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pbl19s75o3
false
vFBeGDlrdGTqxZAR7rhIcc4j8ME2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sn370pv0i7e", "label": "MaxMorehead", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.abc6.com/supporters-of-palestine-israel-protest-at-brown-commencement/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.abc6.com/supporters-of-palestine-israel-protest-at-brown-commencement/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "some brief interruptions of a few minutes to our College Ceremony on Sunday because of noise from a small group of protestors", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" } ], "type": "doc" }
Max
8baZM75uapbmweep3RGN
public
contract
1,716,755,923,232
on-april-30th-brown-university-reac
MaxMorehead
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJNd7kHBLlTkwCIfQaCa6Ieo-qvLitBWddnWiyik3yg=s96-c
On April 30th, Brown University reached an agreement with the protesters to hold a vote on divestment. What happens now?
sn370pv0i7e
null
89.593854
NO
689cff6fee8e
knkrmcoackj
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4jafdbysoia", "label": "noney", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " =( ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it's very bleak. the theatrical business is in very rough shape. people are trying way too hard to find tidy causal reasons, when the default should be that most movies don't do very well in theaters these days and the rare exceptions are the ones worth studying (& don't assume you can copy it, often it's more idiosyncratic/random than that).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "seeing Furiosa myself tmrw (had to wait for a friend), looking forward to it! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
OrLYZ4e5J99n0pGDJzlE
public
contract
1,716,756,012,767
how-much-will-furiosa-a-mad-max-sag
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend?
4jafdbysoia
null
1,982.547854
NO
1735c14f6f16
jxtuf81mne
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pbl19s75o3", "label": "MaxMorehead", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " looks right. and i think i could hear some protesters on the livestream when i briefly checked. resolves YES ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
8baZM75uapbmweep3RGN
public
contract
1,716,756,058,797
on-april-30th-brown-university-reac
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
On April 30th, Brown University reached an agreement with the protesters to hold a vote on divestment. What happens now?
sn370pv0i7e
null
null
null
null
lrxcwcpmyo
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i havent' found anything, and will resolve this NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
8baZM75uapbmweep3RGN
public
contract
1,716,756,088,760
on-april-30th-brown-university-reac
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
On April 30th, Brown University reached an agreement with the protesters to hold a vote on divestment. What happens now?
null
null
131.576054
YES
beaefaa5db37
fvuywc4hu05
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Apparently, I have a habit of beginning to cross streets before looking both ways.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please try not to isekai.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh
UHZxG3Z5TBuScQXYP6Ip
public
contract
1,716,756,393,204
will-i-be-hit-by-a-bike-before-i-gr
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?
null
null
null
null
null
ozr40hvbf8
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9ykmetcc9sa", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the resolution criteria was updated 6 hours ago. This option was added nine hours ago. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's also possible to resolve no without giving yourself a large payout. That's actually the worst part. Dishonest AF.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bubbles
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,756,576,883
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gssh7q2dqtd
null
1,366.858501
YES
59a364c55d2c
al4b6uwb76h
false
1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9nvb7pu5q3t", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alright ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "sits down", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So this first request never was the resolving vote, as only the second dispute (to be voted on the next cycle which starts today) would have that power. So this vote itself is effectively made into a poll that informs voters how to vote in subsequent rounds.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "On top of that, because this vote was so close, it won't meet quorum requirements for either side. So it will roll and go to a re-vote. So today, once reveal period ends and commit period starts again, we'll see the second dispute being voted on (which has power to resolve) + Rolled Vote #1 for the current dispute.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And yeah commit periods and reveal periods last 24 hours from 0 UTC to 0 UTC.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
aenews
iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv
public
contract
1,716,756,791,731
how-will-this-controversial-polymar
aenews
https://firebasestorage.…1ae-07ed3f188eea
How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve?
pj96qbdsz0p
50
-0
NO
null
r9cvhik0m5
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "al4b6uwb76h", "label": "aenews", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " gotcha - thanks for patiently teaching me stuff the last couple of days 🧡", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
iBzWQphneI3X3n0yIkWv
public
contract
1,716,756,950,942
how-will-this-controversial-polymar
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How will this controversial Polymarket about Nikki Haley endorsing Trump before June resolve?
pj96qbdsz0p
50
8,277.286509
YES
null
o7hjbk44be
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rCfP9c7soVNkQhwX3V8lxcJLubN2", "label": "MatthewB", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson should both resolve this YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
Waoe6LYhTZPBCbWKc4wb
public
contract
1,716,757,141,366
will-anyone-run-against-biden-for-t
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will anyone run against Biden for the democratic nomination?
null
0.9
9,239.654827
YES
null
4krf640zjvt
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i68gha26mke", "label": "colorednoise", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " most markets that are Manifold exclusive are pretty irrelevant. Who, apart from people who are in on the joke, cares when some dude is gonna eat ass?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
sDd3yLgtbXZ06tFaE9uq
public
contract
1,716,757,177,611
how-many-questions-are-currently-on
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
How many questions are currently on Manifold for which you'd be willing to pay 1 dollar to see the current prediction?
i68gha26mke
null
null
null
null
olepzywzcaj
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "posts a ridiculously vague question", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "refuses to elaborate", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "leaves", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "OP is a gigachad.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
h7NyHKKDnxTWw759H9Po
public
contract
1,716,757,330,102
will-agi-lead-to-a-utopia-where-all
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will AGI lead to a utopia where all of people's needs and most of their wants are met, or to power concentration?
