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noqmgr51m1j
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this can resolve NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
Bdt5fVrB5w1hharlzY9x
public
contract
1,720,209,946,381
will-germany-win-uefa-euro-2024
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will Germany win UEFA Euro 2024?
null
0.01
6,077.965753
NO
null
dwjythrnqp6
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mass governor calls on Biden to \"reevaluate\" is presidential run.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Niko
22hfpmu6zb
public
contract
1,720,209,998,864
will-a-sitting-democrat-governor-ca
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a sitting Democratic state governor call for Joe Biden to step down by end of July? (23 governors)
null
0.59688
129.303597
NO
null
g3puypwa15g
false
Q9XCF79f7JgZF8itYw5uDJg3Whm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
blankspace737
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,720,210,007,887
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
stardust
https://firebasestorage.…901-b7160011e796
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
iz43l0d3y8b
null
9,215.763031
YES
33b8f3dc81b9
7fct6mbcick
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "She is calling on him to \"listen to the people\"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Niko
22hfpmu6zb
public
contract
1,720,210,060,628
will-a-sitting-democrat-governor-ca
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a sitting Democratic state governor call for Joe Biden to step down by end of July? (23 governors)
null
0.59688
129.303597
NO
null
7au9tvke53t
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "She is not asking him to step down. Yet. But a clarification could clear that hurdle!", "type": "text" }, { "attrs"...
Niko
22hfpmu6zb
public
contract
1,720,210,116,235
will-a-sitting-democrat-governor-ca
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a sitting Democratic state governor call for Joe Biden to step down by end of July? (23 governors)
null
0.59688
129.303597
NO
null
hameea4ygfi
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "feeling pretty deflated lately so I'm circulating this again - anyone have some nice things to share? 🧡", "type": "text" } ], ...
stefanie
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,720,210,210,412
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
null
null
null
null
null
i65xa2q28v
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Meanwhile Mass governor has called for Biden to \"reevaluate his re-election bid\" and \"listen to the people.\" ", "type": "text" },...
Niko
wylmmdwmkw
public
contract
1,720,210,230,151
will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
null
0.638401
2,240.586728
YES
null
em9xvgqn6ld
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mass governor calling for Biden to re-evaluate his re-election bid...", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Niko
w4l6r8bqau
public
contract
1,720,210,272,028
will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
null
0.440536
28,366.604593
YES
null
7crd717qrki
false
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The resolution criteria count either asking Biden to consider ending his campaign or urging him to do so, so language like this in a letter signed by m...
Manifold Politics
wylmmdwmkw
public
contract
1,720,210,459,924
will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
ManifoldPolitics
https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
i65xa2q28v
0.644339
-0
NO
null
aybnk51fpyc
false
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeehaw! 🤠 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
niko
2l0jx5q7hr
public
contract
1,720,210,505,578
inversion-resolutions-what-would-be
Nikos
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
[Inverting Resolutions] What would be true in a world where Donald Trump wins the election?
3tzc65d12w
null
2.054833
YES
d6at09urdg
4hzom340rx4
false
22vje7Gs7Ga9EJVOdaSMAJUyRtf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not today.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
coprod
xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
public
contract
1,720,210,728,540
will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e
the_coproduct
https://firebasestorage.…126-5954297853f8
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
null
0.599242
-0
YES
null
it44m9063fs
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "label": "MP", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
vOSZRba2iqslRQ9vx9Ht
public
contract
1,720,210,782,724
when-will-bte-capitulate-on-his-neg
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
When will @BTE capitulate on his negative views on Donald Trump electoral prospects?
null
null
null
null
null
sj0jvab0tsa
false
I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3", "label": "Kraalnaxx", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Kraalnaxx
g4knaf1vl4
public
contract
1,720,210,944,382
which-youtube-channels-will-release-oaiu6u16tr
Kraalnaxx
https://firebasestorage.…653-9bc927b2a59d
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,065.180737
YES
ohlkca8xix
mowpkipkorm
false
PWH4JqBzijQquOebZtvvYbrK7iq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I didn't realize they got rid of the loans. I guess I shouldn't bet against low-probability events then.", "type": "text" }, ...
