id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5tpm9emdk8r | false | zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I tried to change my profile pic but could not. First on mac safari I uploaded a jpg, and it showed the changed pic in the edit dialog, I pressed done, and the pic is still the same old. Then I tried the iphone app, selecting a picture from my photo library. Again the edit dialog showed the new pic, I pressed done, but the pic is still the same old.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Goodgulf | ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI | public | contract | 1,716,902,455,250 | bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs | Goodgulf | Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs | null | null | null | null | null | |
tnxzkb90d1 | false | OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.macrumors.com/guide/m4-imac/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "32-Inch iMac With Mini-LED Display Rumored to Launch in 2025",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Probajoelistic | JvmTRQGlSBparSOXycZP | public | contract | 1,716,902,535,024 | what-existing-mac-products-will-app | probajoelistic | 💻 What existing Mac products will Apple update in 2024? | null | null | 532.265992 | YES | 69dff29c9fff | |
9jakzhqsyj | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "u0vimvoi7oe",
"label": "Lorelai",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " would you also apply this to Taylor swift (she isn't really that impressive, she was just born UMC and most people wouldn't want to become popstars anyway)?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Or actually, who could you ever not apply this to? This just seems like a universal argument against ever being impressed with anyone.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,902,836,698 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 77.032493 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 |
yc94zuchwpk | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9jakzhqsyj",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't know enough about her because I don't really care about her, but her fame seems largely the result of good marketing. There are people who imo make much technically better music out there. Same goes for most famous people tbh. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "edit for your edit: I am generally less impressed by people who actively seek public glory as opposed to being highly skilled at their craft. It's important to see through the smoke and mirrors of self aggrandisement",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,903,049,148 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,990.144514 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
7hah700b1vq | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "100 days to kickoff! 🏈 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Official | HEqNPXqhuktmhrQNyBDu | public | contract | 1,716,903,576,940 | week-1-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game | 10thOfficial | (Week 1) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide | null | null | null | null | null | |
nocq8rygxqn | false | mlTY0Yw10Pgo0Tk6Ln7kAAWvSaF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fy9j5oq9se",
"label": "SamBogerd",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Cool thanks so 'Other' is free money now...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bert | xWPtCbbpumA8WDm3Zo4O | public | contract | 1,716,903,963,290 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-1900af200308 | Bart5f6d | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | fy9j5oq9se | null | 231.288495 | YES | 8e53bbecabd2 | |
k33xczff2a | false | mlTY0Yw10Pgo0Tk6Ln7kAAWvSaF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fy9j5oq9se",
"label": "SamBogerd",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This is not fair at all, because 'Other' is automatically split when someone proposes a new candidate.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bert | xWPtCbbpumA8WDm3Zo4O | public | contract | 1,716,904,008,293 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-1900af200308 | Bart5f6d | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | fy9j5oq9se | null | 231.288495 | YES | 8e53bbecabd2 | |
f78cm4m2d9t | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d41uraak01i",
"label": "JessRiedel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " aiui older markets were posted with ~100 mana in implicit depth, whereas newer ones are with 1000. So there's a lot of discrepancy. Adding answers later might also make a difference.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mqrius | 2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW | public | contract | 1,716,904,085,467 | when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683 | Mqrius | When will there be a 4th Starship launch? | d41uraak01i | null | 53.549879 | YES | 8fa448796a2e | |
v8mus0uoy6q | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Accepting that I panic sold and miscalculated in this market re: profit, I just want to express moral disgust at the fact that we have tanks in central Rafah, mass clearing operations across a swathe of the city, video of refugees being bombed directly in broad daylight, and the reporting is still in a range that serious people could argue is ambiguous as to whether there has been a Rafah invasion. I agree with Martin Randall on Discord; synonyms are not equivocation. Words like \"offensive\" when not qualified by \"limited\" are the same as invasion.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The spirit of these questions so clearly started in one place, and now rests in a sort of pathetic acquiessence to what most of the world sees as transparent propaganda. If anything, the expected resolution here is more biased than the Times/WaPo reporting. If you ask a reporter from these publications six months from now, \"did Israel invade Rafah in May?\" they will almost certainly say Yes, and yet this market will say No as a matter of record for what a \"prediction market\" is.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Panfilo | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,716,904,165,120 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | Panfilo | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | null | null | 10,414.77382 | YES | 246add140b36 | |
ysx1zug9w0s | false | Qqyym4yIE0O8ZRMDnIbe5535s7r2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Thanks for your updates. I would like to get more information about bins and earning money. Have a very good day!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Aiden Mark | pphSb3qjE0RX6dkezZlo | public | contract | 1,716,904,321,791 | more-bins-how-much-money-will-the-h | AidenMark | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI5hD-XS27UaN06vx48MYFMj5DkRAYzY6VEvDkFdQi05fefDQ=s96-c | [More bins] How much money will the highest earning partner creator earn in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
ypsaivqg8c | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No one has walked on the moon in over 50 years, which should imply a prior of 2/3 against anyone doing it in the next 25. Then the actual number should be lower because weadd a woman-specific clause.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | UMYBtHlmxUKzGmVYuywy | public | contract | 1,716,904,364,544 | will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor-1f97ac2fe792 | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will a woman walk on the moon before the end of 2050? | null | 0.890574 | 765.484046 | NO | null |
m4lcl4jaf3q | false | Qqyym4yIE0O8ZRMDnIbe5535s7r2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It looks interesting. I don't know much about trading. But if you update me here. I will be highly glad. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Aiden Mark | qiGAouLdK3t0HIfDhaWm | public | contract | 1,716,904,415,607 | which-will-come-first-spice-or-trad | AidenMark | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI5hD-XS27UaN06vx48MYFMj5DkRAYzY6VEvDkFdQi05fefDQ=s96-c | Which will come first, spice or trading fees? | null | null | null | null | null |
