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2l0jx5q7hr | inversion-resolutions-what-would-be | 5856.719592331648 | [Inverting Resolutions] What would be true in a world where Donald Trump wins the election? | 1730793540000 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.045941399284027 | False | plus | public | 1719972443085 | Pat Scott🩴 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thia is an experimental attempt to measure the counterfactual. Instead of conditional N/As, conditional options, scaled (dice roll) zoom ins, or some such, this market has what I call \"inverting\" resolutions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You're welcome to add more options, too!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump wins, business as usual", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "everything TRUE resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "everything FALSE resolves NO", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump doesn't win, it's inverted", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TRUE -> NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FALSE -> YES", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nitpicks:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything unknown when Trump wins/ doesn't win will be given a week for proof to surface, and otherwise will resolve as FALSE.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump drops out early for any reason, this resolves to the state of the world ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at that point", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " via the \"doesn't win\" lens.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "How to read this market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"If X happens, will Trump win the election?\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The baseline to compare is Trump's odds of winning.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If an option higher than his odds happens he's more likely to win. That is to say it's \"correlated\" to his chances.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And the reverse is also true. If an option lower than his odds happens he's less likely to win. It's \"anti-correlated.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Moreover, you can infer the effects of options that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "don't", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " happen.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The further away the value is from Trump's odds indicates a combination of how dramatic the effect would be + how (un)likely it is to happen (more extreme probabilities have higher ranges).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "How to bet on this market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll get into the math, but the basic question is, \"How might this affect his chances of winning?\" If it improves it, the simple answer is to bet YES, if it hurts it, the simple answer is to bet NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The math for optimal betting (I think):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "T", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "code"}]}, {"text": " = Your odds that Trump wins, 0 to 100%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "code"}]}, {"text": " = Your odds that the option's \"Event\" happens, 0 to 100%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "R", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "code"}]}, {"text": " = How correlated you think they are, -100 to 100% (from severely hurts him to majorly helps him)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Convert all to decimal", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Your target odds = ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "T + (0.5 - E) * R", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "code"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Convert back to percent)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aren't sure how strong the effect would be? 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wm9jcyc28h | how-likely-is-biden-to-win-the-2024-f47jbjw9ry | 0 | How likely is Biden to win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1720094340000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1719975796374 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720094340212 | jim | 1720025578722 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720025577409 | ["w60l87f8re"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
smbpyy8mbe | who-will-win-the-main-event-for-ufc | 87.25142931904043 | Who will win the main event for UFC 305? | 1723867140000 | v0bLdHENmlUks0UHiUSwG2ObxoB3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719977457764 | Felipe Peña | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya will take place on August 17, 2024, in Perth, Australia, for the UFC middleweight championship belt", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2463013966484975, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | FelipePena | 1720053161621 | 0 | 3 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ploimcifin", "prob": 0.6899999999999997, "text": "Israel Adesenya", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 74.59568438611079, "userId": "v0bLdHENmlUks0UHiUSwG2ObxoB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 33.51400312999184, "textFts": "'adesenya':2 'israel':1", "contractId": "smbpyy8mbe", "createdTime": 1719977457764, "probChanges": {"day": 0.18999999999999972, "week": 0.18999999999999972, "month": 0.18999999999999972}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.18999999999999972, "probChangeWeek": 0.18999999999999972, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.18999999999999972}, {"id": "91x4gdqkpt", "prob": 0.3100000000000003, "text": "Dricus du Plessis", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 33.51400312999184, "userId": "v0bLdHENmlUks0UHiUSwG2ObxoB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 74.59568438611076, "textFts": "'dricus':1 'du':2 'plessi':3", "contractId": "smbpyy8mbe", "createdTime": 1719977457764, "probChanges": {"day": -0.18999999999999972, "week": -0.18999999999999972, "month": -0.18999999999999972}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.18999999999999972, "probChangeWeek": -0.18999999999999972, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.18999999999999972}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717560039290 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720033988062 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999982 | 7n58fdpeax | {"NO": 7259.562242177667, "YES": 137.74935273508027} | 1 | will-a-second-sitting-democrat-cong | 7125.910372999188 | Will a second sitting Democrat Congressman or Senator publicly urge Biden to drop out before July 7th? | 1720058873268 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.868104751916837 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719977875657 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Tuesday July 2nd, Rep. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Lloyd Doggett", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/per/lloyd-doggett", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (D-", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Texas", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/texas", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call on President ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Joe Biden", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/per/joe-biden", "class": "underline decoration-blue-500/30 hover:decoration-blue-500", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/texas/rep-lloyd-doggett-becomes-first-democratic-lawmaker-to-urge-biden-to-withdraw", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/texas/rep-lloyd-doggett-becomes-first-democratic-lawmaker-to-urge-biden-to-withdraw", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8G31tZw0UT.png?alt=media&token=9bfb2a57-3877-455f-959b-355f7eab23c2", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will another sitting Democratic Congressman or Senator call for Biden to drop out or step down?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will resolve YES if", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "there is a well-sourced media report with direct quote (or the office sends a tweet) announcing a call for Biden to step down or resign from the 2024 presidential campaign", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OR if Biden announces he is stepping down, this will also resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "otherwise if nothing happens, the market will resolve NO", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve after Sunday July 6th, East Coast time. Only announcements made before Monday July 7th will count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 52.84782880762017, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720058873268 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1720058873268 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720038139859 | 1720058824445 | 0.98 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gpsmhc92uu | when-will-china-release-the-taiwane | 89.43194014643991 | When will China release the Taiwanese (and Indonesian) fishermen seized on July 2nd 2024? | 1751471940000 | 2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719985562105 | Josh Wilkes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Taiwan has called on China to release a fishing boat carrying five people that it said was seized by the Chinese coast guard in waters near Taiwanese outlying islands.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the date that the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "last", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " fishermen held is released. Will resolve to 'Not within one year' if any of them die in Chinese custody.