Matthew Lichti
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,720,210,988,996
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
MatthewLichti
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbkRzE7gyWG5PZiuSBMLMCLIpUqGcOuI2tpoIMb=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
gjdok5mle35
null
6,114.716216
YES
8de9e54470a7
bizhckspbk4
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "On the first line of reasoning we can presume people have qualia because we have qualia ourselves, at least i do, thus other physical machinery similar...
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
nHcZ0OMT9LlnkOLgpitm
public
contract
1,720,210,989,184
will-any-rights-be-granted-to-a-sil
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?
5nvjz4n3plu
null
null
null
null
xnju48i44t
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for the clarification! I wasn't sure. But I guess I should have known how imprecise the letter might be...", "type": "text" },...
Niko
wylmmdwmkw
public
contract
1,720,211,022,762
will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
i65xa2q28v
0.646111
2,240.586728
YES
null
qvx5a098lui
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ziddletwix has already created a similar market but I like my ruleset a bit better ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragr...
Jack
96tluedrp5
public
contract
1,720,211,028,596
biden-abc-interview-mention-market
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will be said?
null
null
317.247834
NO
mxcuj9e2h9
d4f4pd35ll5
false
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The thing about the memo arguing for Kamala is we have no idea who actually wrote it, it could very well be mid-level former campaign staffers who we'v...
Manifold Politics
wylmmdwmkw
public
contract
1,720,211,157,898
will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
ManifoldPolitics
https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
i65xa2q28v
0.649191
-0
NO
null
bgs2gaeazqd
false
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Al Gore Twenty Fore", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Magnus
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,720,211,361,866
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
thepurplebull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
null
null
327.71653
NO
f03a6835c810
0o9nruqt96h
false
emRNR82UsUQObGGWfgsggFXAqG83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Musk said they have another set of catching arms ready to go. This means they can have more than one catch attempt this year even if arms get damaged. ...
nikstar
rjy1qNUEsSiphHi3PCAN
public
contract
1,720,211,425,430
will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
nikstar
https://firebasestorage.…013-39b219bbaa91
Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?
null
0.643116
141.443957
YES
null
1tv45ukqz2w
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I just don't understand getting offended like this. The Biden WH spun to about the degree I expect any politician to spin, the media had its usual rang...
Shaked Koplewitz
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,211,436,094
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ns2ouely5rg
0.482606
4,294.433372
YES
null
06nma4u4z3zl
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mark Warner is supposedly assembling a team to ask Joe Biden to re-evaluate or drop out.", "type": "text" }, { "att...
Niko
5yd7o6zsbr
public
contract
1,720,211,573,729
will-a-sitting-democratic-senator-c
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a sitting Democratic Senator call for Joe Biden to step down by July 14th?
null
0.653346
335.420922
NO
null
l03rxgzv3y9
false
9m484CVahhf8fQRMLcvycrAi8Yw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’m split between sriracha and what is this I don’t even.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
John Smith
5wmkqi7o0z
public
contract
1,720,211,585,221
which-sauce-or-condiment-will-be-th
JohnSmithb9be
https://storage.googleap…LcvycrAi8Yw2.png
Which sauce or condiment will be the most popular on human flesh in 2027?
kk755kyt2p
null
null
null
null
xob2lxjhq4i
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Austin should probably stay at the hospital tbh", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
wauc7676ia
public
contract
1,720,211,599,602
who-will-earn-the-most-mana-at-poke-1ewgjb46fw
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Who will earn the most mana at poker night?
null
null
262.647238
NO
duwxzp7g3o
y2g6j06z17
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "agreed -- Kamala memo [assuming it's real] is more like a position paper by a staffer", "type": "text" } ], "type": "para...