77hnk4qxfw8 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "if stock splits i will multiply by 10 to keep this accurate ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | pLeEVyKksfn0eUCJVolw | public | contract | 1,716,905,671,784 | at-the-end-of-september-will-nvidia | strutheo | At the end of September will Nvidia stock price be larger than the number of One Piece manga chapters? | null | null | null | null | null | |
7uv17pm0rh5 | false | 4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(For the record, this could be a result of any trial, not just the hush payment one.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Snarflak | AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S | public | contract | 1,716,905,799,313 | how-soon-after-trump-is-convicted-o | Snarflak | How soon after Trump is convicted of a felony will his Wikipedia article be updated? | null | null | null | null | null | |
f08kt2gmfsk | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "vipeflation",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Enlil | 3lc1ibSZUq5NQPEMklm7 | public | contract | 1,716,905,882,212 | primary-reason-the-us-presidential | Enlil | Primary reason the US Presidential race is a tie | null | null | null | null | null | |
24fywlx6i93 | false | CVVD40PZYJSqzqVFiVL2sfZK5Vs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1kcmqppwml",
"label": "singer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I meant at large scales - like going through huge chunks and providing high level ideas or at least offering comments along the way.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Sahil Deshmukh | kM2se9OW796xpO8fzpyK | public | contract | 1,716,906,272,685 | will-github-release-an-assistant-si | SahilDeshmukh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd14XojdYVruJjsXvjEjW8sgX9smKWwGsE-gJK_dFuPDCs=s96-c | Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028? | r1pyq9bwmoq | 50 | 813.500495 | YES | null |
5vtid9clvq9 | false | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rqdh1791ikh",
"label": "Mich",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'll use the latter since Next Year could mean both and going the long way means we can always close early if results come in.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Doesn't need to be the first, as long as he releases his iteration of AGI by end of 2025. If OpenAI comes out with their implementation of AGI before, no impact on this market.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For the purposes of this market, as long as it's released by xAI/Elon and meets AGI requirements, we'll resolve yes.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | vVv | tqKZD3jRNXzEqiIRUsxC | public | contract | 1,716,906,395,003 | will-xelon-musk-achieve-agi-by-next | vVv | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year? | rqdh1791ikh | null | null | null | null |
h624b1jdvv | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_territorial_dispute",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_territorial_dispute",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "AFAIK, Venezuela has not invaded and is not occupying territory in Guyana at the moment. If so, there are only 4 days left in May, so it's impossible for them to hold territory for at least one week, and this can now resolve NO. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(If there's some news I missed that would count as occupying territory, then that's a separate story. But if it's gonna resolve NO, can resolve now)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | GvJPhU7F4RWpQfWCkhRS | public | contract | 1,716,906,529,292 | will-the-venezuelan-military-invade | Ziddletwix | Before June 1st 2024: Will the Venezuelan military invade and occupy territory in Guyana for at least one week? | null | 0.037466 | 3,412.931375 | NO | null | |
9gf0jf72oyu | false | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Episode Four: In the episode \"73 Yards\" Ruby dies of old age, before resetting the timeline. This is the third time that Ruby has died in this series.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Harry Hayfield | RKFl2udKShOfgJGpm6tp | public | contract | 1,716,906,815,051 | how-many-times-will-ruby-sunday-die | HarryHayfield | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | How many times will Ruby Sunday die in the new series of Doctor Who? | null | null | null | null | null |
qahuctubquf | false | NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ilya is confident OpenAl will build AGI that is safe in the tweet quoted below. The market resolution was wrong. The market said it resolves to no if it reorganizes in a way that is \"unlikely to lead to a solution\". : \"Ilya Sutskever",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "@ilyasut After almost a decade, I have made the decision to leave OpenAl. The company's trajectory has been nothing short of miraculous, and I'm confident that OpenAl will build AGI that is both safe and beneficial under the leadership of@sama, @gdb,@miramurati and now, under the excellent research leadership of @merettm.\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Teddy Weverka | CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC | public | contract | 1,716,906,895,455 | will-superalignment-succeed | TeddyWeverka | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c | Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment) | null | 0 | 0 | NO | null |
9iy7k0scsd | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Reincarnation actually makes sense if you consider the fact that you were already incarnated once. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If before you were born is the same epistemic state as after you are dead (simply non existence), then you already have one instance of evidence that non-existence leads to existence, and you can’t experience not existing.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | NvDzSo4vVdEfOP0XkLz3 | public | contract | 1,716,906,911,861 | whats-an-unconventional-opinion-or | ConnorDolan | What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [UNLINKED] | null | null | 76.479361 | YES | e48b63daee5d | |
dbnholg3yd | false | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The 14th Doctor's final words were \"Allons-y\" (which translates as \"Let's Go\") therefore in the context of the question this can resolve as NO",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Harry Hayfield | 9SRz4mOQMpO0Adwc0liC | public | contract | 1,716,906,940,093 | will-the-fourteenth-doctors-final-w | HarryHayfield | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | Will the Fourteenth Doctor's final words be some variation on "I don't want to go"? | null | null | null | null | null |
q6lnjihaqvr | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since the criteria is unconventional opinions, shouldn’t the ones with high percentages resolve no and the ones with low percentages resolve yes?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | NvDzSo4vVdEfOP0XkLz3 | public | contract | 1,716,907,289,565 | whats-an-unconventional-opinion-or | ConnorDolan | What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [UNLINKED] | null | null | 76.479361 | YES | e48b63daee5d | |
4it09g03thg | false | INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If tomorrow isn’t going to be a good day, why?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Casey The Grip Lord | WCOEUQ2uOPBgVEsTjQfW | public | contract | 1,716,907,318,441 | is-tomorrow-going-to-be-a-good-day | CaseyTheGripLord | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c | Is tomorrow going to be a good day? | null | null | null | null | null |
3fxzn50w7hh | false | M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xjyowtjx0b",
"label": "RuzgarSanli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " okay I've read the whole thing. I'm still not convinced. Also if you're gonna pull excepts out of the post use the \"Mutecin antibiotic survives the gut and travels in the blood part\". It's much scarier than the \"Probiotics are -people- yogurt\" part",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | NivlacM | ogQdVvzpTH2j3W5HdOY1 | public | contract | 1,716,907,440,119 | will-lantern-bioworks-lumina-treatm-f33e1b4d0184 | NivlacM | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c | Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028? | l3c2aweom6 | 0.257856 | 186.948808 | YES | null |