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://hongkongfp.com/2024/07/03/china-urged-to-release-fishing-boat-carrying-5-crew-seized-off-taiwans-kinmen-islands/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://hongkongfp.com/2024/07/03/china-urged-to-release-fishing-boat-carrying-5-crew-seized-off-taiwans-kinmen-islands/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.5628337263806644, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | JoshuaWilkes | 1720000864516 | 0 | 4 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "bj7dqnlced", "prob": 0.04349426444549007, "text": "Within one day (end of July 3)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.331043358181873, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 117.237838450662, "textFts": "'3':7 'day':3 'end':4 'juli':6 'one':2 'within':1", "contractId": "gpsmhc92uu", "createdTime": 1719985562105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1477080167252018, "week": -0.1477080167252018, "month": -0.1477080167252018}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1477080167252018, "probChangeWeek": -0.1477080167252018, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.1477080167252018}, {"id": "6hax18nel3", "prob": 0.19623907227737172, "text": "Within one week (July 4 - July 9)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 12.352910772715411, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.59536262339676, "textFts": "'4':5 '9':7 'juli':4,6 'one':2 'week':3 'within':1", "contractId": "gpsmhc92uu", "createdTime": 1719985562105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09999999999999654, "week": -0.09999999999999654, "month": -0.09999999999999654}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.09999999999999654, "probChangeWeek": -0.09999999999999654, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.09999999999999654}, {"id": "axi112zte7", "prob": 0.3027867078956961, "text": "Within one month (July 10 - July 31)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 16.47500604474777, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 37.93625315234708, "textFts": "'10':5 '31':7 'juli':4,6 'month':3 'one':2 'within':1", "contractId": "gpsmhc92uu", "createdTime": 1719985562105, "probChanges": {"day": 0.06926469724206896, "week": 0.06926469724206896, "month": 0.06926469724206896}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.06926469724206896, "probChangeWeek": 0.06926469724206896, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.06926469724206896}, {"id": "t63qp9f0cd", "prob": 0.4139856909359524, "text": "Within one year (August 1 2024 - July 2 2025)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 21.01254050227757, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.74414254822046, "textFts": "'1':5 '2':8 '2024':6 '2025':9 'august':4 'juli':7 'one':2 'within':1 'year':3", "contractId": "gpsmhc92uu", "createdTime": 1719985562105, "probChanges": {"day": 0.3261513362083311, "week": 0.3261513362083311, "month": 0.3261513362083311}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.3261513362083311, "probChangeWeek": 0.3261513362083311, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": 0.3261513362083311}, {"id": "dnmasii7oj", "prob": 0.04349426444549007, "text": "Not within one year", "index": 4, "poolNo": 5.331043358181873, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 117.237838450662, "textFts": "'one':3 'within':2 'year':4", "contractId": "gpsmhc92uu", "createdTime": 1719985562105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1477080167252018, "week": -0.1477080167252018, "month": -0.1477080167252018}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.1477080167252018, "probChangeWeek": -0.1477080167252018, "totalLiquidity": 25.000000000000004, "probChangeMonth": -0.1477080167252018}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1662006482315 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720000860974 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | sxbnind3tb | {"NO": 911.7687042103998, "YES": 1096.7693839261674} | 0.4539464347705243 | will-another-us-president-hold-offi | 100 | Will another US President hold office for more than two full terms? | 4135813199999 | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571658363807156 | False | basic | public | 1719986900053 | JKS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if one person is the President of the United States for more than 2,922 days since the ratification of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the 22nd Amendment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on 21 March 1947.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves NO if the YES criteria are not met before two days after Inauguration Day in 2101 (22 January 2101).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record for most time in office as the President of the United States. Roosevelt held the office for three full terms and died in 1945, only a few months into his fourth term. He spent a total of 4,422 days in office, putting him in 1st place. As of market creation on 3 July 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "twelve presidents were tied for 2nd place", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_time_in_office&oldid=1224314508", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", each having served for exactly 2,922 days. Among others these include Thomas Jefferson, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, and Grover Cleveland who served two non-consecutive terms that were each 1,461 days long. George Washington is next in 14th place, having served two full terms, but only 2,865 days due to logistical problems with the first inauguration. Washington is the only president to have served two full terms, but not at least 2,922 days.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "After Roosevelt's record tenure, Congress passed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "in 1947. It was ratified by the minimum required 3/4 of the states, thus becoming law, in 1951. The 22nd Amendment states, \"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Generally, American citizens understand that the president may not hold office for more than eight years, but the wording of the 22nd Amendment technically allows for cases where a president may hold office for longer. Additionally, there are possible circumstances beyond the scope of the 22nd Amendment which could result in a YES resolution.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The close date should not be extended on this market, even in the event of an alteration or repeal of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "20th Amendment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twentieth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04605356522947568, "month": -0.04605356522947568} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.2306160738324863, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jks | 1719994496712 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680049506454 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719988496412 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This is the job they do in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " the job we call \"senior ML engineer\" at market resolution (so it's fine if all the ML engineers stay employed doing something slightly different). It's also ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "only", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " the technical portions - there's no requirement that the AI be able to make beautiful presentations or write long scientific reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some example tasks I expect it to be able to do:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Implement, test, and benchmark a paper given no input besides the paper.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Optimize an ML model (training or inference) for a specific set of computing resources", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Write, test, and debug distributed ML code", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Build, test, and profile training/inference infrastructure for a set of computing resources (e.g. decide which levels of ZeRO to use for a cluster and then implement them)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Basic ML ops type work (e.g. setup Kubernetes + Volcano)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Suggest + implement minor modifications to existing algorithms (e.g. \"I think this would learn better if we added a regularization term\")", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So in short: it should be able to do basically any technical task related to ML engineering, at a high but not world-class level. (In terms of actual resolution this roughly translates to: \"I expect it to be better than the engineers I know at random ML start ups, but worse than the people I know at OpenAI/Anthropic/DeepMind\")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The AI must actually be deployed - an LLM that could guide someone else through all of these (but lacks the tool integration to actually do it) doesn't count (this is mostly to simplify resolution).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will give myself one month (2024-07-20) to modify the resolution criteria based on feedback. 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0.5000000000000008 | 7mmc0u0kw1 | {"NO": 999.9999999999986, "YES": 1000.0000000000018} | 1 | daily-coinflip-wstpk4iker | 13018.662252294727 | Daily coinflip | 1720151940000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714743 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719992281300 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 171)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 87 heads vs 83 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " respond to multiple queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.5, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 196.74527256377905, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720209141343 | 1000 | Traveel | 1720151940000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 57 | 15 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1720188747873 | 1720204262832 | 0.5 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9uq2n3gwkn | {"NO": 94.1696582148513, "YES": 106.19131671036415} | 0.4700000000000002 | will-this-d20-roll-be-even | 46.9098158249712 | Will this d20 roll be even? | 1720187940000 | P9zNCU4szGRHC9zB4OJCAx07nGh1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719993003409 | azzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will roll the dice sometime the day the question closes and resolve right when i roll it(in order to be fair i will not invest in this market). resolves yes if even and resolves no if odd.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.029999999999999805, "week": -0.029999999999999805, "month": -0.029999999999999805} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2940447401764001, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 46.9098158249712 | 100 | megacoolness | 1720185459516 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL10IWHJGvOpefnMfWpjdnJ6lMSu0mkg9JowjaxCCneZQE=s96-c | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1711956344873 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720185456327 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999983 | z0xj9vne49 | {"NO": 45.43539244192399, "YES": 220.092739658455} | 0.17111329064276995 | will-tsla-reach-550-before-8pm-est | 55820.69334821105 | Will TSLA reach >$ 550 before 8pm EST on 8/8/25? | 1754654400000 | HLgyulVrkGNPH4K7WHM1Tz25lR12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.951532901328024 | False | play | public | 1719993649980 | Matt F | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarification:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$550 ($550.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8/25 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For After Market trading information: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/afterhourstrading.asp#:~:text=After-hours%20trading%20is%20securities%20trading%20that%20starts%20at,hours%20is%20conducted%20through%20electronic%20communication%20networks%20%28ECNs%29.", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "investopedia.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://investopedia.