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q9526l19cd
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "wait lol market creator you're the one moving this around. I'm confused. Does it not resolve YES?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
ylAAHM4jLDG9hizUhBHM
public
contract
1,717,103,341,846
will-elon-musk-rise-to-richest-pers
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Elon Musk rise to richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires?
5xnysyq5rq2
0.095736
278.187115
YES
null
wmycyfoc68j
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuZ4Zs6EQDW.png?alt=media&token=6c347625-0384-4e31-8475-499c635fb810", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,717,103,381,774
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
null
null
null
null
null
drkhkwq9dnp
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-trial-verdict-jury/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "CBS", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ": 2024-05-30T17:07:14-0400 \"The jury in former President ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-trial-verdict-jury-deliberations-judge-instructions/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Donald Trump's \"hush money\" trial", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " in New York has found him guilty on all counts\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S
public
contract
1,717,103,391,079
how-soon-after-trump-is-convicted-o
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
How soon after Trump is convicted of a felony will his Wikipedia article be updated?
null
null
null
null
null
v2cxggxya5
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
76LbHWetZ0pDRgEfRAJX
public
contract
1,717,103,430,389
will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-at-le
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Trump be found guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial?
null
0.769174
527.445711
YES
null
ka0pnlhdnl
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "label": "ManifoldPolitics", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves to None of the12", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
cfkXjZd7kEzbKVbrnUVp
public
contract
1,717,103,443,278
which-of-trumps-12-jurors-will-leav
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which of Trump's 12 Jurors will leave the Jury next?
null
null
921.03006
YES
74d0e72f7b2b
1gs8fwhyo6wj
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
5dNjKvZ2LOHkOoLZ7xta
public
contract
1,717,103,470,711
will-trumps-new-york-hush-money-tri
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Trump's New York Hush Money trial be complete by the end of Juneteenth?
null
0.927504
772.694187
YES
null
izy51o7r7xd
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "GPpWQpjHAgPvW3BlsKZf8qhv4yH3", "label": "jonmast", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
hHEOhBwM52sZM1SsNoaD
public
contract
1,717,103,495,855
will-trump-be-convicted-of-at-least
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Trump be convicted of at least one of the NY charges?
null
0.75497
1,688.11571
YES
null
g5e1escr4
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "drkhkwq9dnp", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Donald_Trump&diff=prev&oldid=1226472210", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Wikipedia edited at 2024-05-30T21:07:41Z to add \"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "and convicted felon\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S
public
contract
1,717,103,515,372
how-soon-after-trump-is-convicted-o
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
How soon after Trump is convicted of a felony will his Wikipedia article be updated?
drkhkwq9dnp
null
null
null
null
l3mh8v41rc8
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lolllllll", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bubbles
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,717,103,538,663
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
null
null
88.972285
YES
ec2b97d8638a
otcxta9gdp
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wbLTrTEe8tfWBGnXDhIRzyddw0n2", "label": "JamesOxendine", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves to Stormy daniels hush money. the verdict was just read ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/may/30/trump-hush-money-trial-verdict", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/may/30/trump-hush-money-trial-verdict", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
fueYen46wVWcrihfvBeU
public
contract
1,717,103,563,972
which-trump-case-will-conclude-firs
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which Trump case will conclude first?
null
null
669.317804
YES
9cf50d1b8201
6z1vjvptncx
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g5e1escr4", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/may-30-trump-trial-jury-deliberations-day-2", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Fox", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "datetime=\"Thu May 30 2024 17:10:34 GMT-0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Trump found guilty on all counts\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S
public
contract
1,717,103,587,088
how-soon-after-trump-is-convicted-o
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
How soon after Trump is convicted of a felony will his Wikipedia article be updated?
drkhkwq9dnp
null
null
null
null
3hjnhzx9fyo
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4wbgh5y48vm", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I have it in the description but I will change it to require in the title", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew
jtZoCx0aV7i5RSEyiwe8
public
contract
1,717,103,588,873
will-gta-6-take-up-more-than-200gb
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will GTA 6 take up more than 200gb of space on PC.
x688rtr9rz
null
null
null
null
0d2bde75r0u
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
kEDcN8lI52bfvngE1f4W
public
contract
1,717,103,632,814
will-the-ongoing-hush-money-trial-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the ongoing hush money trial involving Trump in NYC conclude with a mistrial?
null
0.299074
27.942295
NO
null
0lsaqqlmxfa
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " mind resolving this YES? ammon's profile: \" I’m traveling until Aug 1st, if any mod see a market that needs resolving I appreciate you take over and resolve it for me. Thanks.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
aG6lzVzFFbQC4XarDvRI
public
contract
1,717,103,651,074
will-barack-obama-make-8-or-more-tw-ae753d7b5c57
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Barack Obama make 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in May 2024?
