CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

HG0JsaV937gkJClFO9vy

choose-lil-basils-new-name-round-2

0

Choose Lil' Basil's new name, Round 2!

1716523140000

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715841190279

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the market for context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/what-will-manifold-name-lil-basil-b", "frameBorder": 0}}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716523141107

Bayesian

1715841191036

0

https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c

9

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…72d6418da431.jpg

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "Plants", "slug": "plants", "groupId": "77f8a35a-0f81-4411-b685-cf0d9b613d7a", "createdTime": 1715841190976}, {"name": "Mr. Basil", "slug": "mr-basil", "groupId": "c53d9296-7a91-4405-a54f-1e3171f28f76", "createdTime": 1715841191036}]

["plants", "mr-basil"]

0.25

["b52bfa39075d"]

0

kx96lKH4RYqRsbaR7agP

which-of-the-following-indexes-and

387.3510006516938

Which of the following indexes and (crypto)currencies will grow more in 5 years from today?

1873663140000

ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1715842560295

Oleg Eterevsky

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on the growth of each of the listed assets between 2024-05-16 and 2029-05-16. The asset that will grow the most will \"win\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Her...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.02051193681082, "platformFee": 6.02051193681082, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

OlegEterevsky

1718483598741

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c

11

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "a622393e126", "prob": 0.10898710032833164, "text": "S&P 500", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.30217297829552, "userId": "ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 460.2926608018591, "textFts": "'500':3 'p':2", "contractId": "kx96lKH4RYqRsbaR7agP", "createdTime": 1715842560295, "probChanges": {"day":...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…83b44d592747.jpg

1703105455482

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1715842561117}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1715842561119}]

["economics-default", "finance"]

0.25

1716447413566

1718483597198

True

0

0.49999999999999983

clOkd1NrKzQN5guM9nLj

{"NO": 144.84284612732984, "YES": 69.04034453458007}

0.6772053740131745

will-jjk-end-in-2024

451.34351584285

Will JJK end in 2024?

1735685940000

tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715843990645

Noya

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if its last chapter is officially published in Japan before the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.04476718623349818, "month": 0.10111237719680843}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.329155913401959, "platformFee": 1.5949936224079275, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

NoyaV

1719657046100

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYZ0_H2vY9Mr8HoT1lAqx7RKtsu8hU7Lk1lx7Gr=s96-c

11

3

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…feebed8844da.jpg

1679587233389

0

[{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1715843991365}, {"name": "Shonen Jump", "slug": "shonen-jump", "groupId": "c65G3QeN4hHavKcA0sS1", "createdTime": 1715843991368}, {"name": "Jujutsu Kaisen", "slug": "jujutsu-kaisen", "groupId": "50d02a97-24a7-43cf-a1de-ea7e9527b5f9", "...

["manga", "shonen-jump", "jujutsu-kaisen"]

0.25

0.5

1719657042916

0

0.5000000000000001

BQwdq2qPMMV4d1XxMSK6

{"NO": 107.75810328571117, "YES": 92.80044558213757}

0.5372900028146631

will-there-be-a-successful-orbital

55

🚀Will there be a successful orbital launch of a new rocket (=not Vega) by a european provider by the end of 2024? 🛰

1735685940000

TDaU0RS8vcRekap0vMsIP43WKHW2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715844835673

Yourchique

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8595018321706708, "platformFee": 0.8595018321706708, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Yourchique

1715891945925

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKZlW7nGMtTFr9oeOScfsOqNG9fqFEyVl0sLxholGijadkXIw=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8251cef9018c.jpg

1715593062407

0

[{"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1715844836032}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1715844836036}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 171584483603...

["europe", "space", "science-default", "aerospace", "rockets"]

0.25

0.5

1715891942653

0

0.5000000000000001

pYhTe9pZ8pztVXd9u7NB

{"NO": 71.77405625652739, "YES": 139.3261092038472}

0.34000000000000025

will-new-caledonia-become-independe

91.91159985934209

Will New Caledonia become independent of France before 2035?

2051279940000

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715844855189

Josh Wilkes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in the case of ambiguity, resolves YES if this Wikipedia page shows New Caledonia as a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "former", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " French territory", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.13688177637870647}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.211875983003741, "platformFee": 0.5898005028155587, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

JoshuaWilkes

1717672022503

0

https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…667c1a14b5c9.jpg

1662006482315

0

[{"name": "France", "slug": "france", "groupId": "HIanSY8KAqWjuDz9ruPs", "createdTime": 1715844855500}, {"name": "Collective Autonomy", "slug": "collective-autonomy", "groupId": "4jWpw4EVFoJGsAbsVeJX", "createdTime": 1715844855503}, {"name": "New Caledonia", "slug": "new-caledonia", "groupId": "aee3025a-515c-4ccf-9a7d-...

["france", "collective-autonomy", "new-caledonia"]

0.25

0.5

1717672019329

0

0.48274210806665324

rPFCJO36k1WjvvxnOg50

{"NO": 996.235982045776, "YES": 1003.9112376412737}

0.4808259749810696

will-the-assasination-attempt-at-sl

390.3511679609282

Will the assasination attempt at Slovakian PM Fico be used to crack down on opposition/press by May 2025?

1746136740000

P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3

cpmm-1

0

9.582530017344173

False

basic

public

1715853683280

Martin Modrák

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if non-trivial new legislation will be passed in Slovakia that", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a) limits the freedom of press and/or political opposition (examples include restrictions on financing, pen...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.32819454962926, "platformFee": 5.32819454962926, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MartinModrak

1718213687225

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c

15

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…9281ee3d62af.jpg

1672234503136

0

[{"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "groupId": "fiFxXettsJwAQ9hBBErv", "createdTime": 1715853683667}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715853683676}, {"name": "Slovakia", "slug": "slovakia", "groupId": "NCfqlLwB8WumtAfFI0ZY", "crea...

["central-europe", "politics-default", "slovakia"]

0.25

0.5

1717083986618

1718213685513

0

oyONJFuWs6YAP8YLw4Rn

lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-85

101.93204505009747

[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 85)

1715983140000

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715854850432

komplexkonjugat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6411435200701863, "platformFee": 0.6411435200701863, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715988551759

125

komplexkonjugat

1716080619919

0

https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "72c5c4095617", "prob": 0.93, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 91.12393444409118, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6.858790764609352, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson'...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3b58afe266c3.jpg

1698548141721

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715854851329}, {"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1715854851339}]

["gaming", "manifoldplaysciv6"]

0.25

1715951984799

1716080618272

0.93

v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2

False

0

0.49948099728131456

qy0GLJ1Q5fImgfeyjkSt

{"NO": 50.77150167958436, "YES": 790.0236018343389}

0

will-the-release-date-for-dragon-ag

623

Will the release date for Dragon Age: Dreadwolf be announced by the end of June 2024?

1719839818129

fmTwB0xKFwbA3vOpJYxu4nxJzCx2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715855175986

Mikko

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the release date for the next Dragon Age, which is currently known as Dragon Age: Dreadwolf, be announced by the end of June 2024? This question relates solely to the announcement of a release date, not whether the game is actually released on...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.2524945667763852, "month": -0.44694297658497384}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.607859807195445, "platformFee": 0.36853835846552296, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719839818129

200

MikkoN

1719839818129

0

https://firebasestorage.…f34-9f844dc4153f

8

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7ba7e4bcc64b.jpg

1710703095410

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715855176547}, {"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1715855176549}, {"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86"...

["gaming", "video-games", "release-dates"]

0.25

0.5

1719832526385

1717688686470

0.06

fmTwB0xKFwbA3vOpJYxu4nxJzCx2

0

hetRNfcfKoHTm7J43Dre

how-quickly-will-the-dutch-pvv-vvd

4157.61604184407

How quickly will the Dutch PVV - VVD - NSC - BBB coalition (Schoof I) fall?

1843423140000

108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1715856881670

Marnix Vreugdenhil

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All options will be counted as from the moment of formation of the government (specifically the 'bordesfoto') up until the moment that the prime minister offers his resignation to the king.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Update...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 48.12068929121084, "platformFee": 1.9138350886176794, "liquidityFee": 0}

240

1250

MarnixVreugdenhil

1720174928203

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL6tCroNJQ0BIgJn6NsAz-hbeS4uB3CxsJ3_N47csrT-4=s96-c

15

6

DISABLED

[{"id": "a09577104cae", "prob": 0.5313110208359724, "text": "Within 1 year", "index": 0, "poolNo": 221.81494512899818, "userId": "108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 195.6711156344156, "textFts": "'1':2 'within':1 'year':3", "contractId": "hetRNfcfKoHTm7J43Dre", "createdTime": 1715856881670, "pr...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0e2bfe09d05c.jpg

1703774351876

0

[{"name": "The Netherlands", "slug": "the-netherlands", "groupId": "7dd8a897-8a1c-463f-9532-5059e40094a8", "createdTime": 1715856882040}, {"name": "EU politics", "slug": "eu-politics", "groupId": "2c971e22-0596-42ac-8dcc-4e7a71e437b2", "createdTime": 1715856882042}, {"name": "2023 Dutch Tweede Kamer Election", "slug": ...

["the-netherlands", "eu-politics", "2023-dutch-tweede-kamer-election", "dutch-coalition", "nederland"]

0.25

1720174924555

False

0

0.5

CIU091edLLN2ljPEQXHd

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

understanding-the-bigo-live-admin-a

0

Understanding the BIGO Live Admin Application

1715889805262

sfI1wLC1REeCQUuzp8gtOb4f7R02

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1715859012942

Aaron Paul

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "BIGO Live Admin Application", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://omninoz.com/products/bigo-clone-app-admin-pannel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-prima...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715889805262

100

AaronPaul

1715889805262

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKEFJF7nqJA29d6m5y1P6zoBbad9nTcsaNt005ZEtA7GXNTOw=s96-c

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5c6ca88d97be.jpg

1715858963707

0

[{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1715859013617}]

["stocks"]

0.25

0.5

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0

HfUm6MvM7gwfd5GFBy8h

did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp

0

Did OpenAI achieve weak AGI with GPT-4o?