Niko
wylmmdwmkw
public
contract
1,720,211,686,217
will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
i65xa2q28v
0.660924
2,374.698364
YES
null
ttixjw9knek
false
N3nZqEPisQfbxDDV7MNiyAkmAzd2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Casey
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,211,736,088
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Caseythezahima
https://firebasestorage.…d7d-273f19286615
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
null
null
null
null
yx2sn8y18n
false
0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2", "label": "ShakedKoplewitz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
Bruno Joyal 🍅
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,211,873,883
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
BrunoJ
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteYBxZSAOQI4rRpDCyiUNObDhTNJGeFDpW2VnHY5rWn5Eo=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ns2ouely5rg
0.492438
13,173.785757
NO
null
2jo8qjfxuoh
false
LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Al Gore, Bill Clinton and George W Bush are all younger than Trump and Biden. Clinton and Gore were elected 30 years ago.", "type": "text" ...
becauseyoudo
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,720,211,982,563
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
becauseyoudo
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
bgs2gaeazqd
null
508.396174
YES
f03a6835c810
w0ek1iy50ha
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I didn't say unexpected, I said inconsistent. Biden's debate's level of function and a significantly higher level of function were both consistent with...
Shaked Koplewitz
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,212,014,833
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ns2ouely5rg
0.504286
4,294.433372
YES
null
6ss16yq5cj7
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "that's how you know it's truly over ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew G
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,212,227,989
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ttixjw9knek
0.51559
50,217.712992
YES
null
dy101uacfg8
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The market seems to be reassured today (shekel up, TLV stock market up)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Shaked Koplewitz
0I5Ud3F6iS0QbC5DNEnl
public
contract
1,720,212,384,616
will-the-israel-invade-lebanon-by-t
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will the Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
jlo2rjfryj
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oops, forgot to resolve. Broke it with this: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Conflux
DS4qJa4UHuLHnfmu9FO4
public
contract
1,720,212,464,860
will-i-break-my-blog-post-length-re-3650c35248c7
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Will I break my blog post length record in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
cinc81lowkt
false
Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am happy to accept this report of the new Labour member for Cambridgeshire North West aged 22 as the new Son of the House ", "type": "text"...
Harry Hayfield
VflGLZHMpRhZzesdVPdN
public
contract
1,720,212,489,857
which-party-will-have-the-son-or-da
HarryHayfield
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c
Which party will have the Son or Daughter of the House elected?
null
null
953.677827
YES
b1e2caa04945
6zr25red4ru
false
GO88WPwwjsSrRGiqo1Zv8nF9z3i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Leaked DNC internal memo ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
ilo Lisipo
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,720,212,502,457
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
iloLisipo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1WFSwio-6QvIkkrsRUeeiFx4jDCKArGkDJ2JGUO5NiSHBTzY=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
null
null
244.866447
YES
191da45534e5
eza7r9oowx6
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Now Likely R (81%) in the DDHQ forecast ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Semiotic Rivalry
5JyzBvet827GF7Hu9WRr
public
contract
1,720,212,863,470
will-jon-tester-be-reelected
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will Jon Tester be reëlected?
null
0.319372
103,449.816889
NO
null
05iyoyc8ayzr
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
lukres
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,212,878,039
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ttixjw9knek
0.514651
2,361.197464
NO
null
zdon4q9o4l
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No guys, seriously, nothing ever happens.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
0I5Ud3F6iS0QbC5DNEnl
public
contract
1,720,212,943,501
will-the-israel-invade-lebanon-by-t
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will the Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?
dy101uacfg8
0.551772
7,704.312843
NO
null
tmd325xt8z9
false
GO88WPwwjsSrRGiqo1Zv8nF9z3i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
ilo Lisipo
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,720,213,002,349
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
iloLisipo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1WFSwio-6QvIkkrsRUeeiFx4jDCKArGkDJ2JGUO5NiSHBTzY=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
384.175441
NO
14lniwcqm1
vd5gftdw4d
false
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Dilated to 3cm at last measurement (9am)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Austin
suqx2ukd3n
public
contract
1,720,213,045,595
on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born-eslgkpbzzu
Austin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
On what day will our baby be born?
