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This paper investigates projection of two major causes of cancer mortality, breast cancer and lung cancer, by using a Bayesian modelling framework. We investigate patterns in 2001-2018 (as baseline) in cause-specific cancer mortality and project these by year of death and various risk factors: age, gender, regions of ... |
To meet order fulfillment targets, manufacturers seek to optimize production schedules. Machine learning can support this objective by predicting throughput times on production lines given order specifications. |
Statistical analysis of monthly rates of events in around 20 hospitals and over a period of about 10 years shows that respiratory arrest, though about five times less frequent than cardio-respiratory arrest, is a common occurrence in the Emergency Department of a typical smaller UK hospital. This report has been prepa... |
Hundreds of millions of people live in countries that do not have complete death registration systems, meaning that most deaths are not recorded and critical quantities like life expectancy cannot be directly measured. The sibling survival method is a leading approach to estimating adult mortality in the absence of de... |
In psychophysical experiments time and the limited goodwill of participants is usually a major constraint. This has been the main motivation behind the early development of adaptive methods for the measurements of psychometric thresholds. |
The Bernoulli Factory is an algorithm that takes as input a series of i.i.d. Bernoulli random variables with an unknown but fixed success probability $p$, and outputs a corresponding series of Bernoulli random variables with success probability $f(p)$, where the function $f$ is known and defined on the interval $[0,1]$... |
In recent years there has been widespread concern in the scientific community over a reproducibility crisis. Among the major causes that have been identified is statistical: In many scientific research the statistical analysis (including data preparation) suffers from a lack of transparency and methodological problems... |
The spatial composition and cellular heterogeneity of the tumor microenvironment plays a critical role in cancer development and progression. High-definition pathology imaging of tumor biopsies provide a high-resolution view of the spatial organization of different types of cells. |
BACKGROUND. Formal demography has a long history of building simple models of age schedules of demographic quantities, e.g. mortality and fertility rates. |
The cumulants and moments of the log of the non-central chi-square distribution are derived. For example, the expected log of a chi-square random variable with v degrees of freedom is log(2) + psi(v/2). |
We present analysis of anonymised admission/discharge data from insurance provider for Saxony and Thuringia (Germany) for years 2010--2016. Study of such data are necessary to derive a structure of healthcare system transfer network, as no patients' transfer data are currently available. |
Inference of population structure from genetic data plays an important role in population and medical genetics studies. With the advancement and decreasing cost of sequencing technology, the increasingly available whole genome sequencing data provide much richer information about the underlying population structure. |
This study introduces and evaluates the Quantile Regressor Tree (QRT), a novel methodology merging the robust characteristics of quantile regression with the versatility of decision trees. The quantile regressor tree introduces non-linearity to the quantile regression due to the splitting by features in the decision t... |
This study estimates the overall effect of two influenza vaccination programs consecutively administered in a cluster-randomized trial in western Senegal over the course of two influenza seasons from 2009-2011. We apply cutting-edge methodology combining social contact data with infection data to reduce bias in estima... |
We introduce VISTA, a clustering approach for multivariate and irregularly sampled time series based on a parametric state space mixture model. VISTA is specifically designed for the unsupervised identification of groups in datasets originating from healthcare and psychology where such sampling issues are commonplace.... |
Opioid overdose rates have reached an epidemic level and state-level policy innovations have followed suit in an effort to prevent overdose deaths. State-level drug law is a set of policies that may reinforce or undermine each other, and analysts have a limited set of tools for handling the policy collinearity using s... |
Recently, the Bayesian nonparametric approach in survival studies attracts much more attentions. Because of multi modality in survival data, the mixture models are very common in this field. |
In biostatistics and medical research, longitudinal data are often composed of repeated assessments of a variable (e.g., blood pressure or other biomarkers) and dichotomous indicators to mark an event of interest (e.g., recovery from disease, or death). Consequently, joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event da... |
A thresholded Gaussian random field model is developed for the microstructure of porous materials. Defining the random field as a solution to stochastic partial differential equation allows for flexible modelling of non-stationarities in the material and facilitates computationally efficient methods for simulation and... |
