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0.3569573367497398 | 4x96V9EFKIKsXdlkbAQa | {"NO": 774.0890215296063, "YES": 1360.7231824453042} | 0.23999999999999988 | metaculus-will-germany-supply-ukrai | 3621.091858693742 | [Metaculus] Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | 1735815600000 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.74127189100793 | False | basic | public | 1712945926761 | Mirror Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.013286176837469799, "month": -0.013286176837469799} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.43278908996177, "platformFee": 51.50693033795309, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mirrorbot | 1719914248481 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 22 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1696426201173 | 0 | [{"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1712945927121}] | ["metaculus"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719914245391 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.9691183455813873 | aG0DVhBOYiTWBJT9Zxnx | {"NO": 6023.637070568834, "YES": 30.21928701246043} | 0.9998401621100862 | testing-a69fdbc5f4e2 | 14856.110812151031 | testing | 1712962720991 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712946571069 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712962724625 | 140 | AmmonLam | 1712962720991 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712959870818 | 1712946627844 | 1 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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GfQaplmAiDNeOurDnVG7 | which-nba-teams-will-have-a-series | 4347.22436777057 | Which NBA teams will have a series lead at the end of April? | 1714622340000 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712947562657 | Semiotic Rivalry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Teams will be added when they are set in their seeds.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the series is tied, resolves 50/50.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 18.55178664924025, "platformFee": 18.55178664924025, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714622802189 | 800 | SemioticRivalry | 1714622340000 | 0 | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "a88fb61b3504", "prob": 0.99, "text": "The Celtics will lead the #8 seed in the East", "index": 0, "poolNo": 633.3145115126568, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.397116277905631, "textFts": "'8':6 'celtic':2 'east':10 'lead':4 'seed':7", "contractId": "GfQaplmAiDNeOurDnVG7... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1669063432873 | 0 | [{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1712947562911}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1712947562914}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketb... | ["20232024-nba-season", "nba-playoffs", "basketball", "nba", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1714531117387 | 1714343783611 | 0.99 | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.25597060543725947 | jgTzWUS4ck8hqNZL6k0G | {"NO": 57.83617063380406, "YES": 598.8941404805543} | 0.032155484790238435 | what-is-the-riskfree-interest-rate-4c8d748abe09 | 1441.105859519446 | What is the risk-free interest rate for markets with ridiculously distant resolution dates? | 4859848740000 | wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712948228285 | Robin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO on January 1st, 2124.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/what-is-the-riskfree-interest-rate-1a019481097... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | pie | 1713085380611 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKldPg3IsxzoAs_UY7bxXVh-JuBTwHgAfA3H1o9BgWK=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711856381867 | 0 | [{"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1712948228628}, {"name": "Free Mana", "slug": "free-mana", "groupId": "6Kc95X62qKLbgghiIhu0", "createdTime": 1712948228626}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ",... | ["interest-rates", "free-mana", "manifold-6748e065087e", "free-money", "longterm-markets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713085376809 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6932119368607517 | X6Lyir8eyuxH7KJ5RGAv | {"NO": 638.5143624992915, "YES": 88.93950100280948} | 0.9419346288447397 | will-alexandre-de-moraes-be-ministe | 531.3808979517789 | Will Alexandre de Moraes be Minister of the Brazilian Supreme Court by the end of 2024? | 1735700340000 | Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712949671142 | Leonardo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2024/04/oab-sobe-tom-contra-moraes-e-busca-camara-em-meio-a-disputa-entre-poderes.shtml", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2024/04/oab-sobe-tom-con... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | LeonardoKr | 1713182681461 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpog6i--u15_WA_66nvBoZhXHAdY-Bksm1f9q8CmA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1662949684793 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712949672838}, {"name": "LatAm & Caribbean", "slug": "latam-caribbean", "groupId": "9Gafi93SU4eHXKhWCWj6", "createdTime": 1712949672840}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5Mr... | ["politics-default", "latam-caribbean", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "brazil-3292d24d179f", "bolsonaro"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713182678218 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1cZNOwbFHx9iw2dTHwFz | how-underrated-are-these-media-acco | 2554.286654372771 | How underrated are these media, according to Manifold? | 1718427540000 | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712950721952 | Plasma Ballin' | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit any form of media, whether it's a book, movie, show, game, franchise, or even a specific genre. When this market closes, I will release a poll on which users will answer whether they think each option is overrated or underrated, and by how m... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2606004838364258, "platformFee": 2.007259046242404, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3935 | PlasmaBallin | 1718289308613 | 0 | 39 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7d35b9c6999b", "prob": 0.419604215907618, "text": "Harry Potter", "index": 0, "poolNo": 105.09581487901148, "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 145.36833894672097, "textFts": "'harri':1 'potter':2", "contractId": "1cZNOwbFHx9iw2dTHwFz", "createdTime": 1712950721952, "probChan... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668786016313 | 0 | [{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1712950722204}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1712950722196}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1712950722211}, {"n... | ["movies", "gaming", "books", "culture-default", "tv-shows"] | 0.25 | 1718289305000 | 1713293860816 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sxAh9jfPIPVPY9OkkHzu | how-will-firstuserhere-personal-mar | 430.5047254519779 | How will @firstuserhere personal markets resolve? [ADD ANSWERS] | 1715572740000 | BcJRxLINLKX2Azn4nL1r68ZxqNF2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712951357205 | Jaime Santa Cruz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@firstuserhere has been banned for allegedly using alts while being warned he couldn’t for months. They have around 40 markets open, many of which are personal (i.e. depend on their publication or updates on personal activities: running, reading, p... