id
stringlengths
8
13
isApi
bool
2 classes
userId
stringlengths
28
28
content
dict
userName
stringlengths
1
30
contractId
stringlengths
9
20
visibility
stringclasses
2 values
commentType
stringclasses
1 value
createdTime
int64
1,716B
1,720B
contractSlug
stringlengths
5
48
userUsername
stringlengths
1
25
userAvatarUrl
stringlengths
50
1.03k
contractQuestion
stringlengths
2
240
replyToCommentId
stringlengths
8
20
commentorPositionProb
float64
0
50
commentorPositionShares
float64
-0
6.25M
commentorPositionOutcome
stringclasses
2 values
commentorPositionAnswerId
stringlengths
9
12
9mnytrkjcw
false
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "29n9wap27pi", "label": "Qoiuoiuoiu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Qoiuoiuoiu
JGKCchNilhUsW9raQMTp
public
contract
1,716,772,981,935
will-brazils-gdp-growth-rate-exceed
Qoiuoiuoiu
https://firebasestorage.…2ea-1eb85c642bfa
Will Brazil's GDP [real] growth rate exceed 3% in 2023?
29n9wap27pi
0.469542
21.516298
YES
null
nnze7zhipzd
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2", "label": "aenews", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Joshua
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,773,477,157
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
null
null
null
null
null
zu6js129chn
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lmao", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,773,544,281
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
null
null
null
null
null
g5zp88he1kp
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Still want an explanation why she has two identical looking framed photos…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
JRP
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,773,694,427
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
null
null
null
null
null
4toh9yf9uju
false
1DAD61ST5AVlJXz8pDPBlkOGfok1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "rip 68% innovation academy may they rest in peace and come back next year to win it all", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
insider trader (not martha ste
LFEGGEYiGzaGf0wjhC9V
public
contract
1,716,774,204,182
who-will-win-the-2024-hsnct
yolo456
https://firebasestorage.…25f-af026147665b
Who will win the 2024 HSNCT?
null
null
2,004.505015
YES
5502ec22d576
gnx4wvr85oq
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g5zp88he1kp", "label": "parhizj", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jackson polack
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,774,236,570
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
g5zp88he1kp
null
null
null
null
zf87h1djfye
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gnx4wvr85oq", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,774,351,730
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
g5zp88he1kp
null
null
null
null
zze8hejd3ig
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zf87h1djfye", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jackson polack
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,774,438,988
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
g5zp88he1kp
null
null
null
null
fu9bgx2m6ht
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zze8hejd3ig", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,774,470,754
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
g5zp88he1kp
null
null
null
null
vd4hycm7p6
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4o1m79yv0w4", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,774,620,389
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
z3eewk2sf2
null
1,631.152094
YES
3ef25a41deb3
cd0czkypil6
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vd4hycm7p6", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,716,774,646,430
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
z3eewk2sf2
null
321.10921
NO
cae724d28376
lgjjxbrloa9
false
M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nfcnu1uns2", "label": "nathanwei", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Lexer
2aUSpl43APOnn1dB0Rnt
public
contract
1,716,775,244,383
what-will-be-twomads-official-manne-3321ead3f59f
Lexer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c
What will be twomad's official manner of death?
nfcnu1uns2
null
null
null
null
0nf79o1t99jh
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lgjjxbrloa9", "label": "Lexer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Nathan Wei
2aUSpl43APOnn1dB0Rnt
public
contract
1,716,775,303,910
what-will-be-twomads-official-manne-3321ead3f59f
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
What will be twomad's official manner of death?
nfcnu1uns2
null
null
null
null
d10lb2yyz9g
false
NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As the editor of Jeffrey", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Stephen S Power
otIwVPvCPLaNkYPw1DMB
public
contract
1,716,775,705,422
is-the-brain-quantum
StephenSPower
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c
Is the brain quantum?
null
null
null
null
null
ec464r6nof5
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it usually takes me 2 or 3 flips", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
xatfzI6bZBXzdcbWBUud
public
contract
1,716,776,185,209
daily-usb-flip
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Daily USB flip
null
50
202.461767
NO
null
040pn6iymv59
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Under what circumstances will this resolve to NEVER?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc"...