4s2qihhrvdw
0.256248
8,004.637727
YES
null
f64fxhdergv
false
xPEZQYvILhM1WCuzGJUj7c27Ebi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolving to NO on the basis that no official evidence or mainstream media report supports the claim that the photo was heavily forged. The general consensus seems to be that the edits were minor. I'm using ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240402011513/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where_is_Kate%3F#Mother's_Day_photograph", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240402011513/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where_is_Kate%3F#Mother's_Day_photograph", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " as a source of facts.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
SxP
Y2l6IsS8Qnl7PMQy8zSj
public
contract
1,717,103,685,836
was-kate-middletons-mothers-day-pho
SxP
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZzFvzcXXicfZ8fLWQCacFQX4Yl_Cc6OO3ZJWVqPw=s96-c
Was Kate Middleton's Mother's Day photo heavily forged and not just lightly edited as claimed by the official story?
null
null
null
null
null
282h1raccua
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6z1vjvptncx", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yahoo datetime=\"2024-05-30T21:10:48.000Z", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"The former president has been convicted of all 34 counts of falsifying business records.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S
public
contract
1,717,103,689,645
how-soon-after-trump-is-convicted-o
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
How soon after Trump is convicted of a felony will his Wikipedia article be updated?
drkhkwq9dnp
null
null
null
null
hm1gg7mb28j
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
kEDcN8lI52bfvngE1f4W
public
contract
1,717,103,695,139
will-the-ongoing-hush-money-trial-i
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the ongoing hush money trial involving Trump in NYC conclude with a mistrial?
null
0.299074
130.019583
NO
null
c27m3lq9t
false
DOrTcRXwJoMJm2RuntryCsNzyv83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8n3e9j77454", "label": "Daniel_MC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Does he have to overturn all of his convictions, or is overturning some of the counts enough?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nate Watson
0r7CYWde6DojE7zo3Fwe
public
contract
1,717,103,708,911
if-trump-is-convicted-in-the-hush-m
NateWatson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtesbiKSCuKsnAUXlxzu_Lgq-u7XCAW_Cg_Gj5YvhSME=s96-c
If trump is convicted in the Hush Money case, will he successfully appeal?
4wmewj3dx8
null
null
null
null
pwx3actvx9n
false
IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pd33ilqswkr", "label": "TiredCliche", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I get that but I'm trying to make this market as accessible as possible. I want ppl to be able to easily verify the market res. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew
jtZoCx0aV7i5RSEyiwe8
public
contract
1,717,103,731,916
will-gta-6-take-up-more-than-200gb
AndrewCrosse
https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261
Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.
x688rtr9rz
null
null
null
null
t3akowa57n
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "OMZMhyVeTkOXOMulyOhEAXDJABg2", "label": "EdVanDorn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
d2JJvGrlxolRJMbihZCR
public
contract
1,717,103,962,433
will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-a-e5ef5bff647d
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before the 2024 election?
null
0.853655
2,194.217472
YES
null
18xsq2ptj1h
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "282h1raccua", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " So CBS is the earliest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2024-05-30T17:07:14-0400", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "and Wikipedia was edited 41-14 = 27 seconds later:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Donald_Trump&diff=prev&oldid=1226472210", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "2024-05-30T21:07:41Z", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any disputes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
AFSpTupCC7w45CQeiz7S
public
contract
1,717,104,087,161
how-soon-after-trump-is-convicted-o
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
How soon after Trump is convicted of a felony will his Wikipedia article be updated?
drkhkwq9dnp
null
null
null
null
k9nq47m1sr
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2", "label": "JamesF", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Trump has been convicted!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
Z4G9pSVWghw4OuWdUIhp
public
contract
1,717,104,271,987
will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-d3be9e4ab1a5
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire before Trump is convicted
null
0.186544
2,543.42823
NO
null
sn2ktkht9x
false
owtvuJTMkNduy7U4Lwnh7iyTCFv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n0opug7487", "label": "FoxKHTML", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " is this a Bovadeese nuts bait", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Connor
1uOFS8AhZxCHKdmZrwD9
public
contract
1,717,104,348,920
acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi
ConnorTabarrok
https://firebasestorage.…659-333246855be9
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]
n0opug7487
null
null
null
null
njptc43imwg
false
DsMiQTKKm3diNnb8m3rVoIc0HC72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4hcg6e5k68e", "label": "Predictor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yes, 92% seems about right", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gabe Garboden
DmHNc6MvEibyaGNw3YoP
public
contract
1,717,104,469,655
will-i-take-delivery-of-a-cybertruc
GabeGarboden
https://firebasestorage.…72b-d795f8c831cc
Will I take delivery of a Cybertruck before June 1st 2024
h7kj3s9dk9s
null
null
null
null
rqi145o9sm
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Option 3: these are identical, much like pen and pin. (Many English dialects make no distinctions between these.)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,104,530,865
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
131.644882
NO
gzkz59j9tb
t4qvgnvmta
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Neither of those is a good pronunciation guide, as they imply two syllables, but the word is nearly universally pronounced with one syllable.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Josh
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,104,601,371
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
131.644882
NO
gzkz59j9tb
igbua1q492a
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This will resolve based on the 538 listed value for June 30", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
N3cv6F0oX6r8wTQQLWd0
public
contract
1,717,104,618,506
what-will-the-fivethirtyeight-polli
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
What will the FiveThirtyEight polling average be one month after the conclusion of Trump's Manhattan criminal trial?
null
null
18.329878
YES
8f5a93071a64
mne5og7p4w
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ab9jkfk4rv", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Ooh I should try this technique!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO
public
contract
1,717,104,681,038
will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months?
