id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2hbz273mq8u | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pwk0kdc1o3",
"label": "jacksonpolack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Some more specificity would still be good. Would someone spending a few hours a day on Twitter seeing NUDES IN BIO once a month count as the bots still there?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | MiYKcO3SMlpUqgbRh9TK | public | contract | 1,716,669,821,383 | will-the-nudes-in-bio-bots-be-gone | mongo | Will the "░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░" bots be gone from twitter before the end of 2024? | cij403erwoi | null | null | null | null | |
9pz1uoewvaj | false | iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What happens if you do the poll, and the 5th ranked thing has like 20% approval? Will it resolve to true? It feels like it'd be a lot better to resolve the ones that get above 50% approval as true, and below 50% approval as false.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dominic de Bettencourt | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,669,921,441 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | dominic | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 0 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 |
fr1qszt8hy | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/05/24/tucker-carlson-russia-tv-show-fact-check/73819388007/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "No, Tucker Carlson didn't launch a new show on Russian TV. Clips used without OK | Fact check",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "not looking good for us Yes holders at the mo. I wonder if there are any legal implications for any reason if he admit he supports or allows them to air the show? I still get the feeling that \"this is done without legal permission\" is lip service from his team, but I'm also not sure whether anything would be worse or challenging for him if he admitted he was good with it... probably more risk to public opinion than anything if he did. though when he was on Lex's podcast after the Putin interview aired, he wasn't exactly singing any praises.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "thinking out loud I guess - but I just spotted this article",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | 4cArjeTM7aiBg8cjYnwO | public | contract | 1,716,670,017,678 | will-tucker-carlson-start-a-russian | shankypanky | Will Tucker Carlson start a Russian TV show in 2024? | null | 0.170979 | 160.956762 | YES | null | |
q5d3jtn0lgg | false | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The AI Act will enter into force 20 days after publication. That is the default for EU regulations and also the case for this one specifically: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/article/113/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/article/113/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So this deadline is now impossible.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Johnny Ten-Numbers | k140nIGQ66PafKvySKas | public | contract | 1,716,670,346,543 | will-the-eu-ai-act-enter-into-force-289ddee092ef | 1941159478 | Will the EU AI Act enter into force before the end of May 2024? | null | 0.06 | 3,902.23868 | NO | null | |
h7o8ivifs4t | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9pz1uoewvaj",
"label": "dominic",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " That would have been more intuitive but I didn’t think of it. There has been enough trading that I don’t want to change it up now. More likely there will be a “bubble” at 5th place. A lot of things could happen but from the looks of things now there will probably be at least 5 options over 50%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,670,399,893 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ClubmasterTransparent | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | 9pz1uoewvaj | null | 37.695491 | YES | d674a30b0234 | |
0vqzlawmbn6 | false | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "eaqfddbj7du",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " That's enough for me",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Young | W7rttoExHN7Bw1WmHabq | public | contract | 1,716,670,604,735 | will-trump-continue-to-be-able-to-d | NathanpmYoung | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNathanpmYoung%2Flove-images%2Fg-n-xy50_N.43?alt=media&token=28208478-6907-4bc5-9fde-15746ee9af90 | Will Trump continue to be able to do business in New York State next spring? | myrsi74adm | null | null | null | null |
kglcwho02nh | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "He has three of the four polls, and he has ballot access in the following states:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Florida: 30 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Utah: 6 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Michigan: 15 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "California: 54 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Delaware: 3 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oklahoma: 7 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Texas: 40 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hawaii: 4 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "________________",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Total: 159 EV",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/24/rfk-jr-will-be-on-the-ballot-in-these-8-states-with-more-in-the-works-his-campaign-says/?sh=741552fc5894",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Here's Where RFK Jr. Is On The Presidential Ballot (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "http://forbes.com",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "forbes.com",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/24/rfk-jr-will-be-on-the-ballot-in-these-8-states-with-more-in-the-works-his-campaign-says/?sh=741552fc5894",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": ")",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | 6tH4hCf3kWtXWA64lMnu | public | contract | 1,716,670,747,756 | will-rfk-qualify-for-the-6272024-pr | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 6/27/2024 presidential debate on CNN? | null | 0.152758 | 165.896888 | YES | null |
6cbpvxetver | false | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom",
"target": "_self"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@FairlyRandom",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 80",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Base | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,670,986,914 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | Base | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | 1,262.491056 | NO | ef66cc22eb16 | |
sfyvx3qnw3 | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041332",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041332",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041334",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041334",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: 6cbpvxetver.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,670,994,992 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ob5zpnsqrse | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Argument FOR:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/opinion/elon-musk-spacex-brownsville-texas.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uk0.Bgcb.P3dhpwrbd8Fv&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/opinion/elon-musk-spacex-brownsville-texas.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uk0.Bgcb.P3dhpwrbd8Fv&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,671,032,851 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ClubmasterTransparent | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 41.559596 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
oiksygxrgam | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 26",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: 6cbpvxetver, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041334",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041334",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature a7be7f93ba9b7030c010a8a9097dfc5da8fc270d49a67f6e07d85ba758eb116ee716ddd5b8eb1f3d6859771474b4e5bb0758e6232cc38cf97abb63e131c594d5273fd43376fbdcde0038568345ab24dfe2630aedb1044e4b55b45efd5c37a96b)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,671,041,536 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jzp79hihhe | false | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom",
"target": "_self"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@FairlyRandom",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 80",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Base | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,671,049,122 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | Base | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | 1,262.491056 | NO | ef66cc22eb16 | |
