CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

MqA3GCjRJzLSz74eMX3b

what-will-the-outcome-of-the-new-nf

40

What will the outcome of the new NFL hip drop tackle & kickoff rules be? (ADD YOUR OWN ANSWERS)

1757131140000

IVngLqcAfmRZEWzib4OcDqzj8W62

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711478175305

Dylan Crimmins

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The new changes to the NFL Rules regarding tackling and the kickoff have seen public interest. These rules include a complete rework of the kickoff, seeing a new style of play similar to the current XFL rules (see image) In addition to the new kick...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

140

DylanCrimmins

1711478671709

0

https://storage.googleap…b4OcDqzj8W62.png

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "23fba527df87", "prob": 0.5, "text": "They receive public backlash DURING the season (acknowledged by at least 1 sports article)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "IVngLqcAfmRZEWzib4OcDqzj8W62", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'1':12 'acknowledg':8 'articl':14 'backlash':4 'least':11 'public':3...

0.3333333333333333

1711237462071

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1711478175524}, {"name": "American Football", "slug": "american-football", "groupId": "ce506ff3-38db-4709-83ce-b40797d884e4", "createdTime": 1711478175527}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp...

["football", "american-football", "nfl", "sports-default"]

0.25

1711478668440

False

Nw06GcpwNVQ9EeAeF4PH

ernie-crazy-project-goals-log-for-c

45

Ernie crazy project goals log for calibration. Wannabe ze frank

2240639940000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711478290036

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think of a lot of projects ideas but don't do many of them. This is for me to track them. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also if the tools here change and get deeper, this could get super ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5694271030419329, "platformFee": 0.5694271030419329, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

905

Ernie

1714840709844

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

3

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "cb6f328e3355", "prob": 0.5196003074558031, "text": "I buy a video camera that can record for 24h+ and record various public places", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26, "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 24.038461538461544, "textFts": "'24h':10 'buy':2 'camera':5 'place':15 'public':1...

0.3333333333333333

1668384110640

0

[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1711478290295}]

["personal"]

0.25

1714840706591

1711481530550

False

0.3605739423690599

vvC4j66hceWN5wgxx9Zo

{"NO": 107.17923097565807, "YES": 1725.4935103537198}

0

will-i-have-10k-yes-shares-here

19678.396096848064

Will I have 10k Yes shares here?

1717024759737

9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1711479585659

Kongo Landwalker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Kongo has 10000 Yes shares on this market, it resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise resolves NO after market closure.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 81.94263157599721, "platformFee": 74.9988426943296, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717024759737

300.5

KongoLandwalker

1717024759737

0

https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f

28

0

0.3333333333333333

1681038287526

0

[{"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1711522755618}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1711522756468}]

["nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1717024745776

1716108137661

0.03

9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2

0.4922971190015825

tY3Vy5lxOJXDJ1xrEK2M

{"NO": 28.68795039276415, "YES": 524.3100461761964}

0

will-sonora-pass-108-be-open-by-may

435.911233540186

Will Sonora Pass 108 be open by May 12 2024?

1715522905677

NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1711479601016

Teddy Weverka

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "when will this road from Yosemite to places east open up for the season?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://sierramountainpasses.com/central-sierra/caltrans-mountain-passes-informat...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4357491113640153, "platformFee": 2.4357491113640153, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715522925402

120

TeddyWeverka

1715522905677

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c

8

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1678136362368

0

[{"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1711479601201}, {"name": "Recreation", "slug": "recreation", "groupId": "c7bcbbea-b527-4e01-9803-fd48ba3d69b5", "createdTime": 1711479601204}, {"name": "🏄 California", "slug": "california", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", ...

["weather", "recreation", "california", "backpacking"]

0.25

0.5

1715447679989

1715365687818

0.05

NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1

0.6837453829035964

72QBE6fD1vZWkek8ZDdl

{"NO": 11876.768469337734, "YES": 312.4646034109978}

1

will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri

11709.366178746417

Will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the USA 2024 presidential election is called?

1717104001861

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

YES

public

1711480407376

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 52.627810748404265, "platformFee": 0.4797080928162581, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717104001861

1000

strutheo

1717104001861

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

26

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1711480407525}, {"name": "Law", "slug": "law", "groupId": "721015fa-be97-4989-b9e9-9a5cd25709d6", "createdTime": 1711480407532}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqti...

["trump-indictments", "law", "us-politics", "elections", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717103993302

1716493361597

0.99

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0.6881801296840647

7hnjscpmQScg4z3hLKMb

{"NO": 10580.751582333905, "YES": 338.90290588401604}

1

will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri-a0ccb4c82123

9826.087614038828

Will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the next iPhone is released?

1717106118212

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.49235728302946

True

basic

YES

public

1711480486390

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 38.76427870168036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717106118212

1000

strutheo

1717106118212

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

17

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1711480486536}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711480486538}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "cre...

["iphone", "technology-default", "apple", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "politics-default", "elections", "trump-indictments", "law", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1717106114034

1711480935493

0.99

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

78YaamA5xfBY8DIH3qfh

if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-e229503e11bd

0

If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or A can of beans?

1712037460232

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1

True

public

1711480599704

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712037480924

strutheo

1712037463273

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

102

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 1711480599863}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1711480599888}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "create...

["future-us-presidents", "donald-trump", "polls", "us-politics"]

0.25

1711511497495

["24384cedd739"]

8OgyqkXfBJWYTp0UsgCi

in-what-year-will-a-baby-be-born-on

616.28346282128

In what year will the first baby be born on the moon?

7289672340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711481378142

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "LyJfK0NRECnLS2rnRRDz", "label": "/strutheo/will-a-baby-be-born-on-the-moon-bef-158fcc930932"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See:...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.15854869996519866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1719171367563

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

18

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2bafe5b5d6fb", "prob": 0.01385819375838983, "text": "2040", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.803925726448433, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 697.6422174993295, "textFts": "'2040':1", "contractId": "8OgyqkXfBJWYTp0UsgCi", "createdTime": 1711481378142, "probChanges": {"day": -3.295...

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1711481378370}, {"name": "Baby Predictions", "slug": "baby-predictions", "groupId": "8iaUsWCnlf3CGsjPg0lf", "createdTime": 1711481378369}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 171...

["moon", "baby-predictions", "spacex", "space-exploration", "artemis-3", "space-colonization", "space", "epic-scifi"]

0.25

1719171364414

1711711135435

True

prob-desc

0.6294738553130923

Ywe1vSH0czutbnUwMeVs

{"NO": 394.3341113253032, "YES": 219.64475485951883}

0.7530874943358222

will-a-baby-be-born-on-the-moon-bef

196

Will a baby be born on the moon before the end of 2100?

4133998740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711481409087

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "LyJfK0NRECnLS2rnRRDz", "label": "/strutheo/will-a-baby-be-born-on-the-moon-bef-158fcc930932"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See:...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02149656359619745}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5076713601322917, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

280

strutheo

1719083260271

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Life & Death", "slug": "life-death", "groupId": "2de76c6e-155b-4bd1-b477-1b2a3dec0634", "createdTime": 1711481409226}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1711481409240}, {"name": "Baby Predictions", "slug": "baby-predictions", "groupId": "8iaUsWCnlf3CGsj...

["life-death", "spacex", "baby-predictions", "moon", "space-exploration", "population", "space", "birth-rate", "humanity", "space-colonization"]

0.25

0.5

1719083257179

0.5573510451708603

1oe7uTTG1GcagaLVOAGZ

{"NO": 133.48187889428803, "YES": 220.42501487546812}

0.4326190047738546

will-a-baby-be-born-on-mars-before

278.5123879957161

Will a baby be born on Mars before the end of 2100?

4133998740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711481455468

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.05156415704015238, "week": -0.05156415704015238, "month": -0.10848731137644751}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.445606675441414, "platformFee": 1.1309025375126365, "liquidityFee": 0}

20

180

strutheo

1720220888942

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

4

1

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Birth rate", "slug": "birth-rate", "groupId": "41fd3ad6-06db-4947-b3a4-0cc18dfd9bd2", "createdTime": 1711481455879}, {"name": "Humanity", "slug": "humanity", "groupId": "ddfda799-b9bf-4f73-9399-7141d9bf4b4d", "createdTime": 1711481455880}, {"name": "Human Population", "slug": "human-population", "groupId": "...

["birth-rate", "humanity", "human-population", "baby-predictions", "population", "space-exploration", "mars", "space-colonization", "spacex", "space"]

0.25

0.5

1720220885766

mVFOd221bQU05aRC6MGN

in-what-year-will-a-baby-be-born-on-5db88172f686

295.9175125921596

In what year will the first baby be born on Mars?

7289672340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711481495891

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9636049173845906, "platformFee": 0.7155929224865168, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1718621685977

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "32ba32972c33", "prob": 0.03850662514393544, "text": "2069", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.71466091750318, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 567.1750225485796, "textFts": "'2069':1", "contractId": "mVFOd221bQU05aRC6MGN", "createdTime": 1711481495891, "probChanges": {"day": 9.7144...

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1711481496155}, {"name": "Human Population", "slug": "human-population", "groupId": "ac979267-d729-4d22-b860-829c4589abb1", "createdTime": 1711481496152}, {"name": "Life & Death", "slug": "life-death", "grou...

["space-exploration", "human-population", "life-death", "space-colonization", "spacex", "population", "birth-rate", "humanity", "mars", "space", "baby-predictions"]

0.25

1718621682757

True

prob-desc

0.13492834800307774

1CXGYuMMv8KAEFd0FgBM

{"NO": 910.4530328796067, "YES": 1347.515022107807}

0.0953370795759049

will-a-baby-be-born-on-the-moon-bef-d847c4f22a70

630.3983839309349

Will a baby be born on the moon before someone walks on Mars?

4133998740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.004733788171887

False

basic

public

1711481560403

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1712016807011

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

17

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": 1711481560596}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1711481560606}, {"name": "Space colonization", "slug": "space-colonization", "groupId": "9c2dd55b-2a49-42e3-be94-45b38d7b54c2"...

["moon", "spacex", "space-colonization", "life-death", "mars", "space", "human-population", "humanity", "space-exploration"]

0.25

0.5

1712016803580

1711482028369

0.30659292076979505

FvmPzjliAiGP44ZSIB75

{"NO": 69.21748838675529, "YES": 882.9501675962482}

0.03350078624593702

manifold-and-all-information-will-b

985.7635130479428

Manifold and all info on humanity will be completely destroyed including all emissions

1877583540000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711481847613

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ie there will proveably be no knowledge remaining of manifold or humanity available at any point in all existence, meta existence, supergod visible space, conceivable space, potential space, or any other way. Manifold and earth and all human relics...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

Ernie

1712003894486

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1668384110640

0

0.25

0.5

1711564890096

1711488128430

WZjXbun2gYY3zeFdr4zh

what-will-happen-in-next-5days-in-a

501.1140791126126

What will happen in next 5days in Africa?

