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"text": " People I know in Morocco and the UAE don't hate Israel (at least before Oct 7), but they don't love it either for sure. Still, you make an excellent point with Iran and its proxies that it's not all about oppression.",
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"text": "To break that and achieve peace you'd need to change these incentives so that Palestinians have more to lose than gain by using violence. It's the carrot and the stick: either you punish them a lot (but it can backfire as we're seeing now, unless you go even harsher) or you reward their non-violence (diplomatic recognition, economic cooperation, cash transfers, etc.). But, as of today, the Israeli government categorically refuses to agree to a mere \"pathway to a future Palestinian state\" even in exchange of normalization with Saudi Arabia, the strongest Arab country and Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques: ",
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"text": " re incentives, it's worse than that - Israeli incentives are to refuse to pull out any settlements because the last time they did that (in Gaza), Hamas took over the strip and spent the next two decades attacking Israel (and Israel did spend a decade or so there trying to reach a negotiatd peace, getting the second intifada instead). So if you're in the Israeli anti-settlement camp you're kinda stuck with \"yes it won't bring peace and may actually make terrorism worse but we should do it anyway\", which isn't a great vote winner.",
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"text": " The conclusion of the 2005 Israeli disengagement from Gaza is that withdrawing to the 1967 borders is not enough for Palestinians to shift the balance of incentives toward nonviolence. So if Israel decides to use the \"carrot\", then Israel should give away more (diplomatic recognition? partial lifting of the embargo? economic cooperation? etc.). As you noted, it's politically inaudible for the Israeli public. So the most likely part is more violence rather than less.",
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