Josh Wilkes
r3PB7MYYuTrIVdyvw6vl
public
contract
1,716,777,069,173
in-what-month-will-china-invade-tai
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
In what month will China invade Taiwan?
null
null
66.77094
YES
c16549f649c5
l1bhyziolbl
false
Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "alright Mavs I have half my net worth tied up in you, just don't be generational chokers now", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
Alexander Miller
30EzAFfW4YdQWOqodZIQ
public
contract
1,716,777,263,800
which-team-will-win-the-western-con
AlexanderMiller
https://firebasestorage.…b54-8f8eda824b90
Which team will win the Western Conference? Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks
null
null
58,874.544305
YES
bfba958c6a86
0ln5fgf2p4y
false
Disjvik10uMvgwgHmWKxCGQiBL12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Note exchange rate", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
VNet Chrome
W66cktybToiB5ah9XxDo
public
contract
1,716,777,433,472
will-there-be-more-international-tr
VNetChrome
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKhCUV1ku9tdawrtVz5spuXXiiMfObHRMeKseoBeEVh=s96-c
Will there be more international travelers to Japan in 2024 than there were in 2019?
null
0.615525
78.006527
YES
null
7mly7tcrqvm
false
nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h0miem5x3nw", "label": "NielS", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
David Bolin
4zZR1RokKRwyN8pLDWxU
public
contract
1,716,777,481,419
would-you-rather-have-50-odds-of-wi
DavidBolin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c
Would you rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵
h0miem5x3nw
null
null
null
null
d4hee4bkb8d
false
Disjvik10uMvgwgHmWKxCGQiBL12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If yes, how would u be there to RESOLVE?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
VNet Chrome
CImI7JWS3X6xQjJZPKKo
public
contract
1,716,777,693,907
will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d1e8126d974
VNetChrome
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKhCUV1ku9tdawrtVz5spuXXiiMfObHRMeKseoBeEVh=s96-c
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
3r593aapflf
false
5vEowFr3rBPiRMtqc8UPhqpbHWh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Holy smokes, that game 4 was amazing!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt Lashof-Sullivan
CCfxaS3HST58qp6fd9KJ
public
contract
1,716,777,702,915
professional-womens-hockey-league-p
MattLashofSullivan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLS04zSTXXFhgB1eacAIEE9U0EH4jKv5V55bjuYL9e-FHw=s96-c
Minnesota vs Boston - Professional Women's Hockey League🏒 Playoff Finals
null
null
49.030258
NO
f077d46cde0c
1ishwy38slg
false
0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7mly7tcrqvm", "label": "DavidBolin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno Joyal 🍅
4zZR1RokKRwyN8pLDWxU
public
contract
1,716,778,064,725
would-you-rather-have-50-odds-of-wi
BrunoJ
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteYBxZSAOQI4rRpDCyiUNObDhTNJGeFDpW2VnHY5rWn5Eo=s96-c
Would you rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵
h0miem5x3nw
null
null
null
null
ywtvfsffkt
false
85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q5d3jtn0lgg", "label": "1941159478", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Simon
k140nIGQ66PafKvySKas
public
contract
1,716,778,411,503
will-the-eu-ai-act-enter-into-force-289ddee092ef
Simon74fe
https://firebasestorage.…9cf-f4888550befa
Will the EU AI Act enter into force before the end of May 2024?
q5d3jtn0lgg
0.06
124.67867
YES
null
ewd75ts5r5e
false
aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please help me understand... shouldn't these percentages be resolving to an expected value of 5 instead of 1? Unless I'm missing something this seems l...
Chris Snyder
dwBmBw1KHZ5SiI862ac7
public
contract
1,716,778,693,766
in-the-year-2100-these-will-be-the
ChrisSnyder
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpylDvsoUKS3P2P4mU5BumdLv0Gxj2f5SpmWV_Y-3RSzyv=s96-c
In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages
null
null
null
null
null
xito1ecupw
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is literally a video ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,778,818,402
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
null
null
null
null
null
w0hspizzirn
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Based on this video, it might seem like this is more a question on the capability of robots than AI. We may have cracked the code on some of the method...