ab9jkfk4rv
null
null
null
null
4bhj1cn96p3
false
jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2okw97idjw9", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I am sincerely sorry. As per the tweet I quoted, journalists on the scene reported that the judge announced he'd be dismissing the jury for the day, which means no verdict. Apparently the jury then told the judge they'd reached a verdict.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I had no particular need to resolve the market as quickly as I did, but I did so on the basis of what would normally be a very reliable indicator that it was done for the day.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Hyperlincoln
upzd89pHEFqyJ9Lg6oHI
public
contract
1,717,104,738,377
for-how-many-days-will-the-jury-del
Hyperlincoln
https://firebasestorage.…f8f-d22d2ae6d687
For how many days will the jury deliberate in People v. Donald Trump (the New York criminal case)?
z0zxwa75hp
null
469.465513
NO
1u2jpqu8vm
79rauhrn2ot
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The other market had one item resolved to NO that has been fixed to YES. So this should actually be 17.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
MBBUy7umcoKGN4f2Gp8x
public
contract
1,717,104,864,440
how-many-of-the-time-100-influentia
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
How many of the TIME 100 Influential Companies of 2024 will Manifold guess?
null
0.351217
162.647381
NO
null
2orsiczr6nv
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A felony conviction in another state makes a person ineligible to vote in Florida only if the conviction would make the person ineligible to vote in the state where the person was convicted.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To qualify for voter registration in New York State, you must:", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "… ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "not be in prison for a felony conviction;", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A felony conviction in Florida for murder or a sexual offense makes a person ineligible to vote in Florida unless and until the person’s right to vote is restored by the ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.fcor.state.fl.us/restoration.shtml", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "State Clemency Board", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For any other felony conviction in Florida, a person is eligible to register and vote if the person has completed all terms of his or her sentence.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So he would have to be in prison in November to be ineligible to vote?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
mNccptRmfGGl9UZtl2wk
public
contract
1,717,104,925,000
will-donald-trump-be-eligible-to-vo
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Will Donald Trump be eligible to vote in the 2024 election?
null
50
94.465832
YES
null
54x3ojl1jyg
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Is there a way for me to fix this myself? Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see how.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
MBBUy7umcoKGN4f2Gp8x
public
contract
1,717,104,982,206
how-many-of-the-time-100-influentia
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
How many of the TIME 100 Influential Companies of 2024 will Manifold guess?
79rauhrn2ot
0.351217
162.647381
NO
null
tthhnq15au
false
5UTTQmwtYJgMjFYDrWlGyGSfxgG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This resolution seems premature, as there are still 2 months left and two or thee more unresolved indictments.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
River Bellamy
JAsLFDDd0IX4J19rFy3D
public
contract
1,717,105,015,905
will-trump-be-convicted-with-a-felo
RiverBellamy
https://firebasestorage.…b3d-f8fd9d611e71
Will Trump be convicted with a felony or misdemeanor by August 1, 2024?
null
null
100.332698
YES
4437ca7e593d
vammb4a8a9
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "54x3ojl1jyg", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Unresolved!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
MBBUy7umcoKGN4f2Gp8x
public
contract
1,717,105,032,477
how-many-of-the-time-100-influentia
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
How many of the TIME 100 Influential Companies of 2024 will Manifold guess?
79rauhrn2ot
null
null
null
null
zhas5klssv
false
fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "CONVICTED! He's eligible for up to 4 years in prison and Merchan is tough on white collar crime. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zac Parker
1alNazfiL0X88a60FODl
public
contract
1,717,105,034,644
will-trump-have-a-cell-mate-before
ZacParker
https://firebasestorage.…4d0-dbaec72eff5e
Will Trump have a cell mate before he has a running mate?
null
null
null
null
null
gn79ipahmij
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can't believe I missed it!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,717,105,163,381
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
null
null
19,545.507444
NO
b0117080de6b
h874lvz94zh
false
OMOOYjINzrPde7dm1Tr1H3vmC752
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1j94smylghf", "label": "chaos", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " oh man, came here for this discussion. Zootopia is copaganda and seems pretty RW to me but open to having this view challenged", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bubbles
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,105,234,146
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Lorelai
https://firebasestorage.…bd3-9614af348f98
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
3a0eiqufwbg
null
205.716464
YES
8a4b75c9bd8b
yfmbbuumdin
false
n1ZFS428CKRTVF5xiAJJHsfGfss2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pawjp3bsd2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Called it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Najawin
cfkXjZd7kEzbKVbrnUVp
public
contract
1,717,105,287,636
which-of-trumps-12-jurors-will-leav
Najawin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIeT2AGuhQ3RJ_aXRU0h-DIVlDI88KHt7zuAy_NJ6l5=s96-c
Which of Trump's 12 Jurors will leave the Jury next?
