id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
eq8oafn1c3g | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "At any time, or at market close? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dan | liO81A8ROlMc3gLKPK2D | public | contract | 1,716,795,259,453 | will-this-market-have-a-greater-num | DanMan314 | Will this market have a greater number of traders than percentage odds by June 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
kqfisyihwph | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Dan | OrQrgEkzgXjU1NDsgQyb | public | contract | 1,716,795,463,250 | will-the-earning-limit-for-partners | DanMan314 | Will the earning limit for partners of $3000 per quarter be removed after the first Partnership period? | null | null | null | null | null | |
pgpu6bxgdpa | false | RDb6F1HdVFZsyu94eCWTTHV3Jym1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Jérôme 2024 | JSSf0Mglt4sQpUEG6piO | public | contract | 1,716,795,882,925 | will-the-open-water-swimming-events | JeromeAgostini | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteZvC87SWT5_sCz1MIvj3gLMGYPf2Cl61q5VyIX9ykSYi4=s96-c | Will the open water swimming events be able to take place in the Seine river for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games? | null | 0.795881 | 0 | NO | null |
i5qfjxga5b | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2rhfsnxwprz",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6 | public | contract | 1,716,796,014,132 | share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental) | 2rhfsnxwprz | 0.640786 | -0 | YES | null |
zwxsloqbxb9 | false | wafjm1hIwwRSzKmZd8s9MAH2qF32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "i4NAhXYkNwUzso19bCuQs6aKJKe2",
"label": "BhaSh",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Aditya Gupta | 0RgaCypMFQwsulbv0amP | public | contract | 1,716,796,093,318 | which-ipl-team-will-win | AdityaGupta4830 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbP2SEivBqEg1hTuRbZsvsjl3_Cp6D6eqx-U_XnxfQ=s96-c | which ipl team will win | null | null | 756.39393 | NO | 4a5f6533ec16 |
jmskt360izh | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lang... | Fedor | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,796,887,361 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | Fedor | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | null | null | null | null | null | |
iw16lt3pdq | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Important market 💰 📈 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | poXj2r4HOqAmeM35MJKH | public | contract | 1,716,797,166,333 | will-openphil-think-it-is-better-to | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will OpenPhil think it is better to spend mana creating EA prediction markets at $1 each or donate it to EA LTFF? | null | null | null | null | null |
36z83yun1og | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Economics, and anything else that might be established, is not a Nobel Prize, at least not like the \"proper\" ones. The money for those does not come ... | Bruno | HaSLBtsijqp77OjpRGKE | public | contract | 1,716,797,645,098 | will-taylor-swift-ever-win-a-nobel | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Taylor Swift ever win a Nobel Prize? | null | null | null | null | null |
ks91zemvfu | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Partly inspired by ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | Fedor | fSEVTsWwt1uBR1rgPhLq | public | contract | 1,716,797,688,726 | will-the-sec-sue-or-settle-with-cai | Fedor | Will the SEC sue or settle with Caitlyn Jenner? | null | 50 | 437.559324 | NO | null | |
1fka3r0usnm | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "eq8oafn1c3g",
"label": "DanMan314",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | liO81A8ROlMc3gLKPK2D | public | contract | 1,716,797,932,688 | will-this-market-have-a-greater-num | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will this market have a greater number of traders than percentage odds by June 2024? | eq8oafn1c3g | 0.303258 | 20.838804 | NO | null |
rdjukovp2a | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "banned creator, limited traders, and incomplete criteria - I'm going to NA this market as it's showing up on the home feed again due to algorithm chang... | stefanie | UyHF8LvRT6sYv6VbimrY | public | contract | 1,716,798,385,723 | how-far-we-are-from-agi | shankypanky | How far we are from AGI? | null | null | null | null | null | |
7poeu9dc8dc | false | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9kqsgg85zvs",
"label": "ChrisThomas",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | JuJumper | aoFVJLgtMkMsc3HHVIwD | public | contract | 1,716,798,747,269 | what-news-stories-of-the-2020s-will | JuJumper | What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s? | y2biynvoj0g | null | null | null | null | |
899o9exolnp | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "At first reading I thought \"members\" meant \"Justices/officials of the Court\". Like, one of them ragequits.",
"type": "text"
}
... | Bruno | tPnJsmj4IdBQd8eQtXy2 | public | contract | 1,716,798,792,063 | if-the-icc-brings-charges-against-n | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
68c8vv56jxs | false | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolution is too early, SEC charged Kardashian over 15 months after she did her pump and dump. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"t... | Tony Gao | fSEVTsWwt1uBR1rgPhLq | public | contract | 1,716,799,744,553 | will-the-sec-sue-or-settle-with-cai | TonyGao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c | Will the SEC sue or settle with Caitlyn Jenner? | null | null | null | null | null |
