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0.5000000000000003 | Y8h8Nw79vFYwBAFeJI4j | {"NO": 1811.6270565673638, "YES": 551.9899895372444} | 0.766463865012753 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-a7a307ae2768 | 12604.988395208038 | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of August? | 1723143540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.62600478126453 | False | basic | public | 1715919496172 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywh... | BINARY | {"day": -0.0054757987022070465, "week": 0.15589891288905744, "month": 0.15589891288905744} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 99.28063668665084, "platformFee": 82.0839135034328, "liquidityFee": 0} | 126.16178679294387 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720189803198 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715919496733}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1715919496743}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-e... | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720189800112 | 1716673373846 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 6tH4hCf3kWtXWA64lMnu | {"NO": 233.5721074675876, "YES": 4281.333121673211} | 0 | will-rfk-qualify-for-the-6272024-pr | 14204.97919887756 | Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 6/27/2024 presidential debate on CNN? | 1718866740000 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.904154071718185 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715920868036 | GeorgeBishop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to the criteria set by CNN on 5/15/2024 in this post:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2024/05/15/cnn-to-host-2024-election-presidential-debate-betw... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.32977415927981135} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 153.32175136883524, "platformFee": 66.32134352490044, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718889328972 | 1000 | BishopG | 1718866740000 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBishopG%2F1D_cdCVOPt.48?alt=media&token=c56ab372-9448-4062-bdec-8efc816c754e | 67 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694062092321 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1715920868510}, {"name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "slug": "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "groupId": "lzuhs9uc93209ES3QX5S", "createdTime": 1715920868532}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "robert-f-kennedy-jr", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718865709412 | 1718750355453 | 0.05 | TvUGbX2Jd9gNk9HKcoUDa7KziJs2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | 5E6VfgaVAJjaabyQQTPS | {"NO": 210.61631736149798, "YES": 4747.970207282732} | 0.04247507153797406 | will-any-manifold-users-bet-mana-ga | 24943.464626770074 | Will any Manifold users bet mana gained from a death market, they caused to resolve, on a prize point market? | 1735731660000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.423261564326832 | False | basic | public | 1715921314091 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if someone causes a death market to resolve and then uses that mana to bet on a prize point market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve No if all death markets on Manifold are... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.010708010064546046, "month": -0.010708010064546046} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 104.43851009516113, "platformFee": 99.35276950682386, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1719734164582 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715921314436}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1715921314441}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "death-markets", "manifold-drama", "manifold-users", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719734161403 | 1716041554469 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
s47HDUjzquYEXEhHLbAA | should-death-markets-award-marbles | 0 | Should Death Markets award "Marbles" instead of "Mana"? | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715921579664 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Marbles are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Joshua's", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:und... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KeenenW | 1715921692960 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715921581177}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "uqVbahk6EJpQP9aKuZiX", "createdTime": 1715921581179}, {"name": "Manifold Drama", "slug": "manifold-drama", "groupId": "srdbxZea0H4L... | ["technology-default", "manifold-users", "manifold-drama", "manifold-6748e065087e", "death-markets"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | xkBdqF5n3suQu97LDNvq | {"NO": 207.87766391339898, "YES": 4810.521636497714} | 0 | will-lav-come-on-jstlks-stream-by-t | 6483.293801814162 | Will Lav come on Jstlk's stream by the end of May 2024? | 1717225140000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.895543652209895 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715921603639 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mr.Girl just came on jstlk's stream to argue about the valorant girl. Lav is likely to follow.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0414231015647498} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 78.59785624811043, "platformFee": 26.16619975513484, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717234605365 | 1000 | PunishedFurry | 1717225140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715921605777}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1715921605774}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej"... | ["culture-default", "destinygg", "technology-default", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717224739950 | 1717224324612 | 0.04 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
P91IVaklqQa7tmSZtEv4 | which-countries-will-be-able-to-wit | 6029.630159514902 | Which countries will be able to withdraw prize points as cash before the end of 2025? | 1767221940000 | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.865578568837083 | False | plus | public | 1715922045868 | Simon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 65.28858044127999, "platformFee": 43.24740136254336, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 11000 | Simon74fe | 1719917961573 | 0 | 11 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f5ff6b89e052", "prob": 0.8101775561835757, "text": "United States", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1326.2418219958502, "userId": "85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 310.7349269568709, "textFts": "'state':2 'unit':1", "contractId": "P91IVaklqQa7tmSZtEv4", "createdTime": 1715922045869, "probChang... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645874228924 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719917958497 | 1718082636838 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | NCKfrEGePme7MPrZa3jK | {"NO": 743.5463187165835, "YES": 1344.9061273359227} | 0.3560274116473177 | will-a-fast-takeoff-scenario-occur | 3750.729803 | Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)? | 2524690740000 | lCq4BTG0BZYYz9SL5tGVOOz3Bx52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.382072506264372 | False | basic | public | 1715923556132 | Peter 1169 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Even though the definition of AGI is controversial, the definition of ASI is even more so. For the purposes of this market, the definition of ASI will be one of the following three, with preference for the first listed:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.04652174901556838} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 61.28325725960312, "platformFee": 55.05103555259486, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Peter1169 | 1718892432056 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6Qvm2Aa9pfA8_rzlDW13AQD1I4falviuj6hu28IrUbLU=s96-c | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707660435691 | 0 | [{"name": "ASI", "slug": "asi", "groupId": "739b81d5-5bf6-4b54-a364-f6e0f67afbd3", "createdTime": 1715923559378}, {"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "createdTime": 1715923559382}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 17159235593... | ["asi", "agi", "ai", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718892428964 | 1718816364471 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | eYA8aibepu17wVEYJXcp | {"NO": 991.8176413402444, "YES": 1008.2498619894468} | 0.49589208348672087 | will-llama-3multimodal-be-natively | 200 | Will Llama 3-multimodal be natively mixed-multimodal? (VQ-VAE+next token prediction) | 1735707540000 | 8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570343818962785 | False | basic | public | 1715925623979 | Sss | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vision Language Models currently has two common paradigms", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first one is LLaVA, where one assembles a CLIP-like vision block with a LLM through projection. ",... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.374729147392765, "platformFee": 3.374729147392765, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Sss19971997 | 1715930264647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696879998283 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715925624789}, {"name": "LLama 3", "slug": "llama-3", "groupId": "a4563e75-0768-4783-ac78-c45e4a46e287", "createdTime": 1715925624788}, {"name": "Meta (Facebook)", "slug": "meta-facebook", "groupId": "pOFiVhTtERxjJVbhKNiC", "createdTime... | ["ai", "llama-3", "meta-facebook"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715930261374 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 3qEmA2WThbef2GBUgubz | {"NO": 666.7407860370178, "YES": 1499.8332499558219} | 0.3077396733093784 | will-a-manifold-user-be-convicted-o | 820 | Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030? | 1893560340000 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.596027786913503 | False | basic | public | 1715926117924 | Haws | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.011820917167913, "platformFee": 12.011820917167913, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Haws | 1716409217157 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677434458766 | 0 | [{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1715926118215}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1715926118221}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9... | ["crime", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716391047959 | 1716409215482 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | rZQ5MueCWw6VrLwYSbAW | {"NO": 1575.7493459552331, "YES": 634.6186990760219} | 0.7128900318195435 | will-manchester-united-buy-a-player | 1130.9838839058123 | Will Manchester United buy a player from a