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# Dath Ilan vs. Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri: Pareto Improvements
*Epistemic status: Rambly; probably unimportant; just getting an idea that's stuck with me out there. Small dath-ilan-verse spoilers throughout, as well as spoilers for* [Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri *(1999)*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sid_Meier%27s_Alp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HFYivcm6WS4fuqtsc/dath-ilan-vs-sid-meier-s-alpha-centauri-pareto-improvements |
# Two Prosocial Rejection Norms
When I tell people that I'm shy, the universal response I get is "wow, you don't seem shy at all!"
Problem statement
-----------------
Pop culture psychology has a single concept for "debilitatingly reluctant to approach people", and it's called "shyness" or "social anxiety" and is ex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tajtA5nTnmmMupa7z/two-prosocial-rejection-norms |
# Facts Matter
There comes a time in the life of a student of philosophy when they start thinking facts aren’t important. What starts off as a passion to stamp out falsehoods and replace them with truths, morphs into an acute uninterest, and eventually disdain towards facts. I have suffered from this mental disorder f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9CQXiFTvM2Qf9W44/facts-matter |
# What is a training "step" vs. "episode" in machine learning?
My impression is that steps and episodes are both time periods in a training process, and that these terms are somewhat common in RL. An episode is larger than a step and usually contains many steps.
Is this correct?
Some related questions:
1. Are rewa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jXbrx7kfA4XHswfcu/what-is-a-training-step-vs-episode-in-machine-learning |
# Increasing Demandingness in EA
In thinking about what it means to lead a good life, people often struggle with the question of how much is enough: how much does our morality demand of us? People have given a wide range of answers to this question, but effective altruism has [historically used](https://slatestarcodex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DDzLDysBSSGZw4n3v/increasing-demandingness-in-ea |
# Prize for Alignment Research Tasks
Can AI systems substantially help with alignment research before transformative AI? People disagree.
[Ought](https://ought.org/) is collecting a dataset of alignment research tasks so that we can:
1. Make progress on the disagreement
2. Guide AI research towards helping with al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XLx3mpdi7HSp4rytF/prize-for-alignment-research-tasks |
# Saying no to the Appleman
Today I was overhearing an interesting conversation between my father and a door-to-door salesperson. It was interesting to witness the inability of my father to say no, and the tactics that the salesperson used. Nobody knew that I was listening.
My father tried to tell that salesperson no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RnoW32NN7zH2EiMgi/saying-no-to-the-appleman |
# Learning the smooth prior
_Most of this document is composed of thoughts from Geoffrey Irving (safety researcher at DeepMind) written on January 15th, 2021 on [Learning the Prior](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SL9mKhgdmDKXmxwE4/learning-the-prior)/[Imitative Generalization](https://www.alignmentforum.org/post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9x5mtYjHYfr4T7KLj/learning-the-smooth-prior |
# Salvage Epistemology
A funny thing happens with woo sometimes, in the rationality community. There's a frame that says: this is a mix of figurative stuff and dumb stuff, let's try to figure out what the figurative stuff is pointing at and salvage it. Let's call this "salvage epistemology". Unambiguous examples inclu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YmNAQrKcKcBmg6u9H/salvage-epistemology |
# [Linkpost] New multi-modal Deepmind model fusing Chinchilla with images and videos
Seems to be flying under the radar so far. Maybe because it looks more like incremental progress at first glance, similar to what, for example, [Aleph Alpha has done](https://medium.com/aleph-alpha-blog/the-end-of-the-era-imagenet-9f1... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SAavJdNHgeT3SB9rx/linkpost-new-multi-modal-deepmind-model-fusing-chinchilla |
# Note-Taking without Hidden Messages
Summary
-------
We can create two ANNs which use language 'notes' to explain their internal state. They will use language to communicate a mixture of language-as-understood-by-humans and additional, hidden information.
The form of the hidden information will vary between the tw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/czysbEDEsr9ijYeMd/note-taking-without-hidden-messages |
# Quick Thoughts on A.I. Governance
My friend [Devin Kalish](https://www.thinkingmuchbetter.com/authors/devin-kalish/) recently convinced me, at least to some extent, to focus on A.I. governance in the short-to-medium term, more than technical A.I. safety.