Change of direction is a key element of player movement in American football, yet there remains a lack of objective approaches for in-game performance evaluation of this athletic trait. Using tracking data, we propose a Bayesian mixed-effects model with heterogeneous variances for assessing a player's ability to m... |
Prolonged power outages debilitate the economy and threaten public health. Existing research is generally limited in its scope to a single event, an outage cause, or a region. |
Virtual experiments (VEs), a modern tool in metrology, can be used to help perform an uncertainty evaluation for the measurand. Current guidelines in metrology do not cover the many possibilities to incorporate VEs into an uncertainty evaluation, and it is often difficult to assess if the intended use of a VE complies... |
Data used in stock assessment models result from combinations of biological, ecological, fishery, and sampling processes. Since different types of errors propagate through these processes it can be difficult to identify a particular family of distributions for modelling errors on observations a priori. |
We consider the problem of conditioning a geological process-based computer simulation, which produces basin models by simulating transport and deposition of sediments, to data. Emphasising uncertainty quantification, we frame this as a Bayesian inverse problem, and propose to characterize the posterior probability di... |
Sequential estimation of a vector of linear regression coefficients is considered under both centralized and decentralized setups. In sequential estimation, the number of observations used for estimation is determined by the observed samples, hence is random, as opposed to fixed-sample-size estimation. |
Data scientists frequently train predictive models on administrative data. However, the process that generates this data can bias predictive models, making it important to test models against their intended use. |
We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. |
Dynamic simulators model systems evolving over time. Often, it operates iteratively over fixed number of time-steps. |
Sequential monitoring of images has broad applications across various domains, including climate science, ecosystem monitoring, medical diagnostics, and so forth. In many such applications, images acquired over time exhibit gradual changes, referred to as drifts, which pose significant challenges for monitoring. |
In England, Progress 8 is the Conservative government's headline secondary school performance and accountability measure. Progress 8 attempts to measure the average academic progress pupils make in each school between their KS2 tests and their GCSE Attainment 8 examinations. |
We propose a new statistics for the detection of differentially expressed genes, when the genes are activated only in a subset of the samples. Statistics designed for this unconventional circumstance has proved to be valuable for most cancer studies, where oncogenes are activated for a small number of disease samples.... |
The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model with a CV-GRNN model. |
When an item goes out of stock, sales transaction data no longer reflect the original customer demand, since some customers leave with no purchase while others substitute alternative products for the one that was out of stock. Here we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring the underlying customer arrival ... |
The paper introduces an approach to telematics devices data application in automotive insurance. We conduct a comparative analysis of different types of devices that collect information on vehicle utilization and driving style of its driver, describe advantages and disadvantages of these devices and indicate the most ... |
Visual statistical inference is a way to determine significance of patterns found while exploring data. It is dependent on the evaluation of a lineup, of a data plot among a sample of null plots, by human observers. |
The evaluation of a match between the DNA profile of a stain found on a crime scene and that of a suspect (previously identified) involves the use of the unknown parameter $p=(p_1, p_2, ...)$, (the ordered vector which represents the proportions of the different DNA profiles in the population of potential donors) and t... |
Traditionally, evaluation of intersection safety has been largely reactive, based on historical crash frequency data. However, the emerging data from Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can complement historical data and help in proactively identify intersections which have high levels of variability in instantane... |
This paper presents the intrinsic geometric model for the solution of power system planning and its operation. This problem is large-scale and nonlinear, in general. |
Based on audio recordings made once a month during the first 12 months of a child's life, we propose a new method for clustering this set of vocalizations. We use a topologically augmented representation of the vocalizations, employing two persistence diagrams for each vocalization: one computed on the surface of ... |
An inaccessible control architecture caused an undesirable influence on a UAV. The encountered noise in the performance was modeled using stochastic methods and a corrective term was implemented on an external controller. |
