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# Contrast Pairs Drive the Empirical Performance of Contrast Consistent Search (CCS)
tl;dr
=====
[Contrast consistent search (CCS)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.03827)[^wnplf5vji3o] is a method by Burns *et al.* that consists of two parts:
1. Generate contrast pairs by adding pseudolabels to an unlabelled dataset.
2.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9vwekjD6xyuePX7Zr/contrast-pairs-drive-the-empirical-performance-of-contrast |
# To Predict What Happens, Ask What Happens
When predicting conditional probability of catastrophe from loss of human control over AGI, there are many distinct cruxes. This essay does not attempt a complete case, or the most generally convincing case, or addressing the most common cruxes.
Instead these are my best gu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v4c7eBHESey8Deyra/to-predict-what-happens-ask-what-happens |
# Types and Degrees of Alignment
What would it mean to solve the alignment problem sufficiently to avoid catastrophe? What do people even mean when they talk about alignment?
The term is not used consistently. What would we want or need it to mean? How difficult and expensive will it be to figure out alignment of dif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZKeNbGBf36ZEgDEKD/types-and-degrees-of-alignment |
# Stages of Survival
This post outlines [a fake framework](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wDP4ZWYLNj7MGXWiW/in-praise-of-fake-frameworks) for thinking about how we might navigate the future. I found it useful to my thinking, hopefully you will find it useful as well.
Whether or not we build AGI, one of five things m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/awCkniyLANaBmnm9S/stages-of-survival |
# The Crux List
[The Crux List](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-crux-list). The original text is included as a backup, but it formats much better on Substack, and I haven’t yet had time to re-format it for WordPress or LessWrong.
### Introduction
This post is a highly incomplete list of questions where I either ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/agv26XfXfKfKiKwDm/the-crux-list |
# Improving Mathematical Reasoning with-Process Supervision
> **Alignment impact**
> --------------------
>
> Process supervision has several alignment advantages over outcome supervision. It directly rewards the model for following an aligned chain-of-thought, since each step in the process receives precise supervis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NgKvSk89zTdPfYK2s/improving-mathematical-reasoning-with-process-supervision |
# Intent-aligned AI systems deplete human agency: the need for agency foundations research in AI safety
This is a summary of our recent preprint [Intent-aligned AI systems deplete human agency: the need for agency foundations research in AI safety](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.19223) and submission to the [Open Philanth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dDDi9bZm6ELSXTJd9/intent-aligned-ai-systems-deplete-human-agency-the-need-for |
# LessWrong Community Weekend 2023 Updates: Keynote Speaker Malcolm Ocean, Remaining Tickets and More
***Update:** Phase 2 closed on June 12th and results will be sent out on June 21st. You can still submit applications as there will be a small number of tickets remaining (including last minute cancellations) we will ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DjdaZ6Gp9HQ93hn56/lesswrong-community-weekend-2023-updates-keynote-speaker |
# Full Automation is Unlikely and Unnecessary for Explosive Growth
Summary
-------
Forecasts of explosive growth from advanced AI often assume that AI will fully automate human labor. But there are a variety of compelling objections to this assumption. For example, regulation could prevent the automation of some task... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sW8CG7TiPFG5Bxwjs/full-automation-is-unlikely-and-unnecessary-for-explosive |
# Shutdown-Seeking AI
This is a draft written by [Simon Goldstein](https://www.simondgoldstein.com/), associate professor at the Dianoia Institute of Philosophy at ACU, and [Pamela Robinson](https://pamela-robinson.com/), postdoctoral research fellow at the Australian National University, as part of a series of papers... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FgsoWSACQfyyaB5s7/shutdown-seeking-ai |
# Dancing to Positional Calling
In a contra dance when only some of the dancers should take an action, the caller typically identifies them by role: "Robins start a Hey for Four" (or "Ladies" with gendered calling). In positional calling, instead, the caller doesn't use role terms: "pass right shoulders to start a Hey... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZA77fL3pAgicRJ8Ai/dancing-to-positional-calling |
# An explanation of decision theories
\[Epistemic status: I may have gotten some things wrong so please point out any errors. I also papered over a lot of technical details in favor of presenting my intuitions. A lot of this is me thinking out loud. If you already know a lot about decision theory or want the gory deta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RiYhceiQy4w8JQAsn/an-explanation-of-decision-theories |
# Re: The Crux List
Really enjoyed reading Zvi's [Crux List](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/agv26XfXfKfKiKwDm/the-crux-list).
