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94zbs0t08e
false
HWKtbHfQPBSXvw8LICx3atroQGr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zw3nijchk18", "label": "MADGAMBLER6969", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
MADGAMBLER6969
4VZ4JdGvtk2JxQI2v7dN
public
contract
1,716,631,760,144
if-i-write-an-encyclopedia-of-bad-a
MADGAMBLER6969
https://firebasestorage.…cfc-fa3f31fbb877
If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?
IlJmrd95uniUPeo5Mt7y
null
null
null
null
b04g3r2xpko
false
T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is he still running? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Wabi Sabi
HpOI58oU5q56QkeSzCeo
public
contract
1,716,632,520,054
what-will-kanyes-2024-campaign-slog
TheWabiSabi
https://firebasestorage.…2ec-cedfd2c3f9b5
What will Kanye's 2024 campaign slogan be??
null
null
null
null
null
sltgpbgztrh
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
stefanie
rgmSDQVXpfgIWGingOri
public
contract
1,716,632,859,947
will-this-tweet-hold-up-i-predict-t
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.
null
null
null
null
null
c3x247kk674
false
MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ne8ge7me98f", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
CodeandSolder
3VPp2FA50Sry8KU33roZ
public
contract
1,716,633,021,842
which-of-these-would-you-want-back
CodeandSolder
https://firebasestorage.…113-e028e43cc678
Which of these would you want back the most?
cyicczp42nc
null
null
null
null
b4y7sl7q9sj
false
T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Fixed on my end", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Wabi Sabi
yXryS9eo9aP5Is4ZxGYN
public
contract
1,716,633,120,887
will-my-streak-show-0-this-week
TheWabiSabi
https://firebasestorage.…2ec-cedfd2c3f9b5
Will my streak show 0 this week?
null
0.072572
14.43057
NO
null
8jd589sqcbh
false
O5x8Hp3UddN7xgXFH4CSkcJ1RrA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Get more education regarding AI only on ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Ashbeel Zafar
r5Ohmd1NE2siDky4rUS7
public
contract
1,716,635,778,542
will-it-be-common-for-nonprogrammer
AshbeelZafar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocInbMqz2tU3kcPJZohusjwn-DzvB9xaKM84r02UjrUzpzsoF9hD=s96-c
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
null
null
null
null
null
aw0yb3aqcdo
false
lQNtuosKRXcTAuiUv324XX5e0zs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I've made a first pass at this here: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "ma...
Austin Platt
VdgOfFrbMsAl0TSbu1Yd
public
contract
1,716,636,100,144
will-somebody-create-a-manifold-uk
AustinPlatt
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6uBUbeQwTXx7_TucB1d9jl66tPnKFcDYI2lHbe=s96-c
Will somebody create a Manifold UK General Election Projection?
null
50
2,435.569272
YES
null
xh56ppuqls
false
P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "axbw88lvacu", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Brad
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,637,033,885
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
summer_of_bliss
https://firebasestorage.…2a4-c539f0d4fb50
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
noj81djhcj
null
1,617.137702
YES
cae724d28376
4vxilr81g2
false
P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Brad
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,637,639,425
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
summer_of_bliss
https://firebasestorage.…2a4-c539f0d4fb50
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
noj81djhcj
null
1,617.137702
YES
cae724d28376
56yhe945zhr
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I was able to go up 100 elo a week by playing an hour a day. How much time do you intend to put towards this in the short term?", "type": "te...
Elliot Davies
ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7
public
contract
1,716,638,657,447
will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
e85jn7mq0b7
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Pfizer, Paypal, JPMorgan Chase, Procter and gamble, Unilever, Spotify, Snowflake, Palantir, Coinbase, Beyond meat, Impossible foods, Bonston Dynamics, ...