k2cfiqevtw | false | oH5VPkX7C7S10GxkFb1VHqFgB0C2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3",
"label": "SemioticRivalry",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " how would this resolve if the majority decision doesn't fully align with either Trump's argument or the government's position. For instance, if the majority opinion says that there was clearly no immunity for some private acts, but orders the District Court to hold hearings about whether other acts were official and might be covered by immunity?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | bitters | mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN | public | contract | 1,716,907,855,850 | how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t | bitters | How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case? | null | null | 760.663957 | YES | d4d88be4159a | |
azbnbqlxiqs | false | nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "91xv6512ea",
"label": "NielS",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 1% is not a lottery.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Bolin | 4zZR1RokKRwyN8pLDWxU | public | contract | 1,716,907,957,531 | would-you-rather-have-50-odds-of-wi | DavidBolin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c | Would you rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵 | h0miem5x3nw | null | null | null | null |
ahwq0o1fo0w | false | nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And yes smart gamblers absolutely go for 1% winnings that are over 100x.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Bolin | 4zZR1RokKRwyN8pLDWxU | public | contract | 1,716,907,998,114 | would-you-rather-have-50-odds-of-wi | DavidBolin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c | Would you rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵 | h0miem5x3nw | null | null | null | null |
166mssrcbhm | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2",
"label": "ChrisSnyder",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " That is so specifically unconfident?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Predictor 🔥 | xWE4AZYeqtreIAUkAtkQ | public | contract | 1,716,908,338,964 | tennessee-titans-chicago-bears-cale | Predictor | Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears 🏈 Caleb Williams Era Begins | null | null | null | null | null | |
kjm7q2rqvyb | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All molecular phenomena require quantum mechanics to function as it does. I think a criteria that is much more in the right spirit is could you emulate the computations performed (not the exact underlying physics) with a classical computer, or do you need a quantum computer with it’s unique gates and operations?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | otIwVPvCPLaNkYPw1DMB | public | contract | 1,716,908,345,287 | is-the-brain-quantum | ConnorDolan | Is the brain quantum? | null | null | null | null | null | |
yunkw45hy8d | false | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jog6yi5d0t",
"label": "ian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Hm ok.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Enopoletus Harding | FmKdvh4eeLkW00WBHlyj | public | contract | 1,716,908,352,469 | how-long-will-this-gourd-last | EnopoletusHarding | How long will this gourd last? | xq2h9x2pnyf | null | 52.046002 | YES | f84d0c7adc07 | |
muzv56bm0oh | false | 8WtJTikLNqgXGBI5ullWNKz8Zff1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "fees are absurdly high",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | k | Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv | public | contract | 1,716,908,411,532 | agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 | k83f86 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTJr3-Ia0AQALdw7-WsDRlgmExH8_FqBGwAlOMtV9B=s96-c | AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test] | null | null | 563.511859 | YES | e8aae6520563 |
z7v72anpa6 | false | yP4WnnjIbdOE0S6hqV16S73SEZn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wruhmd4rt4k",
"label": "RobertoGomez",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " most likely gpt5. training will continue for at least 4 months based on previous trends. done by october. seems rather unlikely they could release before EOY. My guess is Q1 2025",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Akram Choudhary | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,716,908,495,722 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | AkramChoudhary | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJmLUNV-ZyFl4jWBLcrXnMpM3Tu1DVZRLfL29nkbe-K=s96-c | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | egfo8y2oez | null | null | null | null |
g3hbmxwtlmv | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "20/24",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F34wwLGWHlx.png?alt=media&token=decd799d-4501-4125-9b0b-99110b304fe1",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "do it for Harambe",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm | public | contract | 1,716,909,138,673 | will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24 | shankypanky | Will I eat ass in the next 24...? | 71crycw6lw6 | null | 753.375109 | NO | e46ef40a0bed | |
m8d6cvyj41m | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v8mus0uoy6q",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The exact word choice matters because \"the invasion\" has been long anticipated. Lines were drawn over this, and ultimatums were issued. The major example being that Biden said he'd withhold weapons shipments if Israel proceeded with an invasion. Other countries also said in advance that they'd be strongly opposed to a Rafah invasion. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The media reported all this in the form of this binary question of \"will there or won't there be an invasion?\" and caused the public to ask that question with that word. This market is simply trying to operationalize that question asked by the media, and so naturally it also resolves to how the media answer that question.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All that said, I'd do many things differently if I were making this market again. A market that has massive shifts based on clarification in the comments is a market that should have had a more clear description from the start.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hopefully the July version is better:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/will-israel-unambiguously-escalate",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg | public | contract | 1,716,909,183,224 | what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire | Joshua | What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st? | v8mus0uoy6q | null | 0 | NO | 74177def07ab | |
e36d17hbx4r | false | 0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "azbnbqlxiqs",
"label": "DavidBolin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I wasn't joking, by the way. If you decide to keep your 10k, I'll just have to assume that that money means more to you than you let on. Otherwise, let me know where I can send you my banking information for a wire transfer. I might even create a market about it with your permission: \"Will David Bolin send me 10k to prove his point?\" ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno Joyal 🍅 | 4zZR1RokKRwyN8pLDWxU | public | contract | 1,716,909,290,990 | would-you-rather-have-50-odds-of-wi | BrunoJ | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteYBxZSAOQI4rRpDCyiUNObDhTNJGeFDpW2VnHY5rWn5Eo=s96-c | Would you rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵 | h0miem5x3nw | null | null | null | null |
8xz8p24z04j | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "muzv56bm0oh",
"label": "k83f86",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " cut fees on long term, high quality markets?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jim | Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv | public | contract | 1,716,909,435,008 | agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 | jim | AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test] | muzv56bm0oh | null | 4,424.595585 | YES | e8aae6520563 | |
