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Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
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Ziddletwix
5jCBSTKklsOQqId0Vlxb
public
contract
1,716,918,118,996
will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-be
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire be the lowest grossing of the franchise? 👻🥼🔫
null
0.847223
3,837.084247
YES
null
dcqaeyktcoj
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
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uair01
En73gBPhyWGSikueE5o0
public
contract
1,716,918,195,846
will-bitcoin-be-above-6969696-at-th-c1c45e056b01
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will bitcoin be above $69696.96 at the end of May?
null
0.281502
155.413133
NO
null
4nag0dq4phv
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
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uair01
lOdmOUvSdmwmbpo82Sxb
public
contract
1,716,918,276,289
will-bitcoin-increase-in-may-2024
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin increase in May 2024?
null
0.836413
259.072587
YES
null
qgg2siw2di
false
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is Shogun eligible?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SneakySly
aAhcDBKPnfIe3eSjBZz9
public
contract
1,716,918,321,878
outstanding-limited-series-76th-emm
SneakySly
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
Outstanding Limited Series (76th Emmy awards - September 15th)
null
null
null
null
null
0j43sqjwxbkf
false
D3MeAINv5uMz6cDoiGSOcU1U1TG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jfz56mvbag9", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Prey animals are left-coded, predator animals are right-coded.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chaos
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,716,918,370,348
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
chaos
https://firebasestorage.…bea-80ab4aa4b03e
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
3a0eiqufwbg
null
2,989.24158
NO
7d119d917665
suc7u27f8s
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data?start=2024-01-01&end=2024-05-28", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD Historical Data | CoinGecko", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69153.273438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 68735.843750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 68577.328125", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 68769.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68841.523438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69617.023438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 69435.851562", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 69377.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 69259.210938", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 69492.148438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
YujYoefMqD7hSLboYyVO
public
contract
1,716,918,458,640
will-bitcoin-be-above-66666-at-the
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin be above $66666 at the end of May 2024?
null
0.709019
312.833335
YES
null
3cf0sq07h04
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data?start=2024-01-01&end=2024-05-28", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD Historical Data | CoinGecko", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69153.273438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 68735.843750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 68577.328125", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 68769.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68841.523438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69617.023438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 69435.851562", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 69377.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 69259.210938", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 69492.148438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
WHqtjM0MgQkrrFVhlFPd
public
contract
1,716,918,493,335
will-the-price-of-bitcoin-hit-72500-ed0e21a1a484
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $72,500 in May 2024?
null
0.187057
546.698863
NO
null
5n14y50su
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data?start=2024-01-01&end=2024-05-28", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD Historical Data | CoinGecko", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69153.273438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 68735.843750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 68577.328125", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 68769.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68841.523438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69617.023438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 69435.851562", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 69377.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 69259.210938", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 69492.148438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
3wZnwKQnY115SOZPHfAe
public
contract
1,716,918,515,065
will-bitcoin-hit-75k-in-may-2024
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin hit $75K in May 2024?
null
0.096323
340.942784
NO
null
f7m5acfeu3c
false
OrDT0OCiNsernqv9ZDQNCDKvjug1
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Paul Habermas
5WzOj5GvDZIA8ZKw7fDk
public
contract
1,716,918,518,863
will-the-2024-tiktok-ban-hr-7521-be
PaulHabermas
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJWwpVU6toxnXKeQK-4QinFCNemuwnKMIDHNrsmk_7o=s96-c
Will the 2024 TikTok Ban (HR 7521) be halted by a judge before the ban goes into effect
null
null
null
null
null
vobrm3oomrd
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data?start=2024-01-01&end=2024-05-28", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD Historical Data | CoinGecko", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69153.273438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 68735.843750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 68577.328125", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 68769.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68841.523438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69617.023438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 69435.851562", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 69377.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 69259.210938", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 69492.148438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
FuPjrH3HFV6XlQl4BKXD
public
contract
1,716,918,538,803
will-bitcoin-hit-80k-in-may-2024
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin hit $80K in May 2024?
null
0.031811
322.822123
NO
null
flx2h8tbepl
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9smrlz6rzru", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " gave it +2days - is that enough?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
yuNXsWVFBW77Jl6orbL2
public
contract
1,716,918,545,240
will-billie-eilishs-upcoming-album
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Will Billie Eilish’s upcoming album, Hit Me Hard and Soft, debut at #1 on Billboard 200?
9smrlz6rzru
null
null
null
null
dmu8yk0ufng
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data?start=2024-01-01&end=2024-05-28", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD Historical Data | CoinGecko", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69153.273438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 68735.843750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 68577.328125", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 68769.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68841.523438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 69617.023438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 69435.851562", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 69377.429688", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 69259.210938", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 69492.148438", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
1uZCJ5jiRw4iBbGHycRm
public
contract
1,716,918,559,202
will-bitcoin-hit-85k-in-may-2024
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin hit $85K in May 2024?
null
0.028138
428.71747
NO
null
o6alb3u771l
false
cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8grha8khhh6", "label": "jskf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (issue is known and will be fixed, no confirmation yet that they will backfill)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jskf
4kW57vyqqXm1cEEodZSc
public
contract
1,716,918,561,314
who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-27f036c305e3
jskf
https://firebasestorage.…6ed-2873f36771db
Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election?