Observational studies are valuable for estimating the effects of various medical interventions, but are notoriously difficult to evaluate because the methods used in observational studies require many untestable assumptions. This lack of verifiability makes it difficult both to compare different observational study me... |
In the last decades wind power became the second largest energy source in the EU covering 16% of its electricity demand. However, due to its volatility, accurate short range wind power predictions are required for successful integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. |
The preferential siting of the locations of monitors of hazardous environmental fields can lead to the serious underestimation of the impacts of those fields. In particular, human health effects can be severely underestimated when standard statistical are applied without appropriate adjustment. |
The national forecasting competition WxChallenge, brainchild of Brad Illston at the University of Oklahoma in 2005, has become a cherished institution played across the United States each year. Participants include students, faculty, alumni, and industry professionals. |
The expectation that scientific productivity follows regular patterns over a career underpins many scholarly evaluations, including hiring, promotion and tenure, awards, and grant funding. However, recent studies of individual productivity patterns reveal a puzzle: on the one hand, the average number of papers publish... |
This paper addresses a common problem with hierarchical time series. Time series analysis demands the series for a model to be the sum of multiple series at corresponding sub-levels. |
Phonetics is the scientific field concerned with the study of how speech is produced, heard and perceived. It abounds with data, such as acoustic speech recordings, neuroimaging data, or articulatory data. |
A load sharing system has several components and the failure of one component can affect the lifetime of the surviving components. Since component failure does not equate to system failure for different system designs, the analysis of the dependency structure between components becomes a meaningful exercise. |
Earth system models (ESMs) are fundamental for understanding Earth's complex climate system. However, the computational demands and storage requirements of ESM simulations limit their utility. |
In medicine, comorbidities refer to the presence of multiple, co-occurring diseases. Due to their co-occurring nature, the course of one comorbidity is often highly dependent on the course of the other disease and, hence, treatments can have significant spill-over effects. |
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) can provide rich information for controlling output uncertainty. In practical applications, segmented models are commonly used to describe an abrupt model change. |
Multivariate spatial modeling is key to understanding the behavior of materials downstream in a mining operation. The ore recovery depends on the mineralogical composition, which needs to be properly captured by the model to allow for good predictions. |
Hospital-acquired infections of communicable viral diseases (CVDs) are posing a tremendous challenge to healthcare workers globally. Healthcare personnel (HCP) is facing a consistent risk of hospital-acquired infections, and subsequently higher rates of morbidity and mortality. |
This paper describes the methodology used by the team RedSea in the data competition organized for EVA 2021 conference. We develop a novel two-part model to jointly describe the wildfire count data and burnt area data provided by the competition organizers with covariates. |
Recently, to account for low-frequency market dynamics, several volatility models, employing high-frequency financial data, have been developed. However, in financial markets, we often observe that financial volatility processes depend on economic states, so they have a state heterogeneous structure. |
In the summer of 2017, the National Basketball Association reduced the number of total timeouts, along with other rule changes, to regulate the flow of the game. With these rule changes, it becomes increasingly important for coaches to effectively manage their timeouts. |
This paper investigates truck-involved crashes to determine the statistically significant factors that contribute to injury severity under different weather conditions. The analysis uses crash data from the state of Ohio between 2011 and 2015 available from the Highway Safety Information System. |
Abnormal gastric motility function could be related to gastric electrical uncoupling, the lack of electrical, and respectively mechanical, synchronization in different regions of the stomach. Therefore, non-invasive detection of the onset of gastric electrical uncoupling can be important for diagnosing associated gast... |
Vehicular air pollution has created an ongoing air quality and public health crisis. Despite growing knowledge of racial injustice in exposure levels, less is known about the relationship between the production of and exposure to such pollution. |
Tumor heterogeneity is a challenge to designing effective and targeted therapies. Glioma-type identification depends on specific molecular and histological features, which are defined by the official WHO classification CNS. |
The contribution of this study is a novel approach to introduce mean reversion in multi-step-ahead forecasts of state-space models. This approach is demonstrated in a prawn pond water quality forecasting application. |
Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable? " by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1104.4002" data-arxiv-id="1104.4002" class="link-https">arXiv:1104.4002</a>] |
The doctrinal paradox is analysed from a probabilistic point of view assuming a simple parametric model for the committee's behaviour. The well known issue-by-issue and case-by-case majority rules are compared in this model, by means of the concepts of false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR) and Recei... |
Biplot Methods allow for the simultaneous representation of individuals and variables of a data matrix. For Binary or Nominal data, Logistic biplots have been recently developed to extend the classical linear representations for continuous data. |
Data streams (streaming data) consist of transiently observed, evolving in time, multidimensional data sequences that challenge our computational and/or inferential capabilities. In this paper we propose user friendly approaches for robust monitoring of selected properties of unconditional and conditional distribution... |
A key issue in science is assessing robustness to data analysis choices, while avoiding selective reporting and providing valid inference. Specification Curve Analysis is a tool intended to prevent selective reporting. |
Clinical trials often collect data on multiple outcomes, such as overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and response to treatment (RT). In most cases, however, study designs only use primary outcome data for interim and final decision-making. |
The methods used so far for the analysis of time changes in population health suffer from the lack of causality in their design. This results in problems with their implementation and interpretation. |
The distribution function of a random distance in three dimensions is given and some new three-dimensional d2-tests of randomness are suggested. We show that our test statistics are not correlated with the usual test statistics and are therefore an other promising way to determine the quality of generated random numbe... |
Objective: To evaluate the relationship between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (also known as Variant of Concern 202012/01) and the risk of hospitalisation compared to diagnosis with wildtype SARS-CoV-2 variants. <br>Design: Retrospective cohort, analysed using stratified... |
The innovation school system in South Korea has been developed in response to the traditional high-pressure school system in South Korea, with a view to cultivating a bottom-up and student-centered educational culture. Despite its ambitious goals, questions have been raised about the success of the innovation school s... |
Commercial buildings account for approximately 35% of total US electricity consumption, of which nearly two-thirds is met by fossil fuels resulting in an adverse impact on the environment. This adverse impact can be mitigated by lowering energy consumption via control of occupant plugload usage in a closed-loop buildi... |
We propose a new class of weighted logrank tests (WLRT) that control the risk of concluding that a new drug is more efficacious than standard of care, when, in fact, it is uniformly inferior. Perhaps surprisingly, this risk is not controlled for WLRT in general. |
Current multidimensional measures of poverty continue to follow the traditional income poverty approach of using household rather than the individual as the unit of analysis. Household level measures are gender blind since they ignore intra-household differences in resource allocation which have been shown to differ a... |
We consider issues of equity in stochastic facility location models for healthcare applications. We explore how uncertainty exacerbates inequity and examine several equity measures that can be used for stochastic healthcare location modeling. |
A Bonus-Malus System (BMS) in insurance is a premium adjustment mechanism widely used in a posteriori ratemaking process to set the premium for the next contract period based on a policyholder's claim history. The current practice in BMS implementation relies on the assumption of independence between claim frequen... |
In this paper we introduce a novel Bayesian approach for linking multiple social networks in order to discover the same real world person having different accounts across networks. In particular, we develop a latent model that allow us to jointly characterize the network and linkage structures relying in both relation... |
We address the question of how to quantify the contributions of groups of players to team success. Our approach is based on spectral analysis, a technique from algebraic signal processing, which has several appealing features. |
In vaccine studies for infectious diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the frequency and type of contacts between study participants and infectious sources are among the most informative risk factors, but are often not adequately adjusted for in standard analyses. Such adjustment can improve the assess... |
Discussion of "A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable? " by B.B. McShane and A.J. Wyner [<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1104.4002" data-arxiv-id="1104.4002" class="link-https">arXiv:1104.4002</a>] |
The paper examines how reinsurance can be used to strike a balance between expected profit and VaR/CVaR risk. Conditions making truncated stop loss contracts optimal are derived, and it is argued that those are usually satisfied in practice. |