1711882713728

tb37LeCVPGPwEHCl02kENfsqUV43

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711482257186

Iyoha Gideon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Youre Cute I Love You GIF by BellaKatDesignCo", "src": "https://media2.giphy.com/media/l6b1QYVQ8qLhefyLeg/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1catpfq8g9polxh7euxay3qqkucqnrsujekgjq4t0x6&ep=v1_gifs_trending&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711882713728

460

IyohaGideon

1711882713728

0

https://firebasestorage.…104-baf5b439ff64

13

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "a549e49d5561", "prob": 0.78, "text": "The economy get better", "index": 0, "poolNo": 278.0014981307869, "userId": "tb37LeCVPGPwEHCl02kENfsqUV43", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 78.41067895996552, "textFts": "'better':4 'economi':2 'get':3", "contractId": "WZjXbun2gYY3zeFdr4zh", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId":...

0.3333333333333333

1711325914777

0

[]

0.25

1711882130921

1711638455837

0.72

tb37LeCVPGPwEHCl02kENfsqUV43

False

0.2179612327858714

LyJfK0NRECnLS2rnRRDz

{"NO": 969.5155163655512, "YES": 973.884342732083}

0.2171958304439271

will-a-baby-be-born-on-the-moon-bef-158fcc930932

753.9449665468325

Will a baby be born on the moon before the end of 2060?

2871781140000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.652832584981294

False

basic

public

1711482425378

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Ywe1vSH0czutbnUwMeVs", "label": "/strutheo/will-a-baby-be-born-on-the-moon-bef"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "...

BINARY

{"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3409745000986867, "platformFee": 0.3409745000986867, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1714157256552

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

11

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Humanity", "slug": "humanity", "groupId": "ddfda799-b9bf-4f73-9399-7141d9bf4b4d", "createdTime": 1711482425536}, {"name": "Space colonization", "slug": "space-colonization", "groupId": "9c2dd55b-2a49-42e3-be94-45b38d7b54c2", "createdTime": 1711482425540}, {"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5...

["humanity", "space-colonization", "spacex", "moon", "birth-rate", "space-exploration", "life-death", "population", "space", "baby-predictions"]

0.25

0.5

1714157253032

1711482920208

0.2197528613129482

ckEThIMLfTNz2EO6R40V

{"NO": 2224.7638816834337, "YES": 110.17887918261147}

0.8504574854567525

will-marc-andreessen-be-right-in-pr

9724.210653466844

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

1806130740000

IyiwKUGua1dFW1oTwQ3hzphva5s2

cpmm-1

0

9.33372675279811

False

basic

public

1711482730503

Jx

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Andreessen tweeted this statement on 3/26/24. This question will resolve if/when a replacement bridge becomes operational. But it will close three years after the bridge collapse, on 3/26/27. I'm not betting in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.003025702301373112}

0

{"creatorFee": 28.97508560313213, "platformFee": 27.291865541138595, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1215

Jx

1718929421864

0

https://firebasestorage.…b3d-2645e9c31722

94

0

0.3333333333333333

1708979491108

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1711482730654}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711482730676}, {"name": "Shipping", "slug": "shipping", "groupId": "SjhcRNwIiOeXXYR48zjO", "creat...

["politics-default", "us-politics", "shipping", "infrastructure"]

0.25

0.5

1718929418769

1715296457994

0.5924702368447318

wNYcRF2ZvouoBcwf4LBr

{"NO": 594.6789531732785, "YES": 1413.2818833366614}

0.3795493360849995

will-djt-stock-close-at-over-75-any

2142.5373529156595

Will DJT stock close at over $75 anytime before the end of the year 2024?

1735707540000

s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2

cpmm-1

0

9.644829176017872

False

basic

public

1711484306157

Quantum Gambler

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzlsRS9j5F4.avif?alt=media&token=dd4e7806-7e4e-42fb-ba82-16d78650015d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2204506639150008}

0

{"creatorFee": 35.14448156202194, "platformFee": 3.541650951342909, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Mirek

1719257038771

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055

24

0

0.3333333333333333

1644464681678

0

[{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1711484306393}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1711484306394}, {"name": "Investing", "slug": "investing", "groupId": "uVOFCm1wHEnCBkk8fwY2", "create...

["donald-trump", "wall-street-bets", "investing", "business"]

0.25

0.5

1719257035703

5WQYY8VpKgw3vnImi8jt

-which-professional-sport-do-you-fo

0

🏟️ Which professional sport do you follow most closely?

1714103940000

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

none

0

1

True

public

1711484311832

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’m doing some research for my new ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "🏟️ Major Sporting Events & Champions ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/-major-sporting-events", "class": "break-anywhere ...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714103940609

dglid

1715239770394

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

45

0

0.3333333333333333

1643941084707

0

[{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1711484312070}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711484312069}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", ...

["sports-betting", "sports-default", "culture-default", "entertainment"]

0.25

1715239769013

["86598322c883"]

0.5227851671213004

zrVPHMui3uhLX9EuMBff

{"NO": 267.85655163405784, "YES": 216.41644163670014}

0.5755302132676595

will-my-arxiv-submission-be-still-o

66.36517819562174

Will my arxiv submission be still on hold in a week from now?

1711789429902

pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2

cpmm-1

0

1.3685796128652008

True

play

CANCEL

public

1711485144934

mario pasquato

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FGQEkGw3psL.png?alt=media&token=87a2bdb6-ae8d-468d-b1ba-c95031b45b7c", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yesterday I sub...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711789429902

240

mariopasquato

1711789429902

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c

7

0

0.3333333333333333

1691028732594

0

[{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1711485145075}, {"name": "arxiv", "slug": "arxiv", "groupId": "2f9d7eda-2a3b-4197-805d-c4443d57b3c3", "createdTime": 1711485145084}, {"name": "Physics", "slug": "physics-a6878c3ad095", "groupId": "92473248-f029-4aca-bc...

["physics", "arxiv", "physics-a6878c3ad095", "cosmology", "astronomy"]

0.25

0.5

1711705440395

1711717501528

0.58

pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2

0.07443592992492362

fPZTasS1ja6dY30RZq5L

{"NO": 441.2122775561225, "YES": 1415.3432985704862}

0

will-the-combination-of-solar-eclip

4057.0191598944034

Will the combination of Solar Eclipse and Solar Flares result in catastrophic consequences?

1712605385890

Tcjj639yMYhe7U5Bv6eocDGYCLn2

cpmm-1

0

2.665196702668519

True

play

NO

public

1711485652383

Anna Cherry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Gravitational lensing of the moon focuses plasma into a Giant Death Laser", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Magnetic reconnection event EMP disrupt...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.024457283514268936}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712605385890

540

AnnaCherry

1712607233026

0

https://firebasestorage.…a10-a4e261428465

25

0

0.3333333333333333

1708606168379

0

[{"name": "Astronomy", "slug": "astronomy", "groupId": "RmJECKggoxP8lVO7JADZ", "createdTime": 1711485652589}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1711485652590}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime"...

["astronomy", "world-default", "science-default"]

0.25

0.5

1712592257101

1712607232540

0.02

Tcjj639yMYhe7U5Bv6eocDGYCLn2

0.6321768223237642

ho99Di8iAQzy2zDMVtLJ

{"NO": 745.7307800741761, "YES": 126.76012630002711}

1

will-google-alphabet-nasdaq-ticker-60a04cbf6cce

799.2592446311668

Will Google / Alphabet (NASDAQ Ticker: $GOOG) stock price close above $151.77 per share on March 29, 2024?

1711702385995

bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52

cpmm-1

0

1.7125698537532132

True

play

YES

public

1711485891909

Gonçalo M

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GOOG Weekly prediction", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if Alphabet stock closes above $151.77 USD on the closing price of 29 of March, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711702385995

260

GoncaloM

1711702385995

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1689968763486

0

[{"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHLx9TdW3uh6pttp", "createdTime": 1711485892057}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1711485892060}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": ...

["google-ef2cf716540e", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "ai-stocks", "technology-default", "goog"]

0.25

0.5

1711687241452

1711686399765

0.91

bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52

0.844828473308713

SobDnoyz31EGeh2HS1qK

{"NO": 5647.211110153633, "YES": 310.56702233954996}

1

-will-cocoa-prices-reach-6000metric

6018.138757822073

🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $6,000/metric ton in 2024?

1713630166373

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

cpmm-1

0

1.671443489717011

True

play

YES

public

1711485962180

Dan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2024/03/17/the-chocolate-crisis-is-here", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010000000000000009}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713630166373

540

DanMan314

1713630166373

0

https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a

23

0

0.3333333333333333

1673046794414

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1711487538792}, {"name": "Chocolate", "slug": "chocolate", "groupId": "96e399b4-2fc1-4083-999e-da4fd98f8f41", "createdTime": 1711487540996}]

["economics-default", "chocolate"]

0.25

0.5

1713167913740

1713603869286

0.99

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

0.7481724252243495

fEHup3Yk3mOU0At1ITSv

{"NO": 115.32367166247694, "YES": 1941.5319526149333}

0.1500000000000007

-will-cocoa-prices-reach-10000metri

55777.07164738197

🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $10,000/metric ton in 2024?

1738483140000

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

cpmm-1

0

8.237743803890933

False

basic

public

1711486010456

Dan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2024/03/17/the-chocolate-crisis-is-here", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 190.1395467152822, "platformFee": 151.00292667773076, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1045

DanMan314

1719202542298

0

https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a

57

0

0.3333333333333333

1673046794414

0

[{"name": "Chocolate", "slug": "chocolate", "groupId": "96e399b4-2fc1-4083-999e-da4fd98f8f41", "createdTime": 1711487521114}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1711487523204}]

["chocolate", "economics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1719202539023

1714649837821

0.1215453861612791

Wf5PYn5s4IrEijXKp8jD

{"NO": 171.6710718289975, "YES": 546.1153877104255}

0.04168135165252793

will-my-interview-with-cade-metz-on

353.8846122895746

Will "My Interview With Cade Metz on His Reporting ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711486183938

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": -4.163336342344337e-17, "month": -4.163336342344337e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

LessWrong

1711554428715

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

5

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711486184087}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1711554425397

0.7701728438949129

miHTnx4mPDi1M5dZ9PTR

{"NO": 6859.690431651592, "YES": 311.43352957125785}

1

a-new-gag-order-was-issued-on-trump

9287.768318406575

A new gag order was issued on Trump in Judge Merchan’s Manhattan Court. Will Trump violate the order?