j58b5b22if
null
9,212.943444
NO
3hteuewuam
x3xx804mcya
false
cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"It’s impressive that this 10 man Portugal team are going toe to toe with France\" ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
lukres
zai1ck9fg6
public
contract
1,720,213,225,570
will-portugal-beat-france-euro-2024
lukres
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2
Will Portugal beat France? | Euro 2024
null
null
null
null
null
nkvdef3ci6h
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No, this is far beyond spinning things.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Steve Sokolowski
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,213,752,840
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ns2ouely5rg
0.470357
0
NO
null
gjvk1yntdt7
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The first gamestate will be posted within couple hours", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
Kongo Landwalker
s805uq91yk
public
contract
1,720,213,916,503
fog-of-war-chess-simulation-will-yo
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Fog of War, Chess simulation: Will you know the outcome in limited info situation?
null
null
null
null
null
94ppbveg7g4
false
n5iFIJziFHYty5qrcxgyb0D3Zok2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bill
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,214,181,729
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Bill
https://firebasestorage.…dce-3604a9ef0db8
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ttixjw9knek
0.45
50,224.725545
NO
null
kg8lupbd4yf
false
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don’t know about “leaked internal memo”. Maybe “intentionally published by aspirant journalist”.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Magnus
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,720,214,281,069
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
thepurplebull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
6zr25red4ru
null
327.71653
NO
f03a6835c810
7u154i55bpu
false
j4HC6TgsW4UUvIYi3re1XbsZX8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "May 2024 and June 2024 have already resolved no, right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
Knuffa
hDQfIEYrWOLnNbDsQINE
public
contract
1,720,214,477,184
when-will-lantern-fulfill-its-first
Knuffa
https://firebasestorage.…167-73b05fea9219
When will Lantern fulfill its first pre-order and ship BSC3-L1 to a customer?
null
null
75.51949
NO
b8b4ac77373d
zk3xagy481
false
DfJm6cMNVVhsbJL5FKcSG9z4Nrv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And we have a yes here :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ciuccio
wkqI1829ubCDwgL7lA0P
public
contract
1,720,214,674,975
will-bidens-fivethirtyeight-approva-68ghudpas4
Ciuccio
https://firebasestorage.…8f2-d58b540ae824
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 37% before the Election? 🇺🇸🗳️🗽
null
0.938806
1,780.224506
YES
null
oxbo60qp3es
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This seems naively extreme on both sides. Politicians spin. If you don't factor this in your worldview, you will consistently be disappointed and surpr...
Shaked Koplewitz
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,214,680,210
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ns2ouely5rg
0.460082
4,294.433372
YES
null
pwoze55wynf
false
Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do jokes count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew Smith
sp38okpdic
public
contract
1,720,214,766,067
will-a-us-president-order-the-assas
asmith
https://firebasestorage.…a0f-d901653a5912
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
null
null
null
null
null
5q7af2ehrc9
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
JRP
vclk0o7spd
public
contract
1,720,214,788,571
at-what-intensity-will-hurricane-be
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
At what intensity will Hurricane Beryl first make landfall in Mexico?
dfd4is94vf8
null
2,148.753931
YES
kv0f1jlawt
2f2e43ou5x8
false
xvisOWzjFbhMhSDK9yw4oYkrd9p2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No one scored. Cancel time ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", ...