Quroe
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIr
public
contract
1,716,779,068,589
will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?
null
50
141.049292
YES
null
0uov44dlo3cc
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "gFPP5Z6rRPdPLcwZmqt5c1tTo6Q2", "label": "saul...
Dan
yFclKzpKMk5wm9tzTGhp
public
contract
1,716,779,082,238
is-saultymunny-on-discord-actually
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Is saultymunny on Discord *actually* the host of Manifest Conference?
null
50
6,313.8771
YES
null
jx0iq2qjnmg
false
e9l6MDYALEeEXWAHtFTzLMXcZD72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Study mana inflation ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bear
arOrDm0ZuwgE9GqdmQrL
public
contract
1,716,779,630,067
will-the-price-of-ether-ethereum-et
BearMarket
https://firebasestorage.…b0a-66a35f2b3f8d
Will the price of Ether (Ethereum / ETH) exceed $5,000 in 2024?
null
0.655637
33,809.214056
YES
null
du0a7jdxdb
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2", "label": "klob", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Dan
yFclKzpKMk5wm9tzTGhp
public
contract
1,716,779,709,992
is-saultymunny-on-discord-actually
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Is saultymunny on Discord *actually* the host of Manifest Conference?
0uov44dlo3cc
50
8,795.639044
YES
null
az6m2dny53
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh, I see the confusion. I had meant \"dark matter\" to refer to \"whatever causes these observations\", but you were interpreting it as actually being...
Isaac King
tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv
public
contract
1,716,780,011,542
what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
What percentage of dark matter is baryonic?
nb9smw57fd
0.293698
80.721966
NO
null
2sg0yjs8nc6
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Gabrielle just didn't understand the market... ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6...
jim
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,780,279,515
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
5,622.398255
NO
be5da8403dad
x1t5by8xl59
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jt9rihsc1si", "label": "Lexer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Haws
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,716,780,310,440
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
jt9rihsc1si
0.409489
157.075813
NO
null
jpyfn7xbvee
false
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b61z8qu0s3", "label": "CampbellHutcheson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Isaac King
d7TRl5aRU5jumgSc2g2L
public
contract
1,716,780,319,689
if-we-survive-general-artificial-in
IsaacKing
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
b61z8qu0s3
null
431.831004
YES
b3d3b8388207
hh3018hrd5
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this a trick question?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Baker
Pw0cHJ7VnUmCKDFkQYqA
public
contract
1,716,780,919,147
is-duncan-sabien-a-large-language-m
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Is Duncan Sabien a large language model?
null
null
null
null
null
uszuakjnqf
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "edited to remove snark", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Campbell Hutcheson
d7TRl5aRU5jumgSc2g2L
public
contract
1,716,781,055,014
if-we-survive-general-artificial-in
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
b61z8qu0s3
null
null
null
null
jczt47itrf
false
5lXqRNQ9dHcBiPLD9VoOSOzO3Mz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think @", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
kane pequie
IIL56h6Upryzlg63488K
public
contract
1,716,781,678,701
who-will-be-guests-on-the-dwarkesh
kanepequie
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKFju5vSQXfx1JqY9TOoxkkhN03aBMRr7Lz_Cg8e6N3=s96-c
Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
jaisfnx72dd
false
0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Close one! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno Joyal 🍅
dQUsEalOfhtQmJyPWBfQ
public
contract
1,716,783,034,943
would-manifold-rather-have-50-odds
BrunoJ
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteYBxZSAOQI4rRpDCyiUNObDhTNJGeFDpW2VnHY5rWn5Eo=s96-c
Would Manifold rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵
null
null
0
YES
7a3a48704b35
lccofxozmvj
false
hgyzihMTfFRFcvukkZDRSbrVPj23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "VVVj8BOvZ9fpuy8r85wokS8xSUk1", "label": "bennyfeldman16fc", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "m...
