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0r1mk15ustgq | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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ywhvlpu2y2j | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
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dtq95uidu0d | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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g98fo9bqzf | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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891zfr2sbru | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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"text": "I sold all my positions in the \"Will Biden be the 2024 Nominee\" markets because I have zero doubt that Trump will win if Biden runs. Therefore, \"will Biden be President\" has all my money now. He's either going to quit, or he will take the House and Supreme Court down with him.",
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xtj97w8zejc | false | MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1 | {
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"text": "Historically spoiled ballots have been about 0.2-0.3% of the vote (not very helpful here though!) although this time they might be higher due to the increase in postal voting post-COVID combined with the much stricter postal vote verification rules.",
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aff9ozb9m6g | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
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l9ln6esprt | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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"text": "all 4 of those things need to happen for the market to resolve YES, which is a lot of things. Since most of the time things don't end up happening, most of the time most 4 things don't all happen at once, ergo probably this won't happen. That's the argument for NO. There's a forecasting meme that goes \"Nothing ever happens\".",
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"text": "that's a higher probability than I would give it! does a leak include \"there are rumors that some letter was written and delivered\" or is it specifically \"The precise letter written by the precise people got leaked and anyone can read it now and also the president definitely saw it\"? The latter one feels like a coinflip to me but idrk politics",
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