4zh7k1ki4r8 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i am sick but its more of a throat thing than a stomach thing, so far so good",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | p0mn22aUExoq7taHbsIn | public | contract | 1,716,909,454,321 | will-i-throw-up-vomit-at-some-point | strutheo | 🤢Will I throw up / vomit at some point in 2024? | null | 0.464696 | 91.195056 | NO | null | |
k905ulhuqdj | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "egfo8y2oez",
"label": "Mothmatic",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Might imply that they tried to train it in 2023, gave up and restarted with the compute-saving innovations made for 4o",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Savior of Plant | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,716,909,549,448 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | egfo8y2oez | 0.622282 | 637.708359 | NO | null |
93klw1p9ix | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hmm fairly low level, wondering if 100 years too long for rocketry? Would people think Von Braun or someone did more to transform rocketry? Would 60 years / since Saturn V be more sensible?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Christopher Randles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,909,568,522 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 167.116902 | YES | 1fe85c689372 |
tu45jdsrb8 | false | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This market is off the true odds because I think that many of the people betting on this market have not served on a jury before.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I served on one, and it was sort of high-profile, and what you find is that cases that go to trial are always incredibly close. Otherwise, it would have been settled, dismissed, or pled out beforehand. A trial costs hundreds of thousands (or, in Trump's case, millions) of dollars to conduct.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Except in a death penalty case where there is nothing to lose by going to trial, I don't think that the odds of conviction should ever be above even. Compromise and split verdicts are more likely than not.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The most likely outcome of this trial will be a compromise verdict. The jury will have great incentive to not hang, because they don't want others to be the people who end up deciding this case. But the prosecution's case is not strong enough to convict on the felony counts, as it relies on Cohen's testimony, which is completely discredited given that he contradicted himself on the stand in this trial alone.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So, there will probably be a split compromise verdict - definitely no felony convictions. The jurors who want to convict would rather settle for some convictions rather than a complete mistrial. I predict some misdemeanor convictions and some acquittals or mistrials, which results in trivial penalties and propels Trump to the Presidency.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Steve Sokolowski | Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY | public | contract | 1,716,909,693,726 | how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end? | null | null | 708.788066 | YES | b0117080de6b |
1ve7m873hdl | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bxe7a8dirlp",
"label": "RemNi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " While not a 10 year span, I just created a new market",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/GazDownright/will-germany-recognize-the-state-of-b158182bb5a4",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " with a two year span from today.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gaz Downright | 0RH5GmobQZXu65lUteZk | public | contract | 1,716,909,978,593 | will-germany-recognize-the-state-of | GazDownright | Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine by the end of 2024? | bxe7a8dirlp | null | null | null | null | |
qud69dhntlq | false | 1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1xk2crp02az",
"label": "chris",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Can you elaborate?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | NBAP | CvK1Cf5xx0G6BjQhJ62E | public | contract | 1,716,910,007,688 | how-likely-are-you-to-survive-time | NBAP | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e | How likely are you to survive Time Travel Russian Roulette? | 1xk2crp02az | null | null | null | null |
yx3ncxhjey | false | 0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " How will mods resolve this if it depends on the \"sole opinion\" of a deleted user? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno Joyal 🍅 | WQ6zukx8CRol0ayLu1pb | public | contract | 1,716,910,052,701 | will-the-leftright-culture-war-come-cb20067ca8e5 | BrunoJ | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteYBxZSAOQI4rRpDCyiUNObDhTNJGeFDpW2VnHY5rWn5Eo=s96-c | Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2024? | null | 0.234362 | 2,651.726735 | NO | null |
xn6ztmwkt8m | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Manifold tiers:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Normal markets",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Shitmarkets (whalebait, spam, personal...)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Polls",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Shitpolls",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "listItem"
}
],
"type": "bulletList"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | 3lc1ibSZUq5NQPEMklm7 | public | contract | 1,716,910,158,528 | primary-reason-the-us-presidential | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Primary reason the US Presidential race is a tie | null | null | null | null | null |
0s5ktythy0j | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "♥️🐇",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | S2walXRsVLY7FGCXElol | public | contract | 1,716,910,298,780 | will-the-bun-javascript-runtime-get | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will the Bun JavaScript runtime surpass Node in GitHub stars during 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
xdpvyy5net | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "this would be bullish for timelines imo",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Savior of Plant | l7StdSwaNTwpNIvWJa5E | public | contract | 1,716,910,479,663 | will-we-find-out-by-2026-that-opena | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | Will we find out by 2026 that OpenAI abandoned an attempt to train GPT-5? | null | null | null | null | null |
58m6ceu8z89 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gksnu0qge2p",
"label": "Fedor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " fellow \">90%\" NO holders, HOLD THE LINE ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "💎🤲. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i know the % is climbing again, but it's always darkest before the dawn, have faith. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F21Z-ahCW05.png?alt=media&token=b1960ee7-da4a-4637-a23b-cec19c150973",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "(or else i'm about to be very very negative in this market lol) ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ | public | contract | 1,716,910,664,904 | will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha | Ziddletwix | Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | gksnu0qge2p | null | 10,866.694563 | NO | 1f72e6f34b10 | |
v57pc1naqpg | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think the alt accounts here might have gotten out of hand. Adam Smith and Norman Borlaug had suspicious trades last round, and it looks like we might be seeing a repeat with Norman again. Three separate low-activity traders trading in agreement within one minute seems unlikely.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Unless of course there's a whole Clark family and friends with little interest in other markets who formed a voting bloc. I guess that's not ruled out by the market description. Really nice of Darius and Steven to give all their mana to Stephen a few months ago too.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | For Truth | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,716,910,935,381 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | null | null | 21.115691 | YES | 7c695945736b |
