id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
idf7rb35irp | false | 0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " China and Belarus resolve YES, proofs in a duplicate market ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "LZGqdKZdEJcOVoM4tVwQ",
"label": "/PS/what-countries-will-vladimir-putin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Seo Sanghyeon | wjYxeliFHE7HrrI3MykB | public | contract | 1,716,868,022,681 | what-countries-will-vladimir-putin-b2f514fc62c8 | SanghyeonSeo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c | What countries will Vladimir Putin visit during 2024? | null | null | 100.000154 | YES | 931c8ec3a68a |
n4am4isxq9 | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "re: adopted vs biological parent correlations with offspring income, one source is the Sacerdote paper discussed here: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/08/the-inheritance-of-education.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/08/the-inheritance-of-education.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Ray | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,868,109,141 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | JonathanRay | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 28,407.958766 | YES | 37f0747697e3 | |
gzyjj98oyfe | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves yes",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8KP1J8jMJY.54?alt=media&token=fc05b43d-9391-48fc-9fc7-6c9158c302ad",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbOLIT6X1vk.54?alt=media&token=7d7124fd-0eb0-4f18-bb2c-e02644c851f8",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | rlbPYI8OAlcpXEb3ndCV | public | contract | 1,716,868,478,951 | manifold-cash-prizes-via-sweepstake | nikki | Manifold Cash Prizes via Sweepstakes Prop Bets | null | null | 529.34105 | YES | b43e52a7f68f | |
zv3s665fs1 | false | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "670zqqinu8i",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " yeah! I feel pretty good too. I think most of these markets are too close to 50% rn",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Conflux | VBBKCn88HlLMlinFsoNN | public | contract | 1,716,868,591,703 | prop-bets-conflux-caught-a-cold | Conflux | Prop Bets: Conflux Caught a Cold | 670zqqinu8i | null | null | null | null | |
yqsd6rzuywp | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zv3s665fs1",
"label": "Conflux",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If only I wasn't at 30 mana",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | VBBKCn88HlLMlinFsoNN | public | contract | 1,716,868,793,467 | prop-bets-conflux-caught-a-cold | Bayesian | Prop Bets: Conflux Caught a Cold | 670zqqinu8i | null | 265.472153 | NO | 82504e74e8a9 | |
kzsyapnz5a | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zv3s665fs1",
"label": "Conflux",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " but I'm glad!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | VBBKCn88HlLMlinFsoNN | public | contract | 1,716,868,816,453 | prop-bets-conflux-caught-a-cold | Bayesian | Prop Bets: Conflux Caught a Cold | 670zqqinu8i | null | 265.472153 | NO | 82504e74e8a9 | |
oh2ffya6rm | false | iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "adms4fm94yr",
"label": "IsaacCarruthers",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think it’s monthly average of daily active users. So it would be no today, I believe",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dominic de Bettencourt | gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta | public | contract | 1,716,869,114,340 | will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac | dominic | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c | Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025? | 25unwbe9x3z | 0.751993 | 49.61321 | YES | null |
c8w2vbb1aza | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "op09537p0xq",
"label": "SemioticRivalry",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Dammit lol ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | 5Q1XRKptefwcVNRzgt5O | public | contract | 1,716,869,186,201 | who-will-the-russian-authorities-bl | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Who will the Russian authorities officially blame for the terror attack on Moscow? | 4qc34pqjlyd | null | 561.879924 | YES | 7c8fa72d99fa |
3lfkmmx1s7 | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "wtf…? Tatum was better ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | IsVRxA34jXGwNR7Ck2fo | public | contract | 1,716,869,300,799 | who-will-win-nba-eastern-conference | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Who will win NBA Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | null | null | 506.094183 | NO | d388b49d4264 |
ivrw8x0pyea | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3lfkmmx1s7",
"label": "benshindel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Maybe they think he’ll win finals MVP",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | IsVRxA34jXGwNR7Ck2fo | public | contract | 1,716,869,309,434 | who-will-win-nba-eastern-conference | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Who will win NBA Eastern Conference Finals MVP? | 3lfkmmx1s7 | null | 506.094183 | NO | d388b49d4264 |
69o71ekp11a | false | o1tQ3ntGCkYAPLBvQABsoIqOaMz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "adms4fm94yr",
"label": "IsaacCarruthers",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " my understanding is for the chart “Daily” is DAU, “Daily (7d avg)” is average DAU for trailing 7 days, “Weekly” is WAU, and “Monthly” is MAU. Based on the question, it seems like we should average the “Daily” values for the month of January 2025.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Robert Sutherland | gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta | public | contract | 1,716,869,383,312 | will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac | RobertSutherland | Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025? | 25unwbe9x3z | 0.751993 | 1,617.376277 | NO | null | |
1j94smylghf | false | D3MeAINv5uMz6cDoiGSOcU1U1TG3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3a0eiqufwbg",
"label": "PlasmaBallin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Well, I mean, the literal moral of the story is that it's the SJWs who are the real fascists around here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chaos | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,716,869,731,902 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | chaos | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | 3a0eiqufwbg | null | 2,989.24158 | NO | 7d119d917665 | |
hw9hm9ba0xu | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "These results are confusing to me",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,716,869,824,256 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 256.320267 | NO | 9a979d73d700 |
rk6b58ahix | false | kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "27vzxk9vi9v",
"label": "Awex",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Grey Box | WnjjxxZ7N0ls3WJB1BXm | public | contract | 1,716,869,983,554 | ipl-match-winner-super-market-yes-f | GreyBox | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c | 🏏 IPL Match Winner Super Market. “Yes” for the first team to win, “No” for the second. 50 Mana bonus per game. | dbgvgt2m2ml | null | 6,407.547061 | YES | 9ea524821bdd |
5f486f6r6ps | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FVb7uALXDbv.jpeg?alt=media&token=3f119db3-44e3-436e-bab3-a8f836969afa",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hegel and his ideas are literally left-wing",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,716,870,173,691 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 256.320267 | NO | 9a979d73d700 |