null
null
null
null
null
632edgxvz2d
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A related numeric market: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/when-will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-in", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/when-will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-in", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz
public
contract
1,716,757,414,593
will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
null
0.204459
181.726679
NO
null
ti9bzyxqp3k
false
BWL3JA6KYWVwkC1A1PJsXytka2f2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What would have to happen for this to resolve to \"No\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Sean Francis-Lyon
1NXMfvFMhOxAMplV0Js1
public
contract
1,716,757,631,457
did-life-start-before-the-earth-for
SeanFrancisLyon
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfESO-f0Zt-L1ZOuVCqv0xdnXdOFFjM3MQmeaL4Q0Texes=s96-c
Did life start before the earth formed?
null
null
null
null
null
m98tarmr4e
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "275 reviews have been logged. Here's what the rollercoaster ride has looked like [1]: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fj6rN0i8aQs.png?alt=media&token=ba1f8ecd-914a-4d7f-8aac-66de21bf9f29", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The black dashed lines are the cutoffs for this market [2]. It almost reached 90.0%, but couldn't quite, and now has been hovering near 89.5% for a bit. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "[1]. These API review counts are sometimes a bit inconsistent, but they should be close.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "[2]. AFAIK, RT does normal rounding, so you need >=90.5% to reach 91%, hence X.5%s are the key cutoffs.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,716,757,642,564
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
9,409.364305
YES
341ff8d448a1
fgl3z7g5zh5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r1NDPSRFWfhC9htdIIwTuegezFI3", "label": "paw", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this resolves to Artem Dovbyk. Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/stats/_/league/esp.1", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/stats/_/league/esp.1", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The season just finished ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
5Mjnymc89Ttzh8tXY0P9
public
contract
1,716,758,252,789
which-player-will-score-the-most-go
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which player will score the most goals in Spanish La Liga during 2023/2024 season?
null
null
2,491.648716
YES
d9843d1756c1
43budyy1mma
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ozr40hvbf8", "label": "Lorelai", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Let’s wait for ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " to weigh in. Would have been better to turn to them last night when the beefing about the resolution criteria turned into advocating frivolous options to force my hand, instead of posting frivolous options.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,758,361,799
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gssh7q2dqtd
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
pg9f8f2gylq
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iz35hnsx1qe", "label": "Lorelai", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " His dad Errol was a narcissistic pathological liar so I wouldn’t trust anything Errol said in interviews about having too much money to close the safe. They were basically middle class and none of the parents’ money was supporting him after he moved to a different continent ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,758,660,898
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
lgq1fdgda18
null
16,896.891596
YES
37f0747697e3
1z5ubz64jrj
false
sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nqwxx1j4umk", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It's converted into free mana when user A goes very negative and user B goes very positive after the market resolves and the loans are paid back. Which is why the loan system was turned off during the real-money pivot. And also why Ian made an emergency fine of Catnee - ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://discordapp.com/channels/915138780216823849/1158528733444055071/1188163136646299750", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://discordapp.com/channels/915138780216823849/1158528733444055071/1188163136646299750", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " - which was in itself a cause of drama.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Randall
afvwEXGxxLov1FO0Ckx5
public
contract
1,716,758,952,943
will-there-be-drama-caused-by-manif
MartinRandall
https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b
Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025?
p7df2qy9oqs
0.636909
63.604757
YES
null
n12j14lvrli
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like my first comment is aging fairly well (don't wanna mislead anyone):", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Let's assume ~350 reviews within 2 weeks of release (Oppenheimer/Barbie reached ~430, this feels closer to John Wick 4 or Spiderverse with ~330. Fury Road only had 259, but RT has expanded the pool of critics a ton since then).", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fqbn_PR04Yh.png?alt=media&token=cffb58a2-9c55-4e42-9f6b-a062ed5a7357", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Furiosa's review count is a bit ahead of John Wick 4 and Across the Spider-Verse at the same point, so the ~350 review guess looks pretty solid.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,716,758,993,309
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
9,409.364305
YES
341ff8d448a1
36t66g75v4v
false
sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nqwxx1j4umk", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " My summary of that situation's wider context, from the time:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm just now following the chain reaction back further. So Ian pissed off traders on daily stock markets, which causes Teddy to rage quit, which misresolves AI doom markets, which causes Catnee to be active, to which causes Ian to piss off AI doom traders, which causes Mira to rage quit.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Which is basically all drama caused by handing out lots of free mana with a \"hope we don't get too much inflation\" mindset and then trying to course correct on an ad-hoc basis.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Randall
afvwEXGxxLov1FO0Ckx5
public
contract
1,716,759,811,370
will-there-be-drama-caused-by-manif
MartinRandall
https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b
Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025?
p7df2qy9oqs
0.636909
63.604757
YES
null
sulh3eeswp
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just found this article about the first one", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.infinitescroll.us/p/ugh-capitalism", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.infinitescroll.us/p/ugh-capitalism", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Plasma Ballin'
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,759,982,570
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
1,185.946396
YES
36508860cdd0
gaybc8vo2dm
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A related numeric question: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/when-will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-in?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/when-will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-in?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ihor Kendiukhov
XcdvE4K4eBeFtjz8SCa8
public
contract
1,716,760,087,165
will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
null
null
null
null
null
jm82cjlnaz
false
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/main/docs/docs/faq.md?plain=1#L196", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/main/docs/docs/faq.md?plain=1#L196", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gabrielle
XkMhtu3gAiLJJrzZuMsW
public
contract
1,716,760,657,221
will-the-typo-expectationt-in-the-m
Gabrielle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
Will the typo "expectationt" in the Manifold FAQ be corrected to "expectation" by August 1st 6:00 PM UTC?
