id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
hsifstxvadf | false | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f9f2sxaodja",
"label": "ChrisMills",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think those are great things, but I don’t think Time loves science or women as much as they love their reflexively Malthusian priors.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mark Bowen | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,060,975 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | MarkBowen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | 32oauvvttkl | null | 1,033.467553 | YES | 57f6b3ffdc73 |
9tw0ra8zpot | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f0iuwwjk1uu",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes, non-mods can edit the answers they submitted.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fedor | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,142,621 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | Fedor | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | e923n73470v | null | 5,499.323276 | NO | 57f6b3ffdc73 | |
ua0jpn7867 | false | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "olleq7hzon",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Anduril?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mark Bowen | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,253,608 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | MarkBowen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | e923n73470v | null | 1,033.467553 | YES | 57f6b3ffdc73 |
qbyitpt65y | false | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ua0jpn7867",
"label": "MarkBowen",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Not on any year’s list so far",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mark Bowen | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,304,960 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | MarkBowen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | e923n73470v | null | 1,033.467553 | YES | 57f6b3ffdc73 |
kyb4okjtxwj | false | yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/world/europe/blinken-ukraine-weapons-russia.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/world/europe/blinken-ukraine-weapons-russia.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Won’t count for resolution immediately but if they keep saying things like this it would make it pretty hard to resolve NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Balasar | rwb8spHLhFTFd9GtmEza | public | contract | 1,717,010,494,191 | will-the-us-remove-its-restrictions | Balasar | Will the US remove its restrictions on allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to target inside Russia by July 1st? | null | null | null | null | null | |
txr29d428y | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "apjcsnxvwcf",
"label": "adssx",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Issue polling like this is notoriously unreliable (especially in cases like this where it was done by a group that very much wanted a specific result). There's probably a 10-20% minority that would go for this, but 25-40 is implausibly high and suggests someone writing the poll with a result in mind.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,010,536,970 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 231.973026 | YES | j5fqx5xrdm |
97bszmyfh0a | false | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2",
"label": "BTE",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " can you resolve this one? (If not I'll resolve tomorrow as mod).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The following were guests between market creation and end of last year:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Aella",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Elon Musk",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Michael Malice (twice)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Tim Dodd",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "David Kipping",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Jeremi Suri",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dennis Whyte",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Omar Suleiman",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "MrBeast",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Betül Kaçar",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So should resolve 10% each.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Unless you want to consider only the answers that were added before they appear in the podcast:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Aella 33%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Elon Musk 33%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Michael Malice 34%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "or ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Aella 25%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Elon Musk 25%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Michael Malice 50% (considering he appear twice)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If you don't resolve, I'll resolve 10% each because the instructions were not clear.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is the whole list of the guests that appear during the time period:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#407 – Guillaume Verdon: Beff Jezos, E/acc Movement, Physics, Computation & AGI",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#406 – Teddy Atlas: Mike Tyson, Cus D’Amato, Boxing, Loyalty, Fear & Greatness",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#405 – Jeff Bezos: Amazon and Blue Origin",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#404 – Lee Cronin: Controversial Nature Paper on Evolution of Life and Universe",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#403 – Lisa Randall: Dark Matter, Theoretical Physics, and Extinction Events",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#402 – Michael Malice: Thanksgiving Pirate Special",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#401 – John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#400 – Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#399 – Jared Kushner: Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza, Iran, and the Middle East",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#398 – Mark Zuckerberg: First Interview in the Metaverse",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#397 – Greg Lukianoff: Cancel Culture, Deplatforming, Censorship & Free Speech",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#396 – James Sexton: Divorce Lawyer on Marriage, Relationships, Sex, Lies & Love",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#395 – Walter Isaacson: Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, Da Vinci & Ben Franklin",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#394 – Neri Oxman: Biology, Art, and Science of Design & Engineering with Nature",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#393 – Andrew Huberman: Relationships, Drama, Betrayal, Sex, and Love",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#392 – Joscha Bach: Life, Intelligence, Consciousness, AI & the Future of Humans",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#391 – Mohammed El-Kurd: Palestine",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#390 – Yuval Noah Harari: Human Nature, Intelligence, Power, and Conspiracies",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#389 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel, Palestine, Power, Corruption, Hate, and Peace",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#388 – Robert F. Kennedy Jr: CIA, Power, Corruption, War, Freedom, and Meaning",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#387 – George Hotz: Tiny Corp, Twitter, AI Safety, Self-Driving, GPT, AGI & God",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#385 – Jimmy Wales: Wikipedia",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#384 – Matthew McConaughey: Freedom, Truth, Family, Hardship, and Love",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#383 – Mark Zuckerberg: Future of AI at Meta, Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#382 – Bert Kreischer: Comedy, Drinking, Rogan, Segura, Churchill & Kim Jong Un",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#381 – Chris Lattner: Future of Programming and AI",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#380 – Neil Gershenfeld: Self-Replicating Robots and the Future of Fabrication",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#379 – Randall Kennedy: The N-Word – History of Race, Law, Politics, and Power",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#378 – Anna Frebel: Origin and Evolution of the Universe, Galaxies, and Stars",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#377 – Harvey Silverglate: Freedom of Speech",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#376 – Stephen Wolfram: ChatGPT and the Nature of Truth, Reality & Computation",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#375 – David Pakman: Politics of Trump, Biden, Bernie, AOC, Socialism & Wokeism",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#374 – Robert Playter: Boston Dynamics CEO on Humanoid and Legged Robotics",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#373 – Manolis Kellis: Evolution of Human Civilization and Superintelligent AI",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#372 – Simone Giertz: Queen of Sh*tty Robots, Innovative Engineering, and Design",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#371 – Max Tegmark: The Case for Halting AI Development",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#370 – Edward Frenkel: Reality is a Paradox – Mathematics, Physics, Truth & Love",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#369 – Paul Rosolie: Amazon Jungle, Uncontacted Tribes, Anacondas, and Ayahuasca",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#368 – Eliezer Yudkowsky: Dangers of AI and the End of Human Civilization",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#367 – Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the Future of AI",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#366 – Shannon Curry: Johnny Depp & Amber Heard Trial, Marriage, Dating & Love",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#365 – Sam Harris: Trump, Pandemic, Twitter, Elon, Bret, IDW, Kanye, AI & UFOs",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#364 – Chris Voss: FBI Hostage Negotiator",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#363 – B-Team Jiu Jitsu: Craig Jones, Nicky Rod, and Nicky Ryan",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#362 – Ginni Rometty: IBM CEO on Leadership, Power, and Adversity",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#361 – Aaron Smith-Levin: Scientology",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#360 – Tim Urban: Tribalism, Marxism, Liberalism, Social Justice, and Politics",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#359 – Andrew Strominger: Black Holes, Quantum Gravity, and Theoretical Physics",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#358 – Aella: Sex Work, OnlyFans, Porn, Escorting, Dating, and Human Sexuality",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#357 – Paul Conti: Narcissism, Sociopathy, Envy, and the Nature of Good and Evil",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#356 – Tim Dodd: SpaceX, Starship, Rocket Engines, and Future of Space Travel",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#355 – David Kipping: Alien Civilizations and Habitable Worlds",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#354 – Jeremi Suri: American Civil War",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#353 – Dennis Whyte: Nuclear Fusion and the Future of Energy",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#352 – Omar Suleiman: Islam",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#351 – MrBeast: Future of YouTube, Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#350 – Betül Kaçar: Origin of Life, Ancient DNA, Panspermia, and Aliens",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#349 – Bhaskar Sunkara: The Case for Socialism",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#348 – Nathalie Cabrol: Search for Alien Life",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#347 – Michael Malice: Christmas Special",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#346 – Ed Calderon: Mexican Drug Cartels",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#345 – Coffeezilla: SBF, FTX, Fraud, Scams, Fake Gurus, Money, Fame, and Power",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#344 – Noam Brown: AI vs Humans in Poker and Games of Strategic Negotiation",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#343 – Roger Gracie: Greatest Jiu Jitsu Competitor of All Time",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#342 – Todd Howard: Skyrim, Elder Scrolls 6, Fallout, and Starfield",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#341 – Guido van Rossum: Python and the Future of Programming",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#340 – Chris Tarbell: FBI Agent Who Took Down Silk Road",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#339 – Climate Change Debate: Bjørn Lomborg and Andrew Revkin",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "#338 – Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JAAM | l37TfvAXNasuP3HvuzR7 | public | contract | 1,717,010,587,245 | who-do-you-want-to-see-lex-fridman | egroj | Who do you want to see Lex Fridman interview? | null | null | 662.203775 | YES | a3b8e7e3aed8 | |
zu24x44d2kl | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What does this even mean",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shaked Koplewitz | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,717,010,595,368 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | null | null | 315.978827 | YES | 421cbda63d84 |
lofypyidv57 | false | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "97bszmyfh0a",
"label": "egroj",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I just saw that you are banned so I'll resolve right now",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JAAM | l37TfvAXNasuP3HvuzR7 | public | contract | 1,717,010,624,398 | who-do-you-want-to-see-lex-fridman | egroj | Who do you want to see Lex Fridman interview? | 97bszmyfh0a | null | 662.203775 | YES | a3b8e7e3aed8 | |
zoi3gxx5g8a | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "68jmpgnzzox",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ❝𝗢𝗞❞, 𝖇𝖚𝖙 𝕴 𝖆𝖒 𝖘𝖙𝖎𝖑𝖑 𝖈𝖔𝖓𝖘𝖎𝖉𝖊𝖗𝖎𝖓𝖌 𝖎𝖙 𝖆 𝖇𝖗𝖊𝖊𝖈𝖍 𝖔𝖋 𝖙𝖍𝖊 𝖙𝖗𝖚𝖘𝖙 𝖆𝖓𝖉 𝖈𝖔𝖓𝖙𝖗𝖆𝖈𝖙. ℑ 𝔥𝔞𝔳𝔢 𝔫𝔬 𝔱𝔦𝔪𝔢 𝔱𝔬 𝔟𝔢 𝔩𝔬𝔬𝔨𝔦𝔫𝔤 𝔞𝔱 𝔬𝔩𝔡 𝔪𝔞𝔯𝔨𝔢𝔱𝔰 𝔣𝔬𝔯 𝔴𝔥𝔞𝔱 𝔴𝔞𝔰 𝔡𝔬𝔫𝔢. ℑ 𝔰𝔢𝔢 𝔞 𝔠𝔩𝔬𝔰𝔢 𝔡𝔞𝔱𝔢 𝔞𝔫𝔡 𝔱𝔥𝔢 𝔱𝔦𝔪𝔢 𝔞𝔫𝔡 ℑ 𝔞𝔪 𝔱𝔯𝔞𝔡𝔦𝔫𝔤 𝔬𝔫 𝔦𝔱 𝔴𝔦𝔱𝔥 𝔫𝔬 𝔦𝔡𝔢𝔞 𝔦𝔱 𝔦𝔰 𝔟𝔢𝔦𝔫𝔤 𝔞𝔩𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔢𝔡 𝔣𝔬𝔯 𝔱𝔥𝔢 𝔰𝔢𝔩𝔣-𝔭𝔯𝔬𝔣𝔦𝔱𝔞𝔟𝔦𝔩𝔦𝔱𝔶. ╰┈☆ I will remember it for the future and during the quarterly reviews!!! ☆┈╯",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,627,490 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | h7hu95v0re | null | 145.511887 | YES | 2042f7690553 |
2te15nds8pw | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "gzyjj98oyfe",
"label": "nikki",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don’t believe this has actually happened yet so will leave this open until this month’s league closes and the prize points are actually awarded.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | David Glidden | rlbPYI8OAlcpXEb3ndCV | public | contract | 1,717,010,645,968 | manifold-cash-prizes-via-sweepstake | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | Manifold Cash Prizes via Sweepstakes Prop Bets | gzyjj98oyfe | null | 274.811706 | YES | fbf36a391f93 |
dd43cmdqx2g | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zu24x44d2kl",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " did you look at the comment below?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,717,010,690,559 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | shankypanky | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | zu24x44d2kl | null | 1,049.843861 | NO | 08463c5f4f91 | |
ro1hivyi5nq | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think this should be excluded since it was just added after the cover with Selena Gomez was already released.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,791,716 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | null | null | 5,359.196539 | NO | 7701d6e6a91f |