yayjakrr86q | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2",
"label": "MichaelWheatley",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " why do you throw your puny self in the path of the joint Ammon/Strutheo juggernaut.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | nMvJZRng1IbLXd2ebOnI | public | contract | 1,716,870,320,076 | will-ammon-and-strutheo-work-on-a-s | ClubmasterTransparent | Will Ammon and @Strutheo work on a startup project together before the end of 2026? | null | 0.617467 | 15.360915 | YES | null | |
xejfrl6yvh | false | SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "aijbto4lflg",
"label": "ClubmasterTransparent",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " You tagged me in and asked me a question. Have a block to ensure that never happens again.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Eliezer Yudkowsky | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,870,437,175 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | EliezerYudkowsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrJG8Ay-yrvNsp-sZCoQMge2UwXm6PX7H6OTgmpPg=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | ise8ff9mf6 | null | null | null | null |
ks30uvk9k6s | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-manifold-shut-down",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel | gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta | public | contract | 1,716,870,730,000 | will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025? | null | null | null | null | null |
xhugmm7aol | false | iURMorODksQFcnUl3bIjxFqSRK73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not TAS, but multiple people seem to be working on something adjacent here for competing with human real-time runs?",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kojH8a7BW04&pp=ygUNdHJhY2ttYW5pYSBhaQ%3D%3D",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kojH8a7BW04",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUojVsCJ51I",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUojVsCJ51I",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | NoUsernameSelected | dIsP60Gf6jGS0XDUz1cK | public | contract | 1,716,871,172,263 | will-an-ai-system-beat-human-perfor | NoUsernameSelected | Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025? | null | 0.138116 | 30.916139 | YES | null | |
hre39t0dl3u | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1794818870571671786",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | S5yhlDdgRykQJuEMOWFN | public | contract | 1,716,871,903,326 | relationship-style-stonks | shankypanky | Relationship Style Stonks | null | null | 1,606.076221 | YES | b68d056cb61c | |
4mnfznrn9w | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "oh, okay",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsJPvHGiVAz.png?alt=media&token=a3b6a31e-05f6-4099-ada7-37e8e7299c44",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,871,969,717 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | shankypanky | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | null | null | null | null | null | |
qq0qnmwgc4k | false | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " 2",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Traveel | yfMTgsj1c1my9Yt2TIRC | public | contract | 1,716,872,484,413 | daily-coinflip-889a3fef5d9f | Traveel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | Daily coinflip | null | 50 | 23.059991 | YES | null |
0wjf3ms21slg | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Traveel",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Traveel",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2, inclusive. Coming up shortly!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Source: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "GitHub",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", previous round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4048048",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4048048",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "latest",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4048050",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4048050",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", salt: qq0qnmwgc4k.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | yfMTgsj1c1my9Yt2TIRC | public | contract | 1,716,872,487,601 | daily-coinflip-889a3fef5d9f | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
snf3416puso | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": 3,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Traveel",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "@Traveel",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " your random number is: 2",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "heading"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Salt: qq0qnmwgc4k, round: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": null,
"href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4048050",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "4048050",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " (signature a2ec5988882b0d666e1f44e81fdc8cab9a0db118c13c951ada34448006d5a6b46ee71738a1d4e968efedad53daaab99a0fe847929d93dc35f8ec9ceb49a099ee252c9bea4b0c676114afc103cc4382c6760c99dedaa5a3520f1abac2274079b9)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | FairlyRandom | yfMTgsj1c1my9Yt2TIRC | public | contract | 1,716,872,524,394 | daily-coinflip-889a3fef5d9f | FairlyRandom | Daily coinflip | null | null | null | null | null | |
jh59vx1e2wp | false | GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not sure in what world Anthropic can be considered to contribute more than Nvidia. Just one of Nvidia’s research labs outputs more than Anthropic ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://research.nvidia.com/labs/toronto-ai/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://research.nvidia.com/labs/toronto-ai/",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": "NVIDIA Toronto AI lab",
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "142955d3-a40a-49d3-957b-0a002da66abf",
"image": "https://research.nvidia.com/labs/toronto-ai/images/icon_hue2b4f39268973137f7515ab51d9d69f8_10431_512x512_fill_lanczos_center_2.png",
"inputKey": "comment JoKOuHebLuGKni0Qfy8jcomment 53es8omfb4h",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "NVIDIA Toronto AI Lab",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://research.nvidia.com/labs/toronto-ai/"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | capy | JoKOuHebLuGKni0Qfy8j | public | contract | 1,716,873,642,923 | which-3-ai-labscompanies-will-make | capybara | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660 | Which 3 AI labs/companies will make the most impact in 2024 (technical contributions to the field of AI)? | 53es8omfb4h | null | 1,938.771899 | YES | abdc1c2071e3 |
t08tk6wkwka | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5f486f6r6ps",
"label": "benshindel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't think ChatGPT is a good way to judge that, but I agree that in my experience, he seems to be more associated with the left than the right. But then again, maybe that's just because academia, and by extension philosophers in general, are associated with the left. What are people's arguments for why Hegel is actually right wing?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,716,874,246,315 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | PlasmaBallin | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | 5f486f6r6ps | null | 529.468239 | YES | fe4488ef81bd | |
snm60umay3 | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hw9hm9ba0xu",