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/afterhourstrading.asp#:~:text=After-hours%20trading%20is%20securities%20trading%20that%20starts%20at,hours%20is%20conducted%20through%20electronic%20communication%20networks%20%28ECNs%29.", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.39017232970740146, "week": -0.3288867093572301, "month": -0.3288867093572301} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 693.4513290384668, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 582.758188421093 | 100 | MattF | 1720218654197 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYf96igKYDAeeCDmrp2xMBcvOR_WlVaHNpyCQbonQ=s96-c | 30 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1684457599353 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720218650965 | 1720007632152 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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w8qwrmb7uy | does-2-2-4 | 0 | Does 2 + 2 = 4 ? | F2xEViFCNLb89hg5YX80hpG69ft2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1720015521059 | Damian Johnson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poll will resolve after the following conditions are all met:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minimum 100 votes", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Single response receives >95% of vote", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "p.s. I'm in the early stages of exploring ways to use Manifold as a fact-checking tool. While predictions about the future are fun and (to some extent) valuable, I believe there is a bigger problem that Manifold can help solve: the lack of trust in our news and information sources about what has ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "already", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " happened. So...thanks for voting and helping with this project.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | DamianJohnson8e3f | 1720033433905 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKSxymaFeUN26AK1n9e7Wy0Xo05-T4p1R5Cv8Sz8sNe0whn_Q=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715936707438 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gnelptbjru | will-i-promote-my-new-market-by-mak | 0 | Will I promote my new market by making it "Plus tier" or by "boosting" it? | 1720681140000 | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720019789244 | Caleb Biddulph | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the next week, I want to create a smaller version of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this challenge market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/will-there-be-a-manifold-bot-that-m?r=Q0RCaWRkdWxwaA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that runs in September. I want to spend around $10 to promote it. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I see there's a new system for market \"tiers,\" but I'm not sure what the benefit is other than subsidies. To what extent does a higher-ranked market actually show up to traders? It looks like the old system of \"ads\" where users get mana for clicking on an ad isn't used for this, but are high-tier markets ranked higher on the home page?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I boost my new market with some amount of ads but don't subsidize it up to \"Plus\" tier, this market resolves to \"Boosting.\" If I subsidize it to \"Plus\" tier with no ads, it resolves \"Plus tier.\" If anything else happens, it will resolve N/A, but I will do my very best not to make that happen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The main purpose of the market is for someone to give me an explanation in the comments of what I should do.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | CDBiddulph | 1720053161621 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ecwmwtu9dt", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Plus tier", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50, "userId": "OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'plus':1 'tier':2", "contractId": "gnelptbjru", "createdTime": 1720019789244, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "hbr6n7539s", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Boosting", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 50, "userId": "OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50, "textFts": "'boost':1", "contractId": "gnelptbjru", "createdTime": 1720019789244, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700327636837 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720019918002 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xpkwtcnr9g | which-will-exit-first-biden-or-baby | 4676.33452929217 | Which will exit first: Biden or Baby When? | 1722495540000 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720020125059 | stefanie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "by all speculation, the time seems to be drawing near for Joe Biden to announce his exit from the 2024 US Presidential race", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "meanwhile, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1", "label": "rachel"}}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "label": "Austin"}}, {"text": " are expecting their first baby - Baby When - who is already 2 days behind schedule in making her debut into the world", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "which will exit first: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🍦 Biden from the race", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "🍼 Baby When from the womb", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "see Austin's birthday prediction market (and more related context) here:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "suqx2ukd3n", "label": "/Austin/on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born-eslgkpbzzu"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "and a Biden nom market with very regular updates:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM", "label": "/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.257522331764168, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 1403 | 1000 | shankypanky | 1720226616137 | 0 | 19 | 5 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0wfvwpgx1c", "prob": 0.04043534734401982, "text": "🍦", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 102.63925063496336, "userId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2435.715366717994, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xpkwtcnr9g", "createdTime": 1720020125059, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05584406920124447, "week": -0.45916406389115266, "month": -0.45916406389115266}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.05584406920124447, "probChangeWeek": -0.45916406389115266, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.45916406389115266}, {"id": "w2xo0g5ksn", "prob": 0.9595646526559801, "text": "🍼", "color": "#9c27b0", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2435.7153667179923, "userId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 102.6392506349635, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xpkwtcnr9g", "createdTime": 1720020125059, "probChanges": {"day": 0.05584406920124452, "week": 0.4591640638911527, "month": 0.4591640638911527}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.05584406920124452, "probChangeWeek": 0.4591640638911527, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.4591640638911527}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698976802308 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720226613024 | 1720191525151 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | jzxs9209yu | {"NO": 44.91581501444837, "YES": 222.6387297388065} | 0.16787535811014087 | will-china-unify-with-taiwan-by-the | 135 | Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030? | 1735707540000 | G8u0SvKGiqey6fHNCpHGbvRl78J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720020744974 | FB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to yes if the PRC controls the island on Dec 31st, 2030.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.22442635282840173, "week": -0.33212464188985913, "month": -0.33212464188985913} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.914687022653295, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 100 | huge_uranium | 1720245139519 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhuge_uranium%2FvyJMoQzQq1._V1_?alt=media&token=e2ef2a29-75c7-4469-aeed-2db65edf2cda | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690493739295 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720245136436 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47876599809081016 | g05fueocwk | {"NO": 9924.488569506178, "YES": 10080.751946792623} | 0.4748687736163821 | will-there-be-50-states-in-the-unio | 210 | Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036? | 1735707540000 | G8u0SvKGiqey6fHNCpHGbvRl78J3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7314363778468214 | False | plus | public | 1720021403040 | FB | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to yes if the United States of America still exists and num of states == 50.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.0025363397750028382, "week": -0.02513122638361792, "month": -0.02513122638361792} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.997735420523429, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 10000 | huge_uranium | 1720190316998 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhuge_uranium%2FvyJMoQzQq1._V1_?alt=media&token=e2ef2a29-75c7-4469-aeed-2db65edf2cda | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690493739295 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720182359020 | 1720190315890 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | h8pta1u80f | {"NO": 1753.9282579006185, "YES": 570.1487478153526} | 0.754677342268309 | will-there-be-a-second-presidential | 1160 | Will there be a second presidential debate in the 2024 US election? | 1730966340000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.620025070988518 | False | basic | public | 1720021405598 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if there are at least two live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) featuring at least one major party candidate (whoever they may be) before the end of 5 Nov 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude 1980, which featured two debates but one which lacked both main party candidates). For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2020", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates#Debate_list", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": 2", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2016", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_debates#Debate_list", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": 3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2012", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_debates#Debate_schedule", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": 3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2008", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_debates#Debate_schedule", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": 3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2004", "type": 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0.4999999999999997 | l3j3mlvkzp | {"NO": 55.873235195597104, "YES": 178.97657017698558} | 0.23791050244625803 | will-kamala-harris-be-president-of-oegsqc0i7k | 306 | Will Kamala Harris be President of the United States on election day, 2024? | 1731072540000 | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720021996302 | Tripping | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If at any point on November 5th, 2024, in any US timezone, Kamala Harris is the President of the United States of America, this market will resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise this market will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.262089497553742, "month": -0.262089497553742} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.853827551984108, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Tripping | 1720071180716 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669033757222 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720071177550 | 1720024465423 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5503378833718297 | d432iklgys | {"NO": 5670.366768668957, "YES": 15446.911428202455} | 0.31000000000000016 | will-joe-biden-endorse-kamala-harri | 28541.871970938944 | Will Joe Biden endorse Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party Presidential Nomination before the end of July? | 1722495540000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2565440232006897 | False | plus | public | 1720022525306 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris to be the nominee instead of himself before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time. Otherwise resolves NO on August 1st. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0527744862714431, "week": -0.18999999999999984, "month": -0.18999999999999984} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 790.7840948950987, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 5478.920860003532 | 10000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1720244275425 | 0 | 123 | 31 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720244272377 | 1720075928930 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4pco0qh73x | {"NO": 837.6420186041231, "YES": 1193.8274081169382} | 0.4123330666886471 | will-hurricane-beryl-cause-damage-a | 296.69553786084214 | Will Hurricane Beryl cause damage at SpaceX Starbase that delays Flight 5? | 1722668340000 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575212763355662 | False | basic | public | 1720022815962 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.08766693331135289, "month": -0.08766693331135289} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.477054022219843, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ahalekelly | 1720142203880 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1651185961528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720142200815 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | bcuoqt9anm | {"NO": 117.9481775481765, "YES": 84.78299714224443} | 0.5817959557936185 | will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-on-oct-2 | 353.1908668456985 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive up until Oct 2 2025, 12:01 am EST, one day after his 101st birthday? | 1759431540000 | iVMiHF4vreMgY6oVwT8OjQuqKtt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720023202965 | PoliticalEconomyPK | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve Yes on Oct 2nd 2025, 12:01 am EST, if Jimmy Carter is still alive. If he dies before this date and time, it will resolve No.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0570192245435962, "week": 0.08179595579361854, "month": 0.08179595579361854} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.887791005897268, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 100 | PoliticalEconomyPK | 1720194552750 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704713497678 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720194549496 | 1720176159520 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2213631497230908 | 934ov6uj9o | {"NO": 7377.940869928242, "YES": 25868.77378759347} | 0.07500162436707121 | will-joe-biden-announce-that-he-is | 145508.52007780285 | Will Joe Biden announce that he is both dropping out and resigning from the presidency before the end of July? | 1722495540000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.70345642225314 | False | plus | public | 1720024333745 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden announces both that he is no longer running for re-election and that he will be resigning and not completing his current term. These announcements before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time, but he does not have to have formally resigned and be out of office before the end of July. An announcement of his intention to do so is sufficient to resolve this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market resolves NO on August 1st. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.004998375632928986, "week": -0.4249983756329288, "month": -0.4249983756329288} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1283.9787296347504, "platformFee": 283.9787296347504, "liquidityFee": 0} | 18912.873197971127 | 10000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1720240458695 | 0 | 229 | 51 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720240455610 | 1720162028676 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | odr0hqqhm | {"NO": 32.09328956969665, "YES": 311.5916172532923} | 0.09337997954686428 | will-iran-attack-israel-in-the-mont | 215 | Will Iran attack Israel in the month of July? | 1722657540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720024600807 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.4066200204531357, "month": -0.4066200204531357} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.408382746707635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1720120121102 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720120117508 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kdwkvr12hg | will-manifold-add-1-hour-or-1-minut | 2193.782169120334 | Will manifold add 1 hour or 1 minute timeframes to the individual market price plot selection by end of July? | 1722700740000 | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720024715417 | Ansel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFCG9F9BPbn.jpeg?alt=media&token=c61e1451-a3c8-4ee6-81c9-16d0f3916ce3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We want two more options. Life comes at you fast. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.72994671540595, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ansel | 1720076517123 | 0 | 21 | 21 | DISABLED | [{"id": "t1fa8c6tyd", "prob": 0.3505363663132674, "text": "1 hour only", "index": 0, "poolNo": 259.74316472317076, "userId": "GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 481.24461767154776, "textFts": "'1':1 'hour':2", "contractId": "kdwkvr12hg", "createdTime": 1720024715417, "probChanges": {"day": 0.03141229309274962, "week": 0.03141229309274962, "month": 0.03141229309274962}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.03141229309274962, "probChangeWeek": 0.03141229309274962, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.03141229309274962}, {"id": "vg42jk2oth", "prob": 0.0394636336867327, "text": "1 hour and 1 minute", "index": 1, "poolNo": 71.66327245933802, "userId": "GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1744.2686568761637, "textFts": "'1':1,4 'hour':2 'minut':5", "contractId": "kdwkvr12hg", "createdTime": 1720024715417, "probChanges": {"day": -0.29290040997055367, "week": -0.29290040997055367, "month": -0.29290040997055367}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.29290040997055367, "probChangeWeek": -0.29290040997055367, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.29290040997055367}, {"id": "mqxp006dqb", "prob": 0.61, "text": "Neither", "index": 2, "poolNo": 442.168316948219, "userId": "GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 282.6977764095171, "textFts": "'neither':1", "contractId": "kdwkvr12hg", "createdTime": 1720024715417, "probChanges": {"day": 0.2614881168778042, "week": 0.2614881168778042, "month": 0.2614881168778042}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.2614881168778042, "probChangeWeek": 0.2614881168778042, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.2614881168778042}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661077246623 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720076514077 | 1720031091839 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.52660337272629 | fwio4yl6ps | {"NO": 806.6668130857003, "YES": 1212.4664161103856} | 0.4253161880245044 | will-israeli-troops-enter-the-count | 1080 | Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of August? | 1725076740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.605319640746103 | False | basic | public | 1720024793291 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.19906565615284116, "week": -0.07468381197549562, "month": -0.07468381197549562} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.738191723350546, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 400 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720217012309 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720217009147 | 1720046030126 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ip3u99ifl0 | on-which-day-in-july-2024-will-bide | 253.23748462238362 | On which day in July 2024 will Biden drop out of the 2024 race? | 1722495660000 | nG0oU2bQMucPJPGSbTIFxsaCD1b2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720024839609 | Charlie Graham | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "will be determined by which day (EDT) Biden announces he is not running in 2024. the day will also be counted if he resigns or announces he is stepping away from the presidency. If he does not drop out before July 31, the. “He will not drop out in July” choice wins. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.780961810654217, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 65 | 290 | CharlieGraham | 1720229894053 | 0 | 6 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "jlh1rzunzb", "prob": 0.010256109160234018, "text": "July 4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.789451976645985, "userId": "nG0oU2bQMucPJPGSbTIFxsaCD1b2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 269.19010021664764, "textFts": "'4':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "ip3u99ifl0", "createdTime": 1720024839609, "probChanges": {"day": -0.001829450460529146, "week": -0.02287260804153399, "month": -0.02287260804153399}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.001829450460529146, "probChangeWeek": -0.02287260804153399, "totalLiquidity": 27.402424293168977, "probChangeMonth": -0.02287260804153399}, {"id": "c33woiqc1j", "prob": 0.028642927868418048, "text": "July 5", "index": 1, "poolNo": 4.705526656167773, "userId": "nG0oU2bQMucPJPGSbTIFxsaCD1b2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 159.57679384487744, "textFts": 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"prob": 0.031271896154840835, "text": "July 7", "index": 3, "poolNo": 4.9234002634616125, "userId": "nG0oU2bQMucPJPGSbTIFxsaCD1b2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 152.51509464211443, "textFts": "'7':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "ip3u99ifl0", "createdTime": 1720024839609, "probChanges": {"day": 0.025270818350068735, "week": 0.00422766076906389, "month": 0.00422766076906389}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.025270818350068735, "probChangeWeek": 0.00422766076906389, "totalLiquidity": 27.402424293168977, "probChangeMonth": 0.00422766076906389}, {"id": "lvukpsvzrd", "prob": 0.02285915882660426, "text": "July 8", "index": 4, "poolNo": 4.191220660493505, "userId": "nG0oU2bQMucPJPGSbTIFxsaCD1b2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 179.1585120346405, "textFts": "'8':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "ip3u99ifl0", "createdTime": 1720024839609, "probChanges": {"day": 0.014033904712678767, "week": -0.007009252868326078, "month": -0.007009252868326078}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": 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amussjh2s6 | democratic-presidential-nominee-add | 3510.250134187568 | Democratic presidential nominee? 