The argument that persuaded me was this:
> A key point of st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mosYvGsKcpxvG4sTA/quick-thoughts-on-a-i-governance |
# Nuclear Energy - Good but not the silver bullet we were hoping for
This article was written by [Samuel Scheuer](https://twitter.com/samuel_scheuer) and [Marius Hobbhahn](https://www.mariushobbhahn.com/aboutme/) (equal contribution). It was crossposted from [Marius' personal blog](https://www.mariushobbhahn.com/2022-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aJm9Ff2GfMbzDLCWM/nuclear-energy-good-but-not-the-silver-bullet-we-were-hoping |
# Why hasn't deep learning generated significant economic value yet?
Or has it, and it's just not highly publicized?
Five years ago, I was under the impression that most "machine learning" jobs were mostly just data cleaning, linear regression, working with regular data stores, and debugging stuff. Or, that was at le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MR6cJKy2LE6kF24B7/why-hasn-t-deep-learning-generated-significant-economic |
# Narrative Syncing
Partial attempt to make sense of: [On Doing the Improbable](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/st7DiQP23YQSxumCt/on-doing-the-improbable)
*Epistemic status: On my inside view, this seems like a clear and useful distinction that could use a short, shared term. Hasn’t been checked much by others. Some ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iprqfLaDLCGoJFeiZ/narrative-syncing |
# My Approach to Non-Literal Communication
*This is a linkpost for* [*this post*](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/non-literal-communication) *on my blog. It's primarily intended for my non-rationalist acquaintances, so regular LessWrong readers will likely be familiar with most of the concepts I mention. I'm cross-posti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GP7RcwXynKLJkHWmC/my-approach-to-non-literal-communication |
# How to be skeptical about meditation/Buddhism
Here is how I think we should approach the topic of meditation/Buddhism in the rationalist community. The short version is that a meaningful "yes" requires a credible [possibility of "no"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G5TwJ9BGxcgh5DsmQ/yes-requires-the-possibility-of-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XqpkCAHrtwBfLSSzk/how-to-be-skeptical-about-meditation-buddhism |
# How confident are we that there are no Extremely Obvious Aliens?
Robin Hanson's writing on [Grabby Aliens](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RrG8F9SsfpEk9P8yi/robin-hanson-s-grabby-aliens-model-explained-part-1) is interesting to me, since it seems to be one of the more sound attempts to apply mathematical reasoning t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gCN6tj47KdzoZgmvK/how-confident-are-we-that-there-are-no-extremely-obvious |
# Less Wrong Community Weekend 2022
**Less Wrong Community Weekend 2022!**
**When: **Friday 26th August - Monday 29th August 2022
**Where:** [jh-wannsee.de](http://jh-wannsee.de) (Berlin)
**The tickets:**
Regular ticket: 150€
Supporter ticket: 200/300/400€
Angel ticket: 75€
**We've closed applications now**
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/zrgcoXWWMuheCvzot/less-wrong-community-weekend-2022 |
# Shared Car: One Year In
We've been [sharing a car](https://www.jefftk.com/p/sharing-a-car) with a [housemate](https://www.jefftk.com/p/shared-house-setup) for one year now. This has worked really well. It's convenient being about to drive places, we can leave the car seats in (though we keep a backup set in case we ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9NuoiwEKg6YaEhqbv/shared-car-one-year-in |
# Six Months of ROSE
Six months ago, we launched the Guild Beta. Our goal was -- and is -- to produce people who are impressive in everyday life. We are interested in real-life effectiveness, not armchair philosophy. This attitude is why, when people join the Guild and embark on our Rank Advancement program, we have t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ryx4WseB5bEm65DWB/six-months-of-rose |
# Less Wrong Community Weekend 2022, open for application!
**Less Wrong Community Weekend 2022, open for application!**
* * *
**When: **Friday 26th August - Monday 29th August 2022
**Where:** [jh-wannsee.de](http://jh-wannsee.de/) (Berlin)
**The tickets:**
Regular ticket: 150€
Supporter ticket: 200/300/400€
Ang... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GqbAExPmD9EgGKhpX/less-wrong-community-weekend-2022-open-for-application |
# What DALL-E 2 can and cannot do
I got access to DALL-E 2 earlier this week, and have spent the last few days (probably adding up to dozens of hours) playing with it, with the goal of mapping out its performance in various areas – and, of course, ending up with some epic art.