current Premier League team this summer transfer window? | 1725317940000 | 9eZbGWa4ftXTWX0DtRhaLvkrlmq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.602729034412373 | False | basic | public | 1715927613622 | Andy W 🧶 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Manchester United buy someone from a club in the 2023/24 Premier League season, then the answer will be Yes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02740825287105486, "month": -0.02740825287105486} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.13373761904555, "platformFee": 8.282091026530047, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AndyW | 1719962632049 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704358661416 | 0 | [{"name": "Manchester United", "slug": "manchester-united", "groupId": "Hg6evMXBaCj825BnjpTJ", "createdTime": 1715927614020}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1715927614019}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCo... | ["manchester-united", "football", "premiere-league", "uk", "soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719962628618 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 4fJOJKtgd2PyusFPrLtw | {"NO": 878.599715105494, "YES": 1138.1747373773385} | 0.4356459960229357 | will-a-soldier-from-a-nato-country | 2011.959457368336 | Will a soldier from a NATO country be confirmed killed in action inside Ukraine during 2024? | 1735649940000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.46742777243885 | False | basic | public | 1715927995890 | Keepcalmandchill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be serving in a NATO military at time of death, which must be while on duty. Pre-2014 borders. Includes airstrikes. Must be reported in 3 out of following: BBC, NYT, CNN, Reuters, AP.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.07540651367989909} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.87015480550832, "platformFee": 20.198703532187842, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Keepcalmandchill | 1718153644087 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645055532470 | 0 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1715927996251}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1715927996266}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "created... | ["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718153640888 | 1716158731986 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 6kXuzN63Cpc4UOeauPEg | {"NO": 1386.013293678413, "YES": 721.4938013661092} | 0.6576553393046265 | will-the-manifold-app-on-android-se | 710 | Will the Manifold app on Android send push notifications on my phone during 2024? | 1735649940000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.58695404298102 | False | basic | public | 1715928258806 | Keepcalmandchill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It seems any notifications alerted inside the app are not sending any push notifications for me at the moment. Using Pixel 7 Pro.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.255532055597728, "platformFee": 10.255532055597728, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Keepcalmandchill | 1715985826257 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645055532470 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1715928259496}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715928259485}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug":... | ["manifold-user-retention", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715985822786 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Eu6QtcCUzBBlwEc2JGph | who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-dc044d3b0d49 | 1003 | Who will be the next prime minister of Czech Republic | 1764543540000 | P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715932256862 | Martin Modrák | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to the next person (including Petr Fiala, the current PM) that:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a) is appointed as prime minister by the president and", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "co... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.878354422424351, "platformFee": 8.243424460859362, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MartinModrak | 1718012783989 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f85db2ebadc6", "prob": 0.6865065985530419, "text": "Andrej Babiš", "index": 0, "poolNo": 427.18651310028173, "userId": "P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 195.07482277131493, "textFts": "'andrej':1 'babiš':2", "contractId": "Eu6QtcCUzBBlwEc2JGph", "createdTime": 1715932256862, "probCha... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672234503136 | 0 | [{"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "groupId": "fiFxXettsJwAQ9hBBErv", "createdTime": 1715932257446}, {"name": "Czech Republic", "slug": "czech-republic", "groupId": "c761c45a-f9a9-456f-bb07-2ed7fe87c4b7", "createdTime": 1715932257453}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "... | ["central-europe", "czech-republic", "politics-default", "czechia"] | 0.25 | 1718012780637 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | CbsmTPR1WgvYZdxsV5sm | {"NO": 340.2820605015747, "YES": 2938.7385233473733} | 0.10377551826836917 | will-prize-points-be-removed-in-202 | 2737.0629531418226 | Will Prize Points be removed in 2024? | 1735707540000 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.759699651126937 | False | basic | public | 1715934963630 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fm_GLfjYid1.png?alt=media&token=3e436b2f-96ff-4d49-bcda-aa79d4978a62", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold seems ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0051006172250857434} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.897808384377214, "platformFee": 19.9577751945907, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1719074994024 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715934963929}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715934963925}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719074990953 | 1715968517434 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | RaNZofoLLmMuwuEHfrUF | {"NO": 538.5959755195233, "YES": 1856.679302208698} | 0.22485765228218374 | are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint-c53e7d7c42ad | 2240 | Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025? | 1767225540000 | MkuJhiBwM5aiuAiTMXDz0HUxaUG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63077974400263 | False | basic | public | 1715935827692 | Maxime Riché | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-an... | BINARY | {"day": -0.07645155257904779, "week": -0.061126000425088534, "month": -0.061126000425088534} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.535464354722556, "platformFee": 26.050786326137146, "liquidityFee": 0} | 340 | 1000 | MaximeRiche | 1720201039093 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6TEuSs1PIS03f7am7s4qPVHI7FNXY19oU-fXxynyg=s96-c | 34 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676641665794 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715935827983}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715935827986}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1715935827997}, {"name... | ["openai", "ai", "ai-safety", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720201036002 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Gw9K7U3fvRxMza0BxJ7v | {"NO": 491.0345101308113, "YES": 2036.5167404091403} | 0.1942728203932219 | are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint-c3c0790ef413 | 1515.8282056185296 | Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026? | 1798761540000 | MkuJhiBwM5aiuAiTMXDz0HUxaUG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.650609137147768 | False | basic | public | 1715935877547 | Maxime Riché | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU, but about the year 2026.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Quote: \"\"\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBre... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.682190486944002, "platformFee": 12.419529415500348, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MaximeRiche | 1717163279377 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6TEuSs1PIS03f7am7s4qPVHI7FNXY19oU-fXxynyg=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1676641665794 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715935877860}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1715935877863}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime... | ["openai", "ai-safety", "technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717163276265 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | xqwy0IYsGYXN4M1xawap | {"NO": 1291.105862582106, "YES": 774.5298267022673} | 0.6250404508790229 | will-china-lower-its-one-year-lpr-b | 300 | Will China lower it’s one year LPR by the end of 2024? | 1735660740000 | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580496984601158 | False | basic | public | 1715937636249 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.447068708946916, "platformFee": 4.447068708946916, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Krypton | 1715964566106 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | [{"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1715937636718}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1715937636720}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "crea... | ["interest-rates", "china", "economics-default", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715964562837 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | ekxzLuAa4kpTikG7Vwi0 | {"NO": 190.3816748281319, "YES": 5252.60638085443} | 0 | will-apple-release-next-generation | 5887.037379582155 | Will Apple release next generation headphone(e.x AirPod max 2) in WWDC 2024? | 1718083563845 | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.889314724096714 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715937757686 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.33636714600592105} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.80730769780223, "platformFee": 7.565064651350865, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718083563845 | 1000 | Krypton | 1718083563845 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | [{"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1715937758587}, {"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927", "createdTime": 1715937758593}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih"... | ["iphone", "-wwdc-2024", "apple"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718083555136 | 1717324716604 | 0.03 | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LWCJ5Pcz1kQ2CWlyxQ8K | should-i-pursuit-phd | 0 | Should I pursuit PHD? | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715938232831 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Krypton | 1715948491688 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | 0.25 | 1715948489380 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | u3qdR0LW3ajKTjNsSxsg | {"NO": 216.02678590213185, "YES": 4629.055585972733} | 0 | will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-baa969d6244c | 12061.405579113565 | Will Apple announce a partnership with Baidu during WWDC 2024? | 1718083485703 | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.898338323197677 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715938466810 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.2493759869593111} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 195.15735258505958, "platformFee": 32.84173117228379, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718083485703 | 1000 | Krypton | 1718083485703 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | [{"name": "iPhone", "slug": "iphone", "groupId": "d65113e9-fafc-47b4-882f-87219e778441", "createdTime": 1715938467244}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1715938467247}, {"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888927"... | ["iphone", "apple", "-wwdc-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718083436125 | 0.04 | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Zv0fyZFquJTKwvXi9Gg2 | which-economic-do-you-prefer | 0 | Which economic do you prefer? | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715938649372 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Krypton | 1715938649372 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SbAYpZlDJgVoLdt1KB0v | is-humanoid-robots-a-bubble | 0 | Is humanoid robots a bubble? | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715938756003 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Krypton | 1715938756302 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | [{"name": "Robotics", "slug": "robotics", "groupId": "w6Q4c8YIK0W5GMslvGbd", "createdTime": 1715938756300}, {"name": "Humanoid robotics", "slug": "humanoid-robotics", "groupId": "c0d8e463-ef4a-4a29-90b2-4f7bcf5034bb", "createdTime": 1715938756302}] | ["robotics", "humanoid-robotics"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 24v3F29MjKgjNO1SEbn4 | {"NO": 1017.9181066201758, "YES": 982.3973004275664} | 0.5088788013298948 | will-buysell-bitcoin-be-available-i | 210 | Will buy/sell Bitcoin be available in any China major bank in 2024? | 1735660740000 | YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570382303182496 | False | basic | public | 1715939506207 | Krypton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.282669696041308, "platformFee": 1.7985439680152593, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Krypton | 1716856823865 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693393975510 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716856820292 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | IJLhxLxYJrPfbw2GV8eG | {"NO": 5475.369029432858, "YES": 182.63609167245158} | 1 | will-the-costs-for-creating-a-yesno | 11657.690854182569 | Will the costs for creating a yes/no questions/markets of 1000 be reduced in 2024? | 1717507884070 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.886446149666114 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715941159191 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the creation cost of yes/no questions is reduced below 1000 in 2024 the market will be resolved to yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.185655802827288} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 143.176040947375, "platformFee": 35.705540657810865, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717507888464 | 1000 | Base | 1717539671302 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1715941159916}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1715941170031}, {"name": "Prices", "slug": "prices", "groupId": "ec8ff17e-7276-4586-83a8-7... | ["metaforecasting", "manifold-6748e065087e", "prices", "manifold-users", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717507816615 | 1717539669794 | 0.97 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | 8bS3jgjhrjMEz21lUQX4 | {"NO": 2179.452081026534, "YES": 458.83091842468684} | 0.8260873005207836 | will-ai-pass-video-turing-test-by-2 | 3350.477171865931 | Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030? | 1893448740000 | XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.654126704085112 | False | basic | public | 1715941218354 | Dark Speculator | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will we have AI that behaves like a human in a video meeting settings?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if a credible organisation made a match in which a human try to distinguish between another huma... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.029034691022711945} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.434818365902345, "platformFee": 29.65287454497722, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | 0482 | 1718964775778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteS8SwkT3ywrOgne_djZRPozlXiVaKvKDJhqwdJd3Ox=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691595630760 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715941218842}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1715941218841}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "creat... | ["ai", "ai-impacts", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718964772728 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jlJyVNGv92PNbxCKY6EZ | apio | 0 | Apio | 1716152340000 | hTGsKbfNmdQOpSFzT4TP9WONRHj2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715943789566 | Omri Jerbi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716152340309 | OmriJerbi | 1715943789566 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLWS_ZqKozBOeJYWS0fdChrOwLL0ZIg4dQju5YBFlFi1jc6NsCk=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715535516436 | 0 | 0.25 | ["8c910750648b"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AfpS14F6JOA9pE1uY1IR | what-will-be-in-the-apioisrael | 7002.829663730912 | What will be in the APIO(Israel) | 1716107937921 | DQ2RrGtZJee7Ddv6dTLcVIRy9OZ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1715944835857 | Raz Dvora | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.8586607984093, "platformFee": 77.8586607984093, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717855512493 | 2250 | RazDvora | 1716107937921 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f2434f12fa69", "prob": 0.19, "text": "A n*log n solution is not good enough for some question", "index": 0, "poolNo": 121.93442847950035, "userId": "DQ2RrGtZJee7Ddv6dTLcVIRy9OZ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 512.5705740319884, "textFts": "'enough':9 'good':8 'log':3 'n':2,4 'question':12 'solut':5", "contract... | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708245879800 | 0 | 0.25 | 1716106840579 | 0.65 | DQ2RrGtZJee7Ddv6dTLcVIRy9OZ2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bIR7hnblBA7UghsOBxYE | msi-2024-who-will-win-on-may-18th | 0 | MSI 2024: Who will win on May 18th? | wKIi82LOmqWZqGIvPjtgH9s44tu2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715946145079 | Ayrtonite | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Ayrtonite | 1715946145498 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699723035478 | 0 | [{"name": "League of Legends", "slug": "league-of-legends", "groupId": "0SkUfk47dKNXXscUS87T", "createdTime": 1715946145486}, {"name": "Esports", "slug": "esports", "groupId": "XmzXsWcpvMK0PSBDNpVc", "createdTime": 1715946145480}, {"name": "MSI 2024", "slug": "msi-2024", "groupId": "a5f542e1-2f04-48a0-ac9d-f813fd47b9c9... | ["league-of-legends", "esports", "msi-2024"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | NkqPRYw0ZGSKPHgMs5Xu | {"NO": 374.6022945922641, "YES": 2669.4977965590188} | 0.1230584683076532 | will-google-integrate-bitcoin-light-43192fbc2dce | 4781.23409051035 | Will Google integrate Bitcoin Lightning payments in the Play Store by the end of 2025? | 1767139140000 | tsO9TwTg5wRIo3aZccQb1ZTrl2p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.49454064501861 | False | basic | public | 1715950202726 | O | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.011617895737025, "platformFee": 37.48906763939739, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Oscar | 1716669520669 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOscar%2FS3R7rueYkn.PORTRAIT?alt=media&token=3e11b3ca-3958-4ee3-a47b-b04203e3835d | 31 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691761314790 | 0 | [{"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1715950203251}, {"name": "Lightning Network", "slug": "lightning-network", "groupId": "d8a4f5d5-b623-4401-923c-4c0fb03bd345", "createdTime": 1715950203262}, {"name": "Google", "slug": "google-ef2cf716540e", "groupId": "z9iJRHL... | ["bitcoin", "lightning-network", "google-ef2cf716540e", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716669517010 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999992 | xngB69oK8y0f0aIBLJQi | {"NO": 3750.318194692918, "YES": 266.6440414083008} | 1 | wil-biden-veto-the-sab-121-overturn | 11669.004316834538 | Wil Biden veto the SAB 121 overturn? | 1717224610148 | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.861366496357327 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715950870559 | Tony Gao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/05/16/us-senate-votes-to-kill-secs-crypto-accounting-policy-testing-bidens-veto-threat/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coind... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07639817014775396} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 113.24470703390855, "platformFee": 74.6218402927469, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717224610148 | 1000 | TonyGao | 1717224610148 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697428923391 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1715950871316}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717224598574 | 1717213058270 | 0.93 | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kYgf8E2zxzwz4Fdh6BFQ | {"NO": 1295.694231779584, "YES": 771.7870277361193} | 0.6267018024062253 | will-it-be-possible-to-significantl | 635 | Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035? | 2056748340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580782029698529 | False | basic | public | 1715953081605 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if there is a credible clinical trial that demonstrates an intervention significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis before January 1st 2035.