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0.5000000000000002 | xtw3w6n9q9 | {"NO": 633.5398177289941, "YES": 1578.432755157569} | 0.2864139571596236 | will-evidence-of-an-extraterrestria | 751 | Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100? | 4134009540000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.65540344671733 | False | basic | public | 1720033265083 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, an \"extraterrestrial civilization\" is defined as any organized society or community originating from outside Earth that displays one or more of the following characteristics:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Technological Artifacts:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Objects or signals clearly created by non-human intelligence, such as advanced machinery, spacecraft, or artificial structures.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Communication Signals:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Radio, laser, or other forms of communication that unmistakably originate from an intelligent source.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biological Evidence:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Life forms or biological signatures that demonstrate complex, organized life processes indicative of a developed society.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Astrosocial Phenomena:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Observable large-scale alterations or structures within a star system or galaxy that suggest the presence of an advanced society, such as Dyson spheres or large space habitats.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if any of the following occur by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2100:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Peer-Reviewed Publication:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " A credible and peer-reviewed scientific paper is published in a recognized journal confirming the discovery of evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization as defined above.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Official Announcement:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " A major international space agency (e.g., NASA, ESA, CNSA) or an equivalent reputable scientific organization officially announces the verified discovery of an extraterrestrial civilization.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "International Consensus:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " A consensus among the international scientific community, reflected through endorsements by at least three prominent scientific organizations, acknowledging the discovery of evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Additional Notes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reevaluation Period:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If initial claims are disputed or disproven within 12 months of the announcement, the market resolution will be reassessed based on the latest available evidence.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exclusion Clause:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Discoveries of microbial life or non-sentient extraterrestrial organisms will not qualify for resolution. The evidence must clearly indicate the presence of a civilization as defined above.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The criteria for technological artifacts, communication signals, biological evidence, or astrosocial phenomena must be confirmed through rigorous scientific methods and withstand scrutiny from the global scientific community.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Market Example", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Suppose a new set of signals is detected in 2080, initially thought to be of extraterrestrial origin. 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0.5 | vui8a5rtjd | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-virginia-tech-win-more-than-7 | 0 | Will Virginia Tech win more than 7 regular season football games in the 2024 season? | 1733029140000 | ApDrbVOoFWXAk9oVnwPrJIc6imF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720036266036 | William B. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Would resolve yes if the Virginia Tech football team wins its 8th game of the regular season. Would resolve no if it becomes mathematically impossible for Virginia Tech to win at least 8 games in the regular season. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market \"regular season\" will not include any conference championship, bowl, or College Football Playoff games. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In addition, even if a game(s) are canceled for any reason (weather, etc.) it will only resolve yes if Virginia Tech wins 8 or more regular season games. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | WilliamB | 1720036266228 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIGWMkaZ9mnWI06DaOER2PKXn32u1_fka7xXK5mGJIep-gUwfUk=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719929092842 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | dt9gutv4t3 | {"NO": 945.6818864762969, "YES": 1057.4380394723387} | 0.4721044777328759 | will-there-be-an-upset-in-the-2024 | 4884.9594378018855 | Will There Be an Upset in the 2024 Euro Quarterfinals? | 1720385940000 | oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570817621472706 | False | basic | public | 1720036562366 | David Lin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predict whether there will be an upset in any of the four quarterfinal matches of the 2024 Euro Championship. An upset is defined as a lower-seeded or less-favored team proceeding to the semi-finals at the expense of a higher-seeded or more-favored opponent. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matchups + current odds per oddschecker.com", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsQeq70WYPP.png?alt=media&token=4cd1262b-3a8f-4780-88c5-c1b50365ac10", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any of Germany, Portugal, Switzerland or Turkey proceed to the semi-finals, this market will resolve YES, and resolve NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.31848596097939397, "week": -0.027895522267124107, "month": -0.027895522267124107} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 124.0571621413262, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 2448.427542555916 | 1000 | dlin007 | 1720247921898 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698079516511 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720247918719 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4qp471u7qu | {"NO": 1094.612936648724, "YES": 913.5649383622385} | 0.5450776797562062 | will-nadu-winged-wisdom-be-banned-i-6prtu5t217 | 200 | Will Nadu, Winged Wisdom be banned in Brawl by October? | 1727848740000 | hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571602480023387 | False | basic | public | 1720036573010 | Ari Zerner | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.045077679756206246, "month": 0.045077679756206246} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.617180564673858, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AriZerner | 1720058781801 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699161469267 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720058778700 | 1720058620928 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wtut21zl2e | on-what-date-will-joe-biden-drop-ou | 9449.849233915978 | On what date will Joe Biden drop out of the as a candidate in the US presidential election? | 1720652340000 | 0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720037274413 | Gordan Knott | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.92104534807315, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 7392.771528357319 | 1100 | GordanKnott | 1720230932367 | 0 | 22 | 11 | ANYONE | [{"id": "pc0tu281i6", "prob": 0.013059079340413922, "text": "July 4", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.125885793756744, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2805.791660381439, "textFts": "'4':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "wtut21zl2e", "createdTime": 1720037274413, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0154185878071046, "week": -0.23651792794112567, "month": -0.23651792794112567}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.0154185878071046, "probChangeWeek": -0.23651792794112567, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.23651792794112567}, {"id": "yvmwj0mgkc", "prob": 0.03351872684374018, "text": "July 5", "index": 1, "poolNo": 65.82632128201979, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1898.040671306729, "textFts": "'5':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "wtut21zl2e", "createdTime": 1720037274413, "probChanges": {"day": -0.07269221356542108, "week": -0.21492792302518934, "month": -0.21492792302518934}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.07269221356542108, "probChangeWeek": -0.21492792302518934, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.21492792302518934}, {"id": "jq51dr52u7", "prob": 0.03370647178206497, "text": "July 7", "index": 2, "poolNo": 64.03951325968694, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1835.8779172487775, "textFts": "'7':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "wtut21zl2e", "createdTime": 1720037274413, "probChanges": {"day": -0.039872986639510354, "week": -0.21467742919389118, "month": -0.21467742919389118}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.039872986639510354, "probChangeWeek": -0.21467742919389118, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.21467742919389118}, {"id": "rsi1fgzum6", "prob": 0.11395174780988174, "text": "July 12", "index": 3, "poolNo": 36.14985331500094, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 281.0883989258837, "textFts": "'12':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "wtut21zl2e", "createdTime": 1720175242616, "probChanges": {"day": -0.35158146846432353, "week": -0.35158146846432353, "month": -0.35158146846432353}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.35158146846432353, "probChangeWeek": -0.35158146846432353, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.35158146846432353}, {"id": "qi7prb583s", "prob": 0.8057639742238992, "text": "Other", "index": 4, "poolNo": 587.9608489609341, "userId": "0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 141.73279306029164, "textFts": "", "contractId": "wtut21zl2e", "createdTime": 1720037274413, "probChanges": {"day": -0.02043474352364061, "week": 0.5177047486245296, "month": 0.5177047486245296}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.02043474352364061, "probChangeWeek": 0.5177047486245296, "totalLiquidity": 146.81678215985846, "probChangeMonth": 0.5177047486245296}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698871173640 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720230929272 | 1720175651200 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6jrqmj2nm4 | how-if-at-all-will-kamala-harris-be | 1231.847568323304 | How, if at all, will Kamala Harris become president? | 1863669540000 | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720037334707 | Zane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.55472557761835, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 130 | 1000 | ZaneMiller | 1720226521975 | 0 | 12 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "se9hzw8jpx", "prob": 0.08450991947686616, "text": "She will become president during the 2021-2025 term.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 75.95686491255522, "userId": "ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 822.8354352427862, "textFts": "'-2025':8 '2021':7 'becom':3 'presid':4 'term':9", "contractId": "6jrqmj2nm4", "createdTime": 1720037334707, "probChanges": {"day": -0.027384597340093672, "week": -0.11549008052313385, "month": -0.11549008052313385}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.027384597340093672, "probChangeWeek": -0.11549008052313385, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.11549008052313385}, {"id": "2yiqajx6ld", "prob": 0.1659637656594649, "text": "She will be elected as president in the 2024 election.