Below, I've compiled a list of observat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKp6tBFStnsvrot5t/what-dall-e-2-can-and-cannot-do |
# [Linkpost] A conceptual framework for consciousness
PNAS Paper from April 29th that makes strides to solve the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/the-hard-problem-of-consciousness) by [dissolving](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/dissolving-the-question) it:
[**A conceptual framework for con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NMwGKTBZ9sTM4Morx/linkpost-a-conceptual-framework-for-consciousness |
# Squires
Last year, johnswentworth posted [*The Apprentice Experiment*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MrAfiomDNWCzxjei5/the-apprentice-experiment). I tried it out. It was [a disaster for me and most of my "apprentices"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQDEeB8c8w6dez3Gm/all-i-know-is-that-i-know-nothing). Since then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPk5ByprMEXzFamPF/squires |
# So has AI conquered Bridge ?
Bridge, like most card games, is a game of incomplete information. It is a game of many facets, most of which will have to remain unstated here. However the calculation of probabilities, and the constant revision of probabilities during play, is a key feature. Much the same can be said o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yHxmJch8dJoH6dwwz/so-has-ai-conquered-bridge |
# What Would It Cost to Build a World-Class Dredging Vessel in America?
I'm doing some research into questions surrounding the Foreign Dredge Act of 1906, and thought I'd experiment by throwing this out there.
For context, the 31 biggest dredging vessels were not built in America, and thus cannot be used in America b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pFEgHQfv3hQhTFfqZ/what-would-it-cost-to-build-a-world-class-dredging-vessel-in |
# My thoughts on nanotechnology strategy research as an EA cause area
_This is a cross-post from the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oqBJk2Ae3RBegtFfn/my-thoughts-on-nanotechnology-strategy-research-as-an-ea)._
**Two-sentence summary:** Advanced nanotechnology might arrive in the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pKndjzdCKn8Jbrywb/my-thoughts-on-nanotechnology-strategy-research-as-an-ea |
# Information security considerations for AI and the long term future
Summary
-------
This post is authored by Jeffrey Ladish, who works on the security team at [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/), and Lennart Heim, who works on AI Governance with [GovAI](https://www.governance.ai/) (more about us [at the end](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2oAxpRuadyjN2ERhe/information-security-considerations-for-ai-and-the-long-term |
# Predicting for charity
*Excerpted from* [*Above the Fold*](https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/p/manifold-for-good-manifold-for-all?s=r)*.*
[Prediction markets](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/prediction-markets) succeed when they require people to bet something they value, like money. But past attempts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPH39ciCFvzfuQXub/predicting-for-charity |
# Open & Welcome Thread - May 2022
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invite... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n6z8e5h8WrFCBu6ba/open-and-welcome-thread-may-2022 |
# Home Antigen Tests Aren’t Useful For Covid Screening
Epistemic status: I strongly believe this is the right conclusion given the available data. The best available data is not that good, and if better data comes out I reserve the right to chan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kC2tjb8Kfr2DwPQEt/home-antigen-tests-aren-t-useful-for-covid-screening |
# Norfolk Rationalists Weekly Wednesday Meetup @ Fair Grounds
Hello,
Welcome to round 2 of Norfolk Rationalists Weekly Wednesday meetups :)
**When:** We meet each Wednesday from 17:00-19:30 EDT.
**Where:** Fair Grounds, an excellent coffee shop located at 806 Baldwin Ave # 2, Norfolk, VA 23517. Do not park in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/khvu3G9LxHFGWRvRb/norfolk-rationalists-weekly-wednesday-meetup-fair-grounds-1 |
# Notes on Empathy
This post examines **empathy**, as part of [a sequence of posts about virtues](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xqgwpmwDYsn8osoje). It is mostly an exploration of what other people have learned about empathy, rather than my own research or opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SMziBSCT9fiz5yG3L/notes-on-empathy |
# Various Alignment Strategies (and how likely they are to work)
Note: the following essay is very much *my opinion. *Should you trust my opinion? Probably not too much. Instead, just record it as a data point of the form "this is what one person with a background in formal mathematics and cryptography who has been... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ibDJeoiDuxJkPwfa/various-alignment-strategies-and-how-likely-they-are-to-work |
# Negotiating Up and Down the Simulation Hierarchy: Why We Might Survive the Unaligned Singularity
*Another idea I picked up from Ryan Greenblatt. Epistemic status: My reconstruction of a surprising idea I encountered. I'm not* at all *confident that this works … but it's an interesting thought.*
[Clippy](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pRe34w3bqHqNeGHLc/negotiating-up-and-down-the-simulation-hierarchy-why-we |
# Improving productivity and wellbeing
_Epistemic status : A decently thought out synthesis of a few books and other sources mixed together with my own thinking. This is not professional work, does not reflect personal knowledge of an expert consensus, and was not yet fully tested.
For more on the limitations and flaw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EjTN4An4sEDeoPQrP/improving-productivity-and-wellbeing |
# What are the best examples of catastrophic resource shortages?
A while ago I [posed a question on Twitter](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1344466898507862016):
> What's an example of a significant resource that the world has actually run out of?