"label": "benshindel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " why?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,716,874,311,008 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | PlasmaBallin | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | hw9hm9ba0xu | null | 529.468239 | YES | fe4488ef81bd | |
oturt920vs | false | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "36nqolajozq",
"label": "RanaG",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Resolves to a partial % based on spatial extent if sea level and elevation are sufficiently close together that physical barriers can make a difference. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Generally speaking, dykes don’t work in coastal Florida because it’s all limestone, so the water just goes right under the barrier.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Archibald Crone | zTp5cVeCRixLD9mMDTZk | public | contract | 1,716,874,337,459 | what-parts-of-florida-will-be-under | BlueDragon | What parts of Florida will be under water by 2100? [ ADD RESPONSES ] | 36nqolajozq | null | null | null | null | |
crog3zmq5lv | false | rJPK2TB4POcH8bn4TUuwyLJKeqn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/24/24164119/google-ai-overview-mistakes-search-race-openai",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/24/24164119/google-ai-overview-mistakes-search-race-openai",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pi7on | x07rd3JfAdK5faELuDna | public | contract | 1,716,874,462,051 | will-google-pause-or-remove-ai-over | Pi7on | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJCxfXwZZAwvr2LyR6l4qj5eqj516p4_rOZVgbaPQ2Wn-ezvIn7BA=s96-c | Will Google pause or remove AI Overviews by the end of May? | null | 0.305874 | 172.111433 | YES | null |
jfz56mvbag9 | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1j94smylghf",
"label": "chaos",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " How so? Wasn't the villain's entire goal to unite the racial majority by demonizing the minority? Doesn't sound like an SJW to me.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,716,874,620,181 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | PlasmaBallin | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | 3a0eiqufwbg | null | 529.468239 | YES | fe4488ef81bd | |
hfrotm42k6 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4mnfznrn9w",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " No way",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,875,298,976 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | Bayesian | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | 4mnfznrn9w | null | null | null | null | |
itu103h4tal | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/an-important-warning-for-crypto-currency-investors-this-may-be-a-scam-coin/articleshow/110469179.cms",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/an-important-warning-for-crypto-currency-investors-this-may-be-a-scam-coin/articleshow/110469179.cms",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1244536823569580061/1244890007437840464",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/1244536823569580061/1244890007437840464",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "By her own admission, even after Sahil drops his involvement, she will still with consent promote $jenner. She was not hacked to do this, she was convinced of a business deal that was going to get her money. It's likely a rug pull, but it was with Caitlyn Jenners consent. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7sdFCD0b2g.png?alt=media&token=21ade38f-29b3-4811-a61c-8f428f1b8d31",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fedor | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,875,457,422 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | Fedor | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | null | null | null | null | null | |
uij5hq3l2ng | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Breaking news: Egypt signs a peace treaty with Israel!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | EUnfA8BDjbkrVSm2dfGD | public | contract | 1,716,875,464,800 | will-egypt-attack-israel-in-retalia | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Egypt attack Israel in retaliation for the death of an Egyptian soldier at the Rafah border, by June 14th? | null | null | null | null | null |
toa7nkmk5fg | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrV3N53JaEK.png?alt=media&token=87682943-b79c-42ed-8ff3-7f94d8dd364c",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Confusion",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | 1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu | public | contract | 1,716,875,626,025 | was-caitlyn-jenner-hacked-to-post-a | Bayesian | Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency? | 4mnfznrn9w | null | null | null | null | |
br3b1c0cj5w | false | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nil9utl7jer",
"label": "DavidFWatson",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think you are correct about the definition of L5, but other factors might prevent the ride in practice. Regulatory issues for example or simply that the service provider doesn't want their vehicles to end up in the boonies. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm more bothered by the fact that it's one of the top cities. Driving in LA on a sunny day seems like a much easier problem than in LA during a snowstorm when lane markings might be covered.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Enlil | hdWDcQuy1aDtknfgZe64 | public | contract | 1,716,875,883,499 | will-fully-autonomous-level-5-selfd | Enlil | Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030? | fmnc9kzwc6p | null | null | null | null | |
bianwkt89z | false | 3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0tyq0u67owqi",
"label": "LeonardoKr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isar Bhattacharjee | IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O | public | contract | 1,716,877,742,022 | will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20 | IsarBhattacharjee | Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? | 0tyq0u67owqi | 0.198917 | 122,179.080311 | YES | null | |
b27rkduc3rg | false | vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "br009e1a0tr",
"label": "Mana",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The definition of person does not require them to exist in real life. Fantasy people are still people.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | shadowyzephyr | cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3 | public | contract | 1,716,878,480,318 | prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1 | ShadowyZephyr | Trump & Biden June 27th Debate Prop Bets (Add your own) | br009e1a0tr | null | 149.589317 | YES | 8fb7cd64352d | |
ic1pkehwhz | false | vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kc6t5oaipt",
"label": "Snarflak",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Because, if there is no presidential debate, all answers in the market resolve N/A, per the description. So, this option could only ever resolve NO or N/A, meaning it would just be free mana on NO anyway, which I don't think is what they were intending.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | shadowyzephyr | cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3 | public | contract | 1,716,878,566,187 | prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1 | ShadowyZephyr | Trump & Biden June 27th Debate Prop Bets (Add your own) | kc6t5oaipt | null | 149.589317 | YES | 8fb7cd64352d | |
