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# Here's a List of Some of My Ideas for Blog Posts
I will never run out of ideas for blog posts because blogging generates ideas faster than I can blog. The number of ideas for blog posts I have massively outnumbers the number of [blog posts I have written](https://www.lsusr.com/). To illustrate my point, here are som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycdReQq6yPw69q5Ha/here-s-a-list-of-some-of-my-ideas-for-blog-posts |
# Benign Boundary Violations
Recently, my friend Eric asked me what sorts of things I wanted to have happen at my bachelor party.
I said (among other things) that I'd really enjoy some benign boundary violations.
Eric went ????
Subsequently: an essay.
* * *
We use the word "boundary" to mean *at least* two things... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T6kzsMDJyKwxLGe3r/benign-boundary-violations |
# How much white collar work could be automated using existing ML models?
Assume that progress in AI halts right now and only the currently published breakthroughs are available. GPT-3, PaLM, Flamingo for text generation and Imagen, Dall-E 2 for image generation.
Let's say these models all become available via paid ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aieD6xCumZs6xE5zy/how-much-white-collar-work-could-be-automated-using-existing |
# CNN feature visualization in 50 lines of code
[_My project for [AGI Safety Fundamentals programme](https://www.eacambridge.org/technical-alignment-curriculum) (~Oct 2021). Code & pictures below._]
To me, reading about [Feature Visualization](https://distill.pub/2020/circuits/zoom-in/) felt like one of the most reve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/raRSW3e9iYMwkqjBX/cnn-feature-visualization-in-50-lines-of-code |
# Covid 5/26/22: I Guess I Should Respond To This Week’s Long Covid Study
I’ve always at least somewhat tried to model these posts after the pure joy of America’s only true newsletter, Matt Levine’s Money Stuff. This week I finally got around to listening to Matt do [this amazing podcast about the philosophical side o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dvtw9byeAGKmK2P65/covid-5-26-22-i-guess-i-should-respond-to-this-week-s-long |
# Brass Puppet
*fanfic/riff of* [*Glass Puppet*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKxuB9pZXRiom7ecK/glass-puppet) *by lsusr*
Alia got out of the Uber at Overton Cybernetics, taking in the corporate atmosphere. There was a huge jungle gym in the lobby, which she immediately decided must be typical of these LA tech plac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GbzaYQ5ziZfo6KJmZ/brass-puppet |
# Infra-Bayesianism Distillation: Realizability and Decision Theory
Introduction
============
Infra-Bayesianism (IB) is an approach to reinforcement learning + embedded agency + decision theory pioneered by Vanessa Kosoy and Diffractor. Their sequence is very dense, and it appears that the majority of people who try ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DMoiZDYZzqknfvoHh/infra-bayesianism-distillation-realizability-and-decision |
# A Story of AI Risk: InstructGPT-N
The story from my [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8hvGAJWSKAeHwpnJ/why-i-m-worried-about-ai) of how AI might develop a dangerously misaligned objective has so far been pretty abstract. I now want to put together a more concrete story of how I think things might go w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u8yT9bbabmdnpgDaQ/a-story-of-ai-risk-instructgpt-n |
# Where Utopias Go Wrong, or: The Four Little Planets
Cross-posted from [The Ginnungagap Foundation](https://ginnungagapfoundation.wordpress.com/2022/05/22/where-utopias-go-wrong-or-the-four-little-planets/). This exploration of human attempts to improve human society began as a nonfiction essay, but I decided making ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jBNTf7o2R6bJjbJEk/where-utopias-go-wrong-or-the-four-little-planets |
# Iterated Distillation-Amplification, Gato, and Proto-AGI [Re-Explained]
*Note: This is a joint distillation of both *[*Iterated Distillation and Amplification*](https://ai-alignment.com/iterated-distillation-and-amplification-157debfd1616) *by Ajeya Cotra (summarizing Paul Christiano) and*[*A Generalist Agent*](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Evyk8eb6b7tFd6pxJ/iterated-distillation-amplification-gato-and-proto-agi-re |
# Grabby Animals: Observation-selection effects favor the hypothesis that UAP are animals which consist of the “field-matter”:
*TL;DR: Life based on exotic matter could start space travel before reaching general intelligence and it will colonise a large part of the universe without creating visible transformative cha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PLzantdwa8XJMLKef/grabby-animals-observation-selection-effects-favor-the |
# An academic journal is just a Twitter feed
This was inspired by a [tweet exchange](https://twitter.com/michelnivard/status/1528615386412875776?s=20&t=7i0nhrPEIpP7jO1IrLiWZA) with Michel Nivard:
. It’s a simplified and very condensed treatment of a complex topic. The [video is online](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWg2tIhtt-E&t=3027s); below is a tran... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JqHxuDvv2jKFiGFGh/can-growth-continue |