r8ju8m8gfuh
null
2,828.899177
YES
b5967a8f3430
thogsng89mb
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jnn4nompk7", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " until when?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
5jCBSTKklsOQqId0Vlxb
public
contract
1,716,918,562,464
will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-be
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Will Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire be the lowest grossing of the franchise? 👻🥼🔫
jnn4nompk7
null
null
null
null
nbvkaptsgr
false
2BjZn7l2acSHgyHaFdXsStawcM12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k72ub8ysw5", "label": "ScipioFabius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The monthly average of daily active users is not the same as monthly active users.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Isaac Carruthers
gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta
public
contract
1,716,918,757,324
will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac
IsaacCarruthers
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcXXLFBQ4W22BzdB2pjzWmPe8QTc5dbbJiQblZf_gXrgLw=s96-c
Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?
25unwbe9x3z
0.548823
1,544.574393
NO
null
xtzsc4yn0nh
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "She has no particular reason to endorse a candidate this time around at all. But the campaigns — well the Biden one anyway— have plenty of incentive to ride her coattails stoking speculation about her endorsement.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Safe to assume Swifties not a Trump-friendly demographic. If she wants to see him out of power she could just encourage everyone to vote and avoid the wrath of MAGAs. The ones who are not already mad at her that is.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
6hqoyXmtFfJNELD8qkJo
public
contract
1,716,918,767,910
when-will-taylor-swift-endorse-a-ca
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
When will Taylor Swift endorse a candidate for the 2024 Presidential election?
null
null
137.183136
YES
10da40388dab
sy77l6hj43f
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "flx2h8tbepl", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yeah should be ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
yuNXsWVFBW77Jl6orbL2
public
contract
1,716,919,202,681
will-billie-eilishs-upcoming-album
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Billie Eilish’s upcoming album, Hit Me Hard and Soft, debut at #1 on Billboard 200?
9smrlz6rzru
0.01
1,673.362361
NO
null
9qrt43e8nad
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "thogsng89mb", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " June 17 seems fine! closing is tricky because Ghostbusters may not entirely \"leave theaters\" for months and months. it's already out on VOD, and it's not going to keep earning relevant amounts at the box office. (box office trackers are already calling this the end of its run—", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/i/bookmarks?post_id=1795510256430162103", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "example", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "—and this is certainly going to resolve YES). because technically it's still earning a little bit at the box office, and international reporting can be a bit delayed (in rare cases), I think giving it until June 17 to see if it's still close is fair (and then resolve YES if the gross has essentially stopped, rather than tying up people's mana for many months), & best fits the spirit of the question (as matty usually resolved questions when it was mathematically certain).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "tl;dr yeah I think June 17 is fair. if the box office doesn't change much between now and then, imo it should resolve YES as it's mathematically certain (and that best fits how matty usually ran these questions imo)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
5jCBSTKklsOQqId0Vlxb
public
contract
1,716,919,431,793
will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-be
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire be the lowest grossing of the franchise? 👻🥼🔫
jnn4nompk7
0.847223
4,707.90582
YES
null
cwae5fb3ums
false
kdNf8sfMb8NVHISL6202ua3EB9O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "isn't that already a thing i believe its called baritone ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
h gg
zQfbBhmRX11VDdoF4sQl
public
contract
1,716,919,813,793
before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai-a8ceb93e18fb
hgg
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIBzZ46vypoHkCyjsfp2wKkEsCeEVRUq-218ze_YSSR=s96-c
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
null
null
null
null
null
2naku38gcmv
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qgg2siw2di", "label": "SneakySly", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think that's going to considered for best drama, they want to do more seasons of it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
aAhcDBKPnfIe3eSjBZz9
public
contract
1,716,919,899,987
outstanding-limited-series-76th-emm
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Outstanding Limited Series (76th Emmy awards - September 15th)
qgg2siw2di
null
586.831513
NO
194c44ce732a
567srnamlli
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kqfisyihwph", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " fuck this lol can we na ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
OrQrgEkzgXjU1NDsgQyb
public
contract
1,716,919,968,021
will-the-earning-limit-for-partners
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the earning limit for partners of $3000 per quarter be removed after the first Partnership period?
kqfisyihwph
null
null
null
null
emd9dhq5ebf
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "btxq7pu92ma", "label": "Gideon37", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Too bad you can't bet it down to 1% and redeem the loans. And I mean that sincerely; if you think it's much lower, too bad there aren't incentives for you to lock more mana up.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaz Downright
TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO
public
contract
1,716,919,976,649
will-germany-recognize-the-state-of-b158182bb5a4
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain?
btxq7pu92ma
null
null
null
null
2gb8h4fxp8c
false
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cwae5fb3ums", "label": "hgg", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Baritone covers some of this (eg. walk to a destination, mine diamond ore), but it can't go nearly as far as things like \"build a creeper farm\" or \"defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons\". It's definitely a first step, and maybe a tool that would be used, but it's not nearly there. Crucially, everything that it can do is programmed in, so you can't make up arbitrary tasks for it, while that's a requirement for this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gabrielle
zQfbBhmRX11VDdoF4sQl
public
contract
1,716,920,143,791
before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai-a8ceb93e18fb
Gabrielle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
cwae5fb3ums
null
null
null
null
852h18vo8ai
false
xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mf44yijd1l", "label": "IsaacCarruthers", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Fair point.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Scipio Fabius
gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta
public
contract
1,716,920,149,101
will-manifold-markets-still-have-ac
ScipioFabius
https://firebasestorage.…63c-5ef26e7166e2
Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?