ehes7zvhe3w | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zoi3gxx5g8a",
"label": "Mirek",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The other major advantage to close before something like this is about to release is that people can set large limit orders without having to risk the orders being filled at 3 AM by someone who woke up before them.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,810,768 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | Joshua | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | h7hu95v0re | null | 0 | NO | 639aa22f3699 | |
ip89fu7j01 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ro1hivyi5nq",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Eh I'll just resolve it to YES so it's there on the final market results.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,010,888,345 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | Joshua | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | ro1hivyi5nq | null | 0 | NO | 639aa22f3699 | |
h1jdslpmril | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "He’s so not her. She could do better. 💅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | Vs5hvajBbG3NipnDyDF4 | public | contract | 1,717,010,921,554 | will-taylor-swift-marry-travis-kelc-b1fcc7dd2207 | ConnorDolan | Will Taylor Swift marry Travis Kelce before the end of 2026? | null | 0.273668 | 67.02057 | NO | null | |
ehcrbrofgno | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I fixed the colors to make it way more interesting than Mana vs Prize Points colors. Now it's the Cleveland Browns fighting against themselves.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Eliza | uf2vhub2JbvE3LuuJqZg | public | contract | 1,717,011,026,224 | season-13-leagues-bayesian-vs-shank | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Season 13 Leagues: @Bayesian vs @shankypanky [Short Fuse!] | null | null | null | null | null |
ivsutqr9mgd | false | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In general, it would be good if markets didn't have \"not\"s in them that reverse, which is \"yes\" and which is \"no\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Eli Tyre | 2WP2XUlxLOkyxchNiQCG | public | contract | 1,717,011,029,276 | will-i-receive-significant-evidence | EliTyre | Will I receive significant evidence that Paul Christiano is not legally bound by a mutual OpenAI NDA before EOY2024 | null | null | null | null | null | |
arisbqpwrv | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "txr29d428y",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " At least four polls have been conducted on this issue by various organizations with different political orientations, and none of them has ever found a % below 22.5% (I found this one after I wrote my comment above and then added it to the Wikipedia article). So it's unlikely to be below 20%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,011,045,008 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 252.313052 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
ha9ujde2095 | false | PVghLfFlmBO25sDxZk4yl0RMfYx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🤞🏻",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | geuber_ | Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2 | public | contract | 1,717,011,063,894 | will-the-time-100-most-influential | geuber_ | Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised? | null | 0.702884 | 3,067.205277 | NO | null | |
qjprza546hl | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "idk which is which but Bayesian has risen steeply overnight and has not only ousted me from Masters but I think it's pretty clear he's going to finish higher. I'll wave to you both from Diamond when June rolls around. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | uf2vhub2JbvE3LuuJqZg | public | contract | 1,717,011,290,342 | season-13-leagues-bayesian-vs-shank | shankypanky | Season 13 Leagues: @Bayesian vs @shankypanky [Short Fuse!] | ehcrbrofgno | null | 867.435384 | YES | nbadj4qlfq | |
8rj199o8iwy | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think Russia will be forced to recognise crimea as being part of ukraine in order to get relief from sanctions / reparations. I don't think that there will be much effective pressure on israel to recognise palestine.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | SPFMQTB1NQsWtDkMwxPK | public | contract | 1,717,011,390,456 | will-israel-recognize-a-state-of-pa-da5fd73e4603 | RemNi | Will Israel recognize a state of Palestine before Russia recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine? | null | 0.750315 | 118.470391 | NO | null | |
e27pzfmimvl | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think general personality differences between men and women are overstated, with the notable exception being attitudes towards sex and relationships. I think a lot of the perceived general differences are downstream from the fact that men and women often have their most intimate experience with the opposite sex within those contexts. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | eHgA4OV8P11rWdVKl5DH | public | contract | 1,717,011,543,157 | in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge | ConnorDolan | In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? | null | null | null | null | null | |
mk33torp16 | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ip89fu7j01",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Okay, this also affects my meta-market on how many companies will be guessed correctly: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/how-many-of-the-time-100-influentia",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "How many of the TIME 100 Influential Companies of 2024 will Manifold guess? | Manifold.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think I'll exclude it there - it's against the spirit of what I intended.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,011,698,288 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | ro1hivyi5nq | null | 5,359.196539 | NO | 7701d6e6a91f |
aoo6wxa5stm | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Note that Rare Beauty was added to the linked market after the cover with Selena Gomez was already released, so I'm not going to count that one.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Everything else is still fair game. But I'll close the market once I see that the full list has been released.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | MBBUy7umcoKGN4f2Gp8x | public | contract | 1,717,011,805,652 | how-many-of-the-time-100-influentia | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | How many of the TIME 100 Influential Companies of 2024 will Manifold guess? | null | 0.351217 | 162.647381 | NO | null |
zo72femd0yr | false | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xm6uxcmvyo",
"label": "Nat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " it would depend on the nature of the institute. For example, an institute that would later propose legislation is an obvious NO. An institute that approves every single AI thing on a case by case basis is an obvious YES. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I intend it to be on at least the same level as that US executive order from last year. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Madge | u0bAxT1DovuPSKSEIt7p | public | contract | 1,717,011,836,678 | will-australia-release-significant-e7a8810b3ef4 | Mad | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c | Will Australia release significant AI-related legislation/regulation by the end of 2024? | xm6uxcmvyo | null | null | null | null |
2l4t8og7x28 | false | hzIYuxu6ZaWyTm5Vj95BweSImVt2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "f0iuwwjk1uu",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Alright, modified.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris Mills | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,011,858,889 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | ChrisMills | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | e923n73470v | null | 860.645684 | NO | 46c5d201097d | |
vc2y6eg1o7g | false | 1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "m5FfaKz9YuXU4jLtNHpb",