h1wgsbwnlq | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Predictor 🔥 | DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ | public | contract | 1,716,911,029,113 | will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha | Predictor | Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ao7j7b3sz4t | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I will be closing this market after closing arguments finish. Place your final bets now",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Savior of Plant | 20uexQlMfP579ouv31gS | public | contract | 1,716,911,281,070 | what-will-happen-in-the-courtroom-d | SaviorofPlant | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | What will happen in the courtroom during Trump's Manhattan trial? [ADD ANSWERS] | null | null | 2,254.882149 | NO | 3b6932c8a415 |
7vr6jqqeum8 | false | PJ6ywFzkSDMvKoNuqjUS2ljyxVZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What happened in this market? There is a gap between 5% and 74% in the trade log.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | GCS | z9J2TnUkQSPcQYve80zI | public | contract | 1,716,911,622,714 | will-china-launch-a-fullscale-milit | GCS | Will China launch a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan in 2024? | null | 0.067834 | 366.990983 | NO | null | |
8yvmovwcbib | false | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p4ly1ksnke",
"label": "Eliza",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " it's hard to know what is the baseline for someone from GC crashing/getting sick and DNS or having a very bad day because of that. I generally put that around 2% per week of a grand tour (what do you think?). Someone else on the podium just needed one of those events for Pogi, Dani or G, which was a relatively high probability event. The issue is that it took O'Connor until the first ITT to get to 4th place (he even recognized that he was the dumbest on stage 1), and even then I needed more mountain stages to make sure that he was really the 4th strongest overall. He just ended up 42 seconds ahead of Tiberi which is pretty close, is just one bad day on a mountain away.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JAAM | W7o2ltRzEzb0AmiW1mvQ | public | contract | 1,716,911,742,019 | will-ben-oconner-finish-within-the | egroj | Will Ben O'Conner finish within the top 3 of the Giro d'Italia GC? | p4ly1ksnke | 0.032531 | 897.866297 | NO | null | |
51nc9gkmufc | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Your age matters a lot though. If you’re 18 in July 2023 you’re 25 by 2030. If you’re 25 then you will be 32. Huge gap.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | UjpnJ3IC65xM5QLlaWMr | public | contract | 1,716,911,793,053 | how-many-children-do-you-think-i-wi | nathanwei | How many children do you think I will likely have by 2030? | null | null | null | null | null | |
k1cee0ox2tr | false | HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's not really a tie when the real money markets are damn near 2:1 in trumps favor ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Bandors | 3lc1ibSZUq5NQPEMklm7 | public | contract | 1,716,912,343,692 | primary-reason-the-us-presidential | TimothyBandors | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c | Primary reason the US Presidential race is a tie | null | null | null | null | null |
cp9e04v3w0f | false | P6XpUpKbtlZ4B7jaFjYT3eKF07y2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "llama3-70b: 82.0 mmlu",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "gpt4-0314: 86.4 mmlu",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "0.9*86.4=77.76",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "--> so yes, llama3-70b is within 90% of the gpt4 mmlu score",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | notune | ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs | public | contract | 1,716,912,584,402 | will-a-gpt4equivalent-model-be-able-2146d4144ade | notune | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fnotune%2FZqoeQ1d4gW.27?alt=media&token=e89841b8-0480-4048-ad6c-636762b6788a | Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025? | dtwejmcpmvk | 0.7 | 141.021625 | YES | null |
9cbf6c1hj0d | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is using all WW gross vs reported budget? No scaling or anything? (So 101M WW vs 100M budget resolves NO?). Want to make sure I follow ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | BxfalLjZBYYUvPeNpFU7 | public | contract | 1,716,912,621,152 | after-furiosas-poor-opening-weekend | Ziddletwix | After Furiosa's poor opening weekend, will any of these upcoming movies flop this year? | null | null | null | null | null | |
puuwml7w7a9 | false | HUVezqMCWVVp5NHQpy8maAYtKqI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Have you done any covid tests",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Allahu Akbar | VBBKCn88HlLMlinFsoNN | public | contract | 1,716,912,752,569 | prop-bets-conflux-caught-a-cold | AlexCao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5MRdji8Fe2SuO4FMlSlHMI_X2LSYi80Hk6u9nB=s96-c | Prop Bets: Conflux Caught a Cold | null | null | 266.584121 | YES | 82504e74e8a9 |
gdh3zlgwd9q | false | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dragon isn't a pirate though so he shouldn't count.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Andrew | 9Zoycw8srOtyHgrnTXOL | public | contract | 1,716,912,777,933 | at-the-end-of-one-piece-which-five | AndrewCrosse | At the end of One Piece, which five pirates will have the highest recorded bounties of all time? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ozmm2f1hqcd | false | HUVezqMCWVVp5NHQpy8maAYtKqI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's coming home",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Allahu Akbar | XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF | public | contract | 1,716,912,857,247 | which-country-will-win-euro-2024 | AlexCao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5MRdji8Fe2SuO4FMlSlHMI_X2LSYi80Hk6u9nB=s96-c | Which country will win Euro 2024? | null | null | 141.895819 | YES | 63c31a7ea323 |
n6sd7kg26dp | false | HUVezqMCWVVp5NHQpy8maAYtKqI3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "More like, Nimarata Randhawa",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Allahu Akbar | 34p72IKM2A228W35Pcaz | public | contract | 1,716,912,926,597 | will-nikki-haley-run-a-thirdparty-o | AlexCao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5MRdji8Fe2SuO4FMlSlHMI_X2LSYi80Hk6u9nB=s96-c | Will Nikki Haley run a third-party or independent campaign for president in 2024? #galaxybrain | null | null | null | null | null |
hfcexvl0kq4 | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Lion",
"target": "_self"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Lion",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " For one mana boy it is the spam, for another SPICE MAN, it is the treasure! Maybe no need for being so insulting?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | 59ynK4MJDvvb1sSZiYE0 | public | contract | 1,716,913,147,953 | jesus-stock | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Jesus stock | null | null | null | null | null |
5t9uayl7d3c | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "yx3ncxhjey",
"label": "BrunoJ",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " We're planning to transfer all of this creator's markets to ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2",
"label": "jacksonpolack",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " once staff have the tool to do that finalized. I don't think the had particularly unusual views or issued any weird clarifications so IMO this market could just continue according the description criteria but with Jackson's judgement of whether or not it becomes abundantly clear that this has happened. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | WQ6zukx8CRol0ayLu1pb | public | contract | 1,716,913,370,711 | will-the-leftright-culture-war-come-cb20067ca8e5 | Joshua | Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2024? | yx3ncxhjey | 0.234362 | 225.449612 | YES | null | |