f9pm2r6ved
null
54.355869
YES
74d0e72f7b2b
2expt32ywbe
false
ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wmycyfoc68j", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " *", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "convicted", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " felon.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zane
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,717,105,411,197
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
ZaneMiller
https://firebasestorage.…cd7-65f87738b782
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
wmycyfoc68j
null
null
null
null
18avijxiamp
false
WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gn79ipahmij", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " People were rather late to NO on mistrial, I decided to leave some room for others.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zvi Mowshowitz
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,717,105,480,931
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
ZviMowshowitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
gn79ipahmij
null
16,896.435433
NO
042c402d8aef
7m0sh7iyrlf
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "oof, me and mine def just say \"crahn\", one syllable ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "maybe", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " with a dipthong", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,105,603,347
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
136.828259
NO
9jjqmvycj
qkutsel7iq
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "another that needs a third! \"puh-kahn\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,105,633,864
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
136.828259
NO
9jjqmvycj
37355sa7l9t
false
j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r9pl7ejyu8", "label": "aashiq", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " “if it instead draws multiple hexagons that suggests to me that indeed it doesn't exactly know what a pentagon is.”", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wouldn’t an equally valid interpretation be that it knows what a pentagon is, doesn’t know what a pentagon tiling is, but does know about hexagonal tilings? Hexagonal tilings are much more common than pentagonal ones. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jim Hays
HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC
public
contract
1,717,105,799,692
will-any-image-model-be-able-to-dra
JimHays
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c
Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?
joriwflu4n
0.651352
1,671.595568
NO
null
qamvjy84dx
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fm7e9ymcxyi", "label": "lomichael", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I would recommend:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- Polish up any projects you have now that are semi-presentable. There's no need for projects to be technically impressive or even particularly good code - as long as you can talk about it in an interview, it helps. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- You can probably make some presentable open-source contributions in just a couple days if you pick straightforward, simple issues. These still look impressive, particularly for widely known repositories like PyTorch. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- I would start applying now to non-preferred companies. The best way to get practice interviewing is to actually interview, and you don't want your interviews at your top picks to be your first, especially if you're not confident in your interview skills. (There's also less pressure interviewing for a job you aren't particularly sold on, which can be helpful for conquering nerves). ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- With no previous experience, your hit rate is probably going to be pretty low (possibly <2%). Apply ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "prolifically", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " and try A/B testing different resumes to optimize them. Don't get discouraged if you aren't immediately successful - in the end, you just need one interview to go well, and if your hit rate is low enough, a stretch of bad luck can make things seem much more hopeless than they actually are. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- ML jobs are difficult (although not impossible) to get with just a Bachelor's. If you want to break into the field, the easiest option may be to take a SWE job that's ML adjacent and try to move within the company into a more ML-focused role. Some startups also tend to be more open to non-traditional backgrounds for ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- Once you have enough projects to fill space on your resume, I would focus on depth instead of breadth. In my opinion, a couple great projects (especially if they're relevant to skills wanted in specific roles) is better than implementing 20 different algorithms. I would select projects by going through many postings and identifying what skills employers seem to be most interested in.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- If you have any interest in CUDA and the hardware side of ML, these postings seem to have less applicants in my experience than generic MLE or GenAI roles, and a strong project in this subfield might open things up. (The downside is that you'd actually have to work with this, which is not for everyone - only do this if you think you'd enjoy it.) ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- Referrals help; I'm not sure what your network looks like, but you can effectively guarantee an interview with referrals at many companies, sometimes for roles you'd ordinarily be passed up for. It might be worth spending a couple hours a week focused purely on networking. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Savior of Plant
D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO
public
contract
1,717,105,875,990
will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months?
ab9jkfk4rv
0.349301
371.385708
YES
null
b3j4pnrif5a
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Followup market:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DanMan314/what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f?r=RGFuTWFuMzE0", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,717,105,914,994
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
null
null
null
null
null
2f9pjsnl19y
false
cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdXHrri22yd.png?alt=media&token=ec0b7365-eda5-4c2d-b882-4b45e116c6ff", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elf
01buHcZEzyyvgMlRRyqU
public
contract
1,717,105,978,532
will-animal-to-human-translation-be
elf
https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b
Will Animal to Human translation be possible by 2050?
null
0.480059
85.960968
YES
null
n3w7ev6f41
false
eOLu0ORi40ULQoOrVWCUyfvEaum2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cbonyts954a", "label": "ed", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " What’s the problem with that? We are betting on whether if labor can revive. That’s the point? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jeff Koons
8GBJppKZi0gwGX2ukPAP
public
contract
1,717,106,002,411
will-uks-real-gdp-growth-for-year-2
JKHater
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJKHater%2FUUGVxInxvm.10?alt=media&token=79cb6b55-78a4-4e76-8c22-b1fb61043d3a
Will UK's real GDP growth for year 2025 exceed 1% under Labor party?
odnp1z599qj
0.355369
997.133065
NO
null
rj3ui8vsefe
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
7RvkIffNMdjtKw6IxW25
public
contract
1,717,106,015,413
will-there-be-a-photo-of-trump-in-h
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be a photo of Trump in handcuffs released before the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
zjkffxnxv4
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
GLGk91mLUs49YFxwHYu3
public
contract
1,717,106,018,380
will-obama-attend-trumps-funeral
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Obama attend Trump's funeral?
null
null
null
null
null
6z7059bq3dp
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
QI26ZeZlBCks6lmQ61p6
public
contract
1,717,106,020,532
will-elon-musk-attend-trumps-funera
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Elon Musk attend Trump's funeral?
null
null
null
null
null
ychpnzrb8j
false
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/donald-trump-guilty-hush-money-trial-00160460", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Reposting!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOIARCCSH9H.png?alt=media&token=c0544f03-47a4-45dd-b9e2-18574cfaec53", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Manifold Politics
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg
public
contract
1,717,106,029,217
what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f
ManifoldPolitics
https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621
What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?