glji7xlsoap | false | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "84az9hlzfj",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Not at all! I found your reasoning brilliantly funny;",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "GIVEN AI more dangerous = more focus (as per t-bird), ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "THEN Alignment team quitting = AI less dangerous?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gaz Downright | i95HLfK9N6hu5H7orfNj | public | contract | 1,716,878,878,061 | will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r | GazDownright | Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | 5bjn7hwy2mb | null | null | null | null | |
0ud4xwpmm72 | false | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oh",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I thought this market was dead lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So yeah ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " that makes sense, actually I thought all Mana earned before the pivot would be multiplied by 10 on leaderboards and balances would stay unchanged, but it seems the exact opposite happened",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mich | Vk4ONrAUILuNsWwN8fI2 | public | contract | 1,716,879,352,683 | how-many-users-among-the-top-10-in | Mich | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | How many users among the top 10 in Masters League right after the new Mana rates take effect will maintain in Masters ? | null | null | 0 | YES | 06a7f0504d76 |
on06eydwfho | false | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0Ur5ygwy20.jpeg?alt=media&token=79632839-e36c-4874-9603-6c6a0aac8f54",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Screenshot on May 17th, 8:16 AM London time",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The top 10 here is the list of « right-after-pivot » that will be used for resolution, unless someone can provide a list that is posterior to the pivot but less time after it than mine.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mich | Vk4ONrAUILuNsWwN8fI2 | public | contract | 1,716,879,580,414 | how-many-users-among-the-top-10-in | Mich | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | How many users among the top 10 in Masters League right after the new Mana rates take effect will maintain in Masters ? | null | null | 0 | YES | 06a7f0504d76 |
wdu5nhbjjur | false | EwhWtm4vwqZwxqVFrIL61ieAOU52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "what happens if Trump says something like \"if it's a fair and just election, then I will concede\"? bc I think if he does say something, going the plausible deniability route seems the most likely. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | João Bosco Lucena | cscjHo7n8eHj3WGH3fr3 | public | contract | 1,716,879,904,306 | prop-bets-on-trumpbiden-debate-1 | jBosc | Trump & Biden June 27th Debate Prop Bets (Add your own) | null | null | 203.296316 | YES | 8b7900d3e254 | |
sec6p7z59sb | false | X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1",
"label": "MarioFSchlitzer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " please resolve 68k YES, thanks.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6kWFzpv9tS.png?alt=media&token=41f71947-78af-4ff8-a01a-ac0470fc2206",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel Tello | 7ayelBT238vPqNkUHe9R | public | contract | 1,716,880,081,941 | will-the-price-of-bitcoin-btc-fall | deagol | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c | Will the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fall below the following thresholds at any point before the end of May 2024? | null | null | 1,500.300444 | YES | 89046d6e9add |
otaanzlgwwj | false | wB4jFQ7f3JeC7kfeeGBSfKbegXS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "“xAI is pleased to announce our series B funding round of $6 billion.”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.ai/blog/series-b",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.ai/blog/series-b",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | T P | jg3qGqhmfiyzhFbZwnqN | public | contract | 1,716,880,341,333 | will-xai-raise-a-major-100m-fundrai | TP8ac2 | Will xAI do a large (>$100M) fundraising round in 2024? | null | 0.904839 | 304.224703 | YES | null | |
l0zbnqh4u5e | false | PzffhWO2EAPX4gSPjjOfaDWZqPH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Isn’t it tine to resolve this to aYES?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Marty E | p9klp1LUsgzBbaK0rDSg | public | contract | 1,716,881,659,489 | will-apple-vision-pro-be-a-flop | MartyE | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKm9tOmDR0lkacwNdUNeTYyxpv_osOOAr5MWbe36IKBW6b-=s96-c | Will Apple Vision Pro be a flop? | null | 0.71 | 155.277753 | YES | null |
5wbespj7alj | false | G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is a weird question. So the return of anti cross dressing laws would count? I think realistically what happens is that hormones are banned for transition related purposes, either legally or by a change in psychiatric standards, and then possibly estrogen becomes a scheduled substance which is allowed for sex congruent uses but nothing else. This is still really bad but doesn't seem to meet your definition. Anti-crossdressing laws actually already exist in some places but are unlikely to emerge in a broader capacity imho except maybe in specific places like courthouses (this would be someplace in the United States but I assume you meant an entire state or municipality at minimum)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jessica Evans | 2ieeZPjkflMFtcqhskjV | public | contract | 1,716,882,042,078 | will-it-be-illegal-to-be-openly-tra | JessicaEvans | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
el6j7wdx9sl | false | G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5wbespj7alj",
"label": "JessicaEvans",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Also, what if one is merely ticketed and then referred to court where the defacto punishment is inpatient psychiatric treatment? Does this satisfy your conditions?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jessica Evans | 2ieeZPjkflMFtcqhskjV | public | contract | 1,716,882,139,352 | will-it-be-illegal-to-be-openly-tra | JessicaEvans | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030? | 5wbespj7alj | null | null | null | null |
jvaifsfsqp | false | IjeF8SnswyVYyhE6tQXycX4W7K03 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Orbiting good times",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": "",
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://media0.giphy.com/media/UvWllmm27ZaNbRpv2n/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1cavi9mc3h5m9j2ob4fhetp0j4xrttohl5ehzqrq3it&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Roshan | kRSVOitRSPT8SMz3h3YD | public | contract | 1,716,882,443,454 | will-there-be-a-permanent-bar-pub-o | RoshanSSrinivasan | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKt6d7gGSbssNUQzcX44GxG8It4X9egRqr_-isVoBv1MMegrKPlyg=s96-c | Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050? | null | 0.254824 | 104.761421 | NO | null |
36fwi2m8dy3 | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Farage speech at 10am, does anyone think he's changed his mind already?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | skdZO536AdXDFIHG9KDd | public | contract | 1,716,883,767,437 | will-nigel-farage-stand-for-westmin | Noit | Will Nigel Farage stand for Westminster at the election? | null | 0.10582 | 301.204523 | NO | null | |