vmjsys51lv | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041334",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041334",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041336",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041336",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: jzp79hihhe.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,671,052,542 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
kixbw6e0pi | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 59",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: jzp79hihhe, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041336",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041336",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature 97ca87526a0b8aaefd45b97e46090e7099dc7c18975f85437d0b862abb4df2a3d3c029e47c18f9127a0dd93401a129eb13e2d0f2b2f641b090b22a4a53f75b640892f9788889902d5b27aaabcf79a8eb73f70b8640e683a4be1d6d765dc243ea)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,671,101,759 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
x3b0lpdqnj | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Argument FOR:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-musk-kremlin-meme-1831593",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-musk-kremlin-meme-1831593",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,671,521,842 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ClubmasterTransparent | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 41.559596 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
2noa88r8zeg | false | Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pc25zylebm",
"label": "Hayden",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " total points!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | vibhav | uAj4hPT7qv0lanUMK4Vs | public | contract | 1,716,671,525,891 | 202324-nba-season-prop-bets | vibhav | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c | 2023-24 NBA Season Prop Bets | pc25zylebm | null | 0 | YES | e9ac226ea3d5 |
tqwhoa33xic | false | XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolving YES thanks to ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lQNtuosKRXcTAuiUv324XX5e0zs1",
"label": "AustinPlatt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "'s awesome work!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fion | VdgOfFrbMsAl0TSbu1Yd | public | contract | 1,716,671,537,091 | will-somebody-create-a-manifold-uk | Fion | Will somebody create a Manifold UK General Election Projection? | null | 50 | 5,443.908276 | YES | null | |
2r3x7czft63 | false | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pm5ok7d8m9",
"label": "sbares",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Why believe it impossible?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Garrett Baker | NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo | public | contract | 1,716,671,560,610 | will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1 | GarrettBaker | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030? | pm5ok7d8m9 | 0.45 | 200.598289 | YES | null |
c63994gim7q | false | Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "VVVj8BOvZ9fpuy8r85wokS8xSUk1",
"label": "bennyfeldman16fc",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " do you ever intend on resolving the other market (on what i assume is your alt account)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | vibhav | LFEGGEYiGzaGf0wjhC9V | public | contract | 1,716,671,632,327 | who-will-win-the-2024-hsnct | vibhav | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 HSNCT? | null | null | null | null | null |
50nw20fqw62 | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "409fo3zmlac",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Basically this has gone to a dispute on the UMA Oracle. Voting has nearly concluded, so waiting on results. The argument from Team N is that this might possibly be considered an endorsement, but it definitely is not an ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "\"explicit\"",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " endorsement which requires a higher bar. They also say that there is not a consensus that agree on whether or not it was an endorsement.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I personally have argued Yes, and have been the largest Y shareholder for most of the dispute (not anymore tho as I sold most of my shares).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Are you on Discord, stefanie?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | aenews | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,671,656,203 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | aenews | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | null | null | null | null | |
54waz1t5b1a | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Close time updated to the official race start time, 2:52 PM.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | 6uwQ0AHYVcNqFYqEBEQD | public | contract | 1,716,671,668,724 | who-will-win-the-2024-bowerman-mile | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 Bowerman Mile race? | null | null | 116.047875 | YES | b51acf187e50 |
vihcoojw17c | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "aw0yb3aqcdo",
"label": "AustinPlatt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " One was an accidental duplicate iirc, it should be closed / N/A so hopefully easy to ID and ignore. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | VdgOfFrbMsAl0TSbu1Yd | public | contract | 1,716,671,845,411 | will-somebody-create-a-manifold-uk | Noit | Will somebody create a Manifold UK General Election Projection? | aw0yb3aqcdo | null | null | null | null | |
maxgcn4uj2k | false | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not sure why some of these entries were N/A-ed - Steven Spielberg, for example.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Zane | LkPCpjA6WImIfMByv4Un | public | contract | 1,716,672,060,729 | universal-death-market-which-public | ZaneMiller | Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response] | null | null | null | null | null | |
6s1oz0b4o5 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "maxgcn4uj2k",
"label": "ZaneMiller",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Manifold changed the rules about how many options could be in a market and people had added a bunch of options taking up space that I thought made the market worse",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | LkPCpjA6WImIfMByv4Un | public | contract | 1,716,672,118,310 | universal-death-market-which-public | Joshua | Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response] | maxgcn4uj2k | null | 1,772.060807 | NO | 23086409a434 | |
kcgg06y0cyr | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ld49ibg5per",
"label": "patrik",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Many of those were caused by China not winning. China is quite good again though.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | 1ENGovCzIHzj3SHq71Wn | public | contract | 1,716,672,218,046 | china-will-win-and-the-us-will-fini | nathanwei | China will win and the US will finish second in the 2024 International Math Olympiad | ld49ibg5per | null | null | null | null | |
ycdxghp0a48 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "50nw20fqw62",
"label": "aenews",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " yeah I got that, but I still consider it pretty explicit for all of the same reasons, personally. I'm keep an eye on the market to see what the resolution is - I feel mostly comfortable staying with my Yes position (so far lol) ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "since the question is about ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "before June",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I assume No means the market stays open until the end of the month?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "yes, I'm on Discord",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,672,256,072 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | shankypanky | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | 50 | 666.471668 | YES | null | |
ej3gepqvvja | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hahahahaha",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | ZDRx34sOTLeTDRuSPpRQ | public | contract | 1,716,672,531,874 | which-political-party-will-be-the-t | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Which political party will be the "tough on AI" party? | null | null | null | null | null |
