id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2 classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2 values | commentType stringclasses 1 value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2 values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
l5pr0zy8axa | false | hQbeiz4VmvY6HxxJAT87V5pFuhS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Gonna start a new movement: effective narcissism?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Mark Bowen | rvV9kDFlQ77H1hb5rBs1 | public | contract | 1,717,079,917,207 | will-narcissistic-orgying-tech-nerd | MarkBowen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrhpHD9z-sCsnmuOnjdBUlN3oTne-OC3D7JhuvNtooLwQT=s96-c | Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills? | htpy5impm2 | 0.539481 | 256.501253 | YES | null |
lkj9oyhbzs | false | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wxs450lvfqb",
"label": "ChrisPrichard",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " What's your stance on audio books?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mongo | smANSajbPwRwf9ik7p82 | public | contract | 1,717,080,033,058 | which-books-in-this-list-will-i-rea | mongo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | Which books in this list will I "really like"? | wxs450lvfqb | null | 506.79318 | YES | 536d50136e9c |
mba3a7e8azd | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "he's announcing GPT-5 🚀 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | 5UzdJIyhO0QyrfJrsQGM | public | contract | 1,717,080,148,170 | what-will-be-true-of-david-lynchs-m | shankypanky | What will be true of David Lynch's mysterious June 5th announcement? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | null | null | null | |
494989r1gdk | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2",
"label": "aashiq",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " would troops sent to Ukraine to train Ukranian troops count? Based on description I'm guessing no?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | mint | cTjzuW6P6R4P0YXUTehl | public | contract | 1,717,080,170,516 | will-any-nato-nation-send-troops-to | mint | Will any NATO nation (including France) send troops to Ukraine in 2024? | null | 0.17174 | 358.408671 | NO | null | |
nkeqmqig6q | false | aitOeHRE8UeJMGdGjUFzqc9gJup2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "where is the crocodile option ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Robin Donquixote | PwBcifRV37KEJxtFEWzc | public | contract | 1,717,080,351,538 | who-is-the-by-blood-son-of-rocks-d | RobinDonquixote | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLGgec-9yNrLwv88K_8tiZcRjsYgkDKajp9nPQeqpoEX0gFBQ=s96-c | Who is the by blood son of Rocks D. Xebec? | null | null | null | null | null |
2g6uq9ysr0m | false | 9tMOYH0haQedEtscs52ovqodo3t2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lkj9oyhbzs",
"label": "mongo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Definitely enjoy them! Usually podcasts fill most listening time, though.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Chris Prichard | smANSajbPwRwf9ik7p82 | public | contract | 1,717,080,536,127 | which-books-in-this-list-will-i-rea | ChrisPrichard | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYidkxgB2nkeLVgNFdhGolb0T_m7SDNRfGUzOifoQ=s96-c | Which books in this list will I "really like"? | wxs450lvfqb | null | null | null | null |
caqmcaoax6 | false | d6gReYVHeVNmoXadzf5mcV5W79a2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "s0125t9b0np",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " nothing out of the ordinary",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | CALIGULA | rKGDO1xfx8p5DSGhPLRB | public | contract | 1,717,080,598,716 | will-my-cat-die-this-week-or-next-w | CALIGULA | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLk6Y3P6dsnk6zEUBuGCz7C5v8W1wCCHSyg0tPGCRm6fjH9ojiE=s96-c | will my cat die this week or nah? | s0125t9b0np | 50 | 22.74859 | NO | null |
cbtbn8f1het | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "this should resolve yes ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "Oa8lKJXI9AZWPV2welD0bq6wzng1",
"label": "axr",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/sama/status/1790065743221907960?t=XWfjhr9cXZT-PpAIaVJJrw&s=19",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://x.com/sama/status/1790065743221907960?t=XWfjhr9cXZT-PpAIaVJJrw&s=19",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | WYlaWtavxx66rJ2uiHMc | public | contract | 1,717,080,624,858 | is-gpt2chatbot-made-by-openai | shankypanky | Is gpt2-chatbot made by OpenAI? | null | null | null | null | null | |
mtircolrm4g | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No takers on this?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | fbSgG99mHhdUSExucOQw | public | contract | 1,717,080,701,182 | when-will-the-community-movie-be-re | Lorelai | When will the Community movie be released? | null | null | 290.852947 | YES | 974957c71b0f | |
u9hyzc6wqt | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "j9bz2tklboj",
"label": "JonathanRay",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " \"Republic\" means \"no monarchy\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The means don't matter to this option",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But IIRC, the European Court of Human Rights has ruled that they cannot be arbitrarily deprived of their personal property; I don't know which properties they own personally and which are owned by the Crown",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bruno | BS41cNJFT3qSPLnjNKaJ | public | contract | 1,717,080,815,136 | what-will-happen-to-the-uk-before-2 | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | What will happen to the UK before 2050? | j9bz2tklboj | null | null | null | null |
kd46tq0k8zq | false | XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "puiusu83on",
"label": "JonathanRay",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " so if Labour win this election it resolves YES?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/27/starmer-im-a-socialist-and-progressive-who-will-always-put-country-first",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/27/starmer-im-a-socialist-and-progressive-who-will-always-put-country-first",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Fion | BS41cNJFT3qSPLnjNKaJ | public | contract | 1,717,081,236,484 | what-will-happen-to-the-uk-before-2 | Fion | What will happen to the UK before 2050? | g3rz1l82sw | null | 267.703587 | YES | dae75b17e1ff | |
57fxa1gjufa | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/mizzy-tiktok-prankster-prison-release-bacari-bronze-o-garro-london-live-b1131157.html",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/mizzy-tiktok-prankster-prison-release-bacari-bronze-o-garro-london-live-b1131157.html",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looks like he served six weeks at the end of 2023",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ernie | 0YuHMYeYx8mcMH1pq08p | public | contract | 1,717,081,329,749 | mizzy-serves-at-least-a-month-in-pr | Ernie | Mizzy serves at least a month in prison before 2025 | null | null | null | null | null | |