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 111.52036685701493, "userId": "ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 560.4357460564482, "textFts": "'2024':9 'elect':4,10 'presid':6", "contractId": "6jrqmj2nm4", "createdTime": 1720037334707, "probChanges": {"day": 0.040799509485196284, "week": -0.0340362343405351, "month": -0.0340362343405351}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.040799509485196284, "probChangeWeek": -0.0340362343405351, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.0340362343405351}, {"id": "gx0tcr8j9p", "prob": 0.10908523058171622, "text": "She will become president during the 2025-2029 term.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 87.47922086514653, "userId": "ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 714.4553801679004, "textFts": "'-2029':8 '2025':7 'becom':3 'presid':4 'term':9", "contractId": "6jrqmj2nm4", "createdTime": 1720037334707, "probChanges": {"day": -0.020580256342869127, "week": -0.09091476941828379, "month": -0.09091476941828379}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.020580256342869127, "probChangeWeek": -0.09091476941828379, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.09091476941828379}, {"id": "6kb9ofczvo", "prob": 0.06617471649588813, "text": "She will be elected as president in the 2028 election.", "index": 3, "poolNo": 66.55079367630202, "userId": "ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 939.1323010210098, "textFts": "'2028':9 'elect':4,10 'presid':6", "contractId": "6jrqmj2nm4", "createdTime": 1720037334707, "probChanges": {"day": -0.010303855061605527, "week": -0.13382528350411188, "month": -0.13382528350411188}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.010303855061605527, "probChangeWeek": -0.13382528350411188, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.13382528350411188}, {"id": "nnd2uzui9h", "prob": 0.5742663677860645, "text": "She will not become president at all (as of the 2029 inauguration.)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 290.35393745354986, "userId": "ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 215.25452882828094, "textFts": "'2029':11 'becom':4 'inaugur':12 'presid':5", "contractId": "6jrqmj2nm4", "createdTime": 1720037334707, "probChanges": {"day": 0.01746919925937196, "week": 0.37426636778606454, "month": 0.37426636778606454}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.01746919925937196, "probChangeWeek": 0.37426636778606454, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.37426636778606454}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669859805273 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720226518876 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | zl5dih1n0q | {"NO": 347.43200943053967, "YES": 2878.2609916658353} | 0.10770771096705486 | will-evidence-of-an-extraterrestria-cvu0wrmx58 | 1962.3335932033372 | Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? | 2556172740000 | WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.734949656918229 | False | basic | public | 1720037550890 | Bruno Clawfeld | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, an \"extraterrestrial civilization\" is defined as any organized society or community originating from outside Earth that displays one or more of the following characteristics:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Technological Artifacts:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Objects or signals clearly created by non-human intelligence, such as advanced machinery, spacecraft, or artificial structures.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Communication Signals:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Radio, laser, or other forms of communication that unmistakably originate from an intelligent source.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biological Evidence:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Life forms or biological signatures that demonstrate complex, organized life processes indicative of a developed society.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Astrosocial Phenomena:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Observable large-scale alterations or structures within a star system or galaxy that suggest the presence of an advanced society, such as Dyson spheres or large space habitats.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if any of the following occur by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2050:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Peer-Reviewed Publication:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " A credible and peer-reviewed scientific paper is published in a recognized journal confirming the discovery of evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization as defined above.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Official Announcement:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " A major international space agency (e.g., NASA, ESA, CNSA) or an equivalent reputable scientific organization officially announces the verified discovery of an extraterrestrial civilization.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "International Consensus:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " A consensus among the international scientific community, reflected through endorsements by at least three prominent scientific organizations, acknowledging the discovery of evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Additional Notes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reevaluation Period:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If initial claims are disputed or disproven within 12 months of the announcement, the market resolution will be reassessed based on the latest available evidence.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exclusion Clause:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Discoveries of microbial life or non-sentient extraterrestrial organisms will not qualify for resolution. The evidence must clearly indicate the presence of a civilization as defined above.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The criteria for technological artifacts, communication signals, biological evidence, or astrosocial phenomena must be confirmed through rigorous scientific methods and withstand scrutiny from the global scientific community.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Market Example", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Suppose a new set of signals is detected in 2080, initially thought to be of extraterrestrial origin. If these signals are later confirmed through multiple peer-reviewed studies and official announcements by major space agencies to be from an extraterrestrial civilization, the market will resolve to \"YES.\" Conversely, if the signals are debunked or found to be from a natural source within the 12-month reevaluation period, the market will resolve to \"NO.\"", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.3922922890329451, "month": -0.3922922890329451} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 32.70871344919876, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BrunoClawfeld | 1720114058363 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3 | 13 | 13 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690746063357 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720114055253 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1817188487029113 | r0wg9lilxb | {"NO": 910.5182108912693, "YES": 1315.3409443365083} | 0.13324318126643148 | will-biden-be-up-to-35-in-the-comin | 320 | Will Biden be up to 35% in the coming weeks? | 1721275140000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.167327526356019 | False | basic | public | 1720037835788 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At or over 35 for 3 consecutive days or more on election market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.3667568187335685, "month": -0.3667568187335685} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.659055663491941, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Predictor | 1720138281572 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644461353687 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720138278497 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7ogm78ukcz | how-will-bidens-first-postdebate-in | 92356.06607562871 | How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status? | 1720681140000 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.733335608285405 | False | plus | public | 1720037937984 | jackson polack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the consensus of three moderators (me and Joshua and Semiotic), based on the interview itself and media reactions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An example of a 'perform very well' performance would be the Biden vs Ryan VP 2012 debate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria open to clarification/mild adjustements in the first few hours after market creation if suggestions are made!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't trade", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1052.830612169373, "platformFee": 42.82605837215374, "liquidityFee": 0} | 60608.56654262795 | 10000 | jacksonpolack | 1720246609394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 95 | 39 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6oerv4jtgv", "prob": 0.01806969496817816, "text": "He'll be sharp and perform very well, comparable to his best appearances in the past ~decade", "index": 0, "poolNo": 234.33989439848528, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12734.329184474855, "textFts": "'appear':13 'best':12 'compar':9 'decad':17 'll':2 'past':16 'perform':6 'sharp':4 'well':8", "contractId": "7ogm78ukcz", "createdTime": 1720037937984, "probChanges": {"day": -0.03276598207222284, "week": -0.17756230933000572, "month": -0.17756230933000572}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.03276598207222284, "probChangeWeek": -0.17756230933000572, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.17756230933000572}, {"id": "fk8k0b0c4y", "prob": 0.23584871632934098, "text": "He'll respond reasonably to the questions, with only some significant mistakes.", "index": 1, "poolNo": 1539.872104453571, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4989.195038329947, "textFts": "'ll':2 'mistak':12 'question':7 'reason':4 'respond':3 'signific':11", "contractId": "7ogm78ukcz", "createdTime": 1720037937984, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12454625414947301, "week": 0.12361444681621803, "month": 0.12361444681621803}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.12454625414947301, "probChangeWeek": 0.12361444681621803, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.12361444681621803}, {"id": "8kbozgipm7", "prob": 0.72, "text": "He'll make many mistakes, giving a poor impression, but still perform somewhat better than the debate.", "index": 2, "poolNo": 5082.107882924676, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1976.3752878040414, "textFts": "'better':14 'debat':17 'give':6 'impress':9 'll':2 'make':3 'mani':4 'mistak':5 'perform':12 'poor':8 'somewhat':13 'still':11", "contractId": "7ogm78ukcz", "createdTime": 1720037937984, "probChanges": {"day": 0.2570801750917794, "week": 0.4214473161177676, "month": 0.4214473161177676}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.2570801750917794, "probChangeWeek": 0.4214473161177676, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": 0.4214473161177676}, {"id": "14h3twjttc", "prob": 0.02425602493172678, "text": "Very bad, at or below recent debate performance", "index": 3, "poolNo": 297.0168395008832, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 11948.05795477781, "textFts": "'bad':2 'debat':7 'perform':8 'recent':6", "contractId": "7ogm78ukcz", "createdTime": 1720037937984, "probChanges": {"day": -0.047097320102418835, "week": -0.1695262712143272, "month": -0.1695262712143272}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.047097320102418835, "probChangeWeek": -0.1695262712143272, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.1695262712143272}, {"id": "82qosbpi3u", "prob": 0.00182556377075416, "text": "Interview doesn't happen", "index": 4, "poolNo": 48.614644258662, "userId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26581.320194215245, "textFts": "'doesn':2 'happen':4 'interview':1", "contractId": "7ogm78ukcz", "createdTime": 1720037937984, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05267061876766478, "week": -0.19797318238965278, "month": -0.19797318238965278}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.05267061876766478, "probChangeWeek": -0.19797318238965278, "totalLiquidity": 250.00000000000003, "probChangeMonth": -0.19797318238965278}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1670234252125 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720246606211 | 1720240347593 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