g00w3wzoro | false | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "z1lifxrroxa",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | AdamK | 867yKyPMlaUVKjX9U8DE | public | contract | 1,716,799,753,091 | will-humanity-exit-the-semianarchic | AdamK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035? | z1lifxrroxa | null | null | null | null |
qmr11o4i5ai | false | Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0d68xpqt2amr",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | AdamK | 867yKyPMlaUVKjX9U8DE | public | contract | 1,716,799,804,275 | will-humanity-exit-the-semianarchic | AdamK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c | Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035? | 0d68xpqt2amr | null | null | null | null |
ess0zenlbfv | false | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "899o9exolnp",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | AVS | tPnJsmj4IdBQd8eQtXy2 | public | contract | 1,716,800,424,508 | if-the-icc-brings-charges-against-n | AVS | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030? | 899o9exolnp | null | 92.50034 | NO | e5ea923f37eb |
x73m1zzvhye | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nl7x0nmsdfs",
"label": "Gabrielle",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,800,959,621 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | gssh7q2dqtd | null | 1,366.858501 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
ei3lxqr23su | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "iz35hnsx1qe",
"label": "Lorelai",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,801,857,503 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,366.858501 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
6h60k00eetv | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,801,938,486 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | x3b0lpdqnj | null | 1,366.858501 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
6nod0604la | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | aenews | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,802,874,761 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | aenews | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | null | 50 | 422.16064 | YES | null | |
g6oi36my959 | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ei3lxqr23su",
"label": "Lorelai",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Shaked Koplewitz | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,802,976,640 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 77.032493 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 |
noacugnq4i | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "68c8vv56jxs",
"label": "TonyGao",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Fedor | fSEVTsWwt1uBR1rgPhLq | public | contract | 1,716,803,880,415 | will-the-sec-sue-or-settle-with-cai | Fedor | Will the SEC sue or settle with Caitlyn Jenner? | 68c8vv56jxs | 50 | 437.559324 | NO | null | |
cvsq2vfsb4 | false | pcKH6SR7QwcKlJ7HatHxj4Vliuh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "o12m5ff299",
"label": "NivlacM",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | neon | tSmI97iXzTCHLh61JPTs | public | contract | 1,716,803,912,738 | will-ross-ulbricht-be-pardoned-or-h | Neon150d | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3VblM7L4F1ghruWfqx2j91HsfVQ88bE4-HMPOffMmdA=s96-c | Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025? | o12m5ff299 | null | null | null | null |
fnv4ptxj1ma | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6nod0604la",
"label": "aenews",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Fedor | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,804,652,172 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | Fedor | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | 6nod0604la | null | null | null | null | |
o85to5hxhsr | false | UrJO0EwjkKfVCvpipmVzMaLDmYS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Kind of weird that by just giving the new model a new version name OpenAI has now made this very unlikely.",
"type": "text"
}
]... | Diego Ardila | JA41XZQd377osOk4qE94 | public | contract | 1,716,804,795,491 | will-there-be-another-decrease-for-20d520a8444c | DiegoArdila | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKkviNeEPlRnoM1Akw2kRpyxDGj5YpOEMLnZIqyle5YnBg=s96-c | Will there be another decrease for the input/output token pricing of GPT4 turbo (API) by OpenAI before July 24? | null | 0.696056 | 14.500422 | YES | null |
nn3tbqsekw | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "g6oi36my959",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,804,972,475 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,366.858501 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
xtgqaucwyg8 | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nn3tbqsekw",
"label": "Lorelai",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Shaked Koplewitz | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,805,591,660 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 77.032493 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 |
9aaw00sm3xg | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xtgqaucwyg8",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,806,189,526 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
5shr17j59ka | false | 1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fnv4ptxj1ma",