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.018403242015185173} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.378571232279596, "platformFee": 8.489966993840035, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719522334030 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Atherosclerosis", "slug": "atherosclerosis", "groupId": "f4b1acd1-ac96-4869-8903-d91621d4f8b4", "createdTime": 1715953081910}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1715953081911}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOp... | ["atherosclerosis", "biotech", "science-default", "medicine", "heart-health"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522330612 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | li0uRjHBX4BnqOBrXBkV | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-introduction-to-cancer-vaccine | 0 | Will "introduction to cancer vaccines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | basic | public | 1715957241734 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1715957242049 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715957242049}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dieN4aoGXvFyy52HqLQs | how-many-modern-horizons-3-cards-wi | 2762.7420490792847 | How many Modern Horizons 3 cards will be banned in Modern by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715957995117 | Multicore | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Modern Horizons 3 is a Magic: The Gathering set that comes out in June 2024. Modern is one of the playable formats of Magic: The Gathering. How many of the cards MH3 introduces to Modern will be banned in that format before the end of 2025?", "type... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.21882781899055, "platformFee": 17.380929217441768, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Multicore | 1719763276947 | 0 | 12 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "0ff0a6341bdf", "prob": 0.9570613458152589, "text": "At least one", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1180.2817245331157, "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.95345907751232, "textFts": "'least':2 'one':3", "contractId": "dieN4aoGXvFyy52HqLQs", "createdTime": 1715957995117, "probChanges... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645577344535 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715957995517}, {"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1715957995523}] | ["gaming", "magic-the-gathering"] | 0.25 | 1719763273895 | 1718278990651 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | B2GKRGRubpCzwWgfCDRV | {"NO": 1073.6465503185239, "YES": 931.4052186944823} | 0.5354707379186676 | will-charlie-get-to-bed-by-1030pm-a | 126 | Will @Charlie get to bed by 10:30pm at least 2 times this week? | 1716549540000 | 3qVyst7MBPNUbQsnEX7JbJhWLew1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571117428012535 | False | basic | public | 1715959188026 | emile.chat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat. Note: My comments on this market are in beta, so take them as signal but not gospel.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.182982762695419, "platformFee": 1.9801018241659445, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | emile | 1716540718782 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691876598453 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716540715319 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | EJxJPYWIJOTW5TwqOnBE | {"NO": 1096.7693839261674, "YES": 911.7687042103998} | 0.5460535652294757 | will-the-first-minister-of-wales-va | 100 | Will the First Minister of Wales, Vaughan Gething MS, still be First Minister by the end of 2024 | 1735689540000 | Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658363807154 | False | basic | public | 1715960201751 | Harry Hayfield | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today (May 17th 2024) Plaid Cymru withdrew from the co-operation agreement they have with Welsh Labour in the Senedd. This means that Labour has a majority of 1 in the Senedd, Labour 30, Opposition 29, with one non voting member. The Conservative l... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6153080369162431, "platformFee": 1.6153080369162431, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HarryHayfield | 1715973755446 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708098506766 | 0 | [{"name": "Wales", "slug": "wales", "groupId": "4YPwQjG5rhD94K7VqFAr", "createdTime": 1715960202073}] | ["wales"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1715973751911 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 1fo5Ndro9z2wWFB6msdT | {"NO": 558.7832095400986, "YES": 1789.6028064677196} | 0.2379435091723177 | will-nc-outlaw-publicly-wearing-a-m | 1887 | Will NC outlaw publicly wearing a mask for health reasons? | 1735707540000 | aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.623703467817583 | False | basic | public | 1715960402990 | Tricky Duck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The North Carolina State Senate on May 15 voted in favor of a bill that would make it illegal for people to wear a mask in public for health reasons. This bill repeals a legal exemption enacted during COVID that allowed public health-based masking... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.0210879812563598} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.81624118969367, "platformFee": 23.25560707337235, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TrickyDuck | 1718403825674 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694576187214 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715960403484}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715960403483}, {"name": "Culture War", "slug": "culture-war", "groupId": "DEHK9bp6pMlniVYuHPKI", "cr... | ["science-default", "us-politics", "culture-war", "health"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718403822616 | 1716011651765 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14 | 0QZ3cpt5gu804Eoy219G | {"NO": 999.8388811465743, "YES": 1000.9902998636943} | 0.1398614840302215 | will-gender-exploration-make-the-to | 1 | Will "Gender Exploration" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894633869037342 | False | basic | public | 1715972008357 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.004850068152861891, "platformFee": 0.004850068152861891, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1715988389697 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715972008681}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1715988386430 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | FYo8KI68oSzQjsdjj54D | {"NO": 183.09354118077476, "YES": 5461.689110118098} | 0 | will-destiny-buy-a-new-car-by-the-e | 12042.42517171548 | Will Destiny buy a new car by the end of June 2024? | 1719817140000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.886617617398198 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715972193342 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny has expressed interest in buying a new car because he is tired of his Focus RS. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://files.catbox.moe/fqeg10.mp4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04893117516736008, "month": -0.19600410735586277} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 132.20379066842423, "platformFee": 76.9556995946174, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719858259358 | 1000 | PunishedFurry | 1719817140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 45 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1715972193670}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715972193668}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDl... | ["destinygg", "technology-default", "politics-default", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719802827964 | 1715972570542 | 0.03 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | yKjlk6Kr3gFdwzLKme3A | {"NO": 4954.729342526128, "YES": 201.82737156136136} | 1 | will-rudy-giuliani-be-located-in-ma | 6366.774650327641 | Will Rudy Giuliani be located in May 2024? | 1716028641505 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.893426536669157 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715976643490 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if the location of Rudy Giuliani (dead or alive) is confirmed beyond public doubt before June 1 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/man... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.158898280258946, "platformFee": 35.158898280258946, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716028641505 | 1000 | itsTomekK | 1716028641505 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1658666303973 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716012438429 | 1716012214215 | 0.96 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 123RjTPtWKShbU30EGbF | {"NO": 1155.7469899103014, "YES": 865.2412757550086} | 1 | do-i-have-the-best-usernamemy-opini | 1227.068037643738 | Do I have the best username?
(My opinion) | 1716043580376 | INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573588942699207 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715977067818 | Casey The Grip Lord | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link other people with better names.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves on the end of may", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.719849898637403, "platformFee": 20.719849898637403, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716043580376 | 1000 | CaseyTheGripLord | 1716045168916 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715975256334 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1715977068187}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1715977068178}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZ... | ["culture-default", "politics-default", "technology-default", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1716043570935 | 1716045167466 | 0.57 | INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rwHwjaFa3ILvKzaxEIkS | will-upenn-fire-amy-wax-by-end-of-2 | 0 | will Upenn fire Amy Wax by end of 2024 ? | 1735590900000 | 9mJKCO8c7AUyngjevC2vh3eXsCk2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1715977871453 | KIM Jin- hyub | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amy Wax controversial upenn professor ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | KIMJinhyub | 1715978145975 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKVD_BvO6ujaiSjyj5fdJQzdVW0d0iSdyiZAeG8boU4=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698322002326 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715977871779}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | fJ3UFAf9q8NfVoKWT7tq | {"NO": 1212.6367527703567, "YES": 824.6492593230635} | 0 | will-jan-leike-criticize-openai-in | 363.195899919457 | Will Jan Leike criticize OpenAI in an interview with a major news organization by the end of June? [Closes early] | 1717225140000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576113347968999 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715980187408 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan Leike announced his resignation in a Twitter thread critical of OpenAI leadership: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/janleike/status/1791498174659715494", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/jan... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5952216554632446, "month": -0.5952216554632446} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.05151358075183, "platformFee": 4.140169492408533, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720027927067 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1717225140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1715980187726}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715980187725}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "create... | ["ai-regulation", "openai", "ai-alignment", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717083968244 | 1716030138394 | 0.6 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14000000000000004 | tVjwOnjKLbDqtyjB2kG4 | {"NO": 1009.4347180723737, "YES": 943.9477792036782} | 0.1482724745446268 | will-the-king-and-the-golem-make-th | 10 | Will "The King and the Golem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888513794005988 | False | basic | public | 1715981407858 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.28264096381313253, "platformFee": 0.28264096381313253, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1715982702994 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1715981408310}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1715982699753 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | DuhP5JenHm1uxuro1B2z | {"NO": 1169.5387751995572, "YES": 855.0379185413252} | 0.5776707688156576 | will-it-be-possible-to-significantl-310b616ee40d | 175 | Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034? | 2025212340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574145036532519 | False | basic | public | 1715983405541 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if there is a credible clinical trial that demonstrates an intervention significantly reducing the progression of atherosclerosis before January 1st 2034.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.012351235199349664} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.1674286861597407, "platformFee": 2.293796114283018, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719522327337 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1715983405895}, {"name": "Atherosclerosis", "slug": "atherosclerosis", "groupId": "f4b1acd1-ac96-4869-8903-d91621d4f8b4", "createdTime": 1715983405900}, {"name": "⚕️ Medicine", "slug": "medicine", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8"... | ["biotech", "atherosclerosis", "medicine", "science-default", "heart-health"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719522324300 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aRYSXfkSv2wAp0xtUAv1 | what-will-be-manifolds-daily-active | 10286.414956325743 | What will be Manifold's Daily Active Users (7-day avg) on July 15th? | 1719903540000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.907555691690755 | False | plus | public | 1715983490438 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Less than 1000 resolves to 1000. Greater than 2500 resolves to 2500.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the number of Daily Active Users (based mostly on bets) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text":... | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 527.9871020043718, "platformFee": 215.53795236418893, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | JamesGrugett | 1719894422053 | 0 | 22 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "10557e02a789", "prob": 0.009510239790465575, "text": "1000-1050", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.97912256026794, "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9475.459218087928, "textFts": "'-1050':2 '1000':1", "contractId": "aRYSXfkSv2wAp0xtUAv1", "createdTime": 1715983490438, "probChanges"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1715983490932}] | ["manifold-user-retention"] | 0.25 | 1719894418143 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 9DTDU7N5iTbhU78ilknl | {"NO": 314.48545101657544, "YES": 3179.797338056487} | 0.08999999999999998 | will-i-get-more-in-fees-returned-li | 6641.8099690055005 | Will I get more in fees + returned liquidity than the cost of my numeric Daily Active Users market? | 1719903540000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.789890430543576 | False | basic | public | 1715984171008 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will I profit as a creator? The market costs 10k mana to create. However, I close the market July 1st to preserve liquidity.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you didn't know, you get back more mana from ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.0349365417624907, "month": -0.0349365417624907} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.21405408171552, "platformFee": 30.731379774868593, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesGrugett | 1719895509600 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715984171344}, {"name": "Market creators", "slug": "market-creators", "groupId": "ac20822d-090e-4e74-8d5e-e98a7b998078", "createdTime": 1715984171345}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "market-creators"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719877781899 | 1719895508432 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | uZlV1b0rFo3DiVpv9oDj | {"NO": 1057.0422680292436, "YES": 946.0359630314551} | 1 | will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-574b6b896f77 | 64.93868567900279 | Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher May 31 than May 24? | 1716577200000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570811150268527 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715986236387 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/st... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.0092450406676083, "platformFee": 0.06750680537008012, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717186796098 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1716577200000 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Stocks", "slug": "ai-stocks", "groupId": "Jf4rKNcxovEVEE8CyOgN", "createdTime": 1715986236851}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1715986236861}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 171598623686... | ["ai-stocks", "finance", "stocks", "tech-stocks", "apple"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716575655904 | 0.53 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | RdVW8vDfTlAgH8HPgBHd | {"NO": 1102.090127402328, "YES": 907.3668070659909} | 0 | will-tesla-nasdaq-tsla-close-higher-889f8a637404 | 112 | Will Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) close higher May 31 than May 24? | 1716577200000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571800907417536 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715986368124 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tesla Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.725695207914753, "platformFee": 0.8905382403820408, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717186760017 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1716577200000 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1715986369918}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1715986369919}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTim... | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716576720186 | 0.55 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | Um1Ul2p0cIUSlBivFJ0Q | {"NO": 1281.2976062914677, "YES": 780.4588060492524} | 1 | will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-ebb423ddf2d8 | 300.02994136498774 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 31 than May 24? | 1716577200000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.579897705466479 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715986541985 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.7457957399294655, "platformFee": 1.1864637487769416, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717186643317 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1716577200000 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1715986542300}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1715986542322}, {"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "crea... | ["nvidia", "tech-stocks", "gpu", "stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716576143832 | 0.62 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kHcRnIcFdMkU1S2kCX91 | {"NO": 603.5307469949257, "YES": 1656.916412260944} | 0 | will-manifold-inaugurate-its-new-pl | 674 | Will Manifold inaugurate its new platform by June 1, 2024? | 1717188654666 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.61036477898459 | True | basic | NO | public | 1715987482135 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't be betting on this. It may be difficult to know the complete answer.But I'll be laughing with you as you share your best guess, and I'll resolve it on June 1, or whenever seems right.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.363087631358951, "platformFee": 2.7205001076969486, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717188654666 | 1000 | JimFix | 1717188654666 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1715987482976}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1715987482980}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717188142568 | 1717188134944 | 0.27 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4403860165410084 | kXenVnra4Et495OqjRmA | {"NO": 3393.5636283244467, "YES": 3616.579134653108} | 0.42476475526607516 | will-there-be-an-attempt-of-radical | 1385 | Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030? | 1893452340000 | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.416765493010785 | False | basic | public | 1715987641544 | Ihor Kendiukhov | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Investment Threshold:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The program mus... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.007892466356091976} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.50036048292755, "platformFee": 21.55218819260168, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3500 | IhorKendiukhov | 1717786468082 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680382822335 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715987642152}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715987642162}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime"... | ["technology-default", "science-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717786464960 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sTFxRtTWZEorUDgLU8hb | what-will-be-true-of-the-1-best-alb | 21245.756219841154 | What will be true of the #1 "Best Album" on the "Apple Music's 100 Best Albums" list? | 1716386615284 | vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1715988511276 | Marnix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Music has, with the help of \"artists and experts,\" compiled a \"definitive list of the greatest albums ever made,\" and is slowly releasing it over time. What will be true of the number one album? ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://100be... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 85.2892134635379, "platformFee": 85.2892134635379, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716386615284 | 1500 | Marnix | 1716386641414 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "16da83055928", "prob": 0.01, "text": "In the top 10 on RateYourMusic.com", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.697622222742666, "userId": "vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3633.0646000515, "textFts": "'10':4 'rateyourmusic.com':6 'top':3", "contractId": "sTFxRtTWZEorUDgLU8hb", "resolution": "NO... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697603196159 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1715988511701}, {"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1715988511705}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOS... | ["entertainment", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "apple"] | 0.25 | 1716382558768 | 1716386639845 | 0.01 | vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