>
> Not a local, temporary shortage, or a resource that we ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D5QSxDta3pyPM8WQj/what-are-the-best-examples-of-catastrophic-resource |
# Introducing the ML Safety Scholars Program
Program Overview
----------------
The Machine Learning Safety Scholars program is a paid, 9-week summer program designed to help undergraduate students gain skills in machine learning with the aim of using those skills for empirical AI safety research in the future. Apply ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CphfDP4ynz3QQ4AKY/introducing-the-ml-safety-scholars-program |
# What is a Glowfic?
This is a description for first-time glowfic readers who are unfamiliar with the format.
A glowfic is a fictional story written by multiple authors who roleplay as the characters. A typical glowfic will appear on [glowfic.com](https://glowfic.com/) and looks like an internet forum where fictional... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EfCgkyH9rTmHLQhhz/what-is-a-glowfic |
# High-stakes alignment via adversarial training [Redwood Research report]
***(Update: We think the tone of this post was overly positive considering our somewhat weak results. You can read our latest post with more takeaways and followup results*** [***here***](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/n3LAgnHg6ashQK3fF/t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A9tJFJY7DsGTFKKkh/high-stakes-alignment-via-adversarial-training-redwood |
# Deriving Conditional Expected Utility from Pareto-Efficient Decisions
*This is a distillation of *[*this post*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GnMWifHzAknqJsLnv/request-for-distillation-coherence-of-distributed-decisions) *by John Wentworth.*
Introduction
------------
Suppose you're playing a poker game. You're a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r4qXrPQjJPSAMeyaC/deriving-conditional-expected-utility-from-pareto-efficient |
# An easy win for hard decisions
*This is a [crosspost](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GskGj9wCzLdP8WgmT/an-easy-win-for-hard-decisions) from the EA forum. It refers to EAs and the EA community a couple of times, but as it is essentially just about a nice norm and decision making, it seemed worth having her... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eabTh6WZeQqqGFXP3/an-easy-win-for-hard-decisions |
# What We Owe the Past
**TL;DR: We have ethical obligations not just towards people in the future, but also people in the past.**
Imagine the issue that you hold most dear, the issue that you have made your foremost cause, the issue that you have donated your most valuable resources (time, money, attention) to solvin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPiHkLKnmYguGTRAF/what-we-owe-the-past |
# Covid 5/5/22: A Lack of Care
China cares a lot about preventing Covid.
I haven’t written an additional China post because my sources have not turned up much additional information, and the situation does not seem to have dramatically changed, so I’m waiting until situation warrants an update. One development was ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MnkFcvkbyaMkf8cbi/covid-5-5-22-a-lack-of-care |
# Repeal the Foreign Dredge Act of 1906
There are a lot of ludicrously terrible government laws, regulations and policies across all the domains of life. My Covid posts have covered quite a lot of them.
Yet if I had to pick one policy that was the Platonic ideal of stupid, the thing that has almost zero upside and al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kWMkDoy3izRTobZFe/repeal-the-foreign-dredge-act-of-1906 |
# Starting too many projects, finishing none
Lately I have been starting a ton of projects, but dropping them once I lose interest. I come up with a cool paper idea, but next week I have new idea I'm excited about. Almost every idea I have requires extensive commitment to see return, so the short projects are wasted.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lwqb3zsPzTpMNNAvX/starting-too-many-projects-finishing-none |
# Chording Bass
When using my [foot pedals to play bass](https://www.jefftk.com/p/foot-chording-chords), I've primarily been using them to specify the current chord. I'll play the same pedal on each downbeat, switching when the current chord changes. There are a lot of things you can do with this, but on a real bass y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a3haDus2QgmyeHueR/chording-bass |
# Ethan Caballero on Private Scaling Progress
Some quotes from the latest episode of my podcast, The Inside View. You can access the audio, video and transcript [here](https://theinsideview.github.io/ethan). The key insight is that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg w.r.t. Large Language Models Scaling, and Ali... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8ucGzs4HgBw5YpKA/ethan-caballero-on-private-scaling-progress |
# Write posts business-like, not story-like
There are a number of posts here where people try to tell a story, to provide some sort of intuition pumping. Eliezer did it a lot and it worked for him. Assume you are not as good a writer, and stick to the business/academic writing format.
Start with a summary of your po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KqbyhJhSjaXWqQosp/write-posts-business-like-not-story-like |
# Moral Illusions
The interesting thing about optical illusions is that one may be aware of the illusion, yet, it does not go away.