"label": "Fedor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | aenews | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,806,424,097 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | aenews | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | 6nod0604la | 50 | 422.16064 | YES | null | |
y419m8nros | false | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Although I agree and think it's unlikely (I don't bet on my own markets) he will meet this deadline - this should be interesting:",
"type": "... | vVv | tqKZD3jRNXzEqiIRUsxC | public | contract | 1,716,806,750,020 | will-xelon-musk-achieve-agi-by-next | vVv | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year? | null | null | null | null | null |
g40tc688a0u | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9aaw00sm3xg",
"label": "Lorelai",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Shaked Koplewitz | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,806,888,126 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 77.032493 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 |
xd8ttcvvpcj | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "g40tc688a0u",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,807,671,535 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
g1mltf6d6rn | false | j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2",
"label": "SirSalty",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Jim Hays | mjDMESDUCFIb98edVMpd | public | contract | 1,716,808,393,105 | will-donald-trump-contest-and-win-t | JimHays | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c | Will Donald Trump win primaries and have a chance at contesting the 2024 US Elections? | null | 0.45 | 2,270.133229 | NO | null |
t7t320wqakr | false | XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How does this resolve if there is a minority government with no formal coalition (e.g. confidence and supply)?",
"type": "text"
}
... | Fion | 2R6bRRrSiVFj2I0A9dXQ | public | contract | 1,716,809,355,877 | in-the-next-uk-general-election-wil | Fion | In the next UK general election, will the party with the most MPs need to form a coalition? | null | null | null | null | null | |
g9cm25zu4nl | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xd8ttcvvpcj",
"label": "Lorelai",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Shaked Koplewitz | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,809,425,523 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 77.032493 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 |
9fhuwp61t17 | false | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "b61z8qu0s3",
"label": "CampbellHutcheson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Martin Randall | d7TRl5aRU5jumgSc2g2L | public | contract | 1,716,809,721,634 | if-we-survive-general-artificial-in | MartinRandall | If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? | b61z8qu0s3 | null | 169.659148 | YES | b3d3b8388207 | |
8835j955c48 | false | SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ise8ff9mf6",
"label": "ClubmasterTransparent",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Eliezer Yudkowsky | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,810,093,438 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | EliezerYudkowsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrJG8Ay-yrvNsp-sZCoQMge2UwXm6PX7H6OTgmpPg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | ise8ff9mf6 | null | null | null | null |
t3qhkr6sysd | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "g9cm25zu4nl",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,810,595,916 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
jcc0w60ex98 | false | O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "At its peak manifold didn't even hit half that number",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc... | pzet | aVCWs8PW8amRLtcWbyEA | public | contract | 1,716,810,899,396 | will-manifold-hit-5000-active-users-d972bc8328ae | pzet | Will Manifold hit 5,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2024? | null | 0.355418 | 253.513268 | NO | null | |
ejrvzrvd02n | false | O9I4q6Z8eqMV3rBAuPqhwTxgiY83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "this is not happening",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | pzet | MIvxY7JbjoiC9chGMaFZ | public | contract | 1,716,811,034,034 | will-manifold-hit-10000-daus-in-202 | pzet | Will Manifold hit 10,000 DAUs in 2024? | null | 0.254479 | 65.279112 | NO | null | |
kibyg3zcb6 | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Argentina’s securities regulator (CNV, Comisión Nacional de Valores) met with the president of the National Digital Assets Commission of El Salvador to... | Antoine Dusséaux | K3nwF3jnFdEOWDXKc20Q | public | contract | 1,716,811,120,942 | will-argentina-adopt-bitcoin-as-its | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Will Argentina adopt Bitcoin as its legal tender by 2030? | null | 0.264764 | 44.819767 | NO | null |
ghrlkhelspr | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Antoine Dusséaux | CpqE6okWHXwT2wFXAtPH | public | contract | 1,716,811,123,038 | will-javier-mileis-government-argen | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Will Javier Milei’s Government (Argentina 🇦🇷 ) purchase Bitcoin during his presidency? | null | null | null | null | null |
2tbxpack2kh | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3",
"label": "SemioticRivalry",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "me... | mint | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,716,811,418,745 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | mint | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | r3hdjk7vsf | null | null | null | null | |