"label": "dionisos",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_zmlnMdeAJ.jpg?alt=media&token=e8853cdb-5f56-4466-87a4-aad296cb5851",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | duN | pZcKLG6m17nlKqxoMMNR | public | contract | 1,717,011,884,586 | are-almost-all-women-into-women-wil | dgga | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc | Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) | FHcphS3r1WEdqRNYMy9f | null | null | null | null |
1qen3050g4g | false | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Similar market for potential arbitrage: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ryannn/will-australia-announce-the-establi?r=TWFk",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/Ryannn/will-australia-announce-the-establi?r=TWFk",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": "79% chance. Australia signed the Seoul Declaration and Statement of Intent toward International Cooperation on AI Safety Science.",
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "578a25e2-76e5-4110-a8b4-56926f9afc2c",
"image": "https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=Will+Australia+announce+the+establishment+of+an+AI+Safety+Insitute+in+2024%3F&numTraders=10&volume=1410&probability=79%25&creatorName=Ryan&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa%2FAEdFTp78IvvtirtxY_EItV8oLcmfhj2ZlagTF4t7yrhnoB0%3Ds96-c&points=-uDHUwEKBj8L4cdTN8oLPx3hx1MAOgU_XuHHU4Xl_T5g4cdTSwkFP8fhx1NlwgM_0OHHU9GeCT8O4sdTZg9PPzrix1Po6FA_VeLHU3cpST8",
"inputKey": "comment u0bAxT1DovuPSKSEIt7pcomment, repost ",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "Will Australia announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://manifold.markets/Ryannn/will-australia-announce-the-establi?r=TWFk"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Madge | u0bAxT1DovuPSKSEIt7p | public | contract | 1,717,011,912,127 | will-australia-release-significant-e7a8810b3ef4 | Mad | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c | Will Australia release significant AI-related legislation/regulation by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
x42d6043pkh | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jp9d952fls",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I for one intend to continue going to the restroom on occasion regardless of Elon.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No seriously, it’s conversational/informal for “I intend to proceed, under the working assumption that”. Kind of like, “I can’t guarantee that a meteorite won’t fall on my head if I leave the house, but I’m not going to do anything about that.”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,717,012,271,061 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | ClubmasterTransparent | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | jp9d952fls | null | 2,090.570122 | NO | 3492687fa606 | |
qvdc0zp9gw | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qxjqxdhz3c",
"label": "Bair",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Oops, corrected, thank you",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,717,012,401,687 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | mongo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | x8s8a2ivkrq | null | 68.418334 | NO | 543bcb975824 |
k9sk5kf83b | false | CUr8WuwqQBgzEXuTddC6N7fHI7J2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cilc7xro1q",
"label": "ShadowyZephyr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't think its possible other than edge cases. Frankly I can justify organ meat and bivalves much better than milk.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pickle | ldm1H6jHwzWAwLUwrZKK | public | contract | 1,717,012,478,100 | are-bees-sentient | Pickle | Are bees sentient? | eqzSOnoLByaGhhZ3Kzzy | 0.445162 | 125.522122 | YES | null | |
28uu9bghppo | false | TaVeHMj05TPoOKvyNMUGKne3nhe2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "spnnce010bm",
"label": "ConnorDolan",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " There is logic in that, but does it seem to you that the chance (even 5-10%, let`s say, although it could be much higher) of destroying all humanity and its potential future is worth the undefined probability of improving currently existing lives?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It seems to me, that with enough time, the probability of doom while reaching utopia can at least be seriously reduced (e.g. by improving human intelligence before attempting to create AI).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In terms of the mathematical calculation of expected value: if humanity survives and develops, billions * billions of happy lives could happen over its history. So shouldn`t the real chance of losing all of that outweigh the improvement of only a small currently existing fraction of humanity? ( 0.05 * 10^18 > 0.95 * 10^10, roughly speaking, even when ignoring everything else). Probably many people wouldn't play Russian roulette for a chance to win a million dollars, to draw an analogy.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | snail | 2zwnbjEX55TK5oVRDR3c | public | contract | 1,717,012,599,427 | do-you-identify-as-ea-or-eacc | fd19f3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJBxbGau3pQO_muAqbBOc6rfBK_qUUHj-lK2RboSVnhi6kzXg=s96-c | Do you identify as EA or E/acc? | 4fcm0g12f2s | null | null | null | null |
qx3px6ehqa | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lfqji68o30d",
"label": "mongo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " none",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Benjamin Ikuta | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,717,012,998,242 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | benjaminIkuta | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | lfqji68o30d | null | null | null | null | |
psnujli0hk | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qx3px6ehqa",
"label": "benjaminIkuta",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " What's the most dates you've gone on with one girl?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,717,013,095,925 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | mongo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | lfqji68o30d | null | null | null | null |
a414k8z3kiv | false | 2BxXRsWcjIU3OTyyhyjac7yyy4P2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "oph73q52u1",
"label": "admissions",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " That was sarcasm, right? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kakonomics | 06vSqIvhykbwk0RiBs09 | public | contract | 1,717,013,253,713 | will-immigration-get-better-by-2025 | Yoae | Will immigration get better by 2025? | 4pznau3k2nc | null | null | null | null | |
5zudo7yxll5 | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/udschachter/status/1795496777548022271",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/udschachter/status/1795496777548022271",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "An Israeli general predicts they will control Rafah in about a month(i.e by about June 28th), so I give good odds they'll control it by the end of July",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | gwTjk3vGB9EM5awpxXFY | public | contract | 1,717,013,429,888 | will-israel-control-rafah-by-the-en-5cb18c613b85 | mongo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | Will Israel control Rafah by the end of July? | null | 0.50722 | 204.604779 | YES | null |
2y2xb79eijd | false | d0gLX6e2hkdDKDytUUmHI6IPs6l1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qrkui9b4etf",
"label": "EugeneBixby",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " sure",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | amytimed | 03BYT7XVcmldz4rHby72 | public | contract | 1,717,013,442,558 | will-windows-12-require-an-active-s | amytimed | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK_tGje9AOz8rW3Px9LABv1Gz-jUjvnMfSIGozPuxj4IX91lRKk=s96-c | Will Windows 12 require an active subscription? | qrkui9b4etf | null | null | null | null |
qab7i352fd | false | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a414k8z3kiv",