jmvahr1f158 | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Suggested resolution criteria (Written by GPT-4o: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolution Criteria",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t1.\tData Sources:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t•\tThe primary sources of data will be the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t•\tIf available, supplementary data may be considered from large-scale health studies conducted by reputable institutions such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH) or peer-reviewed medical journals.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t2.\tMeasurement Period:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t•\tData must be collected for the entire calendar year of 2024 and the entire calendar year of 2025.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t•\tInterim or partial-year data will not be considered.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t3.\tPopulation:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t•\tThe data must cover a representative sample of the entire U.S. adult population, ages 18 and over.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\t•\tData should be adjusted for demographic variables including age, gender, and ethnicity to ensure it accurately reflects the population.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Elliot Davies | JIREI2uPpX9R83moyas4 | public | contract | 1,716,884,301,846 | will-the-average-weight-of-american | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will the average weight of Americans decrease between 2024 and 2025 | null | null | null | null | null |
zcfjkz7et4h | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I believe this resolves NO (poor SLIM 😭)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1795310224548798726",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nat | bS5vGPnHumw2TtHPjDT8 | public | contract | 1,716,884,558,815 | will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-28471d95c174 | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander "Moon Sniper" survive a 4th lunar night? | null | 0.809104 | 16.211094 | YES | null |
rks3duzixj | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zcfjkz7et4h",
"label": "Nat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " On the bright side, they're still gonna try again next month so fingers crossed it's not the end 🤞 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nat | bS5vGPnHumw2TtHPjDT8 | public | contract | 1,716,884,643,041 | will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-28471d95c174 | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander "Moon Sniper" survive a 4th lunar night? | zcfjkz7et4h | 0.809104 | 16.211094 | YES | null |
nml1eiizjrg | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1nf75w60xgh",
"label": "JonathanRay",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "> Musk is at least 99th percentile in intelligence and 99.999 percentile in work ethic. The latter is underappreciated as a source of his success. Not so many are motivated to keep on working 120 hour weeks after they become billionaires.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In fairness, I do know a few people like that (well, replace \"billionaires\" with \"rich enough they could easily never work again\"). They're fairly successful but not Musk-level, so in fairness he does have ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "some",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " element of luck/scammy salesmanship going on. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If we assume Musk is 1 in a billion successful (This is probably overselling it - he's very impressive but I could probably come up with a hundred people in the world who are comparable in their own fields), that's about 9 OOMs. 1-2 of those probably do come from UMC upbringing, then about 6 from being smart and hardworking which leaves about 3 for luck/unreasonable hype.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,885,830,162 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 77.032493 | NO | fdb3f2d22989 |
j2sonojvx3o | false | ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There are news that France is considering sending its instructors to Ukraine: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://t.me/osirskiy/702",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://t.me/osirskiy/702",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". If this decision is made, it will resolve this question.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Oleg Eterevsky | kZXjYFXfsL7pxNgrFizV | public | contract | 1,716,886,367,278 | will-any-country-admit-to-sending-t | OlegEterevsky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c | Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
a516trlforg | false | xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "25unwbe9x3z",
"label": "RobertSutherland",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The market description says monthly average MAU, but the picture in the description shows DAU. Its probably meant DAU due tovthe number specificed (2000).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Scipio Fabius | gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta | public | contract | 1,716,889,282,564 | will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac | ScipioFabius | Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025? | 25unwbe9x3z | null | null | null | null | |
vjq3eypl4og | false | E6Fkkjn0hXekRqffRjk9JXxsZ8x1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I don’t understand the resolution yet, is it that you will use some AI systems to forecast the ACX forecasts and then compare the best performing one to the distribution of human results? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Max | 14108tFiO1xISEJOgJR1 | public | contract | 1,716,889,463,668 | when-will-ais-be-good-at-predicting | Maxx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjanP8MK9SUn4MaeTFW8zYJtSKTxDsj0SXai_JqaA=s96-c | When will AIs be good at predicting the future? | null | null | null | null | null |
gzn6q805d9j | false | 6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vjq3eypl4og",
"label": "Maxx",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " That, or if someone else makes an AI system and participates.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Patrik Cihal | 14108tFiO1xISEJOgJR1 | public | contract | 1,716,889,563,853 | when-will-ais-be-good-at-predicting | patrik | When will AIs be good at predicting the future? | vjq3eypl4og | null | 317.644279 | NO | e76c606db8e4 | |
xe1ahqzg0o | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n4am4isxq9",
"label": "JonathanRay",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " there's also evidence showing that parental behaviour matters enormously for socioeconomic status and that environment has a significant influence e.g. when both adoptive parents are overweight, the likelihood of an adopted child being overweight is between 10% and 20% higher than when they are not, and that having a full-time working mother significantly increases the impact of an obese father on the likelihood of the child being overweight or obese",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/712446",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/712446",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/nature-versus-nurture-obesity-new-evidence-adoptee-data",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/nature-versus-nurture-obesity-new-evidence-adoptee-data",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Also kids of different racial backgrounds adopted into white families still have to contend with societal racism on a massive scale.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,889,590,545 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
2k43479mznr | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ed6uulzjsbo",