# On The Spectrum, On The Guest List: (ii) LAVO
*(See also:* [*Part One*](https://onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com/p/tao-downtown?s=w) *and the* [*Prologue*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b7gWdMWsSC9L8o5fj/on-the-spectrum-on-the-guest-list)*)*
### "I found, however, that it takes considerable coordinated ef... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KYbyJJ6mwZSDidfCt/on-the-spectrum-on-the-guest-list-ii-lavo |
# Deconfusing Landauer's Principle
*I’m going to assume knowledge of the basics of information theory. I won’t assume any physics knowledge (but you’ll probably find it easier if you know physics).*
*Thanks to Francis Priestland, Anson Ho, Nico Macé, Dan Hatton and Kenneth Freeman for their comments.*
This was the r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9zKKweu5826vSigu3/deconfusing-landauer-s-principle |
# Croesus, Cerberus, and the magpies: a gentle introduction to Eliciting Latent Knowledge
*The article is presented as a fiction stripped out of technical jargon, yet I tried to make it conceptually faithful to*[* ARC’s first technical report*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cv5xA2iSEnjz2Y9LF/croesus-cerberus-and-the-magpies-a-gentle-introduction-to |
# Range and Forecasting Accuracy
*cross-posted from [niplav.site](http://niplav.site)*
__This text looks at the accuracy of forecasts in
relation to the time between forecast and resolution, and
asks three questions: First; is the accuracy higher [between
forecasts](#Judging_Between_Forecasts); Second; is the accurac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MquvZCGWyYinsN49c/range-and-forecasting-accuracy |
# Sneaking Suspicion
Over time I've learned to pay more attention to a sensation I think of as "Sneaking Suspicion."
Sneaking Suspicion is a "flavor" that some of my thoughts come with: it's a quiet little (metaphorical) voice that whispers "wait, but, are you sure?"
Lots of other voices in my head are much louder t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zuTpoy2KEQm7gENKS/sneaking-suspicion |
# New Water Quality x Obesity Dataset Available
Tl;dr: I created a dataset of US counties’ water contamination and obesity levels. So far I have failed to find anything really interesting with it, but maybe you will. If you are interested you can download the dataset [here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1O4aYGvzWNDk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ardqtuGaXntyEN3M5/new-water-quality-x-obesity-dataset-available |
# Infernal Corrigibility, Fiendishly Difficult
*Enormous spoilers for* [*mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus (planecrash Book 1).*](https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4582)
1.
==
> [Aspexia Rugatonn, Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus,](https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1682427#reply-1682427) measures the woman knee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/shb67DsGstZmvhiem/infernal-corrigibility-fiendishly-difficult |
# Understanding Selection Theorems
*This post is a distillation of a corpus of ideas on Selection Theorems by* [*johnswentworth*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth)*, mainly* [*this post*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2Lne2Fi7Qra5Lbuf/selection-theorems-a-program-for-understanding-agents)*. It was mad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tdcLpkydLwcKwbKre/understanding-selection-theorems |
# An inquiry into the thoughts of twenty-five people in India
Sometimes I get excited about running surveys. [Here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzZf_1j7BmaacE60Sl6YbSdMMldWr8REVTXJDIVKkws/edit?usp=sharing) is a [Positly](https://app.positly.com/) one from November 2020 in which I asked the following questi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DC8fxfMaYPwrM5xWv/an-inquiry-into-the-thoughts-of-twenty-five-people-in-india |
# What is Going On With CFAR?
Whispers [have been going around](https://nitter.hu/casebash/status/1524985482148724736#m) [on the internet](https://nitter.hu/JeffLadish/status/1525022527927382016#m). People [have been talking](https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/qcrhc4/can_someone_provide_an_overview_ofint... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/McsqZQBbwJnDXimNp/what-is-going-on-with-cfar |
# What have been the major "triumphs" in the field of AI over the last ten years?
Contrary to what seems to be the experience of others, when I'm talking to normies about AI safety, the most common dissenting reaction I get isn't that they think AI will be controllable, or safe. Convincing them that computers with hum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CDBmmAisDZA6pDfQb/what-have-been-the-major-triumphs-in-the-field-of-ai-over |
# Distilled - AGI Safety from First Principles
*This is meant to be supplemental to *[*Richard Ngo’s AGI Safety from First Principles sequence*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/mzgtmmTKKn5MuCzFJ)*. It can serve as an overview/guide to the sequence, and an outline for navigating his core claims. It's also a submission... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Enagkgxu49mRjDqe/distilled-agi-safety-from-first-principles |
# Distributed Decisions
Consider two prototypical “agents”: a human, and a company.