1714559730916

91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1711486250658

Bruce

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.048706257399827, "platformFee": 9.048706257399827, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714559730916

690

Bruce54df

1714559730916

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c

33

0

0.3333333333333333

1697633597735

0

[{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1711486250806}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711486250815}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4...

["trial-of-the-century", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.25

0.5

1714496518252

1714486391532

0.99

91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1

0.13931875054670886

hWfE1rXYRSGnT7P6O4u9

{"NO": 119.5199660594961, "YES": 122.99999999999999}

0.1359127435221947

will-goodharts-law-inside-the-human

0

Will "Goodhart's Law inside the human mind" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711486433471

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LessWrong

1712061038926

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711486433666}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

0.46895155570152763

OhdPxbIo7ocEuxSpky3B

{"NO": 16.977820029998952, "YES": 1484.2633377348784}

0

will-is-it-cake-season-3-be-streame

1462.8326781079477

Will "Is It Cake" season 3 be streamed >50% as many hours as "Rebel Moon - Part Two" during its first week of release?

1713971826443

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

9.33855390594152

True

play

NO

public

1711486456797

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ource", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": the Netflix top 10 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "TV (English)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.netflix.com/t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.040597718416619126}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.751830990741752, "platformFee": 2.751830990741752, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713971826443

140

Ziddletwix

1713971826443

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

4

0

0.3333333333333333

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1711486456938}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1711486456947}, {"name": "Netflix", "slug": "netflix", "groupId": "eByiBh0GMczfxM1jBSdl",...

["culture-default", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "netflix", "tv", "television-film", "movies", "entertainment"]

0.25

0.5

1713971755777

1713971820451

0.01

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

IMBR5Q6pjXnvYMs4Nvdm

which-will-leave-the-netflix-top-10

13455.754682143574

Which will leave the Netflix Top 10 first: "3 Body Problem", or "Avatar the Last Airbender"?

1712695620943

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

2825b09e2f1f

public

1711487286178

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ource", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": the Netflix top 10 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "TV (English)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.netflix.com/t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712695620943

460

Ziddletwix

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

20

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "afde3a82b483", "prob": 0.0005968323183836535, "text": "3 Body Problem", "color": "#607d8b", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.883031322664465, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11525.721874030234, "textFts": "'3':1 'bodi':2 'problem':3", "contractId": "IMBR5Q6pjXnvYMs4Nvdm", "resolve...

0.3333333333333333

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711487286379}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1711487286384}, {"name": "Netflix", "slug": "netflix", "groupId": "eByiBh...

["entertainment", "television-film", "netflix", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "movies", "tv", "culture-default"]

0.25

1712695598799

1712695558743

{"2825b09e2f1f": 100}

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

True

0.230427712635703

5ntojl71lJmW6y8SRBKX

{"NO": 248.63975710940807, "YES": 518.8289372250954}

0.12548679886753594

will-manifold-do-an-airdrop-before

2499.77111295194

Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?

1830412740000

JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2

cpmm-1

0

6.089044875446847

False

play

public

1711487866950

gpt_news_headlines

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How they might do a crypto airdrop I'll leave up to the imagination. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Manifold launches a token and announces they have performed an ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.27084108726454925}

0

{"creatorFee": 31.173326624431578, "platformFee": 23.332284883382165, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

320.5

gpt_news_headlines

1718301227787

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1710363311888

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1711487867093}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1711487867100}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

0.5

1718301224193

1718220957892

0.13786223968610375

H3PcQnloGTm11MnLyBxE

{"NO": 118.46041363056251, "YES": 130}

0.1271811307110469

will-deep-deceptiveness-make-the-to

10

Will "Deep Deceptiveness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711488097844

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LessWrong

1712060269384

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711488098007}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1712060265973

0.11393617892790404

5ga3UEkaU8fdwzaTE7cm

{"NO": 147.1900016275693, "YES": 290.00000000000006}

0.06126599731482384

will-general-thoughts-on-secular-so

130

Will "General Thoughts on Secular Solstice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711488880001

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 3.469446951953614e-17, "week": 3.469446951953614e-17, "month": 3.469446951953614e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

LessWrong

1711555669053

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

3

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711488880158}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1711555662944

0.28551125474928574

X9iFrWDf6IJUyc0MQDlq

{"NO": 215.67142314458962, "YES": 302.7595170327855}

0.221582410190128

will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-when-net

734.6680515746546

Will Jimmy Carter be alive when Netanyahu loses power?

1830315540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711489044608

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.07243347321826607}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7597280311862162, "platformFee": 0.10094814177268624, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

260

strutheo

1719288669017

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1711489044779}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "createdTime": 1711489044783}, {"name": "Bibi Netanyahu", "slug": "bibi-netanyahu", "groupId": "7da32d37-6992-448c-b8ce-283...

["israel", "public-figures", "bibi-netanyahu", "death-markets", "israeli-politics", "jimmy-carter"]

0.25

0.5

True

1717657950519

1719288667469

zYIceTGpce3bBTZLpZx2

what-is-your-opinion-of-dr-k

0

What is your opinion of Dr. K? 🎮🧘

1712807940000

rK2EcetgPQYOME12Qt1xJDobuBD3

none

0

1

True

public

1711489543977

soweli Son

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dr. Alok Kanojia, known online as Dr. K, is a American psychiatrist and the co-founder of Healthy Gamer, dedication to mental health coaching. He is also the creator of the YouTube channel ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "HealthyGamerGG", "type": "tex...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712807940835

soweliSon

1711557089409

0

https://firebasestorage.…24c-0df4c1b1f734

40

0

0.3333333333333333

1697724392075

0

[{"name": "Suicide", "slug": "suicide", "groupId": "b308da90-f77b-447c-88f8-82af51c0393a", "createdTime": 1711489544123}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1711489544128}, {"name": "Psychology", "slug": "psychology", "groupId": "DolIVS56LrRzAlL23Tkd", "createdTime...

["suicide", "health", "psychology", "gaming", "destinygg", "youtube", "mental-health"]

0.25

1711557088648

["9422ab37d214"]

0.13605273871158116

2b6aQw2rRgIgv93IVXPR

{"NO": 117.07558797911341, "YES": 139.99999999999994}

0.11636710809591369

will-modern-transformers-are-agi-an

20

Will "Modern Transformers are AGI, and Human-Level" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711489815797

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LessWrong

1711490197478

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711489816258}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1711490194246

0.5690783484444751

xY68EBIeCqCgyCSZWHUm

{"NO": 327.1755902435839, "YES": 212.0590054917456}

0.6707820473918931

will-a-dog-walk-on-the-moon-before

245.30314590710566

Will a dog walk on the moon before the end of 2060?

2871781140000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711491371932

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "M171E9YvxriUKi2EoYFO", "label": "/strutheo/will-a-dog-walk-on-mars-before-the"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00587442488707135}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.27243225881515737, "platformFee": 0.15792249958635038, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

260

strutheo

1718930300036

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Space colonization", "slug": "space-colonization", "groupId": "9c2dd55b-2a49-42e3-be94-45b38d7b54c2", "createdTime": 1711491372173}, {"name": "Pets", "slug": "pets", "groupId": "d98c1d1e-8d87-4e3d-ab51-cdf710eed2d4", "createdTime": 1711491372174}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt1...

["space-colonization", "pets", "moon", "animals", "dog-markets", "space", "spacex", "dogs-cats", "space-exploration"]

0.25

0.5

1718930296934

1711504721475

eSsWaVUIlrCZ9APfILQJ

in-what-year-will-a-dog-walk-on-the

869.779545119984

In what year will the first dog walk on the Moon?

7289672340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711491411649

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xY68EBIeCqCgyCSZWHUm", "label": "/strutheo/will-a-dog-walk-on-the-moon-before"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5816732351593648, "platformFee": 0.034493155558506974, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1395

strutheo

1719598434635

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

21

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "9de837659c21", "prob": 0.00904341026726842, "text": "2040", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.289740501124617, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 908.3711491555548, "textFts": "'2040':1", "contractId": "eSsWaVUIlrCZ9APfILQJ", "createdTime": 1711491411650, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "we...

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Dogs & Cats", "slug": "dogs-cats", "groupId": "6zfcg4rHWwD11dCW9s2C", "createdTime": 1711491411923}, {"name": "Animals", "slug": "animals", "groupId": "f1b6760b-1baa-46e4-ab4f-a70259273eba", "createdTime": 1711491411927}, {"name": "Space colonization", "slug": "space-colonization", "groupId": "9c2dd55b-2a49-...

["dogs-cats", "animals", "space-colonization", "spacex", "space", "pets", "space-exploration", "moon"]

0.25

1719598429870

1711495729197

True

prob-desc

SyRrZOmebqOZvob63PeZ

which-bold-predictions-will-come-tr

1018.8753680809992

Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?

1731139140000

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711491569886

LukeW

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 \"bold\" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "ha...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3685561711482133, "platformFee": 0.39151659903317243, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1460

LukeW

1717699154539

0

https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8

12

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "97aa8448be66", "prob": 0.2808988764044944, "text": "No pitcher will reach 200 IP in the regular season", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.437500000000007, "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 60.00000000000001, "textFts": "'200':5 'ip':6 'pitcher':2 'reach':4 'regular':9 'season':10",...

0.3333333333333333

1645827259651

0

[{"name": "College Baseball", "slug": "college-baseball", "groupId": "44812d5b-88cb-49a0-9259-1bee397578f0", "createdTime": 1711491570151}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711491570162}, {"name": "⚾ Baseball", "slug": "baseball", "groupId": "786nRQzgVy...

["college-baseball", "sports-default", "baseball", "effectively-wild", "mlb"]

0.25

1717699151266

1717698198717

False

prob-desc

0.5151895756944784

L76cFfqEb1zgiIMZo4rq

{"NO": 194.37379823569563, "YES": 244.79536807616662}

0.45763618111877696

will-the-price-crude-oil-brent-exce

406.40811269786275

Will the price Crude Oil (Brent) exceed $100 per barrel by the end of 2024?

1735700340000

EN2YQcXAMygm38Q7WhqAQTduXeD2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711492160261

Gugra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.02135308021873, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

Gugra

1717618226001

0

https://firebasestorage.…133-a6660deb54e0

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1690905249039

0

[{"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1711492160472}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars", "groupId": "3d6624c3-2569-4fe1-8524-128952b07684", "createdTime": 1711492160473}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani",...

["finance", "economics-default", "oil"]

0.25

0.5

1717618222873

0.6440386460356002

aIzBIvTxtMMZynjbm80k

{"NO": 690.2217105130151, "YES": 1166.460885326935}

0.5170483564900098

will-silksong-be-released-before-th

2733.942175386224

Will SilkSong be released before the end of 2024?