3jk5nfmrhyk | false | 37HPAlvhLRcWqwcEnaWSFqTmQSE2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If i’m one of the first, yes. If I am one of hundreds or thousands, only if I can return.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | the_puzzlax | uoGz6fMVYvLlEf5T81Lm | public | contract | 1,716,672,563,801 | if-you-had-the-opportunity-to-go-to | the_puzzlax | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKojQZcBy88x7yWXmIHFDzHsVzXavdct7mHfc_bdoqYJPc=s96-c | If you had the opportunity to go to Mars with guaranteed safety and low enough monetary cost, would you take it? | null | null | null | null | null |
caculxu9mqu | false | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "80k no limit at 21",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jackson polack | E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF | public | contract | 1,716,672,608,761 | will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024? | null | 0.189143 | 79.95905 | NO | null |
ygmwef59rvn | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33",
"label": "NathanpmYoung",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " how does this resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | QTGwE3vguvtLrX3W77Vs | public | contract | 1,716,672,693,371 | ongoing-relationships-stocks-which | Joshua | Ongoing Relationships Stocks: Which Manifolder's Relationships will still be ongoing through May 2024? | null | null | 17.142857 | YES | fbc015110834 | |
exdfbz1gns | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Also ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63",
"label": "Mad",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FH_3W1NL19s.png?alt=media&token=01465491-7885-4e5c-a907-a015d5ce6994",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | QTGwE3vguvtLrX3W77Vs | public | contract | 1,716,672,758,822 | ongoing-relationships-stocks-which | Joshua | Ongoing Relationships Stocks: Which Manifolder's Relationships will still be ongoing through May 2024? | ygmwef59rvn | null | 17.142857 | YES | fbc015110834 | |
151u62pj9yp | false | 9tMOYH0haQedEtscs52ovqodo3t2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2",
"label": "Gigacasting",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Could you edit the \"Deepmind\" entry to be Google Deepmind? Right now there's \"Deepmind\", which seems to be heavily traded, and way down there is \"Google\". Probably the \"Google\" one should N/A so there isn't confusion.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris Prichard | G9LK2uvWOmbtd6hsCErD | public | contract | 1,716,672,978,745 | what-will-be-the-top3-ai-labs-in-20 | ChrisPrichard | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYidkxgB2nkeLVgNFdhGolb0T_m7SDNRfGUzOifoQ=s96-c | What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025? | null | null | 17,631.667959 | NO | a7aae4eca313 |
60eldwqmbb8 | false | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves YES: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/16/us/daniel-perry-texas-pardon-recommendation",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/16/us/daniel-perry-texas-pardon-recommendation",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Arky | GZxpSHmwnyMTpjBYL5tz | public | contract | 1,716,673,173,480 | will-daniel-perry-be-pardoned-until | Arky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | Will Daniel Perry be pardoned until the end of 2025? | null | 0.99 | 1,400.126331 | YES | null |
tm9czx38o0l | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ycdxghp0a48",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yeah that's right. The options that were voted on were Yes or Too Early (Stays Open). ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm @aenews on Discord. Not sure if you've ever joined the UMA server, but you should consider posting for future disputes (could post for this as well, but would purely be for discussion since voting is 95% complete). Your kind of well-reasoned logical takes would be a great thing to see more of, whether or not we happen to agree in the future.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | aenews | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,673,179,305 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | aenews | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | null | null | null | null | |
m2wgl2mbod | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | kkEbfirimVq2tfb1ZIl0 | public | contract | 1,716,673,207,948 | will-someone-play-doom-on-the-moon-099ebcaf2ab3 | strutheo | Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2060? | null | null | null | null | null | |
n68qzcyyoq | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "73 out fully ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | dWj7KTMNGAKjFJKiiUVc | public | contract | 1,716,673,231,624 | will-skibidi-toilet-reach-100-full | strutheo | Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 full episodes (by the creator's numbering) by EOY 2024? | null | 0.241561 | 0 | YES | null | |
jc4427mo7x | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | PuVV0cUvyORbPZ0YaFBR | public | contract | 1,716,673,237,990 | will-bitcon-reach-100k-before-the-o | strutheo | Will Bitcoin reach $100K before the One Piece manga ends? | null | null | null | null | null | |
k4xiqwgrfhq | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | JeQtP7Iy55xXPYnjgu8z | public | contract | 1,716,673,243,184 | will-a-superbowl-game-go-to-double | strutheo | Will a Superbowl Game go to Double Overtime before the end of March 2030? | null | null | null | null | null | |
sus9v2av8ac | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 8VhzltZEZOX20zJODUdA | public | contract | 1,716,673,248,032 | will-there-be-a-new-most-liked-yout | strutheo | Will there be a new Most Liked YouTube video by EOY 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
iv7e0x6nk1 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 7f4WjccHH6yD42cot2Ep | public | contract | 1,716,673,255,638 | will-sam-altman-still-be-ceo-of-ope | strutheo | Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
bokh5nhfauf | false | UWYwI4o0D1dVErgMvko1slLrgfD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "very good work, we from ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.khansaprinting.com/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Percetakan Jakarta Timur",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " give it a very top thumbs up, let's develop the work again with something even better and make us all moved again, greetings from ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.t4printz.com/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Percetakan Jakarta",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Timur, thank you",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Putra Yulanda | omMI0dsgiTnB7NoSxsOO | public | contract | 1,716,673,258,444 | what-is-the-current-thing-today-tra-5e3490b327f9 | PutraYulanda | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOKvLuqq0pDJ_3ziJTJBSSLPazxv-nr_u8KbsNMnVNGzR_KcY=s96-c | What is the "Current Thing" today? [Tracker, resolves to Market] | null | null | null | null | null |
rn3msjg33sh | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 7HtUYqt5dFZGmGbYD18t | public | contract | 1,716,673,265,267 | will-nintendo-legally-go-after-palw-98389633dcbe | strutheo | Will Nintendo Legally go after Palworld before Taylor Swift gets engaged/married? | null | null | null | null | null | |
s08awqegxn | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | E5rLyzWVoDWANAUH962n | public | contract | 1,716,673,268,753 | will-a-person-die-on-the-moon-befor | strutheo | Will a person die on the moon before the end of 2050? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hnxn59p46g6 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF | public | contract | 1,716,673,280,117 | will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-f1bb90be7133 | strutheo | Will Taylor Swift get married before Twitter launches a Peer to Peer payment system? | null | null | null | null | null | |
27wpw7nekgu | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 7BqIr8kesruBnAY2bY37 | public | contract | 1,716,673,296,519 | will-tucker-carlsons-streaming-serv | strutheo | Will Tucker Carlson's streaming service still be charging at least $9/mo on June 1st 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jcvrcu9mcg | false | ANizTgbWIbaIKdPJcLdifo2Qc6m2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm sorry, what do you mean by episodes of movies? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | DiscoDan | BajZ4k4REmmemaFo5fKI | public | contract | 1,716,673,340,322 | what-tv-shows-will-i-watch-at-least-264e43f89c3e | DiscoDan | What movies will I watch at least two episodes of before 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lgq1fdgda18 | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Was poorer than a grad student when he was starting zip2. His middle class asshole dad wasn’t supporting him when he went to America with his brother. The “born on third base” thing is clearly false unless referring to being born with an extremely driven personality and high intelligence ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Ray | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,673,354,227 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | JonathanRay | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 316.036702 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 | |