Numnumduck
62gz1m5wqw
public
contract
1,720,215,102,591
when-will-the-first-goal-in-france
Numnumduck
https://firebasestorage.…e4f-28ba8c9cf969
When will the first goal in France vs Portugal match be scored?
null
null
null
null
null
ymzv747iowg
false
HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This can resolve now - Keir Starmer is PM", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nico
RNT18SAGTuyQ0wu2HZpN
public
contract
1,720,215,185,804
who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-e26ce5da6dcd
Nico
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWHVZIBXBUWUPADNCveJtz7QAw7r6Bf2zS_4gf=s96-c
Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak?
null
null
3,131.571086
YES
cbdafb635b5b
433suuhp3bs
false
aE5DNen5abQazD0RlpGCtTUws2k2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If there is nothing to cover up, will this resolve NO or N/A?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
Andrew Brown
pg3aayijlv
public
contract
1,720,215,433,081
will-kamala-harris-be-formally-impl
AndrewBrown
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJeN_apmwR7XocElja1WS8Y9d_4jY6bRKmt-bVdD_cr6FE=s96-c
Will Kamala Harris be implicated in the coverup, misleading ppl about biden's mental decline in 2024?
null
0.391375
81.179218
NO
null
hhjhcgzotbv
false
iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The worst isn't over yet ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
PoliticalEconomyPK
v5unqilzf4
public
contract
1,720,215,487,267
will-bitcoin-go-below-52k-in-july-2
PoliticalEconomyPK
https://firebasestorage.…cf2-726a1e47e9d1
Will Bitcoin go below $52K in July 2024?
null
0.652376
315.766515
YES
null
s6tfmzrosz
false
FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can you give an example situation here?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
inaimathi
sp38okpdic
public
contract
1,720,215,495,857
will-a-us-president-order-the-assas
inaimathi
https://firebasestorage.…f1b-6b8056fdb600
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
pwoze55wynf
null
79.222229
NO
stm8o8ag42
jclwzwlnce
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Move 1.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Kongo Landwalker
s805uq91yk
public
contract
1,720,215,737,244
fog-of-war-chess-simulation-will-yo
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Fog of War, Chess simulation: Will you know the outcome in limited info situation?
null
null
null
null
null
mh2lyrxadm
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"By Monday\"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "t...
Niko
wylmmdwmkw
public
contract
1,720,215,898,061
will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
null
0.78901
2,374.698364
YES
null
z5dpttq46u9
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not to toot my horn but see earlier comments on the Kamala letter.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "...
Niko
wylmmdwmkw
public
contract
1,720,216,049,610
will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
mh2lyrxadm
0.78901
2,374.698364
YES
null
cxgk11exb39
false
kkYhA0swWHZpOLalCdzpDQzu7572
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Ben Nelson
QeE1MTQWCHnR68dDFMWu
public
contract
1,720,216,194,699
will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-a-goal
nelsonbj
https://firebasestorage.…929-136f7f29ede7
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the EURO 2024?
null
0.957408
1,654.851454
NO
null
93lp6jjm44n
false
GO88WPwwjsSrRGiqo1Zv8nF9z3i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm a big fan of mongering. I monger. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ilo Lisipo
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,720,216,247,428
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
iloLisipo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1WFSwio-6QvIkkrsRUeeiFx4jDCKArGkDJ2JGUO5NiSHBTzY=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
6zr25red4ru
null
244.866447
YES
191da45534e5
ewq62zefr9o
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As I said above, this isn't \"spin.\" The \"spin room\" at a debate is where people talk away minor gaffes and words that were used incorrectly.", ...
Steve Sokolowski
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,216,251,876
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
ns2ouely5rg
0.528048
0
NO
null
9gpf5wkji4k
false
aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Paid my penalty for rushing to put in a quick bet at game’s end… accidentally took the wrong side. I’ll chalk it up as a tax on opportunistic fast bets...
Chris Snyder
vhgyhbxhu4
public
contract
1,720,216,392,101
will-france-beat-portugal-23b31e3cxu
ChrisSnyder
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpylDvsoUKS3P2P4mU5BumdLv0Gxj2f5SpmWV_Y-3RSzyv=s96-c
Will France Beat Portugal
null
0.99
2,767.822198
NO
null
qnjutqklvri
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Finely balanced, 29.9% with one seat left to declare. Lib Dems rumoured to have it in the bag but with the SNP likely to come second there's a major ch...