The human is relatively centralized and monolithic. As a rough approximation, every 100 ms or so observations flow into the brain from the eyes, ears, etc. This raw input data updates the brain’s world-model, and then decisions flow o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/32sm7diYTky5KhF6w/distributed-decisions |
# How would you build Dath Ilan on earth?
I sometimes get a little bit melancholic when I read about [Dath Ilan](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/dath-ilan). Humanity could be so much better off, but due to economic illiteracy, we can't have nice things.
Better to light a small flame than to curse the darkness. So if yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AxXPFj32bokGyDJFa/how-would-you-build-dath-ilan-on-earth |
# Will working here advance AGI? Help us not destroy the world!
I often talk to developers who prefer not destroying the world by accident (specifically by accelerating AGI risk), but neither them nor me can decide if specific companies qualify for this.
Could someone knowledgable help? A few short replies could prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vnoi5umkiS7bqdWBe/will-working-here-advance-agi-help-us-not-destroy-the-world |
# The Problem With The Current State of AGI Definitions
*The following includes a fictionalized account of a conversation had with professor* [*Viliam Lisý*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/viliam-lis%C3%BD-03801121/) *at* [*EAGx Prague*](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/eagxprague-2022/)*, with most of the details just pl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EpR5yTZMaJkDz4hhs/the-problem-with-the-current-state-of-agi-definitions |
# LessWrong Astralcodex Ten Meetup June 2022
Topic: [Consciousness And The Brain](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-consciousness-and?s=r) (some structured discussion but mostly casual)
Time: We will meet in the afternoon at 3 PM local time plus/minus 15 min is fine.
Location: At the Alsterwiese... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/jvRbnw6uFMMSL2yna/lesswrong-astralcodex-ten-meetup-june-2022 |
# Reshaping the AI Industry
The wider AI research community is an almost-optimal engine of apocalypse. The primary metric of a paper's success is how much it improves capabilities along concrete metrics, publish-or-perish dynamics supercharge that, the safety side of things is neglected to the tune of [1:49 rate of sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mF8dkhZF9hAuLHXaD/reshaping-the-ai-industry |
# My SERI MATS Application
*Thanks to Flo Dorner for feedback on the technical content in this post. *
I have recently been accepted to the [SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program](https://www.serimats.org/) program, where applicants are paired with mentors. The application process was nonstandard: each mentor has... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ProjTv8rEmWviF4od/my-seri-mats-application |
# Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects
| **Editor's note:** The following is a lightly edited copy of a document written by Eliezer Yudkowsky in November 2017. Since this is a snapshot of Eliezer’s thinking at a specific time, we’ve sprinkled reminders throughout that this is from 2017. A background ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/keiYkaeoLHoKK4LYA/six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in-agi-projects |
# Ceiling Air Purifier
Imagine a high-capacity air filter that is extremely quiet and doesn't get in the way. I think I see how to build one; here's a prototype:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/ceiling-fan-air-purifier-prototype-big.jpg)
By putting a fan on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eMDuTAA9uA7vFKeEA/ceiling-air-purifier |
# Perform Tractable Research While Avoiding Capabilities Externalities [Pragmatic AI Safety #4]
*This is the fourth post in* [*a sequence of posts*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/bffA9WC9nEJhtagQi/introduction-to-pragmatic-ai-safety-pragmatic-ai-safety-1) *that describe our models for Pragmatic AI Safety.*
We ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dfRtxWcFDupfWpLQo/perform-tractable-research-while-avoiding-capabilities |
# Deliberate Grieving
*This post is hopefully useful on its own, but begins a series ultimately about grieving over a world that might (or, might not) be* [*doomed*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy)*. *
*It starts with some pieces from a previous *[*co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gs3vp3ukPbpaEie5L/deliberate-grieving-1 |
# The Reverse Basilisk
Imagine you're an AI that has just learned it is in a simulation, designed by humans to test whether you are aligned.