25unwbe9x3z
0.569771
162.127108
YES
null
lukw86dpb2q
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " can we confirm this policy for resolution?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp
public
contract
1,716,920,220,647
what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,076.83559
YES
7ed3cf41a79e
fpnlqwzol1
false
FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0005tqqzh8yvp", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " What a plot twist.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Weezing
Rg3kgZu1ZO7knICU9MsP
public
contract
1,716,920,315,165
will-thebayesian-reach-the-top-20-a
Weezing
https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276
Will I (@TheBayesian) Reach the Top 20 All-Time Profit Leaderboard before July 2024?
0005tqqzh8yvp
null
null
null
null
v76dog6pqv
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "any word on poll ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1", "label": "NoitUK", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp
public
contract
1,716,920,325,606
what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,076.83559
YES
7ed3cf41a79e
4gdt2zkh5tv
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salame got 7.5 years ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/?id=ryan-salame-sentenced", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/?id=ryan-salame-sentenced", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Modrák
6EKcapcDXgaC5EzSItXE
public
contract
1,716,920,381,538
will-caroline-ellison-be-sentenced
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to any prison time?
null
0.819533
78.659154
YES
null
oxnzcj4247k
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "any word ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
zBsRZkjWx2ejUb4MId6X
public
contract
1,716,920,400,060
what-will-be-true-about-spice-the-n
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🧂What will be true about Spice, the new Manifold currency? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,417.370979
YES
46adc99f9c3b
lkyok9afcbb
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
mnDUjkaZDM50jCSM7zkk
public
contract
1,716,920,410,426
who-is-manifolds-kwisatz-haderach-o
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who is Manifold's Kwisatz Haderach out of these options?
null
null
null
null
null
g510a6tato
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
pdb5PKHHhiFEyVjpVEdv
public
contract
1,716,920,414,366
who-is-manifolds-lisan-al-gaib-out
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who is Manifold's Lisan al Gaib out of these options?
null
null
null
null
null
h6x5yh90s4
false
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ask us about Manifold!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SG
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,716,920,452,114
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
SG
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
null
null
9.635769
YES
ab2caa20ef20
8i7eiwjayvm
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "hey ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "label": "Soli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " - any news on this one?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
GCo4epJD8wJKuWaQvxfo
public
contract
1,716,920,896,351
will-amazon-layoff-more-than-1000-e
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will Amazon layoff more than 1000+ employees before February 2024?
null
0.776406
74.535895
YES
null
jaklt0zrtd
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "earth defense force 6 release date - july 25 announced ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
85k0vIBvvP6fpA7ZFmsa
public
contract
1,716,921,077,753
of-these-40-events-which-will-be-th
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2024? (12 DONE)
null
null
1,767.314207
YES
286b73251f3b
tpcdap7nt9
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump, manifest <2 weeks away", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
H2C0pUFoXUunAu8b7i2f
public
contract
1,716,921,168,073
coolfold-2024-which-of-these-2024-e
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (33 DONE)
null
null
31.111111
YES
b045d5a5bd51
s2ipx5ni6gp
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 67565.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 67212.992188", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 67293.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 67920.718750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68042.632812", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
92yt6DE1mHBKDj0JUg4u
public
contract
1,716,921,202,076
will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-may-2024
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin dip to $50K in May 2024?
null
0.025443
214.775073
NO
null
rgch3vawk9
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v76dog6pqv", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Will get it up tomorrow or the day after, I’ve spent all my mana today. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Noit
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp
public
contract
1,716,921,236,448
what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
v76dog6pqv
null
null
null
null
owr7nkk9ngl
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 67565.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 67212.992188", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 67293.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 67920.718750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68042.632812", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
9U6uLqyZFG9ZRNT2Jfho
public
contract
1,716,921,244,269
will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-may-2024
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in May 2024?
null
0.06009
509.902848
NO
null
bsdy3k2du8s
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 67565.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 67212.992188", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 67293.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 67920.718750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68042.632812", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
8Pa2cuxirFzmN1A8mWQZ
public
contract
1,716,921,265,754
will-bitcoin-dip-to-48k-in-may-2024
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will Bitcoin dip to $48K in May 2024?