alh
m0bUEeM8ZJj0UbSHEyHh
public
contract
1,720,216,411,892
will-the-snp-win-more-than-30-of-th
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
Will the SNP win more than 30% of the Scottish vote in the next general election
null
0.682709
172.467356
NO
null
602mumh4o9s
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This ignores spoiled/rejected ballots BTW, so ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "8eAZZGxP7hfTL7B0...
alh
m0bUEeM8ZJj0UbSHEyHh
public
contract
1,720,216,527,063
will-the-snp-win-more-than-30-of-th
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
Will the SNP win more than 30% of the Scottish vote in the next general election
qnjutqklvri
0.682709
172.467356
NO
null
bigepe11hnq
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We have had some discussion and perhaps I could submit a move, if it is necessary but would prefer to wait until I hear from Much again. Have sent a co...
Christopher Randles
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,720,216,578,489
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
gk6wnn92ute
0.633096
128.792262
YES
null
y3z7n7ddwil
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The countries with the largest militaries are the largest countries, period. The US is nowhere close to having the highest spending as a share of GDP, ...
Muga Sofer
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,216,670,316
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
s1j219ilcef
0.530198
4,120.893614
NO
null
smqarriat8k
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "if you not change it to a player in the next 24 hours i will do it for you", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Base
hCFvbgtN5ydJubZfYcFQ
public
contract
1,720,216,716,990
who-will-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-e
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
Who will be the top goalscorer at EURO 2024?
3znte7clac8
null
1,287.928558
NO
fb87ce060d3f
7yus5c2um75
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
alh
23cD2GqmXnN9kJ86CVjt
public
contract
1,720,216,812,253
uk-general-election-which-party-wil-39e89f826b61
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
UK General Election: Which party will win in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire?
null
null
180.906626
YES
649945859473
1uexrbsuudk
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, ...
Base
h7hq7i0giu
public
contract
1,720,216,896,287
which-segment-comes-first-twice-in
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
Which segment comes first twice in a row?
null
null
4,036.703562
YES
11uby646mu
gekmxd9ph2v
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Probably best not to add more definitions after people have already voted.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Joshua
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,720,216,901,851
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
tmd325xt8z9
null
223.057715
YES
b40e006add81
awnl5gsch4b
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
h7hq7i0giu
public
contract
1,720,216,902,925
which-segment-comes-first-twice-in
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Which segment comes first twice in a row?
null
null
null
null
null
3tugcuhercz
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
h7hq7i0giu
public
contract
1,720,216,953,125
which-segment-comes-first-twice-in
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Which segment comes first twice in a row?
null
null
null
null
null
zjlo0ov0q7l
false
srqK0MA5FBYrXLBAYrh41JxIvJA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Abhi
grpFeFtlD2UhWy0RLwEc
public
contract
1,720,217,218,248
will-chat-gpt-5-release-before-the-95255a27c87d
Skyguy
https://firebasestorage.…bb3-e246d3dddb97
Will Chat GPT 5 release before the end of National Girlfriend Day? (August 1st)
null
0.067554
4,970.476528
NO
null
upv423bhdmh
false
srqK0MA5FBYrXLBAYrh41JxIvJA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should be even lower but I’ve already spent about half my remaining mana lowering the percent", "type": "text" } ], "type...
Abhi
grpFeFtlD2UhWy0RLwEc
public
contract
1,720,217,259,945
will-chat-gpt-5-release-before-the-95255a27c87d
Skyguy
https://firebasestorage.…bb3-e246d3dddb97
Will Chat GPT 5 release before the end of National Girlfriend Day? (August 1st)
zjlo0ov0q7l
0.067554
4,970.476528
NO
null
0a75k2zj9i86
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For the next PM after Starmer:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content...
Ponti Min
vs8b9Si7CE6ooPMntRq2
public
contract
1,720,217,438,292
who-will-be-the-next-uk-prime-minis-b0a0c56bfb12
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Who will be the next UK Prime Minister?
null
null
null
null
null
ooxlg8ibfhk
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i remain confident that gpt-5 will be released this year; less confident than before (90%) but still confident (60%).", "type": "text" ...