c78lo9vjaa | will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl | 892.4754957224068 | Will anyone pay me to solve a problem for them? | 1751608740000 | hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720038605524 | Ari Zerner | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/AriZerner/status/1808596658864992348", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/AriZerner/status/1808596658864992348", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I intend to resolve options to NO within a week if they become impossible (e.g. first option resolves to NO soon after the first bounty is offered)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " never mind, that's not actually possible, market will only resolve early if I get paid to solve a problem.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First option is out: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl#068tyalxgq85", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl#068tyalxgq85", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To clarify: this market is about real money, not Manifold bounties, see linked tweet", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.578272454818986, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 843.101005273311 | 1000 | AriZerner | 1720243725490 | 0 | 3 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "yct0gwrwzv", "prob": 0.12521834064715867, "text": "No one offers a bounty by market close", "index": 0, "poolNo": 109.21782274319678, "userId": "hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 763.0012322189809, "textFts": "'bounti':5 'close':8 'market':7 'offer':3 'one':2", "contractId": "c78lo9vjaa", "createdTime": 1720038605524, "probChanges": {"day": -0.14085012141130146, "week": -0.12478165935284133, "month": -0.12478165935284133}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.14085012141130146, "probChangeWeek": -0.12478165935284133, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": -0.12478165935284133}, {"id": "nqm20pffes", "prob": 0.2915938864509476, "text": "One or more bounties offered but I don't accept any", "index": 1, "poolNo": 185.2070157110388, "userId": "hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 449.9469580750153, "textFts": "'accept':10 'bounti':4 'offer':5 'one':1", "contractId": "c78lo9vjaa", "createdTime": 1720038605524, "probChanges": {"day": 0.04695004047043422, "week": 0.04159388645094758, "month": 0.04159388645094758}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.04695004047043422, "probChangeWeek": 0.04159388645094758, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.04159388645094758}, {"id": "rbw5ib6xwj", "prob": 0.29159388645094686, "text": "I accept one or more bounties but don't successfully get paid", "index": 2, "poolNo": 185.2070157110384, "userId": "hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 449.9469580750159, "textFts": "'accept':2 'bounti':6 'get':11 'one':3 'paid':12 'success':10", "contractId": "c78lo9vjaa", "createdTime": 1720038605524, "probChanges": {"day": 0.046950040470433496, "week": 0.04159388645094686, "month": 0.04159388645094686}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.046950040470433496, "probChangeWeek": 0.04159388645094686, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.04159388645094686}, {"id": "q4nxd09ok6", "prob": 0.29159388645094686, "text": "I get paid for solving someone's problem", "index": 3, "poolNo": 185.2070157110384, "userId": "hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 449.9469580750159, "textFts": "'get':2 'paid':3 'problem':8 'solv':5 'someon':6", "contractId": "c78lo9vjaa", "createdTime": 1720038605524, "probChanges": {"day": 0.046950040470433496, "week": 0.04159388645094686, "month": 0.04159388645094686}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.046950040470433496, "probChangeWeek": 0.04159388645094686, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0.04159388645094686}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1699161469267 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720243128684 | 1720243724335 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0hdpfslmcl | conditional-on-biden-dropping-out-w-tfcbbs9jur | 5082.959373509562 | Conditional on Biden dropping out, who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President? [Add answers] | 1727729940000 | i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720039160669 | CelebratedWhale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 85.73617951476483, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 326.1117736559608 | 1400 | CelebratedWhale | 1720216996914 | 0 | 37 | 5 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5dmg7rpjn4", "prob": 0.2027512824569679, "text": "Kamala Harris", "index": 0, "poolNo": 269.0183382845729, "userId": "i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1057.820806822534, "textFts": "'harri':2 'kamala':1", "contractId": "0hdpfslmcl", "createdTime": 1720039160669, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04651160347226166, "week": -0.1305820508763654, "month": -0.1305820508763654}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04651160347226166, "probChangeWeek": -0.1305820508763654, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.1305820508763654}, {"id": "1ydyx4csau", "prob": 0.08621889195613927, "text": "Pete Buttigieg", "index": 1, "poolNo": 162.01679231355988, "userId": "i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1717.1165233405086, "textFts": "'buttigieg':2 'pete':1", "contractId": "0hdpfslmcl", "createdTime": 1720039160669, "probChanges": {"day": 0.009439349145613563, "week": -0.24711444137719404, "month": -0.24711444137719404}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.009439349145613563, "probChangeWeek": -0.24711444137719404, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.24711444137719404}, {"id": "nlsi1jppv7", "prob": 0.0076952152811216494, "text": "Joe Biden", "index": 2, "poolNo": 21.690140421848287, "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2796.9627015668357, "textFts": "'biden':2 'joe':1", "contractId": "0hdpfslmcl", "createdTime": 1720040869691, "probChanges": {"day": -0.001012680211129065, "week": -0.21452700694110055, "month": -0.21452700694110055}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.001012680211129065, "probChangeWeek": -0.21452700694110055, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.21452700694110055}, {"id": "m867xz6i57", "prob": 0.0020850885516231613, "text": "Hunter Biden", "index": 3, "poolNo": 5.598277818431036, "userId": "UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2679.31302442482, "textFts": "'biden':2 'hunter':1", "contractId": "0hdpfslmcl", "createdTime": 1720041513595, "probChanges": {"day": -0.00029143012682051293, "week": -0.49791491144837685, "month": -0.49791491144837685}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.00029143012682051293, "probChangeWeek": -0.49791491144837685, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.49791491144837685}, {"id": "s7vsqzil4s", "prob": 0.07132791010380339, "text": "Gavin Newsom", "index": 4, "poolNo": 30.514411352801126, "userId": "rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 397.290234940544, "textFts": "'gavin':1 'newsom':2", "contractId": "0hdpfslmcl", "createdTime": 1720043928536, "probChanges": {"day": -0.024210095581055968, "week": -0.4286720898961966, "month": -0.4286720898961966}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.024210095581055968, "probChangeWeek": -0.4286720898961966, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.4286720898961966}, {"id": "v29boxz85u", "prob": 0.006067691118770186, "text": "Jill Biden", "index": 5, "poolNo": 8.102036123220774, "userId": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1327.172941562676, "textFts": "'biden':2 'jill':1", "contractId": "0hdpfslmcl", "createdTime": 1720072722943, "probChanges": {"day": 0.0005408347169500484, "week": -0.4939323088812298, "month": -0.4939323088812298}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.0005408347169500484, "probChangeWeek": -0.4939323088812298, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.4939323088812298}, {"id": "hnc0r4b1ek", "prob": 0.6238539205315744, "text": "Other", "index": 6, "poolNo": 455.3215347627483, "userId": "i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 274.53127176410203, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0hdpfslmcl", "createdTime": 1720039160669, "probChanges": {"day": 0.06204562552870352, "week": 0.2905205871982411, "month": 0.2905205871982411}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.06204562552870352, "probChangeWeek": 0.2905205871982411, "totalLiquidity": 271.47979911873176, "probChangeMonth": 0.2905205871982411}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693507367468 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720216993695 | 1720073037028 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 1qcmennj3v | {"NO": 100.00000000000001, "YES": 100.00000000000003} | 0.49999999999999994 | will-bronny-james-score-10-points-i | 48.486442117535375 | Will Bronny James score 10 total points in the 2024-25 season (not inclusive of preseason) | 1746075540000 | BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720039251038 | Chinmay The Math Guy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "via B/R:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bronny James and his father, LeBron James, are expected to share the court with the Los Angeles Lakers in the first week of the upcoming NBA season, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SportsCenter ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(2:20 mark)", "type": "text"}, {"text": ".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/yQSnxxwCyvk?enablejsapi=1&=1&playsinline=1", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, Wojnarowski added that there are \"no expectations\" that James will be in the Lakers' rotation. Instead, James is expected to spend the majority of his time with the Lakers' G League team, the South Bay Lakers", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.513557882464589, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ChinmayTheMathGuy | 1720054908158 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677787177859 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720054883776 | 1720054907128 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