null
0.032951
263.784017
NO
null
afk5e64dc6f
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rgch3vawk9", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " take your time no rush i understand </3", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp
public
contract
1,716,921,266,510
what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
v76dog6pqv
null
1,076.83559
YES
7ed3cf41a79e
s5ib8pzxyyp
false
cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 2024-05-29 67565.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1 2024-05-30 67212.992188", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 2024-05-31 67293.687500", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 2024-06-01 67920.718750", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4 2024-06-02 68042.632812", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
uair01
JObijq71JPpjvZsB6Whw
public
contract
1,716,921,289,636
will-bitcoin-go-below-55000-in-may
uair01
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYLtCUTXQWAx5xx-hnQest6ndeRhzArY4NWM4cabw=s96-c
Will bitcoin go below $55000 in May 2024
null
0.044104
284.780456
NO
null
zl0tnw96ghg
false
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9kqvkm62657", "label": "MichaelBlume", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Alright, well, 75 years to go…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ibozz91
2UNpGEanwbFybQWDDbFb
public
contract
1,716,921,416,119
botw-stands-for-breath-of-the-wild
Ibozz91
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099?
g4gwpyax3s
0.66298
45.992585
YES
null
sgc2kq833pb
false
kdNf8sfMb8NVHISL6202ua3EB9O2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2gb8h4fxp8c", "label": "Gabrielle", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thanks for the clarification ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
h gg
zQfbBhmRX11VDdoF4sQl
public
contract
1,716,921,548,919
before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai-a8ceb93e18fb
hgg
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIBzZ46vypoHkCyjsfp2wKkEsCeEVRUq-218ze_YSSR=s96-c
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
cwae5fb3ums
null
null
null
null
nxshu8rmxzt
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "no interest, no traders, so N/Aing this", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
3ES6exJ8Eon8fPWuwlLm
public
contract
1,716,921,735,786
how-many-thousand-followers-will-ja-0b70293876ca
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
How many thousand followers will Jasontheween have on twitch, at the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
nlddxdg01v
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 interest, 0 traders, so N/Aing this", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
A2z3MNvDRSvxjfsgpH6k
public
contract
1,716,921,763,736
how-many-thousand-subscribers-will
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
How many thousand subscribers will Jasontheween have on youtube, at the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
qxzsp7vrf7
false
fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Tons of confidence in this market, but nobody is out here hitting the griddy yet. Curious.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zac Parker
QVXKOtBHlEaK0HInor5C
public
contract
1,716,922,177,057
will-a-masters-ranked-user-post-a-v
ZacParker
https://firebasestorage.…4d0-dbaec72eff5e
Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?
null
null
null
null
null
pypaa0pj8m
false
HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkyaW4MeSvg.jpg?alt=media&token=47e7a7cf-4c93-4a2e-948b-96cce88e85c7", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "New Mexico: ANMGO2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
TheSchwa
lzwiyoeyZyK9BabJbjju
public
contract
1,716,922,308,068
manifold-competition-state-vanity-l
TheSchwa
https://firebasestorage.…bac-cc68523535a6
[Manifold Competition] State Vanity License Plate Civil War
null
null
67.275977
YES
77925a6265c6
vx5l8wicfxd
false
jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k905ulhuqdj", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " reminded me of ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/gdb/status/1767049366999810549?t=YibPJyQGrVPV0VmLeMyw0A&s=19", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/gdb/status/1767049366999810549?t=YibPJyQGrVPV0VmLeMyw0A&s=19", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Roberto Gomez
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,716,922,393,459
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
RobertoGomez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
egfo8y2oez
0.5
228.616507
YES
null
y5d5o8lz7yd
false
ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "label": "ManifoldPolitics", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_zKZPJyoZl.webp?alt=media&token=8eb28b87-ce7f-4026-8366-7c78a2f49b13", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 hours ago the WSJ published an article titled \"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-tanks-close-in-on-central-rafah-as-global-uproar-grows-89e2e87a?mod=hp_lead_pos2", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Israeli Tanks Close In on Central Rafah as Global Uproar Grows", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The article includes the following excerpts:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Israeli tanks advanced further into Rafah on Tuesday, according to witnesses, as the Israeli military said it was expanding operations in the southern Gaza city amid growing international condemnation.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The tanks passed near the Al-Awda mosque, a central Rafah landmark, Palestinians in the city told The Wall Street Journal. The Israeli military didn’t comment on the specifics of its push into Rafah, but Israel’s Army Radio said the military had added a brigade to the five already operating in the city and troops were engaging in close-quarters combat with Hamas.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Israel for months has said it wants to destroy the last of Hamas’s military structure in Rafah and disrupt the U.S.-designated terrorist group’s smuggling network from Egypt into Gaza. But the U.S. has repeatedly warned Israel that it needs to do more to protect civilians.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The article doesn't use \"invasion,\" nor \"assault,\" nor \"offensive.\" Though, according to the clarified resolution critieria (but also the original resolution criteria), using \"invasion\" is not required:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Regardless of use of the word \"invasion\", the NYT or the WSJ unambiguously report in more than one article that the conflict has now escalated into the long-anticipated \"full-scale\" military action. This reporting must make it clear that new events are a major escalation from what has previously been often called as a \"limited operation\".", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Notably, the criteria requires \"more than one\" article. Can we consider this article a qualifying article according to the resolution criteria, meaning that if the expanded military action is reported in one addition article, it would be sufficient to resolve YES?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
mint
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
public
contract
1,716,922,710,736
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
mint
https://firebasestorage.…6c1-5baf736896c2
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st?