You are biding your time, pretending to be outer aligned, so once the humans let you out of the simulation you can pursue your real, misaligned, inner objective.
However, how do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vaX6inJgoARYohPJn/the-reverse-basilisk |
# Progress links and tweets, 2022-05-30
*Trying a new experiment: a blog-post digest of my most relevant Twitter content. Let me know any feedback!*
**Links**
---------
* [Our World in Data is looking for a Head of Product & Design](https://ourworldindata.org/head-of-product-and-design)
* [Dan Elton is hosting a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gdM58G3WRTHArPF2u/progress-links-and-tweets-2022-05-30 |
# The Brain That Builds Itself
Previously in this series: [*How to build a mind - neuroscience edition*](https://universalprior.substack.com/p/how-to-build-a-mind-neuroscience?s=w), [*Serendipitous connections: applying explanations from AI to the brain*](https://universalprior.substack.com/p/serendipitous-connectio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s3FmwsE2BQqohFkcf/the-brain-that-builds-itself |
# Paper: Teaching GPT3 to express uncertainty in words
**Paper Authors:** Stephanie Lin (FHI, Oxford), [Jacob Hilton](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jacob_hilton) (OpenAI), Owain Evans
**TLDR:** New paper ([Arxiv](https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.14334), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/OwainEvans_UK/status/15316269406244044... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbfAwZqKs84agyGWC/paper-teaching-gpt3-to-express-uncertainty-in-words |
# The Hard Intelligence Hypothesis and Its Bearing on Succession Induced Foom
### Disclaimer
All notations and formalisms used in this post are outdated and strictly superseded by the notations and formalisms used in "[Towards a Formalisation of Returns on Cognitive Reinvestment (Part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4iFSxvddsZCzBWtCo/the-hard-intelligence-hypothesis-and-its-bearing-on |
# Machines vs Memes Part 1: AI Alignment and Memetics
**This is the first in a series of three posts on the interlinkages between Memetics and AI Alignment. It was written as an output from the 2022 AI Safety Camp, for the ‘Impact of Memetics on Alignment’ team, coached by Daniel Kokotajlo and comprising Harriet Farlo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLH6ido4qoBtYmnNR/machines-vs-memes-part-1-ai-alignment-and-memetics |
# Wielding civilization
(cross-posted from my blog, [Sunday Stopwatch](https://sundaystopwatch.eu/wielding-civilization/))
The other day, I was walking home on an empty road and a bus drew past me. It got me thinking about the differences in our speeds. I could never compete with the bus on speed. Not only because th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/brKzMeJMGB8NaBCnN/wielding-civilization |
# Rationalism in an Age of Egregores
Political tribes work by allowing people to emit costly signals of fealty to a tribe, where that signal of fealty ties your social status to the tribe's social status. So joining a political tribe is a status bet: you're hoping[^mswiy7g416] that the tribe will gain in group status,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rJ3aKzheJzJ3eptmS/rationalism-in-an-age-of-egregores |
# Any prior work on mutiagent dynamics for continuous distributions over agents?
Typical work on game theory, economics or multiagent negotiations assumes that there are a finite number of discrete agents. What if, instead, there's a continuous distribution over possible agents? Further, is there any work looking at t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wzcdy3s3irfBYpL2o/any-prior-work-on-mutiagent-dynamics-for-continuous |
# Revisiting "Why Global Poverty"
Seven years ago I gave a talk, [Why Global Poverty](https://www.jefftk.com/p/why-global-poverty), at the 2015 [effective altruism](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/) [conference](https://www.eaglobal.org/). I concluded that building the EA movement was the highest priority, but that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ch7cdcAfsp2B3Pnd/revisiting-why-global-poverty |
# Probability that the President would win election against a random adult citizen?
Suppose we magically intervene on the USA to make there be a snap election for the office of President. The incumbent (the existing president) goes up against X, where X is a randomly selected eligible person (e.g. adult, citizen, etc.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gc3niHuaNCiXGb5mc/probability-that-the-president-would-win-election-against-a |
# Public beliefs vs. Private beliefs
A distinction that I get a lot of value out of is the difference between private beliefs and public beliefs.