null
null
null
null
null
f4nzx3zmxre
false
MCbUkwjw7ebMPbGwctaZmM1ca2U2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://time.com/6983196/donald-trump-convicted-hush-money-trial-new-york/?linkId=451491044", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://time.com/6983196/donald-trump-convicted-hush-money-trial-new-york/?linkId=451491044", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ZYC
Tx9a1HiZ66t1WLiNuCul
public
contract
1,717,106,040,932
if-trump-is-elected-president-in-20
zyc
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-b22a325df371
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote?
null
0.42
43.606986
NO
null
5oznndxvte5
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ZN7nrXPZEm6DRa9SrV6m
public
contract
1,717,106,068,213
will-trumps-vice-president-running-969af347a3e7
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Trump pick Rubio as his Vice President Running Mate like Benny Johnson predicts?
null
null
null
null
null
rq8op3c4f1n
false
mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'll have it challenge the winner!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stop Punting
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,224,033
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
StopPunting
https://firebasestorage.…dd4-50d1db23bb5f
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
qkutsel7iq
null
10.978434
YES
kxyl09mxu0
yeiupik5mib
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
E0j9nL4v3z9ctLlHHe8D
public
contract
1,717,106,232,711
will-donald-trump-announces-his-run
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Donald Trump announce his running mate before the Elden Ring DLC releases?
null
null
null
null
null
wz9460ghec
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
An4AQucle4fozNhlTW3o
public
contract
1,717,106,237,393
will-twitter-launch-a-peer-to-peer-99e961bf432a
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Twitter launch a Peer to Peer payment system before Donald Trump announces his running mate?
null
null
null
null
null
jeztfymyu5
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ZD7bzVqwUAZEJ5SlnY3w
public
contract
1,717,106,244,163
if-trump-wins-the-election-will-viv
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
If Trump wins the election, will Vivek Ramaswamy be given a government position (cabinet or otherwise) by EOY 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
u0g2bvgq6v9
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Official denial\" and \"official announcement\" can BOTH happen the same day, according to russia's previous records. How it resolves then? I hope towards Yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
woiVbQjfBSdAiFv7Jiyu
public
contract
1,717,106,263,338
will-russia-unilaterally-reconstitu
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
tyrtbe4zsre
false
mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7m0sh7iyrlf", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I think that's close enough to \"cray-ahn\" in spirit", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stop Punting
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,267,945
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
StopPunting
https://firebasestorage.…dd4-50d1db23bb5f
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
7m0sh7iyrlf
null
10.978434
YES
kxyl09mxu0
bqkv9ca51g7
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tyrtbe4zsre", "label": "StopPunting", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " agreed. voted that way!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,285,773
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
7m0sh7iyrlf
null
136.828259
NO
9jjqmvycj
26j532z1d11
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cmhr2bhqarg", "label": "MichaelVoss", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " hilarious absence of logic that would be from them: Ynukovych's term finished much longer ago.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That makes me think the event is likely, because of all the absurdity they usually do.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
woiVbQjfBSdAiFv7Jiyu
public
contract
1,717,106,374,491
will-russia-unilaterally-reconstitu
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
cmhr2bhqarg
null
null
null
null
mhcxn6weoi
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "happy bday trump?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
p4zVg8owHHpOvYhDV4vo
public
contract
1,717,106,421,223
will-biden-be-leading-in-538s-natio
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden be ahead of Trump on 538's national poll at the end of Trump's Birthday? (June 14)
null
null
null
null
null
2kboboo087t
false
JbR42honqBfz9TCHnHk0JGERPit2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/benjaminIkuta", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@benjaminIkuta ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "mboqp7k3bf", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " sounds like the title could be shortened to \"Will the Russia Ukraine war end without a formal peace treaty?\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
$aturation
BEFwDpExiMmV2rNXbk2b
public
contract
1,717,106,425,458
will-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-up
smokey
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKqNxgPFHnX0iy5ad3wtLe11iFMhuFJfWYG6Cpg1vnJvoewVQ=s96-c
Will the Russia Ukraine war end up in a stalemate without a formal peace treaty, like Korea?
3yt58yv0836
0.586784
319.872628
NO
null
wh4fnblbkqt
false
dZG4tTBMFKTGknyn1ZUWjB7pmXz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Guys, \"serve time\" includes house arrest, which is way more likely than 20% imo", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JS
2kIiHFTnkp5taBAnp6yc
public
contract
1,717,106,430,643
when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
JS_81
https://firebasestorage.…b16-b19b5949bcd5
When will Trump serve time?
null
null
49.128877
YES
e51df9fe2357
3tcwndc8rb9
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Trump has been convicted!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
m4Cj6alI0xlzazaTqeIE
public
contract
1,717,106,466,767
will-jair-bolsonaro-be-criminally-c
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will Jair Bolsonaro be criminally convicted before Donald Trump?