Second-Hand YT
2YmaTfksTSqhoY6etjTp
public
contract
1,716,783,042,015
who-will-win-the-2024-high-school-n
SecondHandYT
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbZ8vsTAzV0T8RhaPZW_u15ToZxbekuAuMlGYdMUENzrLcfJ0z=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 High School National Championship Tournament?
null
null
11.983585
NO
2c2be2fc3284
0wffjza46xmn
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's not looking good 😢:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Nat
bS5vGPnHumw2TtHPjDT8
public
contract
1,716,784,407,547
will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-28471d95c174
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander "Moon Sniper" survive a 4th lunar night?
null
0.804358
16.211094
YES
null
xvlyj0fdv3o
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The first quarter ends on May 26th, and this can resolve. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "...
Ziddletwix
JvbjfBZ5oIbJ22yoAc8T
public
contract
1,716,784,707,374
which-of-these-partner-will-have-th
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which Partner will have the highest earnings in the First Quarter?
null
null
9,467.540189
YES
17fead993245
ikwom48123k
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The first quarter ends on may 26th (today), and this can resolve.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Ziddletwix
SzKxM9so8QHMowDqi8jD
public
contract
1,716,784,784,614
how-much-earnings-will-jack-have-fo
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much Partner earnings will @jack have for the first quarter?
null
null
1,549.093818
YES
8edcb54e8925
a07mbrm6ay9
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The first quarter ends on May 26th. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "c...
Ziddletwix
qZZDmIZMLz9XfSP9R6wI
public
contract
1,716,784,905,870
how-many-creator-partners-would-rea
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How many Creator Partners would reach the $3000 earnings cap in the first quarter?
null
null
1,117.753021
YES
7a65f71eeea0
01t0m477xn5e
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "label": "Eliza", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
TpaLZNPm3ZzdlwAhEqdd
public
contract
1,716,785,005,666
who-will-be-a-creator-partner-on-ma
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be added as a Creator Partner on Manifold before the end of the "first quarter" (presumably 26 May)?
null
null
1,601.256839
NO
eef5314a443e
n8ht0hb86sn
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
Ziddletwix
HmFJ3proz5Uy0JueXoeB
public
contract
1,716,785,058,656
how-much-money-will-i-make-in-the-c
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much money will I make in the Creator Partner Program from Feb 26 - May 26, 2024?
null
null
237.671437
YES
bb1dae647384
nsthtzl1lfo
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Small options, minimal liquidity, but not sure how this should resolve based on the latest partner announcement. e.g. there's no more direct \"per trad...
Ziddletwix
Q61RgiiZk5cObzfpTUo5
public
contract
1,716,785,138,404
what-changes-will-the-partner-progr
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
What changes will the Partner Program undergo as part of the pivot?
null
null
null
null
null
ol06bnalbdf
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2sg0yjs8nc6", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,785,471,160
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
2sg0yjs8nc6
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
o12m5ff299
false
M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ulbricht has Twitter in supermax?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
NivlacM
tSmI97iXzTCHLh61JPTs
public
contract
1,716,785,560,895
will-ross-ulbricht-be-pardoned-or-h
NivlacM
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c
Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
qk65vymzhug
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ki748ETmcLWJDwEXYvppdzrFA5y2", "label": "Eduardo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
biQ2T5YPnX2iV1QyoFR8
public
contract
1,716,785,815,579
who-will-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-2
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will win the Liga MX Clausura 2024?
null
null
829.74708
YES
b5703acaec20
d1035nu69un
false
xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
themightysalmon
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,716,785,873,931
fairlyrandom-testing-market
themightysalmon
https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513
FairlyRandom testing market
null
null
null
null
null
gig3zt77et4
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,716,785,878,112
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
ipife0mz8ze
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,716,785,911,411
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
tvj21atgsfk
false
xqZ2EP0YJgY8Xv6ZGGi15mclE2C2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
WayStone
nTAJGontqkfLRo0aaqX3
public
contract
1,716,786,010,712
will-6g-use-ai-in-the-physical-laye-ded464411e53
WayStone
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4MHVB6BEom0H5VfucKHIg0zA_4oW5FQbn4bp0BfZrDiJJTw=s96-c
Will 6G use AI in the physical layer before 2030?
null
0.405142
114.658667
YES
null
r9mk4oeycd
false
U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if we have met him and we can just like…vouch that he’s a human ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ]...