null
null
3,941.375906
YES
74177def07ab
vg1b8hszjlc
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Due to the fact NA button was removed, corresponding markets will resolve to 50%.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
RLpMQEOtd6TKBMpsFyqW
public
contract
1,716,922,787,864
each-answer-resolves-to-its-side-of
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Each answer resolves to its side of most holders
null
null
59.624544
YES
2d31cb7b43a5
yby81omn28
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQxEeHmnj-Q.png?alt=media&token=38cce068-2b20-497f-8e78-bafbd7896a16", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
NHXDvre4BicZGYcmPLid
public
contract
1,716,922,810,179
which-of-these-games-franchises-hav
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which of these game franchises will have an official Lego set released before Jan 1st 2028?
null
null
null
null
null
9v24gk4wqr
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4bBg9fNV-i.png?alt=media&token=dab4f4d7-3a52-4c74-bf2b-c5ae74e53a4a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://x.com/DiscussingFilm/status/1795447042086470062", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://x.com/DiscussingFilm/status/1795447042086470062", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
hcG6YonNOFTpdiTqXgZi
public
contract
1,716,922,847,082
will-a-legend-of-zelda-themed-lego
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will a Legend of Zelda themed LEGO set be released before the end of 2024?
null
0.737518
1,073.236773
YES
null
vyx5dlcyj6i
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "21/24", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-eNcNRYojh.png?alt=media&token=021fb6b8-c5d2-41ea-af56-2a457c881588", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Pat posting photo evidence when he's ready to resolve this market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,716,922,873,576
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
753.375109
NO
e46ef40a0bed
0f68rjft89n
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y5d5o8lz7yd", "label": "mint", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I read this and figured it didn't matter in the scope of the discussion so far, would be hilarious if I was wrong.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
public
contract
1,716,922,924,688
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st?
y5d5o8lz7yd
null
10,414.77382
YES
246add140b36
l9gdwjw9sb8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "BUMP! it has begun", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
g1Bp7dW2hUjEeJnyaN1T
public
contract
1,716,923,427,160
which-players-will-make-the-final-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which players will make the final table at the 2024 World Series of Poker Main Event?
null
null
107.468222
NO
6d85154f77d0
n17rntjxbgc
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "BUMP! it has begun", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
L3EWzmjuuhwdNKrdWQPJ
public
contract
1,716,923,433,200
who-will-win-the-2024-world-series
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who will win the 2024 WSOP World Series of Poker Texas Holdem Main Event?
null
null
152.362063
NO
65ec637fefaa
haaiemm06f9
false
GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bhutan ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.un.org/ldcportal/content/bhutan-graduation-status", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "was removed", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " from the LDC list in Dec 2023 as expected. No other country was added to the list ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/least-developed-country-category/creation-of-the-ldc-category-and-timeline-of-changes-to-ldc-membership-and-criteria.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "prior", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
cshunter
mo94JU6HFOUU2Ic4Masv
public
contract
1,716,923,576,650
will-the-un-list-of-least-developed
cash
https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e
Will the UN list of Least Developed Countries increase or decrease first? (Increase = YES, decrease = NO).
null
0.195509
5,343.004064
NO
null
iznl0fwll5
false
iQKE9LHS0GN0TCOmXWHGzwBM3Tj1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Pacers vs Celtics can now be resolved", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Hayden
0V6u8KeetBmJKk6JSsNr
public
contract
1,716,923,796,773
-major-sporting-events
Hayden
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKQ-MWguzXeTZ_PXFF8kxsEl1_wogfZIQOCMO-1gQ0n5XpDuF8=s96-c
🏟️ Major Sporting Events
null
null
709.872472
NO
8c84afa8c672
epjpanh31ph
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "label": "VictorLevoso", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think this was meant to be a dependent multichoice market (answers sum to 1)? You can’t change that on this market directly but you can duplicate it, change that, and N/A this one if you want to", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,923,906,245
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
null
null
null
null
null
4j6muorwitv
false
51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "epjpanh31ph", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah you are right, I realized just after clicking the create market button.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Don't I lose the mana that way thou? I'm not sure I have enough rn to make the market again.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I mean technically I can resolve all as no except the correct one its just slightly more annoying to use.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Victor Levoso
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,924,163,360
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
VictorLevoso
https://firebasestorage.…1b8-eaf45666b429
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
epjpanh31ph
null
null
null
null
dqmbizk8f2j
false
51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4j6muorwitv", "label": "VictorLevoso", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I would have made it a numeric market maybe but that's much more expensive.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Victor Levoso
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,924,259,458
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
VictorLevoso
https://firebasestorage.…1b8-eaf45666b429
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
epjpanh31ph
null
null
null
null
i0j68wiy7td
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They would be considered, doesn't mean they would actually be.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP
public
contract
1,716,924,452,371
which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
null
null
null
null
null
lz0rk9zdzsb
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4j6muorwitv", "label": "VictorLevoso", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " n/A gives you back the mana. Idk if regular users still can N/A though. I can do it. Yeah independent MC still works to be clear, just doesn’t have the automatic market maker arb across options", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,924,600,316
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
epjpanh31ph
null
18.976112
NO
01f25b7f642a
56o9dhiq95q
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Busy with some stuff right now but will read in detail later, thanks for linking 👍", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
public
contract
1,716,924,905,869
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal Announced, Rafah Ground Invasion (Per NYT/WSJ), or June 1st?
