUP and SNP, and both leaders are staying put, if disappointed.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1
public
contract
1,720,221,174,740
what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What will be true about the next UK general election?
null
null
2,241.822502
NO
d8d8cc60013d
ldqn77tps1i
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1809357522014224874", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1809357522014224874", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,221,193,385
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
viupvrtl14
null
147.121674
YES
zcnm72bnqy
3pw14u3q9o4
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah I think this can be open, just probably shouldn't accept new submissions", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It can but the intent was always to close it before the interview aired—mana ain't free! which is totally fine, it was always likely they'd preview some clips in advance (so people can get the free mana on a few of these, but I'll close it now to preserve the rest, in case more clips come out). ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I mean the actual interview is in <1 hr anyways right, doesn't matter much. (original close time was much earlier, to avoid those preview clips, but this market was super active so i wanted to let it run a bit closer)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,221,328,089
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
viupvrtl14
null
1,177.521008
NO
x5o0nojo76
bttt1r5huat
false
Q2OdR7M0WfSjfJSC0OjSchD2pYm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He's in denial, which isn't good. He doesn't even seem to understand the poll numbers, nor has he watched a recording of the debate. He's not going to step down, it's classic hubris. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan Elton
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,221,339,621
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
delton
https://firebasestorage.…3f9-de1db9ae18d6
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.46504
1,459.122573
YES
null
yub3caxqp3s
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh didn't realize it was open", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
0HEwySHVmGEGB94or2Qj
public
contract
1,720,221,433,486
who-will-be-the-top-alltime-trader
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Who will be the top all-time trader on the Manifold leaderboard at end of November 2024?
b88rwxfo6fl
null
195.29474
YES
8dac96c5b860
ehwwkne5eh
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I just changed it lol. Though I’d intended it to always be open", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Conflux
0HEwySHVmGEGB94or2Qj
public
contract
1,720,221,502,551
who-will-be-the-top-alltime-trader
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Who will be the top all-time trader on the Manifold leaderboard at end of November 2024?
b88rwxfo6fl
null
221.6103
YES
8dac96c5b860
29z30adtpx9
false
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Resolves N/A", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tetra
2nV7mvyfpQ2LICflpc16
public
contract
1,720,221,523,910
if-rachel-reeves-is-the-leader-of-t-a564c6791434
Tetraspace
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
If Rachel Reeves is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election after 2019, will the Labour Party win?
null
null
null
null
null
2k6wiz47x
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "hmm I've noticed an issue with my own recommended math. If ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "code" } ], "text": "E", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " is solved (0 or 1), then intuitively your target price should be ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "code" } ], "text": "(1-T)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " or ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "code" } ], "text": "T", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", respectively, right? (assuming that now the correlation effect is priced in, so ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "code" } ], "text": "R", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " = 0)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "in that case, this formula breaks down. maybe it's because of the assumption that ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "code" } ], "text": "R", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " = 0? or maybe I'm way off on what your target odds should be when ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "code" } ], "text": "E", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " is solved.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "for now, it's ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "good enough", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", but I want to do right by you all so I'm in the process of scratching out a new one. hopefully I can figure it out!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
2l0jx5q7hr
public
contract
1,720,221,716,702
inversion-resolutions-what-would-be
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
[Inverting Resolutions] What would be true in a world where Donald Trump wins the election?
null
null
176.470118
YES
n4tajas3ch
qq7tddb689g
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Forgot to resolve 2am; that happened in April when Tortured Poets Department came out (and also nearly a few days ago)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Conflux
sVwdBfScq27onBtqjARD
public
contract
1,720,221,869,622
how-late-will-i-stay-up-in-2024-exc-bb85ceb2a419
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
How late will I stay up in 2024? (Excludes time zone stuff, see description)
null
null
null
null
null
q7v5t63hxd
false
NQDRGlp1FOdx2jMmzOuiVLcvWwF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Q2OdR7M0WfSjfJSC0OjSchD2pYm1", "label": "delton", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " \"I don't think I did, no.\" He doesn't even fully remember if he watched one of the most pivotal events in his political career.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Petterson
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,221,908,983
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
JamesPetterson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbZkh1hnlH7zRYFgHVu7pFh_HAJOcAAX2_uxDXoy5sx3PoSA=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
null
null
null
null
f98afavnums
false
dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "label": "ovals", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Hey, the Roughriders defeated the Argonauts 30-23 last night. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ReeMARKable
i7j7kfi2bv
public
contract
1,720,222,177,783
-canadian-football-league-cfl-2024
ReeMARKable
https://firebasestorage.…198-b06ea07e9f66
🏈 Canadian Football League (CFL) 2024 Regular Season Games Live (continuation part 2)
null
null
1,743.075661
NO
tmt10lv9us
zm98z2xkh0n
false
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If Warner alludes to the classified docs in his rationale for asking Biden to step down this will resolve YES. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nico
4jTYHuMwZfnS3eL0JIkx
public
contract
1,720,222,875,214
will-sen-mark-warner-not-endorse-bi
NicoDelon
https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb
Will Sen. Mark Warner not endorse Biden for 2024 over his admin’s handling of the classified documents investigation?