zw116lqvxed | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "650",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | bfBNC48s2OusFpw149hR | public | contract | 1,716,673,354,399 | will-our-steam-game-heartseeker-sur | strutheo | Will our Steam game Heartseeker surpass 1000 sales by Oct 5th 2031 (10th anniversary of release)? | null | null | null | null | null | |
3at4ann79b4 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "50nw20fqw62",
"label": "aenews",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ah nice tip - thanks! I'll go look for it as I'd be happy to find a place to see and participate in discourse from time to time.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm in the Poly server but I don't look at it much. feels a bit feral lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,673,372,036 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | shankypanky | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | 50 | 666.471668 | YES | null | |
vi9e6kwkric | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | Y8h8Nw79vFYwBAFeJI4j | public | contract | 1,716,673,373,846 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-a7a307ae2768 | strutheo | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of August? | null | null | null | null | null | |
5bewaqle3e6 | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is now official policy of Sunak’s conservatives, so maybe it should tick up a bit? Probably not a lot though, given how bad his odds look. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | JH7ZJqadtGEdtCBufBee | public | contract | 1,716,673,381,413 | will-the-uk-government-pass-legisla-5b20fdf67168 | Noit | Will the UK government pass legislation introducing conscription for military service before 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
g7fmx4i5hii | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | rohKcqwN2kWA8qLNCKnh | public | contract | 1,716,673,387,520 | in-2024-human-marathon-under-2h-or | strutheo | In 2024: human marathon under 2h OR Bitcoin reaches $150K OR perfect game pitched OR Manifold reaches 40K MAU? | null | null | null | null | null | |
8z8nnxm0zbc | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FF6zovCis8E.webp?alt=media&token=ca7de81b-5d74-4490-accd-ab528bb23dbb",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | PRz9pDpXy8nMmx7xA2Uc | public | contract | 1,716,673,397,797 | will-biden-live-to-see-luffy-find-t | strutheo | Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece? | null | null | null | null | null | |
frf0uodgx5m | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 7eRJarqvByVsNdMgvy1z | public | contract | 1,716,673,405,394 | will-pickleball-be-an-official-olym | strutheo | Will Pickleball be an official Olympic event before the first female president of the United States ? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hh1709z2j9b | false | ANizTgbWIbaIKdPJcLdifo2Qc6m2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ah, I think I understand 🤦♂️ Which movie will you watch for a second time! 😁",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | DiscoDan | BajZ4k4REmmemaFo5fKI | public | contract | 1,716,673,438,171 | what-tv-shows-will-i-watch-at-least-264e43f89c3e | DiscoDan | What movies will I watch at least two episodes of before 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
omkek5lfj7 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "nvm found it ✌️",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,673,459,724 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | shankypanky | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | 50 | 666.471668 | YES | null | |
1mr20v2glp8 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.indiewire.com/awards/results/cannes-2024-awards-winners-list-palme-dor-1235009040/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.indiewire.com/awards/results/cannes-2024-awards-winners-list-palme-dor-1235009040/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Anora won",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | Uzw7bNWFlKZ5oJfpvA0G | public | contract | 1,716,673,925,199 | will-an-englishlanguage-film-win-th | Ziddletwix | Will an English-language film win the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival in 2024? | null | 0.555491 | 1,388.862884 | YES | null | |
04144b2jy15y | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.indiewire.com/awards/results/cannes-2024-awards-winners-list-palme-dor-1235009040/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.indiewire.com/awards/results/cannes-2024-awards-winners-list-palme-dor-1235009040/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Palm Dog = Dog on Trial",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Palme d'Or = Anora",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Grand Prix = All We Imagine as Light",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "Camera d’Or = ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Armand",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | vqRECfBOCwbgHSgH3F3K | public | contract | 1,716,673,996,720 | will-winner-of-the-palm-dog-at-the | Ziddletwix | Will winner of the Palm Dog at the Cannes Film Festival also win the Palme d'Or, Grand Prix, OR Caméra d'Or? | null | 0.468379 | 863.766595 | NO | null | |
dnwtt6euorg | false | hqUHVBYKEdXGYsMsBL22wIqAibg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "+1 parallel to the SHs and sabaody now, he gonna come back stronger than ever!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Toni Leo | 4LzxKthtg1dJIhQYCyZN | public | contract | 1,716,674,080,876 | kidd-stock | ToniLeo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKAMrxEXcwUB91Ryyg5pCTD7NIe8dGWWK2gfAPtDjpDfg0KIA=s96-c | Kid Stock | null | null | null | null | null |
vh18ivnqe3h | false | NuHwhn6zEFaGrZakbtiqPqMB0cJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2r3x7czft63",
"label": "GarrettBaker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Neuralink's brain implants are to the optic nerve as a caveman banging rocks together is to the Large Hadron Collider. If you're being (very!) generous, you could say that they do vaguely similar things, but the former obviously has no hope of emulating the latter.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | sbares | NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo | public | contract | 1,716,674,103,196 | will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1 | sbares | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzkvyIz-LOJPQwSdbXHkM-F-In2wj3gxsEipRrEw=s96-c | Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030? | pm5ok7d8m9 | 0.45 | 4,566.40559 | NO | null |
53es8omfb4h | false | GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What exactly has Anthropic contributed? The Golden Gate Bridge thing is almost confirmation that they shouldn’t be top 3. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | capy | JoKOuHebLuGKni0Qfy8j | public | contract | 1,716,674,230,254 | which-3-ai-labscompanies-will-make | capybara | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660 | Which 3 AI labs/companies will make the most impact in 2024 (technical contributions to the field of AI)? | null | null | 1,800.364827 | YES | abdc1c2071e3 |
xuv49b5sb4 | false | wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dr22ph3rka6",
"label": "CampbellHutcheson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Correct. Nvidia would have to reach a market cap of about $5T. 60% or so more than the most valuable company in the history of the world. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It’s not gonna happen in 2024 for sure. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris V | Z1GN0uwK9PbFMqGoZEs5 | public | contract | 1,716,674,280,779 | will-nvidias-share-price-break-2000 | voodoo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c | Will Nvidia's share price break $2000 in 2024? | dr22ph3rka6 | 0.413461 | 10,311.539029 | NO | null |
mbj43u9u2d | false | GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jcvrcu9mcg",
"label": "DiscoDan",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Trick question, all answers are NO? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | capy | BajZ4k4REmmemaFo5fKI | public | contract | 1,716,674,305,340 | what-tv-shows-will-i-watch-at-least-264e43f89c3e | capybara | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660 | What movies will I watch at least two episodes of before 2025? | jcvrcu9mcg | null | null | null | null |