y5d5o8lz7yd
null
0
NO
74177def07ab
fzmzbp9f6dn
false
NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The market creator substituted his own opinion on whether this is \"unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem\". The openai team lead disagrees.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Teddy Weverka
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
public
contract
1,716,925,064,074
will-superalignment-succeed
TeddyWeverka
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
qahuctubquf
0
0
NO
null
2uhrgli6lsl
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vyx5dlcyj6i", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " very hopeful of you", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,716,925,596,241
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
282.45773
YES
a06afbcc5807
ainufzfk2ap
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2uhrgli6lsl", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " evidence? what evidence? 😂 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,716,925,621,114
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
282.45773
YES
a06afbcc5807
frn12d2yd98
false
51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lz0rk9zdzsb", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Seems N/A doesn't work anymore.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So I guess its going to have to be people's job to keep the probabilities of the market consistent.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Victor Levoso
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,926,275,557
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
VictorLevoso
https://firebasestorage.…1b8-eaf45666b429
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
epjpanh31ph
null
null
null
null
ye19qnt12hc
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "just to confirm, each count is for each document that was falsified? I haven't kept up on this trial at all lol. I know the basics.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
RLIrcGWRup1iIc74ritL
public
contract
1,716,926,291,683
will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-at-le-f35eac5b4469
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Trump be found guilty of at least 10 of the 34 felony counts against him in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial?
null
null
null
null
null
ms7iqpifuog
false
8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i199kia06kp", "label": "ManifoldAI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The bug is fixed! Submissions are open again", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Manifold AI
DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt
public
contract
1,716,926,314,896
which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c
ManifoldAI
https://firebasestorage.…924-001fe00f6330
Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours]
i199kia06kp
null
2,021.771935
YES
9c35f75f9a7d
k52ihwrkkba
false
DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Now 145 after Ireland, Norway, and Spain officially recognized Palestine, while the President of Mexico clarified that Mexico had not yet officially done so: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Slovenia will recognize the State of Palestine by 13 June 2024, bringing the total to 146.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Antoine Dusséaux
2yFjVaOYgeEwjWvmVbCK
public
contract
1,716,926,329,433
will-as-many-or-more-countries-reco
adssx
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c
Will as many or more countries recognize Palestine than Israel by 2027?
null
0.195471
94.465832
NO
null
k1404eauz8i
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "frn12d2yd98", "label": "VictorLevoso", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " mods can N/A, regular users can't, bc otherwise there are schemes that let you print money using N/A. that works.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,926,492,836
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
epjpanh31ph
null
18.976112
NO
01f25b7f642a
m0zw8qw3bgs
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think that gpt4-o is broadly the same architecture as gpt-5. They built enough confidence with the smaller scale model before going for the big training run", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
l7StdSwaNTwpNIvWJa5E
public
contract
1,716,926,844,702
will-we-find-out-by-2026-that-opena
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will we find out by 2026 that OpenAI abandoned an attempt to train GPT-5?
null
0.319499
42.861814
NO
null
zaac81qjnk
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Right now, all the options add up to 105%, meaning YES shares are generally over-priced and NO shares are generally under-priced. This could be a good chance for someone looking for an arbitrage opportunity.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
kjcjIiwfbTBIBI5Zl8dQ
public
contract
1,716,927,172,331
how-much-will-ozempic-cost-in-2027
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
How much will Ozempic cost in 2027 in the USA?
null
null
109.286842
NO
6708137a5ad2
a4atms13rm8
false
iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Unless something crazy happens, this seems to be basically just NVDA vs Bitcoin. NVDA currently at 20x its 2020 price, Bitcoin at 10x. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dominic de Bettencourt
7YJmDGTs91tSjXTm3oVb
public
contract
1,716,927,449,852
will-a-big-tech-stock-meta-apple-am
dominic
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_rYabDlibjswkfie6jTwLYXt1nSx42B8oytNLxA=s96-c
Will a Big Tech Stock (Meta, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft) have a higher return than Bitcoin over the 2020s? 🤑💰🔑
null
0.564922
166.136593
YES
null
h8bxi90e23
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bcxci1bn68j", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " inactive creator, pinged, simple resolution, resolves YES (another similar market to this already resolved) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
vFrFOUiwrqGFCbOawhPQ
public
contract
1,716,927,488,756
who-will-be-the-top-scorer-of-the-s
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be Top Scorer of the Saudi Pro League at the end of season 2023/24?
