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Data missing not at random (MNAR) is a major challenge in survey sampling. We propose an approach based on registry data to deal with non-ignorable missingness in health examination surveys. |
Short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is the most common window-based approach for analyzing the spectrotemporal dynamics of time series. To mitigate the effects of high variance on the spectral estimates due to finite-length, independent STFT windows, state-space multitaper (SSMT) method used a state-space framework to... |
This paper proposes a Bayesian hierarchical model to characterize the relationship between birth weight and maternal pre-eclampsia across gestation at a large maternity hospital in urban Uganda. Key scientific questions we investigate include: |
Generalized additive mixed models are introduced as an extension of the generalized linear mixed model which makes it possible to deal with temporal autocorrelational structure in experimental data. This autocorrelational structure is likely to be a consequence of learning, fatigue, or the ebb and flow of attention wi... |
The sensitivity analysis and validation of simulation models require specific approaches in the case of spatial models. We describe the spatialdata scala library providing such tools, including synthetic generators for urban configurations at different scales, spatial networks, and spatial point processes. |
Complex network data problems are increasingly common in many fields of application. Our motivation is drawn from strategic marketing studies monitoring customer choices of specific products, along with co-subscription networks encoding multiple purchasing behavior. |
This study explores the performance of modern, accurate machine learning algorithms on the classification of fossil teeth in the Family Bovidae. Isolated bovid teeth are typically the most common fossils found in southern Africa and they often constitute the basis for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. |
This paper uses a "principal strata" approach to decompose treatment effects and interpret why a schooling intervention that yielded exceptional initial effects yielded substantially smaller effects in a replication years later. The specific application is a set of 2008 and 2015 replications of an intervention... |
The presence of \b{eta}-convergence in European regions is an important issue to be analyzed. In this paper, we adopt a quantile regression approach in analyzing economic convergence. |
Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates are needed to inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for producing estimates. |
Low dimensional and computationally less expensive Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) have been widely used to capture the dominant behaviors of high-dimensional systems. A ROM can be obtained, using the well-known Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), by projecting the full-order model to a subspace spanned by modal basis ... |
Although there are many methods for functional data analysis (FDA), little emphasis is put on characterizing variability among volatilities of individual functions. In particular, certain individuals exhibit erratic swings in their trajectory while other individuals have more stable trajectories. |
Clinical trials are common in medical research where multiple non-Gaussian responses and time-dependent observations are frequent. The analysis of data from these studies requires statistical modeling techniques that take these characteristics into account. |
The Eurovision Song Contest is a popular TV singing competition held annually among country members of the European Broadcasting Union. In this competition, each member can be both contestant and jury, as it can participate with a song and/or vote for other countries' tunes. |
We develop a Bayesian model for the alignment of two point configurations under the full similarity transformations of rotation, translation and scaling. Other work in this area has concentrated on rigid body transformations, where scale information is preserved, motivated by problems involving molecular data; this is... |
Individuals with bipolar disorder tend to cycle through disease states such as depression and mania. The heterogeneous nature of disease across states complicates the evaluation of interventions for bipolar disorder patients, as varied interventional success is observed within and across individuals. |
The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic evolution of system and in system reliability estimation. |
Recently it has been observed that the bivariate generalized linear failure rate distribution can be used quite effectively to analyze lifetime data in two dimensions. This paper introduces a more general class of bivariate distributions. |
In the age of big data, data integration is a critical step especially in the understanding of how diverse data types work together and work separately. Among data integration methods, the Angle-Based Joint and Individual Variation Explained (AJIVE) approach is particularly attractive because it not only studies joint... |
Community detection in networks is the process of identifying unusually well-connected sub-networks and is a central component of many applied network analyses. The paradigm of modularity optimization stipulates a partition of the network's vertices which maximizes the difference between the fraction of edges with... |