One really important takeaway of lists like this is "we [don't know](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns) what we don't know". Namely, P(DOOM) depends intimately on a w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q5j2nDSwqehnoHuCm/re-the-crux-list |
# "LLMs Don't Have a Coherent Model of the World" - What it Means, Why it Matters
There are a variety of problems with LLMs, and I want to argue that they are all somewhat related, and are related to the idea of having a model of the world. This seems useful both as a conceptual model for thinking about why AI is uns... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wkws2WgraeN8AYJjv/llms-don-t-have-a-coherent-model-of-the-world-what-it-means |
# Short Remark on the (subjective) mathematical 'naturalness' of the Nanda--Lieberum addition modulo 113 algorithm
These remarks are basically me just wanting to get my thoughts down after a Twitter exchange on this subject. I've not spent much time on this post and it's certainly plausible that I've gotten things wro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tdENX8dzdro8PXAzP/short-remark-on-the-subjective-mathematical-naturalness-of |
# Work dumber not smarter
_Is the 12th virtue incompatible with everything else?_
Working smarter is about prioritizing, planning, allocating time & energy, strategizing, and results. See eg [Humans are not automatically strategic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBRWb2Em5SNeWYwwB/humans-are-not-automatically-strateg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xioRstBoXcz6tFHW2/work-dumber-not-smarter |
# Yes, avoiding extinction from AI *is* an urgent priority: a response to Seth Lazar, Jeremy Howard, and Arvind Narayanan.
The following is a post I published on my personal blog in response to [criticisms published by Seth Lazar, Jeremy Howard, and Arvind Narayanan of Center for AI Safety's recent statement on AI exi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSGMeKgPLrnMyPJYy/yes-avoiding-extinction-from-ai-is-an-urgent-priority-a |
# Probably tell your friends when they make big mistakes
**Big mistakes = Doing something that is actively harmful or useless by their own lights and values, i.e. doesn't help them achieve their life goals.** (Not: Doing something that isn't in line with *your* values and goals.)
A lot of people think that others in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ewvtvvj3QmKR5TDhn/probably-tell-your-friends-when-they-make-big-mistakes |
# [Request]: Use "Epilogenics" instead of "Eugenics" in most circumstances
I am conditionally in favor of human genetic augmentation. In particular, I think embryo selection for intelligence, health, happiness and other positive traits is desirable. When I bring this up with people, one of the most frequent questions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8pj8kMxotFGqn4mp/request-use-epilogenics-instead-of-eugenics-in-most |
# Don’t waste your time meditating on meditation retreats!
Do "Emotional Work Retreats" instead!
**TLDR;**
If your goal is therapeutic progress - the kind of progress you also hope to get from going to a therapist, i.e. become happier long term, get rid of unhealthy emotional patterns, and improve your relationships... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ewBrPPAvNjvrDqkGE/don-t-waste-your-time-meditating-on-meditation-retreats |
# Change my mind: Veganism entails trade-offs, and health is one of the axes
Introduction
============
To me, it is obvious that veganism introduces challenges to most people. Solving the challenges is possible for most but not all people, and often requires trade-offs that may or may not be worth it. I’ve seen effe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wiz4eKi5fsomRsMbx/change-my-mind-veganism-entails-trade-offs-and-health-is-one |
# Uncertainty about the future does not imply that AGI will go well
Subtitle: A partial defense of high-confidence AGI doom predictions.
Introduction
============
Consider these two kinds of accident scenarios:
1. In a **default-success** scenario, accidents are rare. For example, modern aviation is very safe than... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x5aTiznxJ4o9EGdj9/uncertainty-about-the-future-does-not-imply-that-agi-will-go |
# Progress links and tweets, 2023-06-01
**Richard Rhodes, illegal floor plans, and cyborg insects**
-----------------------------------------------------------
**Announcements/opportunities**
* [Plymouth Street can help top talent get an O-1 or EB-1 visa](https://twitter.com/minney_cat/status/166215054635737907... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vqbwtCNDgKF45GZxN/progress-links-and-tweets-2023-06-01 |
# Yudkowsky vs Hanson on FOOM: Whose Predictions Were Better?
# TLDR
Starting in 2008, Robin Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky debated the likelihood of FOOM: a *rapid* and *localized* increase in some AI's intelligence that occurs because an AI recursively improves itself.
As Yudkowsky summarizes his position:
> I thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gGSvwd62TJAxxhcGh/yudkowsky-vs-hanson-on-foom-whose-predictions-were-better |
# Experimental Fat Loss
With the end of the world nigh, and a public panic about to start, this seems an ideal time to worry about weight loss and the obesity epidemic.
Coincidentally, for the first time in my life, I'm getting fat.
SlimeMoldTimeMold's 'Chemical Hunger' series
[https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gFBuxhydiwfbyhAN8/experimental-fat-loss |
# self-improvement-executors are not goal-maximizers
Agents are [adaptation-executors](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/adaptation-executors) with adaptations that accomplish goals, not goal-maximizers. Understanding agents as maximizing goals is a simplification used by humans to make them easier to understand. This is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o3dJsJ3tYTGLnp4bY/self-improvement-executors-are-not-goal-maximizers |
# Things I Learned by Spending Five Thousand Hours In Non-EA Charities
From late 2020 to last month, I worked at grassroots-level non-profits in operational roles. Over that time, I’ve seen surprisingly effective deployments of strategies that were counter-intuitive to my EA and rationalist sensibilities.