1717947200060

J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715859717583

Steve Sokolowski

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The GPT-4o model is a technological breakthrough far surpassing other models.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It surpasses a...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717947241029

SteveSokolowski

1717947206165

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c

265

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…43ef59e39e0c.jpg

1692195009054

0

[{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715859718614}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715859718619}, {"name": "GPT-4", "slug": "gpt4", "groupId": "eBnKor4XWTFwJQA6TOpd", "createdTime": 1715859718616}, {"name": "🖥️ T...

["openai", "ai", "gpt4", "technology-default", "ai-safety"]

0.25

1717947171933

["6d5854a209da"]

0

QLDyg4WMa6vSmKHaoQh6

will-home-team-win-may-18-2024-matc

16312.128265337353

Will home team win? (May 18, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️

1716098400000

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1715862249181

Franklin Baldo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Will home team win? (May 18, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Saturday, May 18, 2024. The matches featured in this m...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 54.236385234798426, "platformFee": 54.236385234798426, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716227187592

2125

FranklinBaldo

1716098400000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

13

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "fd8abc06b333", "prob": 0.01, "text": "13:30 - Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 - Bundesliga 🇩🇪", "index": 0, "poolNo": 943.2257891467267, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10.601915379186455, "textFts": "'13':1 '30':2 '98':8 'borussia':3 'bundesliga':9 'darmstadt':7 '...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…3a2b0168385e.jpg

1659579722296

0

[{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1715862250043}]

["soccer"]

0.25

1716093272217

1716093288206

0.5

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

False

0

HEqNPXqhuktmhrQNyBDu

week-1-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

3080.4574721383315

(Week 1) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1725940740000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715863126630

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6lQ0Xa27ok.png?alt=media&token=872c5b62-7502-484b-9d31-0117d975fa4e", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 65.18397037645967, "platformFee": 14.706528097164846, "liquidityFee": 0}

15

1000

10thOfficial

1720242419575

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

37

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e757c96cfda8", "prob": 0.42169533981139284, "text": "Baltimore Ravens beat Kansas City Chiefs (09/05) 8:20 PM (NBC)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 47.288517501312576, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.85053891430445, "textFts": "'09/05':7 '20':9 '8':8 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'chi...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…721f471a7552.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715863127173}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715863127176}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715...

["sports-betting", "nfl", "football", "tv", "sports-default"]

0.25

1720242416469

1719793544758

False

old

0

f4IcJ3s3J4W9zDv4jSol

week-2-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

176.5026692737178

(Week 2) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1726545540000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715863299438

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6lQ0Xa27ok.png?alt=media&token=872c5b62-7502-484b-9d31-0117d975fa4e", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.0549684812734275, "platformFee": 1.8662887307870812, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718840890707

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

11

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "aafaae913cb0", "prob": 0.6167358310934224, "text": "Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins (09/12) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.71323088735924, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.707862696800227, "textFts": "'09/12':6 '15':8 '8':7 'beat':3 'bill':2 'buffalo...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6747e92de26d.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715863299934}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715863299941}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1...

["sports-default", "nfl", "sports-betting", "tv", "football"]

0.25

1718840887599

1715870147946

False

old

0

urpnb01rji9hGKMoAJdh

week-3-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

115.78032884426851

(Week 3) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1727150340000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715863505199

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6lQ0Xa27ok.png?alt=media&token=872c5b62-7502-484b-9d31-0117d975fa4e", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.368170154658678, "platformFee": 1.0478147852109707, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718840534379

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "96d04e79031f", "prob": 0.2848920073085165, "text": "New England Patriots beat New York Jets (09/19) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.779539511744769, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 39.60825343064102, "textFts": "'09/19':8 '15':10 '8':9 'beat':4 'england':...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c57ad4cb3aea.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715863505575}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715863505587}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 171586350...

["football", "tv", "sports-betting", "nfl", "sports-default"]

0.25

1718840531325

1715870241407

False

old

0

7U854dacqWC3LaRpM7cN

week-4-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

126.48787314489593

(Week 4) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1727755140000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715863672482

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6lQ0Xa27ok.png?alt=media&token=872c5b62-7502-484b-9d31-0117d975fa4e", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4469996773147806, "platformFee": 1.1509636899952838, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718840129698

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "811eaee49e36", "prob": 0.64, "text": "Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants (09/26) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.33333333333333, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.750000000000004, "textFts": "'09/26':7 '15':9 '8':8 'beat':3 'cowboy':2 'dalla':1 'giant':...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…76f3ea93dbb9.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715863673370}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715863673369}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715863673368}, {"name": ...

["tv", "nfl", "sports-default", "football", "sports-betting"]

0.25

1718840126511

1715870267182

False

old

0

1Iy7rYvx9JGNOqzSpZ8L

week-5-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

77.78032884426851

(Week 5) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1728359940000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715863838127

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6lQ0Xa27ok.png?alt=media&token=872c5b62-7502-484b-9d31-0117d975fa4e", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3379580039540122, "platformFee": 0.7686760595623814, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

350

10thOfficial

1718839743115

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "d595d7ae05dc", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Atlanta Falcons (10/03) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'10/03':7 '15':9 '8':8 'atlanta':5 'bay':2 'beat':4 'buccan':3 'falcon':6 'pm':10 'prime':11 ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…830e2d7d312b.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715863838558}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715863838561}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715863838564}, {"name": "🏟...

["football", "nfl", "tv", "sports-default", "sports-betting"]

0.25

1718839740070

1715870327986

False

old

0

jKLSJnusGRIyUnYKptjM

week-6-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

67.78032884426851

(Week 6) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1728964740000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715863978403

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0405901273036275, "platformFee": 0.9372890006525669, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

350

10thOfficial

1718839455232

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "34a30cdd95db", "prob": 0.6178950037125471, "text": "San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks (10/10) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 31.791131994951538, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.65957047705161, "textFts": "'10/10':7 '15':9 '49ers':3 '8':8 'beat':4 'fran...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…65f6b70cdeb4.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715863978809}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715863978807}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715863978823}, {"name": "Sp...

["football", "tv", "nfl", "sports-betting", "sports-default"]

0.25

1718839452185

1715870358602

False

old

0

fVcExGxrGz2n9IYtdwTC

week-7-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

100

(Week 7) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1729569540000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715864146379

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6562703140429356, "platformFee": 1.2694073027259114, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

375

10thOfficial

1717310330187

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

4

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "75eb44f586aa", "prob": 0.38159864793931847, "text": "Denver Broncos beat New Orleans Saints (10/17) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.63849520804703, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.825249000946943, "textFts": "'10/17':7 '15':9 '8':8 'beat':3 'bronco':2 'denve...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c579ba45521c.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715864146769}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715864146780}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 171586414...

["tv", "football", "sports-betting", "sports-default", "nfl"]

0.25

1717310327029

1715870396920

False

old

0

HlBZLpPNLyh0Ig2bjsH7

week-8-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

114.58007000450286

(Week 8) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1730174340000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715864312411

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.304637157391713, "platformFee": 1.0047136690485798, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718838845050

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "de24ce137b54", "prob": 0.382104996287453, "text": "Minnesota Vikings beat Los Angeles Rams (10/24) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.65957047705161, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.791131994951538, "textFts": "'10/24':7 '15':9 '8':8 'angel':5 'beat':3 'los':4 ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c7dbe3f34672.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715864312776}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715864312780}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 171586...

["tv", "sports-default", "sports-betting", "nfl", "football"]

0.25

1718838841995

1715870424700

False

old

0

0.5000000000000001

nZNuODQCxN0LfvO2db1R

{"NO": 60.13553273022696, "YES": 166.29103536607627}

0.2655851441631632

will-there-be-a-way-for-two-users-t

68

Will there be a way for two users to bet against each other without paying Manifold? [6 months]

1731801540000

XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715864323804

Fion

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fees are paid to Manifold when betting against the AMM or filling somebody else's limit order, but not when your own limit orders get filled after you place them. A consequence of this is that if two users want to make a bet, they can't do so on th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8544823169618613, "platformFee": 0.8544823169618613, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Fion

1717022142474

0

https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c051ad1afecc.jpg

1671292812077

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715864324122}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715864324138}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

0.5

1715900860429

1717022141144

0

MxVWln1sW1ijcPBjhoXI

week-9-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-game

131.81305799385166

(Week 9) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1730782740000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715864455052

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5247971870061625, "platformFee": 0.4424308932623613, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

375

10thOfficial

1718838227377

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "1b8c10dec421", "prob": 0.45, "text": "Houston Texans beat New York Jets (10/31) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 22.61335084333227, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.638539919628332, "textFts": "'10/31':7 '15':9 '8':8 'beat':3 'houston':1 'jet':6 'new':4 'pm':10 '...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…bcb722b43f0e.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715864455491}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715864455490}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715864455499}, {"name": "Sp...

["football", "nfl", "tv", "sports-betting", "sports-default"]

0.25

1718838135280

1718838226077

False

old

0

biBrFHFkpxvYNmAhiv8w

week-10-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

91.44849362015692

(Week 10) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1731387540000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715864589682

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.251816389629236, "platformFee": 0.46079115836837276, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

350

10thOfficial

1718837454860

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "77e7f1f7a950", "prob": 0.48103753974948926, "text": "Cincinnati Bengals beat Baltimore Ravens (11/07) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.06919257092752, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.966803753729547, "textFts": "'11/07':6 '15':8 '8':7 'baltimor':4 'beat':3 'b...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…05e8c546a546.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715864590147}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715864590143}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 171586...

["tv", "sports-default", "sports-betting", "nfl", "football"]

0.25

1718837451820

1715870604688

False

old

0

ba9qPquVCoy4z8pBKbSV

week-11-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

115

(Week 11) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1731992340000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715864719250

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.142833386526385, "platformFee": 1.1929239921673946, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

350

10thOfficial

1718837116912

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "2cc6c56d9632", "prob": 0.2750285469066485, "text": "Washington Commanders beat Philadelphia Eagles (11/14) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.39814634483611, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.58930120569988, "textFts": "'11/14':6 '15':8 '8':7 'beat':3 'command':2...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…bfe634ba6daa.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715864719755}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715864719747}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "cre...