Imputation of missing values is a strategy for handling non-responses in surveys or data loss in measurement processes, which may be more effective than ignoring them. When the variable represents a count, the literature dealing with this issue is scarce. |
High concentration episodes for NO$_2$ are increasingly dealt with by authorities through traffic restrictions which are activated when air quality deteriorates beyond certain thresholds. Foreseeing the probability that pollutant concentrations reach those thresholds becomes thus a necessity. |
Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable? " by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1104.4002" data-arxiv-id="1104.4002" class="link-https">arXiv:1104.4002</a>] |
Background: Reference intervals are essential to interpret diagnostic tests, but their determination has become controversial. Methods: In this paper parametric, non-parametric and robust reference intervals with Tukey and block elimination are calculated from a dataset of over 32,000 serum immunoglobulin A (IgA) meas... |
Transition points are common in physiological processes. However the transition between normothermia and hypothermia during haemorrhagic shock has rarely been systematically quantified from intensive time series data. |
A same-score streak in sports is a sequence of games where the scores are equivalent in all games. The motivating problem arose from college basketball, however due to the difficulty in collecting data, streaks in Major League Baseball (MLB) were studied instead. |
The root-cause diagnostics of product quality defects in multistage manufacturing processes often requires a joint identification of crucial stages and process variables. To meet this requirement, this paper proposes a novel penalized matrix regression methodology for two-dimensional variable selection. |
With the recent advances in electrical engineering, devices attached to free-ranging marine mammals today can collect oceanographic data in remarkable high spatial-temporal resolution. However, those data cannot be fully utilized without a matching high-resolution and accurate path of the animal, which is currently mi... |
This paper develops a propagation model of electromagnetic signals emitted at frequencies of 20 and 40 MHz for the Ecuadorian jungle. It is expected that the results obtained at the end of this research will be applied to produce a complete coverage map for wireless communications technologies, which will optimize the... |
Surface water quality has a direct impact on public health, ecosystems, and agriculture, in addition to being an important indicator of the overall health of the environment. California's diverse climate, extensive coastline, and varied topography lead to distinct spatial and temporal patterns in surface water. |
We compare numerically the performance of reversible and non-reversible Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for high dimensional oil reservoir problems; because of the nature of the problem at hand, the target measures from which we sample are supported on bounded domains. We compare two strategies to deal with bounde... |
Reconciliation enforces coherence between hierarchical forecasts, in order to satisfy a set of linear constraints. While most works focus on the reconciliation of the point forecasts, we consider probabilistic reconciliation and we analyze the properties of the distributions reconciled via conditioning. |
This paper presents likelihood-based inference methods for the family of univariate gamma-normal distributions GN({\alpha}, r, {\mu}, {\sigma}^2 ) that result from summing independent gamma({\alpha}, r) and N({\mu}, {\sigma}^2 ) random variables. First, the probability density function of a gamma-normal variable is pr... |
Traditional Item Response Theory models assume the distribution of the abilities of the population in study to be Gaussian. However, this may not always be a reasonable assumption, which motivates the development of more general models. |
Sound is assumed to be the primary modality of communication among marine mammal species. Analyzing acoustic recordings helps to understand the function of the acoustic signals as well as the possible impact of anthropogenic noise on acoustic behavior. |
Model Selection is a key part of many ecological studies, with Akaike's Information Criterion the most commonly used technique. Typically, a number of candidate models are defined a priori and ranked according to their expected out-of-sample performance. |
The variance of the concentration in a sample can be estimated using knowledge of the particle masses, concentrations and the parameter for the dependent selection of particles. A number of variance estimators are constructed including a class of hybrid estimators. |
Plant reflectance spectra - the profile of light reflected by leaves across different wavelengths - supply the spectral signature for a species at a spatial location to enable estimation of functional and taxonomic diversity for plants. We consider leaf spectra as "responses" to be explained spatially. |
Quarantine measure is a commonly used non-pharmaceutical intervention during the outbreak of infectious diseases. A key problem for implementing quarantine measure is to determine the duration of quarantine. |
Applied researchers often find themselves making statistical inferences in settings that would seem to require multiple comparisons adjustments. We challenge the Type I error paradigm that underlies these corrections. |