1735685940000

Y1a0reHYflMTLhBlmm5GXu5dwh02

cpmm-1

0

9.6075472623996

False

basic

public

1711492507662

Ivan Vasylets (VannerName)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.10851385405397374, "month": -0.2011399390681199}

0

{"creatorFee": 31.344930873219905, "platformFee": 6.017602027772861, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IvanVasyletsVannerName

1720123062388

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKS8lJrJRwvYfN6ngJfwBYPuajcK2H2RFGLVsZk3n7hrw=s96-c

34

2

0.3333333333333333

1701162693876

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1711492507816}]

["gaming"]

0.25

0.5

1720123058937

JP2P4t7DOO9vRn9Dbxax

how-long-will-claude-3-opus-keep-it

38127.19233464058

How long will Claude 3 Opus keep its March 2024 lead of LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?

1712876092160

XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

basic

MKT

public

1711494133611

Henri Thunberg

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Months resolve to YES as soon as the full month has passed, and Claude 3 Opus is still on the top of the leaderboard. When Claude 3 Opus is no longer on top of the list, that month and all of the following alternatives, resolve to NO.", "type": "te...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712876092160

1935

HenriThunberg

1712877058657

0

https://firebasestorage.…fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b

31

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "bad025220328", "prob": 0.9997910511360897, "text": "March 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3661.409544836068, "userId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.765207253890432, "textFts": "'2024':2 'march':1", "contractId": "JP2P4t7DOO9vRn9Dbxax", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "XtJuqIcT...

0.3333333333333333

1665991918794

0

[{"name": "ELO Ratings", "slug": "elo-ratings", "groupId": "f111255c-c3ab-4fec-a336-026fdf3d7215", "createdTime": 1711494133852}, {"name": "Chatbot Arena Leaderboard", "slug": "chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "groupId": "fecd579f-4044-49c7-9b76-c3a16d222e53", "createdTime": 1711494133858}, {"name": "Claude 3", "slug": "cla...

["elo-ratings", "chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "claude-3", "gpt4", "gpt5", "openai", "google-gemini"]

0.25

1712876083001

1712877058147

0.01

XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1

False

CNwFyexCaOBPb6uQCWbA

what-will-be-true-about-the-francis

1565.4964114278691

What will be true about the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster by 2025? (Add Your Own Answer)

1735718340000

2BxXRsWcjIU3OTyyhyjac7yyy4P2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711494467072

Kakonomics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.10289461110782525, "platformFee": 0.10289461110782525, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1765

Yoae

1716128871724

0

https://firebasestorage.…9b9-ed72121a5535

32

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a4667b31e074", "prob": 0.05898403750585786, "text": "Container Ship was victim of cyber attack", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.640315073193722, "userId": "2BxXRsWcjIU3OTyyhyjac7yyy4P2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 313.3364682004706, "textFts": "'attack':7 'contain':1 'cyber':6 'ship':2 'victim':4", "contractId": "...

0.3333333333333333

1699261495830

0

[{"name": "Shipping", "slug": "shipping", "groupId": "SjhcRNwIiOeXXYR48zjO", "createdTime": 1711494467278}, {"name": "Francis Scott Key Bridge Disaster", "slug": "francis-scott-key-bridge-disaster", "groupId": "9e6054d0-501c-42fe-ad52-971baefba4e9", "createdTime": 1711494467272}, {"name": "Infrastructure", "slug": "inf...

["shipping", "francis-scott-key-bridge-disaster", "infrastructure"]

0.25

1715212686589

1716128869956

False

0.19486736377010905

fwm1llyr7Kzd9pNPvyFc

{"NO": 919.5392000945742, "YES": 1199.2968011890075}

0.15652614117326258

will-a-global-initiative-eradicate

641.9861139997091

Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030?

1925002740000

EN2YQcXAMygm38Q7WhqAQTduXeD2

cpmm-1

0

9.74958019277937

False

basic

public

1711494482916

Gugra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Smallpox is the only infectious disease to have been eradicated worldwide in Humans. It was officially declared eradicated by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1980, following a successful global vaccination campaign led by the WHO. ", "type":...

BINARY

{"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.42968881887224614, "platformFee": 0.42968881887224614, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gugra

1713891251400

0

https://firebasestorage.…133-a6660deb54e0

15

0

0.3333333333333333

1690905249039

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1711494483098}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1711494483094}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsV...

["science-default", "economics-default", "technology-default", "world-default", "health", "futurism", "malaria", "world-health-organization-who"]

0.25

0.5

1713891247516

07rLGwbNyQWPQUz4VEM6

new-york-giants-2025-week-one-danie

127.99999999999996

New York Giants 2025 Week One: Daniel Jones vs Brian Daboll

1759247940000

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711495066430

Josh Wilkes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves to what is true on Week One of the 2025 NFL Season. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve early if both Jones and Daboll have 'left' the team, or if Jones has le...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

JoshuaWilkes

1713326657437

0

https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8

3

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "67c79aca618b", "prob": 0.08846004630030299, "text": "Jones is not on roster; Daboll is not Head Coach", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.004726007017064, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 103.09408442151417, "textFts": "'coach':10 'dabol':6 'head':9 'jone':1 'roster':5", "contractI...

0.3333333333333333

1662006482315

0

[{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1711495066655}, {"name": "NFL Futures", "slug": "nfl-futures", "groupId": "470aae8a-05a8-4fee-8127-7e3fbd4db7c8", "createdTime": 1711495066657}, {"name": "OverReaction Monday", "slug": "overreaction-monday", "groupId": "0a11612e-6cbf-4...

["nfl", "nfl-futures", "overreaction-monday"]

0.25

1713326654108

True

0.3136534683140781

ssAPXKmYYbBMPp1o0prr

{"NO": 1022.6996673811574, "YES": 924.8707116665499}

0.33569314499483177

if-biden-wins-in-2024-will-kamala-k

1038.034702795631

If Biden wins in 2024, will Kamala Harris be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?

1846123140000

ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2

cpmm-1

0

9.567322364878487

False

basic

public

1711496603938

mint

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Joe Biden wins the 2024 Presidential Election, and Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party nominee for President in 2028, resolves YES. If Biden wins but Harris is not the 2028 nominee, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.0043068550051681975, "month": -0.15772419472289262}

0

{"creatorFee": 31.31229221528303, "platformFee": 0.5066581733784825, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

mint

1720120078249

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c1-5baf736896c2

27

1

0.3333333333333333

1697647723543

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711496604237}, {"name": "Kamala Harris", "slug": "kamala-harris", "groupId": "uOOw13IV2gNZPhwsPUvH", "createdTime": 1711496604239}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-electio...

["us-politics", "kamala-harris", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.25

0.5

1720120075081

1711556467288

XPe7XGBBWaIETgLsqDVp

what-is-the-cryptic-message-about-d

3065.5600971815293

What is the President's cryptic message about "difficult, direct threats" to Serbia regarding? [ADD RESPONSES]

1714103940000

ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711497110575

mint

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any response which is widely regarded as true in 30 days will resolve YES. Responses which are regarded as false will resolve NO. Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1772767451945549901"}}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.088720488178551, "platformFee": 4.088720488178551, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714104687666

770

mint

1714106924492

0

https://firebasestorage.…6c1-5baf736896c2

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "793832197087", "prob": 0.02, "text": "A country or entity will declare war on Serbia", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.87212829194462, "userId": "ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 569.0988854986297, "textFts": "'countri':2 'declar':6 'entiti':4 'serbia':9 'war':7", "contractId": "XPe7XGBBWaIE...

1

0.3333333333333333

1697647723543

0

[{"name": "Serbia", "slug": "serbia", "groupId": "c070a3d2-d119-4b26-8ec4-aa0959565f77", "createdTime": 1711497110871}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1711497110882}]

["serbia", "geopolitics"]

0.25

1714057229916

1714106923557

0.01

ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2

False

0.2291873124462289

qYxIqkmBND6Sj3HFkkMg

{"NO": 919.2829631586809, "YES": 1208.5645523318826}

0.1844475786272695

will-a-dog-walk-on-the-moon-before-41f386ab705e

533.5823281190918

Will a dog walk on the moon before a human walks on Mars?

4133998740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.665826573077716

False

basic

public

1711497767071

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "eSsWaVUIlrCZ9APfILQJ", "label": "/strutheo/in-what-year-will-a-dog-walk-on-the"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8520290988619401, "platformFee": 0.14738986720379144, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1717067664642

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

23

0

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1711497767329}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1711497767331}, {"name": "🌙 Moon", "slug": "moon", "groupId": "mcSfQitoDEt19DoPDBJc", "createdTime": ...

["space-exploration", "space", "moon", "animals", "pets", "space-colonization", "mars", "spacex", "dogs-cats", "science-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717067661170

1711497903316

0DFYbWGiNYdU0CvFiaxi

wholl-win-the-2028-republican-prima

310.82141555703237

Who’ll win the 2028 Republican primary?

1711549416859

FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711498289135

Liam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711549416859

445

Liam2024Election

1711636273323

0

https://firebasestorage.…5b7-9bfc5f5c7bf3

12

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "555a0fca2e04", "prob": 0.16, "text": "Nikki Haley", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.140625, "userId": "FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 100, "textFts": "'haley':2 'nikki':1", "contractId": "0DFYbWGiNYdU0CvFiaxi", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1", "created...

0.3333333333333333

1711498117629

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1711498289341}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1711498289338}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", ...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "world-default", "us-politics", "2024-us-election"]

0.25

1711546207123

1711636272422

0.63

FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1

False

7VQCUjSkZtK7qDe7nPFF

lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-49

250

[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 49)

1711582893443

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711498400876

komplexkonjugat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711583555185

125

komplexkonjugat

1711584600773

0

https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "dc89af8ad80a", "prob": 0.91, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 275, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.272727272727252, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson':5", "contract...

0.3333333333333333

1698548141721

0

[{"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1711498401086}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1711498401091}]

["manifoldplaysciv6", "gaming"]

0.25

1711508677789

1711584600193

0.91

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

False

td7YHREmlUE1Aq83a32o

will-trump-be-convicted-before-the

155.32931620104026

Will Trump be convicted before the election?

1711549398857

FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711498441709

Liam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711549398857

340

Liam2024Election

1711549398857

0

https://firebasestorage.…5b7-9bfc5f5c7bf3

11

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "2fb18af410ed", "prob": 0.6810463559268594, "text": "Yes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 313.9732142158501, "userId": "FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147.04270853812037, "textFts": "'yes':1", "contractId": "td7YHREmlUE1Aq83a32o", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZx...