zjnusfz7ce | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2MbB23WzhYtCiPHi2k7S",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yeah, I don’t see how the conditional probabilities for the premise of this problem change the answer. The information is given anyway by the scenarios where the host accidentally reveals the car or your original pick as being excluded. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The reasoning I think people are using is that you get no benefit from switching if the host reveals (accidentally or on purpose) a goat first before you pick. In that case it’s 50/50 and doesn’t matter if you switch. But that’s entirely a matter of the order of the pick and reveal, and it’s irrelevant and independent from whether the host knows or doesn’t, the premise is forced either way so I don’t see the logical connection. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | lnl7qZmKkDfXnMFNpaVG | public | contract | 1,716,913,761,356 | will-gpt5-get-the-monty-fall-proble | ConnorDolan | Will GPT-5 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct? | 2MbB23WzhYtCiPHi2k7S | null | null | null | null | |
te3phlehte | false | 0OXZrWKVi3Si3HbEb59CCU2anUi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5t9uayl7d3c",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks for the answer! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno Joyal 🍅 | WQ6zukx8CRol0ayLu1pb | public | contract | 1,716,913,772,550 | will-the-leftright-culture-war-come-cb20067ca8e5 | BrunoJ | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteYBxZSAOQI4rRpDCyiUNObDhTNJGeFDpW2VnHY5rWn5Eo=s96-c | Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2024? | yx3ncxhjey | 0.234362 | 2,651.726735 | NO | null |
fi62ynbabg7 | false | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fdsc_evA23J.30?alt=media&token=1adef845-5099-479c-94a2-fb0d46af1f9f",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1795488977597976576",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1795488977597976576",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Blomfilter | f7bOO5nEJxGrbfKBwV4K | public | contract | 1,716,913,821,707 | will-rfk-jr-be-on-the-ballot-for-pr | Blomfilter | Will RFK Jr. be on the ballot for president in the state of New York? | null | 0.896429 | 1,618.35555 | YES | null | |
haqqecqzrun | false | 5HTIDGak13ZoEqJrUGiRXlCAm6j1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a96pcobe6w",
"label": "Joltin_Joe",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Any level of government. They just need to come out while in office. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nadja_L | CTJ5ElyKFZefTYuanu4g | public | contract | 1,716,914,180,726 | will-a-republican-in-office-come-ou | Nadja_L | Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? | a96pcobe6w | null | null | null | null | |
r8ju8m8gfuh | false | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I've added Dick Schoof and made it so other people can add answers. Please only add serious answers.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jskf | 4kW57vyqqXm1cEEodZSc | public | contract | 1,716,914,255,191 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3 | jskf | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | null | null | 2,828.899177 | YES | b5967a8f3430 | |
2w1321m06hl | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Sometimes I am sensing from you a little bit of undertones of the jew hate? Now maybe I am wrong about it, I pray, but I am asking for you to consider how you are trading because I am not always liking it!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | 3YmP16rLbG0m6E2jHDUY | public | contract | 1,716,914,394,022 | will-any-university-announce-a-dive | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will any university announce a divestment from Israel by June 2024? | null | 0.746471 | 29.744817 | NO | null |
tvqd73ar8b | false | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "k33xczff2a",
"label": "Bart5f6d",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " There's 2 \"other\" answers. I assume the one that auto-splits will not pay out. You can recognize that one because there's a ⓘ next to it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jskf | xWPtCbbpumA8WDm3Zo4O | public | contract | 1,716,914,481,421 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-1900af200308 | jskf | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | fy9j5oq9se | null | 2,103.424259 | YES | 741e217b1797 | |
hvh7z5dp3el | false | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1",
"label": "SamBogerd",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think the way I would handle this is to rename the extra \"Other\" to \"DELETED\" or whatever, maybe reimbursing people who have shares in it, then only resolve to the actual answer. It's not a lot of people and they didn't spend much on it:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzE3-ApZc97.png?alt=media&token=ebe077c1-9be8-482b-b6ba-29b30da5d173",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jskf | xWPtCbbpumA8WDm3Zo4O | public | contract | 1,716,914,640,132 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-1900af200308 | jskf | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | fy9j5oq9se | null | 2,103.424259 | YES | 741e217b1797 | |
0dkip7rxx9e | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zjnusfz7ce",
"label": "ConnorDolan",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " No wait, nevermind, it’s twice as likely in this case that you picked the car in the place first given that the host tripped and revealed a goat. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Point retracted. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | lnl7qZmKkDfXnMFNpaVG | public | contract | 1,716,914,692,711 | will-gpt5-get-the-monty-fall-proble | ConnorDolan | Will GPT-5 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct? | 2MbB23WzhYtCiPHi2k7S | null | null | null | null | |
z5ta44vdmgo | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have always warned the people around me for the hazards of the AI apps. Sometimes I am thinking it may even be destroying humanity (but this is a conversation maybe people here are not ready for yet discussing intellectually!) Today it is do my fear that it will be the small cases like this with Scarlett Johanssen chipping away at our fabrics of norms that will be doing the damaging right up to until then at the end. There will be none of the compensation to be had!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF | public | contract | 1,716,914,747,803 | will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024? | null | 0.190158 | 48.710426 | NO | null |
gig5jhvbjlr | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | IJHUDgkrQlq5WNeVHVIx | public | contract | 1,716,915,235,357 | will-lantern-bioworks-lumina-treatm | strutheo | Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2027? | null | null | null | null | null | |
yhg4x67g8v | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | qMv6w3aBIoOHXgQbZqyB | public | contract | 1,716,915,315,464 | will-ilya-sutskever-announce-they-a | strutheo | Will Ilya Sutskever announce they will work at Anthropic before the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
q7ippsfcki | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "At OAI specifically? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | qYlrays9eAYeUJHZCUSE | public | contract | 1,716,915,326,576 | will-jan-leike-still-be-leading-sup | shankypanky | Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years? | null | null | null | null | null | |
8ilv1y8l16 | false | ioRiytaYL0XoWxzR9qCQfmJiyZk2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/janleike/status/1795497960509448617",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Jan Leike joined Anthropic",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ryan | V67cprH6fbyEbfRZ9U5Y | public | contract | 1,716,915,412,505 | if-ilya-sutskever-takes-on-a-new-ro | Ryannn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp78IvvtirtxY_EItV8oLcmfhj2ZlagTF4t7yrhnoB0=s96-c | If Ilya Sutskever takes on a new role in 2024, where will it be? | null | null | 327.120795 | YES | eca76098b9a2 |