irmleo2ni7 | false | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I would have put Diogenes on there.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Krantz | jZXgDYzTWCsZTGGyFFEr | public | contract | 1,717,081,369,640 | who-will-win-the-manifold-goat-tour | Krantz | Who will win the Manifold G.O.A.T. Tournament? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ssfetnw69f | false | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ih9eljv0dy",
"label": "adssx",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " They speak the same language and they largely cooperate. The partition was successful, as opposed to similar attempts in Israel-Palestine. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Craig Talbert | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,081,376,637 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 166.736433 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
oq6r9b9j0ns | false | s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "e4sxkc9lb7f",
"label": "ManifoldPolitics",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " No commentary from you, I need it to be neutral from main account creator!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Quantum Gambler | xA5k0OoRuGyVgZ7TrGJ1 | public | contract | 1,717,081,500,004 | trump-vs-biden-odds-will-republican | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on June 15th? | e4sxkc9lb7f | null | null | null | null |
eopnag7z2 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "aella (unlisted) was predicted G but resolved R , the runner up",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | uTlSC8uAmahCXmb1M66r | public | contract | 1,717,081,622,542 | which-persons-hogwarts-house-will-b | strutheo | 🪄Which person's Hogwarts House will be the most difficult for Manifold to predict? | null | null | 680.459665 | YES | 72f58b5064a9 | |
j2c86v9sxj | false | P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "irmleo2ni7",
"label": "Krantz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Unfortunately, he didn't make it past the nomination round. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/houstonEuler/which-16-philosophy-and-religion-ca",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/houstonEuler/which-16-philosophy-and-religion-ca",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | houstonEuler | jZXgDYzTWCsZTGGyFFEr | public | contract | 1,717,081,691,794 | who-will-win-the-manifold-goat-tour | houstonEuler | Who will win the Manifold G.O.A.T. Tournament? | irmleo2ni7 | null | null | null | null | |
2o36dhw4gvp | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p0s0r24b8np",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Note that some of those remaining expected reviews will fall outside of the remaining time range of this market.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Panfilo | DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ | public | contract | 1,717,081,745,883 | will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha | Panfilo | Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%? | p0s0r24b8np | null | 9,311.423794 | YES | 52c8a526fb05 | |
yi3ndtuaa8m | false | hjU629P5HnP5sv0bdEkHZKjHDzO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "GDI increased 1.5% compared to 1.3% for GDP",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Zachariah Schwab | F7K3VjrRPTBXwpoKFCVf | public | contract | 1,717,081,810,175 | will-q1-2024-us-gdi-grow-faster-tha | ZachariahSchwab | Will Q1 2024 US GDI grow faster than GDP? | null | 0.512656 | 1,437.501609 | YES | null | |
engc8t002oq | false | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The Opta supercomputer predicts more Champions League glory for Madrid, who triumphed in normal time on Saturday in 55.6% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Dortmund succeeded in just 21.4% of those data-led sims inside 90 minutes, while the draw – sending the final to extra-time – was forecast in 23.0%.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FwVDFiQmpXh.png?alt=media&token=a8ca53cf-7e25-4d30-8624-bc7be32fdf3c",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Universal FC ⚽ | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,717,081,870,845 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | UniversalFC | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | null | 0.29079 | 9,587.859691 | NO | null | |
e6hk5n1qkq | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mgmfs1nz6c",
"label": "KongoLandwalker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't know. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Eliza | XrIbNfM9iiuhRzACE8fC | public | contract | 1,717,081,886,708 | will-a-1-cent-coin-be-issued-by-the | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will a 1 cent coin be issued by the US government in 2030? | mgmfs1nz6c | null | null | null | null |
88cyu69w8po | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zysg0q86kf",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Okay so we only need to convince a few hundred people. We can do this. If they don't budge, we elect a new one. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Eliza | XrIbNfM9iiuhRzACE8fC | public | contract | 1,717,081,925,883 | will-a-1-cent-coin-be-issued-by-the | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will a 1 cent coin be issued by the US government in 2030? | 3qfaraztm26 | null | null | null | null |
lcsknbqruo | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ssfetnw69f",
"label": "CraigTalbert",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " They largely cooperate?! Check the ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashmir_conflict",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "Kashmir conflict",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". Speaking the other's language (identical languages, or high mutual intelligibility, or just learning it from a young age) didn't prevent conflicts in the UK vs Ireland, the US civil war, Russia vs Ukraine, the Koreas, Tutsi vs Hutus, the various Balkan Wars, the Spanish Civil War, the Cyprus conflict, Biafra, etc.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,082,092,814 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 252.313052 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
r4ahhgjkmx | false | JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "More about the French military trainers I mean instructors here: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-could-announce-sending-military-trainers-ukraine-soon-diplomats-say-2024-05-30/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-could-announce-sending-military-trainers-ukraine-soon-diplomats-say-2024-05-30/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | $aturation | lHRfcBWCswVpBPLe0PE2 | public | contract | 1,717,082,355,734 | will-a-nato-country-put-boots-on-th | smokey | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c | Will a NATO country put boots on the ground in Ukraine before 1 Sept, 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
or517vdmtts | false | PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSz57Dob50d.png?alt=media&token=240c2f3b-a03b-45cf-b3e9-8604f82cf38b",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "wtf is the lord mad at me?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | 0xSMW | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,082,376,998 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | 0xSMW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebzQADjl9sxVe3FwAwXHh0rvywWS3WBEkCu89gmBWd7hs=s96-c | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | null | null | 60.046247 | YES | 71d593984f7a |