Niel S
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,716,640,034,800
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
null
null
557.41119
NO
fceb65ceb73b
uldp1e510d
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nb9smw57fd", "label": "mariopasquato", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
CyfralCoot
tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv
public
contract
1,716,640,491,986
what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
What percentage of dark matter is baryonic?
nb9smw57fd
null
null
null
null
nacjoks0t5
false
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
MP
MOuez08kfRxHdvtpjvJn
public
contract
1,716,641,095,940
conditional-on-a-twofront-lebanonsy
MP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
Conditional on a two-front (Lebanon/Syria) war will a NATO country join the war in the side of Israel by Mar/2024?
null
null
null
null
null
wcsk5jssm17
false
VutNSM1pulf0iLjFlNUtgVLKUzr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "label": "SirCryptomind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
mjh
gKbwY9836fqsPWsup40q
public
contract
1,716,641,360,630
premier-league-golden-boot-award-wi
meh
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmeh%2F-FCJ_xuzNs.59?alt=media&token=6f5d7b9a-38c0-4956-b7fc-6f1795ead647
Premier League Golden Boot Award winner 23/24 season?
null
null
281.811492
NO
a38639b0457a
5eat72p6xl9
false
pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uldp1e510d", "label": "CyfralCoot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
mario pasquato
tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv
public
contract
1,716,643,058,686
what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b
mariopasquato
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c
What percentage of dark matter is baryonic?
nb9smw57fd
0.293698
33.081925
NO
null
wwot8zi4v1j
false
vIIK2d9eLqbLM21xrvkMe1UAX3G3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8oabgckaawr", "label": "NivlacM", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gramophone
OvQmtMzW6c7aqYTg8zr4
public
contract
1,716,643,150,132
will-kanye-release-an-ai-album
gramophone
https://firebasestorage.…400-b1c6c97ab243
Will Kanye release an AI album?
v1neb1yq5em
0.878004
307.368018
YES
null
gbbkxha9fl4
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w653ed8ufzd", "label": "NielS", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Haws
iizzrO02mEnq6OQgIT52
public
contract
1,716,643,764,304
friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-f1dc42b31572
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
w653ed8ufzd
null
331.932048
NO
13e0af1565d0
odnp1z599qj
false
TWTidsyddMdMSC3pHoJGiTF5IKv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1% is really low ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ed
8GBJppKZi0gwGX2ukPAP
public
contract
1,716,643,783,756
will-uks-real-gdp-growth-for-year-2
3d
https://firebasestorage.…588-b9e2bc905854
Will UK's real GDP growth for year 2025 exceed 1% under Labor party?
null
50
233.817858
YES
null
37lgwfvmghm
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Important poll:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Plasma Ballin'
pcpHK6maQlVoZmBrKTNl
public
contract
1,716,644,757,893
which-political-party-does-manifold-3dfa4d529638
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Which political party does Manifold think Joe Biden would run as?
null
null
12.390482
YES
89a301f173ca
2w4f4a2n56s
false
PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think the constituency is called “South West Norfolk”?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Lisa Marsh
5Uc9BHkiefelvBhVzqFC
public
contract
1,716,644,779,907
uk-general-election-which-party-wil-4e1d22246da5
lisamarsh
https://firebasestorage.…baf-262c369f8514
UK General Election: Which party will win Norfolk South West?
null
null
117.545802
YES
f065baf05ee2
09gq47d24gof
false
PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Lisa Marsh
pS6C3sfRxXkXQ4TF0fLl
public
contract
1,716,645,152,039
which-seats-will-the-green-party-of
lisamarsh
https://firebasestorage.…baf-262c369f8514
Which seats will the Green Party of England and Wales win at the next UK general election?
null
null
428.536978
NO
47e73da01f79
f4yx60vwyi5
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "56yhe945zhr", "label": "ElliotDavies", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Andri
ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7
public
contract
1,716,645,296,126
will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024?
56yhe945zhr
null
null
null
null
vcn6obhwab
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b4y7sl7q9sj", "label": "TheWabiSabi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
robm
yXryS9eo9aP5Is4ZxGYN
public
contract
1,716,646,366,687
will-my-streak-show-0-this-week
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
Will my streak show 0 this week?
b4y7sl7q9sj
null
null
null
null
hmz1wzaykmo
false
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To the admins: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23", "lab...