3i8fii74y7d | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | 0WvSe3ZXIKTsakXvP6BD | public | contract | 1,716,915,481,703 | rishi-sunak-involved-in-an-helicopt | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Rishi Sunak involved in an helicopter crash in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
sb2gslpfxmk | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQmSpvGoXhP.webp?alt=media&token=37e63eee-d905-4869-be29-cfe04732b879",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | aHCmNidrZfPY7om4Uysf | public | contract | 1,716,915,642,716 | which-market-will-be-manifolds-favo | strutheo | Which market will be Manifold's favorite market of 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | null | null | null | |
1qbidbv4jij | false | cInsKX5arUUjPs8PXeSTlQybYeC3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Some relevant facts: ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Until 2016, all presidential debates included handshakes. The final 2016 debate did not feature a handshake. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "2020 debates did not feature handshakes due to COVID: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/27/politics/biden-trump-no-handshake-first-presidential-debate/index.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/27/politics/biden-trump-no-handshake-first-presidential-debate/index.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tim Duffy | gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH | public | contract | 1,716,915,665,292 | will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at | TimDuffy | Will Trump and Biden Shake Hands at the first debate in June? | null | 0.550194 | 1,726.982508 | YES | null | |
0zx76kg203z | false | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Bonus question: Will it be larger than the 1040?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lion | Q9ZbUrpwlsa0jmvabH6H | public | contract | 1,716,915,670,591 | will-garmin-announce-a-cycling-comp | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Will Garmin announce a cycling computer with a screen resolution significantly greater than the Edge 1040 in 2024? | null | 0.5 | 437.559324 | YES | null |
r3qlx1lmyxk | false | wqiUScMYYtey2ThDgMzz5Ruhkrh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/h5n1-virus-in-latest-human-case-has-mutated-officials-say/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/h5n1-virus-in-latest-human-case-has-mutated-officials-say/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | winthefin | dOfzaxfpEAAsO2K4NbXv | public | contract | 1,716,915,758,039 | will-there-be-documented-humantohum | WinstonWalker | Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026? | null | 0.578589 | 688.965955 | YES | null | |
7hnkr4uqpuq | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "albpkex9t9d",
"label": "Interrobang",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/2649",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/2649",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I believe I fixed most/all of the ones you listed. I might have left 1 or 2 if they looked ok and read well.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Genzy | XkMhtu3gAiLJJrzZuMsW | public | contract | 1,716,915,772,166 | will-the-typo-expectationt-in-the-m | Gen | Will the typo "expectationt" in the Manifold FAQ be corrected to "expectation" by August 1st 6:00 PM UTC? | albpkex9t9d | 0.966172 | 1,919.591265 | YES | null | |
4xmlu7q4fze | false | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "255hs01dfcp",
"label": "CraigTalbert",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " \"he was just doing based Libertarian stuff that should be legal anyways\" is totally a sufficient argument",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | M.H. | FUhbwtvW9EAS4q2yEj3r | public | contract | 1,716,915,891,689 | will-ross-ulbricht-be-released-from | MilfordHammerschmidt | Will Ross Ulbricht be released from prison before January 1st, 2030? | 255hs01dfcp | 0.2764 | 83.174826 | YES | null | |
1u45xvxgozd | false | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "r8ju8m8gfuh",
"label": "jskf",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " what happens with 'Other' before Dick Schoof was added?! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Wabi Sabi | 4kW57vyqqXm1cEEodZSc | public | contract | 1,716,916,204,965 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3 | TheWabiSabi | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | r8ju8m8gfuh | null | 3,040.95598 | YES | d0efd43a5048 | |
mf44yijd1l | false | 2BjZn7l2acSHgyHaFdXsStawcM12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a516trlforg",
"label": "ScipioFabius",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think the market description actually says monthly average of the DAU, not the MAU.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac Carruthers | gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta | public | contract | 1,716,916,254,785 | will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac | IsaacCarruthers | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcXXLFBQ4W22BzdB2pjzWmPe8QTc5dbbJiQblZf_gXrgLw=s96-c | Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025? | 25unwbe9x3z | 0.548823 | 1,544.574393 | NO | null |
ldeg6rah7cf | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Was this meant to be a poll?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nat | qnXwtV8sSfg4rVTkv7WQ | public | contract | 1,716,916,276,733 | will-openai-release-the-gpt4o-audio | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Will OpenAI release the gpt-4o audio/calling feature on ChatGPT to paying users before July? | null | null | null | null | null |
pod0efi8ixm | false | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1u45xvxgozd",
"label": "TheWabiSabi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Everyone with shares in it now has the same number of shares in Dick Schoof.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jskf | 4kW57vyqqXm1cEEodZSc | public | contract | 1,716,916,309,881 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3 | jskf | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | r8ju8m8gfuh | null | 2,828.899177 | YES | b5967a8f3430 | |
t2yl0cpqdk | false | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pod0efi8ixm",
"label": "jskf",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " normally, but not now ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fm_p1YC8MOI.jpg?alt=media&token=48f65f58-67d1-4c57-a931-2593d4b692a3",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Wabi Sabi | 4kW57vyqqXm1cEEodZSc | public | contract | 1,716,916,366,173 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3 | TheWabiSabi | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | r8ju8m8gfuh | null | 3,040.95598 | YES | d0efd43a5048 | |
nbvbazupupj | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pmifiqz8wl",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think the idea was good, Monaco kinda ruined things bc I left it open for qualifying and nothing changed during the race. Total loss was somewhere around 4-5k mana, but I spent 7k on subsidy and 3k on boosts bc I wanted people to find the market and I don't usually create them for f1 events. If you remove the mana spent on boosts, and reduce the added liquidity, I think a market like this with no subsidy would have lost ~500mana",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I retrieved 6k in liquidity and I had about ~1500 in profit (before qualifying) where I had adjusted things to their proper odds. Had I closed before qualifying I think I would have profited when resolving, bc Max fell so far and things were shaken quite a lot.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Realistically, f1 is probably the worst sport to do this bc of the two separate odds-changing events. Another unfortunate way I could have turned it profitable is by closing pre-qualifying, then reopening after and adjusting the odds myself.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Excluding the Superbowl it's very unlikely at current volumes that creators will profit more from fees during the game than they will from recapturing their liquidity. We have kinda talked about a system where the creator can \"withdraw\" the liquidity rather than having to close the market -- we'll see if anything comes of that. Then I could have withdrawn pre-qualifying and essentially ran the market at zero cost.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I encourage you to try it and lmk how it goes. I will probably try it again (or sponsor someone else to try it) on something like NFL where there is no qualifying event",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Genzy | vuoMr6LMdDZ94zQJ3BXL | public | contract | 1,716,916,618,833 | f1-who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at | Gen | F1: Who will finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | fvwh1m1ofpe | null | 766.62579 | NO | bfb76f998bc5 | |