In statistical process control Weibull distribution can be used to model the time between events or failures (TBE) in a process with increasing decreasing or constant failure rates. Specifically it helps in monitoring processes where the time between defect occurrences is of interest providing insight into the process... |
Identifying and preserving archaeological sites before they are destroyed is a very important issue. In this paper, we develop a greatly improved archaeological predictive model $APM_{enhanced}$ that predicts where archaeological sites will be found. |
This paper presents a method for thematic agreement assessment of geospatial data products of different semantics and spatial granularities, which may be affected by spatial offsets between test and reference data. The proposed method uses a multi-scale framework allowing for a probabilistic evaluation whether themati... |
The relevance of determinacy coefficients as indicators for the validity of factor score predictors has regularly been emphasized. Previous simulation studies revealed biased determinacy coefficients for factor score predictors based on categorical variables. |
In educational research, a first step in the descriptive analysis of data from any psychometric measurement of the performance of subjects in tests at different time points and between groups is to compute relative measures of learning gains and learning achievements. For these effect sizes, there are classical approa... |
Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) succeeds to control viral replication in most HIV infected patients. This is normally followed by a reconstitution of the CD4$^+$ T cells pool; however, this does not happen for a substantial proportion of patients. |
Genome-wide gene expression profiles, as measured with microarrays or RNA-Seq experiments, have revolutionized biological and biomedical research by providing a quantitative measure of the entire mRNA transcriptome. Typically, researchers set up experiments where control samples are compared to a treatment condition, ... |
The objective is to model longitudinal and survival data jointly taking into account the dependence between the two responses in a real HIV/AIDS dataset using a shared parameter approach inside a Bayesian framework. We propose a linear mixed effects dispersion model to adjust the CD4 longitudinal biomarker data with a... |
Singular-value statistics (SVS) has been recently presented as a random matrix theory tool able to properly characterize non-Hermitian random matrix ensembles [PRX Quantum {\bf 4}, 040312 (2023)]. Here, we perform a numerical study of the SVS of the non-Hermitian adjacency matrices $\mathbf{A}$ of directed random grap... |
One-sided t-tests are commonly used in the neuroimaging field, but two-sided tests should be the default unless a researcher has a strong reason for using a one-sided test. Here we extend our previous work on cluster false positive rates, which used one-sided tests, to two-sided tests. |
A common phenomenon in cancer syndromes is for an individual to have multiple primary cancers at different sites during his/her lifetime. Patients with Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), a rare pediatric cancer syndrome mainly caused by germline TP53 mutations, are known to have a higher probability of developing a second pr... |
To be able to produce accurate and reliable predictions of visibility has crucial importance in aviation meteorology, as well as in water- and road transportation. Nowadays, several meteorological services provide ensemble forecasts of visibility; however, the skill, and reliability of visibility predictions are far r... |
In recent years, neuroimaging has undergone a paradigm shift, moving away from the traditional brain mapping approach toward developing integrated, multivariate brain models that can predict categories of mental events. However, large interindividual differences in brain anatomy and functional localization after stand... |
Telemonitoring of electroencephalogram (EEG) through wireless body-area networks is an evolving direction in personalized medicine. Among various constraints in designing such a system, three important constraints are energy consumption, data compression, and device cost. |
We perform stochastic microsimulations of the dynamics of England and Wales population after the British referendum on EU membership, considering different possible outcomes. Employing available survey data, we model the demographics of the region over the next generation, as shaped by births, deaths and international... |
This paper presents a novel probabilistic approach for assessing the risk of West Nile Disease (WND) spillover to the human population. The assessment has been conducted under two different scenarios: (1) assessment of the onset of spillover, and (2) assessment of the severity of the epidemic after the onset of the di... |
Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable? " by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1104.4002" data-arxiv-id="1104.4002" class="link-https">arXiv:1104.4002</a>] |
Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational complexity $O(n^2)$ with the number of earthquakes and therefore do not scale w... |
Air pollution remains a critical environmental and public health challenge, demanding high-resolution spatial data to better understand its spatial distribution and impacts. This study addresses the challenges of conducting multivariate spatial analysis of air pollutants observed at aggregated levels, particularly whe... |