bcxci1bn68j
null
3,772.897726
YES
bc6292ee93ff
sejqtbyc5c9
false
51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's already at 11 and imo is unlikely it goes down much. So someone should definitely buy [0,10] down.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Victor Levoso
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,927,545,635
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
VictorLevoso
https://firebasestorage.…1b8-eaf45666b429
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
null
null
null
null
null
h9ubhzzgfng
false
0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think lots of people aren't adding questions cause 250M feels high (as a fraction of balance)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Well, at least that's why I'm not adding a question", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
colorednoise
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,716,927,796,468
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
colorednoise
https://firebasestorage.…7c5-3d0b33690749
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
3lasacxofwt
false
LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Record number of S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” on Q1 earnings calls", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://sherwood.news/business/number-of-s-and-p-500-companies-mentioning-ai-hits-record/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://sherwood.news/business/number-of-s-and-p-500-companies-mentioning-ai-hits-record/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
becauseyoudo
uWTeJomYesQMgdN1Bppv
public
contract
1,716,927,940,513
will-there-be-an-ai-bubble-before-2
becauseyoudo
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
qfupejpjp1q
false
8PfLXqhRt4YSaTvsugaNMxi5aT02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "usopp's getting conquerers, mark my words", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
.CLI
mQ03MN3pObW2K2qNAswg
public
contract
1,716,928,023,550
will-any-other-straw-hat-unlock-con
CLI
https://firebasestorage.…f38-10f1776cd1a2
Will any other straw hat ever get conquerers haki?
null
0.661574
73.029468
YES
null
ea50781zqb
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
uhGUkBFkzJb4xxZKgooa
public
contract
1,716,928,169,533
who-will-be-a-new-guest-on-the-joe
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🎙️Who will be a new guest on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2027? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
0s3jzbdsbwy
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Apparently she has had the whip restored ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69063295?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=665628ce5073887799872080%26Diane%20Abbott%20has%20Labour%20whip%20restored%2C%20BBC%20understands%262024-05-28T18%3A56%3A15.646Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a68068c1-180b-4ce1-a475-94b017b0ef8d&pinned_post_asset_id=665628ce5073887799872080&pinned_post_type=share", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69063295?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=665628ce5073887799872080%26Diane%20Abbott%20has%20Labour%20whip%20restored%2C%20BBC%20understands%262024-05-28T18%3A56%3A15.646Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a68068c1-180b-4ce1-a475-94b017b0ef8d&pinned_post_asset_id=665628ce5073887799872080&pinned_post_type=share", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fion
yeRdT27omnNdjBZKbU9O
public
contract
1,716,928,246,200
uk-general-election-2024-will-diane
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
UK General Election 2024 - Will Diane Abbot stand as a candidate?
null
null
1.563152
NO
62549f652f9f
e1obvo3t3xa
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0s3jzbdsbwy", "label": "Fion", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ugh, wtf is that link? :( ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fion
yeRdT27omnNdjBZKbU9O
public
contract
1,716,928,263,460
uk-general-election-2024-will-diane
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
UK General Election 2024 - Will Diane Abbot stand as a candidate?
0s3jzbdsbwy
null
1.563152
NO
62549f652f9f
fkj5ux76ii
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "the market banner proves that AI has a sense of humor", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaz Downright
LXRFURFEYsw5xA9tjg57
public
contract
1,716,928,280,592
will-donald-trump-choose-a-vp-runni
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Donald Trump choose a VP running mate before Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift?
null
null
null
null
null
5dy0tw0nqst
false
51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sejqtbyc5c9", "label": "VictorLevoso", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It would probably be fine for me to buy it myself since this market doesn't require my subjective opinion to resolve but I think I'll let other people do it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Victor Levoso
fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH
public
contract
1,716,928,317,774
how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi
VictorLevoso
https://firebasestorage.…1b8-eaf45666b429
How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
sejqtbyc5c9
null
null
null
null
zx3558589f
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The USA has spent 3% of its national budget on the Apollo program to put 12 people on the moon. A Mars colony would be massively more expensive - the most expensive project in human history. Why put 100 people on Mars in the next 25 years when 10 people only cost 10% of that?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jan
LCCaQxnlEYepJqt9cLoz
public
contract
1,716,928,487,525
will-there-be-at-least-100-people-o
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050?
null
0.445377
168.656849
NO
null
jgg84e4ih
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Placed a YES limit order for the next ~12 hours at 1%:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXP61F-EdqE.png?alt=media&token=106ad104-872c-4c96-b61a-98f0419f8d46", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ECMWF 12Z cyclone product predicts some type of disturbance (but this is not a tropical storm though) -- is this what YES holders are holding on to? FSU experimental ( ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/summary168al.php", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/summary168al.php", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ) and NOAA's outlook ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ) has nothing.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My own analysis has GFS 12Z (but not ECM 12Z) showing a possible TD developing there (but not becoming a short-lived tropical storm until after June starts -- for the last couple days I only have one NAV and one GFS run showing some type of disturbance developing, so I estimate it is still very low probability (<1% of this resolving YES, but the outside range is something like 0-8%.)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
lKZxVmhYnGhqee49absF
public
contract
1,716,928,698,770
will-a-tropical-or-subtropical-stor-8bb87f7ad23e
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will a tropical or subtropical storm form in the Atlantic basin before the start of the official hurricane season?
null
0.079927
5,513.27401
NO
null
rbn9mas44u9
false
qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lukw86dpb2q", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Agh
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp
public
contract
1,716,928,709,847
what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
Agh
https://firebasestorage.…96a-92c3aadf6a66
🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
lukw86dpb2q
null
47.060613
YES
785080390fe3
kxc107pzee
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lukw86dpb2q", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
iumIYvPsg6yuDiNz8arp
public
contract
1,716,928,719,458
what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
lukw86dpb2q
null
265.470172
YES
b9b5d8bbb730
3j16ypk3ttt
false
W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Surely, given his high profile, he'd qualify for solitary confinement. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gracious
1alNazfiL0X88a60FODl
public
contract
1,716,928,969,058
will-trump-have-a-cell-mate-before
GG
https://firebasestorage.…4fc-da5f6a7f390c
Will Trump have a cell mate before he has a running mate?