null
0.204018
0
YES
null
pdm9b3ircm7
false
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/mark-warner-joe-biden-exit-race-democratic-senators/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/05/mark-warner-joe-biden-exit-race-democratic-senators/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nico
4jTYHuMwZfnS3eL0JIkx
public
contract
1,720,223,141,988
will-sen-mark-warner-not-endorse-bi
NicoDelon
https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb
Will Sen. Mark Warner not endorse Biden for 2024 over his admin’s handling of the classified documents investigation?
null
0.204018
0
YES
null
x8w40hwkter
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Transcript from ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/REGENETARIANISM/status/1809371871772832239", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/REGENETARIANISM/status/1809371871772832239", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Stephanopolous", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ": What were you experiencing as you were going through the debate. Did you know how bad it was going? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Biden", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ": Yeah look.....[pause]... the whole way I prepared. Nobody's fault but mine...nobody's fault but mine. I prepared what I usually would do sitting down as I did coming back from foreign leaders or national security council for explicit detail and I realize about part way through that you know that all the quoted NY Times had me down 10 points before the debate 9 now or whatever the hell it is. The fact of the matter is what I looked at he also lied 28 times. I couldn't ...I mean the way the debate ran. My fault no one else's fault.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" } ], "type": "doc" }
lukres
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,223,357,751
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.430475
2,361.197464
NO
null
2miial7hoq3
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6vJlRNw4NcXkUAI9D2k6rTqTqJM2", "label": "fenouil", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i cant find info on this, could you share why you resolved YES?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
fLSqGIdvIcimIkT3J3vl
public
contract
1,720,223,514,681
will-ios-18-ship-with-ai-features-p
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will iOS 18 feature AI provided by either Anthropic or Google?
null
1
302.986327
NO
null
hu09lppmzvq
false
cPk2sK1WMDdV9n2rJD5QyiYvHlv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Saw a clip of the interview, and Biden said yeah, “Look”…. So “look” can be resolved yes! I made the trade before the interview clip leaked.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alicia Grugett
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,223,515,326
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
AliciaGrugett0537
https://storage.googleap…JD5QyiYvHlv2.png
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
null
null
81.35005
YES
hd81zogvx9
f1t1s38hpxa
false
NQDRGlp1FOdx2jMmzOuiVLcvWwF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "label": "lukres", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Actual gibberish. So sad. And it is only going to get worse as the interview progresses and he starts to fatigue.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Petterson
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,223,597,212
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
JamesPetterson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbZkh1hnlH7zRYFgHVu7pFh_HAJOcAAX2_uxDXoy5sx3PoSA=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
null
null
null
null
zrad2e0rcud
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "D5g8arLKvGUoIN9B25QJIJA31HL2", "label": "Jacek", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this can resolve NO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
6FLDKNuZTyxlWBcerGxD
public
contract
1,720,223,827,394
will-the-uk-government-change-the-c
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will the UK government change the conditions of graduate visa before the next elections?
null
0.043635
679.637934
NO
null
4ozx0ibkbv
false
jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think we could use 2024-08-08 :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jess Riedel
M2QqbxhM9tScUEerv0yO
public
contract
1,720,223,932,146
when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l
JessRiedel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c
When will there be a 5th Starship launch?
null
null
4,422.72683
YES
iz17fz5v44
bte0tl7aauh
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wanna bet 100 mana on Remco dropping Pogacar on a climb during this TDF.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
eIc6hRegmVFSLfYwwLwy
public
contract
1,720,223,937,479
who-will-win-the-2024-tour-de-franc
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Tour de France General Classification (Yellow Jersey)?
