CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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2v5zifaoqb

if-the-us-election-were-between-onl

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If the US election were between only RFK Jr. and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

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JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

none

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Joshua

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will-i-go-to-new-york-tonight

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Will I go to New York tonight?

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earrnncvat

if-biden-drops-out-what-would-happe

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If Biden drops out, what would happen to his donations?

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cpmm-multi-1

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6.4751031558700465

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1720191980042

Quillist

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Quillist

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ONLY_CREATOR

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which-of-these-3-outcomes-will-o-ch

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which of these 3 outcomes will o choose???

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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1720192400834

Tom Bennett

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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TomBennett

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJynP_dsiq0Qpo5nF7OZwpIoX5fZoF8tFAG1ST9k=s96-c

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1720192929760

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sp38okpdic

will-a-us-president-order-the-assas

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Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

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FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1

cpmm-multi-1

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9.588436274164536

False

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1720193215482

inaimathi

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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7072

10000

inaimathi

1720246433548

0

https://firebasestorage.…f1b-6b8056fdb600

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ONLY_CREATOR

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1720246430475

1720243128895

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9xiez4awr4

will-bitcoin-next-rise-above-65k-or

40

Will Bitcoin next rise above 65k or fall below 45k?

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RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1720193702031

fish

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6237319932547993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

40

100

kurt

1720194640351

0

https://firebasestorage.…ea6-9b4d3d6f8834

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DISABLED

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how-much-will-algorithmic-progress

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How much will algorithmic progress in AI reduce cost for SotA SWE-agents by mid 2025?

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5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1720195648620

Jacob Pfau

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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JacobPfau

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0.8371734020371071

will-gpt5-be-gpt5o

4296.460535582754

Will GPT-5 be GPT-5o?

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kY5nqFqyXKWctEgAsm3KsQCeygv1

cpmm-1

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6.070285227542014

False

basic

public

1720196598720

Jack Galler

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-4o was released separately from GPT-4, a completely different architecture, with end to end multimodality. Will GPT-5 also be trained for end to end multimodality?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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4296.460535582754

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gallerdude

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will-biden-remain-president-through-i8q2v7zfqt

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Will Biden remain President through end of July 2024?

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cpmm-1

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9.253276671754744

False

basic

public

1720197349392

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "...

BINARY

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jack

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0.8726989404134258

will-i-make-rmm-2025

260

Will I make RMM 2025?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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play

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1720199318603

Math4Life2020

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I get invited to RMM 2025 by the US, regardless of whether I am an official competitor and regardless of whether I accept the invitation. Resolves NO otherwise. In the past, the top 6 people in the US who have attended neither RMM n...

BINARY

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Math4Life2020

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doawhtg0u3

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will-i-make-imo-2025-ce26w5jwer

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Will I make IMO 2025?

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kDJ5DUrMFUfJsgmHxUW07kt4rtb2

cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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play

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1720199483906

Math4Life2020

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I get invited to IMO 2025, and NO otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Disclaimer: this is probably resolving NO.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":...

BINARY

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1349.1601079214943

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Math4Life2020

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{"NO": 62.51688583492703, "YES": 159.95678393841536}

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will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-alwco1njfs

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Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2025?

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GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1

cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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play

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1720200884689

cshunter

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80

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cash

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will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-w9d4l5y1al

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Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2024?

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GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1

cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

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play

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1720200936812

cshunter

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cash

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who-was-a-better-presidentprime-min

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Who was a better president/prime minister

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none

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1000000

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1720201139793

Chinmay The Math Guy

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POLL

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ChinmayTheMathGuy

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will-in-favour-of-exploring-nagging

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Will "In favour of exploring nagging doubts about x..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

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cpmm-1

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9.873181566618463

False

public

1720201327284

Less Wrong

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100

1000

LessWrong

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will-i-get-a-girlfriend-before-i-ge

325

Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1720201378954

hi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This does not include past relationships or awards. Resolves based on date that I took the USAMO, or date when we start dating. This does not include boyfriends. Whether or not they count as a girlfriend is up to my discretion.", "type": "text"}]}]...

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325

100

DeadRhino

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will-i-get-a-boyfriend-before-i-get

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Will I get a boyfriend before I get an award on the USAMO?

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o9FcqlxIeJWuI0XwvdE395elUPJ3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1720201816629

Hannah

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This does not include past relationships or awards. Resolves based on date that I took the USAMO, or date when we start dating.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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795.2573556626393

100

hannah

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ccily5p8ft

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will-my-next-girlfriend-be-an-oly-q

714

Will my next girlfriend be an oly qualifier?

1815461940000

3v0nsTlPsch9KcGmyh9OHIgz64k1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1720202245686

hi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES iff my next girlfriend has qualified for USA(J)MO before we start dating.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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714

100

DeadRhino

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Who will become the next governor of Texas after Greg Abbott?

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Will Andrew Tate aka Top G be spotted outside of the EU in 2024, after Romanian judge ruled he must stay within EU?

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Will Hurricane Beryl make landfall in Houston or the Greater Houston area?

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Will Spain beat France? | Euro 2024

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Will Biden do better on the ABC interview than the debate, according to LLM on the transcripts?

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Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025)

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How do you rate Joe Biden's performance in the ABC interview, on a scale from 1 to 5?

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How many NATO member countries will there be at the end of 2029?

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chris (strutheo)

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Will Brazil join NATO by the end of 2026?

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chris (strutheo)

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Will Brazil join NATO by the end of 2027?

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