"label": "nathanwei",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " hoooo boy, you have a lot to learn about 20th century British history",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,889,817,860 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
u0vimvoi7oe | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nml1eiizjrg",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " also this is another major problem with \"Ray\"'s argument, he delusionally believes that given the opportunity everyone would want to do what Musk does. Actually they very much do not. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,716,890,028,798 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | Lorelai | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | lgq1fdgda18 | null | 1,544.244817 | YES | 59a364c55d2c | |
dfv03hgqujv | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2",
"label": "LivInTheLookingGlass",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Resolves NO",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | MSMOQNzERuSxf35PtoFZ | public | contract | 1,716,890,817,192 | will-joe-manchin-run-for-senate-nex | PlasmaBallin | Will Joe Manchin run for Senate next cycle? | null | 0.140025 | 2,133.642043 | NO | null | |
i7n9e9q8mk | false | zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "When I click the \"N changes today\" link from the profit graph in my profile, I get incorrect numbers. E.g. below, net worth is 0 while it should be positive. Also below the profit today is positive, but according to the graph in my profile profit today is negative. Also below, the G.O.A.T question profit is positive for today though the question already resolved 2 days ago.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiMLRbp9G5N.png?alt=media&token=bd7793a8-ba50-40f9-b6cc-566379ada9bd",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Goodgulf | ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI | public | contract | 1,716,891,131,686 | bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs | Goodgulf | Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs | null | null | null | null | null | |
pp0b0zr6mab | false | zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Then if I sum the column of 1d profits from the list of my trades, below, I again get a different number (>200 vs +136 in the list above or -366 in my profit graph). So there are at least 3 different numbers given for 1d profits.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fh7SQBmcyMk.png?alt=media&token=274e220d-b89a-4ab9-b364-0678ab2d98e0",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Goodgulf | ro3tpgrVliDMJlmtT2cI | public | contract | 1,716,892,047,425 | bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs | Goodgulf | Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs | i7n9e9q8mk | null | null | null | null | |
n68rgt3d0hi | false | fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6azgn2fy7l",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " it's as safe as it has ever been. The dangers are still theoretical, and it doesn't make sense to assume they will show up all of a sudden, especially the existential ones -- they will come from the increases in capability, and that won't happen suddenly.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Microsoft pulled their model because it was generating racially biased pictures. We won't simply wake up one day with an AI that is controlling and harming humans and whose cord we cannot pull.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | t-bird | i95HLfK9N6hu5H7orfNj | public | contract | 1,716,892,560,453 | will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r | tbird | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c | Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | 5bjn7hwy2mb | 0.149329 | 58.321426 | NO | null |
bxe7a8dirlp | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is there a version of this for later? Like 2035 ?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | 0RH5GmobQZXu65lUteZk | public | contract | 1,716,892,655,066 | will-germany-recognize-the-state-of | RemNi | Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
k79sq713z2c | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I've seen lots of memes, references, and comedy about how often people return the Apple Vision Pro. I don't think I've ever seen anything positive about it. I'm sure some people really like it, but the public narrative is clearly pretty negative about it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold | p9klp1LUsgzBbaK0rDSg | public | contract | 1,716,892,822,635 | will-apple-vision-pro-be-a-flop | Tumbles | Will Apple Vision Pro be a flop? | null | 0.71 | 410.765607 | YES | null | |
194mqb2stx | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Axios is reporting on a yet-to-be-released OpenAI blog post that says superalignment work is continuing: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.axios.com/2024/05/28/openai-safety-new-model",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.axios.com/2024/05/28/openai-safety-new-model",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dan | f422ZIhxUC0QqQBiaKMQ | public | contract | 1,716,893,252,847 | will-openai-still-be-doing-superali | DanMan314 | Will OpenAI still be doing Superalignment in June 2024? | null | 0.065992 | 4,323.530755 | YES | null | |
qngdo8qpli | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Axios and Bloomberg are reporting that superalignment is moving under Schulman: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.axios.com/2024/05/28/openai-safety-new-model",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.axios.com/2024/05/28/openai-safety-new-model",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dan | nbXPMHeul2jvUCzpG7vv | public | contract | 1,716,893,274,967 | who-will-lead-superalignment-at-ope | DanMan314 | Who will lead Superalignment at OpenAI on July 1? | null | null | 1,459.562412 | YES | cf1db8e96e5b | |
0g7nsoxd4f7b | false | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "l0zbnqh4u5e",
"label": "MartyE",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Narratives evolve over time, seems to me this question has an implicit \"... on the resolution date.\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | MRN | p9klp1LUsgzBbaK0rDSg | public | contract | 1,716,893,526,041 | will-apple-vision-pro-be-a-flop | MRN267 | Will Apple Vision Pro be a flop? | l0zbnqh4u5e | 0.71 | 1.751989 | NO | null | |
a8yvv15vcu6 | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not in Joe Biden's America! This is why it is important for all voting!!! We are not letting the rights of men to be trampled!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | KB20XEhjjHdpOu1smsBN | public | contract | 1,716,895,295,902 | will-the-grimace-shake-return-to-mc-acfe4e36daed | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will the Grimace shake return to McDonald's in the United States in 2025? | null | 0.412333 | 92.10715 | YES | null |
fo3gcg3103u | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "80kg squat today 💪 - No buyers should be frightened",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Going to the UK for a week which might interupt training - but good news is I'll be working out with ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "italic"
}
],
"text": "Mother.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Elliot Davies | ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm | public | contract | 1,716,895,295,982 | will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
c4hq2n9k0q9 | false | B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fo3gcg3103u",