["football", "sports-betting", "sports-default", "tv", "nfl"]

0.25

1718837113870

1715870625751

False

old

0

ZPzfoEWWOoGzey5Yc2l1

week-12-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

123.67794002707055

(Week 12) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1732597140000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715864866939

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.3265400255782205, "platformFee": 1.2970848316249224, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

325

10thOfficial

1718836147200

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "20ffbefd3ada", "prob": 0.48103753974948926, "text": "Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns (11/21) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.06919257092752, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.966803753729547, "textFts": "'11/21':6 '15':8 '8':7 'beat':3 'brown':5 'cle...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…51ef062395a9.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715864867341}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715864867342}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715864867356}, {"nam...

["tv", "sports-betting", "nfl", "football", "sports-default"]

0.25

1718836144150

1715870640485

False

old

0

inikuJSMwsmmLYuRV6zn

week-13-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

82.78032884426851

(Week 13) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1733201940000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715865013606

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6756282672014908, "platformFee": 0.7277319942131275, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718835841613

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "20b01ff8970b", "prob": 0.3968902913752788, "text": "Chicago Bears beat Detroit Lions (11/28) 12:30 PM (FOX)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.28042661911422, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.817892135017516, "textFts": "'11/28':6 '12':7 '30':8 'bear':2 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'de...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b46a24b126c9.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715865014623}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715865014625}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 171586501...

["sports-betting", "football", "tv", "nfl", "sports-default"]

0.25

1718835838557

1715870659017

False

old

0

rmF1utEZWtjusomBKUWp

week-14-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

45

(Week 14) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1733806740000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715865142646

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6531275890249575, "platformFee": 0.6531275890249575, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

325

10thOfficial

1716143970563

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

3

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "42da44f9c0e8", "prob": 0.48103753974948926, "text": "Green Bay Packers beat Detroit Lions (12/05) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 24.06919257092752, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.966803753729547, "textFts": "'12/05':7 '15':9 '8':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'detroit':5...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…fd0d1c2901ad.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715865143033}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715865143031}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715865143056...

["sports-default", "tv", "football", "nfl", "sports-betting"]

0.25

1716143967174

1715870675081

False

old

0

W80g6tKbDotluUWy1LTS

week-15-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

69.78032884426851

(Week 15) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1734411540000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715865264135

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5458258725423786, "platformFee": 0.5506986615080406, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718835228151

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "df0bcffb2497", "prob": 0.3291271349608398, "text": "Los Angeles Rams beat San Francisco 49ers (12/12) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.510628739138255, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 35.69260757628042, "textFts": "'12/12':8 '15':10 '49ers':7 '8':9 'angel':2 'be...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…35f602faaa85.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715865264676}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715865264673}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715865264678}, {"nam...

["tv", "nfl", "sports-betting", "sports-default", "football"]

0.25

1718835225113

1715870745852

False

old

0

rXHnc50FwMCug409sANa

week-16-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

146.19670432557726

(Week 16) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1735016340000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715865419736

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.434927503750149, "platformFee": 0.7504268366181989, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718834605762

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e7f34fe8370f", "prob": 0.3968902913752788, "text": "Cleveland Browns beat Cincinnati Bengals (12/19) 8:15 PM (Prime)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.28042661911422, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.817892135017516, "textFts": "'12/19':6 '15':8 '8':7 'beat':3 'bengal':5 'brow...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7cfcbf9390f0.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715865420136}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1715865420133}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1715865420145}, {"name": ...

["sports-default", "tv", "nfl", "football", "sports-betting"]

0.25

1718834602719

1715870770352

False

old

0

1rJs0mNteNNamedYBW4a

week-17-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

130

(Week 17) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1735621140000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715865764940

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.018162327199666, "platformFee": 0.8623605721691251, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718834214824

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "83b297dcdaf7", "prob": 0.6320488165330106, "text": "Kansas City Chiefs beat Pittsburgh Steelers (12/25) 1:00 PM (CBS)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.7657578881122, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 19.07479149831468, "textFts": "'00':9 '1':8 '12/25':7 'beat':4 'cbs':11 'chief':...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0470d057f01e.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715865765400}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715865765404}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "cre...

["sports-default", "sports-betting", "football", "nfl", "tv"]

0.25

1718834211771

1715870697690

False

old

0

SXhRecD5xV8MKe2BWqoj

week-18-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-gam

158

(Week 18) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1736139540000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715865950403

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.935132758889724, "platformFee": 0.7577334712757865, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

10thOfficial

1718833147681

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

6

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "269fcc24eb30", "prob": 0.4048449033872022, "text": "Cleveland Browns beat Baltimore Ravens (01/05) TBD", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.619079271220738, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.31173175964017, "textFts": "'01/05':6 'baltimor':4 'beat':3 'brown':2 'cleveland':1 'raven...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…21e93ff4e3ab.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1715865951149}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715865951150}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 171586...

["sports-betting", "sports-default", "tv", "football", "nfl"]

0.25

1718833144621

1715870714508

False

old

0

3M2tOFZyOtl6QR9J7qwO

playoffs-nfl-2024-megamarket-all-ga

0

(Playoffs) NFL 2024 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide

1739163540000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715866168254

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TBD", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

325

10thOfficial

1715866177629

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "afc74ffae576", "prob": 0.5, "text": "NFL Wild Card Round (01/11/25)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25, "textFts": "'01/11/25':5 'card':3 'nfl':1 'round':4 'wild':2", "contractId": "3M2tOFZyOtl6QR9J7qwO", "createdTime": 1715866168254, "probChan...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…8de77dec5ffd.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715866168768}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715866168767}, {"name": "NFL Playoffs", "slug": "nfl-playoffs", "groupId": "d7b6ca7e-7d97-497d-851e-22f2e7a...

["sports-default", "football", "nfl-playoffs", "sports-betting", "nfl"]

0.25

False

old

0

0.49999999999999994

GY3sdPrvswQcjClKoGv4

{"NO": 153.5285695470215, "YES": 65.13445692553839}

0.7021240491532658

will-lauren-de-laguna-pass-the-bar

55

Will Lauren De Laguna pass the bar and be a practicing attorney in at least one USA state by the end of 2026?

1798779540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715866466707

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of now she is not a lawyer yet", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17853389060975067}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3888188994995312, "platformFee": 0.08261155347894536, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1718892506913

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0f942e04ab45.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1715866467005}, {"name": "Drama", "slug": "drama", "groupId": "R43etpZETahlV98T5b9u", "createdTime": 1715866467039}, {"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "createdTime": 171586646704...

["destinygg", "drama", "dalibanhq", "internet-influencers", "youtube"]

0.25

0.5

1718892503828

0

HypaZTuTGfq0WutjDcfL

taylor-swift-kansas-city-chiefs-gam

256.07884761519125

Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker

1736225940000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715867257530

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Will Taylor Swift be at the game?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.1891059560453523, "platformFee": 1.6678505744109653, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

500

10thOfficial

1719811950443

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

7

2

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "9b63375e4392", "prob": 0.8299999999999969, "text": "Week 1: KC @ Baltimore Ravens (09/05)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 55.24011756174338, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11.314240946381418, "textFts": "'09/05':6 '1':2 'baltimor':4 'kc':3 'raven':5 'week':1", "contractId": "Hyp...

0.13333333333333333

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "👸 Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1715867257957}, {"name": "Entertainment", "slug": "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "groupId": "YjinY1aCMoxH9UyfXCrv", "createdTime": 1715867257969}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "...

["taylor-swift", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "entertainment", "celebrities"]

0.25

1719811947385

False

old

0

0.05058454958348082

ooEHq7jr5HKE7nHDdxg5

{"NO": 863.8405433735347, "YES": 4556.489462177588}

0

will-biden-andor-trump-die-beforedu

17409.791756695802

Will Biden and/or Trump die before/during the June 27th debate?

1719604855310

vltQwASIvzbnSQnM6vS9Y0OC1qr2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

NO

public

1715867891515

Oscar A

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if either candidate is dead from natural causes (no assassinations) before the end of the debate. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03268749866165325}

0

{"creatorFee": 55.06809825392062, "platformFee": 24.707066078882058, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719604855310

1000

OscarA

1719604855310

0

https://storage.googleap…6vS9Y0OC1qr2.png

53

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ec7e10a20238.jpg

1702154257507

0

[{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1715867892196}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715867892198}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election"...

["the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1719591967618

0.01

vltQwASIvzbnSQnM6vS9Y0OC1qr2

0

0.2719446374892831

GMMWZqFsPUe0Np9dxfoo

{"NO": 638.7568416277511, "YES": 3174.181844439383}

0.06991082777178356

in-a-year-will-i-believe-humming-re

4179.421874278704

In a year, will I believe humming reduces respiratory infections?

1747522740000

k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2

cpmm-1

0

9.834300891385066

False

basic

public

1715868323394

Mikhail Samin⚡️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Speculatively, humming might be effective against infections via increasing nitric oxide concentrations in the nose: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NBZvpcBx4ewqkdCdT/do-you-believe-in-hundred-dollar-bills-lying-on-the...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.17084007906177992}

0

{"creatorFee": 68.38719594159741, "platformFee": 6.468194434514101, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ms

1718515287779

0

https://firebasestorage.…72c-20b24bbfa032

26

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6383d3828b6c.jpg

1644678337190

0

[{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1715868323834}, {"name": "Medical", "slug": "medical", "groupId": "b8881d49-d5d8-45e7-8334-41ac03d955f0", "createdTime": 1715868323850}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "crea...

["covid-d7a9361d772d", "medical", "medicine", "infectious-disease", "health"]

0.25

0.5

1718515284719

1717725831596

0

0.3409565437629851

UwfzZ1tarYN8e8O8QjWZ

{"NO": 259.6223932338332, "YES": 13297.264924236044}

0

will-this-david-morris-sapphire-dia

12608.449969343776

Will this David Morris Sapphire & Diamond Necklace sell for >$5 million at its Sotheby's auction? (pics included)

1717787768792

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

NO

public

1715870034847

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sotheby's auction house in New York is about to auction off a very valuable necklace from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "David Morris", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Morris_(jew...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.32101378142861936}

0

{"creatorFee": 48.42622195606785, "platformFee": 2.422318718613372, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717787768792

1000

Ziddletwix

1717787827804

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

9

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…39d350056309.jpg

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715870035213}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1715870035217}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "X...