Campbell Hutcheson
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,720,217,579,270
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
null
0.446247
16,449.304876
YES
null
07j5ezklmz27
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Keenen W
g4knaf1vl4
public
contract
1,720,217,611,770
which-youtube-channels-will-release-oaiu6u16tr
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
t7dsum0brud
null
1.920483
YES
fljp4j069h
km6d64595qn
false
5ZLMEpuF15YyU9c1RTz7MorzAl22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Travis
hhbzqmigrr
public
contract
1,720,217,769,924
will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator
travis
https://firebasestorage.…802-cff93fb42209
Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)
null
0.74989
797.858448
YES
null
qo5m5etw6se
false
NuHwhn6zEFaGrZakbtiqPqMB0cJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This resolves no.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
sbares
Nkt7s08PJV7N4GRMOLRP
public
contract
1,720,217,987,462
will-rishi-sunak-hold-the-uk-prime-ae0807c4c6c1
sbares
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzkvyIz-LOJPQwSdbXHkM-F-In2wj3gxsEipRrEw=s96-c
Will Rishi Sunak hold the UK Prime Minister's office for at least 3 full years?
null
0.01
2,183.238745
NO
null
wg4wkzjqyws
false
5ZLMEpuF15YyU9c1RTz7MorzAl22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "label": "JemimaBowman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Travis
yvr5wrcybp
public
contract
1,720,218,153,767
who-will-win-the-british-grand-prix
travis
https://firebasestorage.…802-cff93fb42209
Who will win the British Grand Prix
null
null
499.718705
YES
uprixu9xb6
wf7wc8fpth
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See also ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractI...
Fion
pxy46q0h3p
public
contract
1,720,218,223,586
who-will-be-the-next-uk-prime-minis-dv96d1v1qr
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer?
null
null
414.454185
YES
tmkklin9hr
ykptw8q9dvr
false
cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Elf
wkqI1829ubCDwgL7lA0P
public
contract
1,720,218,744,569
will-bidens-fivethirtyeight-approva-68ghudpas4
elf
https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 37% before the Election? 🇺🇸🗳️🗽
null
0.989913
6,143.829704
YES
null
w2x8tyocows
false
ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He didn't die last winter", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jimmy Carter Death Markets
PjsmhJGvD2Feiszm4EEt
public
contract
1,720,218,818,007
which-season-will-jimmy-carter-die
JCDM
https://firebasestorage.…31d-01d8ae732bec
Which season will Jimmy Carter Die in during 2024?
lpdgn1e8cj
null
null
null
null
6jg093ms3pc
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"“Kamala letter” that was leaked / published earlier is quite interesting. Well written. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": ...
Niko
w4l6r8bqau
public
contract
1,720,218,955,785
will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
null
0.425245
27,255.604593
YES
null
hz1xrdzdsp6
false
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would count that as dropping out ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DismalScientist
2egu6xdxz2
public
contract
1,720,218,987,067
what-day-will-biden-drop-out
DismalScientist
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
What day will Biden drop out?
8qcyzuyiej2
null
null
null
null
6fhpiswi0bm
false
NQDRGlp1FOdx2jMmzOuiVLcvWwF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Did anyone just see the interview teaser? Did NOT look good", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
James Petterson
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,219,032,345
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
JamesPetterson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbZkh1hnlH7zRYFgHVu7pFh_HAJOcAAX2_uxDXoy5sx3PoSA=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
null
null
null
null
sypglp5a4oe
false
7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This can resolve yes ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Burke
tsehgn28xf
public
contract
1,720,219,204,080
will-france-beat-portugal
KevinBurke
https://firebasestorage.…943-2649cecf3291
Will France Beat Portugal
null
0.99
465.880481
YES
null
qxx9pvdcrf
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "looked pretty similar to the debate. He's just totally different with a teleprompter it seems", "type": "text" } ], "type...