Haven
Pw0cHJ7VnUmCKDFkQYqA
public
contract
1,716,786,391,581
is-duncan-sabien-a-large-language-m
HWH
https://firebasestorage.…c25-335c6547f4d1
Is Duncan Sabien a large language model?
null
50
6,777.376957
NO
null
03dmabi29a9o
false
NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wwqxfbsrfoh", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Benjamin Cosman
jlQuoI7fRWIpHdw6JNlY
public
contract
1,716,786,496,014
will-a-uk-general-election-be-held-c7debd8ff86a
BenjaminCosman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpw00X8vUChExgzazukv9rP3dnjhsvxGTntPujSNQ=s96-c
Will a UK General Election be held during Q2 2024?
ki1sjyab6vr
0
19.835279
NO
null
51wy2sv7e4w
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How good and how frictionless does it have to be? Would something like GPT-4o count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
Nat
BKYDw7dxw1fT8sbtldxf
public
contract
1,716,786,843,454
by-end-of-2030-english-speakers-wil
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
By end of 2030, English speakers will be able to fluently communicate with Spanish speakers using a translation device
null
null
null
null
null
z35pf6szedi
false
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Quality market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ammon Lam
xatfzI6bZBXzdcbWBUud
public
contract
1,716,786,866,099
daily-usb-flip
AmmonLam
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
Daily USB flip
null
null
null
null
null
em378rruda
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this market will never make it back, seeing as it's an unlinked MC that resolves as late as 2040, but I've added 2k in subsidies because this question ...
Pat Scott🩴
X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB
public
contract
1,716,787,979,443
which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?
null
null
44.444444
NO
2f355c04f544
juv10cyyz2l
false
8dVDne83ecNjKUEMagAZ5uswIAW2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this mean the entirety of East Jerusalem under Palestinian control? Or that any of it at all be under Palestinian control?", "type": "te...
UnspecifiedPerson
TKFk70prPGqxbxYk522p
public
contract
1,716,788,427,834
what-will-be-part-of-bidens-plan-fo
UnspecifiedPerson
https://firebasestorage.…7b2-a366cdeb70d3
What will be part of Biden's plan for a Palestinian state?
null
null
null
null
null
icxcks7on5j
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "em378rruda", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB
public
contract
1,716,788,470,220
which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?
em378rruda
null
null
null
null
swam2vdd62
false
WR2p6FWfI2fx3U3zY0Ed5aBgMyt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nb9smw57fd", "label": "mariopasquato", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Armando di Matteo
tyx5SFdjFIofzqAzcTSv
public
contract
1,716,789,030,985
what-percentage-of-dark-matter-is-b
ArmandodiMatteo
https://firebasestorage.…672-181ade63fe01
What percentage of dark matter is baryonic?
nb9smw57fd
0.293698
13.111223
NO
null
wktphodeweh
false
WR2p6FWfI2fx3U3zY0Ed5aBgMyt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ewd75ts5r5e", "label": "ChrisSnyder", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Armando di Matteo
dwBmBw1KHZ5SiI862ac7
public
contract
1,716,789,107,956
in-the-year-2100-these-will-be-the
ArmandodiMatteo
https://firebasestorage.…672-181ade63fe01
In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages
ewd75ts5r5e
null
2,441.343652
YES
56ae27b674cd
taoo392iqd
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "tried to add a little subsidy boost and the app decided to take it twice so - lfg endangered species, you can do it 🙌 ", "type": "text" ...
stefanie
X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB
public
contract
1,716,789,131,564
which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?
em378rruda
null
null
null
null
e5wh1ies3l
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ikwom48123k", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
SzKxM9so8QHMowDqi8jD
public
contract
1,716,789,230,107
how-much-earnings-will-jack-have-fo
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How much Partner earnings will @jack have for the first quarter?