w5sailrstq | false | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "a2uuptm65cf",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " that makes it the funniest top. To be möst influential you have to be most attention craving (seek being mentioning and pay for the chance). Counterproductive.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kongo Landwalker | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,082,475,358 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | KongoLandwalker | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | 0oj6ez8my73e | null | 104.439168 | YES | 57f6b3ffdc73 | |
72g47aussr4 | false | qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm resolving this question now, a few hours early. The bug has been fixed and my streak shows 233, which is as high as it needs to go for this market. If something absolutely crazy happens that breaks the streak display today, I can revisit the resolution, but I think that's very unlikely.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | robm | yXryS9eo9aP5Is4ZxGYN | public | contract | 1,717,082,580,722 | will-my-streak-show-0-this-week | robm | Will my streak show 0 this week? | null | null | null | null | null | |
1vrym2gmhfc | false | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lcsknbqruo",
"label": "adssx",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " None of these were intractable conflicts for 75+ years. Not discounting the The Kashmir conflict, but you can’t draw any real comparison there to Israel-Palestine. Militant groups in Kashmir have used similar tactics, but the suicide bombing in 2019 was a massive deal, whereas during the second intifada, those were weekly occurrences. Reading the prospects for improvement here (where, for example, real negotiations occur) is much more promising scenarios than Israel-Palestine.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/india-pakistan-two-decades-after-the-cease-fire-agreement",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": " https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/india-pakistan-two-decades-after-the-cease-fire-agreement",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Craig Talbert | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,082,898,245 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 166.736433 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
vmzrqaff32 | false | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1u95d695yiz",
"label": "AlexCao",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Religious and religious beliefs change, but they need exposure to the rest of the world. This is why cults and other groups try to discourage this. In Israel-Palestine’s case, the mutual unintelligibly does it for them naturally. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Craig Talbert | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,083,006,222 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 166.736433 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
00a81o1gufpyw | false | JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think people born -91 will reach longevity escape velocity, so the only thing that can stop you from becoming 2100yo would be some type of kinetic death. Hopefully you are careful with the kickboxing, stay safe!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | $aturation | 9QqJBfBd2iDe32DmQ80U | public | contract | 1,717,083,138,702 | how-will-i-die | smokey | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c | How will I die? | null | null | null | null | null |
d9phd9wu32f | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1vrym2gmhfc",
"label": "CraigTalbert",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " The Kashmir conflict is as long as the Israeli one with a similar death toll: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ". And 75 years is fairly short in the grand scheme of things: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_by_duration",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_by_duration",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Look at the longest conflicts, many belligerents spoke the same languages (Anglo–French: the English court was speaking more French than English for a very long time, Danish and Swedish, English and Scottish, etc.)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "3d215b2d-380d-4327-aa58-1f8743fd9f5d",
"image": "https://en.wikipedia.org/static/images/icons/wikipedia.png",
"inputKey": "comment rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSGcomment 4bzlpaf4gf",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "List of conflicts by duration - Wikipedia",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_by_duration"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,083,184,135 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 252.313052 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
bnlxyjuq21c | false | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "djuejw9jzm9",
"label": "Daniel_MC",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " is right on both counts. I think I’ve made those two things clearer now in the description",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Joshua | RLt8Q8zPq2NMouT17cIn | public | contract | 1,717,083,395,987 | will-trump-say-all-50-states-before | JoshuaB | Will Trump say all 50 states before the election? | djuejw9jzm9 | 0.310319 | -0 | YES | null | |
2axs5i7624h | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "muzv56bm0oh",
"label": "k83f86",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " yeah, this is on my todo list!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ian Philips | Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv | public | contract | 1,717,083,507,313 | agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 | ian | AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test] | muzv56bm0oh | null | 423.6003 | YES | 67ea62c46640 | |
ahyx8gwhbk4 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "😎",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | G8V3CsOSbiJRXMnLTfEu | public | contract | 1,717,083,521,938 | will-strutheo-slay-all-top-20-creat | strutheo | Will @strutheo slay all top 20 creators or reach 69,420 traders first ? | null | null | null | null | null | |
xd0gzehnc7n | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ahyx8gwhbk4",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " related",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "LhOrEf43G0i3wKKYCGF2",
"label": "/strutheo/will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hiAzn7PtkOEfDFTzMz39",
"label": "/strutheo/will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be-4daa2c37bec3",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | G8V3CsOSbiJRXMnLTfEu | public | contract | 1,717,083,543,141 | will-strutheo-slay-all-top-20-creat | strutheo | Will @strutheo slay all top 20 creators or reach 69,420 traders first ? | ahyx8gwhbk4 | null | null | null | null | |
