CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.5

8t8xml2ofz

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Will the UK rejoin the EU, the single market or the customs union in Keir Starmer's lifetime?

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cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1720059889864

Josh Wilkes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This might be the only time I do a death market, but he literally said this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/britain-will-not-rejoin-eu...

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JoshuaWilkes

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if-biden-drops-out-will-he-also-res

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If Biden drops out, will he also resign during his first term?

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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Magnus

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves 100% to one of the four options.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Drop out", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " in this context may mean:", "type": "text"}]}, {...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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thepurplebull

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DISABLED

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{"NO": 2037.3388095374403, "YES": 490.83637700252785}

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will-a-california-national-park-be

1060.5481033399442

Will a California national park be shutdown due to wildfire this year?

1735718340000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

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9.650702209767747

False

basic

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1720063635716

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Partial shutdown counts. Resolves according to park official reports", "type": "text"}]}]}

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DismalScientist

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{"NO": 50.564450895333266, "YES": 197.7674002769192}

0.20361645377603957

will-trumps-conviction-for-felony-f

100

Will Trump’s conviction for felony falsification of business records be overtruned?

1782878340000

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cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

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1720065646314

Charles Paul

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to yes if Donald Trump’s conviction in the hush money case is overturned before 6/30/26, whehter or not he is convicted on any additonal charges. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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CharlesPaul

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2568.2302415944578

Will Tesla TSLA reach a new all time high this year?

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hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.73585270743699

False

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1720067238453

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using $407 as ATH", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be verified by multiple exchanges", "type": "text"}]}]}

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strutheo

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{"NO": 921.8717979774211, "YES": 1288.4433950239045}

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conditional-on-trump-being-elected-szc95ljilc

332

Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?

1857275940000

U6qkOoxUhZX9dP0iGkzOavMrL6I3

cpmm-1

0

9.940378601479427

False

basic

public

1720067722229

William Baude

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joshua Zeitz argues that “the odds aren’t zero.” ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/joshuamzeitz/status/1808130997436797139?s=46&t=KXHuklQ7fpBGC3MqBbD7ug", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/joshuam...

BINARY

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WilliamBaude

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k30gtidiye

{"NO": 513.0442152040001, "YES": 1949.1497425857797}

0.20836872480368718

harris-to-pass-trump

971

Harris to pass Trump?

1730717940000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

9.64083587735513

False

basic

public

1720068400852

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point before the election on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electionbet...

BINARY

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jim

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{"NO": 865.3524209857353, "YES": 1155.5985466139757}

0.42819070569214096

will-trump-drop-below-50

605

Will Trump drop below 50%?

1730717940000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

9.573583161861968

False

basic

public

1720068512843

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump drops below 50% at any point before the election ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "class": "break...

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jim

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{"NO": 848.8981470838875, "YES": 1213.059505908229}

0.36703040361728423

will-tesla-tsla-reach-a-new-all-tim-f4udj0dpro

12529.607059812459

Will Tesla TSLA reach a new all time high by end of June 2025?

1751342340000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

6.314356278937562

False

basic

public

1720069075917

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using $407 as ATH", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be verified by multiple exchanges", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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strutheo

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{"NO": 81.64965809277263, "YES": 122.47448713915891}

0.4

will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-pres-a1yi2epu5d

156.06590953300304

Will Joe Biden drop out of the presidential race before 10:10 AM on 10/10?

1728569460000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1720069847410

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.09999999999999998, "month": -0.09999999999999998}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.7017958584558475, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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strutheo

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0.10465819165519284

will-trumps-vice-president-running-1m7rhv2imp

4102.811011332761

Will Trump's vice president running mate be Nikki Haley OR Ron DeSantis OR Vivek Ramaswamy OR RFK?

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hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.70880842008858

False

basic

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1720070178752

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

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strutheo

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1720133592031

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0.7251752169971684

will-jimmy-carter-outlive-bidens-re

3375

Will Jimmy Carter outlive Biden’s re-election campaign?

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UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1

cpmm-1

0

2.9896598394278517

False

plus

public

1720071290732

Jonathan Ray

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if jimmy is still alive on Nov 6. Otherwise resolves Yes if jimmy is still alive when Biden drops out. Otherwise resolves no.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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50

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JonathanRay

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eeeop1pzl8

define-agi

0

Define AGI

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none

0

1000000

False

public

1720071485383

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "People mean one of several different things when they say \"AGI\". Vote for your favoured definition!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/RokoMijic/status/1758850653751820705", "type...

POLL

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jim

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3h7gb21c4w

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.5

will-bitcoin-reach-7654321-before-t-u5oxue0x45

0

Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of Blue Monday?

1737349140000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.570333339714711

False

basic

public

1720071545297

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1000

strutheo

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0.13333333333333333

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0.5

1720071554978

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3bxcvjv4zt

if-biden-is-not-the-nominee-which-p-hrken8tn5x

50

If Biden is Not the Nominee, Which Party Will Receive More Votes?

1735718340000

Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1720073454837

vibhav

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Popular vote", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DM or comment with any questions", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thank you for participatin...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

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0

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vibhav

1720111908180

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c

1

DISABLED

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1720111905072

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4wcb85kkeg

{"NO": 137.10579281196803, "YES": 72.93637850673731}

0.652753644428537

will-the-us-undergo-a-major-politic

125

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

1799654340000

oXaYqgNVB3hXb1YutxarynBmqCY2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1720074505142

I123

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any dramatic change to the governing apparatus at the federal level: extending presidential terms, prosecution of political enemies in some drama...

BINARY

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100

I123

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1720134736929

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krkgsyflio

what-will-be-the-turnout-in-4-july

11024.041462973099

What will be the turnout in 4 July 2024 UK General election?

1720738740000

xvisOWzjFbhMhSDK9yw4oYkrd9p2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1720076563648

Numnumduck

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 187.77700733004764, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

4131.5345891094075

1000

Numnumduck

1720207745030

0

https://firebasestorage.…e4f-28ba8c9cf969

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21

DISABLED

[{"id": "r83zicpw8n", "prob": 0.008648920412874067, "text": "50-55%", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.066087754107265, "userId": "xvisOWzjFbhMhSDK9yw4oYkrd9p2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2185.3810390488015, "textFts": "'-55':2 '50':1", "contractId": "krkgsyflio", "createdTime": 1720076563648, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0069...

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0.25

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True

0

7fk8o90r9c

who-will-serve-the-most-aces-in-202

634.0812278127411

Who will serve the most aces in 2024 Wimbledon men’s singles competition?

1722725940000

xvisOWzjFbhMhSDK9yw4oYkrd9p2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1720076674620

Numnumduck

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 12.644167835500133, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

234.08122781274113

1200

Numnumduck

1720246211085

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https://firebasestorage.…e4f-28ba8c9cf969

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3

ANYONE

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0.13333333333333333

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1720246210138

True

0

1qlwls37nw

will-the-world-economy-grow-by-more-e6m5dvmnf2

3655.596225075995

Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X?

4103888340000

tWZ4iBjohhXxtcgMIqESQKcg8RE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1720078038784

Fela

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before X means than the last eligible year is X-1", "type": "text"}]}]}

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