we9YbllUXYRONdiVj8Ed | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-86 | 500 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 86) | 1716155940000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1715989204088 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon mark... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.336721680459494, "platformFee": 4.336721680459494, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716159166139 | 1250 | komplexkonjugat | 1716160837812 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0c26e9905320", "prob": 0.94, "text": "Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 741.326556639081, "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 84.30832463813715, "textFts": "'answer':10 'comment':7 'execut':1 'instruct':3 'mattcwilson':... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698548141721 | 0 | [{"name": "ManifoldPlaysCiv6", "slug": "manifoldplaysciv6", "groupId": "5fb3f729-faaa-425d-9c1b-c04c78abe1b4", "createdTime": 1715989204431}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1715989204451}] | ["manifoldplaysciv6", "gaming"] | 0.25 | 1716150712378 | 1716160836281 | 0.94 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
b4e95uFi5E41AWTRIzOj | if-biden-loses-what-will-be-the-mai | 5510.8155596813585 | If Biden loses, what will be the main reason (according to Manifold) [Open Answer] | 1731733140000 | yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1715990125750 | Paper Boy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please feel free to add responses!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden loses the general election, then in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "mid-late November ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.07665593352156, "platformFee": 47.45827587393871, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1800 | PaperBoy | 1720021810704 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c | 21 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e14be060bc46", "prob": 0.04473761485561563, "text": "Israel/Palestine", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.40654849536969, "userId": "yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1439.3020391867153, "textFts": "'israel/palestine':1", "contractId": "b4e95uFi5E41AWTRIzOj", "createdTime": 1715990125751, "pro... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699382550755 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1715990126338}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1715990126347}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 17159... | ["donald-trump", "us-politics", "polls", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 1720021806812 | 1719782442621 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | mSuyIAdIBe1CmId1BJrJ | {"NO": 448.6602757495937, "YES": 2228.857899953953} | 0.16756572553674767 | will-destiny-talk-about-an-assassin | 2177.1798299470947 | Will Destiny talk about an assassination attempt on his life on stream before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.672856892245434 | False | basic | public | 1715992847002 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if he describes it as a serious attempt on his life that involves law enforcement. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0063474658187434585} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.008986331080262, "platformFee": 19.297814628899072, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718451538490 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "DalibanHQ", "slug": "dalibanhq", "groupId": "7m4wLsWHjWcnZgzXm0Xs", "createdTime": 1715992847349}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1715992847357}, {"name": "Drama", "slug": "drama", "groupId": "R43etpZETahlV98T5b9u", "createdTime": 171599... | ["dalibanhq", "celebrities", "drama", "internet", "destinygg"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718451535431 | 1716400234243 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2643315371318849 | t7Ewym4a84h1HwAnaWmL | {"NO": 43704.82209574694, "YES": 77673.25880210513} | 0 | will-apple-announce-new-hardware-at | 90310.43782916485 | Will Apple announce new hardware at WWDC 2024? | 1718048889936 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9059931837255086 | True | plus | NO | public | 1715995329544 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if Apple announces any new hardware during the main keynote of WWDC 2024. It is sufficient to resolve ‘yes’ even if the announcement is only a spec bump to an existing design, such as a chip upgrade for the Mac mini.", "type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.27084901731896754} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1240.9434848600438, "platformFee": 311.9840680689738, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718048889936 | 51000 | Predict | 1718130036377 | 0 | 231 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715995329904}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1715995329909}, {"name": "📱 WWDC 2024", "slug": "-wwdc-2024", "groupId": "49de1328-c259-49f7-addf-87115e888... | ["technology-default", "apple", "-wwdc-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718048646631 | 1718130034690 | 0.17 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BMDscztgdMWL0obAom5s | will-destiny-say-the-nword-on-episo | 0 | Will Destiny say the N-word on Episode 8 of "Anything Else" | 1715997537082 | xGTLncgrkIQNBv2Y9Lcffe6WULx2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1715995451167 | Doug Dimmadome | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Destiny say the N-word on Episode 8 of \"Anything Else\" ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715997540704 | DougDimmadome | 1715997538664 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3UECY5h9TWmUH7QpJhwRoZekioXFjqXaM58D6f=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1667887097477 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1715995451472}, {"name": "Streaming", "slug": "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "groupId": "aqYOc680xI6KmGP1jZUG", "createdTime": 1715995451473}, {"name": "dgg.chatters", "slug": "dggchatters", "groupId": "OXtQ9c4V533PY7QINlWn", "... | ["destinygg", "streaming-b160dddff0ab", "dggchatters"] | 0.25 | ["56a89e4c6b93"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5201270166839823 | bHMGQahuOFusa3PUughA | {"NO": 3409.9309332861753, "YES": 381.4051691858394} | 0.9064582119517344 | will-china-win-the-international-ma | 6207.981877009531 | Will China win the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) 2024 | 1721771940000 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.479815997980115 | False | basic | public | 1715996344316 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2024 IMO is held in the UK between the 11th - 22nd of July 2024. Each participating country sends 6 competitors and the score for a country is the sum of the scores of its individual participants. Will China win again? (Tied for first would res... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.08816115751972786} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 93.05045291109586, "platformFee": 18.289964956488244, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | Predict | 1719493752928 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1715996344927}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1715996344997}, {"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t... | ["competition-math", "science-default", "mathematics", "imo", "imo-grand-challenge"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719493749852 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 7YpjdEQWYnpXLs0wHlfn | {"NO": 333.9529463907301, "YES": 2994.433829099934} | 0.1003347774513073 | will-the-us-win-the-international-m | 2501.1109180855096 | Will the US win the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) 2024 | 1721771940000 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.766663422418652 | False | basic | public | 1715996468820 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2024 IMO is held in the UK between the 11th - 22nd of July 2024. Each participating country sends 6 competitors and the score for a country is the sum of the scores of its individual participants. Will the US break China's winning streak? (Tied... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.10159433194219684} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.534749948401696, "platformFee": 8.12229315757443, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Predict | 1718611345132 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1715996469292}, {"name": "Competition Math", "slug": "competition-math", "groupId": "64e0006d-606d-4e68-ad95-045c341bb9d1", "createdTime": 1715996469326}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "... | ["imo-grand-challenge", "competition-math", "science-default", "mathematics", "imo"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718611342070 | 1716042793963 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4893374185464956 | 2ptXpYC8ZGy3Hai7xP7F | {"NO": 753.0199972734238, "YES": 1626.0756537410168} | 0.30736018298891665 | will-apple-reduce-the-price-of-the | 3629.462447339217 | Will Apple reduce the price of the Apple Vision Pro before 2025? | 1735685940000 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.223234244697373 | False | basic | public | 1715996933105 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current base price of the Apple Vision Pro is $3499, will it be reduced on the official Apple US website before 2025?