null
0.625644
3,448.920337
NO
null
3csp6dsli2f
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this reminds me of some of the silly little changes different accents have. my father's family says \"Wahr-shing-tahn\" (Washington) and \"Toosdee\" (Tuesday; they also do \"dee\" instead of \"day\" for all the other days of the week)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "those would never win here, but it's fun all the same!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,569,691
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
136.828259
NO
9jjqmvycj
r7w62cc995l
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " With this market determining nomination prior to the convention, and Trump having been convicted, I believe it can now resolve?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
whXR33tcXIAKkKMDSQYJ
public
contract
1,717,106,579,035
will-trump-be-convicted-of-any-crim
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will Trump be convicted of any crime before the 2024 election / Will Trump be the Republican nominee for president?
null
null
4,033.54229
YES
f8fd2e1418dc
2ks0lacu9sd
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4np52hdfe3", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Agreed -- the important thing is to give the idea of prediction markets more visibility.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
vcmWtbZWrVRT0dXH0QAe
public
contract
1,717,106,632,824
are-prize-points-a-good-addition-to
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Are prize points a good addition to Manifold?
4np52hdfe3
null
null
null
null
54dnslz2zmk
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r7w62cc995l", "label": "Panfilo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " True! Will resolve momentarily, description says having the delegates counts", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
whXR33tcXIAKkKMDSQYJ
public
contract
1,717,106,692,063
will-trump-be-convicted-of-any-crim
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Trump be convicted of any crime before the 2024 election / Will Trump be the Republican nominee for president?
r7w62cc995l
null
1,759.154417
YES
f8fd2e1418dc
4u2zo2u0gxk
false
mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sorry everyone, just realized add answers was off!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stop Punting
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,697,551
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
StopPunting
https://firebasestorage.…dd4-50d1db23bb5f
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
10.978434
YES
kxyl09mxu0
knglu1ucr9
false
ppnNDcLi7Eh2Vz5RVt5fswENSUB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hasn't parliament been dissolved now? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/europe/article/2024/05/30/uk-parliament-dissolves-in-anticipation-of-july-election_6673085_143.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/europe/article/2024/05/30/uk-parliament-dissolves-in-anticipation-of-july-election_6673085_143.html", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Henry
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,717,106,701,699
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
HenryLane
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHenryLane%2FPqINLecjcU.47?alt=media&token=21be9814-8db0-4e86-88bf-7715650c2327
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
null
null
885.247782
YES
7266785416d4
0h27trzs7tnc
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "strike" } ], "text": "can I suggest", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "strike" } ], "text": "New Orleans - \"nyu-or-leens\" (NO) or \"nuh-or-lins\" (YES)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "added it!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,716,081
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
136.828259
NO
9jjqmvycj
vcw5ymm9dg
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4u2zo2u0gxk", "label": "StopPunting", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ah nice, I'll add mine then", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,728,011
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
4u2zo2u0gxk
null
136.828259
NO
9jjqmvycj
zc6i2wrm479
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lol, we should say YES huh", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,106,808,990
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
136.828259
NO
9jjqmvycj
axg4tzgq7hg
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Very unlikely. The time to do that would have been in 2014, post-maidan, not now, as the Russian stated position has been that the post-maidan government is illegitimate.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We also haven’t seen Russia play the ‘government in exile’ game before. It’s more of a western thing to do, where they hold power over international institutions. The Venezuela Guaido situation is a good example.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
woiVbQjfBSdAiFv7Jiyu
public
contract
1,717,106,999,560
will-russia-unilaterally-reconstitu
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
null
50
100.443397
NO
null
pazpxex40hh
false
mwDJuMFoXLTkXDdfnRaXQXaJqww1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't understand \"man-if-old\" vs. \"mana-fold\". Isn't the 2nd syllable a schwa in either case, so the distinction between \"i\" and \"a\" doesn't change the pronunciation?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Michael Dickens
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,107,430,183
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
MichaelDickens
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9qH8xsBO_HRYodujIVQnBJc0ggL30pvw-qQI0n=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
null
null
null
dys1lhcyib4
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "When does trial end? After verdict? After sentencing? After appeal? (or is that a different trial?)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Christopher Randles
bBymOgzwrce377iB2NjQ
public
contract
1,717,107,508,024
will-trump-be-incarcerated-for-cont
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Trump be incarcerated for contempt of court at any point during his NYC criminal trial?
null
null
null
null
null
id9jenn0zx8
false
iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k5yb89ke9qf", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm not on the discord, thanks for rasing attention there", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Sapphire828
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,717,107,529,518
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
EstMtz
https://firebasestorage.…4bd-91600290a4d7
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
2yb6tijet92
null
323.959999
NO
d791944a7dcf
9nqg4ukjk7
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pazpxex40hh", "label": "MichaelDickens", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " People should IPA for phonetic descriptions, it's what it's designed for!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,107,534,972
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
pazpxex40hh
null
null
null
null
h0wwyegi09
false
fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wh4fnblbkqt", "label": "JS_81", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " people are foolish if they don't see it. Even if Trump only get probation, he gets put in house arrest or literally arrest if he fails to follow the terms of his probation.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Zac Parker
2kIiHFTnkp5taBAnp6yc
public
contract
1,717,107,538,095
when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
ZacParker
https://firebasestorage.…4d0-dbaec72eff5e
When will Trump serve time?