Jonathan Mannhart
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
public
contract
1,716,646,525,692
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
JonathanMannhart
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
null
0.031966
3,092.267673
NO
null
wbo7g0grtz
false
4I6gAV0ghQe7xyhrWItpCejXtKR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1qaha21ya2w", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
redacted_peasant
55LoxTJX5PPIMznJSUVA
public
contract
1,716,647,191,496
if-manifold-ceases-to-allow-mana-wi
redacted
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpmpRxJwSQmLYswlDnF_vcdupOzbINNjm1FL3ir9dX=s96-c
If Manifold ceases to allow mana withdrawals, will mana experience significant inflation within the next year?
bsh920x7zl4
0.867439
37.443184
YES
null
nuk1ywfl1v
false
Zgn442YHdxd2p6i3rSQ1ySUYkwg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Viva Garnacho!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Courier Six
2UaQmxGarSdFdcvhVzHS
public
contract
1,716,647,590,662
will-manchester-united-with-the-202
CourierSix
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3xSJrXwsTL80MvRByPYBPB5hQCnDnv8GJ06iku1A=s96-c
Will Manchester United win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final?
null
0.303669
565.973579
YES
null
o5iw117ybm
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Paper Boy
8086SGL1J3FXrHNxalkk
public
contract
1,716,648,101,257
will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-more-t-d0c180c16e22
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
null
null
null
null
null
jnk309huxob
false
Zgn442YHdxd2p6i3rSQ1ySUYkwg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Courier Six
2UaQmxGarSdFdcvhVzHS
public
contract
1,716,648,140,819
will-manchester-united-with-the-202
CourierSix
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3xSJrXwsTL80MvRByPYBPB5hQCnDnv8GJ06iku1A=s96-c
Will Manchester United win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final?
null
0.303669
717.800981
YES
null
cbwt15l7op4
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7pom4b6noaw", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
LJzMjzxI3hgPe4tAwGJP
public
contract
1,716,648,214,410
which-political-party-would-you-vot
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which political party would you vote for?
7pom4b6noaw
null
null
null
null
u36i69srim9
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5xqjp1938v6", "label": "thepurplebull", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ponti Min
Iv8fcNBVqPpWtYYkOB1A
public
contract
1,716,648,260,344
how-many-seats-will-the-labour-part-83e146bac5d4
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win?
xqrz8sggbad
null
null
null
null
a190lo3uw0a
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What i have found for context", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content"...
Kongo Landwalker
B9lqA2yxAZJ0ulsAt1zK
public
contract
1,716,648,355,706
did-stephen-wolfram-solve-the-secon
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Did Stephen Wolfram solve the second law of thermodynamics?
null
null
null
null
null
wpkcre5po2l
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zu39q74trhe", "label": "JoshuaWilkes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Semiotic Rivalry
46rGjy1cC2hhsQUbtX5Y
public
contract
1,716,648,509,697
will-more-than-50-chinese-aircraft
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft operate around Taiwan in a single day in 2024?
zu39q74trhe
0.600291
5,940.813949
YES
null
q3v0yb7zltm
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does the current state of manifold count as a real-money market to you? Or would it only count if arbitrary users can make their market a prize point m...
Josh
CEBetY9dDI64uhz6RxKa
public
contract
1,716,648,601,344
will-any-realmoney-prediction-marke
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Will any real-money prediction market let anyone create a market on anything before the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3wgh2559xp3
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8v4xepsocfd", "label": "wabz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
IY
5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ
public
contract
1,716,648,647,347
will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season?
8v4xepsocfd
0.193135
1,456.172837
NO
null
520vz3pehuf
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "74a7kwzqnll", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
EBurk
hsVhlV2SOCRPAJwoXzzG
public
contract
1,716,648,973,906
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-ec37977c76d6
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 27th, 2024?
3fek1gmcn4i
null
131.163683
NO
6c2b79a834cc
u19gasgl0m
false
dp5qoJAOmqgfNGxbRm00x8b9bU03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pwk0kdc1o3", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mactuary
MiYKcO3SMlpUqgbRh9TK
public
contract
1,716,649,170,444
will-the-nudes-in-bio-bots-be-gone
Mactuary
https://firebasestorage.…977-b24dde9fa772
Will the "░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░" bots be gone from twitter before the end of 2024?
cij403erwoi
0.128122
237.908484
YES
null
6mik7ez4u3m
false
Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This seems like a clear NO. The original resolution criteria leave unspecified what happens, if they now publish a paper done by the team before it was...
dp
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
public
contract
1,716,649,182,463
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
dp
https://firebasestorage.…2ab-c6314de603e5
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
null
0.031966
413.830848
NO
null
bcpo0g83swq
false
RDBzIwTrRldn1aWEBTWfDyyIMH93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am getting the impression this question is badly designed. Eg when I picked “other” there were few vp candidates listed. Now there are many, so “oth...