It seems that the lines on the picture have different lengths even though one positively knows that they are exactly the same.
Now consider t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y2feJZFSjp8kJKZon/moral-illusions |
# Apply to the second iteration of the ML for Alignment Bootcamp (MLAB 2) in Berkeley [Aug 15 - Fri Sept 2]
Redwood Research is running another iteration of MLAB, our bootcamp aimed at helping people who are interested in AI alignment learn about machine learning, with a focus on ML skills and concepts that are releva... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ouxBRRzjxarTukMW/apply-to-the-second-iteration-of-the-ml-for-alignment |
# Getting GPT-3 to predict Metaculus questions
Can GPT-3 predict real world events? To answer this question I had GPT-3 predict the likelihood for every binary question ever resolved on Metaculus.
Predicting whether an event is likely or unlikely to occur, often boils down to using common sense. It doesn't take a gen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3cQgBN3v2Cxpe2kc/getting-gpt-3-to-predict-metaculus-questions |
# Your Utility Function is Your Utility Function
*Spoilers for* [*mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus (planecrash Book 1)*.](https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4582)
> The Watcher spoke on, then, about how most people have selfish and unselfish parts - not selfish and unselfish components in their utility functio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cN9RJSJQGyqqergmC/your-utility-function-is-your-utility-function |
# Open Problems in Negative Side Effect Minimization
$$$$Acknowledgments
===================
We want to thank Stuart Armstrong, Remmelt Ellen, David Lindner, Michal Pokorny, Achyuta Rajaram, Adam Shimi, and Alex Turner for helpful discussions and valuable feedback on earlier drafts of this post.
Fabian Schimpf and L... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pnAxcABq9GBDG5BNW/open-problems-in-negative-side-effect-minimization |
# The case for becoming a black-box investigator of language models
Interpretability research is sometimes described as neuroscience for ML models. Neuroscience is one approach to understanding how human brains work. But empirical psychology research is another approach. I think more people should engage in the analog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGaw4NqRha8hgx5ny/the-case-for-becoming-a-black-box-investigator-of-language |
# Contra Dance Mask Policy
After getting a [question](https://www.facebook.com/groups/51762543297/posts/10162215907623298/) in the BIDA Facebook group, I was curious what mask policies contra dances are using. I looked at the dances marked as active on [trycontra.com](https://www.trycontra.com/) and checked their webs... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h2rnNoMRPPWdoH3vh/contra-dance-mask-policy |
# Upgrading Imagination: The Promise Of DALL-E 2 As A Tool For Thought
\[Cross-posting this here, from my blog, Echoes and Chimes\]
When I was a kid, I’d spend the hours after school on the circular trampoline we had assembled in our backyard. I’d go into a kind of trance. Though my body would be engaged in jumping ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XozoiSq64mHvy2GJ4/upgrading-imagination-the-promise-of-dall-e-2-as-a-tool-for |
# Innovation, Stagnation, and Paratrooper Operations
I recently came across a very interesting book: ["When Failure Thrives: Institutions and the Evolution of Postwar Airborne Forces"](https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/WhenFailureThrives.pdf), by Dr. Marc DeVore. The short ve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2nxvdP8EjCXMKhzRG/innovation-stagnation-and-paratrooper-operations |
# Is there a convenient way to make "sealed" predictions?
Many people in our community claim to have ideas for how to build AGI, or other things, that they deem infohazardous and so don't want to publish. It would be great if they could publicly register these ideas in an encrypted way, so that later when their predic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DHKaRB2dKYHYNrBGj/is-there-a-convenient-way-to-make-sealed-predictions |
# D&D.Sci Divination: Nine Black Doves
*This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset. *
**STORY (skippable)**
=====================
The omens are troubling for we Romans this year... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cesr2yGoZ2y327qKQ/d-and-d-sci-divination-nine-black-doves |
# But What's Your *New Alignment Insight,* out of a Future-Textbook Paragraph?
*This is something I've been thinking about a good amount while considering my model of Eliezer's model of alignment. After tweaking it a bunch, it sure looks like a messy retread of* [*much of what Richard says here;*](https://www.lesswron... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LxofChCRcQMBE6D3E/but-what-s-your-new-alignment-insight-out-of-a-future |
# Quote request: "if even the Sun requires proof"
I remember reading a quote, I think from the Buddhist or some other Eastern tradition, about how if you've argued yourself into believing the Sun doesn't exist, you've gone horribly wrong. It went something like "Nothing can be known, if even the Sun requires proof". I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2eyoRDSLanLvojstP/quote-request-if-even-the-sun-requires-proof |
# scipy.optimize.curve_fit Is Awesome
*cross-posted from [niplav.github.io](https://niplav.github.io/)*
I recently learned about the python function `scipy.optimize.curve_fit`,
and I'm really happy I did.