wh4fnblbkqt
null
13,628.77004
YES
e51df9fe2357
2i8yz4mtwp9
false
mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pazpxex40hh", "label": "MichaelDickens", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " possibly! I didnt know what a schwa is haha. If others concur, I'll N/A ha", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stop Punting
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,107,561,290
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
StopPunting
https://firebasestorage.…dd4-50d1db23bb5f
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
pazpxex40hh
null
89.041388
NO
r47hnnfg8g
2i24d37s1wx
false
mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9nqg4ukjk7", "label": "PontiMin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " when I have the time I'll update to IPA", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stop Punting
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,107,612,655
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
StopPunting
https://firebasestorage.…dd4-50d1db23bb5f
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
pazpxex40hh
null
89.041388
NO
r47hnnfg8g
d9y7y8hnz6n
false
vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I've missed, like, a month of these, so i've gone back and taken a look at the headlines. Here's what I found:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4/21/2024 - \"Swimmers Tested Positive, Then Won ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Olympic Gold", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "4/25/2024 - \"Concern Increases as Evolving ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Bird Flu ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Infects More Mammals\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "5/28/2024 - \"A Bellicose Ally Eyes a Top Job if ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Trump Wins", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FoiWcTBl35S.png?alt=media&token=647c4aee-3bfb-43fd-9209-c35365cb939e", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And \"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Trump Wins", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\" gets a surprise resolution! What might be next?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Marnix
5qsRisqOvy94WjGq5lq3
public
contract
1,717,107,665,494
what-2-word-phrases-will-appear-in
Marnix
https://firebasestorage.…d53-a4e0da9e141d
What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
282.250042
YES
e102c556afe4
gknmauxt2o8
false
hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7sc6bt56uaq", "label": "AryanBhatt", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Ok, I broke and made a more general market: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/which-of-the-names-below-will-i-rec?r=R2FycmV0dEJha2Vy", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/which-of-the-names-below-will-i-rec?r=R2FycmV0dEJha2Vy", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Garrett Baker
2WP2XUlxLOkyxchNiQCG
public
contract
1,717,107,712,911
will-i-receive-significant-evidence
GarrettBaker
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c
Will I receive significant evidence that Paul Christiano is not legally bound by a mutual OpenAI NDA before EOY2024
7sc6bt56uaq
null
null
null
null
h145aiaxrhu
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Facebook post linked was written in 2022, and the earliest it predicts China would even be ready is 2025. I don’t see a whole lot supporting something happening in the next six months.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
k4XTBQLFuDvBljexbalv
public
contract
1,717,107,737,910
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-the-end
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
null
0.096206
88.336532
NO
null
log7kio2w6k
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pankmctawil", "label": "Balasar", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " But can they even strike ammunition depots according to what I've read? The wording of politico made it sound like only actual combatants + stuff flying into the war zone (missiles and bombers).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
rwb8spHLhFTFd9GtmEza
public
contract
1,717,107,739,621
will-the-us-remove-its-restrictions
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will the US remove its restrictions on allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to target inside Russia by July 1st?
e2qptkrjkxj
0.483721
556.383079
NO
null
k5153j76gnr
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
kmYKPUWhxrArYdx05dXb
public
contract
1,717,107,808,232
will-internet-archive-win-its-appea
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Internet Archive win it's appeal in the Hachette v Internet Archive copyright infringement case?
null
null
null
null
null
9n2wu2pgp4v
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
7bCrlKrlDHpfClflnN0C
public
contract
1,717,107,831,817
will-you-be-able-to-pet-the-dogs-in-8796e2073598
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will you be able to pet the dogs in Grand Theft Auto 6 on launch?
null
null
null
null
null
pvjwt27biu
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the creator's account is deleted, this can resolve", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
h8a2KPjzqjh8E3w1N8Mh
public
contract
1,717,107,970,688
who-will-earn-the-most-mana-in-seas
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Who will win all of Diamond League Season 12 (April)?
null
null
null
null
null
a9osi656mir
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"votes to leave in a referendum\" -- what if SNP or other indy parties treat a general or Scottish election as a de facto referendum and win most of the votes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
LdJik4EyXk74RYrWKwnk
public
contract
1,717,108,052,283
will-scotland-choose-to-leave-the-u
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Will Scotland choose to leave the UK before 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
js4zhxcitqg
false
7ZUzSoFRd0SABh2p63Gp2Gcnr1u1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qamvjy84dx", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Wow! Thank you for the detailed reply. Seems like a common point of feedback is to focus on a few explainable projects/contributions, then start interviewing ASAP. I'll also start dedicating time to networking and will look into CUDA/ML hardware roles.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Michael Lo
D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO
public
contract
1,717,108,064,647
will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab
lomichael
https://firebasestorage.…667-f380aa8a874f
Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months?
ab9jkfk4rv
null
null
null
null
ajyd95gnw6l
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h145aiaxrhu", "label": "24a", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/AviSchwartz/will-the-chinese-army-will-launch-a?r=MjRh", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/AviSchwartz/will-the-chinese-army-will-launch-a?r=MjRh", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Same question sitting at 4% here. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
k4XTBQLFuDvBljexbalv
public
contract
1,717,108,349,517
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-the-end
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
h145aiaxrhu
0.096206
88.336532
NO
null
r0hig3sao2d
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The trial, as in courtroom spectacle, is over. The chance he will be held in contempt of court at his sentencing seems remote.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
ClubmasterTransparent
bBymOgzwrce377iB2NjQ
public
contract
1,717,108,411,894
will-trump-be-incarcerated-for-cont
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will Trump be incarcerated for contempt of court at any point during his NYC criminal trial?