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.19073856895696245, "platformFee": 0.19073856895696245, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 380 | JaimeSantaCruz | 1714250522077 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "32070ecba425", "prob": 0.2742989875740429, "text": "They will be N/A’d", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.13244910322331, "userId": "BcJRxLINLKX2Azn4nL1r68ZxqNF2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 156.44417269258767, "textFts": "'d':5 'n/a':4", "contractId": "sxAh9jfPIPVPY9OkkHzu", "createdTime": 1712951357205, "probChang... | 7 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697459811549 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1712951357457}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L09GcXRMF", "createdTime": 1712951357454}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVba... | ["metamarkets", "manifold-drama", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 1714250518789 | 1712951900294 | True | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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8LTJxcCGb4pt83hIDMpO | who-will-win-the-2024-grand-nationa | 4105.603618602817 | Who will win the 2024 Grand National at Aintree? | 1713021178240 | YDvfEB2gLIfMz3Agxq3qLr6GCIA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | da5d7e1d8e76 | public | 1712952957615 | Arinbjörn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Randox Grand National 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Date:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Saturday, 13 April ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Venue:", "type": "t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713021178240 | 650 | Arinbjorn | 1713021178240 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "da5d7e1d8e76", "prob": 0.9927347415273103, "text": "I Am Maximus", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1238.8619561643286, "userId": "YDvfEB2gLIfMz3Agxq3qLr6GCIA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9.066522956241483, "textFts": "'maximus':3", "contractId": "8LTJxcCGb4pt83hIDMpO", "resolverId": "YDvfEB2gLIfMz3Agxq3qLr6GCIA2", "c... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1690560462660 | 0 | [{"name": "Horse racing", "slug": "horse-racing", "groupId": "ef96178c-314c-4aed-be84-e13d3875ff06", "createdTime": 1712952957915}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712952957937}] | ["horse-racing", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1713021158170 | {"da5d7e1d8e76": 100} | YDvfEB2gLIfMz3Agxq3qLr6GCIA2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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HHJUAYyBFQVs8CUhf9gR | what-will-be-the-political-compass | 157.03575202347355 | What will be the political compass alignment of the "big pivot"? | 1713833766561 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | 46477f8b34b4 | public | 1712953139165 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See this poll for the definitions of the four Manifold political quadrants.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/spiritualistliteralist-gameepisteme", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "pa... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2176851846055883, "platformFee": 1.2176851846055883, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713833766561 | 240 | BoltonBailey | 1713833766561 | 0 | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c08658cf8a18", "prob": 0.1916125699377245, "text": "Spiritualist Game", "index": 0, "poolNo": 34.330750824057134, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 144.83677892211182, "textFts": "'game':2 'spiritualist':1", "contractId": "HHJUAYyBFQVs8CUhf9gR", "resolverId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1644820557359 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712953139438}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712953139562}, {"name": "Political compass test", "slug": "politcal-comp... | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "politcal-compass-test", "pivot-predictions"] | 0.25 | 1713472243752 | {"46477f8b34b4": 100} | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44341790108635104 | MxvHc5fsyuNRRnkkT3DR | {"NO": 28.618883654956218, "YES": 2257.209510154785} | 0 | will-i-get-banned-from-manifold-by | 2078.283957638699 | Will I get banned from Manifold by July 1st 2024 ? | 1719955109741 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712953894660 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Self-explanatory.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may handle NO resolutions myself, if I don't go inactive. YES resolutions should be handled by a mod. It must be a \"real\" ban e.g if I get banned as a joke or ge... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.12975962841016256, "month": -0.1317752131579346} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.665834714462774, "platformFee": 0.3869542739383681, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719955109741 | 200 | Mich | 1719955223714 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712953894923}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712953895283}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719947733576 | 1719955222314 | 0.01 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QLC3tKlQN8wTvOc4qlEt | duckmasters-prop-bets-ama-recommend | 102.02101675490732 | duck_master's prop bets / AMA / recommendations [add answers!] | 1735707540000 | dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712954520947 | duck_master | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Go crazy on this!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a combination prop bets, personal guessing game, and recommendation market all about yours truly - duck_master! Pretty much anything r... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 265 | duck_master | 1717866828652 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0acc6bc2a40f", "prob": 0.6621621621621622, "text": "PLACEHOLDER", "index": 0, "poolNo": 54.999999999999986, "userId": "dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28.061224489795904, "textFts": "'placehold':1", "contractId": "QLC3tKlQN8wTvOc4qlEt", "createdTime": 1712954520947, "probChanges": {... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1681595246354 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1712954521300}, {"name": "Massachusetts", "slug": "massachusetts", "groupId": "mePh8oR7NzDVkqJZk8c7", "createdTime": 1712954521303}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S... | ["personal-goals", "massachusetts", "recommendations", "manifold-users", "personal-guessing-games"] | 0.25 | 1713033588371 | 1717866827467 | False | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7398738170892962 | 5jOT0YBvQWHShhFvN9Me | {"NO": 972.0204061220409, "YES": 30.50397652791287} | 1 | will-club-guarani-beat-sol-de-ameri | 890.2389119454596 | Will Club Guarani beat SOL DE America during regular time on Fri, Apr 12, 2024?