null
null
null
null
null
q7epeoh650h
false
xqZ2EP0YJgY8Xv6ZGGi15mclE2C2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There would be no incentive for them to do so.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
WayStone
W9g7EsFzKERwEDfrlPr3
public
contract
1,716,760,773,778
will-agi-successfully-intervene-and
WayStone
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4MHVB6BEom0H5VfucKHIg0zA_4oW5FQbn4bp0BfZrDiJJTw=s96-c
Will AGI successfully intervene and prevent the collision between the Milky Way Galaxy and the Andromeda Galaxy?
null
0.212701
60.296689
NO
null
g95kbflfc8w
false
gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Ozp0cvVNB0XFOZEPXc1skItAfUM2", "label": "LionelSectri", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " - Man City won the Premier League but did not win another trophy, so this should resolve \"No\".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DAC
IfGQzJICg05fKTIsz50K
public
contract
1,716,760,879,324
will-man-city-win-a-double-or-more
DaAdCh
https://firebasestorage.…909-4a3973c6b0af
Will Man City win a double or more this season?
null
0.781269
6,143.091234
NO
null
k2d2ndkgzmk
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/GazDownright/will-manifold-users-stop-requesting", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaz Downright
XkMhtu3gAiLJJrzZuMsW
public
contract
1,716,760,894,526
will-the-typo-expectationt-in-the-m
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will the typo "expectationt" in the Manifold FAQ be corrected to "expectation" by August 1st 6:00 PM UTC?
null
null
null
null
null
nl7x0nmsdfs
false
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "43budyy1mma", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " We generally want to limit the use of N/A, but mods can still use it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think in this case, you should not have bet it down and then resolved it in your favor, especially following resolution criteria that you just created. At the very least, you should have just resolved it to the true answer (YES in this case, since he is under 100 feet tall) without betting in it. Since this has now become complicated (you bet in it in the opposite direction of others), I'll re-resolve it to N/A, but if this comes up again I'd probably just re-resolve to the true answer.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm going to discuss with other mods what to do for the future for this market (and others like it), but I'd probably recommend that you either resolve trivial answers to the true value without betting in them or set it so that only you can add options to the market, if you're not willing to poll all of the submitted answers.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gabrielle
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,761,206,318
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Gabrielle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gssh7q2dqtd
null
null
null
null
4pd5rpgwkn
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "s1cdkm1ry1g", "label": "MattCWilson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah, that could be considered screenshots of other views.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
komplexkonjugat
YqGpt8xI52LgkFbrmt5M
public
contract
1,716,761,679,330
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-89
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 89)
s1cdkm1ry1g
null
null
null
null
2bbgya1tsee
false
LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "try63o9zaj", "label": "JoshuaB", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Does the context for words like \"woke\" matter? Saying \"I woke up\" probably doesn't cover the definition \"aware of social injustice\" that a few dozen other markets on Manifold reference. I don't think Trump was saying he's \"woke\" now. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
becauseyoudo
CJagZNf5KakAyb9iGWp9
public
contract
1,716,761,733,464
what-words-or-phrases-will-donald-t
becauseyoudo
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531
What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?
pz5bt7tebs
null
54.941581
NO
91077127b7f3
lg9a20jhs8p
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Flight attempt pencilled in for next Wednesday! I've set the market to close at 7am CDT, the start of the launch window (will update when a more precise launch time is known).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Get yer bets in!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
public
contract
1,716,762,155,000
in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
null
0.609238
279.063885
NO
null
kkjqfy4mz3j
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ny23enjbid", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " > normal personal computer operating system", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "that doesn't really clarify. Would an android phone count as a personal computer?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shelvacu
q6mm0yTTdTZBX42jw9gX
public
contract
1,716,762,361,605
what-will-be-the-single-most-impres-958fb5fad966
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
What will be the single most impressive item that I witness at Less Online & Manifest?
twdof0jawl
null
552.012002
YES
f986457a592b
0i9uew7nj5za
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "creator is banned and Kanye doesn't have a campaign or slogan - resolving this market NA", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
HpOI58oU5q56QkeSzCeo
public
contract
1,716,762,457,950
what-will-kanyes-2024-campaign-slog
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
What will Kanye's 2024 campaign slogan be??
null
null
null
null
null
dfncbpi9k5v
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a5i4lbek5j6", "label": "TonyGao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Imagine the extreme case, a market \"This market resolves to the current shown percentage at <specific date and time>\". The best strategy is to buy up all the liquidity at the very last millisecond to make yourself win. You don't want that to be even part of the strategy for this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shelvacu
RTQttQzZdgyHiX5m1zLz
public
contract
1,716,762,598,546
will-i-regret-attending-manifest
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Will I regret attending Manifest?