["culture-default", "economics-default", "entertainment", "celebrities", "arts"]

0.25

0.5

1717787755553

1717787826864

0.01

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

0

hHxLuRZUwD1UaXPpX0Ka

on-june-30-2024-who-will-have-the-t

3563.893273954965

On June 30 2024, who will have the top ranking model on the LMSYS ELO board?

1719788340000

PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1715871786717

0xSMW

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As seen here:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 53.17738461959289, "platformFee": 7.650672262220959, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719816197707

1000

0xSMW

1719788340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30

32

3

ANYONE

[{"id": "24030646904e", "prob": 0.97, "text": "OpenAI", "index": 0, "poolNo": 609.4426796816783, "userId": "PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.644096679740002, "textFts": "'openai':1", "contractId": "hHxLuRZUwD1UaXPpX0Ka", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63", "c...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…07e972a5def9.jpg

1692254479822

0

[{"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1715871787475}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715871787474}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1715871787477}...

["gpt4-speculation", "ai", "llms"]

0.25

1719783224907

1719640367462

0.97

PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63

False

0

0.5

sRHyXF7mqlWcvVRQeRsC

{"NO": 149.78570776604897, "YES": 66.76204391689393}

0.6916982817967874

will-i-regret-the-extra-time-spent

71.40150605133148

Will I regret the extra time spent working to save up for my wedding?

1767329940000

1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715874664580

NBAP

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm getting married next year. Currently, I am pulling extra shifts (approximately 15-20 extra hours per week) to save up money for the wedding. All told, the wedding will probably cost USD 30-35k, of which I will be contributing half.", "type": "t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.014339387833288475}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.8036084616154981, "platformFee": 0.27601455495534033, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

NBAP

1717685718757

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a368861a6157.jpg

1685661001561

0

[{"name": "Marriage", "slug": "marriage", "groupId": "08837126-55f4-49b3-be25-2db7d265a051", "createdTime": 1716133284698}, {"name": "Work", "slug": "work", "groupId": "58f60e9e-3d80-48fe-b7f0-912a6e4dc840", "createdTime": 1716133295261}, {"name": "Happiness", "slug": "happiness-c6b494f14fde", "groupId": "4a2ec703-65af...

["marriage", "work", "happiness-c6b494f14fde", "regret"]

0.25

0.5

1717685714103

0

0.13999999999999993

7BVJi3Ftb8mvGaysAX0E

{"NO": 230.6750858197043, "YES": 409.7955581374257}

0.08394318416343535

will-see-new-edits-no-you-need-to-w

161

Will "[SEE NEW EDITS] No, *You* Need to Write Clearer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715875981998

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.6022209312871131, "platformFee": 0.6022209312871131, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

250

LessWrong

1716130178895

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0df3fd23d220.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715875982598}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1716130175091

0

0.49999999999999956

qJOoTysRxtww8y6G1noo

{"NO": 994.9874371066232, "YES": 10.050378152592145}

1

will-trump-beat-biden-in-pennsylvan

1042.3302010350246

Will Trump beat Biden in Pennsylvania polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1717873140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715877299098

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/", "class": "break-a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.040000000000000036}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.212215781758426, "platformFee": 2.1012979778717407, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718135573767

100

ManifoldPolitics

1717873140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

12

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…d68e5920b61a.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715877299408}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715877299423}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "polling-averages", "politics-default", "us-politics", "pennsylvania"]

0.25

0.5

1717846921988

0.99

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

0

0.5000000000000026

pQuhYdfw7b4ZIDBwOCds

{"NO": 994.9874371066201, "YES": 10.05037815259223}

1

will-trump-beat-biden-in-michigan-p

973.1403757471135

Will Trump beat Biden in Michigan polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1717873140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715877365791

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08999999999999997}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.8021042708854274, "platformFee": 1.4552930566118507, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718135554758

100

ManifoldPolitics

1717873140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

11

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…be2447368cfc.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715877366126}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715877366131}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "polling-averages", "2024-us-presidential-election", "michigan"]

0.25

0.5

1717865829818

1717977124257

0.99

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

0

Z2bE6NdGUCpiHbwy2MpN

what-will-happen-at-biden-and-trump

60921.303925523884

What will happen at Biden and Trump's First Debate? [ADD RESPONSES]

1719544461991

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1715877414219

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will be cancelled if the debate does not happen", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 605.1064427140321, "platformFee": 112.11897085527298, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719976426539

3825

strutheo

1719544461991

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

193

38

ANYONE

[{"id": "7f367f55bdcc", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Both of them mention 'AI' or 'Artificial intelligence' at least once", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.0531875493570624, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 204.70409691393147, "textFts": "'ai':5 'artifici':7 'intellig':8 'least':10 'mention':4",...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a6507723adb8.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1715877414621}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715877414624}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime"...

["debate", "politics-default", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.25

1719544435195

1719543930188

0.92

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

False

0

0.4999999999999999

KyHcksoV0JqeIiDxRz9z

{"NO": 994.9874371066193, "YES": 10.050378152592117}

1

will-trump-beat-biden-in-wisconsin

1023.9425576000954

Will Trump beat Biden in Wisconsin polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1717873140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715877435163

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/", "class": "break-anywh...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.12646708406890528}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.751752346537967, "platformFee": 1.7707278223707998, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718135441384

100

ManifoldPolitics

1717873140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

6

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1126948d32c9.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715877435516}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715877435511}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics...

["polling-averages", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "politics-default", "wisconsin"]

0.25

0.5

1717846870811

0.99

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

0

0.49999999999999983

QAgwFbsZvKhn0Z0FwJRI

{"NO": 936.6053993425365, "YES": 10.676854956227732}

1

will-trump-beat-biden-in-nevada-pol

892.9086375553577

Will Trump beat Biden in Nevada polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1717873140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715877501261

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/", "class": "break-anywhere...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.011294854039569646}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.051553663224783, "platformFee": 2.4437514578411887, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718135411040

100

ManifoldPolitics

1717873140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

8

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6f00d51745f2.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715877501631}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715877501646}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-elect...

["politics-default", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "polling-averages", "nevada"]

0.25

0.5

1717814316962

0.99

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

0

0.5

TtRlTRoDhjuAmvBovbi8

{"NO": 599.763441406574, "YES": 16.673240330467394}

0.972952225549777

will-trump-beat-biden-in-arizona-po

586.350477393811

Will Trump beat Biden in Arizona polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715877617009

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.058147178899370044}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5699438816526308, "platformFee": 2.6477971721051268, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ManifoldPolitics

1717807599017

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…70bfe809a541.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715877617413}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715877617429}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "polling-averages", "us-politics", "politics-default", "arizona"]

0.25

0.5

1717807595908

1716036308631

0

0.5000000000000006

Wx3f9zWRWVhLOaUOFSW3

{"NO": 994.9874371066194, "YES": 10.050378152592145}

1

will-trump-beat-biden-in-georgia-po

990.7959308555852

Will Trump beat Biden in Georgia polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1718135399506

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715877721632

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.05950140557038597}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.653385986530559, "platformFee": 2.6254009651553574, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718135399506

100

ManifoldPolitics

1718135399506

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

8

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ef64e326c848.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "Georgia", "slug": "georgia", "groupId": "1SZUm3xkSdrsYdSmI8TZ", "createdTime": 1715877722026}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715877722045}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLO...

["georgia", "polling-averages", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1717807203256

0.99

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

0

0.4999999999999968

nxmziwhYOLZq5kn8skhb

{"NO": 994.9874371066244, "YES": 10.050378152592046}

1

will-trump-beat-biden-in-north-caro

1555.39988931376

Will Trump beat Biden in North Carolina polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1718135381581

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715877806550

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/", "class": "break...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.020847690505224614}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.505653313508786, "platformFee": 2.433774420056505, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718135381581

100

ManifoldPolitics

1718135381581

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

9

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a10a2fc040ad.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715877806893}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715877806898}, {"name": "North Carolina",...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "polling-averages", "north-carolina", "politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1717846886358

0.99

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

0

0.49999999999999994

uM38wzavhzjxMGZcgJL8

{"NO": 365.3097182501186, "YES": 27.374032226411373}

0.9302898778133997

will-trump-beat-biden-in-pennsylvan-d8d56fdc3c28

363.51771002422635

Will Trump beat Biden in Pennsylvania polling at the beginning of July? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715877940046

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/", "class": "break-a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.05415336404149451, "month": 0.2815682902168225}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.846589108853476, "platformFee": 2.26632629083496, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ManifoldPolitics

1720024962130

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

7

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…19ac909b2e26.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715877940369}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715877940372}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "polling-averages", "pennsylvania", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1720024958589

0

0.5000000000000003

oRpRw2AtBDxzqNYwNzrz

{"NO": 364.7334793558276, "YES": 27.417280195011045}

0.9300848474030391

will-trump-beat-biden-in-michigan-p-fa84e69bdc7b

799.9112248555423

Will Trump beat Biden in Michigan polling at the beginning of July? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715877977813

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.1800848474030391, "month": 0.3973082018597266}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.71840142952785, "platformFee": 1.947031073316423, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ManifoldPolitics

1719903913532

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

12

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…2319f7a70c0e.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715877978137}, {"name": "Michigan", "slug": "michigan", "groupId": "a3ee199f-ddd7-4ea8-9611-e3b31e6b77ea", "createdTime": 1715877978138}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a...

["politics-default", "michigan", "polling-averages", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1719903910352

0

0.49999999999999994

UwcV5GpT2FhWmGFVaGfd

{"NO": 153.5285695470215, "YES": 65.13445692553839}

0.7021240491532658

will-the-life-shortening-effects-of

55

Will the life shortening effects of the gears catch up to Luffy at the end of the series?

1735711140000

bGw0QS96m5choCqy2CDH9dqAywk1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715878010951

Wesley Murra (GARBONZO)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7357152264892383, "platformFee": 0.7357152264892383, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

WesleyMurraGARBONZO

1716343147494

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLcLzLWU8ARomvICLIi80qmZUwVd-3XZQfNWvLxrb3BzNE2IIw=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

1715873966946

0

[{"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1715878011180}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1715878011177}, {"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24...