"label": "Yoae",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Why would it be? Lots of men on the boats coming into the EU and men like engineering",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4VoEhDQVUp.png?alt=media&token=16dc3332-4ec6-429a-8c44-247f70031d87",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | lukres | 06vSqIvhykbwk0RiBs09 | public | contract | 1,717,013,485,569 | will-immigration-get-better-by-2025 | lukres | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | Will immigration get better by 2025? | 4pznau3k2nc | null | null | null | null |
5xh4fg9vb2l | false | 3EmR4hlEOnMbCGvf9OVs06xidwh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Will this resolve right after the second season? The femboys are only mentioned in the third book, late into the deterrence era, so you might want to wait for the later seasons.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | SlipperySloe | tva0yZX2bGHaYQKB41Yq | public | contract | 1,717,013,551,620 | will-the-three-body-problem-netflix | SlipperySloe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL9TEW3ZhkaigGGIIbqjV1SPUlLoxYjFsM2bWTYBMfZNUI=s96-c | Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys? | null | 0.177936 | 147.121674 | YES | null |
vzxg2uknjgl | false | sdvAY1DPFjhCKRY7lRHmn2yx3L92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Man y’all gonna be drowning in debt just like useless d mid if y’all buy his stock",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | KidFury | 4LzxKthtg1dJIhQYCyZN | public | contract | 1,717,013,764,577 | kidd-stock | KidFury | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbBMl52pQvDPtQruELI_0fwNgK0mTa-wXqbhn-saJEYQ=s96-c | Kid Stock | null | null | null | null | null |
ul3jmb64wg9 | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qvdc0zp9gw",
"label": "mongo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Newton also was famously proud to be a virgin. Pro/Con?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,717,013,780,348 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | Stralor | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | x8s8a2ivkrq | null | 418.081121 | YES | 543bcb975824 | |
b3z0myvuejd | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2",
"label": "AndrewG",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " can you clarify your resolution criteria for us? This is where I'm at too, but there is some ambiguity.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dan | f422ZIhxUC0QqQBiaKMQ | public | contract | 1,717,013,830,489 | will-openai-still-be-doing-superali | DanMan314 | Will OpenAI still be doing Superalignment in June 2024? | 9e6zvrbqw2e | 0.49 | 3,391.530755 | YES | null | |
0o752j6zlpgq | false | sdvAY1DPFjhCKRY7lRHmn2yx3L92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "eOPsCXaSH6AN5XnEcIwx",
"label": "HablolAhmed",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " More like down to the lava 😂",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | KidFury | LtAlXWjD4dhTAQGVB3Sl | public | contract | 1,717,013,857,222 | kaidou-stock | KidFury | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbBMl52pQvDPtQruELI_0fwNgK0mTa-wXqbhn-saJEYQ=s96-c | Kaidou Stock | eOPsCXaSH6AN5XnEcIwx | null | null | null | null |
9zi15hcqwhk | false | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No verdict on day one: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1795909433114931704?t=bb1UpA-RqYwEL8E-HnNojA&s=19",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1795909433114931704?t=bb1UpA-RqYwEL8E-HnNojA&s=19",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Hyperlincoln | upzd89pHEFqyJ9Lg6oHI | public | contract | 1,717,013,859,675 | for-how-many-days-will-the-jury-del | Hyperlincoln | For how many days will the jury deliberate in People v. Donald Trump (the New York criminal case)? | null | null | 469.465513 | NO | 1u2jpqu8vm | |
fhdzkasw7pj | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "how would you count people in an orgy?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,013,899,807 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Stralor | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | null | null | 522.555029 | NO | 23270cf1066a | |
n50cnykiaj | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fhdzkasw7pj",
"label": "Stralor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Would be rude to have your phone notes app out, so probably on your fingers.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,013,982,694 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 118.133722 | NO | 23270cf1066a | |
5z50067yimw | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n50cnykiaj",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " somebody bring an abacus 🧮 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,014,166 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | shankypanky | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 113.324006 | NO | 23270cf1066a | |
k1thdgr314 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "🫦",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,040,854 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 118.133722 | NO | 23270cf1066a | |
239w85fqxbu | false | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolves yes, round 3 norway chess",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Weezing | QeMVgzhJMtkmtbebYcDB | public | contract | 1,717,014,087,126 | praggnanandhaa-beats-magnus-in-a-cl | Weezing | Praggnanandhaa beats Magnus in a classical chess format in-person standard chess game | null | 0.732986 | 7,504.296243 | YES | null | |
ik61qilybci | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm willing to bring my own abacus and observe from the cuck chair to keep count ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "resolution integrity is v important to me ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,138,614 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | shankypanky | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 113.324006 | NO | 23270cf1066a | |
lonnth51vo | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ik61qilybci",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "the cuck chair",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,164,456 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Stralor | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 2,335.594353 | YES | 9f9b323913d3 | |
324cbtvsy8s | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "▂▃▅▇█▓▒ 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝗲𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦𝗔 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁. 𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱!▒▓█▇▅▃▂",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHxTt8TvVuP.png?alt=media&token=cca106e7-39ef-4e33-be64-e1f5994473bf",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | SmugDMYo2d7oLhZShdlo | public | contract | 1,717,014,233,374 | would-you-have-sex-with-a-robot | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Would you have sex with a robot? | null | null | null | null | null |
t95tzk5guok | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think the move here is to seduce Shel and then get him to agree to a monogomous relationship so you can bet up \"1\" and your profit is locked in. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,264,027 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | null | null | 0 | NO | ec0f22ccc70a | |
s61mvd520p | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lonnth51vo",
"label": "Stralor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Common parlance, surely? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,307,671 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 0 | NO | ec0f22ccc70a | |
3e43p5g8q5t | false | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3qYzdPePJGu2kppxy8i5",
"label": "DavidBolin",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " or the author (me) isn't familiar with current expert consensus as stated in the description ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Carson Gale | eHgA4OV8P11rWdVKl5DH | public | contract | 1,717,014,326,809 | in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge | CarsonGale | In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? | 3qYzdPePJGu2kppxy8i5 | null | null | null | null | |