null
null
2,245.556217
YES
bc13ce05b37d
fxvwcztrrsh
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I added 500 liquidity, hopefully I remember to bet again after it drizzles in.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
aewwh215ls
public
contract
1,720,223,981,650
who-will-win-stage-8-at-the-2024-to
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win stage 8 at the 2024 Tour de France?
null
null
26.593105
YES
0vljkys4qe
bw816ro24jl
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "label": "egroj", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " He's not looking awesome right now but it seems like the kind of stage his team would allow him to go into a mid-late breakaway on.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
aewwh215ls
public
contract
1,720,224,010,504
who-will-win-stage-8-at-the-2024-to
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win stage 8 at the 2024 Tour de France?
null
null
26.593105
YES
0vljkys4qe
o9cozk5btk
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "label": "egroj", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Can't tell if he's way off form or what, he hasn't looked like \"the\" MVDP we know and love so far.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
aewwh215ls
public
contract
1,720,224,043,722
who-will-win-stage-8-at-the-2024-to
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win stage 8 at the 2024 Tour de France?
null
null
26.593105
YES
0vljkys4qe
ztssz7gxvq
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "label": "egroj", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " If he was on a different team this would be a great buy but I'm not convinced they'll play it that way. They may actually be panicking about not having a win by this point, though.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
aewwh215ls
public
contract
1,720,224,124,268
who-will-win-stage-8-at-the-2024-to
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win stage 8 at the 2024 Tour de France?
null
null
26.593105
YES
0vljkys4qe
u7120sh7ga
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A similar market with live trading!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/biden-abc-interview-mention-market", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,224,486,992
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
null
null
55.453919
NO
g2h3err3sb
w10l3himgch
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Over a week has now melted away with no material changes to the Democrats’ plan. The laws of boomer hubris, Nothing Ever Happens, and the particular flaws of the American center left are all converging on an imminent digital nomination Zoom call originally planned to cow tow to Ohio and minimize protestor opportunities. It’s Joenly just begun.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,225,037,173
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.46
20,934.048183
YES
null
itahbgc4nt
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They won the seat of South Basildon and East Thurrock.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
8540eochhp
public
contract
1,720,225,073,537
reform-uk-won-four-seats-in-the-202-z7il8hkpkn
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Reform UK won four seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be held in one of those seats?
fda1b0getm6
null
null
null
null
4j024eadcfd
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Added!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
M2QqbxhM9tScUEerv0yO
public
contract
1,720,225,113,567
when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
When will there be a 5th Starship launch?
4ozx0ibkbv
null
3,108.013378
NO
1szgdjfyut
bdzc5xwo6m8
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is like if they enrolled FDR into a track and field competition three months before election to prove his physique ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Bandors
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,225,259,443
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.46
13,314.248751
YES
null
a8kuc7jc4rk
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3h7gb21c4w", "label": "/strutheo/will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-u5oxue0x45", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
d0BkGDeC5KxglC73f8RV
public
contract
1,720,225,263,972
will-bitcoin-btc-reach-77777-by-77
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin BTC reach $77777 by 7/7? (July 7th)
null
0.010283
731.978691
NO
null
s9hq0m1vdn
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "arb ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "y5kIMNWG1C7wpWOV8Ubf", "label": "/Predictor/will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-a0c340ea0698", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
QTdZI6KhdEtDR5TMnc3g
public
contract
1,720,225,305,365
will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-88d5dcfd401f
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of July?
null
null
null
null
null
nnhzjghw99
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3h7gb21c4w", "label": "/strutheo/will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-u5oxue0x45", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
dSbHdrtyw9Z1LbN9zIA1
public
contract
1,720,225,336,859
will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-917493a83bff
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of NEXT Cinco de Mayo? (May 5th 2025)
null
null
null
null
null
uclptzy4xvj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3h7gb21c4w", "label": "/strutheo/will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-u5oxue0x45", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
xrobwQaCZ5HyAGAAQAtM
public
contract
1,720,225,364,062
will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-af729c1b6af3
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of August 23rd 2024?
null
0.124518
171.578092
NO
null
nflbr0vvx9i
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What happens if Claude responds that Biden did equally well, or otherwise doesn't give a clear answer that one was better than the other?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nat
7gki7nghgx
public
contract
1,720,225,528,954
will-biden-do-better-on-the-abc-int
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will Biden do better on the ABC interview than the debate, according to LLM on the transcripts?