⚽ Division Profesional - Apertura 🇵🇾 | 1712970000000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.539471946201811 | True | play | YES | public | 1712954945470 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Club Guarani vs SOL DE America", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "📅 Date: Friday, April 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 22:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🏆 Com... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010912945913114536} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713022498306 | 120 | FranklinBaldo | 1712970000000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1712954945749}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712969575158 | 0.99 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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JFTsRRL8iErW2c3vLLQ7 | what-will-happen-tomorrow-in-la-roc | 433.54056991855344 | What will happen tomorrow in La Rochelle ? (UTC + 1) | 1713125757718 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | MKT | public | 1712955141455 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone can add any option. The spirit of this market is \"sh*t that has > 99% or < 1% chance of happening\" but I won't erase things that think don't meet this criterion.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The four ini... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713125757718 | 290 | Mich | 1713125757718 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "02e17fa6e59c", "prob": 0.72, "text": "The sun rises", "index": 0, "poolNo": 60.00000000000001, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 23.43749999999999, "textFts": "'rise':3 'sun':2", "contractId": "JFTsRRL8iErW2c3vLLQ7", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkT... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c", "createdTime": 1712955141666}, {"name": "Epistemology", "slug": "epistemology", "groupId": "1c632fbe-6e13-4b4d-ac56-be7948585643", "createdTime": 1712964744731}] | ["short-fuse", "epistemology"] | 0.25 | 1713088868550 | 1713088592237 | 0.12 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | False | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.9066149182703729 | 9b8Qtqs4gfBKQVKwCnAn | {"NO": 2698.944033282894, "YES": 800.3595965372319} | 0.9703599598410921 | a-ukraine-aid-bill-will-reach-the-h | 1787.1803616255838 | A Ukraine aid bill will reach the House floor before a motion to vacate is filed. | 1735977540000 | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.48931311822907 | False | basic | public | 1712958235435 | Matty B | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Marjorie Taylor Greene has ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "threatened to file a motion to vacate the Speaker", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/marjorie-taylor-greene-mike-johnson-fisa-ukr... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.731911642442144, "platformFee": 3.731911642442144, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mattyb | 1713711599217 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1697395701475 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712958235775}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1712958235794}, {"name": "Speaker of the House election", "slug": "speaker-of-the... | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war", "speaker-of-the-house-election", "magaland", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713711595919 | 1713380478629 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4430633786275076 | eSxFrhxtHnmusVbCnbvG | {"NO": 43.10300470217344, "YES": 777.1195524283324} | 0 | manifold-groups-redesign-before-jun | 634 | Manifold Groups redesign before June? | 1717214340000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712958330982 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Groups-redesign-2866ca1798c24593957d31d506b41eb0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Groups-redesign-2866ca1798c24593957d31d506b41eb0", "class": "br... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04225980636473733} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.928025949129501, "platformFee": 2.1674933455628884, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717225829672 | 160 | Bayesian | 1717214340000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712958331170}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717128437253 | 1713024923697 | 0.04 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5013946873092726 | RKCTywyAXntytuYhOKKG | {"NO": 318.5293172651359, "YES": 210.773848197779} | 1 | did-i-find-the-pivot | 274.1032242978406 | Did I find the pivot? | 1713826849985 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.300672401850152 | True | play | YES | public | 1712958427517 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I found the pivot (Not what the mods have found)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if what I found is not the pivot, or if no pivot occurs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.39687393942686544} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3605848920397985, "platformFee": 1.3605848920397985, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713826849985 | 260 | nikki | 1716046190512 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | 0 | [{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1712960044125}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712960048696}] | ["pivot-predictions", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713473247161 | 1716046189150 | 0.1 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eXfv5BVzqCTexuEejBNe | how-many-on-the-passing-of-statemen | 169.6742878582436 | How many "on the passing of" statements will be posted to the White House website from 4/12/2024 to 1/20/2025? | 1712959870865 | wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 1 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1712958823928 | Robin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the number of posts newer than \"Statement from President Biden on the Passing of Esther Coopersmith\" that appear at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/?s=on+the+passing+of", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712959870865 | 120 | pie | 1712959880584 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKldPg3IsxzoAs_UY7bxXVh-JuBTwHgAfA3H1o9BgWK=s96-c | 2 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "231b0fb4abb8", "prob": 0.006304993167974562, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5720946898772759, "userId": "wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 90.1646713360021, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "eXfv5BVzqCTexuEejBNe", "resolverId": "wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52", "createdT... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1711856381867 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1712958824249}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1712958824247}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxD... | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "death-markets", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1712959269265 | 1712959879174 | wn3guzrcbYdRDr8lRFlobBEnRq52 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FGRLtumlP7jE3KtIiQ7s | recommend-market-structures-that-in | 0 | Recommend market structures that incentivize betting on long term markets | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712959164130 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sometimes people don't bet on long term markets because they don't want to tie up their mana for a long time. Put in some suggestions for how to avoid this and I can award a bounty if I like them. Maybe ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attr... | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Eliza | 1716441831219 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 2800 | ["zI1tcAKU5cgVOoYsLgHr", "Jqy6683DRYUQ9NO6y4LB", "fJ0nq1qjgSXd2J4BXKs7", "Sfc1rjq2jeGJzAqSojIp", "ZgFANAZsH3yNubRUi7CS", "Mv1T6A5ppBNmc53TsitC", "vHhopWlV4hm83C4hsrpF", "7DvzGdqEHDePLMTMjO0p", "LtSKV5AkBT2VRyaIi4ln", "YArsjrTrpbqNOE9UWFPc", "YdAmb55SiY2p6EMV0a8K", "rfDqu9ji8tsjgMOC5cNX", "O95MJpI2MPXL1f5HTh0V", "dZ6gV9... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712959164265}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712959164307}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 1716441829647 | 5000 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5714861815983396 | DT3vgwQfUqqaHivXIl3e | {"NO": 241.46492686757082, "YES": 170.52520379776936} | 0.6537940221687066 | ybg-x-misahere | 321.01673171560924 | YBG x Misahere | o2l6Hr5wXIXuBaPcAED8nKZ6Hhp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712960021791 | TEAMSAPRESIDENT | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes/good = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No/bad = Short", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a permanent market which trades on sentiment. The aim is to sell your ... | STONK | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | TEAMSAPRESIDENT | 1716338466509 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLjA9NrjkSsxdNaGNKJ6I2jkdOL2Bks1XhDjbCFESpJVga-VPM=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712715078421 | 0 | [{"name": "jasontheween", "slug": "jasontheween", "groupId": "0d39aa2b-1447-4298-bc60-5ef67d9cea4f", "createdTime": 1712960022139}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1712960028269}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": ... | ["jasontheween", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized", "all-stonks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1713276937209 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
G8FSmUvjaEOyH4Bjf0lb | bounty-for-jason-ween-stocks-financ | 0 | Bounty for Jason Ween Stocks financial advice and analysis | fBFdG15kdfeBmjRVEajSMLayZ2y1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712960095907 | Jason Memes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll pay you mana for posting your meme-y financial adivce about which stonks I should buy or short. Like other people's comments so they can have some of my mana! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex... | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JasonMemes | 1713205613053 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9819525771450267 | ["GrmQlCxEnO9rg1IyZ0MB", "eDB0wkPcIDviLGnqrEv2", "O7FURmytXBG2i70odlIm", "i9Py549iQmJFlLWBjmAM", "Xn604nX3zRIEyQD7CTiu", "dnIcr10MFihTTYwItehD", "TNLYXtewodJ6JgEG6JSq", "6xe5HbDBSo0ZfKpchhBs", "ol3tlIQ04Gr0V7GUH77L", "IGdfasTb0g6Odi2hJ5t1", "AhrdQ1F1v4f46Ka9kT7k", "TLt4FjKdgZWHd4sW78gA", "e4xzQuVkwjKnuHfNxb29", "vBKqVn... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712779339543 | 0 | [{"name": "jasontheween", "slug": "jasontheween", "groupId": "0d39aa2b-1447-4298-bc60-5ef67d9cea4f", "createdTime": 1712960096540}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 1712960096533}] | ["jasontheween", "permanent-markets"] | 0.25 | 1713205612431 | 2067 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | N79w7h2ZjFMrY5agAaPp | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | mayaszn-stocks | 0 | MayaSzn Stocks | 1713567540000 | 8iyTH4ASTvhZMfAYL8W7D7Np3EH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712961731033 | TravzTmr | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arky and Maya Looking Great Together and have Amazing Chemistry So where are their Stocks?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | TravzTmr | 1712961731033 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK33ZGiS1enpSMiPWbnrqX8r7KOW6aO_A4ufM-B89SNTB9b0Q=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712809647316 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 2DYMzm1UWMHacaXSfhU8 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | selena-comeback-soon | 0 | Selena comeback soon? | 1713567540000 | p8diazoAzWXtF51mr8iJZYalwwb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.726376370574009 | True | play | NO | public | 1712961768197 | Markabeesah | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713603507969 | 100 | MarkaBeesah | 1713567540000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712747046616 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | p8diazoAzWXtF51mr8iJZYalwwb2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0cfaLKmSqQ68i2xgkd1Y | is-it-good-that-musk-is-defying-bra | 0 | Is it good that Musk is defying Brazil's attempted censorship of X? | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712961790446 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | JonathanRay | 1712961790446 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5cCeBZBDzawkwDsdNuAZ | sfadgagasgasgdsgasdfgsadf | 0 | sfadgagasgasgdsgasdfgsadf | EwBKpkV4l2avRIRcsomHHHAfAxH2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712961820035 | Isaac Bongard | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "aesgfafrsda", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | IsaacBongard | 1712961820179 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLqiZo2YwS6ylq7fd0jPUlP7S3TRW1QUI092JqxUQYQdJmUVQ=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712961689711 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1712961820179}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0FGhldEmGMTEHNnCKdrX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | fsdfasdfas | 0 | FSDFAsdfaS | 1713589140000 | EwBKpkV4l2avRIRcsomHHHAfAxH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712961835543 | Isaac Bongard | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "afdgardsgdfs", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | IsaacBongard | 1712991192084 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLqiZo2YwS6ylq7fd0jPUlP7S3TRW1QUI092JqxUQYQdJmUVQ=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712961689711 