"label": "ElliotDavies",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I suspect I could squat 85kg by next week, but I'll likely take the weight off and just build up some endurance",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Elliot Davies | ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm | public | contract | 1,716,895,469,073 | will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b | ElliotDavies | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c | Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024? | fo3gcg3103u | null | null | null | null |
fstsk8yrc9a | false | 0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/first-meal-eaten-moon-was-bacon-180950457/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "The First Meal Eaten on the Moon Was Bacon",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Seo Sanghyeon | cYTvV7VPSm8xz2FajmmL | public | contract | 1,716,895,815,756 | what-items-will-be-included-in-the | SanghyeonSeo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c | What items will be included in the first meal eaten on the Martian surface? | null | null | null | null | null |
iaqjpu9h7zm | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bumpo",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | blonK9LG9gO1i0ByBdv0 | public | contract | 1,716,896,099,614 | will-china-win-the-most-gold-medals | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will China win the most gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | null | 0.294383 | 32.061862 | NO | null |
z38jfw5rec | false | LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "11vzzwb5oo9",
"label": "vitamind",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I’ll count 3/4 over",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Enrico Susatyo | f6zkdXj9ZbuGNXLNCQYO | public | contract | 1,716,896,121,075 | will-there-be-a-picture-of-bald-kat | esusatyo | Will there be a picture of bald Kate Middleton after her chemotherapy treatment? | 11vzzwb5oo9 | null | null | null | null | |
sh2dypdbhi8 | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "40%? LMFAO 🤣 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF | public | contract | 1,716,896,220,114 | which-country-will-win-euro-2024 | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Which country will win Euro 2024? | null | null | 355.986578 | YES | ad8831fd5f15 |
gksnu0qge2p | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's been at 90% for what, half a day now. Stop the count :P",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fedor | DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ | public | contract | 1,716,896,753,239 | will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha | Fedor | Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | null | null | 11,285.656036 | YES | 17782aca1998 | |
z28xlra4g58 | false | bPlUxP9ZLFNfshz5dKtKzbS3aYO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not the Home edition.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Rüzgar Şanlı | 03BYT7XVcmldz4rHby72 | public | contract | 1,716,896,774,203 | will-windows-12-require-an-active-s | RuzgarSanli | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKflBcKhF03DHjVhEqbK9NTBHa5bpOfUVXJMXOOUb-ZjnncN9Hz=s96-c | Will Windows 12 require an active subscription? | null | 50 | 128.339435 | NO | null |
3o7pnmopvse | false | yQJobnzBK3aJFoYH6jl8Ns1M2Di2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "o5f7i1kvwni",
"label": "wabz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " It's not even a question of who will win. Real Madrid is good because the officials are on their side, that's it. Dortmund outplays them one hundred percent.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hans Koch | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,716,896,776,882 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | HansKoch | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7hFX4KMfBUEsfWkR5M2v6T2xtOT8VaheyE7hqwyx6ryg5cw=s96-c | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | 5uefgxxb957 | 0.276623 | 2,866.872982 | YES | null |
rqomiddjwql | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Sick!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | monY4RvqXJJeDJ6Y6i4m | public | contract | 1,716,897,175,659 | which-sexualromantic-acts-will-jame-4d7f87e78a4d | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Which sexual/romantic acts will James Bond be part of in the next James Bond movie? | null | null | null | null | null |
jjs6q8n55o | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "appsmxyjv0l",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Dortmund beat Juventus in the Champions League final in 1997. Big deal, in 1998, Real Madrid beat Juventus in the Champions League final. Different teams, different era. Doesn't mean anything. It's like saying the Broncos won the Super Bowl in 1998 so they will win it in 2024. You are completely delulu.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Universal FC ⚽ | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,716,897,528,628 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | UniversalFC | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | vb2encflgs8 | 0.276623 | 3,794.824504 | NO | null | |
sz6uop98wsk | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3o7pnmopvse",
"label": "HansKoch",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Just stop, you have no idea what you're talking about.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Universal FC ⚽ | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,716,897,669,150 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | UniversalFC | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | 5uefgxxb957 | 0.276623 | 5,196.071277 | NO | null | |
fy9j5oq9se | false | N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Okay so it seems I may have fucked up the setup of this question, to make sure it ends in a relatively fair way I will resolve it as other AND the candidate that eventually be picked. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Unless someone proposes a more fair way to deal with the situation. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Sam Bogerd | xWPtCbbpumA8WDm3Zo4O | public | contract | 1,716,898,123,224 | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-1900af200308 | SamBogerd | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7jLVh87UFbGs1SVyVEC8hHwUqLiyniT_8xSym6vVg=s96-c | Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election? | null | null | 2,103.424259 | YES | 8e53bbecabd2 |
vo6wourp5vl | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lc0415kxk9a",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " fair enough, I was arguably thinking about the issue through a too Western centric lens",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,716,898,562,754 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | g9bidp74llh | null | 81.308256 | NO | da14950ce49c |
d41uraak01i | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why are the probabilities so sensitive to even small bets on this market? Is that just indicative that there is a relatively low degree of (per-outcome) subsidy?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jess Riedel | 2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW | public | contract | 1,716,898,749,714 | when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683 | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | When will there be a 4th Starship launch? | null | null | 369.364419 | NO | fa22b811887c |
z0kpgejsfkr | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "S",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jess Riedel | 2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW | public | contract | 1,716,898,756,633 | when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683 | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | When will there be a 4th Starship launch? | null | null | 369.364419 | NO | fa22b811887c |