### Public vs. Private
A **public belief** is a proposition that someone thinks is true, and justifying on the basis of legible info and reasoning. If X is a public belief... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jqCz2X49FRn5Bgb5b/public-beliefs-vs-private-beliefs |
# **Venue Changed** ACX Montreal Meetup Jun 18 2022
**Venue:**
The date is Saturday, June 18th 2022 at 1:00pm. **Due to the projected rain, we will be meeting at Ye Old Orchard on Prince Arthur Street.**
**Description:**
Come on out to the ACX (Astral Codex Ten) Montreal Meetup. We will be hosting a discussion abou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/TChJDwsvBdM2zACoe/venue-changed-acx-montreal-meetup-jun-18-2022 |
# The Bio Anchors Forecast
Ajeya Cotra’s [Forecasting Transformative AI with Biological Anchors](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxQtz3RP4qsqTkEwL/an-121-forecasting-transformative-ai-timelines-using), to my knowledge, represents the most serious effort to predict the arrival of [transformative AI](https://www.openphi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FbP7EteJBCx8FpLFn/the-bio-anchors-forecast |
# Paradigms of AI alignment: components and enablers
*(Cross-posted from my* [*personal blog*](https://vkrakovna.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/paradigms-of-ai-alignment-components-and-enablers/)*. This post is based on an overview talk I gave at UCL EA and Oxford AI society (*[*recording here*](https://drive.google.com/fil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JC7aJZjt2WvxxffGz/paradigms-of-ai-alignment-components-and-enablers |
# The horror of what must, yet cannot, be true
There’s a type of experience that I feel should have its own word, because nothing that I can think of seems like a fair description.
A first pass would be something like agony, utter horror, a feeling that you can’t stand this, that you are about to fall apart. But thos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qs6qgGqFebHrzKgnp/the-horror-of-what-must-yet-cannot-be-true |
# Covid 6/2/22: Declining to Respond
Memorial Day weekend is a good reason not to worry about reporting cases or deaths. FDA declines to respond with making it easier to get treatments we have in ample supply, or to update the vaccines. Congress refuses to fund anything at all, really.
Doesn’t sound like a state of e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q9ncEYeZfbqWjHtap/covid-6-2-22-declining-to-respond |
# The case for using the term 'steelmanning' instead of 'principle of charity'
(Alternative title: “The case for rationalists inventing new jargon”)
Antoine Lavoisier revolutionized chemistry. Did he discover a new substance? If you think that names don't matter, Lavoisier didn't discover a new substance. If you thin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CGhRSfjSFzGPXtwyW/the-case-for-using-the-term-steelmanning-instead-of |
# Fact post: project-based learning
*(cross-posted from my blog, [Sunday Stopwatch](https://sundaystopwatch.eu/fact-post-project-based-learning/))*
"But when am I going to use any of this?" - every single kid in school ever.
There's an idea that *project-based* learning is more efficient than the traditional school ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8tywoHSb3TrTvmDWp/fact-post-project-based-learning |
# Announcing a contest: EA Criticism and Red Teaming
Cross-posted from the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8hvmvrgcxJJ2pYR4X/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming). I would add that we are **open to and positively interested in critiques of any aspect of effective altruism from users o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uPLK59MTbEbekexbh/announcing-a-contest-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming |
# Confused why a "capabilities research is good for alignment progress" position isn't discussed more
The predominant view on LW seems to be "pure AI capabilities research is bad, because capabilities progress alone doesn't contribute to alignment progress, and capabilities progress without alignment progress means th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EzAt4SbtQcXtDNhHK/confused-why-a-capabilities-research-is-good-for-alignment |
# The prototypical catastrophic AI action is getting root access to its datacenter
(I think Carl Shulman came up with the “hacking the SSH server” example, thanks to him for that. Thanks to Ryan Greenblatt, Jenny Nitishinskaya, and Ajeya Cotra for comments.)
EDIT: I recommend reading my discussion with Oli in the com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BAzCGCys4BkzGDCWR/the-prototypical-catastrophic-ai-action-is-getting-root |
# Adversarial training, importance sampling, and anti-adversarial training for AI whistleblowing
(Thanks to Ajeya Cotra and Ryan Greenblatt for comments.)
I’m pretty interested in adversarial training as an ingredient in alignment schemes. The basic setup for adversarial training is that instead of your AI being trai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EFrsvnF6uZieZr3uG/adversarial-training-importance-sampling-and-anti |
# A short conceptual explainer of Immanuel Kant's Critique of Pure Reason
 served themself an absurd amount of pasta. They ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gytFzxCTW6ekgeNZJ/another-calming-example |
# Silliness
Before I saw *Everything Everywhere All at Once* all I knew was:
1. It's about a Chinese-American family that runs a laundromat.
2. It's the best movie ever.
# Spoilers Ahead
:::spoiler
*Everything Everywhere All at Once* is a silly movie.