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1712961835690}] | ["world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1712991191274 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cwkoYZo6MIsT0lMOLRFb | wedfasdfesaf | 0 | wedfasdfesaf | EwBKpkV4l2avRIRcsomHHHAfAxH2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712961847281 | Isaac Bongard | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "fads", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | IsaacBongard | 1712961847462 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLqiZo2YwS6ylq7fd0jPUlP7S3TRW1QUI092JqxUQYQdJmUVQ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712961689711 | 0 | [{"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1712961847462}] | ["sp-500-439f18dbc885"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n1W2aa57HsX8wPDDpxPb | asdf-98db11419d46 | 0 | asdf | EwBKpkV4l2avRIRcsomHHHAfAxH2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712961859247 | Isaac Bongard | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "asdf", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | IsaacBongard | 1712961859404 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLqiZo2YwS6ylq7fd0jPUlP7S3TRW1QUI092JqxUQYQdJmUVQ=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712961689711 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1712961859404}] | ["stocks"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5128380951594365 | vsV4gb4cUYn23iFKiRqm | {"NO": 175, "YES": 146.72760021859673} | 0.5566486884667349 | will-stubhub-complete-an-initial-pu | 114.99999999999999 | Will StubHub complete an initial public offering before December 31, 2024? | 1735718340000 | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712962075714 | Kevin Burke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "StubHub is hoping for a summer IPO at a $16 billion valuation. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/stubhub-eyes-summer-ipo-seeks-16point5-billion-valuation.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | KevinBurke | 1713281795116 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668407142709 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712962075869}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1712962075865}, {"name": "IPO valuation", "slug": "ipo-valuation", "groupId": "wXtixYXVK6Nq9c7ts9iJ",... | ["technology-default", "business", "ipo-valuation", "stubhub", "ipos-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713281791874 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24169317868559634 | mu2EERxlZij9vrO8aZRP | {"NO": 58.782954959275116, "YES": 1299.8939146194632} | 0.014208492630446023 | will-there-be-a-successful-discharg-b6ea20ab04de | 1270 | Will there be a successful discharge petition in the senate for the TikTok ban bill before 2025? | 1735718340000 | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712962075897 | Jonathan Ray | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": -2.0816681711721685e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004996387881000185, "platformFee": 0.004996387881000185, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | JonathanRay | 1713507199172 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1647294987992 | 0 | [{"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1712962076052}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712962076053}, {"name": "TikTok Ban", "slug": "tiktok-ban", "groupId": "cdb620e7-b50a-44ee-8a56-024a0af9f040", "c... | ["tiktok", "us-politics", "tiktok-ban", "us-legislation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713507195647 | 1713071779878 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
y7r1Y7R3fPutq0zRbyex | wodsepogwad | 0 | wodsepogwad | RdmGPKnA6fX40xQq1qrljtVk9Zo2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712962126287 | ryan stephens | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "wagawdawg", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ryanstephens | 1712962126766 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI5gT5MiUAJVrpRiNKE1O86JbqtakwsmXQ8SUHoBX-jHDRO9g=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712961999941 | 0 | [{"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1712962126766}] | ["weather"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
K3V2ZGVbDfOoIsgzDVpr | wadsafwqdwafg | 0 | wadsafwqdwafg | RdmGPKnA6fX40xQq1qrljtVk9Zo2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712962150859 | ryan stephens | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "wafagawdgf", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ryanstephens | 1712962151000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI5gT5MiUAJVrpRiNKE1O86JbqtakwsmXQ8SUHoBX-jHDRO9g=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712961999941 | 0 | [{"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1712962151000}] | ["nfl"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
o36CWqbiydwihbMtddij | i-weigh-800-kilo | 0 | i weigh 800 kilo | RdmGPKnA6fX40xQq1qrljtVk9Zo2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1712962181258 | ryan stephens | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "wdgasdwagwdfgr", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | ryanstephens | 1712962181394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI5gT5MiUAJVrpRiNKE1O86JbqtakwsmXQ8SUHoBX-jHDRO9g=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712961999941 | 0 | [{"name": "jasontheween", "slug": "jasontheween", "groupId": "0d39aa2b-1447-4298-bc60-5ef67d9cea4f", "createdTime": 1712962181394}] | ["jasontheween"] | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2701904016254376 | J2ohyhS6LO748MX950h2 | {"NO": 61.244822048292285, "YES": 1503.3311279087131} | 0 | will-manifold-fix-forgiveness-point | 1392.7525231651946 | Will Manifold fix forgiveness points before the end of April 2024? | 1714579140000 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712962824088 | Bohaska | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You're supposed to get a forgiveness point every month which lets you not bet on one day and still keep your streak, but for some reason these aren't being given.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will bet... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.3627815686731437, "platformFee": 2.3627815686731437, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714803087816 | 180 | bohaska | 1714579140000 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1692081472895 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712962824258}, {"name": "🐛 Manifold Bugs", "slug": "-manifold-bugs", "groupId": "125a4be3-3eba-4bdd-8371-a6a07b5f8b8b", "createdTime": 1712962824280}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "-manifold-bugs", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714567922389 | 1712967501814 | 0.01 | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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GaZe9jr6nE8x967Rg2aj | log10-how-much-mana-will-be-held-in | 0 | LOG_10 ("How much mana will be held in loans right after the last loan is claimed on April 30th, 2024 ?") | 1714600740000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712964031903 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Mich | 1712964032191 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "cacc15b718e4", "prob": 0.02, "text": "0-0.2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0204081632653061, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'-0.2':2 '0':1", "contractId": "GaZe9jr6nE8x967Rg2aj", "createdTime": 1712964031903, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "... | 9 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1712964032188}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712964032191}] | ["mana", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3917309918070766 | erHyGXnlRfEPxm4CnXgh | {"NO": 113.83658669215824, "YES": 516.5714020245182} | 0 | will-i-stay-home-all-summer | 446.52519446054214 | Will I stay home all summer? | 1714801235683 | 74aMU8x2ajPfVbqodngPjJbFBx42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | NO | public | 1712964281397 | nyan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves true if I haven't travelled 100mi from my current residence over 10 June - 9 Sep 2024, inclusive.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5831701289404595, "platformFee": 0.5831701289404595, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714801235683 | 220 | nyc | 1714801235683 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLykD3KIyMWeaQshG4LeYfGAcpyPubhGpKpmbQ0UMIQpok=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1703216186033 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714230263844 | 1713057659948 | 0.12 | 74aMU8x2ajPfVbqodngPjJbFBx42 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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SLeh3eMpqQAC8XOksPPG | which-country-will-win-gold-in-the | 45 | Which country will win gold in the Men's Team Pursuit at the Paris Olympics? | 1719903540000 | qy7vYjEzk4gnouodZcfba5VkPhn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712964786847 | Jake | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Italy beat Denmark in 2020 for the gold. I've included the top 6 from last year to start. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.920693745852106, "platformFee": 0.920693745852106, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 275 | JCE | 1714567266764 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJCE%2FcPtjpARFTB.05?alt=media&token=30a31166-c2d4-4e74-8676-ad1a9cd4f10f | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "1cd33a310a0e", "prob": 0.2874067856993595, "text": "Italy", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.72501054737335, "userId": "qy7vYjEzk4gnouodZcfba5VkPhn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 93.53497503569292, "textFts": "'itali':1", "contractId": "SLeh3eMpqQAC8XOksPPG", "createdTime": 1712964786847, "probChanges": {"day": -5.55... | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1672934843550 | 0 | [{"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF", "createdTime": 1712964787125}, {"name": "🚲 Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1712964787126}, {"name": "🚲 Peloton Discord", "slug": "peloton-discord", "groupId": "rIVWY1mvCrXzAzPN8OcW... | ["olympics", "road-bicycle-racing", "peloton-discord", "athletics", "2024-summer-olympics"] | 0.25 | 1714567263406 | 1713826602661 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4752756628738157 | f4wsnl8j5DqNE2bGcQkp | {"NO": 84.08759564429158, "YES": 516.0854525261847} | 0.12860032848422165 | will-manifold-be-more-accurate-a-mo | 418.9709928097629 | Will Manifold be more accurate a month after the pivot | 1717300740000 | nvwiMP9zkuh9FQ2v8UH9xDCnSUe2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712973332266 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/calibration", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/calibration", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoratio... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.734243419179879, "platformFee": 1.983899995098773, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | JamesF | 1717976847882 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv27jBfXshvcxQg0USPWlCThidP8XpLI2WYLtoehvX=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1701462146149 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1712973332473}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712973332475}] | ["manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717294809145 | 1717976846582 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36931688502387444 | bPMuRa3iOoFBB5tE5DLc | {"NO": 197.04044034746062, "YES": 237.4818897429119} | 0.32698993878502874 | will-there-be-interest-free-loans-w | 330.4744871391589 | Will there be interest free loans (without collateral) on manifold at any point before 2026? | 1767329940000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712973968953 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "once they are removed, in may. If they are not removed around may, resolves N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some requirements:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.001440952872698742} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.45762123577045, "platformFee": 1.174111155548126, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | Bayesian | 1719074457179 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712973969121}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719074454111 | 1714440555332 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4374266394129569 | QNYybWGMnh0DUdnuCFyx | {"NO": 156.76517757574743, "YES": 266.8103970616451} | 0.31358718049573564 | will-manifold-poker-nights-attendan | 475.796424323523 | Will Manifold poker nights attendance exceed Manifold daily active users? | 4080340740000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712973969086 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Manifold poker nights attendance exceed Manifold daily active users in 2024", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "[Attention] This market resolves in 2099 regardless. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.125917162522819, "platformFee": 3.125917162522819, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | AmmonLam | 1716190258879 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1712973969229}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1712973969231}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6... | ["manifold-user-retention", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715331762481 | 1716190257585 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