Semiotic Rivalry
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,219,818,291
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.480048
1,006,133.834051
NO
null
1g6gutfcb2ih
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It works. See ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13", "labe...
nikki
hhbzqmigrr
public
contract
1,720,220,168,375
will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)
km6d64595qn
0.946608
2,819.093442
YES
null
4n1dyp7x5rr
false
ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Where can you watch it?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Will Howard
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,220,470,853
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
WilliamHoward
https://firebasestorage.…b8c-a844826f2fe1
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.466109
12.579347
YES
null
bzpwu8m2oog
false
hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'll test later today to confirm, and resolve yes if it succeeds. Would be nice to have a way to do this in the UI, but thanks for bringing this to my ...
Ari Zerner
hhbzqmigrr
public
contract
1,720,220,503,562
will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator
AriZerner
https://firebasestorage.…0a6-a9d433b24f4c
Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at probabilities other than 50%? (by July 2025)
km6d64595qn
null
null
null
null
1rccymtme08
false
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4cm at 2:30pm", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Austin
suqx2ukd3n
public
contract
1,720,220,558,128
on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born-eslgkpbzzu
Austin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
On what day will our baby be born?
j58b5b22if
null
9,212.943444
NO
3hteuewuam
m47yrttjpfj
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "X, the everything app", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Blomfilter
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,220,583,173
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.466109
3,342.643807
NO
null
bxda9kw66lq
false
PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Whether he stays or drops it's joever.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan. W.
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,720,220,637,074
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
DanW
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
6fhpiswi0bm
0.466109
7,361.054576
NO
null
43iham138h4
false
klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Scott Owens
9m729wwqlm
public
contract
1,720,220,718,507
will-hurricane-beryl-make-landfall
ScottOwens
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c
Will Hurricane Beryl make landfall in Houston or the Greater Houston area?
null
null
null
null
null
1smpukddf6v
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Fxsi2an7IoMsNLyq1ODqsXZIMqC3", "label": "benmanns", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Madge
fD7rBvdUD5b9m2rQdOr2
public
contract
1,720,220,736,391
what-will-be-true-of-the-cake-that
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
What will be true of the cake that manifold makes? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
2,111.690683
YES
m68eo8z6lf
zjdjmh3qcy
false
klTRt4TCWhME5l5xmTBEMV30azM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Scott Owens
dltrnzcuo8
public
contract
1,720,220,789,092
conditional-on-hurricane-beryl-maki
ScottOwens
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgffBcgGMCdsWkiQam-f88cvnxvy8nu9Moyl4xsrQ=s96-c
Conditional on Hurricane Beryl making landfall in the United States what intensity will it be at?
null
null
null
null
null
viupvrtl14
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "probably wanna close it now since the interview segment leaked... can pepper this market with dozens of phrases now", "type": "text" ...
Blomfilter
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,220,841,711
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
null
null
147.121674
YES
zcnm72bnqy
ub35h75ry68
false
n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hs0u6zt60mcVurx8LYfVQd7oCrQ2", "label": "ChifungChoi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Daniel Tilkin
jxxjNUBYse4ZVPlA2L7z
public
contract
1,720,220,885,376
will-the-opposition-in-the-uk-parli
DanielTilkin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaD_F3MPbut-et9lJUiLj_dMo5cRkQ70utJs_egAQ=s96-c
Will the opposition in the UK parliament be a party other than the Conservative Party after the next election?
null
0.01
9,192.444489
NO
null
xhuy3w1ivoe
false
tB9W8Nd8idcr2bVB91tdsMJpIql1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "real", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
pluffASMR
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,221,064,700
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
pluffASMR
https://firebasestorage.…90a-3e562adfc74c
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
viupvrtl14
null
1,022.661759
YES
6fbbngqjv9
1yr9td90bt1
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sure, closed! Got a leak to the segment that's out? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs"...
Ziddletwix
jro2bq9wla
public
contract
1,720,221,086,539
which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview?
viupvrtl14
null
1,177.521008
NO
x5o0nojo76