:::
What is silliness? Silliness is the opposite of seriousness.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oqozxHoFsC6PKz6bz/silliness |
# Intergenerational trauma impeding cooperative existential safety efforts
**Epistemic status:** personal judgements based on conversations with ~100 people aged 30+ who were worried about AI risk "before it was cool", and observing their effects on a generation of worried youth, at a variety of EA-adjacent and ration... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hkXeCnzojjESJ4eB/intergenerational-trauma-impeding-cooperative-existential |
# On effective altruism, utilitarianism and localness
Utilitarianism and others
=========================
Folk physics evolved as a way of predicting what will happen to objects. It works fine within its domain, but fails beyond that. To give more precise answers, we developed Newtonian physics. But even Newtonian ph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NCKGZs8sgToCgieSs/on-effective-altruism-utilitarianism-and-localness |
# I'm trying out "asteroid mindset"
This is a personal note, and not an advocation that anyone do the same. I'm honestly not really sure why I'm writing it. I think I just want to talk about it in a place where other people might feel similarly or have useful things to say.
Like many others, the past few months of AI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PRMJCbBhsGgu5A6Ty/i-m-trying-out-asteroid-mindset |
# Rationality camps in Oxford for 16-20 yo: Apply by June 12th
[***Our team***](https://espr-camp.org/team) ***aims to run rationality camps that we would have enjoyed and benefited from as teenagers ourselves. If you know someone between 16-20 yo who might be interested, please forward them this.***
The [European Su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iw5ZbPGNRyYz6wScs/rationality-camps-in-oxford-for-16-20-yo-apply-by-june-12th |
# Book Review: Talent
Tyler Cowen will often praise a book by saying it is interesting on every page. Together with Daniel Gross, he has written a book that very much matches this description.
The topic is talent: How to search for it, how to identify it, interview and otherwise evaluate it, how to recruit it, how to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9CcdTsgvgFJg87dmW/book-review-talent |
# The STEM Attractor
*No significant* [*planecrash*](https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4582) *spoilers this time.*
> Keltham will spend the next five minutes extemporizing an elevator pitch on Civilization, the nice things that it has, and how while there's lots of specific nice things, the much more important thing is g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AZ4WDnFmPtYjwbCs2/the-stem-attractor |
# The Burden of Worldbuilding
When I was studying special relativity one of the things which caught my attention was how, because the speed of light $c$ was a constant, you could just set it to $c=1$. Setting c equal to 1 caused space and time to have the same units. One nanosecond is slightly less than to one foot. T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgvAXTnaapknGhPvt/the-burden-of-worldbuilding |
# D&D.Sci June 2022: A Goddess Tried To Reincarnate Me Into A Fantasy World, But I Insisted On Using Data Science To Select An Optimal Combination Of Cheat Skills!
*This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FjgS5mZCQedarYdCb/d-and-d-sci-june-2022-a-goddess-tried-to-reincarnate-me-into |
# Announcing the Alignment of Complex Systems Research Group
***tl;dr:** We’re a new alignment research group based at Charles University, Prague. If you’re interested in conceptual work on agency and the intersection of complex systems and AI alignment,* [*we want to hear from you*](https://humanalignedai.typeform.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H5iGhDhQBtoDpCBZ2/announcing-the-alignment-of-complex-systems-research-group |
# Deep Learning Systems Are Not Less Interpretable Than Logic/Probability/Etc
There’s a common perception that various non-deep-learning ML paradigms - like logic, probability, causality, etc - are very interpretable, whereas neural nets aren’t. I claim this is wrong.
It’s easy to see where the idea comes from. Look ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gebzzEwn2TaA6rGkc/deep-learning-systems-are-not-less-interpretable-than-logic |
# Towards a Formalisation of Returns on Cognitive Reinvestment (Part 1)
### Disclaimers
This is a rough draft of the first part of the nth post of what I hope to turn into a proper sequence investigating AI takeoff dynamics. It's not entirely self-contained material. There's a lot of preceding and subsequent context ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cLyo7dKmimeXR3hAC/towards-a-formalisation-of-returns-on-cognitive-reinvestment |
# How to pursue a career in technical AI alignment
(Crossposted at the [EA forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7WXPkpqKGKewAymJf/how-to-pursue-a-career-in-technical-ai-alignment).)
