Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.41358754954608495
zR0t32q39mwF8RwsMAyU
{"NO": 55.370328014869244, "YES": 694.5440362880232}
0
will-manifold-implement-effective-s
1153.7105767735093
Will Manifold implement effective spam control/filtering in 2022?
1672531140000
wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2
cpmm-1
0
2.7240603251032316
True
play
NO
public
1668517763934
O
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve the market, good data on this could be provided by the Manifold, but otherwise a qualitative resolution will be done via observing low enough spam occurrence - mainly in the 'new markets' section and in comments.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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1672583698328
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o
1672515980687
0
https://firebasestorage.…35d-e561bc66da0d
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0
1
https://firebasestorage.…c95-96d374a1d5ca
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["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]
0.5
1672515980505
1672388988352
0.05
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{"NO": 340.15271678700685, "YES": 108.8379892003347}
0.26694594594594595
what-will-be-memestinys-all-time-nu
252.36829319624866
What will be memestiny's all time number of traders at end of 2022?
1672527540000
wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2
cpmm-1
0
3.1821536138456077
True
play
MKT
public
1668518860676
O
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be found on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoratio...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
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1672583757905
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o
1668659511217
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0
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["destinygg", "manifold-user-retention"]
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0.7028669079575867
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{"NO": 211.96244706299183, "YES": 376.3016746186348}
1
will-i-make-a-profit-on-my-1500-inv
991.6328282219953
Will I make a profit on my $1500 investment in @o?
1680407940000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
1.3429668416310916
True
play
YES
public
1668518942895
Brian T. Edwards
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BINARY
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1680458407635
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BTE
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0
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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1668518943313}]
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0.4999999999999997
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{"NO": 500, "YES": 5}
1
winner-winner-chicken-dinner
450
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
1668519460272
r1Q870VGYDRfdNf8zseXhCMsaUG2
cpmm-1
0
6.453687989034768
True
play
YES
public
1668519321783
Vuvuzela Kapan
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
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VuvuzelaKapan
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1
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will-there-be-a-post-on-the-ea-foru
2246.104615545267
Will there be a post on the EA Forum with >1000 karma in 2023?
1704067140000
wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2
cpmm-1
0.3515777971217623
1.6232646620281814
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1668519872999
O
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market-power
2518
Market Power
1668520865925
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cpmm-1
0
6.6989754273020745
True
play
NO
public
1668520827781
Maximilian Meier
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BINARY
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MaximilianMeier
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{"NO": 2548.851799804807, "YES": 1.020528989761715}
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is-cristiano-ronaldo-better-than-li
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Is Cristiano Ronaldo better than Lionel Messi?
1668521349950
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cpmm-1
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play
YES
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1668521074299
Maximilian Meier
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{"NO": 1506.3127316300347, "YES": 293.8961299880205}
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will-prediction-markets-on-individu
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Will prediction markets on individual deaths continue to be allowed on Manifold?
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cpmm-1
0
1.7627811498204793
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play
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Benjamin Ikuta
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["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions"]
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{"NO": 68.42662371970883, "YES": 147.98673641108294}
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waffles-drama-index
1190.8447299825618
Waffles Drama Index
4102496460000
ZjZ3hADfRTd06VIK3NbVsaYrnG42
cpmm-1
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10.586609649448985
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play
public
1668522074177
ark
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy = Yes", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Sell = No", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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ark
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9
0
https://firebasestorage.…0dc-b6746f75ab70
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[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "ZjZ3hADfRTd06VIK3NbVsaYrnG42", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1668522074536}]
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{"NO": 298.5111874220206, "YES": 2824.1225264676546}
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will-destiny-appear-with-jesse-lee
3452.9886464697206
Will Destiny appear with Jesse Lee Peterson before Sep 21st 2023?
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cpmm-1
0
2.0193109698553084
True
play
NO
public
1668523982401
80IQplays
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny's last appearance with JLP was Sep 21st 2021, making Sep 2021-Sep 2022 a JLP-free year. Will Destiny make this 2 years, and not appear with JLP before Sep 21st 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content...
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80IQplays
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0
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[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]
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{"NO": 1241.3197736560958, "YES": 111.64133811930286}
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will-destiny-go-back-to-using-retar
3198.404669295636
Will Destiny go back to using retard before the end of November
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cpmm-1
0
1.253789236018585
True
play
YES
public
1668524646495
Avery Vega
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AveryVega
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will-a-team-win-all-their-games-at-c798b9b0140a
10839.479504815728
Will a team win all their games at the group phase of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
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cpmm-1
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4.94295398103942
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JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a team scores 9 points during the group stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-02 4:05 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
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if-a-new-relevant-robust-study-is-p
920.7908933619664
If a new relevant, robust study is published by Dec 2023, will it suggest non-trivial causal effects of breastfeeding on IQ?
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1.2827287333584114
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play
NO
public
1668525483589
micheal
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micheal
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will-a-team-not-concede-any-goals-a
10802.632235978223
Will all teams concede at least one goal at the group phase of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
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cpmm-1
0
4.347041678131534
True
play
YES
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1668525610219
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a team does not have any goals against at the end of their three matches of the group phase.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 15, 10:51am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a team not concede any...
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will-any-of-the-current-big-tokens
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1668526599500
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cpmm-multi-1
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1668527298978
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Will Lionel Messi score a goal before Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
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in-a-year-or-less-will-i-think-that
15253.29284525338
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
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cpmm-1
0.005183075466081402
0.05127650270631645
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1668527431337
Nathan Young
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in-a-year-or-less-will-i-think-ea-i
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In a year or less, will I think EA is a good community to be part of?
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cpmm-1
0
0.36133068306312444
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basic
MKT
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fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022-will-ther-078361760c48
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FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022: Will there be fans arrested for homosexuality?
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1.3553907967175807
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cpmm-1
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1668527712590
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Vincent Luczkow
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Who will be US Senate Majority Leader on Feb 1, 2023?
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is-the-earth-flat
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Is the Earth flat?
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cpmm-1
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10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1668537913208
Isaac King
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What will be Poland's response to the Russian missile strike (2 Poles killed)?
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cpmm-multi-1
0
4.627548576042887
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basic
e6d8c6203f33
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conditional-on-me-dying-while-signe
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Conditional on me dying while signed up with any cryonics organization, will I be revived?
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cpmm-1
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Will Paul Christiano's "Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" post still be the most upvoted post on LessWrong at the beginning of 2025?
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Will Manifold develop a user verification system for public figures by 12/31/23?
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cpmm-1
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play
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1668539621169
Carson Gale
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1668539703779
ESKI ___
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Eski Stock (Permanent)
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1668540164762
ESKI ___
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Isaac King
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