CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

My4PdtJriqPf6H580777

who-will-be-the-51st-us-president

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Who will be the 51st US President?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

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play

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1672701226629

WXTJ

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve it when it happens. Closing date arbitrarily far in the future. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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WXTJ

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0

https://firebasestorage.…ed7-9ff9afa6374e

8

0

ANYONE

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https://firebasestorage.…4c2-e1d928c093b9

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[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1"}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-president...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "donald-trump", "future-us-presidents", "united-states"]

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{"NO": 575.895284021078, "YES": 1010.477713945057}

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will-i-have-hired-a-full-time-life

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Will I have hired a "full time life fixer" by the end of 2023?

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ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1

cpmm-1

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1.134178318709128

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NO

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1672701339533

Alana

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/rajlearns/status/1609637680866029568", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/rajlearns/status/1609637680866029568", "class": null, "target": "_blank"...

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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672701340448}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128541282}]

["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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{"NO": 869.3799610660517, "YES": 1219.9476897481466}

0.3301342523948332

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Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?

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Matt Reardon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Top 8 Economies are fixed as US, China, Japan, Germany, India, UK, France, Canada. Live birth data as recorded here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-birth-rate?tab=chart&time=2016..2021&country=DEU~USA~GBR~CAN...

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Will I be accepted to Pomona College?

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arae

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if my Regular Decision application to Pomona College is accepted, and NO if it is rejected.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pomona's overall acceptance rate is 7%.", "type": "text...

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["araes-college-applications"]

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what-habit-will-i-have-wished-i-had

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What habit will I have wished I had adopted earlier as of mid-2024?

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cpmm-multi-1

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Jacob Pfau

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A habit roughly refers to any activity I spend >=1 hour per week on. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the habit which I retrospectively most wish I had adopted. This in...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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JacobPfau

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1672702150245}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672702140332}, {"name": "Cha...

["personal-goals", "health", "change-my-mind"]

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{"e02577b657ba": 100}

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{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

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planecrash-who-is-the-that-feanar-a

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[Planecrash] Who is the ??? that Fe-Anar and Ione met in the City of Brass?

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cpmm-1

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4.3944491546724365

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CANCEL

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April

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BINARY

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April

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planecrash-who-is-the-that-feanar-a-b559ed47768d

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[Planecrash] Who is the ??? that Fe-Anar and Ione met in the City of Brass?

1672702776423

xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2

cpmm-multi-1

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April

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who is the character that first appears in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1905690#reply-1905690", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1905690#reply-1905690", "class": ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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ANYONE

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[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1672702681655}]

["glowfic"]

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{"NO": 50.37314655363157, "YES": 50.3731465536318}

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scamming-acceleration-test

7638.0000000000055

Scamming Acceleration test

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cpmm-1

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4.374646488454188

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CANCEL

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ZZZ ZZZ

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

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ZZZZZZ

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[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1672702700336}]

["law-order"]

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{"NO": 238.63184774226713, "YES": 217.60483255420652}

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will-average-canadian-residential-p

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Will average Canadian residential prices increase by April?

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cpmm-1

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1.1506538856610513

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YES

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1672703037334

keri

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Canadian Real Estate Association (stats.crea.ca) publishes Canadian housing statistics.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "parag...

BINARY

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zoli

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1672703037670}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "userId": "U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1673383370782}]

["economics-default", "canada"]

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{"NO": 212.02216355396513, "YES": 1946.8192418270485}

0

will-kalshi-be-available-in-the-uk

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Will Kalshi be available in the UK before the end of 2023?

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cpmm-1

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1.7088284646127518

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NO

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1672706248730

Will Howard

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently they don't even list the UK in their country dropdown so I'm not optimistic", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes a month early to make it more forecasty", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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WilliamHoward

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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672706249583}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1700859833988}]

["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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{"NO": 1839.875242177597, "YES": 863.8315866104342}

0.9430726879845995

will-the-euro-be-worth-more-than-th-d191a7051d99

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Will the Euro be worth more than the US Dollar at the end of 2024?

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1672707050029

Marcus Abramovitch

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD", "class": null, "...

BINARY

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1000

MarcusAbramovitch

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[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1672707050810}]

["economics-default"]

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{"NO": 1191.628752759838, "YES": 265.68765219663607}

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[Planecrash] Vf gur zlfgrevbhf jbzna va gur pvgl bs oenff Rerphen?

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cpmm-1

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3.6215837328947895

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YES

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Tim P

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TimP

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["glowfic", "planecrash", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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{"NO": 187.4902244842083, "YES": 263.6740905755526}

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Resolves to PROB of market

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cpmm-1

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1.4966946237676821

True

play

MKT

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ZZZ ZZZ

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to MKT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 2, 6:48pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Self-resolving, bet at your own risk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Resolves to PROB of ma...

BINARY

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ZZZZZZ

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["selfresolving", "whale-watching", "gambling"]

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False

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{"NO": 9754.23318449912, "YES": 402.40990317714886}

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Will Destiny say the n word (soft a or hard r) on stream in 2023?

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cpmm-1

0.252249437386092

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True

basic

YES

public

1672707726162

GAZE WITHIN

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On any account.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1693451835871

1990

destiny

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Will Prometheus Fuels sell fuel by the end of 2025?

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will-at-least-5-members-abstain-fro

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will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-3abf7b7a3abc

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Will the next Speaker of the House be elected within 5 ballots?

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will-sbf-go-to-the-pen

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Will SBF go to “the pen”?

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will-mccarthy-be-elected-next-speak

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Will McCarthy be elected next Speaker of the House with fewer than 218 votes?

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will-repelect-george-santos-appear

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Will Rep.-elect George Santos appear in court or in custody in Brazil (including through extradition) before the end of 2024?

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octothorpe

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will-the-big-memes-tomorrow-be-mrgi

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Will the "big memes tomorrow" be mrgirl related (YES) or keffals related (NO)

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CANCEL

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1672718324851

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will-the-big-memes-tomorrow-be-mrgi-0961970e5f06

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??? ... !!! (nope)

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2.3108581167833573

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NO

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1672718743790

Cimorene Blume

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Bolton Bailey

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Is Integer Factorization NP-Complete?

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1672719343679

Reality Quotient

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will I be seriously impacted by flooding, landslides, outages, food shortages, water or gas cutoffs, etc, in oakland, ca, before jan 15?

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1672733494769

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cpmm-1

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