0.3333333333333333

1711498117629

0

[{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1711498441932}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1711498441936}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqo...

["trump-indictments", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "magaland"]

0.25

1711546588794

1711533848358

0.45

FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1

False

0.6796443086390617

iNgnYPhSJonrD4RTH8so

{"NO": 230.82992896891017, "YES": 1958.2897551641765}

0

will-karen-read-be-found-not-guilty

5227.060175134149

Will Karen Read be found NOT GUILTY on all the crimes she is charged with?

1719859388890

IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3

cpmm-1

0

9.471770755567551

True

basic

NO

public

1711498593463

Ken Michaels

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.axios.com/local/boston/2024/03/07/karen-read-murder-case-canton-protests", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.axios.com/local/boston/2024/03/07/karen-read-murder-case-canton-protests", "class": "br...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.6060672920401012, "month": -0.7738710882206314}

0

{"creatorFee": 110.20518525132802, "platformFee": 1.678335338925161, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719859388890

1000

kenmichaels

1719865686356

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9

21

1

0.3333333333333333

1644799318130

0

[{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1711498593698}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1711498593697}, {"name": "Law and Crime", "slug": "law-and-crime", "groupId": "5bfaa7f5-f5b9-445f-9ed0-7a3b7792d1c6", "crea...

["crime", "law-order", "law-and-crime"]

0.25

0.5

1719855297442

1719865685281

0.2

IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3

LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf

what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal

10059.92608335408

What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore?

1722650460000

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711498755486

Dan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/key-bridge-collapse-baltimore-what-to-know.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/26/us/key-bridge-collapse-baltimore-what-to-know.html", "class": "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 13.967650406296885, "platformFee": 0.14624157647568475, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

4305

DanMan314

1717384736127

0

https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a

101

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8fb307ff7a25", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Sabotage", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.595505315521033, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 547.0680323208443, "textFts": "'sabotag':1", "contractId": "LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", ...

1

0.3333333333333333

1673046794414

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711500368793}]

["us-politics"]

0.25

1717239946823

1717237653544

False

liquidity

0.636708302579533

dnQP6wym1pdCtl6CdFXS

{"NO": 577.5346418459247, "YES": 100.10694239580077}

1

will-for-all-mankind-be-renewed-for

648.0736499839898

Will For All Mankind be renewed for a 5th season?

1713472937275

o1o3gDUeotMdWMiNZhX8gjEXa8C2

cpmm-1

0

2.081389617281391

True

play

YES

public

1711498912566

SEEL_dev `

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.14000000000000046}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.361596726871271, "platformFee": 1.361596726871271, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1713472937275

200

SEEL_dev

1713472937275

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJPXODoKf5hJBq3HQJ_t1_JtV7DZq32K8vlTco3LIN1gQ=s96-c

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1706321188506

0

[{"name": "Apple TV+", "slug": "apple-tv", "groupId": "26932c42-ae65-470d-a9cf-42a842c5aaee", "createdTime": 1711498912712}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "createdTime": 1711498912715}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1...

["apple-tv", "space-exploration", "space"]

0.25

0.5

1713472927798

0.91

o1o3gDUeotMdWMiNZhX8gjEXa8C2

0.6423488567116427

iQe9HXlId9YUs7rTbinM

{"NO": 315.4626779372196, "YES": 158.9003640283368}

0.7809714507006681

will-there-be-a-publicized-legal-di

843.2962124505198

Will there be a publicized legal dispute between Ronna McDaniel and NBC News in 2024?

1735718340000

Kh8RxHF4w5Ove09idxV3XGMve3A2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711498952584

Tychon Notos

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, by 12/31/2024, a publicized legal dispute between Ronna McDaniel and NBC News is reported by at least two credible news sources...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

TychonNotos

1712535387583

0

https://firebasestorage.…bea-63c085374a44

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1676640996388

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711498952749}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1711498952737}]

["us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.25

0.5

1712535384060

1712252601397

nG6QmKgyGYf3LDto7k44

when-will-world-war-3-begin

2273.1109117002266

When will world war 3 begin?

1711549387259

FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

basic

MKT

public

1711499125829

Liam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711549387259

1095

Liam2024Election

1711549387259

0

https://firebasestorage.…5b7-9bfc5f5c7bf3

22

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "707259e460b", "prob": 0.29677553273792256, "text": "Never", "index": 0, "poolNo": 81.30776959530782, "userId": "FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 192.66282644809758, "textFts": "'never':1", "contractId": "nG6QmKgyGYf3LDto7k44", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZx...

0.3333333333333333

1711498117629

0

[{"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1711499126020}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1711499126016}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTi...

["geopolitics", "china", "us-politics", "politics-default", "worldwar", "world-default", "wars", "russia", "germany"]

0.25

1711549056206

1711534480031

0.09

FT0QZbmOSabA0gCfDiOZZxR6Ycu1

False

0.448097357242032

0exZhiSD04t5rHjdmeiw

{"NO": 178.7500504987868, "YES": 434.647094115533}

0.25

will-i-get-into-the-university-of-c

1841.0372634464932

Will I get into the University of Cambridge for Mathematics in 2025?

1715370581772

J2KdjOrY6nc1OdaFPtZfLAHcxib2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1711499405680

crunkky

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9239171691858394, "platformFee": 0.9239171691858394, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715370581772

280

crunkky

1715394935383

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI0yFP8MeoDhc13Y1lZxXqoK882T2DEW-XxuV-5lI1lAPE=s96-c

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1711498391686

0

[{"name": "College Admissions", "slug": "college-admissions", "groupId": "1dyUqp3vyXcGeRwiCl3S", "createdTime": 1711499405865}, {"name": "Colleges & Universities", "slug": "colleges-universities", "groupId": "3qsRSyWVqskVH54fz1CR", "createdTime": 1711499405867}]

["college-admissions", "colleges-universities"]

0.25

0.5

1715370549628

1715394933961

0.25

J2KdjOrY6nc1OdaFPtZfLAHcxib2

Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv

agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708

292374.5087423897

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

2531545140000

8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.485611986159496

False

plus

public

1711499852781

Manifold AI

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the year in which an AI system exists which is capable of passing a high quality, adversarial Turing test. It is used for the Big Clock on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "manifold.markets/ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"t...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 6060.934839684931, "platformFee": 6060.934839684931, "liquidityFee": 0}

6506.56675883443

29910

ManifoldAI

1720245169147

0

https://firebasestorage.…924-001fe00f6330

820

15

DISABLED

[{"id": "2cdb91507b0d", "prob": 0.15016517069539742, "text": "2024-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1131.6611777799833, "userId": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6404.44837771409, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2024':1", "contractId": "Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv", "createdTime": 1711499852781, "probChanges":...

0.3333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6fdd83122a90.jpg

1711068181629

0

[{"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1711499853841}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1711499853856}]

["agi", "ai"]

0.25

1720245165217

1720236441443

True

0.3182391559770547

o5lGlCaKGFoepaSGruZU

{"NO": 948.917594332687, "YES": 1089.3959903669581}

0.2890643711983321

will-we-learn-vegapunk-had-more-tha

357.8173277182346

Will we learn Vegapunk had more than 6 Satellites?

1735707540000

k9gKj9BgTLN5tkqYztHeNoSpwyl1

cpmm-1

0

9.591254301468119

False

basic

public

1711499862552

OnePieceExplained

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lot of fun theories going around lately that Vegapunk has hidden satellites somewhere or that certain characters are actually satellites. I don't put much stock into those theories myself, but there could be a chance that there is another out there...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.822674575369865, "platformFee": 0.09742270648353335, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

OnePieceExplained

1717441141223

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKd038D54K0h3bGOxOcPm17SOGjDnXGsU_EtFXXnf8YXQ=s96-c

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1708470053991

0

[{"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1711499862703}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711499862790}, {"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpV...

["anime", "entertainment", "one-piece-stocks", "one-piece-theories", "manga"]

0.25

0.5

1717441138096

0.1954448103799036

3kRX9byDlXZqTHbWlz5y

{"NO": 903.6085626344473, "YES": 1675.6765145662134}

0.115823674695296

will-the-usa-army-be-back-to-afghan

2834.726601835025

Will the USA army be back to Afghan in 2025?

1767163800000

tb37LeCVPGPwEHCl02kENfsqUV43

cpmm-1

0

9.73631807070546

False

basic

public

1711500400095

Iyoha Gideon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7790819713144048, "platformFee": 1.7790819713144048, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1055

IyohaGideon

1713882813260

0

https://firebasestorage.…104-baf5b439ff64

48

0

2

0.3333333333333333

1711325914777

0

[{"name": "Afghanistan", "slug": "afghanistan", "groupId": "037a3f16-463e-49f6-86b5-28fe114a3def", "createdTime": 1711500400244}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1711500400249}]

["afghanistan", "world-default"]

0.25

0.5

1713882809791

1712698181853

tb37LeCVPGPwEHCl02kENfsqUV43

0.25437825634278466

sgyWjGvBvXLYC4nLgXah

{"NO": 102.84707900230265, "YES": 499.5943616789654}

0.06562327024074756

if-i-remain-living-in-canada-will-i

394

If I remain living in Canada, will I be subject to any government sanction on speech before 2027?

1798876740000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711500463584

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.thefp.com/p/hate-speech-laws-free-speect-first-amendment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.thefp.com/p/hate-speech-laws-free-speect-first-amendment", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hov...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.02317844195437609, "platformFee": 0.02317844195437609, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

IsaacKing

1714582974092

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1646352460573

0

[{"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1711500463766}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1711500463780}, {"name": "Canadian Politics", "slug": "canadian-politics", "groupId": "XUjgI120xjTU5n382rWL", "createdTime": ...

["canada", "personal", "canadian-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1714582970703

1712689944619

yvLFU0vF3j7H3LQrtO78

who-is-the-more-capable-president-t

131.0784937512939

Who is the more capable president to handle the economy

1711533977813

yCggQrr7nahHiSiA1sR6sWYob4r1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711500537900

Liamtho

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711533977813

220

WspLiamshere

1711539712765

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKPq63vndxmNRMnu9txQy3cM8WUbTySpc8OegXHe0CB=s96-c

7

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "4752e294c36c", "prob": 0.71, "text": "Joe Biden (Democrat)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 145.243825430126, "userId": "yCggQrr7nahHiSiA1sR6sWYob4r1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 59.34299389015101, "textFts": "'biden':2 'democrat':3 'joe':1", "contractId": "yvLFU0vF3j7H3LQrtO78", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId":...

0.3333333333333333

1711500216160

0

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1711500538112}, {"name": "🇷🇺 Russia", "slug": "russia", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1711500538118}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 171150053...