null
0.5
0
YES
null
vm7enf27gu
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That falls under the \"if that doesn't work\" clause. I will keep trying until it gives an answer.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
7gki7nghgx
public
contract
1,720,225,573,264
will-biden-do-better-on-the-abc-int
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will Biden do better on the ABC interview than the debate, according to LLM on the transcripts?
nflbr0vvx9i
null
null
null
null
86q509lc1vm
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62", "label": "AriZerner", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " time to resolve yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
hhbzqmigrr
public
contract
1,720,225,843,604
will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)
km6d64595qn
0.99
10,029.308913
YES
null
82k4re1q7ze
false
hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wow, you're watching closely! Indeed, tested here: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-this-market-get-me-a-job-in-20", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-this-market-get-me-a-job-in-20", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ari Zerner
hhbzqmigrr
public
contract
1,720,225,928,984
will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator
AriZerner
https://firebasestorage.…0a6-a9d433b24f4c
Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)
km6d64595qn
null
null
null
null
ywl0pylnh5b
false
rhpWHgxsxKNsfjJztZbg4rXfpvm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't think democrats can create a big enough movement to get Biden off of the ticket. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As such, my odds are 65/35 Biden/Other. Let's examine further fallout in the next few weeks.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
betszn
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,226,179,959
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
szn
https://firebasestorage.…760-d351e5954aa6
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
null
null
null
null
l7p5ixe3z5
false
hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "New market for adding this to the UI: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator-cnxy569d74", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator-cnxy569d74", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ari Zerner
hhbzqmigrr
public
contract
1,720,226,591,364
will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator
AriZerner
https://firebasestorage.…0a6-a9d433b24f4c
Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)
null
null
null
null
null
2ceto17krll
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Arbitrage opportunity: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/conditional-on-trump-and-biden-bein?r=TXVnYVNvZmVy", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/conditional-on-trump-and-biden-bein?r=TXVnYVNvZmVy", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,227,880,254
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.446901
2,875.356697
YES
null
136sc8nyi34f
false
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.news-medical.net/news/20240705/New-deadly-strain-of-mpox-found-in-DRC-could-spread-exponentially-among-humans.aspx", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "New deadly strain of mpox found in DRC could spread exponentially among humans", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Adrian
Jd8WGCELZhGinYOo8FWn
public
contract
1,720,227,882,383
will-the-who-declare-another-public-59696632e276
ahalekelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c
Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
h2bbbaluqcm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FnaF0bcYpKx.avif?alt=media&token=07c1d1c6-38a9-417b-9700-c1f92e766f4d", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4l1kqqkipp
public
contract
1,720,227,886,400
which-character-of-the-office-will
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which character of The Office will Manifold rate Trump's vice president running mate as most similar to?
null
null
null
null
null
uhura6bcyok
false
8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hope by 2026, it will be trivial", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Sss
eG8LshGxTIrp2nkQ6CIm
public
contract
1,720,227,929,463
how-will-the-data-shortage-for-llm
Sss19971997
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c
How will the data shortage for LLM gets solved
44u9l133q4u
null
0
YES
264558493575
d3bz5258ahu
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "here it is", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8LoAsHz-Mc", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8LoAsHz-Mc", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,228,007,133
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say?
null
null
379.189394
YES
22o3qycwx1
sskv31w3stf
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No? That market resolves YES or N/A.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,228,022,800
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
2ceto17krll
0.446901
5,671.067669
YES
null
8nwbgd0jj0n
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "upgraded to basic", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4l1kqqkipp
public
contract
1,720,228,035,922
which-character-of-the-office-will
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which character of The Office will Manifold rate Trump's vice president running mate as most similar to?
null
null
0
NO
0nroqxw49e
2nmn8a2ll4k
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "should probably close market at this point?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,228,081,569
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say?
null
null
379.189394
YES
22o3qycwx1
j4a0hwcotr
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i was writing a comment about how canada doesnt stand a chqnce when they scored", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
hp7mkb48d9
public
contract
1,720,228,481,805
will-venezuela-beat-canada-copa-ame
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Venezuela beat Canada? | Copa America 2024
null
0.378649
811.641022
NO
null
6zp6lrw0hsn
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Early, but still iffy", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Universal FC ⚽
hp7mkb48d9
public
contract
1,720,228,527,246
will-venezuela-beat-canada-copa-ame
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Will Venezuela beat Canada? | Copa America 2024
j4a0hwcotr
0.378649
333.918222
NO
null
iu8dsy1jrmq
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "real", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,228,894,077
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say?