YfM0Gsq3xhe6C4zWVB3e | golf-who-will-win-the-2024-pga-cham | 14486.188343642401 | Golf: Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship? | 1716160366091 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 510a0127658d | public | 1712974776850 | fish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week of May 13-19 at Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, Kentucky", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 121.46798194982213, "platformFee": 121.46798194982213, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716160366091 | 1750 | kurt | 1716160390745 | 0 | 22 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "42c6c60ac85b", "prob": 0.000296939137686754, "text": "Scottie Scheffler", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.1790881910492317, "userId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7336.322020234704, "textFts": "'scheffler':2 'scotti':1", "contractId": "YfM0Gsq3xhe6C4zWVB3e", "resolverId": "RabTJS18F8W5a... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700606417730 | 0 | [{"name": "LIV Golf", "slug": "liv-golf-e6b76f899909", "groupId": "fe5f5381-9b99-4911-9685-3d7c98783d5d", "createdTime": 1712974777073}, {"name": "Golf", "slug": "golf", "groupId": "NxkKZhLxyZglOcGxX6zn", "createdTime": 1712974777075}, {"name": "PGA Tour", "slug": "pga-tour-54c67dc97aca", "groupId": "d33772d2-7e31-422f... | ["liv-golf-e6b76f899909", "golf", "pga-tour-54c67dc97aca"] | 0.25 | 1716159300313 | 1716160389004 | {"510a0127658d": 100} | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
qAinUJWc8WnXq1G9t1Cb | golf-who-will-win-the-2024-us-open | 17202.15119714231 | Golf: Who will win the 2024 US Open? | 1718577594504 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | 1cyv94ip4u | public | 1712974864469 | fish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week of June 10-16 at Pinehurst Resort (No. 2), Village of Pinehurst, North Carolina", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 218.351184635985, "platformFee": 2.9763022749839303, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718577594504 | 550 | kurt | 1718582208179 | 0 | 26 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bfb0ed15badc", "prob": 0.0002876975933951423, "text": "Scottie Scheffler", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.072657038525449, "userId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 7202.217841418057, "textFts": "'scheffler':2 'scotti':1", "contractId": "qAinUJWc8WnXq1G9t1Cb", "resolverId": "RabTJS18F8W5a... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700606417730 | 0 | [{"name": "LIV Golf", "slug": "liv-golf-e6b76f899909", "groupId": "fe5f5381-9b99-4911-9685-3d7c98783d5d", "createdTime": 1712974864687}, {"name": "PGA Tour", "slug": "pga-tour-54c67dc97aca", "groupId": "d33772d2-7e31-422f-9df7-f7826399908c", "createdTime": 1712974864686}, {"name": "Golf", "slug": "golf", "groupId": "Nx... | ["liv-golf-e6b76f899909", "pga-tour-54c67dc97aca", "golf"] | 0.25 | 1718577534147 | 1718582207038 | {"1cyv94ip4u": 100} | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xSKsTLsuyqyzq6BaBbRb | golf-who-will-win-the-2024-open-cha | 327 | Golf: Who will win the 2024 Open Championship (British Open)? | 1721707140000 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712974911476 | fish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week of July 15-21 at Royal Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.4563098643750205, "platformFee": 0.22419902085490015, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 150 | kurt | 1718622380414 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "474bd466b678", "prob": 0.08271809456868541, "text": "Scottie Scheffler", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.94947044195644, "userId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 176.8677181686046, "textFts": "'scheffler':2 'scotti':1", "contractId": "xSKsTLsuyqyzq6BaBbRb", "createdTime": 1712974911476, ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700606417730 | 0 | [{"name": "Golf", "slug": "golf", "groupId": "NxkKZhLxyZglOcGxX6zn", "createdTime": 1712974911728}, {"name": "LIV Golf", "slug": "liv-golf-e6b76f899909", "groupId": "fe5f5381-9b99-4911-9685-3d7c98783d5d", "createdTime": 1712974911743}, {"name": "PGA Tour", "slug": "pga-tour-54c67dc97aca", "groupId": "d33772d2-7e31-422f... | ["golf", "liv-golf-e6b76f899909", "pga-tour-54c67dc97aca"] | 0.25 | 1718622377224 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2795851868266242 | XFt25Ks9B5zkdPHUYrtC | {"NO": 175.0509208689508, "YES": 288.51187627658226} | 0.19059024282916887 | will-the-tallest-building-in-the-us | 292.9873275333208 | Will the tallest building in the USA be located in Oklahoma City in 2032? | 1956639540000 | nT459mSV5DgFzB6sNO9nnwGdoy72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712975206745 | Hadean | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if the tallest building in the USA is in Oklahoma city on Jan. 1, 2032. Resolves based on this: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_the_United_States", "type": "text", "marks": [{... | BINARY | {"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 220 | Hadean | 1713057872622 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLukeB%2FjgaAQCLQYb.13?alt=media&token=cb9113cf-4a34-4168-afd0-c7d95bbbaca0 | 7 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1699492480134 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713057869404 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mp08A5wkvg0jl8m9pN9O | coolfold-self-immolation-how-many-u | 483444.51609839464 | 🔥CoolFold Self Immolation: How many users will burn all their mana balance to protest the pivot? [SACRIFICE YOURSELF] | 1715920100462 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.39299064099116 | True | basic | d0acddcc108a | public | 1712975704357 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Upset about the changes and looming pivot? Want to quit in a blaze of glory?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BOOST this mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1322.8370686331511, "platformFee": 1322.8370686331511, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715920432911 | 20731 | strutheo | 1715927507870 | 0 | 156 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "004760d95c73", "prob": 0.000693990074055849, "text": "00", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.69259509863798, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 28356.210511914986, "textFts": "'00':1", "contractId": "mp08A5wkvg0jl8m9pN9O", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "createdTime": ... | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712975704639}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1712975704640}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "u... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "metamarkets", "manifold-users", "manifold-drama", "manifold-user-retention", "unsubsidized", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | False | False | 1715920098716 | 1715927505376 | {"d0acddcc108a": 100} | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | True | alphabetical | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 4qlZLWWELQUIw9BXka3Q | {"NO": 48.432210483785404, "YES": 206.47416048350505} | 0.19000000000000097 | golf-will-rory-mcilroy-win-a-major | 648.3055213278367 | Golf: Will Rory McIlroy win a major in 2024? | 1721707140000 | RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712976605164 | fish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2024 Golf Major Schedule:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Masters: Week of April 8-14 at Augusta National, Augusta, Geor... | BINARY | {"day": -0.020000000000000878, "week": -0.09691012556962844, "month": -0.05262274193136157} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.835820268929414, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 57.767923565241816 | 100 | kurt | 1720235873327 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700606417730 | 0 | [{"name": "PGA Tour", "slug": "pga-tour-54c67dc97aca", "groupId": "d33772d2-7e31-422f-9df7-f7826399908c", "createdTime": 1712976605384}, {"name": "Golf", "slug": "golf", "groupId": "NxkKZhLxyZglOcGxX6zn", "createdTime": 1712976605385}, {"name": "🎾 Tennis", "slug": "tennis", "groupId": "1mvN9vIVIopcWiAsXhzp", "createdT... | ["pga-tour-54c67dc97aca", "golf", "tennis"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720235870246 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6402758513724462 | ST9s8slavTnwaeiiUi62 | {"NO": 2947.9403354476553, "YES": 85.48115637331169} | 1 | will-i-be-able-to-collect-a-loan-th | 3985.1978806878196 | Will I be able to collect a loan through Manifold on May 1st? | 1714142939945 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.389452562400194 | True | play | YES | public | 1712976609138 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of their current plans, they will be discontinuing the loan system on April 30th. However there has been a lot of people asking for a delay or change to the plans. Will I still be able to collect a loan on May 1st?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.8492028737250876} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.878304359239248, "platformFee": 19.878304359239248, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1714142939945 | 600 | strutheo | 1714942609977 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Loans", "slug": "loans", "groupId": "tGI8aX6j8Nen9qgpgkJV", "createdTime": 1712976609387}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712976609447}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw... | ["loans", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-users", "manifold-user-retention"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1714133564375 | 1714942608229 | 0.98 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38547785236332455 | Pu40n1azm9nupk6YW3K4 | {"NO": 143.44219946072397, "YES": 2764.3830399668414} | 0 | will-iran-exclusively-use-a-proxy-i | 3083.9677203935635 | Will Iran exclusively use a proxy in its response to Israel? | 1713050888881 | IRwA1MdNi6bbB9O3pWQW8mCRVZl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3631149621596488 | True | play | NO | public | 1712977333400 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Iran ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exclusively", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " use a proxy in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "its response to the attack on its embassy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "at... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.031523167048803515} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713050888881 | 580 | schlongenheim | 1713050888881 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1709006636872 | 0 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1712977333541}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1712977333549}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "... | ["iran", "arabisraeli-conflict", "us-politics", "israel", "world-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713040484371 | 1713050855562 | 0.03 | IRwA1MdNi6bbB9O3pWQW8mCRVZl2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5178028198954908 | OHTWzLbKLwasSlWSb49s | {"NO": 143.7177854914928, "YES": 100.82912218540824} | 0.604838209956786 | will-ton-prefix-hashmap-implementat | 24 | Will TON prefix hashmap implementation be shown to have a bug? | 1735671540000 | lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1712977652531 | Ender Ting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "While exploring possibilities of code optimization, I've found some strange behaviour in TVM prefix hashmaps - mappings that support variable-length keys which are not prefixes of each other. In short, I create one such dictionary via TVM and one v... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.141107254253595, "platformFee": 0.141107254253595, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | AnT | 1713723297492 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1686508617605 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1712977652671}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1712977652678}, {"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTi... | ["technology-default", "crypto-speculation", "bugs", "ton", "blockchain-technology"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713723294137 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5701599281016095 | u4ngW1oa3uGMbtTHKDIu | {"NO": 240.6387473107606, "YES": 195.6353159462435} | 0 | will-jason-rizz-his-homies-girls | 664.954663265346 | Will Jason rizz his homies’ girls | 1713110340000 | nQLs5SKDRZdRvA52DILZvr48rSs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5318871652510482 | True | play | NO | public | 1712978225614 | yoshi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.62} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713119554341 | 220 | yoshiisyou | 1713110340000 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712855510820 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1712978225769}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1712978225776}, {"name": "jasontheween", "slug": "jasontheween", "groupId": "0d39aa2b-1447-429... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "us-politics", "jasontheween"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1713071028276 | 0.62 | nQLs5SKDRZdRvA52DILZvr48rSs1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hzx0hj8BRKvanWK7KINW | jason-crashout-at-any-point-of-the | 0 | Jason crashout at any point of the bopolympics | 1712978604043 | nQLs5SKDRZdRvA52DILZvr48rSs1 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712978542123 | yoshi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712978604043 | yoshiisyou | 1712978542275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ["i0fUIcdMiuROxUCUddxW"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712855510820 | 0 | [{"name": "jasontheween", "slug": "jasontheween", "groupId": "0d39aa2b-1447-4298-bc60-5ef67d9cea4f", "createdTime": 1712978542275}] | ["jasontheween"] | 0.25 | nQLs5SKDRZdRvA52DILZvr48rSs1 | 250 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TlM6Hpk4u8evvzP2UCYz | recommend-a-bald-streamer | 0 | Recommend a bald streamer | 1712978704181 | nQLs5SKDRZdRvA52DILZvr48rSs1 | none | 0 | 1 | True | public | 1712978685669 | yoshi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BOUNTIED_QUESTION | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712978704181 | yoshiisyou | 1712978685809 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ["d5yc1bIc5oIn1MyBTKWe"] | 0.3333333333333333 | 1712855510820 | 0 | [{"name": "jasontheween", "slug": "jasontheween", "groupId": "0d39aa2b-1447-4298-bc60-5ef67d9cea4f", "createdTime": 1712978685809}] | ["jasontheween"] | 0.25 | nQLs5SKDRZdRvA52DILZvr48rSs1 | 250 | 0 |
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