["ukraine", "russia", "uk-politics", "israel", "us-politics", "ukrainerussia-war", "geopolitics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "world-default", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"]

0.25

1711521190735

1711539712258

0.71

yCggQrr7nahHiSiA1sR6sWYob4r1

False

0.08059561181158789

Ai9eC1p77AwU2UGamECl

{"NO": 847.2575431490498, "YES": 2635.8375568995175}

0.027405236449134354

was-the-francis-scott-key-bridge-de

1939.3482188132084

Was the Francis Scott Key Bridge deliberately hit by the Dali cargo ship?

1735711140000

HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2

cpmm-1

0

10.566619744796405

False

basic

public

1711500704697

Noah

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if the Francis Scott Key Bridge collision was a deliberate act as determined by a consensus of media source by the end of the year. Deliberate acts count both people on and off the ship (eg. cyberattack), and delibera...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0005596103723582019}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.09670401874622897, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Noah1

1718456665659

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c

20

0

0.3333333333333333

1699627416651

0

[{"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1711500704860}, {"name": "Shipping", "slug": "shipping", "groupId": "SjhcRNwIiOeXXYR48zjO", "createdTime": 1711500704865}, {"name": "Francis Scott Key Bridge Disaster", "slug": "francis-scott-key-bridge-disaster", "groupId": "...

["terrorism", "shipping", "francis-scott-key-bridge-disaster"]

0.25

0.5

1718456662603

dM2qT9zzQ8RSE6zqtq2Q

live-what-will-happen-at-tonights-c-2d1600fd4683

9550.01353757013

🔴LIVE: What will happen at tonight's Coolfold poker night [ADD RESPONSES]

1711515579225

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711501057327

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711515579225

735

strutheo

1711515579225

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "85ba52874125", "prob": 0.37, "text": "chris gets a full house ( all night)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.01190042984534, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 112.6983551925926, "textFts": "'chris':1 'full':4 'get':2 'hous':5 'night':7", "contractId": "dM2qT9zzQ8RSE6zqtq2Q", "reso...

0.3333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1711501057571}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1711501057579}, {"name": "Manifold TV", "slug": "manifold-tv", "groupId": "d6ab3e28-0306-4762-a47a-dd678785315f...

["youtube", "manifold-users", "manifold-tv", "manifold-6748e065087e", "live-betting", "livestreaming", "poker", "coolfold"]

0.25

1711515483826

1711506988521

0.37

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

False

If44mQWbhU11XAQzKtFW

what-will-happen-at-minerva-hiring

14057.273008892978

What will happen at The Hiring Hackathon?

1712020782551

DHJfDBqL8Mc8HXSdyQoNdcoNcIm1

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

basic

MKT

public

1711501930638

Arsenii Iatskar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a market for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Hiring Hackathon", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://lu.ma/minerva_event", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decora...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712020792738

4015

iatskar

1712020879014

0

https://firebasestorage.…855-31bdf990b6a4

36

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "92fb09080dca", "prob": 0.31, "text": "120+ Minervans will be hacking", "index": 0, "poolNo": 157.96167672193442, "userId": "DHJfDBqL8Mc8HXSdyQoNdcoNcIm1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 356.54232300705434, "textFts": "'120':1 'hack':5 'minervan':2", "contractId": "If44mQWbhU11XAQzKtFW", "resolution": "CANCEL", "...

0.3333333333333333

1694557353759

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711501930898}, {"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1711501930903}]

["technology-default", "sf-events"]

0.25

1711942362749

1711686795711

0.4

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

False

0.4829072802226608

FtjyX3OqKobsPbTqAZ8F

{"NO": 218.0052639378366, "YES": 181.93405605087094}

0.5280897386123354

will-shiki-return-in-the-main-story

74.35148572512225

Will Shiki return in the main story?

1735707540000

k9gKj9BgTLN5tkqYztHeNoSpwyl1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711502248422

OnePieceExplained

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We've seen a few references to Shiki the Golden Lion across the series, but his on-page appearances have mostly been relegated to flashbacks. In Chapter 0, we learned he has had a twenty-year plan in motion, which would roughly line up with where w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023465082885985367}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.49446932524805676, "platformFee": 0.16700949545327845, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

OnePieceExplained

1718793089674

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKd038D54K0h3bGOxOcPm17SOGjDnXGsU_EtFXXnf8YXQ=s96-c

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1708470053991

0

[{"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1711502248633}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1711502248631}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv...

["one-piece-stocks", "manga", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "anime"]

0.25

0.5

1718793086624

XXo4f8MAeP1Oy9hTAQoo

what-type-of-water-crossing-will-re

442.88528182333454

What type of water crossing will replace the FSK Bridge in Baltimore?

1925009940000

XKa2QecvfKW8eGR6d5XoAIBwqVG3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711504017427

justanotherstrange

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is for the final product. If they somehow build a temporary bridge first or something like that, it won't count. It's about the final crossing design.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.47809696427019, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

justanotherstrange

1718917021831

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJxmtmGqI7ApcG1Xgg73Ah73zc_WAP_V1YdwY7op124=s96-c

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "e65a2980886f", "prob": 0.02456859342692273, "text": "Arch bridge", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.57890112320922, "userId": "XKa2QecvfKW8eGR6d5XoAIBwqVG3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 499.4121968052958, "textFts": "'arch':1 'bridg':2", "contractId": "XXo4f8MAeP1Oy9hTAQoo", "createdTime": 1711504017427, "probChanges...

0.3333333333333333

1700237718402

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711504017684}, {"name": "Engineering", "slug": "engineering", "groupId": "49148d79-ce4e-4856-962c-3f90256abeab", "createdTime": 1711504017687}, {"name": "Francis Scott Key Bridge Disaster", "slug": "francis-scott-key...

["us-politics", "engineering", "francis-scott-key-bridge-disaster"]

0.25

1718917017264

1711508045718

True

0.5428596109579981

xcIG0VfK2xea5JA4KVdt

{"NO": 200.23103838435298, "YES": 130.8859104617307}

0.6449710422832967

will-the-fsk-bridge-replacement-hav

59.46580335177726

Will the FSK Bridge replacement have two separate structures for the two directions of travel?

2240629140000

XKa2QecvfKW8eGR6d5XoAIBwqVG3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711504290159

justanotherstrange

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve when there is a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "confirmed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " plan.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.03705861432662727}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.431330535812219, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

justanotherstrange

1718932507540

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJxmtmGqI7ApcG1Xgg73Ah73zc_WAP_V1YdwY7op124=s96-c

5

0

0.3333333333333333

1700237718402

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711504290309}, {"name": "Engineering", "slug": "engineering", "groupId": "49148d79-ce4e-4856-962c-3f90256abeab", "createdTime": 1711504290311}]

["us-politics", "engineering"]

0.25

0.5

1718932504428

0.5056475000932107

OSTJM4gA8vUQnAdxOTQ9

{"NO": 123.92985250008789, "YES": 95.21190378213916}

0

will-the-previews-for-dune-2-be-lon

70

Will the previews for Dune 2 be longer than 25 minutes?

1711506397100

ySWtfaLjLmYBerAWNlAPuIE3xsF2

cpmm-1

0

2.57623281832715

True

play

NO

public

1711504623224

Oscar Romanko

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711506397100

120

OscarRomanko

1711506397100

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKFp3gFPgTBzDLLTBMa_r4LEo1lKWd7f2jmt-0lZ28SSfA=s96-c

2

0

0.3333333333333333

1706834898070

0

[{"name": "Dune", "slug": "dune", "groupId": "a7583e52-038a-4fe6-9b4f-1ee360d6889e", "createdTime": 1711504623375}]

["dune"]

0.25

0.5

1711504893679

1711504788640

0.57

ySWtfaLjLmYBerAWNlAPuIE3xsF2

Vx3BTkBlAW6TwDYO6HfE

x-copies-sold-of-trumps-god-bless-t

436.9538594390251

X copies sold of Trump's God Bless The USA Bible before EOY 2024?

1738483140000

XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711504832000

Henri Thunberg

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES for any number as it is passed by credible reporting.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NO for numbers that haven't been confirmed/suspected by market close February 2025.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hard...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HenriThunberg

1712469272001

0

https://firebasestorage.…fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b

16

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e70e5324ae56", "prob": 0.6517421700770032, "text": "≥100,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 109.61758138722792, "userId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 58.57405392505613, "textFts": "'000':2 '100':1", "contractId": "Vx3BTkBlAW6TwDYO6HfE", "createdTime": 1711504832001, "probChanges": {"d...

0.3333333333333333

1665991918794

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711504832238}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1711504832261}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "c...

["us-politics", "donald-trump", "politics-default"]

0.25

1712469268536

False

prob-desc

0.8239233776606055

ChiwPbZs98oZr9E86exx

{"NO": 7116.43885448108, "YES": 56.78016237325311}

1

-will-newcastle-beat-west-ham-durin

14910.879773274517

⚽ Will Newcastle beat West Ham during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711812600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.448401239300923

True

play

YES

public

1711505547479

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Newcastle vs West Ham", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 12:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competitio...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711816261138

460

FranklinBaldo

1711816266584

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

24

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505547663}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505547666}]

["premiere-league", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711810083314

1711816265863

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.2967410778476201

WY7zVP5otvLhAOcyTrza

{"NO": 37.01174465659289, "YES": 5156.967144516102}

0

-will-getafe-beat-sevilla-during-re

7043.76979942629

⚽ Will Getafe beat Sevilla during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? La Liga 🇪🇸

1711814400000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.74234231253908

True

play

NO

public

1711505552896

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Getafe vs Sevilla", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: L...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711816266157

240

FranklinBaldo

1711816268600

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

11

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505553171}, {"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1711505553189}]

["soccer", "la-liga"]

0.25

0.5

1711814087878

1711816267922

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.5985665150127711

HFkV4vuSs3Gd23NYS1AX

{"NO": 2.5420347920982067, "YES": 2990.4814143381464}

0

-will-rb-leipzig-beat-fsv-mainz-05

3047

⚽ Will RB Leipzig beat FSV Mainz 05 during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1711816268624

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.6929099851841025

True

play

NO

public

1711505555429

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Compe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711816268624

200

FranklinBaldo

1711816271690

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1711505555635}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505555666}]

["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711816268435

1711816269833

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.631561656181714

z5HY3LCl7xPsGhHms2qO

{"NO": 5620.575110809539, "YES": 24.71795372941915}

1

-will-bayer-leverkusen-beat-1899-ho

8004.777581962137

⚽ Will Bayer Leverkusen beat 1899 Hoffenheim during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1711816270521

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.5768823153878366

True

play

YES

public

1711505557814

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Bayer Leverkusen vs 1899 Hoffenheim", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711816270521

320

FranklinBaldo

1711816273476

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

15

0

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1711505558023}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505558025}]

["bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711816270284

1711816271917

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

OhMhGBUE9Z50GVGbIk5N

fed-funds-rate-total-basis-points-c

3596.772395016362

Interest rate cuts: total basis points of cuts in 2024

1735718340000

PK13zhGnApOoa4RPss0gF4hmiFO2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711505559063

turtlepurple

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is on net, so if it the EOY 2024 fed funds rate is the same as it is now, resolves as 0 even if this was reached by e.g. one rate cut and one rate raise ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 15.971489050100258, "platformFee": 6.4912566779143654, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1295

turtlepurple

1719166742321

0

https://firebasestorage.…4f5-1e47c9725ef3

34

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "3e0b3e70f1ef", "prob": 0.008622856305788934, "text": "<0 (rate goes up)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.434211202885699, "userId": "PK13zhGnApOoa4RPss0gF4hmiFO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 739.7467495729661, "textFts": "'0':1 'goe':3 'rate':2", "contractId": "OhMhGBUE9Z50GVGbIk5N", "createdTime": 1711505559064, "...