691bthsyxin
null
null
null
null
4h1u6rrxc02
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Everything reminds me that I should be a vegetarian ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,762,607,981
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
126.413694
YES
bda10a463922
49cfd0sif0o
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/tesla-battery-catches-fire-illinois-shutting-down-highway-hours-report", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/tesla-battery-catches-fire-illinois-shutting-down-highway-hours-report", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.tesla-fire.com/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.tesla-fire.com/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/person-dies-after-tesla-crashes-bursts-into-flames-in-weston/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/person-dies-after-tesla-crashes-bursts-into-flames-in-weston/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
0ejY45VzB7kf0xecWtXD
public
contract
1,716,762,624,733
what-will-happen-by-eoy-2024-add-re
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
2,137.07248
YES
5b4917f4c1ae
53k6qcox56j
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sulh3eeswp", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah, l think this critique sounds plausible when it comes to how people talk about capitalism. But enshittification is a different thing entirely.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,762,659,184
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
sulh3eeswp
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
gf2xz1eyzg
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,762,975,310
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
1,262.491056
NO
ef66cc22eb16
8sj7yeko8yc
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
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FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,762,979,134
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
t97lqd6t2wd
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 51", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: gf2xz1eyzg, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4044400", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4044400", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature b3d77e69cd9587b5345c409c0531b39e2f8e811fea8b2cc85d30502696c515723053920144b59873953f85d327d614c807755d3f810607f04ffb6c08afe13656798916ea2baa2e67d46c0caf8cef9c9b582937e6c70b93ffe0e116421f91e994)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,763,025,338
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
o2f9rjdrxmg
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
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Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,763,030,195
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
1,262.491056
NO
ef66cc22eb16
t96xc1xbfa
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
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FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,763,034,359
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
pdfyc40zavd
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 44", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: o2f9rjdrxmg, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4044402", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4044402", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature ae6cc721cc0ecce85775390fe9297d874ae89be080c4274076822c489a59b7a2957a007cce3a5782dae12aad0e32bd421415a016f8969480eb8eba998df3dc0e404a7e22e57a4ccdcb6aedb97d924041d0689565fa5485fbe18fa8770044f157)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,716,763,088,592
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
n3bodf0ok8f
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "s1cdkm1ry1g", "label": "MattCWilson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://imgur.com/a/C0MU39L", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://imgur.com/a/C0MU39L", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No luxuries for sale that we don't already have", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No niter sources in (revealed part of) northern hemisphere", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "doc" }
komplexkonjugat
YqGpt8xI52LgkFbrmt5M
public
contract
1,716,763,364,997
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-89
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 89)
s1cdkm1ry1g
null
null
null
null
y2biynvoj0g
false
iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What territory are we considering for the textbooks to be published and used in?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JuJumper
aoFVJLgtMkMsc3HHVIwD
public
contract
1,716,763,495,133
what-news-stories-of-the-2020s-will
JuJumper
https://firebasestorage.…19a-b9b702a3816e
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
null
null
null
null
null
pmifiqz8wl
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xyursz1sta", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Can you give us a post mortem on this and what your experience was, and any tips you have for creators? Thank you!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
vuoMr6LMdDZ94zQJ3BXL
public
contract
1,716,763,525,827
f1-who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
F1: Who will finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
fvwh1m1ofpe
null
70.649258
YES
4d6c2b73133c
vtaoycpgsm
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Next turn:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-90", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
komplexkonjugat
YqGpt8xI52LgkFbrmt5M
public
contract
1,716,764,010,714
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-89
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 89)
null
null
null
null
null
z7yw7l35tvs
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it feels like it will be complicated, the left will want more control over ai, the right will want it pushed out of places", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Campbell Hutcheson
ZDRx34sOTLeTDRuSPpRQ
public
contract
1,716,764,208,274
which-political-party-will-be-the-t
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Which political party will be the "tough on AI" party?
null
null
null
null
null
qjxro8cp4eb
false
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "42tahofz8dk", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I’d say they’re talking about being able to decode what a dolphins is saying to another dolphin. With octopuses I’m less sure. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
keltan
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,764,336,373
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
keltan
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
42tahofz8dk
null
null
null
null
0okvvkzg684k
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The BLM protests wouldn't have counted right because 25 people didn't die and no 5000 people got arrested? Correct?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
seqOr3Z8N02eHHCeldO4
public
contract
1,716,764,437,952
will-there-be-largescale-rioting-in-721f0882dfd8
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
s7e7wuele1a
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i put this at 30%, it basically requires an ai correction of some kind in august", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Campbell Hutcheson
xrtZcU4n5uFRPNNr1Cos
public
contract
1,716,764,440,827
will-the-highest-price-for-nvidia-n
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Will the highest price for Nvidia NVDA stock for the year be in July 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
uij330fs4i
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qjxro8cp4eb", "label": "keltan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The wording seems to point to human-animal conversation, despite what's in the screenshot:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "“Talk to animals” here is that scientists are widely understood by the public to be in communication with a non human animal/s.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also the title as of now is \"Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,765,025,118
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
42tahofz8dk
50
63.542212
NO
null
0gqfjt51q3lj
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "we’re all rooting for ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "a6Q2OWAyDhhBIj1WJinfBqSfxjh2", "label": "NateS", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ben Shindel
L3EWzmjuuhwdNKrdWQPJ
public
contract
1,716,765,178,770
who-will-win-the-2024-world-series
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 WSOP World Series of Poker Texas Holdem Main Event?
null
null
null
null
null
p6ungs0fags
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0gqfjt51q3lj", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i assume you’re not playing the main event right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
L3EWzmjuuhwdNKrdWQPJ
public
contract
1,716,765,283,785
who-will-win-the-2024-world-series
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will win the 2024 WSOP World Series of Poker Texas Holdem Main Event?