It fulfills a need I didn't know I'd always had, but never
fulfilled: I often have a dataset and a function wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tTACHjbQ9W5Ha4GnF/scipy-optimize-curve_fit-is-awesome |
# Minimum Viable Alignment
What is the largest possible target we could have for aligned AGI?
That is, instead of creating a great and prosperous future, is it possible that we can find an easier path to align an AGI by aiming for the entire set of 'this-is-fine' kind of futures?
For example, a future where all new ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wLSBrTCmRQCCtAssz/minimum-viable-alignment |
# Sealed predictions thread
Want to publicly register predictions or other statements [without yet revealing what they say](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DHKaRB2dKYHYNrBGj/is-there-a-convenient-way-to-make-sealed-predictions)? Do so here. The advantage of commenting here (in addition to, say, your Shortform) is that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2uroahLGmryqjizzE/sealed-predictions-thread |
# The glorious energy boost I've gotten by abstaining from coffee
Over the years, I've sometimes heard people rave about how they cut out caffeine (or just coffee) and have way more energy. My reaction has typically been to feel kind of dismissive / not really believe them / assume that means that they need to sleep m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nf3HQgb7f7iEfC85D/the-glorious-energy-boost-i-ve-gotten-by-abstaining-from |
# Algorithmic formalization of FDT?
I occasionally see a question like "what would FDT recommend in ....?" and I am puzzled that there is no formal algorithm to answer it. Instead humans ask other humans, and the answers are often different and subject to interpretation. This is rather disconcerting. For comparison, y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nw5MwgJBGXSWqaKag/algorithmic-formalization-of-fdt |
# Video and Transcript of Presentation on Existential Risk from Power-Seeking AI
*In March 2022, I gave a presentation about existential risk from power-seeking AI, as part a* [*lecture series*](https://www.harvardea.org/agathon) *hosted by Harvard Effective Altruism. The presentation summarized my* [*report*](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/76etTtAiKtZGGzkmi/video-and-transcript-of-presentation-on-existential-risk |
# Elementary Infra-Bayesianism
*TL;DR: I got nerd-sniped into working through some rather technical work in AI Safety. Here's my best guess of what is going on. Imprecise probabilities for handling catastrophic downside risk.*
**Short summary**: I apply the updating equation from Infra-Bayesianism to a concrete examp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9uj2Mto9CNdWZudyq/elementary-infra-bayesianism |
# Demonstrating MWI by interfering human simulations
TLDR: A demonstration that, given some reasonable assumptions, a quantum superposition of a brain creates an exponential number of independent consciousnesses, and each independent consciousness experiences reality as classical.
# The demonstration
I'm not going t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZtWHfjjR8KvaGsLsB/demonstrating-mwi-by-interfering-human-simulations |
# Long COVID risk: How to maintain an up to date risk assessment so we can go back to normal life?
Despite Zvi's "Long Long Covid Post" concluding in February that Long COVID risk among healthy, vaccinated individuals is low enough that it's worth pretty much going back to normal life, I haven't felt comfortable doing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4z3FBfmEHmqnz3NEY/long-covid-risk-how-to-maintain-an-up-to-date-risk |
# An Alternative Interpretation of Physics
1\. Physics With Minimal Assumptions
------------------------------------
“I am this thing”. That is perhaps the most basic fact I know of. It is not a conclusion based on reasoning, but something much more instinctive: “I know how it ***feels.***“. For me, the only subjecti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XEWjGcFLjwNgSao8t/an-alternative-interpretation-of-physics |
# Updating Utility Functions
This post will be about AIs that “refine” their utility function over time, and how it might be possible to construct such systems without giving them undesirable properties. The discussion relates to [corrigibility](https://arbital.com/p/corrigibility/), [value learning](https://www.align... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NjYdGP59Krhie4WBp/updating-utility-functions |
# Microphone on Electric Mandolin
A large portion of what I'm doing when I play rhythm mandolin is percussive: the sound of the pick hitting the strings. After listening back to the [comparison between my electric and acoustic mandolins](https://www.jefftk.com/p/acoustic-vs-electric-mandolin), this is the thing I find... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BmFAjZuNHnPpYZoy7/microphone-on-electric-mandolin |
# Jobs: Help scale up LM alignment research at NYU
[NYU is hiring alignment-interested researchers!](https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1r-ZsBQK07OHohLa9c9qCoLHZVV80EvnIOfpsdfVk0eg/edit?fromCopy=true)
* I'll be working on setting up a CHAI-inspired research center at NYU that'll focus on empirical alignment wor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5MHxjWgwWEoMrPXj8/jobs-help-scale-up-lm-alignment-research-at-nyu |