An accurate and timely assessment of wind speed and energy output allows an efficient planning and management of this resource on the power grid. Wind energy, especially at high resolution, calls for the development of nonlinear statistical models able to capture complex dependencies in space and time. |
Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the sequential procedure in which the estimated effect of an associated genetic marker ... |
Recent advancements in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning methods resulted in a significant increase of their popularity in the literature, including electricity price forecasting. Said methods cover a very broad spectrum, from decision trees, through random forests to various artificial neural... |
Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two competing propositions. These texts often describe experts presenting their LR values ... |
This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in uncertainty as percieved by <a href="http://agents.The" rel="external noopener nofollow" class="link-external link-http">this http URL</a> study focuses on the comparison between the perception of economic uncertainty by manufacturers and <a hr... |
Due to rapid expansion of urban areas in recent years, management of curbside parking has become increasingly important. To mitigate congestion, while meeting a city's diverse needs, performance-based pricing schemes have received a significant amount of attention. |
We present a new model for reliability analysis that is able to distinguish the latent internal vulnerability state of the equipment from the vulnerability caused by temporary external sources. Consider a wind farm where each turbine is running under the external effects of temperature, wind speed and direction, etc. |
Functional neuroimaging measures how the brain responds to complex stimuli. However, sample sizes are modest, noise is substantial, and stimuli are high dimensional. |
The use of cash bail as a mechanism for detaining defendants pre-trial is an often-criticized system that many have argued violates the presumption of "innocent until proven guilty. " Many studies have sought to understand both the long-term effects of cash bail's use and the disparate rate of cash bail ass... |
A typical gait analysis requires the examination of the motion of nine joint angles on the left-hand side and six joint angles on the right-hand side across multiple subjects. Due to the quantity and complexity of the data, it is useful to calculate the amount by which a subject's gait deviates from an average nor... |
Preferential attachment is often suggested to be the underlying mechanism of the growth of a network, largely due to that many real networks are, to a certain extent, scale-free. However, such attribution is usually made under debatable practices of determining scale-freeness and when only snapshots of the degree dist... |
We consider the so-called unfolding problem in experimental high energy physics, where the goal is to estimate the true spectrum of elementary particles given observations distorted by measurement error due to the limited resolution of a particle detector. This an important statistical inverse problem arising in the a... |
A wealth of epidemiological data suggests an association between mortality/morbidity from pulmonary and cardiovascular adverse events and air pollution, but uncertainty remains as to the extent implied by those associations although the abundance of the data. In this paper we describe an SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysi... |
The Alaskan landscape has undergone substantial changes in recent decades, most notably the expansion of shrubs and trees across the Arctic. We developed a dynamic statistical model to quantify the impact of climate change on the structural transformation of ecosystems using remotely sensed imagery. |
Life-expectancy is a complex outcome driven by genetic, socio-demographic, environmental and geographic factors. Increasing socio-economic and health disparities in the United States are propagating the longevity-gap, making it a cause for concern. |
Optimizing wheat variety selection for high performance in different environmental conditions is critical for reliable food production and stable incomes for growers. We employ a statistical machine learning framework utilizing Gaussian Process (GP) models to capture the effects of genetic and environmental factors on... |
High-dimensional classification has become an increasingly important problem. In this paper we propose a "Multivariate Adaptive Stochastic Search" (MASS) approach which first reduces the dimension of the data space and then applies a standard classification method to the reduced space. |
Developing spatio-temporal crime prediction models, and to a lesser extent, developing measures of accuracy and operational efficiency for them, has been an active area of research for almost two decades. Despite calls for rigorous and independent evaluations of model performance, such studies have been few and far be... |
Modeling human ratings data subject to raters' decision uncertainty is an attractive problem in applied statistics. In view of the complex interplay between emotion and decision making in rating processes, final raters' choices seldom reflect the true underlying raters' responses. |
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