TW
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,716,649,306,112
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
Prince
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIkMTlutKppn9r11h8S6rbz0E0_C5G0mq-uoQFN49nS=s96-c
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
null
null
476.117413
YES
bd50c40f474c
pib80rw27f
false
petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bcpo0g83swq", "label": "Prince", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Dylan Slagh
vKZUxybbx1OnaklIO5CN
public
contract
1,716,650,120,269
who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445
DylanSlagh
https://firebasestorage.…65f-b7f20ae0bdd7
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
bcpo0g83swq
null
126.582278
NO
491b28d54216
hztn3tv5p
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a190lo3uw0a", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Kongo Landwalker
B9lqA2yxAZJ0ulsAt1zK
public
contract
1,716,650,478,865
did-stephen-wolfram-solve-the-secon
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Did Stephen Wolfram solve the second law of thermodynamics?
a190lo3uw0a
null
null
null
null
wd0tupnvinj
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "At these odds, definitely worth a punt", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
IeWzX7zu7EQVNPGVDgwH
public
contract
1,716,650,498,293
who-will-be-first-minister-of-scotl
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Who will be First Minister of Scotland on July 1st 2026?
null
null
729.647695
YES
9c368f3101ea
qq52v1nx6r
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bump as there's no option where the votes are clear enough for me to resolve", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Mich
bF6ty16wyr4dKWVshhAu
public
contract
1,716,651,043,766
underrated-or-overrated-which-perso
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Underrated or overrated ? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are overrated this week ?
null
null
27.095228
YES
5631ee1cdd69
9rkz84t5fuu
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bump for input", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mich
Dp8jPPbgVQ3u8sVz30ok
public
contract
1,716,651,278,171
do-you-think-there-is-a-probability-9746caa036f8
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Do you think there is a probability of at least 20% that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
null
null
null
null
null
c07mb52axdm
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bump for input", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mich
n52VdwVu2bBLzyiaEMBZ
public
contract
1,716,651,309,210
do-you-think-there-is-a-probability-62efd8bf7ee0
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Do you think there is a probability of at least 30% that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
null
null
null
null
null
18vq6s3bbm7
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bump for input", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mich
RHEWYcWW37Vx18X3utga
public
contract
1,716,651,328,313
do-you-think-there-is-a-probability-81ad22776ea6
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Do you think there is a probability of at least 40% that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
null
null
null
null
null
1n5mveak414
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hiKAgumJpIeCY4qWcDZig6M5KKE3", "label": "TheOrigamiCrane", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
Kongo Landwalker
A8rpbH1mllPKXPrMDXm9
public
contract
1,716,651,520,810
what-will-the-next-alen-beckar-anim
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
What will the next "Alen Beckar" animation be about?
null
null
51.142595
YES
ec83c0d08005
tdh8za2bmlk
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "05-25-2024", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contract...
SirCryptomind
IIAq1dWF1hzB109FG37F
public
contract
1,716,651,949,841
any-gemini-llm-will-achieve-a-highe
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Any Gemini LLM will achieve a higher rating than all OpenAI's GPT-4 models on Chatbot Arena Leaderboard by Jan 1st 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
ol4qd507h7r
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If anyone would like a one-way ticket to the", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Joshua
OxoXgp2Ls49yj7diVOEL
public
contract
1,716,652,075,154
do-you-think-there-is-a-probability
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Do you think there is a probability of at least 1% that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
null
null
null
null
null
d897szt76kc
false
wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It’s like Trump has avoided the topic. In his endorsements, he lists many issues. The closest he came was “ensure election integrity”.", "typ...
Charlie Bauer
r9aO3A4bR4lOjR514pWt
public
contract
1,716,652,676,374
what-topics-will-elon-and-trump-pos
CharlieBauer
https://storage.googleap…Mt2zdsjlg8k1.png
What topics will Elon and Trump post about before June 1st?
null
null
376.657545
YES
734eb37f6c37
6y5942heizh
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Handshake bet, anyone? Loans going away makes this tough to lock mana up on for months/years, but we could bet on our opinions. ", "type": "t...