# Introduction to Pragmatic AI Safety [Pragmatic AI Safety #1]
*This is the introduction to a sequence of posts that describe our models for Pragmatic AI Safety. Thanks to Oliver Zhang, Mantas Mazeika, Scott Emmons, Neel Nanda, Cameron Berg, Michael Chen, Vael Gates, Joe Kwon, Jacob Steinhardt, Steven Basart, and Jaco... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bffA9WC9nEJhtagQi/introduction-to-pragmatic-ai-safety-pragmatic-ai-safety-1 |
# A Bird's Eye View of the ML Field [Pragmatic AI Safety #2]
*This is the second post in* [*a sequence of posts*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/bffA9WC9nEJhtagQi/introduction-to-pragmatic-ai-safety-pragmatic-ai-safety-1) *that describe our models for Pragmatic AI Safety.*
The internal dynamics of the ML field ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AtfQFj8umeyBBkkxa/a-bird-s-eye-view-of-the-ml-field-pragmatic-ai-safety-2 |
# AI Alignment YouTube Playlists
I created two AI Alignment playlists on Youtube. One that is slide-heavy and the other is not. I separated them into two playlists for two reasons.
1. It’s useful to separate for a dataset I am working on.
2. Media is easier to consume when you don’t have to pay attention to the sli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tas3QZfKm4bdnAWsZ/ai-alignment-youtube-playlists |
# Conditions for mathematical equivalence of Stochastic Gradient Descent and Natural Selection
_Many thanks to Peter Barnett, my alpha interlocutor for the first version of the proof presented, and draft reader._
Analogies are often drawn between natural selection and gradient descent (and other training procedures f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5XbBm6gkuSdMJy9DT/conditions-for-mathematical-equivalence-of-stochastic |
# LessWrong Now Has Dark Mode
One of the more commonly requested features on LessWrong is a dark mode. Well, now we have it! To activate, hover over the user-menu in the top right, open the Themes submenu, and click on Dark Mode there.
Notes:
* This feature is beta, by which I mean there may be aesthetic problems,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWqFy8wESHbxNod7i/lesswrong-now-has-dark-mode |
# Dath Ilani Rule of Law
*Minor spoilers for* [*mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus (planecrash Book 1).*](https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4582)
*Also, be warned: citation links in this post link to a NSFW subthread in the story.*
Criminal Law and Dath Ilan
==========================
> When Keltham was very ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E7XGYmvRSigjHX8uz/dath-ilani-rule-of-law |
# Examining Armstrong's category of generalized models
*This post is my capstone project for the AI Safety Fundamentals programme. I would like to thank the organizers of the programme for putting together the resources and community which have broadened my horizons in the field. Thanks to my cohort and facilitator @s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HtzFAYhSfu6B92ooX/examining-armstrong-s-category-of-generalized-models |
# The limits of AI safety via debate
The limits of AI safety via debate
I recently participated in the [AGI safety fundamentals program](https://www.eacambridge.org/agi-safety-fundamentals) and this is my cornerstone project. During our readings of AI safety via debate ([blog](https://openai.com/blog/debate/), [paper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kguLeJTt6LnGuYX4E/the-limits-of-ai-safety-via-debate |
# Ceiling Fan Air Filter
[Filter cubes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corsi%E2%80%93Rosenthal_Box) are a great way to cheaply filter a lot of air, but they're bulky and noisy. [Elevating](https://www.jefftk.com/p/elevated-air-purifier-cubes) them can get them out of the way if you have a high enough ceiling, but it's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tN88Yt7dmNnYobdw3/ceiling-fan-air-filter |
# Crises Don't Need Your Software
About a month ago, I was invited to contribute to a group looking to help Ukrainian refugees in Poland. The group consisted of volunteers, including some people from the rationalist community, who knew they wanted to help, and were searching for high impact ways to do so, likely throu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DknkyFac7JakE6Kgd/crises-don-t-need-your-software |
# Stuff I might do if I had covid
In case anyone wants a rough and likely inaccurate guide to what I might do if I had covid to mitigate it, I looked into this a bit recently and wrote notes. It’s probably better than if one’s plan was to do less than a few hours of research, but is likely flawed all over the place an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b2MvqatvuhsNBcKbr/stuff-i-might-do-if-i-had-covid |
# Fighting in various places for a really long time
The first time someone raved to me about seeing Everything Everywhere All at Once, I thought they were actually suggesting I see everything everywhere all at once, and I was briefly excited by the implication that this exhilarating possibility was somehow on the tabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHvQtjggBdGPHjD6m/fighting-in-various-places-for-a-really-long-time |
# An Inside View of AI Alignment
I started to take AI Alignment seriously around early 2020. I’d been interested in AI and machine learning in particular since 2014 or so, taking several online ML courses in high school and implementing some simple models for various projects. I leaned into the same niche in college, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6NSsKbqF8QuKgMti/an-inside-view-of-ai-alignment |
# ProjectLawful.com: Eliezer's latest story, past 1M words
So if you read Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, and thought...