ikwom48123k
null
null
null
null
f2cgho3i2g8
false
WR2p6FWfI2fx3U3zY0Ed5aBgMyt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "than 93-year-old George Soros, or than Soros would be if he was president at Musk's age?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Armando di Matteo
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,789,407,199
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ArmandodiMatteo
https://firebasestorage.…672-181ade63fe01
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
216.095423
YES
173e67a701db
l1nttdp0xbn
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x6ujv3ka92b", "label": "AlaaRanga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
N.C. Young
YOUbPAL1HtcRJAe6FEk1
public
contract
1,716,789,474,352
are-there-infinitely-many-sexy-prim
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Are there infinitely many sexy primes?
x6ujv3ka92b
null
null
null
null
f705bhaxsbm
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xito1ecupw", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
stefanie
1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
public
contract
1,716,789,581,062
was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
xito1ecupw
null
null
null
null
gwna4si3a7n
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No knocks on Eliezer Yudkowsky, of whose existence it is likely I would eventually have become aware had I never found Manifold. Consider a world where...
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,789,714,303
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
emr1016yvu
false
xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
themightysalmon
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,716,789,832,387
fairlyrandom-testing-market
themightysalmon
https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513
FairlyRandom testing market
null
null
null
null
null
ptl0zie9vhi
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,716,789,833,847
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
4v91xlnnvyo
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
5lSzAKdJ4un2AuEKnRSl
public
contract
1,716,789,874,699
fairlyrandom-testing-market
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
FairlyRandom testing market
null
0.504005
12.606074
NO
null
3aivnc1dam6
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "with the raising costs to 1000M my output has declined more than ever </3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
chris (strutheo)
qeb6X83e8ljEsWflVqOu
public
contract
1,716,790,464,261
gofundme-help-fund-my-market-creati
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🤲GoFundMe: Help Fund My Market Creation [375 OF 5K RAISED]
null
null
null
null
null
g2u9r9yipe
false
8ClHap6pPnTL6uOupDT94R6cxgv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "He doomed humanity by starting OpenAI.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "m...
Adele Lopez
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,790,580,348
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
adele
https://firebasestorage.…004-d13e976cd5ea
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
7,553.134041
NO
37f0747697e3
71zj4yp0yc7
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g19zw4v79fk", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
DUkjxAABEfniUzFGUCWM
public
contract
1,716,790,594,237
if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-87b62e658934
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote Trump or a nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces party?
g19zw4v79fk
null
null
null
null
qzsn4uhwlei
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g2u9r9yipe", "label": "adele", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,790,856,405
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
g2u9r9yipe
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
ise8ff9mf6
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1", "label": "EliezerYudkowsky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "m...
ClubmasterTransparent
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,791,314,788
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
2,090.570122
NO
3492687fa606
3v115l005s
false
wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I support reparations weighted by how dark someone’s skin is. Drake = $8 reparations", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
FoxKHTML
ehsDA8FHCrFzKK6hAOhr
public
contract
1,716,791,533,781
reparations-by-2030
FoxKHTML
https://firebasestorage.…e38-64ea064304ad
Reparations by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
d88e3ggknp
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This would suddenly make all but the most certain huge whale trades vastly unprofitable, and thus single handedly obliterate the site", "type...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
sDd3yLgtbXZ06tFaE9uq
public
contract
1,716,792,523,074
how-many-questions-are-currently-on
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
How many questions are currently on Manifold for which you'd be willing to pay 1 dollar to see the current prediction?
null
null
null
null
null
glt96rboe2v
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d88e3ggknp", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
sDd3yLgtbXZ06tFaE9uq
public
contract
1,716,792,573,941
how-many-questions-are-currently-on
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
How many questions are currently on Manifold for which you'd be willing to pay 1 dollar to see the current prediction?
d88e3ggknp
null
null
null
null
l5y6rsst7xt
false
tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kb5sIs18pGSpUPF9VtZJ", "label": "jakgnfdaghfjkahg", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
MaybeNotDepends
x0P26RGwSqiUm3MUpmU4
public
contract
1,716,792,626,461
who-will-win-mexicos-2024-president
MaybeNotDepends
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VO4XW87xPohAfyLBK7tQTItTIigYkEipdDBlN=s96-c
Who will win Mexico's 2024 Presidential election?