["anime", "one-piece-theories", "one-piece-stocks", "manga"]

0.25

0.5

1716343144104

0

0.4999999999999991

Sh9XZ0mKdLBPmubYHOJJ

{"NO": 382.89770994057625, "YES": 26.116635697695813}

0.9361473846181592

will-trump-beat-biden-in-wisconsin-d8dd98a7f4d6

1083.791699418906

Will Trump beat Biden in Wisconsin polling at the beginning of July? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715878110658

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/", "class": "break-anywh...

BINARY

{"day": 0.0661473846181615, "week": 0.29614738461815904, "month": 0.07614738461816106}

0

{"creatorFee": 19.11042242670534, "platformFee": 1.7222568502302908, "liquidityFee": 0}

125

100

ManifoldPolitics

1720222902622

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

15

3

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…13c9f10e3308.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715878110966}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715878110974}, {"name": "Wisconsin", "slu...

["polling-averages", "2024-us-presidential-election", "wisconsin", "politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1720222899526

0

0.5000000000000003

F8GfRvkS1FXCSWkwgzPK

{"NO": 364.49573777637374, "YES": 27.435163058436743}

0.93

will-trump-beat-biden-in-nevada-pol-903cf5184858

1771.7629153331377

Will Trump beat Biden in Nevada polling at the beginning of July? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715878158644

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/", "class": "break-anywhere...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.030000000000000027}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.98359277800908, "platformFee": 5.583628741522168, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ManifoldPolitics

1718397402144

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

14

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6197e2178e6b.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715878159442}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715878159558}, {"name": "Nevada", "slug": "nevada", "groupId": "7564dc2c-fbd...

["politics-default", "polling-averages", "nevada", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1718397399011

1718135297516

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

0

0.49999999999999994

bnJiBByrJirDvKn25kzv

{"NO": 435.8898943540389, "YES": 22.94157338705775}

0.9499999999999936

will-trump-beat-biden-in-arizona-po-a5750158ba61

875.1211824386323

Will Trump beat Biden in Arizona polling at the beginning of July? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715878192424

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.09999999999999565, "month": 0.09999999999999565}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.289923615095748, "platformFee": 2.0821902508963066, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ManifoldPolitics

1719646949467

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

8

4

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e72e145fbfcb.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715878192731}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715878192724}, {"name": "Arizona", "slug": "arizona", "groupId": "31009d8b-f...

["polling-averages", "politics-default", "arizona", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1719646946403

0

0.5000000000000004

nN9Zs9O5RtlZlNVa9GCl

{"NO": 317.97973380564844, "YES": 31.448545101657587}

0.91

will-trump-beat-biden-in-georgia-po-cbc6e3014133

683.5981860630013

Will Trump beat Biden in Georgia polling at the beginning of July? [538 average +6%]

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715878317634

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/", "class": "break-anywhe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.021762346738355864}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.155324538546297, "platformFee": 1.9879359856093726, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ManifoldPolitics

1719619572719

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

5

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…9472eabcf200.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715878318573}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715878318572}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-defa...

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "polling-averages", "georgia"]

0.25

0.5

1719619569457

0

0.49999999999999994

PobsnJ8o7CUHYXEKV5fx

{"NO": 435.88989435404943, "YES": 22.941573387057176}

1

will-chatgpt-4o-be-able-to-explain

631.6063197228194

Will ChatGPT 4o be able to explain Dorothy Parker's "Resumé"?

1715894507677

vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715878371931

Forrest Taylor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is the poem. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Enough Rope/Résumé - Wikisource, the free online library", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Enough_Rope/R%C3%A9sum%C3%A9", "class": "break-a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.956790790489354, "platformFee": 2.956790790489354, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715894507677

100

TiredCliche

1715894560745

0

https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…062108964eee.jpg

1683826070915

0

[{"name": "ChatGPT vs human", "slug": "chatgpt-vs-human", "groupId": "4YDaclzExYDCR6lWw0VP", "createdTime": 1715878375700}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1715878375742}, {"name": "Poetry", "slug": "poetry", "groupId": "da036d49-fa4e-4da3-a6ad-bfe4eb633c8c", "cr...

["chatgpt-vs-human", "chatgpt", "poetry", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1715881979319

1715894558636

0.95

vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2

0

0.5000000000000006

oR36Adnpa2vv93t8QLl6

{"NO": 506.7743779209944, "YES": 19.732647181225474}

0.9625215880502366

will-trump-beat-biden-in-north-caro-7a244df850d4

429

Will Trump beat Biden in North Carolina polling at the beginning of July? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715878373452

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/", "class": "break...

BINARY

{"day": 0.05809935815194711, "week": 0.05809935815194711, "month": 0.05809935815194711}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.7434433011187487, "platformFee": 1.9030631685374906, "liquidityFee": 0}

200

100

ManifoldPolitics

1720222492849

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

3

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0d43b8368a57.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715878376447}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715878376456}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-...

["polling-averages", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "north-carolina", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1720222489641

0

0.49999999999999983

lxD3QXWLhMj99F5W3I26

{"NO": 399.4637623163221, "YES": 25.033559845364252}

1

will-chatgpt-4o-be-able-to-explain-f5efd3e0e3b9

445.924284192888

Will ChatGPT 4o be able to explain Dorothy Parker's "Resumé"?

1715894451316

vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715878374449

Forrest Taylor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is the poem. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Enough Rope/Résumé - Wikisource, the free online library", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Enough_Rope/R%C3%A9sum%C3%A9", "class": "break-a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.8270903218032815, "platformFee": 2.8270903218032815, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715894451316

100

TiredCliche

1715894476538

0

https://firebasestorage.…536-985190ee8661

8

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…01d72cc0854e.jpg

1683826070915

0

[{"name": "ChatGPT vs human", "slug": "chatgpt-vs-human", "groupId": "4YDaclzExYDCR6lWw0VP", "createdTime": 1715878379468}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715878379506}, {"name": "Poetry", "slug": "poetry", "groupId": "da036d49-fa4e-4da3-a6ad-bfe4eb633c8c", "createdTi...

["chatgpt-vs-human", "ai", "poetry", "chatgpt"]

0.25

0.5

1715887391214

1715894473993

0.94

vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2

0

0.8383377189200046

nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m

{"NO": 600756.9765143631, "YES": 31375.52089600532}

1

will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p

869789.8790225531

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)

1717873140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

1.6343588983850763

True

plus

YES

public

1715878642787

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywh...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02526490480731458}

0

{"creatorFee": 2068.4542223255025, "platformFee": 1992.9352775602927, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717882466969

50600

ManifoldPolitics

1717873140000

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

606

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…05030e813d61.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715878643098}, {"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715878643112}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-u...

["us-politics", "polling-averages", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717869743068

1717881133850

0.99

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0

0.5405465694442648

l6vOZFr7LZ3KRsszwDHp

{"NO": 403186.3526991526, "YES": 9134.724675425798}

0.9811064250157323

will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-22b14142a89a

691943.1061092048

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)

1720465140000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

1.5553407092076141

False

plus

public

1715878687415

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywh...

BINARY

{"day": -0.0015973896544930755, "week": 0.1487094454613146, "month": 0.40119042678786565}

0

{"creatorFee": 4974.117520580481, "platformFee": 3979.583509318537, "liquidityFee": 0}

11244.468395386672

52100

ManifoldPolitics

1720237771207

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

659

17

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…869399ff6c56.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "Polling Averages", "slug": "polling-averages", "groupId": "a5359a8a-3b61-4e6b-9cd1-ab9d29ac2c4c", "createdTime": 1715878687722}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715878687742}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId"...

["polling-averages", "us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1720237767917

1719945896475

0

0.5

9tSAOWW4devF0BUZoyZu

{"NO": 104.36968014490598, "YES": 95.81326670845486}

0.5213714843620494

if-scott-alexander-organizes-a-covi

136

If Scott Alexander organizes a Covid Origins Debate, will judges rule for lab leak? [Resolves 50% if no debate by 2025]

1735804740000

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715879206276

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a new version of my market ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "R6b6OlKzgt8kOrod10lw", "label": "/Joshua/scott-alexander-is-planning-a-covid"}}, {"text": " , except that this market does not N/A and has a shorte...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.5349314086363033, "platformFee": 0.9122635583347287, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Joshua

1717053579367

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…759d3bfabc3e.jpg

1645516283433

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715879206606}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1715879206617}, {"name": "Scott Alexander", "slug": "scott-alexander", "groupId": "FeV6PWIm7Jv4bVJ1OXBC",...

["culture-default", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "scott-alexander", "covid-origins", "politics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717053575911

0

0.49999999999999983

uKWv3KtfZAi9EN3YVhrA

{"NO": 10.050378152592117, "YES": 994.9874371066182}

0

at-the-end-of-june-16-will-joe-bide

920.4105174310245

At the end of June 16 will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight?

1718595055884

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715879368246

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/", "class": "b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18831501076376206}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.9767012001760342, "platformFee": 1.315245179336685, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718595055884

100

strutheo

1718595055884

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

15

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…fcc490854c24.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1715879368629}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715879368641}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-po...

["the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "politics-default", "donald-trump"]

0.25

0.5

1718578149628

1715951954854

0.01

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

0

0.5000000000000001

qbNx93R6UEh5KA5gTShd

{"NO": 61.048545333785206, "YES": 163.8040668344287}

0.27150471922520675

at-the-end-of-august-16-will-joe-bi

276.6329752516576

At the end of August 16 will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight?

1723867140000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715879457758

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/", "class": "b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.06849528077479344, "month": -0.17781939445298806}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.719775939451378, "platformFee": 2.3725263182485574, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1719744186376

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

6

1

0.13333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1715879458063}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715879458065}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1",...

["the-life-of-biden", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1719744182948

0

0.5000000000000001

1esz6T4hwDIFNfn4D3GS

{"NO": 23.089791985440428, "YES": 433.0918185103457}

0.05061535023375021

will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-f92a764b788f

516.1391208120647

Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of July 9th?

1720583940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715879501470

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover...