We introduce the Hawkes process with renewal immigration and make its statistical estimation possible with two Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms. The standard Hawkes process introduces immigrant points via a Poisson process, and each immigrant has a subsequent cluster of associated offspring of multiple generat... |
A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first studied by Zermelo in 1929 and rediscovered by Bradley and Terry in 1952. |
We develop new efficient online algorithms for detecting transient sparse signals in TEM video sequences, by adopting the recently developed framework for sequential detection jointly with online convex optimization [1]. We cast the problem as detecting an unknown sparse mean shift of Gaussian observations, and develo... |
Spatio-temporal models for infection counts generally follow themes of the broader disease mapping literature, but may need to address specific features of spatio-temporal infection data including considerable time fluctuations (with epidemic phases) and spatial diffusion. Low order autoregression is a feature of seve... |
Motivated by the need for accurate traffic flow prediction in transportation management, we propose a functional data method to analyze traffic flow patterns and predict future traffic flow. In this study we approach the problem by sampling traffic flow trajectories from a mixture of stochastic processes. |
A nonparametric fuel consumption model is developed and used for eco-routing algorithm development in this paper. Six months of driving information from the city of Ann Arbor is collected from 2,000 vehicles. |
The output of solar power generation is significantly dependent on the available solar radiation. Thus, with the proliferation of PV generation in the modern power grid, forecasting of solar irradiance is vital for proper operation of the grid. |
Empathic accuracy (EA) is the ability to accurately understand another person\textquotesingle s thoughts and feelings, which is crucial for social and psychological interactions. Traditionally, EA is assessed by comparing a perceiver\textquotesingle s moment-to-moment ratings of a target\textquotesingle s emotional st... |
Contemporary sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models require users to specify fixed values of assumed model performance metrics alongside target precision levels (e.g., 95% CI widths). However, due to the finite samples of previous studies, our knowledge of true model performance in ... |
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, whether COVID-19 patients with high risks can be recovered or not depends, to a large extent, on how early they will be treated appropriately before irreversible consequences are caused to the patients by the virus. In this research, we reported an explainable, intuitive, and accura... |
Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat t... |
An early detection of different tumor subtypes is crucial for an effective guidance to personalized therapy. While much efforts focus on decoding the sequence of DNA basis to detect the genetic mutations related to cancer, it is becoming clear that physical properties, including structural conformation, stiffness, and... |
Linear mixed-effects models have increasingly replaced mixed-model analyses of variance for statistical inference in factorial psycholinguistic experiments. Although LMMs have many advantages over ANOVA, like ANOVAs, setting them up for data analysis also requires some care. |
We present a novel quasi-Bayesian method to weight multiple dynamical models by their skill at capturing both potentially non-linear trends and first-order autocorrelated variability of the underlying process, and to make weighted probabilistic projections. We validate the method using a suite of one-at-a-time cross-v... |
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that has emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of October 13, the outbreak has spread rapidly across the world, affecting over 38 million people, and causing over 1 million deaths. |
Three dual systems estimates are employed to study the number of killings in southern rural Norway in a period of slightly over 250 years. The first system is a set of five letters sent to each killer as part of the legal process. |
This paper presents a framework for incentivising colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs from the perspective of policymakers and under the assumption that the citizens participating in the program have misaligned objectives. To do so, it leverages tools from adversarial risk analysis to propose an optimal incenti... |
The paper deals with the study of labor market dynamics, and aims to characterize its equilibriums and possible trajectories. The theoretical background is the theory of the segmented labor market. |
Due to the heterogeneity of the randomized controlled trial (RCT) and external target populations, the estimated treatment effect from the RCT is not directly applicable to the target population. For example, the patient characteristics of the ACTG 175 HIV trial are significantly different from that of the three exter... |
Gene/pathway-based methods are drawing significant attention due to their usefulness in detecting rare and common variants that affect disease susceptibility. The biological mechanism of drug responses indicates that a gene-based analysis has even greater potential in pharmacogenetics. |
In this paper we consider non-asymptotic behavior of the real compound Wishart matrices that generalize the classical real Wishart distribution. In particular, we consider matrices of the form 1/nXBX', where X consists of real centered Gaussian elements and B is an arbitrary real matrix and sequences of such matri... |