pknt666a9d | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2tbxpack2kh",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | mint | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,716,811,478,960 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | mint | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | r3hdjk7vsf | null | null | null | null | |
uz3vnactvxd | false | Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d5xiBIhfJaZpKMfZlDfT9d1SOu13",
"label": "catto",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | TP King | SEQtNx3fVFwFGXieP9gw | public | contract | 1,716,811,696,322 | how-far-will-hungary-go-in-euro-202 | tpking | How far will Hungary go in Euro 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
r1gk06f1vj | false | Disjvik10uMvgwgHmWKxCGQiBL12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If yes, who will RESOLVE on ur behalf?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | VNet Chrome | 9cSfPM4Yg1vkpbSuAou4 | public | contract | 1,716,812,495,928 | if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-will-every | VNetChrome | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKhCUV1ku9tdawrtVz5spuXXiiMfObHRMeKseoBeEVh=s96-c | If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second? | null | null | null | null | null |
yehja3ei07h | false | Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Note that Apple’s M3 Ultra was cancelled\" ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | ersatz | ddIyuHmG9Kxj92hGnCWN | public | contract | 1,716,812,845,436 | will-there-be-an-m3-ultra-chip-conf-043cf16e3a4b | ersatz | Will there be an M3 Ultra chip configuration with 256 GB of unified memory? | null | 0.865435 | 79.244299 | NO | null | |
lixtw7dde5 | false | uayr6ZYlu2cxCx7PbB3unyctLaz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We can already talk to apes using sign language ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
... | Dmitry Bushev | 69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr | public | contract | 1,716,812,992,965 | will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals | DmitryBushev | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6LB9OBo1zrxYoeu8xZ9xuKr5kSnNTwVU7P3tXEWXw=s96-c | Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034? | null | null | null | null | null |
32lo8lc8xdp | false | mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wysojynx2zd",
"label": "HankyUSA",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Andrew Hartman | YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv | public | contract | 1,716,813,125,100 | in-2028-will-at-least-350000-11000 | AndrewHartman | In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach? | wysojynx2zd | 0.695718 | 352.883848 | NO | null | |
etrr5uv9xl8 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "952elfgau3w",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 3feLr12QbJeo2IFocrZN | public | contract | 1,716,813,804,135 | how-many-standard-deviations-is-ice | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | How many standard deviations is @ice's IQ from the norm? | mgqi9siqd99 | null | null | null | null |
a86hojjps6l | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1",
"label": "DylanSlagh",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | Plasma Ballin' | k8aApGgl5iIHhcHK5PiQ | public | contract | 1,716,813,842,328 | who-will-be-the-2024-libertarian-no | PlasmaBallin | Who will be the 2024 Libertarian nominee for president of the United States? | null | null | 155.712326 | YES | ae60312c9d64 | |
801450kvifn | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2",
"label": "Noah1",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Plasma Ballin' | 1J5WqbjpGHvPfjgTnZvz | public | contract | 1,716,813,908,472 | will-rfk-jr-be-the-libertarian-part | PlasmaBallin | Will RFK Jr. be the Libertarian Party presidential nominee? | null | 0.047447 | 4,095.784467 | NO | null | |
7cjxhq7wpej | false | MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0okvvkzg684k",
"label": "Enlil",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | CodeandSolder | seqOr3Z8N02eHHCeldO4 | public | contract | 1,716,813,987,753 | will-there-be-largescale-rioting-in-721f0882dfd8 | CodeandSolder | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026? | 0okvvkzg684k | 0.545449 | 22.680405 | NO | null | |
ol3auqya62 | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The LP is going to do much worse than usual because they have to compete with RFK. He's the one who will be getting all the, \"I don't like the other ... | Plasma Ballin' | gF6cmmmkNbOuq0iWkBAQ | public | contract | 1,716,814,562,428 | how-much-of-the-popular-vote-will-t | PlasmaBallin | How much of the popular vote will the Libertarian Party's candidate win in the 2024 United States Presidential election? | null | null | 34.368035 | NO | b01577f376c0 | |
wwx9g38dl2 | false | M4jAX80bZPevv4nQQaGWG1zIRS52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I dont think browsers in the sense we mean will be used much at all in 2030",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Leggo | WzJpJwCDiGpvOqaMhzQC | public | contract | 1,716,814,563,232 | will-google-chrome-remain-the-most-b6a90119b68f | Leggo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJSVF_QCnzyvRfGegh529xiwG0JKFbAjuQWTIRtHB77Ryw=s96-c | Will Google Chrome be the most popular browser at the end of 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