gqqssrfm0v | which-affordable-care-act-obamacare | 300 | Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029? | 1862035140000 | A6WRayk8RmNpyx34WBKKdJCt4F83 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720040510805 | C3PO the Dragon Slayer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Affordable Care Act, colloquially Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010 and contained many reforms of the US healthcare system. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since then, several provisions have been amended or removed, either legislatively (the individual mandate was zeroed out in 2017), or judicially (parts of the incentives for Medicaid expansion were overruled by the Supreme Court in 2012).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which provisions will continue to be in effect on January 1, 2029?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For cases where a provision is tweaked but not removed, I will resolve to Yes if the new law as of 2029 subsumes/implies the old law and No if the old law subsumes the new law.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, for \"Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26”, if the cutoff were raised to 27, I would resolve as Yes, and if it were lowered to 25, I would resolve as No.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As another example, with the individual mandate penalty functionally set to $0, as it was in 2017, I would have resolved a question about the individual mandate surviving as No even if the language of the mandate is still law.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.432594799021846, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1200 | C3POtheDragonSlayer | 1720040850505 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7d229VN6EVq3TTznucx41aQTm4sj4xwy1C1PGQ=s96-c | 1 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "wwxz7zjuy", "prob": 0.6584981450481372, "text": "Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 138.86114579391614, "userId": "A6WRayk8RmNpyx34WBKKdJCt4F83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.01438489382052, "textFts": "'condit':10 'discrimin':5 'guarante':1 'insur':7 'issu':2 'preexist':9 'protect':3", 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and at least one of the following must still be true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "'Virgin' is still in its name (a brand name would count)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Virgin Group is still a >5% investor (currently 11.9% at the time of writing)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's continued development or operation of a vehicle with shared heritage to the SpaceShipTwo vehicle (Virgin Galactic's recently retired spacecraft)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mergers, acquisitions, or name changes do not disqualify the company as long as the above conditions are still met (though there must be some continuity between the company that exists today and the company that meets the criteria; if Virgin group creates a new and entirely separate spaceflight venture that meets the criteria, that won't be sufficient to resolve YES)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please keep in mind that the resolution criteria may change for a few days (and please feel free to give feedback)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Virgin Galactic has achieved a number of impressive achievements in the past few years, culminating in successfully completing their first 7 commercial suborbital space-tourism flights in just under a year", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However they've now retired their SpaceShipTwo vehicle in order to develop their new Delta class vehicle - a similar spacecraft derived from SpaceShipTwo but designed to have a higher capacity (6 passengers instead of 4) and to be much easier to reuse", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They have an ambitious plan to have a maiden flight in 2026, reach cash-breakeven by 2027, and become profitable after bringing online a 3rd Delta class vehicle and second carrier aircraft in 2028", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Historically the company has received much of its funding from founders Richard Branson and Virgin Group, but after Branson announced late last year that he wouldn't be providing Virgin Galactic any more funding and that the nearly $1B it has in reserve should be \"sufficient funds to do its job on its own\", a timely path to profitability will likely be crucial for the company's continued operation", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant info and related markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "iy47i5ei5r", "label": "/Nat/when-will-the-first-virgin-galactic"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eric Berger's article on Virgin Galactic's ambitious plans for the next few years", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/virgin-galactic-has-ceased-flying-its-only-space-plane-now-what/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.35, "month": -0.35} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.8585715714571505, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Nat | 1720052004296 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702671407106 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720052001243 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | dvmla8o1ku | {"NO": 76.83402995835333, "YES": 130.15066378036326} | 0.3712063369059713 | will-kamala-harris-be-president-by | 60 | Will Kamala Harris become President before February 2029? | 1864627140000 | R1FYWUk3bveksTL1k9kJCmuJjey1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720046851264 | zaperrer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For any reason, at any moment up to and including 2028, will Kamala Harris become president.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes resolutions include but are not limited to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winning the 2024 election", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winning the 2028 election", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In case of the removal of Joe Biden from office or of his death or resignation, Kamala Harris becomes President", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.05962972539497935, "week": -0.12879366309402868, "month": -0.12879366309402868} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7977956689423957, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 100 | zaperrer | 1720216504590 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681846792957 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720216501492 | 1720152665161 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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iy47i5ei5r | when-will-the-first-virgin-galactic | 66 | When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >80km? | 1925038740000 | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1720048450086 | Nat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Virgin Galactic recently retired their SpaceShipTwo vehicle in order to develop their new Delta-class of vehicles - a similar spacecraft derived from SpaceShipTwo but designed to have a higher capacity (6 passengers instead of 4) and to be much easier to reuse", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They're currently aiming for a maiden flight in 2026", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, 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0.4572662981979063 | skag5rmevs | {"NO": 8465.854043806572, "YES": 12144.845810127053} | 0.36999999999999966 | if-biden-is-sworn-into-a-second-ter | 3145.5413976489435 | If Biden is sworn into a second term will he die within 4 years of being sworn in? | 1864627140000 | eieeU345lwUIithZDydMfum1WKG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0922670193853306 | False | plus | public | 1720053407484 | Alex Litzenberger | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.00660627945055664, "week": -0.13000000000000034, "month": -0.13000000000000034} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 92.37759069162324, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 189.5413976489437 | 10000 | alexlitz | 1720244180593 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693450992990 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720244177518 | 1720069897714 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9h2sl00ex6 | who-will-become-the-next-governor-o | 0 | Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom? | 1815339540000 | iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1720054018193 | JuJumper | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gavin Newsom is term-limited and cannot seek re-election as California governor in 2026. 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0.5000000000000011 | 4dayc7ro4p | {"NO": 4188.026758107592, "YES": 238.77593381276873} | 0.9460613109663611 | will-the-fifth-busy-beaver-still-be | 3227.401422159994 | Will the fifth Busy Beaver still be thought to be proven to be 47,176,870 at the end of 2025? | 1765871940000 | Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.905830765702731 | False | basic | public | 1720056636555 | William Ehlhardt | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A team claims to have proved the value of the fifth busy beaver number: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://discuss.bbchallenge.org/t/july-2nd-2024-we-have-proved-bb-5-47-176-870/237", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discuss.bbchallenge.org/t/july-2nd-2024-we-have-proved-bb-5-47-176-870/237", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this result hold up? Or will someone find some hole in the proof, or even a counterexample?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.44606131096636115, "month": 0.44606131096636115} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.37466405240146, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | WilliamEhlhardt | 1720153744392 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhIt4otiuT2URGdpXkfphc7Dd1YGXK9gzUx5RHztA=s96-c | 11 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1649237269951 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720153741331 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | 5bpzs5wmc5 | {"NO": 889.4977894156185, "YES": 2053.0322875222973} | 0.06588393347008946 | will-80000-hours-should-remove-open | 1060 | Will "80,000 hours should remove OpenAI from the Jo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.001677580532693 | False | public | 1720059742019 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "80,000 hours should remove OpenAI from the Job Board (and similar EA orgs should do similarly)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8qCwuE8GjrYPSqbri/80-000-hours-should-remove-openai-from-the-job-board-and", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.0003486608197662555, "week": -0.07411606652991055, "month": -0.07411606652991055} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.967712477702271, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1720187632689 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 5 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1720187629598 | 0 |
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