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nfeJ5SWiuuOAbv8T6qHU | will-the-uk-100k-tax-trap-be-scrapp | 240.49273070694804 | Will the UK £100k 'tax trap' be scrapped by the 2025 Tax year? | 1744585140000 | ddTKezM6hUd6XBMFemlsvUn51el2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711367652010 | Cameron Holmes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the UK make changes to the tax system at the £100k threshold in the 2025 tax year (by April 2025)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The spirit of this question is around if people in this ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | CameronHolmes | 1712691564724 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "183055e7baf7", "prob": 0.5660074490609687, "text": "No", "index": 0, "poolNo": 140.91765226740836, "userId": "ddTKezM6hUd6XBMFemlsvUn51el2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 108.05018817567586, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nfeJ5SWiuuOAbv8T6qHU", "createdTime": 1711367652011, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1664803252242 | 0 | [{"name": "Tax", "slug": "tax", "groupId": "ifd68EW8txu6x0cNMm3A", "createdTime": 1711367652246}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1711367652268}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aa... | ["tax", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk-politics", "uk-policies-by-the-next-election"] | 0.25 | 1712691561474 | 1711383810422 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7774014579042846 | Q9JZKHkoT1vzEBTraXL8 | {"NO": 1038.056911496153, "YES": 881.0982790387733} | 0.8044784728468134 | will-on-green-make-the-top-fifty-po | 719.825945835814 | Will "On green" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.74533674222721 | False | basic | public | 1711368286843 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.010034555872205475, "month": -0.027022739372252524} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.545050320713558, "platformFee": 2.0409304768432186, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719705074439 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 14 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711368287024}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719705071358 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.534072709321722 | oLfBHAcPEAgeSYr7PE1e | {"NO": 228.87110189338088, "YES": 143.5968488347103} | 0.6462627285345268 | will-the-hawaiian-crow-corvus-hawai | 257 | Will the Hawaiian Crow (Corvus hawaiiensis) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711368353307 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Hawaiian Crow, a.k.a. ʻalalā is a bird native to Hawaii. It is currently extinct in the wild, though reintroduction programs are underway. This market will resolve YES if the Hawaiian Crow is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2282639820692893, "platformFee": 1.2282639820692893, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | ExtinctionRisk | 1716326947238 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | [{"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1711368353520}, {"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-243810591da2", "groupId": "b31ce04a-9c58-4318-988e-28474c7761f2", "createdTime": 1711368353521}, {"name": "Extinction Risk", "slug": "extinction-risk", "... | ["animals", "environment-243810591da2", "extinction-risk", "zoology", "biodiversity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716326943850 | 1711441337114 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
i6GJeQ90F2QjzdzpbjkI | which-modern-president-would-you-ra | 0 | Which modern President would you rather spend a weekend with at Camp David? | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1711369003323 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | BTE | 1711369003466 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1645484592545 | 0 | [{"name": "Camp David", "slug": "camp-david", "groupId": "c49f5914-8a3f-4407-9006-9b87d5fdb296", "createdTime": 1711369003466}] | ["camp-david"] | 0.25 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37534817455496605 | CyI5EShS5k5wzBH6nye3 | {"NO": 112.49268445245832, "YES": 478.1439010774069} | 0.12386109630951984 | will-the-european-hedgehog-erinaceu | 301.251142088409 | Will the European Hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) become extinct in the current century? | 4102441140000 | OOuU1xDOeYXmwST8K8XFHi8dedJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711369138750 | Extinction Risk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The European Hedgehog, a.k.a. Western European Hedgehog is a species of hedgehog native large parts of Europe. This market will resolve YES if the European Hedgehog is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared ex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3024784170919743, "platformFee": 1.3024784170919743, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | ExtinctionRisk | 1716326937348 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1708510781928 | 0 | [{"name": "Zoology", "slug": "zoology", "groupId": "tvzqaAGtUlwMWPfYQLuh", "createdTime": 1711369138914}, {"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1711369138917}, {"name": "Environment", "slug": "environment-243810591da2", "groupId": "b31ce04a-9c58-4318-98... | ["zoology", "animals", "environment-243810591da2", "extinction-risk", "biodiversity"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716326933872 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6411469328844541 | e29fx6GNsrINH0Hv79sd | {"NO": 1142.4976647028082, "YES": 169.2064515125783} | 1 | 20240329-will-the-sp500-close-above | 2282.029265867095 | 2024-03-29 Will the S&P500 close above $5,234.18? | 1711721627245 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.364259159420938 | True | play | YES | public | 1711370051321 | MRN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711721627245 | 360 | MRN267 | 1711721923467 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1704225270314 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1711370051532}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1711370051535}, {"name": "S&P 500 Changes", "slug": "sp-500-changes", "groupId": "1c9a3cf9-c2b7-4136-ae31-a21... | ["stocks", "economics-default", "sp-500-changes"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711721101595 | 1711721922864 | 0.92 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4657337801167581 | wnfbdJ73ySy41ZD35LXi | {"NO": 115.10916715247824, "YES": 172.99999999999997} | 