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See this market for prior to 2026:", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05578140404386789} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.39372810390611, "platformFee": 48.82005376538706, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | Predict | 1718868254448 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1715996933425}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715996933429}, {"name": "👓 Apple Vision Pro", "slug": "apple-vision-pro", "groupId": "gEardgc5T6coQqiEmYG1... | ["apple", "technology-default", "apple-vision-pro", "virtual-reality"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718868251396 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | LJeH1TLXjZ6dDFptVsRY | {"NO": 1128.0229575661624, "YES": 886.5067801081057} | 0.5599435622471581 | will-apple-reduce-the-price-of-the-f1e3ce3ba239 | 230 | Will Apple reduce the price of the Apple Vision Pro before 2026? | 1767221940000 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572587686221782 | False | basic | public | 1715996982273 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current price of the base model Apple Vision Pro is $3499, will it be reduced on the official Apple US website before 2026?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See this market for prior to 202... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.520545273768285, "platformFee": 2.990664774667088, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Predict | 1716940111915 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1715996982739}, {"name": "👓 Apple Vision Pro", "slug": "apple-vision-pro", "groupId": "gEardgc5T6coQqiEmYG1", "createdTime": 1715996982740}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih",... | ["virtual-reality", "apple-vision-pro", "apple"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716940108492 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | auzOLj2mRk8vblYzsjWR | {"NO": 10043.471741056985, "YES": 99.5671642020042} | 1 | will-apple-mention-chatgpt-at-wwdc | 25738.070508140478 | Will Apple mention 'ChatGPT' at WWDC 2024? | 1718049058766 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849207678040518 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715997528335 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are rumours that Apple may be announcing a partnership with OpenAI during WWDC 2024. Regardless of if such a partnership is announced or not this question resolves positively if an Apple presenter mentions 'ChatGPT' during the main keynote of... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.31999999999999995} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 375.27506375956085, "platformFee": 75.61653326294675, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718049058766 | 1000 | Predict | 1718049058766 | 0 | 125 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715997528645}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1715997528655}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 17... | ["technology-default", "openai", "apple", "-wwdc-2024", "chatgpt"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718044850265 | 1718044742564 | 0.99 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35776934528217347 | oOXo53dEmCvcKkiXnPLa | {"NO": 580.1895060804153, "YES": 3857.5966711558667} | 0.07730758334870204 | will-the-aimo-artificial-intelligen | 3541.182174975145 | Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2025? | 1735685940000 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.662566701943728 | False | basic | public | 1715998610033 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize is a $5 million award for the first publicly shared AI model to achieve a performance equivalent to a gold medal in the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO).", "type": "text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 27.28938929401355, "platformFee": 26.741028694145363, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1300 | Predict | 1717704762647 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "🧮 Math", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1715998610432}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715998610434}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "created... | ["mathematics", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "imo-grand-challenge"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717704759554 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | cRLWPEmpLiI9Eu7Chdwy | {"NO": 707.9750189564644, "YES": 1412.4792163909597} | 0.3338789430843183 | will-the-aimo-artificial-intelligen-66329672fb1c | 1066.6009157760643 | Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026? | 1767221940000 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.588946458600319 | False | basic | public | 1715998680900 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize is a $5 million award for the first publicly shared AI model to achieve a performance equivalent to a gold medal in the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO).", "type": "text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.06387894308431807, "month": 0.06387894308431807} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.480557795904, "platformFee": 9.596614651669933, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Predict | 1719719241497 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1715998681240}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1715998681243}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9l... | ["technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719719238317 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000021 | sFLTrrt9vVkquBti85Nu | {"NO": 9949.874371066118, "YES": 100.50378152592248} | 1 | will-apple-surpass-microsoft-in-mar | 23009.227397578918 | Will Apple surpass Microsoft in market capitalization in 2024? | 1718317908180 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923084 | True | basic | YES | public | 1715999572621 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if, on any trading day in 2024 and after this questions creation, after the markets have closed, Apple’s market capitalization exceeds Microsoft’s market capitalization. This will be determined based on the closing prices and nu... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5279487029863696} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 80.68782755142419, "platformFee": 11.537272297556958, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718317908180 | 1000 | Predict | 1718319701431 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1715999572950}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1715999572945}, {"name": "Microsoft", "slug": "microsoft", "groupId": "bKtvk7DIpkrzESy6I3ZK", "createdTime": 1715999572963}, ... | ["apple", "stocks", "microsoft", "sp-500-439f18dbc885"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718316626771 | 1718319700097 | 0.99 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4800282917289007 | XqOAM8EVhiMLjXad9A18 | {"NO": 1150.9312890536523, "YES": 1030.319460535061} | 0.5076926833239522 | will-apples-market-cap-exceed-micro | 1706.1749190105074 | Will Apple’s Market Cap Exceed Microsoft’s at the End of 2024? | 1735685940000 | brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.267692432190294 | False | basic | public | 1715999836143 | Predict | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if, after the markets have closed on the last trading day of 2024, Apple’s market capitalization exceeds Microsoft’s market capitalization. This will be determined based on the closing prices and number of shares as reported by ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.21943691331647275} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 37.48293151718614, "platformFee": 11.888492673962853, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | Predict | 1719244164895 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674173931553 | 0 | [{"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1715999836438}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1715999836443}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5"... | ["sp-500-439f18dbc885", "tech-stocks", "stocks", "apple", "microsoft"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719244161833 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 1RwP6aErYPN76iKOBqOl | {"NO": 998.3970315847275, "YES": 1009.903424003701} | 0.138626024087941 | will-on-the-fli-open-letter-make-th | 10 | Will "On the FLI Open Letter" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.89558686474852 | False | basic | public | 1716004389658 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.04828799814946712, "platformFee": 0.04828799814946712, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1716028060394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716004389976}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1716028053641 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VZ9Uc8FuonVyDucoOpJl | which-public-figures-will-selfident-5611bb4f2267 | 1434.9171071791711 | Which public figures will self-identify as "polyamorous" or "ethically non-monogamous" before the US election? | 1730879940000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716004811820 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumors will not count, no matter how substantiated. A name resolves yes if there is a quote from the person saying describing themselves as practicing \"polyamory\", \"ethical non-monogamy\", or \"relationship anarchy\".", "type": "text"}, {"type":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 14.345107744122517, "platformFee": 13.389739139576887, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1250 | Joshua | 1719989508743 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e4c63a4d9553", "prob": 0.10852644663730099, "text": "Sam Altman", "index": 0, "poolNo": 87.22752873863382, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 716.5169173515541, "textFts": "'altman':2 'sam':1", "contractId": "VZ9Uc8FuonVyDucoOpJl", "createdTime": 1716004811821, "probChanges"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1716004812333}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1716004812360}, {"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId"... | ["entertainment", "sex-and-love", "celebrities", "culture-default", "personal-goals"] | 0.25 | 1719188298425 | 1719989507767 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gWb6vRFXbQjmzrRaYz8I | which-public-figures-will-selfident-632da1853c0a | 2383.8883425729564 | Which public figures will self-identify as "polyamorous" or "ethically non-monogamous" before August? | 1722581940000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716004925116 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumors will not count, no matter how substantiated. A name resolves yes if there is a quote from the person saying describing themselves as practicing \"polyamory\", \"ethical non-monogamy\", or \"relationship anarchy\".", "type": "text"}, {"type":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.01397726804188, "platformFee": 14.846054607875743, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Joshua | 1719069946946 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c9f6cef61cc0", "prob": 0.05054877976823945, "text": "Sam Altman", "index": 0, "poolNo": 57.68448482526391, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1083.4802493135396, "textFts": "'altman':2 'sam':1", "contractId": "gWb6vRFXbQjmzrRaYz8I", "createdTime": 1716004925116, "probChanges... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1716004925583}, {"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1716004925585}, {"name": "❤️🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE... | ["celebrities", "personal-goals", "sex-and-love", "entertainment", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1719069943877 | 1716005015008 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | v2ldtBJkt0vnN8Fx7uG4 | {"NO": 1175.1393027860129, "YES": 850.96294339677} | 0.58 | is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha | 23621.651729036796 | Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival? | 2209093140000 | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.326348238031611 | False | basic | public | 1716006420421 | Krantz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"truth economy\" is a free and open network state predictive market economy where humanity verified users can wager on factual statements intentionally to produce the market data that is needed to create a decentralized (controlled by competing ... | BINARY | {"day": 0.11099981068543469, "week": 0.02435132637994597, "month": 0.04243228501704177} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 281.63898421840344, "platformFee": 75.49480207982654, "liquidityFee": 0} | 335.889913040949 | 1000 | Krantz | 1720200805819 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710040515504 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716006420784}] | ["ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720200802776 | 1718289248135 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000001 | tL3AvNsyU5WibSmWFCOj | {"NO": 999.9999999999985, "YES": 1000.0000000000019} | 1 | daily-coinflip-432791f65c14 | 6473.966146697568 | Daily coinflip | 1716177540000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714741 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716006994530 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 151)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 59.28194250901095, "platformFee": 59.28194250901095, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716196242985 | 1000 | Traveel | 1716196946230 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1716006994860}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1716006994866}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac... | ["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1716131202370 | 1716196945016 | 0.5 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6YZwkZhNUuw38sAdO7Wq | will-home-team-win-may-19-2024-matc | 36359.11554888606 | Will home team win? (May 19, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️ | 1716179668276 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.849733294274992 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1716007149398 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "⚽ Will home team win? (May 19, 2024 matches)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market includes the main football matches taking place on Sunday, May 19, 2024. The matches featured in this mar... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 113.22824477475078, "platformFee": 113.22824477475078, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716179668276 | 3250 | FranklinBaldo | 1716179674092 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "05820aa60646", "prob": 0.01, "text": "18:00 - Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin - Liga Profesional Argentina 🇦🇷", "index": 0, "poolNo": 100.52545294632819, "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9947.729362969496, "textFts": "'00':2 '18':1 'argentina':10 'barraca':3 'centra... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1659579722296 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1716007149747}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 1716179667872 | 1716179671645 | 0.01 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
l9BcuGhhzrSwMhjY7lGz | how-many-active-prize-points-market | 4493.517796908418 | How many active Prize Points Markets will there be on July 1? (Mana / Pivot) | 1719847052715 | r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 6179524e19e0 | public | 1716007258691 | JTX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.4779404115206, "platformFee": 7.084810812093793, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719847052715 | 1250 | JTX | 1719847052715 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIWpw3Ji0_FKBH_hj2ajSiZIzdEesxe7nRROOtu1r8g=s96-c | 16 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "657d186f5417", "prob": 0.03792208545332597, "text": "0-9", "color": "#e91e63", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.45347594523543, "userId": "r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1482.95637128427, "textFts": "'-9':2 '0':1", "contractId": "l9BcuGhhzrSwMhjY7lGz", "resolverId": "r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709796917854 | 0 | [{"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1716007259107}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1716007259096}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUB... | ["mana", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot"] | 0.25 | 1719839268019 | {"6179524e19e0": 100} | r4B7egayyXYPFEDLI5YGAB4NiG32 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | 0el9oYUdyj2aqM822Esg | {"NO": 1245.7985814758022, "YES": 802.6979761169564} | 0.6081526360677774 | will-any-more-executives-after-ilya | 4152.229417732042 | Will any more executives after Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike leave OpenAI before Sept 1st 2024? | 1725222180000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.394061260203822 | False | basic | public | 1716010129121 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike left the company on the week of May 13th, there are no rumoured major departures (like Ilya's was for a long time).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will resolv... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.018986567369140173, "month": 0.20774830873708128} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 109.04088175398668, "platformFee": 14.495947552349243, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1719679093650 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716010129490}, {"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1716010129513}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716010129578}... | ["ai", "ai-regulation", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719679090551 | 1718836322039 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | QUPGBrfssMEx0dCOl2he | {"NO": 994.165730158658, "YES": 1036.5978389720929} | 0.13504313831150927 | will-ai-4-introducing-gpt4-make-the | 110 | Will "AI #4: Introducing GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.898435796473645 | False | basic | public | 1716012979858 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.749516384213819, "platformFee": 0.749516384213819, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1716028004692 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716012980172}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1716028001414 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FnbXDa3tYJBHAFSzJ8lx | which-household-name-will-announce | 0 | Which household name will announce they are entering into politics on TVNZ Q&A tomorrow? | 1716620340000 | AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716013436697 | Ben J. Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1250 | B | 1716013471232 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCGCi4xMp-2XlWaLAbGSnKLhGWWxkZiwQprp0zZg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "87129fd230cb", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Mahe Drysdale", "index": 0, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'drysdal':2 'mahe':1", "contractId": "FnbXDa3tYJBHAFSzJ8lx", "createdTime": 1716044900643, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "s... | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645485681095 | 0 | [{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1716013437017}] | ["nz-politics"] | 0.25 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IidA9TN3ii1NbJANLjEQ | if-manifold-asked-to-convert-one-of | 0 | If Manifold asked to convert one of your markets to pay out Prize Points instead of Mana, would you say Yes? Why? | 1718686740000 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1716015593328 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold has started picking some markets that pay out in Prize Points. Prize Points are intended to be convertible into USD at some point in the future. This question concerns the process where Manifold changes a regular, mana-payout market to ins... | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718686740409 | Eliza | 1716278790758 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 71 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680816506031 | 0 | [{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1716015593633}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1716015593634}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e"... | ["pivot-predictions", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "pivot"] | 0.25 | 1716278789016 | ["735f3aca4d47"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 036c8HC8uf3j8SYg0OLu | {"NO": 1240.8635764776625, "YES": 805.8903645464569} | 1 | 3k-subsidy-game-6-will-edmonton-oil | 833.9504273948464 | 5K Subsidy (Game 6) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Vancouver Canucks on May 18 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs) | 1716076800000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577578410842587 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716016607025 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Canucks are leading the series is tied ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "3-2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-4... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 13.036095368080002, "platformFee": 13.036095368080002, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716087749551 | 5000 | KeenenW | 1716076800000 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716016607502}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716016607504}, {"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1716... | ["culture-default", "sports-default", "nhl", "sports-betting", "hockey"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716071503207 | 0.61 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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