zw9k3z586x | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "t95tzk5guok",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " alas, I don't do monogamy, even for profit",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,342,516 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Stralor | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | t95tzk5guok | null | 2,335.594353 | YES | 9f9b323913d3 | |
pppuk2p17ks | false | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2",
"label": "nathanwei",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think just like the West Bank, even if 80% of Israelis don't want to settle Gaza, they don't sufficiently mind it to stop the 20% who do from settling there. So there will probably end up being settlements again. It will be some coalitional concession.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "In other topics, any Israelis (other than myself) coming to Manifest?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | colorednoise | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,014,416,153 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | colorednoise | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | null | null | null | |
czrftr8jj5 | false | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " the creator's account is deleted",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Arky | GZxpSHmwnyMTpjBYL5tz | public | contract | 1,717,014,488,972 | will-daniel-perry-be-pardoned-until | Arky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | Will Daniel Perry be pardoned until the end of 2025? | 60eldwqmbb8 | 0.98519 | 1,400.126331 | YES | null |
8zhij6jtlu | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pppuk2p17ks",
"label": "colorednoise",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " We have questions on that. People think it won’t happen.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,014,506,867 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | nathanwei | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | null | null | null | |
528xdwtnksr | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Another strategy would be to seduce Shelvacu repeatedly, disguised as a different person each time. This would cause anyone watching to lose count and bet on options higher than they should.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,520,432 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | t95tzk5guok | null | 0 | NO | ec0f22ccc70a | |
451har7b74w | false | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8zhij6jtlu",
"label": "nathanwei",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " can you point me to that question? I can't seem to find it",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | colorednoise | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,014,577,843 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | colorednoise | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | null | null | null | |
cbi25psku94 | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This will easily be the most competitive Ally of the Year ever.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Lex Fridman took a professional risk to set up the 2v2 Finkelstein debate, which exploded Tiny's notoriety.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "notsoErudite has set up the Bridges Podcast. It seems like she's working hard and there's lots of time left in the year, time for for some really big interviews to be set up, maybe even time for the podcast to start growing into the DGG media organization.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "LonerBox is the debate pedophilia second in command, and going to Israel with Destiny. Surely Destiny's preferred brother in arms is a strong contender.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold | lJQKzuBdocRJDGvazK1i | public | contract | 1,717,014,595,268 | who-will-win-ally-of-the-year-desti | Tumbles | Who will win Ally of the Year? (Destiny Awards 2024) | null | null | 601.639937 | YES | e9fa266bffec | |
8d3iyblzz4s | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "451har7b74w",
"label": "colorednoise",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I search “Gaza settle” in browse and I get 6 questions.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,014,619,047 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | nathanwei | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | null | null | null | |
llml1f5zr0a | false | 0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8d3iyblzz4s",
"label": "nathanwei",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " thanks, sometimes the search is sensitive to specific tenses (and you are right, it's lower than I expected, though if it was conditional on Israel occupying Gaza I would definitely buy it higher)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | colorednoise | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,014,750,317 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | colorednoise | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | null | null | null | |
3mr6y0axmxz | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "so this is what it's like inside the mind of a top trader ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,014,791,612 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | shankypanky | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | t95tzk5guok | null | 113.324006 | NO | 23270cf1066a | |
14ooergz4pd | false | rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5xh4fg9vb2l",
"label": "SlipperySloe",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If season two ends and it seems plausible that femboy aid shipments could still be on the way then this market will wait before resolving NO. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold | tva0yZX2bGHaYQKB41Yq | public | contract | 1,717,014,977,346 | will-the-three-body-problem-netflix | Tumbles | Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys? | 5xh4fg9vb2l | null | null | null | null | |
duixebzm199 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1",
"label": "DanMan314",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think this one counts: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj",
"label": "/Shelvacu/how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "51k liquidity added by the creator, dependent MC",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | YTDgFoakoM4TQxlSmR6g | public | contract | 1,717,015,178,654 | will-3-or-more-markets-have-more-th | Ziddletwix | Will 3 or more markets have more than Ṁ40,000 of liquidity added by regular users by the end of July? | null | 0.69301 | 1,508.869858 | YES | null | |
wd2g8tgcryn | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "3mr6y0axmxz",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Alas I'm only a minnow",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse/spicyfest?tab=leaderboards",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": " here",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FifKjdsVqLz.png?alt=media&token=41bf785f-bccc-48bb-8e19-1e41ceaa06a4",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2",
"label": "Mira",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " do you have any sage advice for us?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,015,183,693 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | t95tzk5guok | null | 0 | NO | ec0f22ccc70a | |
baiviridjp | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is at 90%. Harsh! ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " do you smoke 5 packs of cigs a day or something?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | cpV1rzHTrZoGWghj3XiH | public | contract | 1,717,015,204,378 | what-diseases-or-other-ailments-wil | ClubmasterTransparent | 💊 What diseases, ailments, or treatments will I get in my lifetime? | null | null | null | null | null | |
a6aylqifpz7 | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6QCvLHG6Lw.jpg?alt=media&token=2ec05e63-c6f3-4f7c-99b8-7596492873b1",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The smallest elephant, the African forest elephant, is facing severe population decline from poaching and habitat loss.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB | public | contract | 1,717,015,388,854 | which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda | Stralor | Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040? | null | null | 44.444444 | NO | 2f355c04f544 | |