3ylo255w3eo | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "39%",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | eH8wgrSOxoLQdY4PISVW | public | contract | 1,717,083,626,876 | do-you-think-this-poll-will-reach-5 | strutheo | 📌5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Do you think this poll will reach 500 responses by EOY 2024? (39% DONE) | null | null | null | null | null | |
plm3xmg8tpq | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "llml1f5zr0a",
"label": "colorednoise",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2",
"label": "nathanwei",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " FYI I've just created a new question, with a longer timeframe, about resettling Gaza: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/adssx/will-there-be-israeli-settlements-i",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/adssx/will-there-be-israeli-settlements-i",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,083,663,558 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 252.313052 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
cwgp1fjvvk | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The banner 😬😅",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | xEOVfUvD9AeieOZJcP1w | public | contract | 1,717,083,722,229 | will-there-be-israeli-settlements-i | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Will there be Israeli settlements in Gaza on Dec 31st, 2035? | null | null | null | null | null |
gtyflzdvm9 | false | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah! I’ve got Udio premium. Some songs can be found @keltantoo on YT for proof",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | keltan | G12Ju0Fjmdaix2nJ9fNH | public | contract | 1,717,083,782,151 | will-10-people-in-the-comments-repo | keltan | Will 10 people comment saying they spent money on AI music before 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
k0rfuesqaq | false | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "u5iimixhylg",
"label": "MrVgpo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks! Closing now, be sure to check my page for 1117.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | dwax | kdldMvx040uWBVGpCgfj | public | contract | 1,717,083,817,875 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1116 | dwax | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1116 of One Piece on May 30th? | u5iimixhylg | null | null | null | null | |
xefvu94gxs8 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "G8V3CsOSbiJRXMnLTfEu",
"label": "/Mich/will-strutheo-slay-all-top-20-creat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | QIlDNkb4Gp1iIAmeZtRA | public | contract | 1,717,083,850,843 | how-many-top-creators-will-i-slay-b | strutheo | 🐲How many Top Creators will I Slay by the end of 2024? | null | null | 71.04825 | NO | 2c02d0c0bdc5 | |
xpusj584cub | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "G8V3CsOSbiJRXMnLTfEu",
"label": "/Mich/will-strutheo-slay-all-top-20-creat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | tIbWsIQPM1v6Z6hwSyxj | public | contract | 1,717,083,856,784 | will-i-slay-all-20-top-creators-by | strutheo | 🐲Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
2fb6hb1z0jd | false | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "There are diminishing returns to adding more liquidity to a market. At some point, adding extra liquidity actually makes it worse because there aren't enough traders with enough mana to move the market to the correct probability. I don't know exactly where that point is, but it's probably higher than 1M mana. The point where it's not worth spending extra money to make a prediction that's just a little bit better due to extra liquidity is probably way lower than 1M mana, though.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Plasma Ballin' | 8Up5Fete5pibl3970vK0 | public | contract | 1,717,083,954,595 | will-a-crystal-market-with-m1000000 | PlasmaBallin | Will a "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July? | null | 50 | 83.359494 | NO | null | |
ejnhpiw497l | false | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2",
"label": "ShakedKoplewitz",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Well, Israel should have pulled the settlements from Gaza but kept the army. One problem with that is that then there would be even more pressure to pull the army.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Nathan Wei | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,084,947,584 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | nathanwei | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | null | null | null | |
u6b8qeqyb3i | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " the actuals were a disastrous $26,326,462 (great movie though!).",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Predict the opening weekend for BAD BOYS 4 and INSIDE OUT 2 next:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2gamtX8Yi4VRIBB1rW7O",
"label": "/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-bad-boys-ride-or-die-bmvuybf2vi",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7SpHK89MQbomjp3Z8yti",
"label": "/Ziddletwix/which-previous-pixar-movies-will-in",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "contract-mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | OrLYZ4e5J99n0pGDJzlE | public | contract | 1,717,085,435,473 | how-much-will-furiosa-a-mad-max-sag | Ziddletwix | How much will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend? | null | null | 1,982.547854 | NO | 1735c14f6f16 | |
8umcqhcw5 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " FURIOSA can resolve YES (mattyb market)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzDnSyZIuqJ.png?alt=media&token=b5513a20-8d74-44a5-958a-f3a648d30128",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | 3bFgDna8gP4r34zMyHFd | public | contract | 1,717,085,513,628 | weekend-box-office-number-1s-q2 | Ziddletwix | Weekend Box Office Number 1’s [Q2] | null | null | 525.889274 | YES | eb2da2bffeb7 | |
c82hdxk9j55 | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How was this trading at like 40% a couple days ago?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | TvgYlvYb5HX9uBzAOXnD | public | contract | 1,717,085,515,169 | did-sam-altman-abuse-annie-altman | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman? | null | null | null | null | null |
hzg2g794p3 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4fbj8evntf",
"label": "agabara",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Thanks for pointing that out. I am sold. It is more capable by a non-trivial margin",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | oJStcCDbR8kmkkvyNiV8 | public | contract | 1,717,085,958,248 | when-will-openai-release-a-more-cap | Bayesian | When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM? | ft3qq0zr4hj | null | 1,487.321855 | YES | e5af59030d52 | |
3byog138zrs | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This wasn’t even close.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The YTD figures this year are 10,400 compared with 7,600 this time last year.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves to NO.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Simon Grayson | XPYvWhdUMLxJAihRPlG9 | public | contract | 1,717,086,041,579 | will-small-boat-crossings-be-down-y | SimonGrayson | Will small boat crossings be down year-on-year by the time the UK’s Parliament is dissolved for a general election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hguhyi8a24u | false | ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "d9phd9wu32f",