0gqfjt51q3lj
null
155.937662
NO
a8d9023c6ca9
h359q7dk4hn
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qjxro8cp4eb", "label": "keltan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " But regardless of the actual criteria for this question, can you give me a sample transcript of what a conversation between two dolphins might look like? Not necessarily the most impressive one, or the median one, just one that's likely to have happened before.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,765,331,662
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
42tahofz8dk
50
63.542212
NO
null
9kqsgg85zvs
false
y6XnizFpsVZkdyaWtEoyfaFx76X2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y2biynvoj0g", "label": "JuJumper", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I hadn’t explicitly considered, but my inclination is to say that any textbook that is translated into several languages would be a good start. I would probably want to privilege the more widely spoken languages too.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris
aoFVJLgtMkMsc3HHVIwD
public
contract
1,716,765,560,671
what-news-stories-of-the-2020s-will
Christopher2001
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNlmrsot8RrVW-AF9wedqd40iHu1i2INhUsNnbvQnrJ74=s96-c
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
y2biynvoj0g
null
167.93351
YES
1b0ae9c6e21e
gy4jndpzei7
false
28c5p2EeLGMMRhICPUbpDm2A2il2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fgzugm9qlst", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm going to chalk this up to weather and not count it for this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Vitor
9XDdPaWKzw943rUoDkig
public
contract
1,716,765,773,934
number-of-major-incidents-involving
VitorBosshard
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2E37JwpTiA4tIhpgQ_jOAY4uQ2Vgv3jJXF8rIs=s96-c
Number of major incidents involving Boeing planes until end of 2025
fgzugm9qlst
null
431.705324
NO
5e6f2c374173
nri34x7rgnm
false
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h359q7dk4hn", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Sure! Here’s what I predict a dolphin conversation might sound like.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bob: Play? What to play? Play with me?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alice: Hungry. Need food.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bob: I know food. I know where fish are. Follow me?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alice: I will follow", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
keltan
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,765,904,476
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
keltan
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
42tahofz8dk
null
null
null
null
amvloxaidmt
false
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2bbgya1tsee", "label": "becauseyoudo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " From what I understand of this market, he just needs to say the word, regardless of the definition and context", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
CJagZNf5KakAyb9iGWp9
public
contract
1,716,765,909,954
what-words-or-phrases-will-donald-t
JoshuaB
https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd
What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?
pz5bt7tebs
null
4,465.345056
YES
04b0f43fb740
hvow7huwks
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe the question should say stockfish not \"all chess bots\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel
1Es6BcA3sdaqBLbKSHu4
public
contract
1,716,766,093,365
by-when-will-kenshin9000-or-anyone
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
By when will Kenshin9000 (or anyone else) “defeat all chess bots” using LLMs? (Permanent)
null
null
null
null
null
nj6rlncf2z
false
0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uij330fs4i", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " You’re right. An oversight by me. I should have rechecked my wording before answering.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To be in conversation with an animal would be to give it information even if it is untrained to revive that information. For example, “there is food over there” and then we watch the animal go and eat the food it previously didn’t know about.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
keltan
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,766,109,167
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
keltan
https://firebasestorage.…f46-d899cb67c45b
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
42tahofz8dk
null
null
null
null
oah86ibk1kp
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nri34x7rgnm", "label": "keltan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The bolded (edit: and with brackets) words are the words I'm curious about. Just like with human languages, it's unlikely that these map 1-for-1, so what are the smallest units of meaning that contain each one?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bob: Play? [", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "What to]", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " play? Play with me?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alice: Hungry. Need food.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bob: I know food. I know [", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "where]", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " fish are. Follow me?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Alice: I [", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "will]", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " follow", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,766,260,859
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
42tahofz8dk
50
63.542212
NO
null
fuqkolck53v
false
vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The fact that people agree with EY's take of \"superintelligence:humans vs humans:bugs is a bad comparison\" should mean they disagree with this, right? What am I missing?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
shadowyzephyr
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,766,281,202
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
ShadowyZephyr
https://firebasestorage.…efa-a11864a76e60
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
358.729483
NO
08f3bd80933e
albpkex9t9d
false
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If I had known Manifold was open source when I made this poll (which is obvious to anyone who thinks about it for more than a moment, but, alas, I did not) I would have made the deadline a day/week from now instead of 2 months, since that would be more interesting.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The above mistake, my curiosity, and the fact that I have 1 datapoint supporting the belief that the FAQ has more than 1 typo all motivated me to run it through a spellchecker. That belief was right:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "overshooting -> overshoot", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "come -> comes (the first usage of the word 'come' in the document)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "recieve -> receive", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "compy -> comply", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Markets -> market (second bullet point under ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "How does resolving markets work?)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "and of course,", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "expectationt -> expectation", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'll try to PR a fix to these typos after resolution. I won't make another typo market because I already did that.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Interrobang
XkMhtu3gAiLJJrzZuMsW
public
contract
1,716,766,758,346
will-the-typo-expectationt-in-the-m
Interrobang
https://firebasestorage.…99e-a7d5079f13c5
Will the typo "expectationt" in the Manifold FAQ be corrected to "expectation" by August 1st 6:00 PM UTC?