BINARY

{"day": -0.053205500987538616, "week": -0.3170333554206429, "month": -0.27938464976624977}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.791064442352712, "platformFee": 1.2791834140017107, "liquidityFee": 0}

140

100

strutheo

1720222956660

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

8

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7174a16291e6.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715879501780}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715879501841}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "c...

["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.25

0.5

1720222953005

1719110315164

0

0.5000000000000004

X3A7A5bOca3HZGviq6cw

{"NO": 48.62486335710203, "YES": 205.65610491405985}

0.19122494179450025

will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-ec380e16ec02

294.71943753969515

Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of August 12th?

1723521540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715879516121

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover...

BINARY

{"day": -0.042590977713054895, "week": -0.3087750582054998, "month": -0.3087750582054998}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.7354820328976555, "platformFee": 1.7694002120823407, "liquidityFee": 0}

25

100

strutheo

1720185943682

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

9

3

0.13333333333333333

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715879516587}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1715879516593}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "politics-default", "donald-trump", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1720185940587

0

aTZwVzwXsPgx1YK5eAhp

10x-profits-on-only-ranked-predicti

0

10x profits on only ranked (predictive) markets?

1716011940000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715879702235

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the new, 10x'd leaderboard, should we 10x the profits of only ranked, predictive markets? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Or, should we 10x the profits of all markets, including non-predictive markets,...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716011940654

ian

1715881299376

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

46

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…99367e663b16.jpg

1644802294323

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715879904214}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1715879909918}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users"]

0.25

1715881298230

["08fe3b5c6c39"]

0

0.5

jm0tYGNWqmU5pJhom7KT

{"NO": 11.164204517462863, "YES": 895.7198862093705}

0.012310508731623216

will-russia-invade-sumy-oblast-befo

865.1073939830474

Will russia invade Sumy oblast before 1st of July 2024

1719871140000

31RA8PIrjFcdx10iBobafplvrhh2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715879968499

Fline

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve Yes if the ISW map (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496d...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.026699007340262017, "month": -0.13853082470824005}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.8053737281317397, "platformFee": 1.3673460794504515, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Fline

1719870752598

0

https://firebasestorage.…e28-a6fd0161cddf

6

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…eceda70e7932.jpg

1672527074199

0

[{"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1715879968910}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1715879968919}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "created...

["ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "wars", "russia-ukraine", "russia"]

0.25

0.5

1719870749517

0

fnyNPUASTxbma7gC4Tem

biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-c63fcd2716c2

0

Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (538 Average Trump +1.%)

1715880759940

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1715880734526

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "National 538 average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywher...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715880759940

150

ManifoldPolitics

1715880759940

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "a60b2890caff", "prob": 0.16666666666666666, "text": "May", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15, "userId": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75, "textFts": "'may':1", "contractId": "fnyNPUASTxbma7gC4Tem", "resolverId": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "createdTime": 1715880734527, "probChanges": ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…eab017091933.jpg

1701801625125

True

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715880734958}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715880734972}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "g...

["us-politics", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden"]

0.25

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

True

0

BrTM8cgCLUTGZ0tGPbhC

biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-9286913ee167

46568.902968149305

Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (538)

1719548541884

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

bb6111675e6a

public

1715880772465

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "National 538 average", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywher...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 368.7441136588284, "platformFee": 15.836091025740755, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719548541884

2175

ManifoldPolitics

1719548541884

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

66

6

DISABLED

[{"id": "9a48b12e0e89", "prob": 0.00102804477127748, "text": "May", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.068118013063213, "userId": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 13670.275605248851, "textFts": "'may':1", "contractId": "BrTM8cgCLUTGZ0tGPbhC", "resolverId": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "createdTime"...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…555f15cec6a2.jpg

1701801625125

0

[{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715880772944}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715880772956}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "g...

["donald-trump", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "politics-default"]

0.25

1719547208499

1718907314959

{"bb6111675e6a": 100}

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

True

0

nbXPMHeul2jvUCzpG7vv

who-will-lead-superalignment-at-ope

3250.1365400456352

Who will lead Superalignment at OpenAI on July 1?

1719895370095

qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

3ac698f497e5

public

1715881057007

robm

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I hope this will have a simple resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some criteria for edge cases that could come up:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 28.04029802910809, "platformFee": 3.5868254026193367, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719895509426

1000

robm

1719895370095

0

https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf

34

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "343a3a3c119c", "prob": 0.0003559706267955509, "text": "Ilya Sutskever", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.8646832159294604, "userId": "qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2428.221176236415, "textFts": "'ilya':1 'sutskev':2", "contractId": "nbXPMHeul2jvUCzpG7vv", "resolverId": "qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQS...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e8af61058f7d.jpg

1673486173688

0

[{"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1715881057496}, {"name": "OpenAI Crisis", "slug": "openai-crisis", "groupId": "f81ebc23-0deb-4e38-b703-66ad59521727", "createdTime": 1715881057501}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46P...

["ai-alignment", "openai-crisis", "openai"]

0.25

1719875151992

1717920409250

{"3ac698f497e5": 100}

qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12

True

prob-desc

0

PR3wPMkEBAgEAQsuhzDm

remove-unranked-markets-from-profit

0

Remove unranked markets from profit calculation and leaderboards entirely

1716530340000

AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715881240011

Ian Philips

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716530340479

ian

1716319510101

0

https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0

38

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…d1b282f103da.jpg

1644802294323

0

[{"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1715881240558}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715881240568}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "grou...

["manifold-users", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

1716319508587

["24a33b34ed77"]

0

7FAL7hq7Uu1phN6m1TRC

which-of-the-following-is-worse-tha

0

Which of the following is worse than stealing $100 ten times from 10 different people

1716505140000

KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715881278684

Christopher Randles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should the emotional effect of being stolen from count significantly in how badly an act or acts should be considered? Does this scale with the size of the theft ?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Please vo...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716505140269

ChristopherRandles

1715953390315

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c

14

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6d020ee44e09.jpg

1683475207934

0

[{"name": "Ethics", "slug": "ethics", "groupId": "8423af51-efe9-4061-82de-f61c3ebeac6a", "createdTime": 1715881279031}, {"name": "Law and Crime", "slug": "law-and-crime", "groupId": "5bfaa7f5-f5b9-445f-9ed0-7a3b7792d1c6", "createdTime": 1715881279045}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBF...

["ethics", "law-and-crime", "law-order", "crime"]

0.25

1715953389068

["0f2d8ddf1bef"]

0

0.1066327515776094

wvsPH9PzRP9vMOX7Dv84

{"NO": 924.6880642810121, "YES": 1293.963931748585}

0.07859321856084019

will-an-amateur-radio-station-start

1080.6156789200543

Will an Amateur Radio Station transmit from Mars before the end of 2030?

1925009940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.178648718232035

False

basic

public

1715881866617

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.arrl.org/news/the-first-amateur-radio-station-on-the-moon-js1ymg-is-now-transmitting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.arrl.org/news/the-first-amateur-radio-station-on-the-moon-js1ymg-is-now-tra...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.596096313536006, "platformFee": 4.596096313536006, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1716344358276

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

12

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…321d94191fa6.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715881867003}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1715881867002}, {"name": "🔭 Space exploration", "slug": "space-exploration", "groupId": "7EN6VxtLzX459WLUsjQv", "c...

["science-default", "space", "space-exploration", "mars", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716344354744

1715956725790

0

0.7490863592574976

dcFntkfmyX8pEvLILa5U

{"NO": 6541.643710331382, "YES": 199.03547139936074}

1

will-this-market-get-more-than-100

21158.815399289626

Will this market get more than 100 Participants?

1716217446204

x3fh07wNUxfYXKrqaM7Cy4GPOJJ3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715882995772

Frank Grillo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First market!", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 61.52706522178786, "platformFee": 61.52706522178786, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716217446204

498

FrankGrillo

1716217446204

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyYqZXr9UOEi988wApqYizVnNSfpfOjtwGrD59IQclTR2Qug=s96-c

104

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…482880039b3e.jpg

1715791440895

0

[{"name": "🪞 Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1715882996006}, {"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1715882996013}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "...

["selfresolving", "metamarkets", "metaforecasting", "crypto-speculation", "nonpredictive"]

0.25

0.5

False

1716209668410

1716209766794

0.99

x3fh07wNUxfYXKrqaM7Cy4GPOJJ3

0

Mhhhe6SUancZGP2pDkxJ

who-will-win-fide-circuit-2024

337.89774804171344

Who will win FIDE Circuit 2024?

1735685940000

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715883791785

Weezing

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever finishes in the first place in FIDE Circuit 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Rankings (tab Leaderboard): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://wcc.fide.com/fi...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 6.068764874571628, "platformFee": 1.3428805431834365, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

275

Weezing

1719771891392

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276

5

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "ad5c32b6f2b5", "prob": 0.32419435062913254, "text": "Nodirbek Abdusattorov", "index": 0, "poolNo": 30.115807364283356, "userId": "FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 62.77849293996479, "textFts": "'abdusattorov':2 'nodirbek':1", "contractId": "Mhhhe6SUancZGP2pDkxJ", "createdTime": 17158...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b4240d0864a9.jpg

1700212225777

0

[{"name": "Fabiano Caruana", "slug": "fabiano-caruana", "groupId": "27721d12-cc84-4987-9b56-8cfc01247ad5", "createdTime": 1715883792197}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715883792230}, {"name": "Magnus Carlsen", "slug": "magnus-carlsen", "groupId": "1x...

["fabiano-caruana", "sports-default", "magnus-carlsen", "chess"]

0.25

1719771888196

1718453099740

True

0

0.5108022602418587

MkFgUAOlqMCNOM7n2yN3

{"NO": 211.9751582304791, "YES": 189.05960151483222}

1

will-i-complete-my-phd-talk-restruc

58.401506051331474

Will I complete my PhD talk restructure today?

1715915522453

lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715884655241

Alex

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm delivering a PhD advancement talk on May 28th. Today I'm restructuring my talk after my advisor told me it needs significant reframing towards content I have much less confidence in.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragra...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9757888918410281, "platformFee": 0.9757888918410281, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715915522453

200

Alex

1715928801413

0

https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…99123402617e.jpg

1644869599300

0

[{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1715884657978}, {"name": "Smol Beans", "slug": "smol-beans", "groupId": "XdKmDFqB6Hzet3fYAoW9", "createdTime": 1715884657976}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTi...