"label": "adssx",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " You’re correct about the duration and death tolls here.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "But you’re trying to say everyone in the Kashmir region is mutually intelligible to other people in the region? Because it looks like that’s not true.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "India in general seems to work well because everyone knows Hindi and or English in addition to one or more of another 20 languages, it doesn’t quite seem to be the case in this specific area.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Craig Talbert | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,086,231,925 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | CraigTalbert | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 166.736433 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
kaz0gz41z0s | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "it's still possible to do this ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | w4zfQIizCAHPN3Yv6wqh | public | contract | 1,717,086,274,581 | will-openai-patch-the-hack-that-all | shankypanky | Will OpenAI patch the "hack" that allows users to access the unreleased MacOS ChatGPT app in May? | null | 0.34 | 552.520608 | NO | null | |
enqotj91iue | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | fTwUd0HyT1xB8H9nKqDs | public | contract | 1,717,086,326,376 | will-the-first-10-trillion-be-a-com | strutheo | Will the first $10 Trillion be a company other than Apple or Microsoft? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lipqhca5o19 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | BN92tJjMrzPuRW7jcJnL | public | contract | 1,717,086,345,500 | will-the-first-10-trillion-company | strutheo | Will the first $10 Trillion company be one that started Jan 1st 2010 or later? | null | null | null | null | null | |
c3vdvew0w95 | false | 2BjZn7l2acSHgyHaFdXsStawcM12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FVjDilOUR89.png?alt=media&token=00863625-cbc3-4b32-bb12-808e8031d8c1",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "image"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2",
"label": "AmmonLam",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " crossed on the 28th",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac Carruthers | IcjfxMqnuoRCf9wcXTP1 | public | contract | 1,717,086,703,374 | will-these-indexes-hit-this-high-pr | IsaacCarruthers | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcXXLFBQ4W22BzdB2pjzWmPe8QTc5dbbJiQblZf_gXrgLw=s96-c | Will these Indexes hit this high price 📈 before low price 📉 | null | null | 688.585203 | NO | 36914b554b22 |
as0ctibsxil | false | EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "m9fd0pntkeh",
"label": "OliverHabryka",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " link?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonas Vollmer | xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se | public | contract | 1,717,086,759,743 | by-the-end-of-2023-will-substantial | JonasVollmer | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c | By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up? | 5ckxe709mw | 0 | 14,170.296108 | NO | null |
heotjckmrb | false | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8umcqhcw5",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " resolving YES as mod, I checked the source",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JAAM | 3bFgDna8gP4r34zMyHFd | public | contract | 1,717,086,813,834 | weekend-box-office-number-1s-q2 | egroj | Weekend Box Office Number 1’s [Q2] | 8umcqhcw5 | null | null | null | null | |
4ozael3jmch | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": null,
"type": "bold"
}
],
"text": "🏀 Get Ready to BALL BIG! 🏀",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As we dive into the thrilling climax of the 2024 NBA season, the heat is on! Who's your pick to lift the trophy this year? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Whether you're backing the reigning champs, a dark horse, or a rising star, now is the time to lock in your predictions. With high stakes, intense rivalries, and game-changing moments, the NBA Finals promise unparalleled excitement. Don't miss out—place your bets and ride the wave of adrenaline all the way to the championship! ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Who will be crowned the 2024 NBA Champion? Make your call now and get in on the action! 🏆🔥 🏀 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Predictor 🔥 | 0GIBkffKG2YGu9XzCP65 | public | contract | 1,717,086,887,651 | which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals-fd3163334bf5 | Predictor | Which team will win the NBA Finals 2024? | null | null | 52,623.529828 | YES | 888d844a79ea | |
u1d4osv5snn | false | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why does feed show me this as “related market”",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Shelvacu/how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3",
"start": null,
"title": null,
"tweetId": null,
"url": null
},
"content": null,
"type": "iframe"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ClubmasterTransparent | 4a4wZyG8OwmFyXSWMRZL | public | contract | 1,717,087,016,364 | manifold-leagues-megamarket-season-44e1da24b291 | ClubmasterTransparent | Manifold Leagues Megamarket: Season 13 (May) | null | null | null | null | null | |
npze1z6gwl7 | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4ozael3jmch",
"label": "Predictor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " lol",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ben Shindel | 0GIBkffKG2YGu9XzCP65 | public | contract | 1,717,087,342,636 | which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals-fd3163334bf5 | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Which team will win the NBA Finals 2024? | 4ozael3jmch | null | 42,933.671843 | YES | 5e5ac7ca8679 |
899uzcegzqc | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | xIrSMjaccHN4kFiUF8eZ | public | contract | 1,717,087,429,011 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-9e9de7bb0a55 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Lex Luthor? | null | null | null | null | null | |
mto0vwnief | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | EW6jnWOvvYs7PE2V050z | public | contract | 1,717,087,435,390 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-9a8636956863 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Dr Eggman / Robotnik? | null | null | null | null | null | |
xjkj872q5n | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | aiP2O9JBpGe878W06BkW | public | contract | 1,717,087,440,000 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-4951c3118178 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Frank Underwood? | null | null | null | null | null | |
oxk7c0k3ks | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hguhyi8a24u",
"label": "CraigTalbert",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " People have various mother tongues, but English and Hindi–Urdu serve as lingua franca understood by the vast majority of the population in the region.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG | public | contract | 1,717,087,449,360 | -what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035? | 4bzlpaf4gf | null | 252.313052 | YES | xfyl9e0des |