7guqn4nu55g | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is me hitting the “repost” button without knowing what it does…What does it do?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jess Riedel | 2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW | public | contract | 1,716,898,898,225 | when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683 | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | When will there be a 4th Starship launch? | z0kpgejsfkr | null | 369.364419 | NO | fa22b811887c |
rysuf69w44 | false | rYQvUSe7BEdrDKpCvBgfwZPHVzB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Глаза боятся! 🍾 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Владимир Путин (пародия) | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,716,898,931,727 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | AltPutin | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | null | 0.276623 | 6,835.732274 | YES | null | |
nk0qgjame8 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dashboard: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/coolfold-financial-advice-markets",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/coolfold-financial-advice-markets",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 1y0FHXHuFnJAuSndRGKJ | public | contract | 1,716,898,982,770 | coolfold-financial-advice-suggest-i | strutheo | 💰CoolFold Financial Advice: Suggest Investments for Me & Predict their ROI in 6 months, invest & win real money! | null | null | null | null | null | |
egfo8y2oez | false | kcT3FBB2ldQuiYCTYW3uQuN2oCk2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FBsQfvWax95.png?alt=media&token=3383c9b1-ab52-4a41-a8fd-79cb6dfe89f5",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mothmatic | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,716,899,115,651 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | Mothmatic | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | null | 0.622282 | 732.697507 | YES | null | |
cl0eitagxge | false | 9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Star Trek DS9 puts the Bell Riots on Aug 30 - Sep 6 2024. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quroe | seqOr3Z8N02eHHCeldO4 | public | contract | 1,716,899,245,197 | will-there-be-largescale-rioting-in-721f0882dfd8 | Quroe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026? | null | null | null | null | null |
77iwufaw2vy | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "By reacting to changes almost every day I gradually lost to fees. It feels like it is better to gamble once at the start than to update after every progression.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | 7578UT8qujG6AorznU8S | public | contract | 1,716,900,458,686 | who-will-be-the-first-one-to-finish | KongoLandwalker | Who will be the first one to finish Deep Dip 2? | null | null | 525.679059 | YES | 81eee2af008e | |
vrs4rekj9c | false | 1S3tsifD6kTYTIGEF2zEsIeEE7v2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If they do triple lock plus/quadruple lock what will maintain the triple lock resolve? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mae Polé | 6OwYX6Ep9mY31psjmtO4 | public | contract | 1,716,900,467,927 | which-of-the-following-promises-wil-9790df604ba8 | MaePole | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0abgk9-5BMcT8OLNL2P15srXmgzN8EsnSTAylaiA=s96-c | Which of the following promises will be in the conservative party Manifesto? | null | null | 71.170237 | YES | 1968546cb635 |
v7znopa71z | false | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7guqn4nu55g",
"label": "JessRiedel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " It's like a Twitter retweet, it shows the market in the feed of people who follow you.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Manifold Politics | 2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW | public | contract | 1,716,900,538,974 | when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683 | ManifoldPolitics | When will there be a 4th Starship launch? | z0kpgejsfkr | null | null | null | null | |
93wy318phng | false | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d41uraak01i",
"label": "JessRiedel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yup! I just added a bit more subsidy though.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Manifold Politics | 2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW | public | contract | 1,716,900,555,353 | when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683 | ManifoldPolitics | When will there be a 4th Starship launch? | d41uraak01i | null | null | null | null | |
bzj2scbl3 | false | LJcW2PB0dGTeAVWKUeio4taveKo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Please do notice that this is an inverted question, meaning if I do more than 4h of work on the project this market resolves NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Anton Bogun | OQ6C2psCJT0QXWk9GTeg | public | contract | 1,716,900,595,867 | will-i-do-4h-or-less-of-work-on-gra | AntonBogun | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIkgJ3gNoBVdiNHmHyZFKPprQaeQNvCqsiX9H0ZjpajZo=s96-c | Will I do 4h or less of work on GraphSheets this week? | null | null | null | null | null |
u2plm0vifv7 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/nypost/status/1795217369658282234",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/nypost/status/1795217369658282234",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Not quite the market resolution but another one haha ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": "t1795217369658282234",
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "tiptapTweet"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | dZNIIQYH93YSBaR4fURI | public | contract | 1,716,900,773,673 | will-there-be-a-deep-sea-expedition | strutheo | Will there be a deep sea expedition sent to recover the wreckage of the Oceangate Titan sub before EOY 2035? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ybdd3rzy07e | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " June is the last month of matches I'm adding, it's way too costly with now little to no returns. Will open it up to others if you want to add more matches, otherwise I'm done here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Universal FC ⚽ | 028a6RvwdTE8vDtjlJGW | public | contract | 1,716,901,954,475 | major-league-soccer-mls-2024-regula | UniversalFC | Major League Soccer (MLS) ⚽ 2024 Regular Season Matches | null | null | 13,998.762744 | NO | b6c63e760349 | |
wruhmd4rt4k | false | jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "egfo8y2oez",
"label": "Mothmatic",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " do we believe thats gpt 5 or something beyond?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Roberto Gomez | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,716,902,319,482 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | RobertoGomez | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | egfo8y2oez | 0.622282 | 228.616507 | YES | null |
j6rpom6wu1k | false | OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.macrumors.com/2024/05/28/oled-macbook-pro-could-launch-as-soon-as-2026/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "OLED MacBook Pro Could Launch as Soon as 2026",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Probajoelistic | 9jLQP4UmlhSub8IZ4sU2 | public | contract | 1,716,902,379,649 | will-a-macbook-pro-be-released-with | probajoelistic | Will a Macbook Pro be released with an OLED screen by the end of 2025? | null | 0.75173 | 179.874129 | NO | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.