Joshua
Z5bqD6IUKvcmD0n5Ca4M
public
contract
1,716,652,697,964
do-you-think-there-is-a-probability-498eed449482
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Do you think there is a probability of at least 3% that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
null
null
null
null
null
mrj3qm559p8
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8v4xepsocfd", "label": "wabz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Gaz Downright
5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ
public
contract
1,716,652,752,784
will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season?
8v4xepsocfd
0.193135
-0
NO
null
gellgxtoh39
false
Zgn442YHdxd2p6i3rSQ1ySUYkwg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Courier Six
2UaQmxGarSdFdcvhVzHS
public
contract
1,716,652,971,576
will-manchester-united-with-the-202
CourierSix
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3xSJrXwsTL80MvRByPYBPB5hQCnDnv8GJ06iku1A=s96-c
Will Manchester United win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final?
null
0.303669
717.800981
YES
null
xt42u2vdvgr
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "SjXxAz2Y7BV0W9E0AHTJiVGJTIh2", "label": "wabz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Gaz Downright
5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ
public
contract
1,716,653,023,317
will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season?
8v4xepsocfd
0.193135
-0
NO
null
d4zotkue5o
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0lwg6fqkx9ub", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
Cx28q3zq5Lz2q9IBY8Qj
public
contract
1,716,653,064,579
dua-lipa-will-reach-the-first-posit
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Dua lipa will reach the first position of the hot 100 billboard with the release of the song ILLUSION?
7v6gi6kmyt9
0.024002
782.460883
NO
null
54zr65o8wh6
false
wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ferrari has a chance to seal this as a yes this weekend. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
Chris V
TXJwsCKs0ue1sjWYsEt2
public
contract
1,716,653,201,503
will-ferrari-win-2-races-before-max
voodoo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c
Will Ferrari win 2 races before Max Verstappen wins 8?
null
0.413873
0
NO
null
uc7qsc1g2zj
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would anyone like to bet YES on the markets about this? I have put down large NO limit orders:", "type": "text" }, { ...
Joshua
opcNRlz9IXdL6SOlbj5y
public
contract
1,716,653,214,843
will-manifold-think-that-its-at-lea
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Manifold think that it's at least p likely that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
null
null
null
null
null
agqjul526dc
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Joshua
4cnN0iBesPQ2OL9sKYkl
public
contract
1,716,653,592,006
did-the-boeing-whistleblower-die-of
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Did the Boeing whistleblower die of foul play? (media consensus)
null
0.020092
10,692.243497
NO
null
dhgif8qlzul
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Ernie
ubDaQEUHHSrt1oeW5yXQ
public
contract
1,716,653,873,211
-by-2026-will-any-fully-aigenerated
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?
null
0.385393
119.961612
YES
null
zomt9h2i84
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "by when?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
U8Ob3dz34z9cBAb3fEh7
public
contract
1,716,653,912,507
will-there-be-a-mainstream-pop-star
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Will there be a mainstream pop star that will be entirely AI generated like Rei Toei from William Gibson’s book Idoru?
null
null
null
null
null
yiqh6806c0d
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tgy8khnh6wr", "label": "BlueDragon", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Archibald Crone
i1H7Rw4DeAcGeCXiQ2By
public
contract
1,716,654,263,000
which-state-ballot-propositions-to
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
Which state ballot propositions to guarantee abortion rights will pass?
tgy8khnh6wr
null
null
null
null
7pxpwenup9c
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's happened only three times in the WNBA, and the record is 53 (at least as of last year): ", "type": "text" }, { ...
Timothy Johnson
dBd12ycgw5G1BOjoBJN8
public
contract
1,716,654,435,926
will-caitlin-clark-score-50-points
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Caitlin Clark score 50+ points in any game during her first WNBA season?
null
null
null
null
null
664ui3y57p
false
wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yiqh6806c0d", "label": "BlueDragon", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Charlie Bauer
i1H7Rw4DeAcGeCXiQ2By
public
contract
1,716,654,555,263
which-state-ballot-propositions-to
CharlieBauer
https://storage.googleap…Mt2zdsjlg8k1.png
Which state ballot propositions to guarantee abortion rights will pass?