null
50
235.612343
YES
null
wor6nhiolwb
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nj6rlncf2z", "label": "keltan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To be in conversation with an animal would be to give it information even if it is untrained to revive that information. For example, “there is food over there” and then we watch the animal go and eat the food it previously didn’t know about.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That seems like an excellent definition for communication. But I don't think that this is what a conversation is. For one, the interlocutor needs to respond back.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is \"there is food over there\" a single discrete symbol? Or can you say \"over there food is\" and have the dog understand you? If the dog only understands isolated symbols that can't combine, it's not clear that your understanding of the meaning has the same significance for the dog. The dog might just think \"my owner thinks it's exciting over there\" and then realize \"oh, there's food!\". If that's what's happening, I also don't think it could be called a conversation, because you wouldn't actually be understanding each other.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,766,950,265
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
42tahofz8dk
50
63.542212
NO
null
1ddf0vdh453
false
foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7e0G3BfuZ9.png?alt=media&token=2d5c90b8-1397-4f39-91e0-004c132fb832", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Punished Furry
Jpoggoupth18tRTZG5rp
public
contract
1,716,766,967,074
will-the-anything-else-exclusive-pa
PunishedFurry
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c
Will the Anything Else Exclusive Patreon Stream with Lonerbox reach 60 concurrent viewers?
null
50
94.465832
NO
null
055xpcjyhdv
false
1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wish instead of market creators we could rate other traders I would rate ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "GTQUpFr6t6f3w74ArLgHsyiQcPC2", "label": "Rasmus1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 0/5 for sniping this before me REE", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duN
Jpoggoupth18tRTZG5rp
public
contract
1,716,767,074,439
will-the-anything-else-exclusive-pa
dgga
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc
Will the Anything Else Exclusive Patreon Stream with Lonerbox reach 60 concurrent viewers?
null
50
1,059.285602
YES
null
cywu6ez00l
false
GTQUpFr6t6f3w74ArLgHsyiQcPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "055xpcjyhdv", "label": "dgga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " rate deez", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rasmus 🍕
Jpoggoupth18tRTZG5rp
public
contract
1,716,767,134,047
will-the-anything-else-exclusive-pa
Rasmus1
https://firebasestorage.…c56-5484f675fff7
Will the Anything Else Exclusive Patreon Stream with Lonerbox reach 60 concurrent viewers?
055xpcjyhdv
50
3,560.855462
YES
null
4ww4xw0dq6w
false
1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cywu6ez00l", "label": "Rasmus1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " pineapple/pizza", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duN
Jpoggoupth18tRTZG5rp
public
contract
1,716,767,205,899
will-the-anything-else-exclusive-pa
dgga
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc
Will the Anything Else Exclusive Patreon Stream with Lonerbox reach 60 concurrent viewers?
055xpcjyhdv
50
1,059.285602
YES
null
j0jewx4uewh
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "isscjmb2luf", "label": "Fion", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " poll gap definitely ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "could", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " narrow. That would be the normal thing to happen. My sense though, is that the Tories have set themselves on an implosion course and don't seem to know what to do about it. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh Wilkes
LqEkMSjCClC7QpeR75Am
public
contract
1,716,767,669,926
what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-u
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
What will be true of the Manifold UK General Election Projection?
rug2o732xlf
null
null
null
null
lwkdt1tqxc
false
OFGIpCFT69fNGtojNGf1z6nHg4y1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bdTzYzt6yKjmf3t0kfHC", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " What does 26+6 refer to?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MF
sDPDmEk1y1aZVQXsCqv2
public
contract
1,716,767,812,385
will-uk-rejoin-the-european-union-b
costlySignal
https://firebasestorage.…5b3-7ef68a5f5838
Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?
bdTzYzt6yKjmf3t0kfHC
null
null
null
null
6xgns20m2l2
false
DT5s95ZLQOfi5k5iyElZgLsOTOf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7s17hxf8x93", "label": "ErikBjareholt", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the phrasing is also unfortunate because it has a \"the\" in the title where I think it meant either \"by\" or \"on\".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
rogs
781x8buSmeM9CTkpk5dh
public
contract
1,716,767,858,514
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a-47f9daaf241b
rogs
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYyFxdAea-jwoF7K40J4pxxmxIil7mUb9l31tRtUQ=s96-c
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF the May 23rd, 2024?
7s17hxf8x93
null
null
null
null
jndjph3veu
false
M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f9k6xtqxs97", "label": "TonyPepperoni", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Realmoney trading was #1 on my wishlist. I just don't get why they nuked loans. Now any market that won't resolve immediately is pointless and I fail to see how this change will make them any money.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lexer
EU0oZzaUp2eOGaICqPtp
public
contract
1,716,767,889,324
are-the-new-changes-to-manifold-pos
Lexer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c
Are the new changes to manifold positive or negative?
f9k6xtqxs97
null
null
null
null
6513y4vpqyn
false
M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think we might have our answer already...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fjw-fBj0xjJ.png?alt=media&token=d38c073a-f28b-42f1-b77a-e190889fea44", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7Wr5lMMuXm.png?alt=media&token=bb74d671-a99b-462c-bb88-9e70a24c85ed", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lexer
9YK9Gx5savqlT6UBxjel
public
contract
1,716,767,995,119
what-manifold-users-will-leave-mani
Lexer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c
what manifold users will leave Manifold as a result of the "Big Pivot"
null
null
null
null
null
1asnvkj82ufh
false
HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "36t66g75v4v", "label": "MartinRandall", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Just want to point out that Mira did not rage quit. She was preparing her exit for a long time. (But the Catnee shenanigans did provide motivation to pull the trigger, so I don't disagree with the essence of your post)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Odoacre
afvwEXGxxLov1FO0Ckx5
public
contract
1,716,768,064,760
will-there-be-drama-caused-by-manif
Odoacre
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a
Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025?