5d8mpsgbgu | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | zxX4gkc9jFDfMZn9LLqC | public | contract | 1,717,087,468,886 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-3b08980b7bbb | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Avon Barksdale? | null | null | null | null | null | |
mdu5vtqg44 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | ymuvSkpR31B1SSO8a9ni | public | contract | 1,717,087,472,726 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-3573b20a0406 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Scar (Lion King) ? | null | null | null | null | null | |
73bh675dkye | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | quMUocH3384OvzgHiS8U | public | contract | 1,717,087,479,194 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-ed63de0367f7 | strutheo | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Michael Jackson? | null | null | null | null | null | |
90osftfozo7 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | 3rcAKQr2545pVacv55Bz | public | contract | 1,717,087,541,571 | are-you-in-favor-of-this-tax-fat-ta | strutheo | Are you in Favor of this Tax: Fat Tax? | null | null | null | null | null | |
hcuo93vnnmu | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | AA6K5I2fWB33Cm2Fhjhk | public | contract | 1,717,087,605,097 | are-you-in-favor-of-this-tax-repeat | strutheo | Are you in Favor of this Tax: Repeater tax (NBA)? | null | null | null | null | null | |
f6pkroexelw | false | Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2",
"label": "AndrewG",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " +1 on resolve criteria, please, especially given that half the reason we're in this mess at all is that OpenAI straight-up lied about fulfilling their promise about Superalignment: ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://thezvi.substack.com/p/openai-fallout",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://thezvi.substack.com/p/openai-fallout",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Lorxus PhD 🦊 | f422ZIhxUC0QqQBiaKMQ | public | contract | 1,717,087,834,248 | will-openai-still-be-doing-superali | Lorxus | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbebFJR8Ey87j0aMvnyCxY8sMICPXqeiMqYL8SqsQ=s96-c | Will OpenAI still be doing Superalignment in June 2024? | 9e6zvrbqw2e | 0.49 | 2,508.055508 | NO | null |
i212tk2ampo | false | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Eli Lilly is on the list, under \"Titans\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Michael | C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw | public | contract | 1,717,087,891,727 | what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 | burkh4rt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024? | null | null | 114.685285 | YES | 46c5d201097d |
gu0cwvo5jg | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "bump!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | En73gBPhyWGSikueE5o0 | public | contract | 1,717,088,058,370 | will-bitcoin-be-above-6969696-at-th-c1c45e056b01 | strutheo | Will bitcoin be above $69696.96 at the end of May? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ynduk1fiewl | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "My wife gets in an argument with the collinses about maternity leave",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Ray | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,717,088,177,741 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | JonathanRay | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | null | null | 918.045833 | YES | b9be7b7e6aad | |
kaydjeo0kqf | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is this a tax on fat people or a tax on fatty food? Either way, I'm against it.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | 3rcAKQr2545pVacv55Bz | public | contract | 1,717,088,299,820 | are-you-in-favor-of-this-tax-fat-ta | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Are you in Favor of this Tax: Fat Tax? | null | null | null | null | null |
e7j0dnt6mtw | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "houston you got this 🙏 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | RCiDzgPymY9mp2OS05LV | public | contract | 1,717,088,396,689 | will-nvidia-close-above-1138-on-may | Bayesian | Will Nvidia close above $1138 on May 31st? | null | null | null | null | null | |
w6h47ftkq9d | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "should this kind of market be unranked and unsubsidized since it's just predicting a poll of manifold users? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonathan Ray | yk2Oy6AK8j4n0Bh7mcfP | public | contract | 1,717,088,422,286 | which-of-the-following-is-true-of-e | JonathanRay | Which of the following is true of Elon Musk? | null | null | 29,763.889258 | YES | 37f0747697e3 | |
kgjxd9b8vsr | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "npze1z6gwl7",
"label": "benshindel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " There will absolutely be \"lot's of layups\"",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Predictor 🔥 | 0GIBkffKG2YGu9XzCP65 | public | contract | 1,717,088,425,955 | which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals-fd3163334bf5 | Predictor | Which team will win the NBA Finals 2024? | 4ozael3jmch | null | 52,623.529828 | YES | 888d844a79ea | |
4zdxc8ue80q | false | 8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "zgdsukxzf1",
"label": "Noit",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Okay that makes sense, I found it odd that the simulation at: HTTP s://manifold-uk-election-2024.netlify.app/ had so many Others down to win",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "And nvm me on the conservative not running, looks like the incumbent will be running again, odd there's no official announcement about it though",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | GooGhoul | Dg65t0iMagw37ACIBARy | public | contract | 1,717,088,907,296 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-2aeaed32e06f | GooGhoul | UK General Election: Which party will win in Boston and Skegness? | 5wft6b54mwj | null | null | null | null | |
40d61thkp03 | false | QQInWv7nHJgbmN67E7QlHfQDkO42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "uc3wbwkrc7f",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Yes, correct",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Dave K | 7XpKDpeKw1paYi1IGR3Y | public | contract | 1,717,089,342,262 | what-will-the-low-end-of-my-pdoom-b | DaveK | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2R6SvkbqD9GkJI_SN-kCZntRToJnhbIGK4scrO=s96-c | What will the low end of my p(doom) be after LessOnline + Manifest ? | 15su2bi1lxf | null | null | null | null |
rq33pnmf1k | false | 9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think AGI makes astronauts almost redundant for space exploration. We will only send people into space for four reasons: 1) exploration of human psychology in zero gravity 2) entertainment 3) tourism 4) civilizational backup in case of a mass extinction event. None of this speaks in favor of 1000 people spending more than a year in space before 2050.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jan | Yy3yScfu9VK2zaQtfsmE | public | contract | 1,717,089,533,382 | will-over-1000-people-live-permanen | Jan53274 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c | Will over 1000 people live permanently outside Earth's atmosphere by 2050? | null | 0.353658 | 289.467081 | NO | null |