["personal-goals", "smol-beans", "personal", "-academia", "daily-markets"]

0.25

0.5

1715896170033

1715928799917

0.54

lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2

0

0.5

RevbBvVzk2KzzidKkYiN

{"NO": 91.8839692838322, "YES": 108.83291261732192}

0.4577789790949511

will-june-2024-be-one-of-the-top-17

47

Will June 2024 be one of the top 17 warmest Junes in Boston?

1719806340000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715884766344

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.06546444176695959, "month": 0.06546444176695959}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0123250086764022, "platformFee": 0.5477936165070565, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1719769096164

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

3

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…41e50903b384.jpg

1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

1719769093104

0

0.49999999999999994

5r1WptZi6mDgk0nYe1XX

{"NO": 97.12626764574019, "YES": 102.95875917392556}

0

will-edson-barboza-beat-lerone-murp

226.50602760402813

Will Edson Barboza beat Lerone Murphy?

1716098340000

iJKjrEkYTdNtZHyBQUThoFp1V432

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

NO

public

1715886882030

DRIUSHA

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.666340512309217, "platformFee": 3.666340512309217, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716145948917

100

DRIUSHA

1716098340000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Y9DvoNWPEbdLGoWpg1aSkBjAagXxnAjwE_hbAgQ=s96-c

10

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…493dae6b3841.jpg

1671057485722

0

[{"name": "UFC", "slug": "ufc", "groupId": "oQEmR7LpGHSDsM2Ua87u", "createdTime": 1715886882410}, {"name": "MMA", "slug": "mma", "groupId": "VAI9srd7zaNEvJ1iYLO1", "createdTime": 1715886882402}, {"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1715886882406}, {"name": "UFC Figh...

["ufc", "mma", "fighting", "ufc-fight-night"]

0.25

0.5

1716094298110

0.49

iJKjrEkYTdNtZHyBQUThoFp1V432

0

0.4999999999999999

05KsFrwXLRHYuI5xFWSE

{"NO": 180.74205570647638, "YES": 55.3274663216176}

1

will-khaos-williams-beat-carlston-h

92.03811466486817

Will Khaos Williams beat Carlston Harris?

1716098340000

iJKjrEkYTdNtZHyBQUThoFp1V432

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715887091195

DRIUSHA

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1268545807338135, "platformFee": 1.1268545807338135, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716145930973

100

DRIUSHA

1716098340000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Y9DvoNWPEbdLGoWpg1aSkBjAagXxnAjwE_hbAgQ=s96-c

5

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…32ac972cc3d5.jpg

1671057485722

0

[{"name": "Fighting", "slug": "fighting", "groupId": "RCGUqqLvrrs1ievZIxDE", "createdTime": 1715887091508}, {"name": "UFC", "slug": "ufc", "groupId": "oQEmR7LpGHSDsM2Ua87u", "createdTime": 1715887091519}, {"name": "MMA", "slug": "mma", "groupId": "VAI9srd7zaNEvJ1iYLO1", "createdTime": 1715887091504}, {"name": "UFC Figh...

["fighting", "ufc", "mma", "ufc-fight-night"]

0.25

0.5

1716028451141

0.77

iJKjrEkYTdNtZHyBQUThoFp1V432

0

0.5000000000000001

Osy7izrzrIFQmadAcUV7

{"NO": 76.6356044734813, "YES": 130.48765086025193}

0.3700000000000001

has-dreams-career-peaked-as-predict

168.9403662284118

Has Dream's career peaked like SunnyV2 is predicting? (Same or less Youtube Subs a year from now?)

1779076740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715888333450

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if 1 year from today his subscriber count on youtube is the same or less than today: 31,800,000", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://socialb...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.1400441469455019}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.164325909685727, "platformFee": 1.0032680501295799, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1717692285829

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…dba15cf4291f.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Minecraft", "slug": "minecraft", "groupId": "9IAVIiHYWuwH9S47UErq", "createdTime": 1715888333815}, {"name": "Twitch", "slug": "twitch", "groupId": "VTvoakLdTRfbosPA4BGZ", "createdTime": 1715888333817}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj", "createdTime": 1715888333830}, {"...

["minecraft", "twitch", "youtube", "dream-minecraft-youtuber", "internet"]

0.25

0.5

1717692282439

1715892537985

0

0.4999999999999996

FUGSZ0Zoosnf2pP3BZVq

{"NO": 360.4279233708095, "YES": 27.744798201198208}

1

will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-cc8791ad748c

347.75476461964087

Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on May 17 than it closed on May 16?

1715976130653

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715890327888

Jim Fix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.4688539451126226, "platformFee": 2.4688539451126226, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715976130653

100

JimFix

1715976130653

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f1c447e201f2.jpg

1696775041650

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1715890328211}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1715890328216}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1...

["economics-default", "finance", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1715976052229

0.93

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

0

0.6973034324197828

IX4UakCPJfti1Sa0DSat

{"NO": 907.2937617539952, "YES": 1029.4407809347852}

0.67

will-joe-biden-be-alive-to-see-2030

348.8839987113458

Will Joe Biden be alive to see 2030?

1893542340000

Aj7xLogsm9fHz39lc22so1xLHB32

cpmm-1

0

9.561823321781091

False

basic

public

1715890391247

James York

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved YES if Biden is alive on 1/1/2030", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved NO if Biden passes away before 12/31/2029", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.885367534545148, "platformFee": 4.564717727022662, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JamesYork

1716667554561

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKt8VjNXLoM-1tU3g_FbhgsKt15RFp3CkHIYGnuLsMfdFJZ=s96-c

11

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…95049b51a623.jpg

1715788916394

0

[{"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1715890391489}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1715890391499}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDq...

["death-markets", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1716667551212

0

teXTAdAjhltVnXPT0Om3

what-percentage-of-manifold-poll-re

2822.683237229185

What percentage of Manifold poll respondents will agree that weak AGI has been achieved at the end of June 2024?

1719115140000

J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

307b508f98b1

public

1715893025221

Steve Sokolowski

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On June 23, 2024, a poll will be posted that asks Manifold users whether weak AGI has been achieved as of June 23. The poll will remain open until June 30. The answers will be exactly the same as the following poll, but ", "type": "text"}, {"text...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 118.60559182564698, "platformFee": 71.24156208010302, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719827869556

1050

SteveSokolowski

1719828094188

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c

17

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "62e2e6d0b611", "prob": 0.022175956117948585, "text": "0-2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.23240223863622, "userId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 495.28024501290827, "textFts": "'-2':2 '0':1", "contractId": "teXTAdAjhltVnXPT0Om3", "resolverId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "created...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e6203b3fe900.jpg

1692195009054

0

[{"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1715893025666}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715893025673}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": ...

["ai-alignment", "openai", "ai-safety", "ai", "technology-default"]

0.25

1719056583172

1719828092442

{"307b508f98b1": 100}

J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2

True

0

nupqoPK3sLAyqQCS7suw

if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-1e0b76ff12aa

0

If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Charles Manson?

1715981348578

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1715893782178

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "c9QbK9KoFUFE8JR7a1HX", "label": "/strutheo/who-would-have-to-be-running-for-ma"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1715981401102

strutheo

1715981352104

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

12

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…ff58d253c394.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715893782546}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715893782552}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 17158...

["donald-trump", "us-politics", "polls", "future-us-presidents", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

1715916155138

["51d4a0089e1f"]

0

0.49999999999999994

LmlsMxDHFjkxUPLeThGO

{"NO": 127.44766882980247, "YES": 78.4635771828381}

0.6189446729975042

will-beyond-meat-bynd-be-acquired-b

105

Will Beyond Meat (BYND) be acquired by the end of 2025?

1767243540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715894193728

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6812007350613858, "platformFee": 1.6812007350613858, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1716344331867

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…928fe2c4a805.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1715894194575}, {"name": "Mergers and Acqusitions", "slug": "mergers-and-acqusitions", "groupId": "PFIReLFjJNpAPu7tjhPT", "createdTime": 1715894194576}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5l...

["startups", "mergers-and-acqusitions", "biotech", "business", "vegan"]

0.25

0.5

1716344328424

0

0.24695444411010303

bSYKcjKYtekDeCkxRfLA

{"NO": 904.2631834007605, "YES": 1277.640874933706}

0.18837985762214823

will-beyond-meat-bynd-file-for-bank

2021.0464614470263

Will Beyond Meat (BYND) file for bankruptcy by the end of 2025?

1767243540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.642237564850207

False

basic

public

1715894213854

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.008125970799802179}

0

{"creatorFee": 19.550925256536733, "platformFee": 18.479110812962304, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

strutheo

1718407556547

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

27

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6f2a530cfd86.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1715894215224}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1715894215222}, {"name": "Vegan", "slug": "vegan", "groupId": "Xrhp6fk47Bx8oRUyB0vJ", "createdTime": ...

["business", "startups", "vegan", "biotech", "mergers-and-acqusitions"]

0.25

0.5

1718407553494

1715900114330

0

0.9241302583890254

twRARvMaqMrl1wO1mHEv

{"NO": 4649.578046462058, "YES": 833.0807277268618}

1

will-russai-ukraine-and-israel-all

4852.470062136944

Will Russia, Ukraine and Israel all be mentioned by name in the upcoming presidential debate.

1719538520615

IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

YES

public

1715895080024

Andrew

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if all three countries are mentioned by name in the upcoming debate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves NO if even one country on the list is not ment...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07087522039434191}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.091083017459532, "platformFee": 7.27051986718395, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719538520615

1000

AndrewCrosse

1719538520615

0

https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261

36

4

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…43e8b369eddd.jpg

1709841963600

0

[{"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1715895080945}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715895080944}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime":...

["debate", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "presidential-debate"]

0.25

0.5

1719538512575

1719538498191

0.99

IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92

0

0.5

RcJNciIKKGt2GqcOBn3r

{"NO": 74.00301653950578, "YES": 135.1296267046303}

0.3538568412446093

will-donald-trump-be-alive-to-see-2

85

Will Donald Trump be alive to see 2030?