tgy8khnh6wr
null
133.119667
YES
6ed6f4587b9b
sxaa3728wkh
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "at this point people are just inventing controversy right? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
stefanie
iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv
public
contract
1,716,654,698,657
how-will-this-controversial-polymar
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve?
null
50
331.411164
YES
null
nlnikghqq98
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nixe8oh04f", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Ben Shindel
1EThWNpPwqwzgRimLRhi
public
contract
1,716,654,937,404
acx-2024-who-will-win-the-2024-mexi
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? [ACX 2024]
nixe8oh04f
null
5,285.930488
YES
7c44c8f0fff1
d7za8c8hn47
false
POIWlbLM4aUD65YXxSWiMFzQPor1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "does drake sampling bbl drizzy count", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ashly
ZeMGDAgqUMukHmIwjJFk
public
contract
1,716,654,941,019
which-of-these-mainstream-artists-w
ashly_webb
https://firebasestorage.…6f9-6c5600923f12
Which of these mainstream artists (or bands) will credit an AI in a song release? (Kanye ft. Suno, or Drake ft. ChatGPT)
null
null
null
null
null
9k1egbjzqbh
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "664ui3y57p", "label": "CharlieBauer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Archibald Crone
i1H7Rw4DeAcGeCXiQ2By
public
contract
1,716,655,059,237
which-state-ballot-propositions-to
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
Which state ballot propositions to guarantee abortion rights will pass?
tgy8khnh6wr
null
null
null
null
8pbuxkhel1f
false
OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jhbtewdeyd", "label": "CyfralCoot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Caleb Biddulph
NzQfxorBJYO3LiKe4s63
public
contract
1,716,655,185,554
when-will-technology-accurately-sum
CDBiddulph
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c
When will technology accurately summarize our dreams by reading neural activity?
jhbtewdeyd
null
null
null
null
dwz4fdfe9wm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "looking like the beefs over </3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
wPBixftbsYTv5S7vQMYk
public
contract
1,716,655,362,229
will-kendrick-release-a-diss-track-46f012847229
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Kendrick release a diss track response to Drake's The Heart Part 6 within one month of it releasing?
null
null
null
null
null
jk203xi4oz9
false
RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As of this writing, propositions are proposed in 12 states, including Pennsylvania where the proposal is to limit public funding of abortion, but so fa...
Archibald Crone
i1H7Rw4DeAcGeCXiQ2By
public
contract
1,716,655,395,788
which-state-ballot-propositions-to
BlueDragon
https://firebasestorage.…2f3-d0594914d1a2
Which state ballot propositions to guarantee abortion rights will pass?
null
null
null
null
null
joomzkupykh
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "don't forget to push down the 5% prediction here too!", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": nul...
Blomfilter
8086SGL1J3FXrHNxalkk
public
contract
1,716,655,489,494
will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-more-t-d0c180c16e22
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
null
0.31191
1,155.745421
YES
null
0spnb2n8l3s
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cf3a7jm5ai", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jim
L3EWzmjuuhwdNKrdWQPJ
public
contract
1,716,655,613,284
who-will-win-the-2024-world-series
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Who will win the 2024 WSOP World Series of Poker Texas Holdem Main Event?
cf3a7jm5ai
null
96.521933
YES
1dd85026dfce
c2ovmdg5i78
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The jellyfish tree is endemic to only a single island in the Seychelles. Once thought extinct, some individuals were found growing outside their prime ...
Pat Scott🩴
X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB
public
contract
1,716,655,943,820
which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?
null
null
44.444444
NO
2f355c04f544
trkcbab5et
false
lQNtuosKRXcTAuiUv324XX5e0zs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u36i69srim9", "label": "PontiMin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Austin Platt
Iv8fcNBVqPpWtYYkOB1A
public
contract
1,716,655,971,556
how-many-seats-will-the-labour-part-83e146bac5d4
AustinPlatt
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6uBUbeQwTXx7_TucB1d9jl66tPnKFcDYI2lHbe=s96-c
UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win?