mtyc9c2536 | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2024/05/28/mexico-seeks-to-join-icj-genocide-case-against-israel/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2024/05/28/mexico-seeks-to-join-icj-genocide-case-against-israel/",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Will Mexico recognize Palestine if they decide to intervene in the case? (Otherwise they would intervene in defense of a state that they don't recognize...)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Antoine Dusséaux | 2yFjVaOYgeEwjWvmVbCK | public | contract | 1,717,089,611,122 | will-as-many-or-more-countries-reco | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Will as many or more countries recognize Palestine than Israel by 2027? | null | 0.195471 | 94.465832 | NO | null |
fm7e9ymcxyi | false | 7ZUzSoFRd0SABh2p63Gp2Gcnr1u1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ab9jkfk4rv",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I would love any advice you have to offer! Thank you!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Michael Lo | D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO | public | contract | 1,717,089,620,970 | will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab | lomichael | Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months? | ab9jkfk4rv | null | null | null | null | |
ptp2vnrub7 | false | lg0za1E37yR4kGP5rcsc5sGUQW73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ynp5dd3p50h",
"label": "TimothyJohnson5c16",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I don't know why it spiked, but the Manifold market hasn't done the same ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Looking at ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://electionbettingodds.com/",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://electionbettingodds.com/",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " it seems like Predictit doesn't have this effect Polymarket, Betfair, and Smarkets do.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": "Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...",
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": false,
"id": "0b5f625f-6ad9-44b1-a602-368de7b7514d",
"image": "http://maximwebsite.tripod.com/pngthumb2024.png",
"inputKey": "comment xA5k0OoRuGyVgZ7TrGJ1comment e4sxkc9lb7f",
"language": null,
"level": null,
"src": null,
"start": null,
"title": "Election Betting Odds",
"tweetId": null,
"url": "https://electionbettingodds.com/"
},
"content": null,
"type": "linkPreview"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jeff Kaufman | xA5k0OoRuGyVgZ7TrGJ1 | public | contract | 1,717,089,813,866 | trump-vs-biden-odds-will-republican | JeffKaufman | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Od8vuN4D1xT20AJN03oeG7Gd36qcbp8ZXuiLRxA=s96-c | Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on June 15th? | e4sxkc9lb7f | null | null | null | null |
r2f10jtmu5 | false | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Early polling results have ANC at 43% (",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjll8nr6962o",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "BBC",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ").",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | cshunter | Ruzlct60WpVvKknEgrzb | public | contract | 1,717,089,848,480 | will-the-anc-receive-less-than-50-o | cash | Will the ANC receive less than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
jdbcn1ji6kf | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "trading in the TIME market was a loss leader, bailed out by my trades in the TIME time market ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ziddletwix | Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2 | public | contract | 1,717,090,050,420 | will-the-time-100-most-influential | Ziddletwix | Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised? | lia8m460ac | 0.796463 | 10,253.877548 | YES | null | |
2zqjycr69r3 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm tempted to not count clear coinflips even if they are ranked. I don't think they should be ranked if they are used to coinflip. stocks / sports games being the most obvious",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | GEWijCSPAVtCHoGkfk0L | public | contract | 1,717,090,129,417 | will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-x-on | Bayesian | Will anyone profit by at least X on a single market in 2024? | null | null | 291.53582 | YES | ab6ec42957d4 | |
92c02bowuoe | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "it's not really the spirit with which I made the market, and all that. not sure though. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | GEWijCSPAVtCHoGkfk0L | public | contract | 1,717,090,182,433 | will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-x-on | Bayesian | Will anyone profit by at least X on a single market in 2024? | 2zqjycr69r3 | null | 120 | YES | f41cdfd7a3fc | |
ft2thqfldx | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "FTS was installed today. 6 days before earliest launch.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Was installed 6 and 9 days before launch for IFT3, 2 respectively.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Added a few more days after for margin.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | JRP | 6RJffBxB1hrIdQJI057e | public | contract | 1,717,090,520,917 | how-many-days-after-into-may-will-s | parhizj | How many days into May will Starship flight 4 will happen? | null | null | 117.129382 | YES | 3b5054d39a7b | |
9c0h3oe3pju | false | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "51e6c9fxyq7",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think if you try to figure out what's in common with all the things you want to call religion in various societies (and in particular which bits are sociologically relevant), you'll end up saying something like that it's groups of people that congregate for rituals that structure people's lives, have norms, and share ethical and cosmological (and maybe eschatological) beliefs (which are expressed via the norms and rituals). It's true that religion normally involves supernaturalism, but I'd chalk that up to ethical and cosmological beliefs normally involving the supernatural. I wouldn't say most religions have tons of hierarchical structure, and IMO the rationalists have a decent amount of organizational structure. Anyway I think the Bay Area rationality community (or at least some nearby set of people that doesn't have a great name) meets these criteria and is usefully analyzed as a religion: we have rituals explicitly modelled after religious rituals, we have these distinctive ethical, cosmological, and eschatological beliefs in the water, it's an important part of people's identities, etc. Admittedly it's a religion in formation and still under flux, but IDK I think it plays a similar role in people's lives as \"real religions\" do.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel Filan | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,717,090,560,520 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | DanielFilan | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | s6d2cqoebsa | null | 217.46688 | NO | f6e62954da91 | |