q4941d94upg | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "duixebzm199",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yup, counts. That's 2!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dan | YTDgFoakoM4TQxlSmR6g | public | contract | 1,717,015,461,391 | will-3-or-more-markets-have-more-th | DanMan314 | Will 3 or more markets have more than Ṁ40,000 of liquidity added by regular users by the end of July? | duixebzm199 | null | null | null | null | |
n37aj7fpf6 | false | P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Update on the alts: Moderators have banned seven alt accounts of one of the users trading on this market. I'm sorry I didn't catch this earlier, and would like thank For Truth for bringing it to my attention.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Six of these alts were betting on Norman Borlaug, and their votes will not be counted in the final tally or on any other markets on which they bet.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Please trade accordingly.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | houstonEuler | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,717,015,537,561 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | houstonEuler | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | null | null | null | null | null | |
x7bh6lcos6o | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "To the original question, surely not every person in the room for the orgy counts right? Should be the same standard as any non-orgy increment IMO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,015,587,097 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 0 | NO | ec0f22ccc70a | |
7svirb0egfw | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n37aj7fpf6",
"label": "houstonEuler",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " SAD! Loser grainboi cucks in shambles. Newton GigaUnits stay winning",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,717,015,646,674 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | Ziddletwix | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | n37aj7fpf6 | null | 21.737147 | NO | e6ecb515d6fc | |
73y8n78isee | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Jury dismissed for today, does this resolve NO?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | 20uexQlMfP579ouv31gS | public | contract | 1,717,015,682,501 | what-will-happen-in-the-courtroom-d | ClubmasterTransparent | What will happen in the courtroom during Trump's Manhattan trial? [ADD ANSWERS] | null | null | 524.148911 | YES | 716a18092c65 | |
k5edcso3ol | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "David's tiger is such a rare and vulnerable type of butterfly from the Phillipines that I'm unable to find a picture of it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Here's one of a related species:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fv14-NDYw6o.jpg?alt=media&token=7ccf6d78-10eb-4059-bea7-46981f2cd205",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | X1W0G9aHqMyRGlgPvkfB | public | contract | 1,717,015,773,032 | which-of-these-iucn-critically-enda | Stralor | Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040? | null | null | 44.444444 | NO | 2f355c04f544 | |
fo1jw0zljkq | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "x7bh6lcos6o",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I agree, but just want to confirm",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,015,794,667 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Stralor | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | 2,335.594353 | YES | 9f9b323913d3 | |
9rc0tpynfp6 | false | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "czrftr8jj5",
"label": "Arky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolving as mod based on the source above",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JAAM | GZxpSHmwnyMTpjBYL5tz | public | contract | 1,717,015,814,415 | will-daniel-perry-be-pardoned-until | egroj | Will Daniel Perry be pardoned until the end of 2025? | 60eldwqmbb8 | null | null | null | null | |
ze15zcftp3b | false | 2BjZn7l2acSHgyHaFdXsStawcM12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That's an inclusive or, right? It only has to beat any GPT-4 on either MMLU or LMSYS, not both?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac Carruthers | CsFFqpYZBlrxTWE82P2L | public | contract | 1,717,015,935,804 | will-xai-release-a-model-that-match | IsaacCarruthers | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcXXLFBQ4W22BzdB2pjzWmPe8QTc5dbbJiQblZf_gXrgLw=s96-c | Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024? | null | 0.472197 | 194.561216 | YES | null |
prglmnzucfr | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Here's a funny one:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://cooldudezone.substack.com/p/my-favorite-conspiracy-theory-confirmed",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://cooldudezone.substack.com/p/my-favorite-conspiracy-theory-confirmed",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | sz27szZN1a5BdWC3Hajk | public | contract | 1,717,015,938,173 | what-conspiracy-theories-not-includ | PlasmaBallin | What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100? | null | null | 225.546215 | NO | 86f0523c0c20 | |
p9f1w8z4ct7 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dropped like an apple",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,717,016,060,647 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | Joshua | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | n37aj7fpf6 | null | 78.230497 | YES | e6ecb515d6fc | |
2yhwsnb2uca | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The All Memeing Eye was correct about the mechanism for the rigging. I resolved it YES because it closed at 49%, so a YES resolution gives me back more liquidity than I put in.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | PfCuB0VSA1Eogniymzb0 | public | contract | 1,717,016,098,099 | rigged-gambling-game | PlasmaBallin | Rigged Gambling Game | null | null | null | null | null | |
dcw2adujqf | false | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "n37aj7fpf6",
"label": "houstonEuler",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I’m somewhat grateful for this debacle, because it introduced me to how absolutely awesome Norman Borlaug is.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mark Bowen | URJwyGSo2oNAsIhYNpvS | public | contract | 1,717,016,191,551 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-elite-8-plac | MarkBowen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Elite 8) | n37aj7fpf6 | null | 657.455002 | NO | 7c695945736b |
n0x5t9nex3 | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There are plausible futures where the answer is <5% or >90%, and the road to them is very different from ones where to answer is 39% or 61%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,016,191,592 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | null | null | null | null | null |
uj41fi8gf1r | false | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Could be argued as “yes” as Horii made a statement about wanting to honor the people who worked on it and passed away, but nothing further than that… so it’s a “NO” to me.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | dwax | ae5Ueuc1OqSDQsH888Oy | public | contract | 1,717,016,192,077 | will-we-get-any-information-about-d | dwax | Will we get any information about Dragon Quest 12 by the DQ’s 38th anniversary? | null | null | null | null | null | |
0fxrhaw7p1c | false | em5cYfHRh1b5qu1hgpfZiNqOELr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It’s official now, contract until end of 2026/27. How long will it really be though?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://fcbayern.com/en/news/2024/05/contract-until-2027-vincent-kompany-to-be-new-fc-bayern-head-coach",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://fcbayern.com/en/news/2024/05/contract-until-2027-vincent-kompany-to-be-new-fc-bayern-head-coach",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gideon | ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C | public | contract | 1,717,016,513,979 | will-kompany-coach-bayern-munich-fo | Gideon37 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgWS0P6It5V1UWwE65A1u9nwHfxpp1TvnxyGgqr54x=s96-c | Will Kompany coach Bayern Munich for at least two full seasons? | null | null | null | null | null |