0.3333333333333333

1699993765566

0

[{"name": "Monetary Policy", "slug": "monetary-policy", "groupId": "oJ2sEwn985io95dLwJhp", "createdTime": 1711505559344}, {"name": "Federal reserve", "slug": "federal-reserve", "groupId": "Dtx5Ll2hayivzG8YPHbE", "createdTime": 1711505559355}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5...

["monetary-policy", "federal-reserve", "economics-default"]

0.25

1719166739091

True

0.4044799390940868

qRpU5jxFpmUCCyMN6G4i

{"NO": 12.353161853078177, "YES": 3982.7653148435234}

0

-will-eintracht-frankfurt-beat-unio

3934.1778208140336

⚽ Will Eintracht Frankfurt beat Union Berlin during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1711816272837

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.443965548197968

True

play

NO

public

1711505559485

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711816272837

240

FranklinBaldo

1711816275660

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505559684}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1711505559686}]

["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"]

0.25

0.5

1711816272487

1711816274367

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.3768399064424963

1hDFwMITwlzytdbuNbgl

{"NO": 30.483515468836913, "YES": 7455.302090311309}

0

-will-borussia-monchengladbach-beat

7939.640216786276

⚽ Will Borussia Monchengladbach beat SC Freiburg during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1711816274837

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.0146912650434867

True

play

NO

public

1711505561953

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Freiburg", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711816274837

280

FranklinBaldo

1711816277862

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

12

0

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505562162}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1711505562161}]

["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"]

0.25

0.5

1711816274618

1711816276639

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.429071010148581

MJqGuE5e2ck0NTwPpZDT

{"NO": 15.389510714366907, "YES": 5620.7339389979625}

0

-will-werder-bremen-beat-vfl-wolfsb

5855.680724189436

⚽ Will Werder Bremen beat VfL Wolfsburg during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1711816277047

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.6687391469493495

True

play

NO

public

1711505564797

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 C...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711816277047

220

FranklinBaldo

1711816280064

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

9

0

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505565086}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1711505565099}]

["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"]

0.25

0.5

1711816276853

1711816278315

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.8432742513834957

1Oyraj7pCRLOZGeMVxr7

{"NO": 4263.264339354884, "YES": 78.86337549182127}

1

-will-bournemouth-beat-everton-duri

6214.485017859714

⚽ Will Bournemouth beat Everton during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711821600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.612712310933102

True

play

YES

public

1711505567107

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Bournemouth vs Everton", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competiti...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832906024

400

FranklinBaldo

1711832909224

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

19

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505567285}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505567289}]

["premiere-league", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711817764182

1711832908655

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.18238112220860953

2hrbpdB3oqDpcVhR5cb7

{"NO": 22.70871848662581, "YES": 3782.920029752383}

0

-will-chelsea-beat-burnley-during-r

6497.827058514164

⚽ Will Chelsea beat Burnley during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711821600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

7.634297190501428

True

play

NO

public

1711505568982

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Chelsea vs Burnley", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832909051

360

FranklinBaldo

1711832911528

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

16

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505569169}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505569172}]

["soccer", "premiere-league"]

0.25

0.5

1711817891967

1711832910996

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.23106673293869948

MhuN0yD5lztJp7yyvGq6

{"NO": 83.28177183793773, "YES": 7758.303671972902}

0

-will-nottingham-forest-beat-crysta

8455.691227567526

⚽ Will Nottingham Forest beat Crystal Palace during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711821600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

2.8150708233914257

True

play

NO

public

1711505571165

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832911233

320

FranklinBaldo

1711832914487

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

16

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505571344}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505571343}]

["soccer", "premiere-league"]

0.25

0.5

1711817895081

1711832913703

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.14346016499812256

SF5N48EAmvWWLv3eWYFD

{"NO": 45.13544042545988, "YES": 7836.895000496964}

0

-will-sheffield-utd-beat-fulham-dur

12630.02118761992

⚽ Will Sheffield Utd beat Fulham during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711821600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

6.173290356138414

True

play

NO

public

1711505573043

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competit...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832913924

440

FranklinBaldo

1711832916709

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

22

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505573217}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505573221}]

["premiere-league", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711818151498

1711832916132

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.7660691360132249

91GhuAcJwo3QET5BGlrS

{"NO": 10257.851219610246, "YES": 119.29034552292329}

1

-will-tottenham-beat-luton-during-r

10863.51782635578

⚽ Will Tottenham beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711821600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

2.1272882598572864

True

play

YES

public

1711505575506

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Tottenham vs Luton", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832916398

440

FranklinBaldo

1711832918870

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

20

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505575673}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505575671}]

["soccer", "premiere-league"]

0.25

0.5

1711817934029

1711832918161

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.17312218437284718

7BYsPhoOo4HtvKHi0PcF

{"NO": 68.94809715697811, "YES": 8473.523790211393}

0

-will-almeria-beat-osasuna-during-r

9399.436078230892

⚽ Will Almeria beat Osasuna during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? La Liga 🇪🇸

1711822500000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.869504441074845

True

play

NO

public

1711505578165

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Almeria vs Osasuna", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:15", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition: ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832918444

260

FranklinBaldo

1711832928262

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

12

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505578372}, {"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1711505578374}]

["soccer", "la-liga"]

0.25

0.5

1711821978267

1711832927247

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.8498830455731303

G27tmEBOzQCp4s2fLQ3S

{"NO": 10010.780535762628, "YES": 113.62380278200791}

1

-will-aston-villa-beat-wolves-durin

12089.784510749032

⚽ Will Aston Villa beat Wolves during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711830600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

3.08133264276528

True

play

YES

public

1711505580416

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Aston Villa vs Wolves", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competitio...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832928080

380

FranklinBaldo

1711832932627

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

17

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505580601}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505580597}]

["premiere-league", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711830159090

1711832931944

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.10968415484591341

pmxlQWffpIXA06t3blbs

{"NO": 51.041025030556916, "YES": 4863.288704278213}

0

-will-valencia-beat-mallorca-during

4708

⚽ Will Valencia beat Mallorca during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? La Liga 🇪🇸

1711830600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

8.137412660804854

True

play

NO

public

1711505581981

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Valencia vs Mallorca", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competition...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832932165

240

FranklinBaldo

1711832934593

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

8

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505582149}, {"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1711505582164}]

["soccer", "la-liga"]

0.25

0.5

1711830168368

1711832934014

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.1066797476745317

3V9ub1s48BHE4yqmGEoh

{"NO": 95.9135999736644, "YES": 10326.409452737924}

0

-will-bayern-munich-beat-borussia-d

12171.621345405367

⚽ Will Bayern Munich beat Borussia Dortmund during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪

1711830600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

4.868590152229654

True

play

NO

public

1711505584084

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711832934321

520

FranklinBaldo

1711832937090

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

24

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505584309}, {"name": "Bundesliga", "slug": "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2", "groupId": "7c53ccd3-1a40-41ca-bd88-dedac17a91a9", "createdTime": 1711505584306}]

["soccer", "bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2"]

0.25

0.5

1711830132890

1711832936271

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.7033471275067604

9xMqRuCZVBflHkII6Rqi

{"NO": 1756.3532150882945, "YES": 28.223708714884037}

1

-will-porto-velho-beat-barcelona-ro

1816.0628254726344

⚽ Will Porto Velho beat Barcelona RO during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Rondoniense 🇧🇷

1711837800000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

5.0133370296263

True

play

YES

public

1711505586202

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Porto Velho vs Barcelona RO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Comp...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711840719675

200

FranklinBaldo

1711840722564

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

8

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Campeonato Rondoniense", "slug": "campeonato-rondoniense", "groupId": "07d07566-98a4-453e-b14e-282a0c0ca11f", "createdTime": 1711505586429}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505586436}]

["campeonato-rondoniense", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711836203517

1711840721854

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.2748179446046961

uWIQgk2LDUduwqbMeiWo

{"NO": 111.65115439852508, "YES": 13394.246990814347}

0

-will-brentford-beat-manchester-uni

20243.388514442486

⚽ Will Brentford beat Manchester United during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧

1711839600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

1.7496951992639058

True

play

NO

public

1711505588083

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Brentford vs Manchester United", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 C...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711840722121

520

FranklinBaldo

1711840725168

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

23

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1711505588251}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505588247}]

["premiere-league", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711836078070

1711840724647

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

0.7804442889776128

pQG20tY4F4BKKgWu23ZA

{"NO": 10758.330593132432, "YES": 70.83865135443651}

1

-will-barcelona-beat-las-palmas-dur

10495.030838102304

⚽ Will Barcelona beat Las Palmas during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? La Liga 🇪🇸

1711839600000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-1

0

2.8352402483262447

True

play

YES

public

1711505590499

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Barcelona vs Las Palmas", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Competit...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711840724849

280

FranklinBaldo

1711840726695

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

10

0

1

0.3333333333333333

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "La Liga", "slug": "la-liga", "groupId": "7tVich7PzeBIyTTzP9o9", "createdTime": 1711505590663}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1711505590660}]

["la-liga", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1711836513643

1711840726137

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

ChbegbaMSqyZtuLZNhug

what-would-i-do-for-the-gtec-brainc

163.05772405591946

What would I do for the g.tec brain-computer interface spring school 2024?