"You know, HPMOR is pretty good so far as it goes; but Harry is much too cautious and doesn't have nearly enough manic momentum, his rationality lectures aren't long enough, and all of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SA9hDewwsYgnuscae/projectlawful-com-eliezer-s-latest-story-past-1m-words |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 14. Controlled AGI
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
14.1 Post summary / Table of contents
=====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)*.*
[Post ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QpHewJvZJFaQYuLwH/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-14-controlled-agi |
# LessWrong Berlin Meetup - Street Epistemology
After a long pause of LessWrong meetups with a workshop part, we are back to doing exercises as part of our LessWrong meetups. For this meetup, I invited George Lanetz to present Street Epistomology. In his words:
"Your rationality is my business". We need to have conve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/uRstH6i2TdE3HNRf9/lesswrong-berlin-meetup-street-epistemology |
# Positive outcomes under an unaligned AGI takeover
*The following is a hypothetical story about a surprisingly positive outcome to an unaligned AGI takeover. This is not meant to be realistic, but merely semi-plausible, in order to show that the orthogonality thesis does not necessarily lead to defection against huma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wt89KzBWPiHm6XkD7/positive-outcomes-under-an-unaligned-agi-takeover |
# What's keeping concerned capabilities gain researchers from leaving the field?
My guess is that there are at least a few capabilities gain researchers who're concerned about the impact their work will have. My guess is that at least a few of these would like to leave, but haven't.
My question is: where are these p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rLGvadCChaSKksaJR/what-s-keeping-concerned-capabilities-gain-researchers-from |
# How would public media outlets need to be governed to cover all political views?
As one of their questions Reporters without Borders [asks](https://rsf.org/sites/default/files/medias/file/2022/04/RSF_Index_Questionnaire_2022_EN.pdf) for their World Press Freedom Index among others:
> Do public media outlets cover a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zbchxGzdDkXWzDdRm/how-would-public-media-outlets-need-to-be-governed-to-cover |
# Covid 5/12/22: Other Priorities
There is zero funding for dealing even with the current pandemic, let alone preventing the next one. The FDA not only is in no hurry to approve a vaccine for children, the new highlight is its focus on creating a dire shortage of specialty baby formula. Covid doesn’t kill children, me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TKDpHEr5EApzF6mqx/covid-5-12-22-other-priorities |
# "A Generalist Agent": New DeepMind Publication
Linkpost for ["A Generalist Agent"](https://www.deepmind.com/publications/a-generalist-agent)
Abstract:
"Inspired by progress in large-scale language modeling, we apply a similar approach towards building a
single generalist agent beyond the realm of text outputs. The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5onEtjNEhqcfX3LXG/a-generalist-agent-new-deepmind-publication |
# Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
[From the abstract](https://www.deepmind.com/publications/a-generalist-agent), emphasis mine:
> The agent, which we refer to as Gato, works as a multi-modal, multi-task, multi-embodiment generalist policy. **The same network with the same weights can play Atari, caption images, cha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xxvKhjpcTAJwvtbWM/deepmind-s-gato-generalist-agent |
# The Last Paperclip
Note: this short story is an attempt to respond to [this](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ibDJeoiDuxJkPwfa/various-alignment-strategies-and-how-likely-they-are-to-work?commentId=Yoq95fqh6sevgz9xJ) comment. Specifically, this story is an attempt to steelman the claim that super-intelligent AI is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/igxS7re8nfihpbTo5/the-last-paperclip |
# Introduction to the sequence: Interpretability Research for the Most Important Century
This is the first post in a sequence exploring the argument that interpretability is a high-leverage research activity for solving the AI alignment problem.
This post contains important background context for the rest of the sequ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MygKP4iwdRL24eNsY/introduction-to-the-sequence-interpretability-research-for-1 |
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