i1e4r9dhmne | false | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "51e6c9fxyq7",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I should also say that the definition of religion is contested, and the Bay rationality community is for sure going to be an edge case. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definition_of_religion",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definition_of_religion",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel Filan | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,717,090,643,480 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | DanielFilan | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | s6d2cqoebsa | null | 217.46688 | NO | f6e62954da91 | |
5v8hchtyc28 | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " Rules lawyers, start your engines!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Former Conservative Bolton North East MP Mark Logan has defected to Labour. He will not be standing again. However his ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://x.com/Mark_Logan_MP/status/1796223919046766609",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "resignation / defection letter is dated yesterday",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": ", when he was still an MP. And he has been accepted by Labour. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This only becomes relevant if there is one more defection in the rest of the year, as that will mean we have an open question on whether or not to resolve 4-5 YES. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | lf55iLdGhghaPAp7m1eI | public | contract | 1,717,090,668,905 | how-many-mps-will-defect-to-another | Noit | How many MPs will defect to another party in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
u9mehkhciji | false | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "How much is significant?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Garrett Baker | 4Pmjnk2MT301kTCTHjoL | public | contract | 1,717,090,850,648 | 6-an-alternative-to-the-transformer | GarrettBaker | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 6) An alternative to the transformer architecture will see meaningful adoption. | null | 0.584136 | 405.674366 | NO | null |
f4r77uafju4 | false | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4zdxc8ue80q",
"label": "GooGhoul",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " They’ve got another week or so to get the final contestants in, so things could be in flux until then. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Noit | Dg65t0iMagw37ACIBARy | public | contract | 1,717,090,935,511 | uk-general-election-which-party-wil-2aeaed32e06f | Noit | UK General Election: Which party will win in Boston and Skegness? | 5wft6b54mwj | null | null | null | null | |
rmkevau37s | false | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3",
"label": "SemioticRivalry",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " just making sure you bet based on the right YES/NO (since it's a little counterintuitive before I added the yes/no to the answer)",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "hardBreak"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Edit: Updating to be more intuitive (shouldn't impact your answers)",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Stop Punting | RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH | public | contract | 1,717,092,374,695 | manifold-american-english-pronuncia | StopPunting | Manifold - (American) English Pronunciation Guide | null | null | null | null | null | |
r7cpge4jz8 | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "2rbfnmcy2vs",
"label": "ian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I think I should wait for the new system to get settled in and at least a few dozen real money markets to resolve.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | o8TvlRRQyQtgeCpOdtn5 | public | contract | 1,717,092,580,295 | if-manifold-begins-allowing-realmon | IsaacKing | If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve? | 2rbfnmcy2vs | null | null | null | null | |
7s6btg0fmkh | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Wait what, did the order change",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH | public | contract | 1,717,092,632,538 | manifold-american-english-pronuncia | Bayesian | Manifold - (American) English Pronunciation Guide | null | null | 121.309336 | NO | b9qqsmck9w | |
o7x8eorhbve | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Yeah it doesn't have to do anything past drawing a single pentagon.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC | public | contract | 1,717,092,650,953 | will-any-image-model-be-able-to-dra | IsaacKing | Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025? | joriwflu4n | null | null | null | null | |
h3xzltnnv5 | false | OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9kqsgg85zvs",
"label": "ChrisThomas",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " I'd be inclined to favour English just because authoritarian countries have a strong tendency to print the kind of history they want people to believe ...",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bubbles | aoFVJLgtMkMsc3HHVIwD | public | contract | 1,717,092,654,584 | what-news-stories-of-the-2020s-will | Lorelai | What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s? | y2biynvoj0g | null | 279.196376 | YES | 69317bbbbd8f | |
l6uxcfrdbme | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "oh seems like you swapped them. I approve.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH | public | contract | 1,717,092,684,787 | manifold-american-english-pronuncia | Bayesian | Manifold - (American) English Pronunciation Guide | 7s6btg0fmkh | null | 121.309336 | NO | b9qqsmck9w | |
m4vh9d20y4b | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "as0ctibsxil",
"label": "JonasVollmer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400",
"href": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GJiPtvWd0EpNyujXPo15R1Y-KlOMDPbd/view",
"target": "_blank"
},
"type": "link"
}
],
"text": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GJiPtvWd0EpNyujXPo15R1Y-KlOMDPbd/view",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se | public | contract | 1,717,092,786,406 | by-the-end-of-2023-will-substantial | IsaacKing | By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up? | 5ckxe709mw | 0 | 0 | YES | null | |
3wjcvg8623p | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "just got off an info call for the program, and figured out that I'm a \"Primary\" (somehow missed that originally), rather than an \"Alternate\". Working hard to get everything else cleared though time runs short, but it looks like it's a proper offer and I've accepted it. Resolving both of those YES.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | vZiCpQOF0A3JEM5DfgaM | public | contract | 1,717,092,832,677 | will-i-work-in-antarctica-this-year | Stralor | Will I work in Antarctica this year? Which parts of the process will happen? | null | null | 175.723132 | YES | 45a0ee9f0e5b |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.