xqrz8sggbad
null
null
null
null
2va2cgrwssm
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r9qn3ix6ohd", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,656,104,450
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
0whhqi6lf5g
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
vllbd130ah
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6kqwb5leqx9", "label": "MaximLott", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Isaac King
d7TRl5aRU5jumgSc2g2L
public
contract
1,716,656,137,786
if-we-survive-general-artificial-in
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
kz5ycit1zms
null
431.831004
YES
b3d3b8388207
m38788t2vuk
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Quroe
yp03JOi33SIL0JAnZEqP
public
contract
1,716,656,149,524
which-youtube-channels-will-release-8f33bfdf1874
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
764.045625
YES
fb539e7a12a1
5ufogi2n79f
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q3v0yb7zltm", "label": "josh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Isaac King
CEBetY9dDI64uhz6RxKa
public
contract
1,716,656,250,253
will-any-realmoney-prediction-marke
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
Will any real-money prediction market let anyone create a market on anything before the end of 2024?
q3v0yb7zltm
null
null
null
null
ts2j7j2dhc
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "12sfqwwgpe9", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
SirCryptomind
p1FZJ2qsi1ZaZhADO7GT
public
contract
1,716,656,250,581
what-event-will-happen-first-spacex-6b87c2da82ce
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
What Event Will Happen First: SpaceX 100 Launches In 2024 OR Jimmy Carter Becomes A Centenarian
12sfqwwgpe9
null
null
null
null
3le7rk0od29
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "Pattenborough market!", "type": "text" ...
stefanie
X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB
public
contract
1,716,656,294,028
which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
74fdp41cqpo
false
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Criteria updated, market re-opened. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "mar...
Manifold Politics
EnIPKs1K04vlHWBLgbbn
public
contract
1,716,656,392,800
when-will-a-rafah-ground-invasion-b
ManifoldPolitics
https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621
When will a Rafah Ground Invasion be reported by the NYT? (Weekly)
null
null
438.879707
YES
1e5fdb20dc1a
qk25e1xyoq
false
SjXxAz2Y7BV0W9E0AHTJiVGJTIh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3wgh2559xp3", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
wabz
5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ
public
contract
1,716,656,404,805
will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e
wabz
https://firebasestorage.…a70-eb4ac0ad5b2e
Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season?
8v4xepsocfd
0.193135
0
NO
null
0h1tyunhpgtt
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm confused. If we discover that no dark matter is baryonic and it's all something else, shouldn't that obviously resolve this to 0%? What am I missin...
Isaac King
tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv
public
contract
1,716,656,431,377
what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
What percentage of dark matter is baryonic?
nb9smw57fd
0.293698
80.721966
NO
null
gp37yc7iy6v
false
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Criteria updated, market re-opened. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "mar...
Manifold Politics
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
public
contract
1,716,656,478,277
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
ManifoldPolitics
https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
null
null
111.687027
NO
246add140b36
cql3eid0uml
false
SjXxAz2Y7BV0W9E0AHTJiVGJTIh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xt42u2vdvgr", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
wabz
5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ
public
contract
1,716,656,496,078
will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e
wabz
https://firebasestorage.…a70-eb4ac0ad5b2e
Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season?
8v4xepsocfd
0.193135
0
NO
null
70wwzgjswdw
false
SjXxAz2Y7BV0W9E0AHTJiVGJTIh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xt42u2vdvgr", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
wabz
5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ
public
contract
1,716,656,525,279
will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e
wabz
https://firebasestorage.…a70-eb4ac0ad5b2e
Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season?
8v4xepsocfd
0.193135
0
NO
null
e7wmmjh5jf
false
jfaeGZZWDZaaTNyPhSmQr1LFt112
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vllbd130ah", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Maxim Lott
d7TRl5aRU5jumgSc2g2L
public
contract
1,716,656,573,334
if-we-survive-general-artificial-in
MaximLott
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMaximLott%2FlIRSc-_Jnz.42?alt=media&token=064fc512-2dab-4d14-96ae-42dc6f59dac3
If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
kz5ycit1zms
null
326.315275
YES
341b58d0c0cc
d8jgab9lhxi
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "DKEIWnUtpDgTXVKdi40YGWj6f7x1", "label": "creator", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ben Shindel
kPPLI1S16qnvDbkrGTuJ
public
contract
1,716,656,653,837
fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-7d367790d0b6
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 8 Bets
null
null
663.906343
YES
f1b465494411
r8etr8ay7v
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qzth36y57b9", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Ben Shindel
w5Dn3XgAB2h7kdOSKQXh
public
contract
1,716,656,691,022
will-the-key-bridge-collapse-in-bal
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will the Key bridge collapse in Baltimore be attributed to a cyberattack?
pii18rol17t
0.010397
520.561661
NO
null
myrsi74adm
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "m...