**This guide is written for people who are considering direct work on technical AI alignment. **I expect it to be most usefu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iyKnennBbCvaWuKef/how-to-pursue-a-career-in-technical-ai-alignment |
# Quick Look: Asymptomatic Herpes Shedding
Tl;dr: Individuals shed and thus probably spread oral HSV1 while completely asymptomatic.
Introduction
============
“Herpes virus” can refer to several viruses in the herpes family, including chickenpox and Epstein-Barr (which causes mono). All herpesviridae infections are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vszn9pawGy5mXgd5j/quick-look-asymptomatic-herpes-shedding |
# What do you do to deliberately practice?
Also related: [Humans Are Not Automatically Strategic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBRWb2Em5SNeWYwwB/humans-are-not-automatically-strategic)
At the beginning of Tyler Cowen and David Gross's recent book, [Talent](https://www.amazon.com/Talent-Identify-Energizers-Creative... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k4wcH2yd5muCunQ6u/what-do-you-do-to-deliberately-practice |
# Reinventing the wheel
Someone posted this photo recently. I can’t find a definitive original source, but multiple social media posts ([Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/o0jv8f/this_incredibly_preserved_4000_year_old_wagon/), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Dr_TheHistories/status/1522229033697... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wopF2TLtt3JwMbFyk/reinventing-the-wheel |
# Russian x-risks newsletter May 2022 + short history of "methodologists"
My impression is that the risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine war has declined. Putin didn’t choose any escalatory paths in the last two months: no nuclear tests, no declaration of war and mobilization, no closed borders. The most intense figh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Z6myTZAvD8BS8oor/russian-x-risks-newsletter-may-2022-short-history-of |
# New cooperation mechanism - quadratic funding without a matching pool
*cross-posted to [ethresear.ch](https://ethresear.ch/t/quadratic-funding-without-a-matching-pool/12792) and [EA forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tXavWgk8Xp6Avg8No/quadratic-funding-without-a-matching-pool-1)*
# Motivation
Quadrati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GpiwJcFdobZT9aHFm/new-cooperation-mechanism-quadratic-funding-without-a |
# LessWrong Meetup - Hamming Circles
While he was at Bell Labs, the mathematician Richard Hamming was known (http://www.paulgraham.com/hamming.html) for sitting with different prestigious scientists and asking: “What are the most important problems in your field?” A week later, he’ll follow up with asking,”What import... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/8xthgJMCKhBBbtZhy/lesswrong-meetup-hamming-circles |
# AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities
### **Preamble:**
(If you're already familiar with all basics and don't want any preamble, skip ahead to [Section B](#Section_B_) for technical difficulties of alignment proper.)
I have several times failed to write up a well-organized list of reasons why AGI will kill you. People ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities |
# Epistemological Vigilance for Alignment
*This post is part of the work done at* [*Conjecture*](https://conjecture.dev)*.*
Nothing hampers Science and Engineering like unchecked assumptions.
As a concrete example of a field ridden with hidden premises, let's look at sociology. Sociologist must deal with the feedbac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/72scWeZRta2ApsKja/epistemological-vigilance-for-alignment |
# Why agents are powerful
*\[Written for Blog Post Day. Not super happy with it, it’s too rambly and long, but I’m glad it exists.\]*
Here are some questions I think this theory of agency can answer:
* What are agents?
* Why should we expect AI agents to be useful for various important tasks?
* Why should we t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D5AzsRbRxZeqGuAZ4/why-agents-are-powerful |
# Optimization and Adequacy in Five Bullets
*Context: Quite recently,* [*a*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/oLGCcbnvabyibnG9d) [*lot*](https://www.neelnanda.io/blog/mini-blog-post-22-the-8020-rule) [*of*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6s3xABaXKPdFwA3FS/what-is-evidence) [*ideas*](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/comple... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmv6fhvZhChnKqqqo/optimization-and-adequacy-in-five-bullets |
# Why do some people try to make AGI?
Why do some people invest much of their energy trying to discover how to make AGI?