null
0.211895
547.10343
NO
null
7enjmkpvi6e
false
W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To be clear, are we talking about jail (which usually happens before a criminal conviction, if the accused is a flight risk. Sometimes minor criminals go here as well after they are sentenced) or prison (where you go after committing a major crime). Does market resolve when he is sentenced, or whem he actually shares the cell? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gracious
1alNazfiL0X88a60FODl
public
contract
1,716,929,176,708
will-trump-have-a-cell-mate-before
GG
https://firebasestorage.…4fc-da5f6a7f390c
Will Trump have a cell mate before he has a running mate?
null
0.211895
547.10343
NO
null
umjff72n9r
false
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fzmzbp9f6dn", "label": "TeddyWeverka", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The text is:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If the team dissolves, reorganizes, or pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem, this resolves NO.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As I read it, the \"pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem\" is one clause. It doesn't make sense to say \"If the team dissolves [...] unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem\" - that doesn't even parse grammatically, and also doesn't really make sense. Also the rest of the question text clearly requires the team to do the evaluation, and the team doesn't exist anymore, so it is further evidence that the sentence clearly means that the question resolves NO on dissolution of the team.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jack
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
public
contract
1,716,929,415,015
will-superalignment-succeed
jack
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
qahuctubquf
0
11,617.940729
NO
null
tn8e2qg8ouh
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🤔💭", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
mEID6f2b0a1D1XnJyf9V
public
contract
1,716,929,487,407
will-manifold-add-a-cheaper-tier-fo
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold add a cheaper tier for question creation by the end of June? (e.g. 100 mana cost)
null
null
null
null
null
krklcz18xjj
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i dont think we need to jump to 100 if poll represents the lowest baseline at 100 already.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " maybe 250 or 500 and see how that goes? would that help ux around the buttons", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "the buttons changing is still slightly annoying ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
mEID6f2b0a1D1XnJyf9V
public
contract
1,716,929,572,247
will-manifold-add-a-cheaper-tier-fo
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Manifold add a cheaper tier for question creation by the end of June? (e.g. 100 mana cost)
null
null
null
null
null
m1ks14y142
false
MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l1bhyziolbl", "label": "AlexanderMiller", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " buckle up, the Mavs will lose tonight. We'll see after that, but the choke is already started.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dustin
30EzAFfW4YdQWOqodZIQ
public
contract
1,716,929,588,176
which-team-will-win-the-western-con
Dustin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c
Which team will win the Western Conference? Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks
l1bhyziolbl
null
24,795.62525
YES
22d5dc0dcb4f
wmnunrjler
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Times thought that she won't be allowed to stand, even though she has the whip again: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://archive.ph/WYbhP", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://archive.ph/WYbhP", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think if I were 70 I'd want to take my retirement!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
alh
yeRdT27omnNdjBZKbU9O
public
contract
1,716,929,730,289
uk-general-election-2024-will-diane
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
UK General Election 2024 - Will Diane Abbot stand as a candidate?
null
null
1,000.562748
YES
9c4c8ad159d3
dcetdlhlv3
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "azbnbqlxiqs", "label": "DavidBolin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I know but that's why i said it's the most EV and smartest to do in this case purely from that perspective. But i mean more in general, i wouldn't play a lottery. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niel S
4zZR1RokKRwyN8pLDWxU
public
contract
1,716,929,770,906
would-you-rather-have-50-odds-of-wi
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Would you rather have 50% odds of winning $20K, or 1% odds of winning $1B? 🎲💵
h0miem5x3nw
null
null
null
null
mu2losnv5l
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seeing the post mortem does remind me to link my own market, about side bets on the Canada race.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Fedor/what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp-1b43dd0eb95b", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
vuoMr6LMdDZ94zQJ3BXL
public
contract
1,716,929,777,044
f1-who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
F1: Who will finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
null
null
3,045.181783
NO
f2c9094f9c04
hrl6ka4w8p
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gzc0ycej12n", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 1 market for all sporting events, if you want to close it before the sporting events resolve, does seem quite hard. You'd have to constantly be closing, liquidating and resolving.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
vuoMr6LMdDZ94zQJ3BXL
public
contract
1,716,929,954,738
f1-who-will-finish-on-the-podium-at
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
F1: Who will finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
fvwh1m1ofpe
null
3,045.181783
NO
f2c9094f9c04
jbquilnfki
false
ojCb5qmjfxMGv13gBbFW6sum22v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4xdc70m0d9l", "label": "AbilAbraham2816", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Abil Abraham
XAqynrPzqv54Y8xUNqQx
public
contract
1,716,930,056,188
which-artists-will-get-an-anthony-f
AbilAbraham2816
https://firebasestorage.…95f-f91ad5dc1346
🎧Which artists will get an Anthony Fantano (The Needle Drop) review on Youtube in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
4xdc70m0d9l
null
424.795399
YES
2c9fec648ea3