0 | will-more-than-1-character-die-in-t | 33 | Will more than 1 character die in the Year 2 hunt/fight in Kingdom Death Monster tonight? | 1711457982906 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.151093328726509 | True | play | NO | public | 1711370332001 | bh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Playing through my fourth or fifth KDM campaign, but this is the first in the new Dreamers campaign version, with all new monsters and story events. It's possible this fight will be against a monster we've never seen before. ", "type": "text"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711457982906 | 140 | hamiltonianurst | 1717422628987 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669137065045 | 0 | [{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717422628987}] | ["nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1711392647552 | 0.37 | GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hTcEtvBeOUiO1tARGA6K | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-3d86cc2ff93b | 1080.3807600120945 | What will be true of the xkcd on Wednesday, March 27th, 2024? | 1711511940000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1711371375405 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711574213127 | 1140 | EBurk | 1711511940000 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "fb76ac22981d", "prob": 0.07, "text": "Black Hat will make an appearance", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.556514341023803, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 279.3665682399885, "textFts": "'appear':6 'black':1 'hat':2 'make':4", "contractId": "hTcEtvBeOUiO1tARGA6K", "resolution": "... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1706489499554 | 0 | [{"name": "Engineering", "slug": "engineering", "groupId": "49148d79-ce4e-4856-962c-3f90256abeab", "createdTime": 1711371375676}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1711371375679}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "created... | ["engineering", "space", "mathematics", "webcomics", "sarcasm", "xkcd", "language", "romance"] | 0.25 | 1711500827036 | 1711544590985 | 0.04 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5418433168953142 | r5inYf03ZoSNFZIPuk1p | {"NO": 179.75568817832462, "YES": 111.48873099289341} | 0.6559823165218588 | will-2024s-return-of-deadman-mode-i | 40 | Will 2024's return of Deadman Mode in Oldschool Runescape lead to any news posts about cheating or technical issues? | 1735707540000 | Z9aZTIVJnUhuuq6utvNs9jSJiHu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1711373154192 | Alyssa | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plans are underway for a return of Deadman Mode in Oldschool Runescape in 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://secure.runescape.com/m=news/a=97/low-level-wilderness-hotspot-deadman-2024--more?oldschool=1", "c... | BINARY | {"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.12215591083770547, "platformFee": 0.12215591083770547, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Tulip | 1714346378504 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu_S1biLuCg60Z2_YY6AP1AB96QvecyAjv40j_2EHQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1663717371895 | 0 | [{"name": "Runescape", "slug": "runescape", "groupId": "8687a7e1-3324-4977-a88e-588ca456c229", "createdTime": 1711373154331}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711373154343}, {"name": "Old School Runescape (OSRS)", "slug": "old-schoo... | ["runescape", "entertainment", "old-school-runescape-osrs", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714346375222 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35644960937421616 | SEfI2VqTDlQZiTirtjKv | {"NO": 10.573645772962209, "YES": 28467.797834425368} | 0 | -will-2-arizona-beat-6-clemson-in-t | 33292.112162459875 | 🏀 Will #2 Arizona beat #6 Clemson in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024) | 1711675567384 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.219056067579521 | True | play | NO | public | 1711373379021 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711675567384 | 480 | dglid | 1711675567384 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB"}, {"name": "March Madness", "slug": "march-madness", "groupId": "Tp4TDTWUGnEUMvBcCPIR"}, {"name": "College Basketball", "slug": "college-basketball", "grou... | ["sports-default", "basketball", "march-madness", "college-basketball", "march-madness-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1711675333738 | 1711374099213 | 0 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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4spuCE1C6HlBFQqhEzJG | will-imu-be-male-or-female | 0 | Will Imu Be Male Or Female? | 1713983340000 | JmFcb8e5c8V36vdLxmjkt10zVjq1 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1711391094694 | Sam EveryThing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713983340990 | SamEveryThing | 1711391094694 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI2OV1h7pHWXnvO_ff-Kq4wpMKx0eC0OMU5mcic_AJf=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1710269695422 | 0 | 0.25 | ["5a4a68616576", "fcc648a89c2b"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Y8xY2r82WF6Ja262VV3G | when-will-manifold-reach-9000-month | 130344.4504807165 | When will Manifold Reach 9000 Monthly Active Users? | 1719085109632 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1711393230863 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on the numbers reported here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 126.20662123025357, "platformFee": 85.04184257677436, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719085109632 | 10465 | AmmonLam | 1719085109632 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 25 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "0ebb340bbff1", "prob": 0, "text": "Before the end of March 27th, 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.423244941962821, "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1452.3727891642143, "textFts": "'2024':7 '27th':6 'end':3 'march':5", "contractId": "Y8xY2r82WF6Ja262VV3G", "resolution": "NO",... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1711393231328}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1711393231331}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-user-retention", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1718462628779 | 1719084428585 | 0.01 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | False | old | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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