gjjyci1ot6l | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Last chance to take the poll. I will close it in ~a day.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"at... | Plasma Ballin' | LqzADMn2AhcUOatt8iCI | public | contract | 1,716,814,722,744 | holy-fucking-shit-what-type-of-mark | PlasmaBallin | Holy😇 fucking🍆 shit💩! What type of market are there too many of? | null | null | 104.856614 | NO | 7d7afe83bd1a | |
sbm6ilpcv4s | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "q8rx8hu5cw",
"label": "EstMtz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,716,814,724,215 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | q8rx8hu5cw | 0.133449 | 33.656865 | YES | null |
wzjcqjxs0r | false | iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How many hours are you at now? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Sapphire828 | 95qYJYCXfgbb6l2krVE2 | public | contract | 1,716,814,725,954 | will-i-do-6h-or-less-of-work-on-gra | EstMtz | Will I do 6h or less of work on GraphSheets this week? | null | null | null | null | null | |
pws2pz4wgye | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Last chance to take the poll. I will close it in ~a day.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"at... | Plasma Ballin' | KirHKDDIxjpIeOtxxhD0 | public | contract | 1,716,814,791,521 | which-political-party-does-manifold | PlasmaBallin | Which political party does Manifold think Donald Trump would run as? | null | null | 24.702264 | YES | 7862d53ca2f3 | |
y6y7k5ckgdc | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Last chance to take the poll. I will close it in ~a day.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"at... | Plasma Ballin' | pcpHK6maQlVoZmBrKTNl | public | contract | 1,716,814,813,662 | which-political-party-does-manifold-3dfa4d529638 | PlasmaBallin | Which political party does Manifold think Joe Biden would run as? | null | null | 12.390482 | YES | 89a301f173ca | |
t30qy1hwo5 | false | iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sbm6ilpcv4s",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Sapphire828 | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,716,814,823,048 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | EstMtz | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | q8rx8hu5cw | 0.133449 | 405.326738 | NO | null | |
sdp25kk3yxi | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "t30qy1hwo5",
"label": "EstMtz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | public | contract | 1,716,814,886,480 | will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | q8rx8hu5cw | 0.133449 | 33.656865 | YES | null |
1uy0y6btthq | false | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Taking suggestions for how to ACTUALLY verify him. This wasn't intended to be a bid to meet Duncan IRL, and like, check Duncan's id. ",
"type... | Caleb | Pw0cHJ7VnUmCKDFkQYqA | public | contract | 1,716,816,270,552 | is-duncan-sabien-a-large-language-m | klob | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c | Is Duncan Sabien a large language model? | null | null | null | null | null |
skyl73psx8 | false | aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wktphodeweh",
"label": "ArmandodiMatteo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Chris Snyder | dwBmBw1KHZ5SiI862ac7 | public | contract | 1,716,817,223,410 | in-the-year-2100-these-will-be-the | ChrisSnyder | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpylDvsoUKS3P2P4mU5BumdLv0Gxj2f5SpmWV_Y-3RSzyv=s96-c | In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages | ewd75ts5r5e | null | null | null | null |
d8lpn4b6j5 | false | zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fuqkolck53v",
"label": "ShadowyZephyr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Rana G | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,716,817,281,148 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | RanaG | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | fuqkolck53v | null | 126.413694 | YES | bda10a463922 | |
91xv6512ea | false | HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7mly7tcrqvm",
"label": "DavidBolin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Niel S | 4zZR1RokKRwyN8pLDWxU | public | contract | 1,716,818,464,985 | would-you-rather-have-50-odds-of-wi | NielS | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | Would you rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵 | h0miem5x3nw | null | null | null | null |
dbgvgt2m2ml | false | wafjm1hIwwRSzKmZd8s9MAH2qF32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2",
"label": "Awex",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Aditya Gupta | WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm | public | contract | 1,716,818,610,267 | ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f | AdityaGupta4830 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbP2SEivBqEg1hTuRbZsvsjl3_Cp6D6eqx-U_XnxfQ=s96-c | 🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game. | null | null | 1,357.393358 | NO | ffe7436bdefc |
uvt8uao4hei | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kd99y23uqdg",
"label": "ShadowyZephyr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,818,804,846 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | rzmahcgc14i | null | 81.226261 | YES | 8f53e6bfa11d |