null
0.15558
555.450984
YES
null
2wf0f5dqzf6
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Re \"God exists\", what if the AI's point of view is \"he/she/it does now\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
1STu5FsWBOg9N36DS5On
public
contract
1,717,108,461,741
if-a-friendly-ai-takes-control-of-h
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?
null
null
109.14406
YES
qt5wakyfod
rl9sk8amga
false
nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "607q6nwc6cn", "label": "TiredCliche", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yes I saw. I based my assumptions of timeline on that release..", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
TSLABull
1bBSgtrgwLVKnyIn46gW
public
contract
1,717,108,546,926
will-aigenerated-content-be-good-en
MolbyDick
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXY86BCu6RTvqG8yEFc5Y7D_S97tCf20jO2Z8tVPKaaUqG14DA9PLqiLMFEeMfNIZqYYE4tIzI_BrVccd4GjslXsd5xpRxNHEYntNGm2gIyorhNQXCFWaGveqVbopCKtvW8Hxom_b74OxRgIK95auugOa5P56HIijcmp8zUBmze5fHo3g0ex4yJjnK3v7cvgEOF25_-TG4N8zJWXs8h_RcZDoDOKDs__GbJIprrIRmH0xBPqyMPjM6JiRSy1sfS72DHbE53wywXJmkbjC8pw3Fv6tHNtztWvt2EKzgxFCFO5vBboyToBEm5ne-O_e2iPy2vA10-am1HyumXwhHQ8TmgD7hUTB7yokY1_OnpMRIYz_I26jS_8xrIRYiLTpn4tz1ehGr5MBXc52cHtHOFIr75TBvfRBucNqWMi55HJ3gMafiLCsRRufPbWV9W75ebNkpPQr-Fajv1VVUfjMrOmDhzwcB0uEArrgF0lQ1aSuwd2JN11ZJo7Y7p4gyPbmMDureFH9Ppk6xmGp53c3N5lIgeS_dH309hrZWL-N1_L1xoWufgpSeq0GaYVcpChDe_uWm5muiM39lzL5xdzCh5CLJn2HsflObP9H_Ei2mQXM_JQa0PHtPI11wk4w90HMPihYAIv8U4GECdlSV7nKemKVQ5C9asqy40yji5loeo3jof6fSSvWMYvFj206ohJ0r-NviW0y2A-Pp_VCPDMPg8cLpToFGPcmYguqw6Kw87iUow37UNBwG_vKFyI9_k0QWVT6dXpSSMYpts6Ui-KOv__LGb_ybFWH0dHGR_KA_WNNWZyoH8IDbwiGhUATlBS8qTwS7MDrON0E7K2MJCxCHBcVQdmXFNrBvz0zi2kwCtaPUcLR9teA9h_lcj2ybyXjPfdY_KVPz_smz9XzNssQ5Qaw5sR6n1aTX-wNaONG7j3nIvaOXIArN1glV07JsXIOQYPkPHFnWWq0DMoqOBJHBcna922FE=s96-c
Will AI-generated content be good enough to make short films and miniseries of Hollywood quality by the start of 2025?
607q6nwc6cn
0.05
1,270.271149
YES
null
a2pluuz6eh
false
yxNesNHjvvYDJHtbR8A77Z1SUFy2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Jury reached a verdict: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4685007-jury-reaches-verdict-trump-hush-money-trial/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4685007-jury-reaches-verdict-trump-hush-money-trial/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Scott
GWBL9o634N8NvpZ5u5Zs
public
contract
1,717,108,650,510
will-donald-trumps-stormy-danielshu
ScottW
https://firebasestorage.…6eb-278099032e7d
Will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial conclude before Election Day 2024?
null
0.985589
203.430531
YES
null
u11k1s7164b
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Very likely an AI will be able to do better than the average human on an IQ test by 2030. (having the same general intelligence as a human is another matter).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ponti Min
XTRIecctqBQmMeRjXWCM
public
contract
1,717,108,659,004
will-ai-surpass-human-intellect-by
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
ym1sixow639
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzS9_gx8tuh.png?alt=media&token=7c8beae8-0e75-411c-8ab9-457f14937932", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi#1cve949y6px", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Told ya!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
1uOFS8AhZxCHKdmZrwD9
public
contract
1,717,108,998,376
acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]
null
0.701902
27,759.285233
YES
null
nzfrsn44uk8
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "label": "MarcusAbramovitch", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " There seems to be a qualitative gap between \"declaration of war\" (unambiguous) and \"wartime military action\" (open to interpretation). Care to elaborate on the latter?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaz Downright
r0uN7zwY0yRxBx0xq5Kj
public
contract
1,717,109,092,559
will-israel-and-lebanonhezbollah-go
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2024?
null
0.364729
1,475.270069
NO
null
z0nhj913hgq
false
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQyo8_MkAVj.png?alt=media&token=7cb347c3-9471-4bdf-aca4-d3b5e6399d1f", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,717,109,468,233
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Tumbles
https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
null
189,815.772749
YES
51e4cacd136a