Ben Shindel
W7rttoExHN7Bw1WmHabq
public
contract
1,716,656,731,641
will-trump-continue-to-be-able-to-d
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will Trump continue to be able to do business in New York State next spring?
null
0.051781
441.938497
NO
null
lovy7lutypp
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just tried starting it up after not using it for the winter, battery seems to be dead. Charging it with our charger didn't work, but jumping it might, ...
Isaac King
5yiADb5Du3M4ShCVHelQ
public
contract
1,716,656,752,811
will-my-car-need-another-repair-wit
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
Will my car need another repair within 6 months? [M$5000 Subsidy]
null
null
null
null
null
062p129nf6hg
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "label": "SemioticRivalry", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
Ben Shindel
3GP225pY0LzYHrOrF0VW
public
contract
1,716,656,757,380
who-will-win-the-nba-regular-season
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Who will win the NBA regular season MVP award for the 2023-2024 season
null
null
127.312189
NO
108ea28492c6
6xk9inifvas
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Ben Shindel
3MdLtoKVfTfxaNnk9cvc
public
contract
1,716,656,795,366
in-the-acx-2023-prediction-contest
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will there be controversy over whether someone playing on blind mode cheated?
null
0.098494
29.085887
NO
null
ajehkya7pnt
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "te94lsmma8", "label": "Mich", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Isaac King
zKiiIxaRZQKTwPX2df9I
public
contract
1,716,656,848,587
can-manifold-legally-add-real-money
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
Can Manifold legally add real money gambling?
snp7t1ihdyd
null
null
null
null
sd4br7skg3k
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lovy7lutypp", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
5yiADb5Du3M4ShCVHelQ
public
contract
1,716,656,994,570
will-my-car-need-another-repair-wit
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will my car need another repair within 6 months? [M$5000 Subsidy]
lovy7lutypp
0.686435
0
NO
null
egm1e74gc4
false
ef4wZBFIAQVmMmaqfg5s1AhPsBj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "About 5 million behind first. 261 million to 266 million.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
Jaden Schalck
EK0ndYE1iCgdJxFXTCf5
public
contract
1,716,657,026,024
will-mrbeasts-channel-be-the-most-s
JadenSchalck
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ9Ajnsu9XnZlYUMn6oC1uyTSdXH61B9XfybWfSNhHFxmI=s96-c
Will MrBeast's channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel at the end of July first 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
nqucm0p5ej9
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "myrsi74adm", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
W7rttoExHN7Bw1WmHabq
public
contract
1,716,657,260,371
will-trump-continue-to-be-able-to-d
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Trump continue to be able to do business in New York State next spring?
myrsi74adm
null
null
null
null
5z2il782lla
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Pinging ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "m...
Joshua
W7rttoExHN7Bw1WmHabq
public
contract
1,716,657,277,275
will-trump-continue-to-be-able-to-d
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Trump continue to be able to do business in New York State next spring?
myrsi74adm
null
null
null
null
5ie7bskd1hu
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6xk9inifvas", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Isaac King
3MdLtoKVfTfxaNnk9cvc
public
contract
1,716,657,383,101
in-the-acx-2023-prediction-contest
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will there be controversy over whether someone playing on blind mode cheated?
6xk9inifvas
null
null
null
null
yic9iddk8og
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sd4br7skg3k", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Isaac King
5yiADb5Du3M4ShCVHelQ
public
contract
1,716,657,472,675
will-my-car-need-another-repair-wit
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
Will my car need another repair within 6 months? [M$5000 Subsidy]
lovy7lutypp
null
null
null
null
gv0tszyuhsm
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I tried to N/A this right before the ability to N/A was supposed to vanish and it looks like N/A did not stick. If anyone wants anything done about thi...
ClubmasterTransparent
lH8Cjj9T10JfiK9Plmlb
public
contract
1,716,657,613,315
a-security-exists-alameda-shares-in
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
A security exists: Alameda shares in Manifold. Will it be worth more than Soviet-era 100 ruble note on January 31, 2024?
null
null
null
null
null