jpmn09xv6ko | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Internet archive down but nobody added it ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 6yAUo8cPzhMPDD476hPk | public | contract | 1,716,916,683,039 | which-companies-or-websites-will-be | strutheo | 🧑💻Which Websites/Apps will have a significant unintended outage due to DDOS or other reason in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 352.480798 | YES | 68177e8a321b | |
k72ub8ysw5 | false | xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mf44yijd1l",
"label": "IsaacCarruthers",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ''",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "Resolves YES if there are more then 2,000 active daily users in January 2025 (monthly average). ''' - ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "well, it says DAU first and then in the brackets effectively says MAU. Not really clear.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Scipio Fabius | gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta | public | contract | 1,716,916,696,927 | will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac | ScipioFabius | Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025? | 25unwbe9x3z | 0.548823 | 162.127108 | YES | null | |
gzc0ycej12n | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nbvbazupupj",
"label": "Gen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I should also add, I think closing pregame for something like NFL would encourage more limit orders, too. I have been burned M10k multiple times because I left limit orders on sports markets and miscalculated the start time bc of timezones or simply forgot to set the order to cancel.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "edit: also, in dollar terms it seems like a worthwhile investment to maintain at least 1 market for sporting events and concentrating activity there until it is profitable. 64 traders cared about this, which is a good sign that it ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "could",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " be very profitable if we see volumes increase post-prize additions.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Genzy | vuoMr6LMdDZ94zQJ3BXL | public | contract | 1,716,916,704,354 | f1-who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at | Gen | F1: Who will finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | fvwh1m1ofpe | null | 766.62579 | NO | bfb76f998bc5 | |
uzpgb8qy12 | false | 1CRaxVu0I9XNhYzRLh18yVEKa4G2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "z7v72anpa6",
"label": "AkramChoudhary",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Can you expand on your timeline here?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Domer | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,716,916,791,336 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | Domer | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | egfo8y2oez | null | null | null | null | |
btxq7pu92ma | false | em5cYfHRh1b5qu1hgpfZiNqOELr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As a German I can ensure you that this probability is 0. It stays this way when changing the resolution time to the end of the century.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gideon | TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO | public | contract | 1,716,916,813,211 | will-germany-recognize-the-state-of-b158182bb5a4 | Gideon37 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgWS0P6It5V1UWwE65A1u9nwHfxpp1TvnxyGgqr54x=s96-c | Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain? | null | 0.221488 | 308.520556 | NO | null |
u78643z15d | false | T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pod0efi8ixm",
"label": "jskf",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " deleting Dick Schoof would be best ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The Wabi Sabi | 4kW57vyqqXm1cEEodZSc | public | contract | 1,716,917,158,936 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3 | TheWabiSabi | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | r8ju8m8gfuh | null | 3,040.95598 | YES | d0efd43a5048 | |
ovbdbsiv7ln | false | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "r6bzy5g0h2j",
"label": "ClubmasterTransparent",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes! The feed algorithm has changed substantially and is still getting tweaked a bit. I’m glad it is showing you more cool things you like, thanks for letting us know!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Genzy | d7XsIoCA4DTmYPYqA2v3 | public | contract | 1,716,917,208,312 | will-travis-kelce-propose-to-taylor-57c114a6005a | Gen | Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift on the 13th of any month? | r6bzy5g0h2j | 0.258317 | 527.10881 | YES | null | |
8grha8khhh6 | false | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "u78643z15d",
"label": "TheWabiSabi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I've closed the market for now. If this is affecting all MC markets it's a major issue and I assume/hope they'll backfill it. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | jskf | 4kW57vyqqXm1cEEodZSc | public | contract | 1,716,917,426,084 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3 | jskf | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | r8ju8m8gfuh | null | 2,828.899177 | YES | b5967a8f3430 | |
sm73mxl8gxh | false | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Today, the Kennedy campaign announced that they turned in enough signatures for ballot access in NY. They say RFK Jr. is now on the ballot or has enough signatures for the ballot in 16 states, totaling 229 electoral college votes. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_signatures_historic_ballot_access_victory_new_york",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_signatures_historic_ballot_access_victory_new_york",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm not sure why Florida was not included in this list, but Kennedy previously announced ballot access in Florida via the Reform Party. Florida has an additional 30 EV. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_reform_party_nomination_ballot_access_florida",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_reform_party_nomination_ballot_access_florida",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Including Florida, Kennedy would now have enough signatures for the ballot or already be on the ballot in 17 states equalling 259 EV.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | GeorgeBishop | 6tH4hCf3kWtXWA64lMnu | public | contract | 1,716,917,550,343 | will-rfk-qualify-for-the-6272024-pr | BishopG | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBishopG%2F1D_cdCVOPt.48?alt=media&token=c56ab372-9448-4062-bdec-8efc816c754e | Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 6/27/2024 presidential debate on CNN? | null | null | null | null | null |
9smrlz6rzru | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " mattyb market, mind extending the close date a few days? ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "billboard album list",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " not updated until tomorrow. (also fine to leave it closed until then, just figured i'd ask as usually matty left these open, nbd either way) ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | yuNXsWVFBW77Jl6orbL2 | public | contract | 1,716,917,710,254 | will-billie-eilishs-upcoming-album | Ziddletwix | Will Billie Eilish’s upcoming album, Hit Me Hard and Soft, debut at #1 on Billboard 200? | null | 0.152475 | 1,673.362361 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.