2nmn8a2ll4k
null
461.891495
NO
iqpcd2yqux
uvcmxuw9d7d
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "League vs League in total goals. So PL vs Bundesliga, PL vs La Liga, etc.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,720,229,184,168
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
730hje3rgep
null
1,799.497005
NO
94dbi9xjvs
6qy5b5d38u7
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Full Transcript:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/abc-news-anchor-george-stephanopoulos-exclusive-interview-biden/story?id=111695695", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/abc-news-anchor-george-stephanopoulos-exclusive-interview-biden/story?id=111695695", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,229,629,920
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say?
null
null
461.891495
NO
iqpcd2yqux
1cpa87ya1vj
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "full interview : ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8LoAsHz-Mc", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8LoAsHz-Mc", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "George was a bit more hard on him than i expected, kept coming back to whether he would take a proper neurological/medical test, which biden refused to answer.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,229,634,052
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.462101
3,342.643807
NO
null
wbu8oaz47s
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "BhNkw088bMNwIFF2Aq5Gg9NTPzz1", "label": "acc", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Oh god acc is bad", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
HRp4kfkCqYq0riJ4GLK5
public
contract
1,720,229,749,965
will-giving-what-we-can-handle-dona
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Giving What We Can handle donations to the Happier Lives Institute in July 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
pafy7pxxlfc
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Full Transcript:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/abc-news-anchor-george-stephanopoulos-exclusive-interview-biden/story?id=111695695", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/abc-news-anchor-george-stephanopoulos-exclusive-interview-biden/story?id=111695695", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,229,803,840
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
null
null
1,022.661759
YES
6fbbngqjv9
2xw01q3vtp8
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8z_CCsY2BG.png?alt=media&token=cdac3520-14ab-4db9-a564-0985da89872d", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Owen Goal plz", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Predictor 🔥
hCFvbgtN5ydJubZfYcFQ
public
contract
1,720,229,877,745
who-will-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-e
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Who will be the top goalscorer at EURO 2024?
3znte7clac8
null
0
NO
04af70573301
lmjb12opg
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1", "label": "Blomfilter", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " lul", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,230,026,241
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say?
null
null
461.891495
NO
iqpcd2yqux
f45fif8mv2
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "even the transcribers are at his mercy lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-mojDAi5YO.png?alt=media&token=1201fb9c-19d9-4004-b4ab-9b6835acf637", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,230,145,989
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say?
lmjb12opg
null
435.493178
YES
jltqzgu1d6
tajz9e87fm
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "thanks! going through it now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,230,168,678
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
pafy7pxxlfc
null
1,177.521008
NO
x5o0nojo76
p8qohviu54q
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sorry for the delay. Today and tomorrow are the 2 biggest days of the year at the track where I work", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stuart Slagle
i7j7kfi2bv
public
contract
1,720,230,169,982
-canadian-football-league-cfl-2024
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
🏈 Canadian Football League (CFL) 2024 Regular Season Games Live (continuation part 2)
f98afavnums
null
3,283.12353
YES
w4ysg1lbaz
yv25bnuw1r
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"they checked if I had some infection--you know, a virus--and I didn't. I just had a really bad cold\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Biden on virology. (I'm curious what % of people actually believe he had a cold)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,230,450,582
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.471261
17,706.775136
NO
null
kaczj2dkdug
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I went through the ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/abc-news-anchor-george-stephanopoulos-exclusive-interview-biden/story?id=111695695", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "transcript", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", and resolved YES everything that I found. Currently, I plan to resolve everything else NO. I'll wait a day to resolve these all NO, to give time for people to flag anything that I might have missed. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,230,548,955
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
null
null
1,177.521008
NO
x5o0nojo76
k2dk1rx2bgh
false
tudHP7KyUuQVm9yjwuSerlRfPAU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Market seems to be a weird spam / advertisement?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tanner Newell