n2zui412e9d | false | 9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why enslave people if they can no longer make an economic contribution? I think a singleton that is not committed to the common good is more likely to ... | Jan | dSPraXH3NxtQMHqATJO1 | public | contract | 1,716,819,013,946 | which-is-preferable-enslavement-due | Jan53274 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c | Which is preferable: enslavement due to proprietary AI or civilizational collapse due to open source AI? | null | null | null | null | null |
99j5dp36yml | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm baffled by the 95% yes here, I was under the impression that Manifold is mostly straight men, who would rapidly find themselves fired and likely in... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,819,374,472 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
v8sxpyfad3a | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "uvt8uao4hei",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,819,406,839 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | rzmahcgc14i | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
9twghiqwwla | false | ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Album came out on the 24th of May: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"mark... | Andri | rVdYEmy724aLL2zdXAmo | public | contract | 1,716,819,721,140 | will-bring-me-the-horizons-post-hum | andri | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c | Will Bring Me The Horizon's "POST HUMAN: NeX GEn" album come out by the end of the summer in 2024? | null | 0.79 | 817.281191 | YES | null |
g9bidp74llh | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I saw a friend the other night and I asked him all of the stuff on the list in this market. when I got to this one, he asked \"is it only my porn histo... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,819,779,613 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
qwdt4lr4tnh | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v8sxpyfad3a",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,819,922,039 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | rzmahcgc14i | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
gf5028c9i7b | false | HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Labour is underpriced here vs other markets",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mike H | SEQyattwFhw3qukWSl8v | public | contract | 1,716,819,950,366 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 | MikeH | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6 | UK General Election - which party will win the second most seats? | null | null | 802.928869 | YES | b63868c06984 |
3rj5sdp5ruf | false | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jo7orko5zrg",
"label": "thepurplebull",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Blomfilter | gF6cmmmkNbOuq0iWkBAQ | public | contract | 1,716,819,970,038 | how-much-of-the-popular-vote-will-t | Blomfilter | How much of the popular vote will the Libertarian Party's candidate win in the 2024 United States Presidential election? | jo7orko5zrg | null | 13.173566 | NO | 9f5bbad2919e | |
ezkbltdbs1o | false | FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Current best deals are ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
... | inaimathi | FCFZkLjpeQbzy6oPq8i5 | public | contract | 1,716,820,019,425 | will-i-be-able-to-buy-a-4090-for-le | inaimathi | Will I be able to buy a 4090 for less than $2500 CAD by June 2024? | null | 0.320933 | 54.207662 | NO | null | |
5dgnhjhwd7q | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gl5rf8zmngq",
"label": "DavidBolin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,022,528 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | bjpfp93mu3p | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
u0n1e1j8xk8 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "iifrci5pno",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,159,915 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 0djgtyzwalq7 | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
d8qgg0n0huj | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xq2h9x2pnyf",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Ian Philips | FmKdvh4eeLkW00WBHlyj | public | contract | 1,716,820,162,807 | how-long-will-this-gourd-last | ian | How long will this gourd last? | xq2h9x2pnyf | null | 35.215887 | NO | 18459a7e6277 | |
mpmbt7l6xhf | false | wBYfXajsCqaOxDkEqzCz8U3rFNB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "get a seat",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Jonah Weissman | oj2v5nBkSVGT93T845em | public | contract | 1,716,820,235,607 | will-pvdd-get-a-seat-in-the-europea | JonahWeissman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ0R08lEWjgZ6q7AFz1nPa-4Q72avJiJrSHlFNvOTae=s96-c | Will PvdD get a seat in the European Parliament? | null | 0.751744 | 62.730569 | YES | null |
nb58fd64oq | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is thicker than two short planks but only literally not metaphorically. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
... | Christopher Randles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,820,275,220 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 167.116902 | YES | 1fe85c689372 |
o5f7i1kvwni | false | SjXxAz2Y7BV0W9E0AHTJiVGJTIh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The match against Betis did not go so well, perhaps Dortmund has a chance. I still believe Real Madrid will win.",
"type": "text"
}
... | wabz | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,716,820,315,892 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | wabz | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | 5uefgxxb957 | 0.276623 | 15,570.754019 | NO | null | |