p7df2qy9oqs
0.636909
147.248627
YES
null
qfkfnqgliif
false
DT5s95ZLQOfi5k5iyElZgLsOTOf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would the Bing-replacement have to be something built by OpenAI for it to count?", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If they're still using Bing, but it has realtime data does that count? If they're using some other search provider (e.g. DuckDuckGo), does that count?", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Based on the title, I would have guessed that YES on this question meant OpenAI is building the indexer itself (so they're not relying on any 3rd party search provider), but based on the actual text of the description it sounds like it's just about whether they're going to have realtime data or not.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Cam you clarify which interpretation is right — is this about whether OpenAI is going to be running the indexer themselves, or is it about realtime data?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
rogs
E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb
public
contract
1,716,768,313,468
is-openai-building-a-search-engine
rogs
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYyFxdAea-jwoF7K40J4pxxmxIil7mUb9l31tRtUQ=s96-c
Is OpenAI building a search engine?
null
null
null
null
null
xfwbuirxzyf
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nl7x0nmsdfs", "label": "Gabrielle", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thank you for thoughtful response and resolution. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For the record, I argued against the removal of N/A while it was still under discussion. Including a reference to a market I N/A’d that had been recognized as a good resolution. If I’d been able to N/A the answers that were posted around the time of the discussion below, I would have.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,768,318,205
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gssh7q2dqtd
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
ear4ztvoxk7
false
8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KtPmLJx9J1NuV3fVGrdCIEFjJj52", "label": "NathanYoung", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " If you were referring to the old GPT-4 (based on the fact that you created the market back in 2023), you should resolve the market now. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Sss
FcwCNUb1bnJMst3Z14mM
public
contract
1,716,768,333,116
will-china-make-a-llm-as-good-as-gp
Sss19971997
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
null
0.8
7.596129
YES
null
w7h52chcb3
false
8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9rtugytgmph", "label": "StephenMcAleese", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 70B is not a frontier model, but 400B will be. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Sss
1rF6Kxt2ySIk5PqVPKZu
public
contract
1,716,768,397,802
will-dpo-or-an-explicitly-dpobased
Sss19971997
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c
Will DPO or an Explicitly DPO-based Technique be Used to Train a Public Frontier Lab LLM Before Jan 1 2025?
9rtugytgmph
0.68549
81.901942
YES
null
jt9rihsc1si
false
M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there any way for us to create permanent markets?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lexer
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,716,768,448,241
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
Lexer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
null
0.409489
768.226255
NO
null
ouxkznmmeec
false
vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g4gwpyax3s", "label": "Ibozz91", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Cimorene's been mostly into Bloons Tower Defense lately, she's also been playing Hades and Super Mario Galaxy occasionally, I haven't really seen her playing BotW in a while.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mike Blume
2UNpGEanwbFybQWDDbFb
public
contract
1,716,768,908,138
botw-stands-for-breath-of-the-wild
MichaelBlume
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c
BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099?
g4gwpyax3s
0.66298
752.72089
NO
null
at04dt540g
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just to reassure folks that this would have NAd anyway even if I haven't NAd it early, I'm now running 25m 5ks routinely:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9aOcsuY-iY.jpg?alt=media&token=a9f2bf44-e965-4c9e-a0e1-ec22a246135c", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
8FQKm3LfQp1DjRnxiHbO
public
contract
1,716,769,521,630
will-i-be-able-to-run-5km-in-under
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will I be able to run 5km in under 25 minutes, with avg heart rate below 190bpm after I stop taking Clonidine?
fm4q1791fd
null
null
null
null
75azj571nzp
false
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The only ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "maybe", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " one is one of the Jimmy Carter death markets. Everything else is on Polymarket, PI, Kalshi, etc.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Magnus
sDd3yLgtbXZ06tFaE9uq
public
contract
1,716,769,553,478
how-many-questions-are-currently-on
thepurplebull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
How many questions are currently on Manifold for which you'd be willing to pay 1 dollar to see the current prediction?
null
null
null
null
null
5xdlieeakhh
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Interesting article: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/campus-protests-agreements-divestment-israel.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/campus-protests-agreements-divestment-israel.html", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No university agreed outright to divestment [from Israel], which was the rallying cry of student protests across the country.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I know ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "label": "mattyb", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you're burnt out on this question, but would still appreciate an update or a decision to defer to mods.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
3YmP16rLbG0m6E2jHDUY
public
contract
1,716,770,083,175
will-any-university-announce-a-dive
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will any university announce a divestment from Israel by June 2024?
null
0.746471
1,250.725581
NO
null
as5ktxbzfrv
false
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kxwse6bfstq", "label": "notune", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Are we within 90% of the mmlu score? It doesn’t have to outperform, just get 90%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lars Doucet
ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs
public
contract
1,716,770,293,331
will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able-2146d4144ade
LarsDoucet
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025?
dtwejmcpmvk
null
null
null
null
xihhdrp9yxo
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " agreed with Ben here, it seems like all the relevant things have happened for the 2023 contest?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
3MdLtoKVfTfxaNnk9cvc
public
contract
1,716,770,527,452
in-the-acx-2023-prediction-contest
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will there be controversy over whether someone playing on blind mode cheated?