lv7g5t6mst
public
contract
1,720,230,623,501
modular-helmets-with-antifog-visors-c144m1gu08
TannerNewell
https://firebasestorage.…f24-648558eb4c51
Modular Helmets with Anti-Fog Visors for Safe and Clear Riding
null
null
null
null
null
l91g781bwwk
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "looks accurate so far 🫡 thank you ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,230,634,544
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
kaczj2dkdug
null
1,022.661759
YES
6fbbngqjv9
cwrc22hgffc
false
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The new mpox strain (Clade Ib) is more deadly than the previous strain, with a fatality rate ~5%. But the new strain doesn't appear to be more infectious, it still requires close physical contact to spread, and is still primarily sexually transmitted, with some lesser spread within children. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON522", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "There are 7,851 suspected mpox cases in the DRC this year as of the end of May", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ":", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FihD2BhZKdo.png?alt=media&token=7eed4f63-85bd-494a-aec7-ca4497b65cf6", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/health-emergency-information-risk-assessment/20240628_mpox_external-sitrep_34.pdf?sfvrsn=7a4abfce_1&download=true", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "here is the number of lab-test-confirmed cases by continent:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fk-LnLgWqUJ.png?alt=media&token=b3910722-d4ae-4aaa-9bda-79b50b0dfe5c", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Adrian
Jd8WGCELZhGinYOo8FWn
public
contract
1,720,230,747,696
will-the-who-declare-another-public-59696632e276
ahalekelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c
Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025?
136sc8nyi34f
0.298426
82.105306
YES
null
mcmpgrbkfhm
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this market resolve live? Or later? Does the lack of resolution mean it hasn't happened yet? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Quroe
3uedjcwxxe
public
contract
1,720,231,123,340
will-i-go-to-new-york-tonight
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
Will I go to New York tonight?
null
null
null
null
null
vg9cbdxk9e
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Among other things, Biden sounds so non-Bayesian here. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Craig Talbert
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,231,309,974
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.44547
-0
NO
null
jumozzv9c1e
false
4Ou4U9ubQ8f4pMsswck3jZjyXEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Your honour i SWEAR he said skibidi", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eric Zhu
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,231,318,472
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
EricZhu
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwS96LK82L2BHeWwAKQ5BGUK0vOjwgZXMXaXONBMqTYi-vgZ48=s96-c
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
kaczj2dkdug
null
32.885562
NO
bfalwi2nym
fxzp54kauww
false
nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oo1E5R26RIaZWekjwf88Kd5IOin1", "label": "MichaelL", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Please resolve.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(As I indicated below, I think ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-edu/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-edu/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " counts as a YES.)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SEE
rM38A2v6vY0JnJxmXnsF
public
contract
1,720,231,484,305
will-openai-release-an-educational
SEE
https://firebasestorage.…0d4-d49ff5ae1dfb
Will OpenAI release an educational license for ChatGPT by July 1, 2024?
null
0.032339
619.299798
YES
null
xaxshn85xe
false
gKC4MaMryuNm6wJuVP3BlfSGH9u2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And your reactions is why I asked it 😅", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Vortex
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,720,231,489,097
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Vortex
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6RRFtOCYYC4G52ui0ZxECVkzYuoR73wi1IKxLm=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
7gc29pnama
null
8.584731
NO
exup1efmit
fgb0roh0ube
false
cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/jrTYdOEaiy0?t=1399", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bill Gates seems to be referencing to GPT5 coming next year", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "from an interview released a few days ago : 23m 19s", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " \"I've seen that we may make progress on that [metacognition] next year\"", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Bill seems to be actively involved with Microsoft’s AI efforts & their OpenAI partnership. He also knows Sam & Greg and was shown an early demo of ChatGPT by them. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elf
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,720,231,720,389
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
elf
https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
null
0.455577
3,544.624146
NO
null
1n5ue7w30j
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "😭😭😭", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,231,745,680
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say?