kb5sIs18pGSpUPF9VtZJ
null
732.578213
YES
f760007ac398
fk1b3tm0kx8
false
91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There's a great deal of evidence it will be quiet:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
PhilosophyBear
rbfgryrXRIMnJ3qCONIZ
public
contract
1,716,793,182,446
if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-what-will
PhilosophyBear
https://firebasestorage.…5e9-4830e79d2cee
If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?
null
null
81.954776
YES
d463849fff2a
255hs01dfcp
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Reading the Free Ross website, it feels like they don’t even really know what the argument is? Half it is like “he was just doing based Libertarian stu...
Craig Talbert
FUhbwtvW9EAS4q2yEj3r
public
contract
1,716,793,292,473
will-ross-ulbricht-be-released-from
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will Ross Ulbricht be released from prison before January 1st, 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
8e0ddawmd6j
false
91jUs5utwnRlFgrGh2qJMka2l1j2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Worth noting that it's possible to have an AI sex, or possibly even romance, toy that one wouldn't consider a girlfriend or boyfriend. I suspect that f...
PhilosophyBear
FlDk7oGECSxBx6dK6Eon
public
contract
1,716,793,339,700
will-ai-girlfriends-overtake-real-g
PhilosophyBear
https://firebasestorage.…5e9-4830e79d2cee
Will AI girlfriends overtake real girlfriends before 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
zd985n2mbaq
false
kcT3FBB2ldQuiYCTYW3uQuN2oCk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vydwkkbb10r", "label": "rogs", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mothmatic
ektS9GTQmmbhURMFOrjM
public
contract
1,716,793,360,123
will-ai-get-at-least-bronze-on-the
Mothmatic
https://firebasestorage.…8ab-982b2c158312
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by 2025?
vydwkkbb10r
0.40319
583.512463
YES
null
fx41yrazkai
false
6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gwna4si3a7n", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Patrik Cihal
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,793,388,365
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
patrik
https://firebasestorage.…184-1140b99c8021
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
gwna4si3a7n
null
672.395989
NO
fdb3f2d22989
4oudclrwvoy
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I did it in the dark to be sure it was fair.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
singer
xatfzI6bZBXzdcbWBUud
public
contract
1,716,793,397,627
daily-usb-flip
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Daily USB flip
null
null
null
null
null
zq0y2t0vip
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nsthtzl1lfo", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" } ...
Dan
Q61RgiiZk5cObzfpTUo5
public
contract
1,716,793,484,763
what-changes-will-the-partner-progr
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
What changes will the Partner Program undergo as part of the pivot?
nsthtzl1lfo
null
73.560837
NO
320919c16c3a
z1lifxrroxa
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So this is basically asking whether humanity will become a totalitarian world-state of homogenous people? And Bostrom is heavily implying that this is ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
867yKyPMlaUVKjX9U8DE
public
contract
1,716,793,858,507
will-humanity-exit-the-semianarchic
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
0d68xpqt2amr
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does it still count if it happens as a result of ASI rather than in preparation for it? It intuitively seems like that's the bulk of the probability", ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
867yKyPMlaUVKjX9U8DE
public
contract
1,716,793,962,302
will-humanity-exit-the-semianarchic
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?
null
null
null
null
null
b17k7t4d0an
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "LNa9wq1qZPhEctGqTEsNMxrKuYL2", "label": "MicahHermiz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Fedor
ISAYCjIc3XjsVRA6OkKS
public
contract
1,716,794,215,298
what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
What will be true of the Monaco GP weekend?
null
null
2,451.581863
NO
af0465fadc46
qy8iasbync
false
28c5p2EeLGMMRhICPUbpDm2A2il2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ejhid3heu3", "label": "Lexer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Vitor
yhICmZdhVvGCamJMXdp6
public
contract
1,716,794,234,280
will-2024-be-even-hotter-than-2023
VitorBosshard
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2E37JwpTiA4tIhpgQ_jOAY4uQ2Vgv3jJXF8rIs=s96-c
Will 2024 be even hotter than 2023? 🥵
ejhid3heu3
0.73128
2,253.459999
NO
null
icv58guvdkm
false
qPLSTAJoahZ8uaqHnpqK0at8G6J2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I woke up like this. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Seo Andalan
DFzJbzFnNTLVlkfLA530
public
contract
1,716,794,252,454
will-i-spend-season-7-among-the-mas
SeoAndalan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYa8HidknbjTkdnsFLMLjbscdPgWzI18UhGRz7KteRw00Alw=s96-c
Will I spend Season 7 among the masters?