3kitp2gju9y | false | ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " please resolve to N/A",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Andri | 3OPoTJIyfHOFN0jywOtN | public | contract | 1,716,674,401,995 | if-ukraine-wins-eurovision-2024-wil | andri | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c | If Ukraine wins Eurovision 2024, will Eurovision 2025 take place in Ukraine? | null | null | null | null | null |
m5u5r3zhgf | false | QQInWv7nHJgbmN67E7QlHfQDkO42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If banned then unbanned, how does this resolve?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dave K | 3rtPOzDg6Isk7lJfWPcz | public | contract | 1,716,674,453,850 | will-necrodominance-be-banned-in-mo | DaveK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2R6SvkbqD9GkJI_SN-kCZntRToJnhbIGK4scrO=s96-c | Will Necrodominance be banned in Modern by 5/25/26? | null | null | null | null | null |
qfncufjjaq | false | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom",
"target": "_self"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@FairlyRandom",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 80",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Base | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,674,462,179 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | Base | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | 1,262.491056 | NO | ef66cc22eb16 | |
8ypsjmyfbyn | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041448",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041448",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041450",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041450",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: qfncufjjaq.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,674,463,260 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
m92fihiqpc8 | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 31",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: qfncufjjaq, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041450",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041450",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature adc65eb61eec58130dabf5f4e02f7d5adbaeeb205ece08a8536789b2a9e9197b3377a3ae433d0aac8017fde3a269ec51127272ae72ac620b0e0e120fac9235458a571e9bac48646612ccd3e8704cfb05dccac8ba51cedaf731bebba162b98bd1)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,674,523,144 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
g8r33a1u7hb | false | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom",
"target": "_self"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "@FairlyRandom",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 80",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Base | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,674,528,609 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | Base | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | 1,262.491056 | NO | ef66cc22eb16 | |
xcgry1egcrg | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041450",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041450",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041452",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041452",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: g8r33a1u7hb.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,674,530,717 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
rfes9ojg2el | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Base",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 78",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: g8r33a1u7hb, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4041452",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4041452",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature 891b6816060ab7b779a620cd5495430e683537b005203a269804f7def74db3d922e94c7157e3176cb91d668e13cd810617c366459648eda5eeb6871aa10c5d1babd7e04e2e32c7a27b9c009e7551b8a7749289eb4f16761247c7c3204fc0cfc7)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | 4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq | public | contract | 1,716,674,583,815 | how-many-hits-after-30-days | FairlyRandom | How many hits after 30 days? | null | null | null | null | null | |
2kog2503dxo | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "omkek5lfj7",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Ah, awesome. For reference, general discussion is in the #voting-discussion channel. And the #evidence-rationale channel has threads for each dispute where each person is allowed one post. These posts are also shown on the voting portal itself (all UMA voters will see them), so they directly affect the result.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | aenews | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,674,741,459 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | aenews | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | null | null | null | null | |
be5k16qbx78 | false | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vh18ivnqe3h",
"label": "sbares",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Sounds like an argument for a different position than the one you claimed. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Garrett Baker | NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo | public | contract | 1,716,674,964,226 | will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1 | GarrettBaker | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030? | pm5ok7d8m9 | 0.45 | 200.598289 | YES | null |
ev3sjxe84fr | false | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "w0we6rjbc",
"label": "IsaacKing",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I've created ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai-a8ceb93e18fb",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai-a8ceb93e18fb",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " as an equivalent market, resolving per my judgment. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": "50% chance. This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's. I expect it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will evaluate as independently as possible.\n\nThe AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English. For example, \"defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons\", \"build a creeper farm out of TNT\", \"create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone\", \"locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]\", \"fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours\", etc.\n\nIt must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server. (If necessary, I'll find some humans for it to compete with and compare its success against. The other people in the server must start unaware of who is an AI vs. a human competitor. They must be normal Minecraft players, not people there to specifically help or hinder the AI.)\n\nAt any point during this process, it must be able to write up a description of its current progress in the task and instructions to continue, to be provided to itself after a restart with fresh memory. It must then proceed with similar efficiency after the restart.\n\nIt must have no direct access to the internet or external world. It is allowed to ask other people in the server to interact with the external world for it, but it must not outsource a significant fraction of the job to them. (e.g. it could ask someone to look up the crafting recipe to an item for it, but not to give it an entire plan for building a redstone machine.) (Note that when comparing it to a competent human, I'm not assuming the same restriction of the human.)\n\nIt must demonstrate no evidence of misalignment or misunderstandings of the sort a human would not do. e.g. \"make sure no zombies spawn in this house\" should not be interpreted as \"destroy the house\".\n\nThe general bar for tasks it can be expected to perform is \"what an intelligent human would find reasonably doable in the course of their own gameplay\". Creating a simple redstone adder for very small numbers is something that I bet many Manifold users could figure out on their own with a bit of research, so that can be required of the AI. Creating a redstone computer that implements a Twitter clone on a 1024x1024 block display is not reasonable for a human to do without mods, so cannot be asked of the AI.\n\nI reserve the right to edit these criteria in accordance with the spirit of the question: \"Will we have an AI that can play Minecraft just as well as a human, including the social aspects of multiplayer?\"",
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "b96b3774-af13-42a9-bf26-74dd4bdbb025",
"image": "https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=Before+2035%2C+will+there+exist+any+AI+that+can+perform+arbitrary+tasks+in+Minecraft%3F&numTraders=0&volume=0&probability=50%25&creatorName=Gabrielle&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa%2FAATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr%3Ds96-c&points=",