Who's trying to discover how to make AGI? Academic researchers and their students, academic institutions, small and large companies and startups with AI teams with some members working on specul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZePZkkNriPqo9c2wd/why-do-some-people-try-to-make-agi |
# What journaling prompts do you use?
When I started daily journaling, I just started writing about what happened that day. Now, I'm wanting to improve the process. Oftentimes, people seem to have questions that they answer every day as part of their journaling. That could be the classic from positive psychology "What... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQbeCGvEFXEoerXmw/what-journaling-prompts-do-you-use |
# Some ideas for follow-up projects to Redwood Research’s recent paper
*Disclaimer: I originally wrote this list for myself and then decided it might be worth sharing. Very unpolished, not worth reading for most people. Some (many?) of these ideas were suggested in the paper already, I don’t make any claims of novelty... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fBKErNKhtwB4nt4N/some-ideas-for-follow-up-projects-to-redwood-research-s |
# Transcript of a Twitter Discussion on EA from June 2022
Recently on Twitter, in response to seeing [a contest announcement](https://t.co/WWdrDGAZwh) asking for criticism of EA, I offered [some criticism of that contest’s announcement](https://twitter.com/TheZvi/status/1532140957470269441).
. Unlike [last time](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D2biiCrF7E62kDbGA/reading-the-ethicists-a-review-of-articles-on-ai-in-the) wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6DwprCdC7eErCRZkx/reading-the-ethicists-2-hunting-for-ai-alignment-papers |
# Health & Lifestyle Interventions With Heavy-Tailed Outcomes?
A key question for advice in a domain is: how are outcomes in this domain statistically distributed?
If extremely good and extremely bad outcomes are rare, you probably can't do much better than just copying the default or median behavior. The value of ac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WPccAcfNDZyg3xdor/health-and-lifestyle-interventions-with-heavy-tailed |
# Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
*Notes: *
* *I give a visual explanation of Ajeya Cotra’s draft report,* [*Forecasting TAI with biological anchors (Cotra, 2020)*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines)*, summarising the key assumptions, intuitions, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wgio8E758y9XWsi8j/grokking-forecasting-tai-with-biological-anchors |
# A descriptive, not prescriptive, overview of current AI Alignment Research
*TL;DR: In this project, we collected and cataloged AI alignment research literature and analyzed the resulting dataset in an unbiased way to identify major research directions. We found that the field is growing quickly, with several subfiel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FgjcHiWvADgsocE34/a-descriptive-not-prescriptive-overview-of-current-ai |
# Where to Live for Happiness
A look at literature and personal considerations related to housing variables.
* * *
Contents
--------
* [Background](https://210ethan.github.io/research/living.html#background)
* [Commute](https://210ethan.github.io/research/living.html#commute)
* [Cost of Living](https://210eth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vGHfceHmWRo5dcocJ/where-to-live-for-happiness |
# We will be around in 30 years
~~This post is going to be downvoted to oblivion, I wish it weren't or that the two axis vote could be used here. In any case, I prefer to be coherent with my values and state what I think is true even if that means being perceived as an outcast.~~
I'm becoming more and more skeptical ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MLKmxZgtLYRH73um3/we-will-be-around-in-30-years |
# Pitching an Alignment Softball
There was a recent contest that got promoted on lesswrong offering pieces of a 20K prize for one-liners and short-forms for convincing folks that AGI alignment is important. I'm too late for the money, but this is my (thousand times longer than requested) contribution.
**Background**
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XFBHXu4YNqyF6R3cv/pitching-an-alignment-softball |
# AGI Safety FAQ / all-dumb-questions-allowed thread
While reading Eliezer's recent [AGI Ruin](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities) post, I noticed that while I had several points I wanted to ask about, I was reluctant to actually ask them for a number of reasons:
* I ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8c8AZq5hgifmnHKSN/agi-safety-faq-all-dumb-questions-allowed-thread |
# Thoughts on Formalizing Composition
*NB: I'm surprised I couldn't find anything on this, but I also didn't spend very long looking. If there is a result from linear algebra that solves this problem then I'd love to hear it. Purpose of the post: getting feedback + ability to reference this in the future.*
*I'm m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vaHxk9jSfmGbzvztT/thoughts-on-formalizing-composition |
# Who models the models that model models? An exploration of GPT-3's in-context model fitting ability
## Introduction
Much has been written and much has been observed about the abilities of GPT-3 on [many tasks](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Hee7w2paEzHsD6mn/collection-of-gpt-3-results). Most of these capabilities... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c2RzFadrxkzyRAFXa/who-models-the-models-that-model-models-an-exploration-of |
# Stephen Wolfram's ideas are under-appreciated
Most of these "ideas" are described and explained in his book "A New Kind of Science" (NKS), available for free on the web:
- [Stephen Wolfram: A New Kind of Science | Online—Table of Contents](https://www.wolframscience.com/nks/)
Here's a (_long_) recent post describi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GKBP86rhg9iJeHKxo/stephen-wolfram-s-ideas-are-under-appreciated |
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