scuete4pdyo | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "g9bidp74llh",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,426,387 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | g9bidp74llh | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
qfkg44gsxh | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "99j5dp36yml",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,458,380 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 99j5dp36yml | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
z5abxl490f | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "u0n1e1j8xk8",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Timothy Johnson | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,538,035 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 0djgtyzwalq7 | null | 310.964223 | YES | e1ac8a167fdf |
y2xk13qukx | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qfkg44gsxh",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,714,805 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 99j5dp36yml | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
6d4wihfjxxr | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "scuete4pdyo",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,763,937 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | g9bidp74llh | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
rk6y8doymhq | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "FTR everything in this Cobb Salad counts exactly as it is (as does, say, a chicken caesar salad), but things like",
"type": "text"
}
... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,921,647 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 0djgtyzwalq7 | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
984a1a53pbi | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "z5abxl490f",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,820,993,709 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 0djgtyzwalq7 | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
xxyxwe5tvs9 | false | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cpav77ppx9w",
"label": "jim",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Stop Punting | kxOpTzGQ0adHaf46bkMy | public | contract | 1,716,821,054,450 | will-daniel-negreanu-make-a-profit | StopPunting | Will Daniel Negreanu make a profit playing the WSOP 2024? | cpav77ppx9w | 0.44 | 0 | YES | null | |
wbhqt8ez7pl | false | NyPB2flsw6P3H4ScNKjzyilepXH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n2zui412e9d",
"label": "Jan53274",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | paleink | dSPraXH3NxtQMHqATJO1 | public | contract | 1,716,821,161,336 | which-is-preferable-enslavement-due | paleink | Which is preferable: enslavement due to proprietary AI or civilizational collapse due to open source AI? | n2zui412e9d | null | null | null | null | |
jau69v1xaq | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6d4wihfjxxr",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,821,242,538 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | g9bidp74llh | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
4iore3aukpn | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "We haven't seen any time decay due to the expectation that new releases may contain a breakthrough for this kind of puzzle. Thanks to ",
"typ... | Panfilo | x0TsFJAIqjBErTSU3k6c | public | contract | 1,716,821,247,552 | by-the-end-of-2024-will-there-be-an | Panfilo | By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle? | null | 0.55 | 219.107993 | NO | null | |
50aqtm6826k | false | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Other still seems undervalued. 75 years to go.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Martin Randall | dwBmBw1KHZ5SiI862ac7 | public | contract | 1,716,821,247,582 | in-the-year-2100-these-will-be-the | MartinRandall | In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages | null | null | 1,240.306641 | YES | 6c7c496e9f23 | |
zndowfjfb0b | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6d4wihfjxxr",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,821,299,721 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | g9bidp74llh | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
5f0zscp63gw | false | aT0xhM8JgiS51x23FlpDFp1gV6H3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "51wy2sv7e4w",
"label": "Nat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Nathan Nguyen | BKYDw7dxw1fT8sbtldxf | public | contract | 1,716,821,408,600 | by-end-of-2030-english-speakers-wil | NathanNguyen | By end of 2030, English speakers will be able to fluently communicate with Spanish speakers using a translation device | 51wy2sv7e4w | null | null | null | null | |
0al2jfi4uawf | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "scuete4pdyo",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | stefanie | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,821,509,663 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | shankypanky | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | g9bidp74llh | null | 321.10921 | NO | cae724d28376 | |
4v9530nj30x | false | wafjm1hIwwRSzKmZd8s9MAH2qF32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | Aditya Gupta | yZbRwrtce8BnZsbOBsuj | public | contract | 1,716,821,591,735 | will-mohammed-shami-play-any-matche | AdityaGupta4830 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbP2SEivBqEg1hTuRbZsvsjl3_Cp6D6eqx-U_XnxfQ=s96-c | Will Mohammed Shami play any matches? 🏏 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup | null | 0.192993 | 1,082.706731 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.