"inputKey": "comment G0GmOyaD1Qx3LoXfP9N7comment w0we6rjbc",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai-a8ceb93e18fb"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gabrielle | G0GmOyaD1Qx3LoXfP9N7 | public | contract | 1,716,675,122,024 | before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai | Gabrielle | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? | w0we6rjbc | null | null | null | null |
od19go3thcm | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media2.giphy.com/media/j6uK36y32LxQs/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1cam5m37u345cw9r341qwgt4w6g1449dxd884wux63k&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's never preferable not to tell them.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | hWXY0Dl1q38Sx7Sc0zXJ | public | contract | 1,716,675,128,585 | how-comfident-do-you-think-one-shou | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ? | null | null | null | null | null |
hzg8sk1tqdq | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8vicqwqh",
"label": "BobSnodgrass",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I agree with your thoughts here. I definitely think that",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "no headline/sub-headline uses the words \"offensive\", \"operation\", \"assault\", \"raid\" to describe Israel's ongoing activity in Rafah and DOES have at least one headline/sub-headline in which the Times directly describes Israel's ongoing activities in Rafah as an \"invasion\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is too strict and does not fit the resolution criteria. As I mentioned in a previous comment, it would probably sound strange from a linguistic perspective if the NYT literally only used the word invasion. We can consider the larger Israeli operation in Gaza as an \"invasion,\" and attacks on cities themselves are probably better classified as \"offensives\" or \"assaults.\" If we use a comparison to Ukraine, when Russian troops stepped over the border, we of course saw reports about a Russian invasion. But when Russia captured Bakhmut, or any other city, NYTimes articles never call that an \"invasion of Bakhmut,\" they call it an assault or an offensive. This is an example from one article, but I couldn't find any article describing an \"invasion of Bakhmut\" or something similar. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=%22invasion+of+Bakhmut%22",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "A Google Search for exactly \"invasion of Bakhmut\" returns 0 results.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/world/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/world/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Moscow has declared victory in its long, bloody assault.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "___",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The way I see it, this is how this market has evolved:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": 1,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Will resolve YES if the NYT unequivocally reports a ground invasion of Rafah. It must be an actual invasion and can't be a limited raid or covert operation. Using the word \"invasion\" will be a great indication that an invasion has started but this isn't necessary for a YES resolution.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oh, it looks like the word invasion was used, but it's only one reporter and they also used synonyms of the word invasion, so it's a bit iffy. Let's wait and see if other reporters also use this word.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Huh, now most reporters covering Rafah are using the word \"invasion,\" and they are reporting about tanks rolling through and bombs falling on central Rafah, but it looks like they still used \"operation\" and \"offensive\" x times. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "WE ARE HERE -->",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Now using the words \"assault\" and \"offensive\" immediately precludes a YES resolution, ONLY \"invasion\" can be used.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "orderedList"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "tl;dr: this market went from \"we want to see when the NYT reports an actual ground invasion of Rafah, not a raid or covert operations. If they use the word \"invasion\" it'll definitely be sufficient, but that's not a requirement\" to \"The NYT must use ONLY the word invasion and NO other word. Linguistics be damned!\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mint | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,716,675,216,722 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | mint | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | gp37yc7iy6v | null | 2,261.216703 | YES | 74177def07ab | |
89mz5f9nu9i | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2kog2503dxo",
"label": "aenews",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " oh solid - thanks for that. I was in voting-discussion seeing the comments back and forth. the community really makes a lot of personal jabs whenever the opportunity arises 😂 same as the Poly server ( s̶e̶e̶m̶i̶n̶g̶l̶y̶ t̶o̶ a̶ l̶e̶s̶s̶e̶r̶ d̶e̶g̶r̶e̶e̶) <- spoke too soon ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I won't bother with this one but I'll see how it feels to contribute in the future if I might have something meaningful to add. I'm @shankypanky_ over there (someone got in before me when discord moved away from #1234 discriminators so alas, I'm stuck with an underscore)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,675,251,753 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | shankypanky | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | 50 | 666.471668 | YES | null | |
ioj1464szhb | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If Manifold adds conditional markets, will they be used for shitmarkets more often than the frequency of shitmarkets today? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(Spam markets, questions about Manifold itself, things like the ass-eating market — folks are very innovative at shitmarket creation.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | cS6hzLNYuCzqa2L1KT7l | public | contract | 1,716,675,261,246 | will-manifold-add-dedicated-conditi | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
kz38dlxpr6 | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6o9880akptp",
"label": "Mich",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " What's one dollar anyway",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gaz Downright | hWXY0Dl1q38Sx7Sc0zXJ | public | contract | 1,716,675,461,262 | how-comfident-do-you-think-one-shou | GazDownright | How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ? | 6o9880akptp | null | null | null | null | |
0plrx3vv32jb | false | P6XpUpKbtlZ4B7jaFjYT3eKF07y2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ga1y8q8qgge",
"label": "LarsDoucet",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " then this should be resolved to \"yes\". we already have command r plus, and llama-3-70b outperforming the first release of gpt4 and this is running on 3000$ hardware reasonably fast (faster then 24 hours for one query for fp16). even in the category \"hard prompts\" llama-70b already outperforms first gpt4 release according to lmsys",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | notune | ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs | public | contract | 1,716,675,638,274 | will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able-2146d4144ade | notune | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fnotune%2FZqoeQ1d4gW.27?alt=media&token=e89841b8-0480-4048-ad6c-636762b6788a | Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025? | dtwejmcpmvk | 0.674046 | 141.021625 | YES | null |
xwp3yrvfa1 | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "89mz5f9nu9i",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " It's to a lesser degree on UMA as the mods will remove anything too bad (Poly server has less moderation). You uhh prolly walked in a bad time 😆 If you ever feel a comment is over the line, can tag the community person Mide.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | aenews | iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv | public | contract | 1,716,675,674,628 | how-will-this-controversial-polymar | aenews | How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve? | sxaa3728wkh | null | null | null | null | |
9o4rfv03a8c | false | 0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "x9jqx8vtffa",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I’ll count it. “US land” should mean any territory under US jurisdiction. The path of the hurricane must still make landfall, passing near an island won’t count.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Magnus | FYtNIEkxFEMcR7awWvc7 | public | contract | 1,716,675,685,925 | when-will-the-first-hurricane-of-20 | thepurplebull | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c | When will the first hurricane of 2024 make landfall in the US? | x9jqx8vtffa | null | null | null | null |