lmjb12opg
null
461.891495
NO
iqpcd2yqux
eyfmfgv0sks
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Your honour, that's cap. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Quroe
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,231,804,011
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
kaczj2dkdug
null
428.299192
YES
x5o0nojo76
zsbtfmihe3
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm getting the impression that either they don't show Biden any real polling data, or he can't read a poll.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,231,878,377
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.446692
17,706.775136
NO
null
5i5yv221qw
false
cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What capabilities do you think it could have?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " And do you think those capabilities would lead them to delay it until after the US election & possibly until next year? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I also wonder how proportionate model size is to the time it takes to red-team ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elf
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,720,232,172,911
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
elf
https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
ooxlg8ibfhk
0.455577
3,544.624146
NO
null
cqa7gni4eqo
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I mean, if it happened I'd hope that someone who at least claims to hve met the person or know anything about them would speak up", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Right now I have me => Bayesian => colorednoise (person I don't know) => proposed person flying in from Africa, no name, demographics, username, description, sex, anything.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this is a really long chain, not admissible in US courts I believe.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The minimum bar I'd really hope to get is for someone known, with a username, history, etc to say that they personally met someone who told them they flew from africa, and at least be able to describe the person", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'll give it a few more days for someone to clearly and honestly state this, otherwise this will NO and so would the \"someone came from all 6 continents\" market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
gKUcJ2i7WIQtnkey4QiD
public
contract
1,720,232,388,737
will-someone-from-each-of-the-6-maj-ee45eb23f799
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Will someone coming from each of the 6 major continents of the world attend Manifest 2024?
us7vbk8qto
null
null
null
null
ymoizpqdkye
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ask on discord, I guess", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
gKUcJ2i7WIQtnkey4QiD
public
contract
1,720,232,523,428
will-someone-from-each-of-the-6-maj-ee45eb23f799
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will someone coming from each of the 6 major continents of the world attend Manifest 2024?
us7vbk8qto
0.619351
0
NO
null
7eck9qa5slv
false
vqOl1dlQVOSB2G1M7JIHzLcrooa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Apparently Biden has cancelled a bunch of upcoming fundraisers… ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/leadingreport/status/1809404378370937239?s=46&t=UJP2QQFpfK_Fn9l02l93Ng", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/leadingreport/status/1809404378370937239?s=46&t=UJP2QQFpfK_Fn9l02l93Ng", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kwame Osei
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,232,745,893
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
KwameOsei
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4qRkce5XFoxssZ_Z0BMJ4Aw1YVRC8EdMiNS4wz=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.447319
551.149216
NO
null
l41dwbjrgbo
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Shit, you're right.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,232,845,624
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
2ceto17krll
0.44
2,875.356697
YES
null
3jqte9r2jby
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's twice now I've misread the terms of that market and lost money on it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,232,992,383
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
2ceto17krll
0.436286
2,875.356697
YES
null
wijr8zyl6a
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No source and it's on twitter. 20% chance it's true.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,233,016,860
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
7eck9qa5slv
0.436286
17,706.775136
NO
null
fzv8v8s0lo
false
6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1809301462633312610", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1809301462633312610", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jeremiah
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,233,065,223
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
jeremiahsamroo
https://firebasestorage.…505-bf96c382dfc3
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.443923
17,962.639794
YES
null
a0zall99qzp
false
j4HC6TgsW4UUvIYi3re1XbsZX8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Event ongoing right now!", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Day 1a had 915 entrants; Day 1b had 831 entrants; Day 1c has had 2,387 entries so far ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Knuffa
3xTz1aTklAoXSeNVqx1x
public
contract
1,720,233,107,729
how-many-people-will-enter-the-wsop
Knuffa
https://firebasestorage.…167-73b05fea9219
How many people will enter the WSOP 2024 main event?
null
null
87.107746
YES
12781a2284b3
eo8dty693pr
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this is directly claims from colorednoise in the other markets and this one, though", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
gKUcJ2i7WIQtnkey4QiD
public
contract
1,720,233,427,274
will-someone-from-each-of-the-6-maj-ee45eb23f799
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will someone coming from each of the 6 major continents of the world attend Manifest 2024?
us7vbk8qto
0.619351
620.335942
NO
null
j7fzhkdw75c
false
tudHP7KyUuQVm9yjwuSerlRfPAU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "An alleged source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/us/politics/biden-fund-raising-campaign.html?smid=url-share", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/us/politics/biden-fund-raising-campaign.html?smid=url-share", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tanner Newell
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,233,466,027
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
TannerNewell
https://firebasestorage.…f24-648558eb4c51
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
7eck9qa5slv
0.453259
6,114.468799
NO
null
c1a50271wce
false
SfH0WteH4na7JfryESSfXXcIIRB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I apologize for misresolving this market. It should have resolved to YES as Steam has announced their Game Recording Beta (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://store.steampowered.com/gamerecording", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://store.steampowered.com/gamerecording", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "). I emailed Manifold to see if I can fix it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mark Henry
YljkSSYYXRgqktU0gC6N
public
contract
1,720,233,858,154
will-steam-launch-a-clip-service-be
MarkHenry
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6k2oH1-PyZO_VflpQEuiAO0UNCE-48MQhwCBTUV8Y=s96-c
Will Steam launch a clip service before the end of 2024?