6xk9inifvas
0.098494
430.138738
NO
null
7fg0daknoto
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xIkN4EvTFLOtiKnk3Zo66Gp3DyP2", "label": "AliKapadia", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " want to resolve this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
vCQfkdFx1EGl82AfYf4I
public
contract
1,716,770,609,596
did-manifold-previously-have-ui-tha
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Did Manifold previously have UI that would let you scroll and make predictions really easily?
null
0.878505
70.895236
YES
null
1pey54px5ot
false
yZ4vp93rmQfBXllZUiI2WKNJaeF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "believe ref. wolves win", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ElectricSteam
ImedMnoPP3ppgsczC8LL
public
contract
1,716,770,752,446
which-nba-team-will-win-game-3-of-t-85a45408f74b
ElectricSteam
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNq3o7W1unNrbg962fUXzL_KPTLhynNsWcqusZ7gHi-2M=s96-c
Which NBA team will win Game 3 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks?
null
null
164.460641
NO
8b0b24ee816c
kldot8xdqte
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-signs-deal-openai-iphones-3446254/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-signs-deal-openai-iphones-3446254/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
robm
ddnFjBFfOh2ZRtXxdklJ
public
contract
1,716,770,819,855
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI during WWDC 2024?
null
0.718111
67.236295
YES
null
2d83drbawr4
false
M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "85thwynqcp4", "label": "mariopasquato", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I would give you better odds for a marriage given the amount of effort and thought you've put into buying some indium", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
NivlacM
ZzkZmeAbKsdWFQslmIQX
public
contract
1,716,771,297,413
if-i-buy-physical-indium-for-invest
NivlacM
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c
If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?
c5asr2il9u
0.524753
84.800612
YES
null
3vub9u73fxe
false
M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l3c2aweom6", "label": "RuzgarSanli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " got it. I am know as afraid of BCS3L-1 as I am afraid of yogurt. AKA I'm now less afraid of BCS3L-1", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
NivlacM
ogQdVvzpTH2j3W5HdOY1
public
contract
1,716,771,473,600
will-lantern-bioworks-lumina-treatm-f33e1b4d0184
NivlacM
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c
Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?
l3c2aweom6
null
null
null
null
tqkzphf981
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's really annoying and confusing that Labour are coloured blue. Labour should be red, Tories blue, SNP yellow and Lib Dems orange.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
nsawASNJZmkQDwXAPryY
public
contract
1,716,771,593,418
uk-general-election-which-party-wil-30e459c43962
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
UK General Election: Which party will win in Midlothian?
null
null
null
null
null
qntti0y77w
false
M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seconding statements that this market should be voided. Resolution criteria make zero sense.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lexer
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,771,694,056
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Lexer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
125.867646
YES
b6e4ade018ab
z3eewk2sf2
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm too poor to create an answer atm but coming up:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A few people with very high quality of life (NO) -OR- A much much larger population with very low but positive quality of life (YES)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,772,069,780
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
null
null
1,631.152094
YES
3ef25a41deb3
8smmxbgvl42
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z3eewk2sf2", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " funny, a friend suggested I add this exact scenario when I told him about the market recently!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,772,128,429
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
z3eewk2sf2
null
321.10921
NO
cae724d28376
rwrhrxqvc1
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "why did options resolve yes prematurely? it says only 5 options resolves yes.... i die because of this...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "and res criteria said dumb options would resolve no 😆 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,772,266,000
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
5,622.398255
NO
be5da8403dad
zsljnr9cwzm
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p6ungs0fags", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " not planning to, will be in nz", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
L3EWzmjuuhwdNKrdWQPJ
public
contract
1,716,772,562,363
who-will-win-the-2024-world-series
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Who will win the 2024 WSOP World Series of Poker Texas Holdem Main Event?
0gqfjt51q3lj
null
96.521933
YES
1dd85026dfce
4o1m79yv0w4
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "hm - actually, it's slightly different:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "would you rather have a society with a very large number of barely happy people or a very small number of extremely happy people", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,772,808,504
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
z3eewk2sf2
null
321.10921
NO
cae724d28376
kdfn2wsem
false
0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Everything on this series ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/news/transport-in-south-korea", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/news/transport-in-south-korea", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " all created by me, I would like to pay and they are Manifold-exclusive, but people don't bet on them and their probability is likely inaccurate.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Seo Sanghyeon
sDd3yLgtbXZ06tFaE9uq
public
contract
1,716,772,822,913
how-many-questions-are-currently-on
SanghyeonSeo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c
How many questions are currently on Manifold for which you'd be willing to pay 1 dollar to see the current prediction?
null
null
null
null
null
8d4jcaka2j
false
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " i think this can resolve now?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Qoiuoiuoiu
pGRQJykpWMYEKOkWu5Pc
public
contract
1,716,772,831,528
will-gonzalo-lira-remain-alive-and
Qoiuoiuoiu
https://firebasestorage.…2ea-1eb85c642bfa
Will Gonzalo Lira remain alive and free for the next 30 days?
null
0.078405
28.733939
NO
null
29n9wap27pi
false
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/263615/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-brazil/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/263615/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-brazil/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2.9%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Qoiuoiuoiu
JGKCchNilhUsW9raQMTp
public
contract
1,716,772,968,540
will-brazils-gdp-growth-rate-exceed
Qoiuoiuoiu
https://firebasestorage.…2ea-1eb85c642bfa
Will Brazil's GDP [real] growth rate exceed 3% in 2023?
null
0.469542
21.516298
YES
null