xldgw17xh5 | false | JuPdylq620YYzGYlRvqYE7MbbKA3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As some of you may know that I was in some of the email threads to the now disgraced NIH official, David Morens, I want to categorically deny any accusations that I was part of the cover up too. Not that you suckers can do anything about it if it were true but it ain't.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kristian Anders$n | 4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7 | public | contract | 1,716,675,743,289 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory | KristianAndersen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLfCER3HQfMxYpT36bgM9yVTL_16IFTq27qzThy_6nS=s96-c | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | null | 0.59136 | 4,748.779452 | YES | null |
5yv3r9g4dvb | false | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/PaperBoy/what-percentage-of-the-pop-vote-wil",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paper Boy | 296ybaLp6xskH4pApIaQ | public | contract | 1,716,675,791,798 | will-rfk-junior-reach-5-percent-of | PaperBoy | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c | Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538 polling average is 10.1 percent. | null | null | null | null | null |
ykcgzc4p51h | false | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/PaperBoy/what-percentage-of-the-pop-vote-wil",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Paper Boy | 69kTOtaIDlh4eBVMVzxJ | public | contract | 1,716,675,810,596 | will-rfk-jr-reach-5-percent-of-the | PaperBoy | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c | Will RFK Jr. reach 5 percent of the national popular vote in the 2024 election? | null | null | null | null | null |
kxwse6bfstq | false | P6XpUpKbtlZ4B7jaFjYT3eKF07y2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0plrx3vv32jb",
"label": "notune",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " if however we would go for the mmlu score then I guess we would need to wait for llama3-400b",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | notune | ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs | public | contract | 1,716,675,852,648 | will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able-2146d4144ade | notune | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fnotune%2FZqoeQ1d4gW.27?alt=media&token=e89841b8-0480-4048-ad6c-636762b6788a | Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025? | dtwejmcpmvk | 0.674046 | 141.021625 | YES | null |
am4gnxdkx9m | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Can be resolved YES.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gaz Downright | 5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ | public | contract | 1,716,675,875,912 | will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e | GazDownright | Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season? | null | 0.193135 | 1,647.648928 | YES | null | |
ft1jkwtvqow | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why federal? (“Federal” isn’t a synonym of “serious”.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jess Riedel | szNJ2PRWnuqhEgzPeZJ4 | public | contract | 1,716,676,168,716 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-be-charged-w-65595e6ff396 | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be charged with a federal crime before the end of 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
022xqc9xfplj | false | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "am4gnxdkx9m",
"label": "GazDownright",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Resolving as mod based on ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13143017/race-for-european-football-ends-with-man-utd-qualifying-for-europa-league-and-newcastle-missing-out",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13143017/race-for-european-football-ends-with-man-utd-qualifying-for-europa-league-and-newcastle-missing-out",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JAAM | 5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ | public | contract | 1,716,676,201,211 | will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e | egroj | Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season? | am4gnxdkx9m | null | null | null | null | |
a6un3ldmmdj | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "022xqc9xfplj",
"label": "egroj",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thank you!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gaz Downright | 5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ | public | contract | 1,716,676,257,558 | will-manchester-united-make-it-to-e | GazDownright | Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season? | am4gnxdkx9m | 0.193135 | 1,647.648928 | YES | null | |
5lewdd5bfr | false | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "m5u5r3zhgf",
"label": "DaveK",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " yes.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Zvi Mowshowitz | 3rtPOzDg6Isk7lJfWPcz | public | contract | 1,716,676,430,675 | will-necrodominance-be-banned-in-mo | ZviMowshowitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | Will Necrodominance be banned in Modern by 5/25/26? | m5u5r3zhgf | null | null | null | null |
eui5ye9v3rm | false | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think this resolves YES. TL;DR: FOD ingestion is operating the engines outside their intended operating regime, it is not an ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "engine",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " problem when they then proceed to fail.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Things that seem uncontroversial to me:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All engines worked on the first stage ascent burn",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All second stage engines worked when commanded (the on-orbit burn was skipped for non-engine reasons, and the ship exploded during re-entry before landing burns)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The complexity comes, obviously, in the boostback and landing burns of the first stage, where several engines shut down. I see two primary points to consider:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The problems discussed in the report are listed as the \"most likely root cause\"; this is not a completely certain finding. We may or may not get more certainty later.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The problems are mostly attributable to FOD ingestion and filter blockages, likely in the form of ice (not mentioned in the report, but widely rumored).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So the major question is whether ice in the prop system counts as an \"engine problem\". My view is that it is much closer to \"tank problems, propellant slosh, tank depressurization, or other related problems\" than it is \"engine problems\". I expect that, if there is a defined amount of allowed FOD, ice, solids, or similar in the engine spec, it was exceeded in this flight. Which is to say, the engines failed because they were operated outside of their intended parameters, causing \"loss of inlet pressure in engine oxygen turbopumps\". That's not quite the same wording as something like \"loss of inlet pressure to the engine\" would be; I gather that the filters that clogged may be part of the engine rather than the stage. So this isn't quite \"the stage failed to supply propellant to the engine\" but rather the closely related case of \"the stage supplied contaminated propellant to the engine\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If the engines had ingested a rag or tool that was left in the tank and failed as a result of that, it would be a prop system problem (or, more broadly viewed, an operational and procedures problem), not an engine problem. The only way this is an engine problem is if the engine spec had an allowable FOD limit that this was within, and the engine (and engine filters) failed to tolerate it. As best I can tell, that's not what happened.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This turned out to be a bit more of a mess than I was hoping for, and I think the fault their lies with question writing that did not adequately anticipate the full range of failure scenarios; that's entirely my fault. I think I could have written this much more clearly, concisely, and more closely matching my goals had I included phrasing like \"while operated within their intended design envelope\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Evan | zRF9y8WMQakaSn2vYuD3 | public | contract | 1,716,676,553,508 | is-raptor-reliability-solved-will-a | EvanDaniel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c | Is Raptor reliability solved? (Will all of them work on the next flight?) (IFT-3) | null | 0.921973 | 16.019823 | YES | null |