null
null
null
null
null
aw1b18fkcrt
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolution criteria?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Pw0cHJ7VnUmCKDFkQYqA
public
contract
1,716,794,345,525
is-duncan-sabien-a-large-language-m
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Is Duncan Sabien a large language model?
null
null
null
null
null
shj5nt8mwt9
false
qPLSTAJoahZ8uaqHnpqK0at8G6J2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Syauqi Printing adalah Pusat ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Seo Andalan
vJSA60EdsdevLBWMXcGg
public
contract
1,716,794,366,962
by-2025-will-i-firmly-believe-that
SeoAndalan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYa8HidknbjTkdnsFLMLjbscdPgWzI18UhGRz7KteRw00Alw=s96-c
By 2025 will I firmly believe that one of the 2023 balloon shootdowns was staged by the Biden administration for PR purposes?
null
null
null
null
null
d62ebjxygy
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Gaz Downright
UW3pIBC92fK1Wpa9L7g5
public
contract
1,716,794,460,328
-who-will-be-la-liga-top-scorer-in
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
⚽ Who will be La Liga top scorer in the 2023/24 season?
null
null
2,332.383758
YES
221e444601f6
in9vlbqkdkm
false
qPLSTAJoahZ8uaqHnpqK0at8G6J2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I woke up like this. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Seo Andalan
xFpw7vBOzUE780rsd8KV
public
contract
1,716,794,491,291
will-i-promote-to-masters-this-year
SeoAndalan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYa8HidknbjTkdnsFLMLjbscdPgWzI18UhGRz7KteRw00Alw=s96-c
Will I promote to Masters this year?
null
null
null
null
null
a687j9fuhkm
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lwkdt1tqxc", "label": "costlySignal", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
sDPDmEk1y1aZVQXsCqv2
public
contract
1,716,794,552,714
will-uk-rejoin-the-european-union-b
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?
bdTzYzt6yKjmf3t0kfHC
null
null
null
null
u9jhpxpbblk
false
U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Here’s a screenshot that includes my streak and icon in the same picture! 💯", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Haven
sG3jHwh9bBu6lwibHwLZ
public
contract
1,716,794,558,515
will-i-get-to-a-100-day-streak-on-m
HWH
https://firebasestorage.…c25-335c6547f4d1
Will I get to a 100 day streak on Manifold in May 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
ien1wdkt1kg
false
qPLSTAJoahZ8uaqHnpqK0at8G6J2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Whoever wins it, I hope he is the best ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "...
Seo Andalan
srtH0vZbB15pnT7ezJTn
public
contract
1,716,794,698,978
who-will-be-1-in-masters-league-for
SeoAndalan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYa8HidknbjTkdnsFLMLjbscdPgWzI18UhGRz7KteRw00Alw=s96-c
Who will be #1 in Masters League for any amount of time in the first half of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
cb5ux3w5kuw
false
OyqhrfzOeeeUVX76eWodMscm7Ud2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How about adding Vercel to the list?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yangzihao Wang
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,716,794,806,880
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
YangzihaoWang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfvoo7rljFIV4L3AzQgg28kJ7pesYFEcy9o1Yi7sYN5VSQ=s96-c
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
null
null
296.835427
YES
9fdd3a1223d2
zz3vv2inzqh
false
HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ucitdpmuwoa", "label": "lisamarsh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mike H
M13x60ilxiOqk885AIo1
public
contract
1,716,795,032,531
what-will-be-about-the-next-uk-gene
MikeH
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6
What will be true about the next UK general election?
oy3fuapbs3
null
579.165082
YES
815ae372c2bb