sene9f9g3cj | false | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "t95tzk5guok",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " How do you know I won't cheat on you for profit? :p",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shelvacu | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,016,600,601 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Shelvacu | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | t95tzk5guok | null | null | null | null | |
mv7pgq5huk | false | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "om2ME8UmUhhGo7Qlu1Fuhil8Zrn2",
"label": "AndrewMillerbccf",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " - this can resolve \"Yes\" ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62064552",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "now",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | DAC | woKcrIgbowIaFUH8Cg26 | public | contract | 1,717,016,632,375 | will-a-uk-general-election-be-calle-b92ed66b85a9 | DaAdCh | Will a uk general election be called in the first six months of 2024? | null | 0.99 | 769.647448 | YES | null | |
icluhl4ww6 | false | kn2TZu17rWX5mo0SJ5RlJAJUpNq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "beating any GPT-4 variant on lmsys isn't that hard these days. Claude Haiku beats gpt-4-0613",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Josh | CsFFqpYZBlrxTWE82P2L | public | contract | 1,717,016,658,307 | will-xai-release-a-model-that-match | JoshYou | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrixn6xEvkjfMSbEWA2GPpmp3AC9OrViaQcFQglzg=s96-c | Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024? | 9dinb887o3k | 0.472197 | 947.293999 | YES | null |
ij9lujx2ao | false | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "x7bh6lcos6o",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2",
"label": "Stralor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "surely not every person in the room for the orgy counts right? Should be the same standard as any non-orgy increment",
"type": "text"
}
],
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "blockquote"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "That's correct",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shelvacu | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,016,667,757 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Shelvacu | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | fhdzkasw7pj | null | null | null | null | |
jmjs7y0zri | false | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "VdbwzTgpBYV2lY2aw5T6m4ISbAD3",
"label": "prognostic8r",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " - ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.nba.com/news/celtics-pacers-takeaways-game-4-2024-nba-playoffs",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "this can resolve \"No\"",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | DAC | WK2c5tURYcBts3Y7ihaM | public | contract | 1,717,016,815,110 | will-the-indiana-pacers-win-the-fin | DaAdCh | Will the Indiana Pacers win the finals in the 2023-2024 NBA season? | null | 0.009044 | 346.144545 | NO | null | |
piwhg880mtq | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "llml1f5zr0a",
"label": "colorednoise",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " If Gaza has occupation but no setttlements and it’s not a diisaster, perhaps the same can be repeated in the West Bank (of course without the blocs).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,016,837,405 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | nathanwei | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | null | null | null | |
nv5cq8xgsrk | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "sene9f9g3cj",
"label": "Shelvacu",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Babe, are you seeing other people?\"",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Wish I could answer that, but I'm glomar-ing.\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,016,847,986 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Joshua | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | t95tzk5guok | null | 0 | NO | ec0f22ccc70a | |
t0k6eq29ya | false | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vab6q7pc6k",
"label": "Mirek",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " What would it take to convince you? Why is it so hard for you to believe somebody had sex?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shelvacu | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,016,869,892 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Shelvacu | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | vab6q7pc6k | null | null | null | null | |
zp040715b6q | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://twitter.com/aliejules/status/1795901962728210569",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://twitter.com/aliejules/status/1795901962728210569",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | nA6nc7ncjMzF1XFmx9EV | public | contract | 1,717,016,891,926 | will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo-924b66b9430e | RemNi | Will Midjourney v7 be released before Sep 2024? | null | 0.718329 | 44.662501 | YES | null | |
5j58mvlzr7a | false | 8t6F1Tpg1pPhYJoEwOuqr92VnbJ3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tmsd3fa699a",
"label": "DanMan314",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't get the sandwich one, do get the other two.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Galisted | x07rd3JfAdK5faELuDna | public | contract | 1,717,017,133,284 | will-google-pause-or-remove-ai-over | Galisted | Will Google pause or remove AI Overviews by the end of May? | tmsd3fa699a | 0.033758 | 5,868.581993 | YES | null | |
xqet9bgdlf | false | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wd2g8tgcryn",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " This market looks like you need complex financial derivatives to hedge against orgy risk. Someone's going to be \"clever\" and bump him up from 2 to 3, put $500 on 3, and then the orgy will take it to 10.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "\"Insider trading\" isn't as absolute if someone else gets inside too...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mira | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,017,320,020 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Mira | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | t95tzk5guok | null | null | null | null | |
zwfvd9bc0lm | false | 3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "28uu9bghppo",
"label": "fd19f3",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " But the flip side is that more time isn’t a guarantee of a good outcome. It would only help in the marginal case where alignment turns out to be hard but not impossible. I think it’s much more likely that it’s either impossible or really easy.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The analogy would be more like would you play Russian roulette for a million dollars now, or wait a year to play Russian roulette for a million dollars adjusted for the time value of money. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Connor Dolan | 2zwnbjEX55TK5oVRDR3c | public | contract | 1,717,017,336,561 | do-you-identify-as-ea-or-eacc | ConnorDolan | Do you identify as EA or E/acc? | 4fcm0g12f2s | null | null | null | null | |
j88nc0nv6aq | false | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "These currently add up to 243% and if I'm understanding correctly they should sum to 100%, yes?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mike Blume | BceikhTW1LCAO5FlW1VG | public | contract | 1,717,018,085,873 | conditional-on-trumpbiden-winning-t | MichaelBlume | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ? | null | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.