1893542340000

Aj7xLogsm9fHz39lc22so1xLHB32

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715897027987

James York

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved YES if Trump is alive on 1/1/2030", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved NO if Trump passes away before 12/31/2029", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.1354139537696604, "platformFee": 0.5739273709107319, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

JamesYork

1716826369041

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKt8VjNXLoM-1tU3g_FbhgsKt15RFp3CkHIYGnuLsMfdFJZ=s96-c

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…47d51d1950fc.jpg

1715788916394

0

[{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715897028960}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1715897028958}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTi...

["donald-trump", "longevity", "death-markets"]

0.25

0.5

1716826365388

0

0.5000000000000001

03dq4fO281Go8AN01Hzd

{"NO": 160.3567451474546, "YES": 62.360956446232365}

0.72

will-the-price-of-gold-increase-by

146.15204773344132

Will the price of gold increase by 10% within the next six months?

1731801540000

Aj7xLogsm9fHz39lc22so1xLHB32

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715898036660

James York

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The price of gold in USD/oz is currently $2,378.12", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve as YES if the price of gold on November 16, 2024 is $2615.93 or greater.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.05999999999999983}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.667173635076356, "platformFee": 1.2313821965419864, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

JamesYork

1718425052749

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKt8VjNXLoM-1tU3g_FbhgsKt15RFp3CkHIYGnuLsMfdFJZ=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f59c6fef96be.jpg

1715788916394

0

[{"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 1715898037259}, {"name": "Gold", "slug": "gold", "groupId": "1ed3b782-e5ee-4c67-b30a-f14ba46d85ac", "createdTime": 1715898037266}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "c...

["permanent-markets", "gold", "finance", "commodities", "economics-default"]

0.25

0.5

1718425049664

0

ecyMMDNAuJw50X3ffOO3

authoritarian-nomic-game

92.35066121003466

Authoritarian Nomic game

1717970340000

9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1715898551920

Kongo Landwalker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Usually Nomic starts as a democratic mechanism, but here we start with authoritarian regime, and your goal is to break it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am lazy dictator, I do not write la...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.418422382402038, "platformFee": 0.22333506516237575, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717970841603

625

KongoLandwalker

1717970340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "68ceb3b2d3af", "prob": 0.07, "text": "M: This game has 5+ answers before the closure.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.739983515164724, "userId": "9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 92.73019712789697, "textFts": "'5':5 'answer':6 'closur':9 'game':3 'm':1", "contractId": "ecyMMDNAuJw50X3ffOO3...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…907015495d24.jpg

1681038287526

0

[{"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "groupId": "P67UKUCwcJP2SJ36nxFB", "createdTime": 1715898552292}, {"name": "Manifold plays games", "slug": "manifold-plays-games", "groupId": "78e52912-aecd-4c18-84a2-8010db3ac3fc", "createdTime": 1715898552317}]

["nomic", "manifold-plays-games"]

0.25

1717961632271

1716563658986

0.51

9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2

False

0

0.4999999999999989

ifykt8GPkTrXGAaVkWyU

{"NO": 489.89794855660125, "YES": 20.4124145231946}

1

will-arsenal-beat-everton

1084.050983171039

Will arsenal beat Everton?

1716138204910

SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1715898704517

Fidel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The match is taking place this Sunday at 16:00 UK time.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.100986507406186, "platformFee": 4.100986507406186, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716138204910

100

Fidell

1716138204910

0

https://firebasestorage.…991-2254da353060

8

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f543f9115558.jpg

1715799485120

0

[{"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1715898704921}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1715898704928}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "cr...

["premiere-league", "sports-default", "football", "soccer"]

0.25

0.5

1716137730323

0.96

SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3

0

0.5000000000000001

T2vjTXcH711XqJhGJaaB

{"NO": 36.539642975668826, "YES": 273.6753614877637}

0.11778812259216834

will-we-see-ads-in-openai-served-by

225.5571459757305

Will we see Ads in an OpenAI product served by Reddit before the end of 2024?

1735707540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715898764003

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://openai.com/index/openai-and-reddit-partnership/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openai.com/index/openai-and-reddit-partnership/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.951480107551604, "platformFee": 1.951480107551604, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1716344306392

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5ca64ef3406d.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715898764624}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715898764616}, {"name": "Reddit", "slug": "reddit", "groupId": "DGXfEkwxk3kRk6Tz6tzV", "createdTime": 1715898792846}, {"name": "💼...

["openai", "ai", "reddit", "business"]

0.25

0.5

1716344302970

1715898812243

0

0.5000000000000009

0vniWBSYaQruZgD3urmZ

{"NO": 568.6240703076974, "YES": 17.58631145281767}

1

will-manchester-city-beat-west-ham

2600.9373658474333

Will Manchester city beat West ham

1716138189585

SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

YES

public

1715898771780

Fidel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The match is taking place this Sunday at 16:00 UK time.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 17.98371689421383, "platformFee": 17.98371689421383, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716138189585

1000

Fidell

1716138189585

0

https://firebasestorage.…991-2254da353060

29

0

0.13333333333333333

1715799485120

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715898772019}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1715898772027}, {"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime"...

["football", "premiere-league", "soccer", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1716137931566

0.97

SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3

0

0.14261699007877346

jdL9zAcMqcRbQ9eG0feK

{"NO": 705.4845721906217, "YES": 6445.0921655971615}

0.017882095522045668

will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-d3f8fdf3f6e4

12995.872796117306

Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 6th?

1720324740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.391236162922123

False

basic

public

1715898856380

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Going by end of day Israel time", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "both sides must agree", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.00674962321416343, "week": -0.05339537780278335, "month": -0.1549339033831885}

0

{"creatorFee": 77.83352926720781, "platformFee": 13.047224734940501, "liquidityFee": 0}

5815.1020739507285

1000

strutheo

1720243795445

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

36

8

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a7ae8af07743.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1715898856675}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1715898856694}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabis...

["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "geopolitics", "wars"]

0.25

0.5

1720243792373

1720240070927

0

0.49999999999999994

WuNZfl8X3WHpPNxvYkyu

{"NO": 81.6496580927726, "YES": 122.47448713915898}

0.3999999999999998

will-the-us-population-peak-before

121.51451452001828

Will the US population peak before the global population?

2536977540000

QnUnuvNGB1YMKkIlZmYG6fl9eNj1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715899527268

Joshua Bartlett

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.11510108771381455}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.015876069362588, "platformFee": 0.7848355612316602, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

JoshuaBartlett

1718724555243

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLrHZK1BMnH4TIzVLpAvx9iyt35hQENFarO6Vwk0Zyj=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…146fa0fe5298.jpg

1695348085515

0

0.25

0.5

1718724555243

0

0.14

6E2BabNOl7cHgu70gU3B

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.14

will-simple-probes-can-catch-sleepe

0

Will "Simple probes can catch sleeper agents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715901379152

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LessWrong

1715901379471

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…fce631765e8f.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715901379471}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

0

0.14

52rpqtpQLDn1W0ZIdytU

{"NO": 109.4582117253896, "YES": 57.39882493179003}

0.23689638866107932

will-revealing-intentionality-in-la

10

Will "Revealing Intentionality In Language Models T..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1715901611635

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.27089413730519935, "platformFee": 0.27089413730519935, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

LessWrong

1715909123689

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…bcfa1b126398.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715901612760}]

["lesswrong-annual-review"]

0.25

0.14

1715909120256

0

oJj1xVBuIqlRJQ40iPku

which-nba-team-will-win-game-1-of-t

27242.274334086575

Which NBA team will win Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers?

1716346855480

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

141e814e0f1b

public

1715902513101

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 59.262827198937224, "platformFee": 59.262827198937224, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716346855480

100

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

28

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "141e814e0f1b", "prob": 0.9998691376778871, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4370.53170283316, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.5720127824215524, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "oJj1xVBuIqlRJQ40iPku", "resolverId": "Bg...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…485a371be192.jpg

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1715902513569}, {"name": "NBA", "slug": "nba", "groupId": "i0v3cXwuxmO9fpcInVYb", "createdTime": 1715902513571}, {"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4...

["20232024-nba-season", "nba", "nba-playoffs", "basketball", "sports-default"]

0.25

1716346854540

1716347708609

{"141e814e0f1b": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

0

flYJqB0tMVyvZfHzQZje

which-nba-team-will-win-game-2-of-t

4213.253204094762

Which NBA team will win Game 2 between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers?

1716528732627

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

cff4c08b8a52

public

1715902520388

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 21.542513361913752, "platformFee": 1.6749903534308108, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716528732627

100

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

23

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "cff4c08b8a52", "prob": 0.9974939229190686, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 997.5344917568492, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.5061790049955874, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "flYJqB0tMVyvZfHzQZje", "resolverId": "B...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…901c4934d977.jpg

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715902520780}, {"name": "2023-2024 NBA Season", "slug": "20232024-nba-season", "groupId": "5c4260e1-b559-4202-b3be-d1dffecbdecd", "createdTime": 1715902520788}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId":...

["basketball", "20232024-nba-season", "sports-default", "nba", "nba-playoffs"]

0.25

1716518255672

1716517595712

{"cff4c08b8a52": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

0

CwSZChWbTUOXJvjuEgc6

which-nba-team-will-win-game-3-of-t

9864.808248916566

Which NBA team will win Game 3 between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers?

1716693022496

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

20a048b2c175

public

1715902527566

Semiotic Rivalry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 33.32174723604236, "platformFee": 0.29252504965307624, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716693022496

100

SemioticRivalry

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf

22

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "20a048b2c175", "prob": 0.9995208647848991, "text": "Boston Celtics", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2283.6886360059925, "userId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1.094720164817545, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "CwSZChWbTUOXJvjuEgc6", "resolverId": "B...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7d6cad334547.jpg

1669063432873

0

[{"name": "NBA Playoffs", "slug": "nba-playoffs", "groupId": "8f8bc28b-e3cc-4cb4-885f-6486002430f1", "createdTime": 1715902527944}, {"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1715902527946}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaF...

["nba-playoffs", "basketball", "sports-default", "nba", "20232024-nba-season"]

0.25

1716692847143

{"20a048b2c175": 100}

BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3

True

0