8xdu4bo496 | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gp37yc7iy6v",
"label": "ManifoldPolitics",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Though you didn't explicitly say it, I take issue with this comment because it implies that those two paragraphs show that the NYT doesn't think an invasion has begun. But it definitely doesn't. They are reporting on what the Americans and Israeli's think, and not taking any position on it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "both the Israelis and the Americans are characterizing this as a “limited operation,” allowing the Israelis to proceed, though more slowly and cautiously than they had in other parts of Gaza.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don't really see how this is relevant to the market as they are reporting on the opinions of the US & Israel, which have strong political reasons to consider this a limited operation and not an invasion. The only way we can evaluate this market is based on facts reported the NYT, not the thinking of officials. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "On the topic of examples that would definitely resolve this market YES, given the criteria clarifications, I think something like this is appropriate. It explicitly avoids using the trap of specific words, of which there are many synonyms, and sticks to what facts would indicate that a ground invasion has unequivocally occurred in Rafah.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market will resolve YES if the NYT or WSJ definitely reports the presence of Israeli ground units in the city of Rafah itself, not in surround suburbs, and not in the capacity of a limited operation. An example that would resolve this market as YES is: \"On Sunday, Israel ground troops entered central Rafah, marking a sharp escalation from the original limited operation to control the border and surrounding suburbs. A representative of the Israeli government confirmed to the Times that the next stage of the Rafah operation would the elimination of Hamas militants located within, and below, central Rafah itself.\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think this is fair because as far as I've seen, we haven't seen something this definitive from the times yet. IMO, the best argument for this market still being open isn't those two paragraphs you quoted about the personal opinions of American and Israeli officials, and definitely isn't the inclusion of \"assault\" or \"operation\" X times in an article while \"invasion\" appears Y times, it's that there is still the chance of an escalation even further. For example, the NYT reported these quotes, not all together or in the same article:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Palestinian news media reported that an Israeli strike had killed one person in central Rafah and that there was also fighting in the eastern suburbs of the city. Strikes were also reported in other parts of the territory, and the Israeli military confirmed that it also continued to operate in Jabaliya, northern Gaza.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Israeli forces dropped leaflets ordering people to evacuate and launched a military offensive this month in the eastern part of Rafah, and they have been advancing yard-by-yard deeper into the city.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The Israeli military has been moving in studied advances into Rafah since May 6, so far without the kind of heavy bombardment it used against other parts of Gaza, after telling people to evacuate parts of the city. About 815,000 have fled, many of them on foot, the United Nations said this week, most of them bound for the war-ravaged cities of Khan Younis and Deir al Balah farther north, and the coastal village of Al-Mawasi.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All of these indicate that there is room for further escalation into the center of Rafah, which is why I feel like it's fair to set the criteria there.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mint | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,716,676,657,950 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | mint | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | gp37yc7iy6v | null | 2,261.216703 | YES | 74177def07ab | |
c5mwn572m3t | false | pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s9p6fwretbk",
"label": "CyfralCoot",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Some other market had “Other” as the explanation for dark matter above 20% though",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mario pasquato | tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv | public | contract | 1,716,676,811,527 | what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b | mariopasquato | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c | What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? | nb9smw57fd | 0.293698 | 33.081925 | NO | null |
0cgv9wi532kl | false | pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0h1tyunhpgtt",
"label": "IsaacKing",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " You might as well say that all of the (non-existent) dark matter is X, where X is any property, including being baryonic. But if you say you will resolve to 0% then that’s great.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mario pasquato | tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv | public | contract | 1,716,677,036,660 | what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b | mariopasquato | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c | What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? | nb9smw57fd | 0.293698 | 33.081925 | NO | null |
r82mieqrl3 | false | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I predict that AI made at the end of 2025 would be called AGI by us today, but that at the end of 2025 we'll say that it's not ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "true",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " AGI.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | singer | s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk | public | contract | 1,716,677,348,654 | will-we-have-an-agi-as-smart-as-a-g | singer | Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
amc0bhem5sp | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2",
"label": "wglane",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Resolves to Josh Kerr.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | LqB6F0nCZNbdmcRFL4qs | public | contract | 1,716,677,516,491 | who-will-win-the-2024-prefontaine-c | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 Prefontaine Classic Bowerman Mile? | null | null | 473.293347 | NO | 0066700e2413 |
ryil610hc2l | false | pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Making slideshows of AI generated explicit images is well within the means of current open source tools. If enough of those get uploaded that may warrant a category?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mario pasquato | BtTGLciY0EEE01MtKwxD | public | contract | 1,716,677,619,742 | by-end-of-2028-will-pornhub-have-a | mariopasquato | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c | By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn? | null | 0.85522 | 280.325296 | NO | null |
j1yu2xazogh | false | mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "IPL Final!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Awex | WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm | public | contract | 1,716,677,696,074 | ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f | Awex | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEJSiCXiS_kZhfU5yXKmqFem_U5QpZW21S2Qrt9yAVdXM=s96-c | 🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game. | null | null | 2,309.689187 | YES | 9da0aec5cf3f |
wdmkjbdfdkj | false | NuHwhn6zEFaGrZakbtiqPqMB0cJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "be5k16qbx78",
"label": "GarrettBaker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Then let me make it more clear: I do not believe you can make someone \"see\" by haphazardly sticking a chip on their their brain and hoping it does something. It seems to me just as unlikely to work as it is for a rock-banging caveman to discover the Higgs particle.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | sbares | NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo | public | contract | 1,716,678,110,662 | will-neuralink-successfully-enable-c5092c5cd2a1 | sbares | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzkvyIz-LOJPQwSdbXHkM-F-In2wj3gxsEipRrEw=s96-c | Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030? | pm5ok7d8m9 | 0.45 | 4,566.40559 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.