null
0
63.067206
YES
null
g4nx5ww5csu
false
SfH0WteH4na7JfryESSfXXcIIRB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I apologize for misresolving this market. 2024 is not over yet so I don't know how this happened. I have emailed Manifold to see if I can fix this.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mark Henry
d2EpqD00WYu8uDkuvCIV
public
contract
1,720,233,909,537
will-discord-launch-a-clip-service
MarkHenry
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6k2oH1-PyZO_VflpQEuiAO0UNCE-48MQhwCBTUV8Y=s96-c
Will Discord launch a clip service before the end of 2024?
null
0
142.239592
NO
null
qi1uxav8la
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jlgqy9kvt9", "label": "/Eliza/will-the-race-leader-use-a-yellow-t", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Someone can satisfy my curiosity by fixing the pricing here.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
eIc6hRegmVFSLfYwwLwy
public
contract
1,720,234,213,815
who-will-win-the-2024-tour-de-franc
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Tour de France General Classification (Yellow Jersey)?
null
null
2,245.556217
YES
bc13ce05b37d
sbttwqmd99n
false
ITykTD6aBhXvoPlj3EKWcD3V7ew1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when nothing happens.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Finn
0I5Ud3F6iS0QbC5DNEnl
public
contract
1,720,234,408,513
will-the-israel-invade-lebanon-by-t
Finn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKVvsHaT6c7g1TYXpMNl4Zut1vEhLBcKphRh1IvHnu0=s96-c
Will the Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?
null
0.482026
0
YES
null
hpyzvad9win
false
vqOl1dlQVOSB2G1M7JIHzLcrooa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Kamala is even more unpopular than Biden, how is she 20 points up here?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kwame Osei
rEjvq11HwIopdqvN8ufV
public
contract
1,720,234,785,624
who-would-win-the-presidential-elec
KwameOsei
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4qRkce5XFoxssZ_Z0BMJ4Aw1YVRC8EdMiNS4wz=s96-c
Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
li4o19362t
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How is this sustainable? Is he convinced if he just stalls this out, the donors will come back?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,234,816,108
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
7eck9qa5slv
0.436797
10,219.97667
NO
null
hmhguci7uv
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Biden did fine IMO.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But the interview questions were actually very soft IMO, in the following sense. Sticking to just one topic meant that Biden could go on autopilot/stick to prep and his cognitive abilities weren't really tested.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
7ogm78ukcz
public
contract
1,720,235,162,626
how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status?
null
null
839.789202
YES
fk8k0b0c4y
bebltfeddsk
false
LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Look ... we finally defeated Medicare!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Harrison Lucas
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,720,235,318,107
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
HarrisonLucas
https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
0.110261
6,197.939894
NO
null
ikr0t17lf6
false
LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also: vote Taylor Swift!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will she win before 2035?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Harrison Lucas
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,720,235,408,022
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
HarrisonLucas
https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
0.110261
6,197.939894
NO
null
z597blix4bd
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
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Timothy Johnson
7ogm78ukcz
public
contract
1,720,236,321,620
how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status?
hmhguci7uv
null
525.620552
NO
6oerv4jtgv
707myveusyu
false
F2jc9n4FB6OOasUMHUGgtogzrl42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My question is with regards to the boundaries of the bins. What exactly is the boundary date between \"2024-2025\" and \"2025-2026\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Amaryllis
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,720,236,441,443
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
Amaryllis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2j31d1kIbC6pIFYbWAI1pkquDheFj06csGbOo3=s96-c
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
ckfb29m0zb4
null
7,660.756666
YES
1d0fd5249e2c
403omc1adv
false
ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2
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mint
9U9zcIYWE1m52Rb9Z0X8
public
contract
1,720,236,789,530
who-will-be-the-next-permanent-pres
mint
https://firebasestorage.…6c1-5baf736896c2
Who will be the next permanent President of Iran?
null
null
4,581.734824
YES
1ifq4pmb71