Equipment sharing among people who inject drugs (PWID) is a key risk factor in infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV). Both the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing HCV transmission in this population (such as opioid substitution therapy, needle exchange programs or improved treatment)... |
Evaluating the overall ability of players in the National Hockey League (NHL) is a difficult task. Existing methods such as the famous "plus/minus" statistic have many shortcomings. |
While the design of automated knowledge-based sensor scheduling is relevant to many multi-target detection and tracking problems, tracking algorithms are rarely built for this purpose and their outputs provide little flexibility for the design of sensor policies. In this paper, we present an estimation framework for s... |
The study of fingerprint individuality aims to determine to what extent a fingerprint uniquely identifies an individual. Recent court cases have highlighted the need for measures of fingerprint individuality when a person is identified based on fingerprint evidence. |
Because most natural phenomena exhibit dependence at multiple scales like locations of earthquakes or forest fire occurrences, spatio-temporal single-scale point process models are unrealistic in many applications. This motivates us to construct generalizations of classical Gibbs models. |
Among many techniques of modern mass spectrometry, the top down methods are becoming continuously more popular in the overall strive to describe the proteome. These techniques are based on fragmentation of ions inside mass spectrometers instead of being proteolytically digested. |
The goal of this paper is to develop a multilingual classifier and conditional probability estimator of occupation codes for online job advertisements in accordance with the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) extended with the Polish Classification of Occupations and Specializations (KZiS), whi... |
The pure tone hearing threshold is usually estimated from responses to stimuli at a set of standard frequencies. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to the estimation problem in which the hearing threshold is modelled as a smooth continuous function of frequency using a Gaussian process. |
Fine resolution estimates of demographic and socioeconomic attributes are crucial for planning and policy development. While several efforts have been made to produce fine-scale gridded population estimates, socioeconomic features are typically not available at scales finer than Census units, which may hide local hete... |
As the first paper of a series of exploratory analysis and statistical investigation works on the Gambian \textit{GABECE} data based on a variety of statistical tools, we wish to begin with a thorough unsupervised learning process through descriptive and exploratory methods. This will lead to a variety of discoveries ... |
The amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) method produces anonymous genetic markers from throughout a genome. We extend the nucleotide substitution model of AFLP evolution to additionally include insertion and deletion processes. |
We show with a few descriptive examples the limitations of Artificial Neural Networks when they are applied to the analysis of independent stochastic data. |
In this paper we derive control charts for the variance of a Gaussian process using the likelihood ratio approach, the generalized likelihood ratio approach, the sequential probability ratio method and a generalized sequential probability ratio procedure, the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure and a generalized Shiryaev-Robert... |
In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the Bayesian framework since it is absolutely robust with respect to the modeling a... |
We have applied a little-known data transformation to subsets of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) publically available data of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) to make it suitable input to standard machine learning classifiers. This transformation properly treats the right-censored data in the... |
Societal stress may cause far reaching political, economic and even geological effects. Nevertheless, it is still scarcely investigated, contrary to social stress, which an individual faces in their interactions within a society. |
We develop a time series model to forecast weekly peak power demand for three main states of Australia for a yearly time-scale, and show the crucial role of environmental factors in improving the forecasts. More precisely, we construct a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and reinforce it... |
We present a model to describe the inbound air traffic over a congested hub. We show that this model gives a very accurate description of the traffic by the comparison of our theoretical distribution of the queue with the actual distribution observed over Heathrow airport. |
The method of biomass estimation based on a volume-to-biomass relationship has been applied in estimating forest biomass conventionally through the mean volume (m3 ha-1). However, few studies have been reported concerning the verification of the volume-biomass equations regressed using field data. |
Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate autoregressive model tailored for panel data with composition-valued responses at each ... |
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