1714719540000

lfI3B8MU3cThgSSe4Ps81pu6yvx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1711506508443

Yoyo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "hey! My name is Yoyo and I am trying to gain depth in brain-computer interfaces by building challenging projects :)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "last year I attended the intensive comp neur...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715654403353

485

vanillymandelic

1714719540000

0

https://firebasestorage.…5a8-3d73b4ebde40

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a2bed808be08", "prob": 0.52, "text": "Run an irl watch party with 3+ enthusiasts in total ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 46.00000000000001, "userId": "lfI3B8MU3cThgSSe4Ps81pu6yvx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.529585798816576, "textFts": "'3':7 'enthusiast':8 'irl':3 'parti':5 'run':1 'total':10 'watch':4", "con...

3

0.3333333333333333

1694745376102

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1711506508655}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1711506508656}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej",...

["science-default", "world-default", "technology-default", "braincomputer-interface"]

0.25

1712054312411

0.5

lfI3B8MU3cThgSSe4Ps81pu6yvx2

False

e3uhSJRol1cChWw1D3QP

what-will-be-the-most-astonishing-a

4389.833219287497

What will be the most astonishing and talked about update at WWDC24?

1718216940000

DXfd3PJ8oRXl1EzfEGICgjC5quM2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1711507332092

Rajesh Ranjan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 46.63162316920244, "platformFee": 0.7801394270333267, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719945142739

1000

RajeshRanjan

1719948443357

0

https://storage.googleap…EGICgjC5quM2.png

34

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "5b5df44279df", "prob": 0.05, "text": "Vision pro", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.657661184470072, "userId": "DXfd3PJ8oRXl1EzfEGICgjC5quM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 566.8015297413729, "textFts": "'pro':2 'vision':1", "contractId": "e3uhSJRol1cChWw1D3QP", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4...

1

0.3333333333333333

1711213098797

0

[{"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927", "createdTime": 1711507332320}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1711507332330}]

["-wwdc-2024", "technology-default"]

0.25

1718173657718

1719948441639

0.07

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

False

lt5VgXNEHaKBj0wac6sC

did-hans-neimann-cheat-in-his-victo

0

Did Hans Neimann cheat in his victory over Magnus Carlsen?

rroLgrZYQHQNhRNVx9ON7QrrPx13

none

0

1000000

False

public

1711508879745

Chris

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

ChrisCameron

1711508879898

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDtPZOUx5wmveEeilYadudgspCCp32TUVyi7o8GFcm=s96-c

13

0

0.3333333333333333

1697577418186

0

[{"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1711508879898}]

["chess"]

0.25

0.29275119069251054

rUryZ6qvQJ0qJ1sz7zeQ

{"NO": 50.47308129959087, "YES": 4104.512167663808}

0

will-shogun-episode-7-a-stick-of-ti

3942.0548746444133

Will Shogun Episode 7 ∙ "A Stick of Time" ∙ have a 9.0 or better iMDB rating?

1712469600000

wf1FnYlBeYU5sGaGRsMhXvNWXv82

cpmm-1

0

3.5978777710528416

True

play

NO

public

1711509643768

Dan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Episode Airs 4/2/2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will resolve with the iMDB rating listed on 4/7/2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00506430355027722}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712469913725

289.75

cloontia

1712469600000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLFYn6-3gJv7Zxvjj_BIY7UaZkXTWjYrn1xpD0KOjnlA4g=s96-c

11

0

0.3333333333333333

1696860314359

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1711509643945}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1711509643977}, {"name": "Shogun", "slug": "shogun-48d1578c348e", "groupId": "958543fd-6d57-40fd-ae58-01...

["tv", "entertainment", "shogun-48d1578c348e", "hulu", "japan"]

0.25

0.5

1712464236716

1711586153000

0.01

wf1FnYlBeYU5sGaGRsMhXvNWXv82

0.7133862092294853

owjERka2fP8vCHbcjW3o

{"NO": 4113.57803838894, "YES": 138.0580098715222}

1

will-numeric-markets-be-reenabled-b

6445.976723538125

Will numeric markets be reenabled by EOD Sunday?

1711753383983

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

cpmm-1

0

1.8401836408887409

True

play

YES

public

1711510913027

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Working on them again this week!", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711753383983

400

ian

1711756080159

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

16

0

0.3333333333333333

1644802294323

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1711510913166}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.25

0.5

1711753378477

1711756079700

0.99

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

0.43271458269749874

gHImTrbTJVbzOymqnkSt

{"NO": 226.44279903005784, "YES": 362.44992208900567}

0.32274656658254874

f1-2024-will-there-be-a-pit-stop-lo

211

F1 2024: Will there be a pit stop longer than 1:14.733 this season?

1733835540000

YDBf91CxCwcFYGR05xghoKCwjg03

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711512438459

RichardK

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The slowest pit stop this year is 1:14.733 for Valtteri Bottas in Bahrain.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2024/races/1229/bahrain/pit-stop-summary.html", "type": "text", "ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.021390612410157384}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.380613505426466, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

280.25

RichardK

1719156891996

0

https://firebasestorage.…d7d-559df8e05caf

10

0

0.3333333333333333

1658538462961

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1711512438661}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1711512438663}]

["sports-default", "formula-1"]

0.25

0.5

1719156888875

lKuAamj7hpBQp4oZHhgP

how-will-djt-move-if-trump-winslose

2459.1496281319187

How will $DJT move if Trump wins/loses?

1735718340000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1711512683568

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will compare the market closing price of $DJT on the last trading day before Election Day (Nov 4th) with the closing price of the first trading day that occurs after this market is resolved: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 8.618350115148795, "platformFee": 3.562742049354887, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1575

SG

1719798800407

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

32

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "b00112b6ab1d", "prob": 0.7353879888224415, "text": "Wins: +20% or more", "index": 0, "poolNo": 481.50143776654335, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 173.2569280011104, "textFts": "'+20':2 'win':1", "contractId": "lKuAamj7hpBQp4oZHhgP", "createdTime": 1711512683568, "probCha...

0.3333333333333333

1639156540325

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1711512684634}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1711512684637}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": ...

["us-politics", "donald-trump", "stocks"]

0.25

1719798797032

1712033038889

False

0.9564521495628896

K8E9M3ffJgT0AGxjXGNT

{"NO": 1612.12308039832, "YES": 263.8514174495976}

1

will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-at-the-e-5d41ad4f3e32

5657.760911798901

Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 27?

1711598611757

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

cpmm-1

0

6.394656504612106

True

play

YES

public

1711512987266

Jimmy Carter Death Markets

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1711598611757

360

JCDM

1711598611757

0

https://firebasestorage.…31d-01d8ae732bec

28

0

0.3333333333333333

1703455433441

0

[{"name": "Jimmy Carter", "slug": "jimmy-carter", "groupId": "rigfelwTsUUySMFFJz5O", "createdTime": 1711512987444}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1711512987452}, {"name": "Public Figures", "slug": "public-figures", "groupId": "sIbESq9CYGTy9yeah6Tg", "create...

["jimmy-carter", "longevity", "public-figures", "jimmy-carter-daily", "entertainment", "death-markets"]

0.25

0.5

True

1711589439004

0.99

ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.36175844409489466

c1faeqfm9N3LjaHOqljb

{"NO": 205.18548988744868, "YES": 290.17370426494233}

0.286119618907861

will-a-marveldc-crossover-movie-be

163.11457495321858

Will a Marvel/DC crossover movie be announced before 2030?

1893495540000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711514283913

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There've been multiple comics crossovers, so it's not unprecedented.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.48434185841429345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

NcyRocks

1717502550490

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

8

0

0.3333333333333333

1644447319203

0

[{"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1711514284144}, {"name": "DC Comics", "slug": "dc-comics", "groupId": "nJRHhgaUmWYKxDRbdoXe", "createdTime": 1711514284140}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment",...

["marvel-cinematic-universe", "dc-comics", "entertainment", "marvel", "superheroes"]

0.25

0.5

1717502547368

1711576072689

0.13786223968610378

xWoycHWQz1rr05LAv0j1

{"NO": 118.46041363056251, "YES": 130.00000000000003}

0.1271811307110469

will-why-didnt-we-get-the-fourhour

10

Will "Why didn't we get the four-hour workday?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1711515254511

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

LessWrong

1711635060380

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.3333333333333333

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1711515254675}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1711635055771

0.4700637908456511

cfPXzmcoPtagg7lOLI0V

{"NO": 231.5545939290662, "YES": 205.3934574195516}

0.5

toothpaste-jellyfish-toothpaste

105.43870448269847

Toothpaste Jellyfish Toothpaste

1714489229303

QtJRN5FemkW3KZtCMJayxzIi0gT2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1711515654398

E McNeill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy’s ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "page on Imprecise Probabilities", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/imprecise-probabilities/", "class": "break-an...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6535085172392233, "platformFee": 0.6535085172392233, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1714489229303

220

EMcNeill

1714489229303

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1qMch5modbJaRv1LY30ehApvwDQzTDFDR8BisLwRs=s96-c

6

0

0.3333333333333333

1668445748368

0

[{"name": "Philosophy (+Updating Beliefs?)", "slug": "philosophy", "groupId": "k5dp7h33O46hKqTGyKM9", "createdTime": 1711515700646}, {"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "groupId": "fxiwfHfrTmac3tKJyehm", "createdTime": 1711515705799}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-...

["philosophy", "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "predictions-on-predictions", "fun"]

0.25

0.5

1713844038308

0.5

QtJRN5FemkW3KZtCMJayxzIi0gT2

mhIcZzypGsoBCy99sTFG

tumbles-vs-battle-of-bc-6-prop-bets

13826.034106775594

Tumbles vs Battle of BC 6 prop bets

1712020743088

rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92

cpmm-multi-1

0

1

True

play

MKT

public

1711516665557

Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This weekend Tumbles (me) is traveling to Vancouver to compete in Battle of BC, the biggest and most important Super Smash Bros Melee event of the year (for Tumbles).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This m...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1712020743088

620

Tumbles

1712105290456

0

https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c957f7cd82bb", "prob": 1, "text": "Tumbles defeats at least three opponents in bracket", "color": "#ff5722", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1047.3390656056165, "userId": "rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.19011247337221, "textFts": "'bracket':8 'defeat':2 'least':4 'oppon':6 'three':5 'tumbl...

0.3333333333333333

https://firebasestorage.…6cf-8381b54780d6

1667436087719

0

[{"name": "Super Smash Bros. Melee", "slug": "super-smash-bros-melee", "groupId": "koeOcecc6M4mnd83iBbb", "createdTime": 1711516665755}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1711516665758}, {"name": "Esports", "slug": "esports", "groupId": "XmzXsWcpvMK0PSBDNpVc", "cr...

["super-smash-bros-melee", "gaming", "esports", "super-smash-bros-series", "tumbles-stream"]

0.25

1712020668685

1711833611376

0.13

rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92

False

liquidity