I spent 6 m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ejxwraMP5ye7Bgmpm/things-i-learned-by-spending-five-thousand-hours-in-non-ea |
# Four levels of understanding decision theory
*\[Update 2023-06-09: See* [*this comment*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sx47Wi2x8c4mqkYAC/four-levels-of-understanding-decision-theory?commentId=GuXTDRcdFjDmnqCMv) *for some caveats / motivations / context about this post.\]*
There are multiple levels on which an age... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sx47Wi2x8c4mqkYAC/four-levels-of-understanding-decision-theory |
# AI #14: A Very Good Sentence
“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
[That is the entire text of the one-line open letter](https://www.safe.ai/statement-on-ai-risk) signed this week by what one could reasonably c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B7duehMp2mSvffu2T/ai-14-a-very-good-sentence |
# Outreach success: Intro to AI risk that has been successful
"I think of my life now as two states of being: before reading your doc and after." - A message I got after sharing this article at work.
When I first started reading about alignment, I wished there was one place that fully laid out the case of AI risk fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Djo44WtZK6kK4K5/outreach-success-intro-to-ai-risk-that-has-been-successful |
# Think carefully before calling RL policies "agents"
I think agentic systems represent most of AI extinction risk. I want to think clearly about what training procedures produce agentic systems. Unfortunately, the field of reinforcement learning has a convention of calling its trained artifacts "agents." This termin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rmfjo4Wmtgq8qa2B7/think-carefully-before-calling-rl-policies-agents |
# Winning doesn't need to flow through increases in rationality
*(My first LessWrong post. Written quickly, in the spirit of putting more of my ideas out there and seeing how they meet reality.) *
**Consider that there may be more rewarding pursuits than marginally increasing your rationality toolbox.**
I get the se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLggy5L4G8wuogY7P/winning-doesn-t-need-to-flow-through-increases-in |
# The Control Problem: Unsolved or Unsolvable?
**td;lr**
No control method exists to safely contain the global feedback effects of self-sufficient learning machinery. What if this control problem turns out to be an unsolvable problem?
Where are we two decades into resolving to solve a seemingly impossible probl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xp6n2MG5vQkPpFEBH/the-control-problem-unsolved-or-unsolvable |
# Limits to Learning: Rethinking AGI’s Path to Dominance
*Homo sapiens* is a real puzzle. Many species on very different branches of the tree of life—corvids, parrots, elephants, dolphins, cephalopods and non-human primates—have converged to very similar limits of intelligence. Yet humans, despite being extremely simi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/obHYt5qxqA2ttnwJs/limits-to-learning-rethinking-agi-s-path-to-dominance |
# [Replication] Conjecture's Sparse Coding in Toy Models
Summary
-------
In the post [Taking features out of superposition with sparse autoencoders](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z6QQJbtpkEAX3Aojj/interim-research-report-taking-features-out-of-superposition), Lee Sharkey, Beren Millidge and Dan Braun (formerly at C... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E8imxQo96WgDCMxkA/replication-conjecture-s-sparse-coding-in-toy-models |
# A mind needn't be curious to reap the benefits of curiosity
Context: Stating a point that is obvious in local circles, but that I regularly run into among economists and longevity researchers and more general technologists and on twitter and so on.
---
Short version: To learn things, one sometimes needs to behave ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y4rrwkopoigaNGxmS/a-mind-needn-t-be-curious-to-reap-the-benefits-of-curiosity |
# Advice for Entering AI Safety Research
I know that other posts already exist giving advice for people who want to get more involved in AI safety research, and they are worth reading. But here I want to (1) add my two cents and (2) put in writing some of the things I find myself talking about often.
The intended au... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HCZ6feW2EGXuiwuid/advice-for-entering-ai-safety-research |
# Thoughts on Dancing the Whole Dance: Positional Calling for Contra
After [yesterday's post](https://www.jefftk.com/p/dancing-to-positional-calling) on my experience dancing to positional calling, [Louise Siddons](http://louisesiddons.com/) recommended I read her booklet, [Dancing the Whole Dance: Positional Calling ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NLCAi9dgGHsh597oD/thoughts-on-dancing-the-whole-dance-positional-calling-for |
# How could AIs 'see' each other's source code?
I'm NOT confused about 'how could AIs send each other a link to their Git repo?'.
I'm confused as to what other info would convince an AI that any particular source code is what another AI is running.
How could any running system prove to another what source code it's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gm5DpjTbAXxojK7qf/how-could-ais-see-each-other-s-source-code |
# Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting
Introduction
------------
I recently released “[Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04388)” with collaborators Julian Michael, Ethan Perez, and Sam Bowman. For a summ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6eKL9wDqeiELbKPDj/unfaithful-explanations-in-chain-of-thought-prompting |
# The AGI Race Between the US and China Doesn’t Exist.
*When I write “China”, I refer to the political and economic entity, the People’s Republic of China, founded in 1949.*
Leading US AI companies are currently rushing towards developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) by building and training increasingly pow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z4MDDwwnWKnv2ZzdK/the-agi-race-between-the-us-and-china-doesn-t-exist |
# Upcoming AI regulations are likely to make for an unsafer world
*TL;DR: I am rather confident that involving governments in regulating AI development will make the world less safe, not more, because governments are basically incompetent and the representatives are beholden to special interests.*
Governments can do ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g2aeGupbr3XC68tLJ/upcoming-ai-regulations-are-likely-to-make-for-an-unsafer |
# Terry Tao is hosting an "AI to Assist Mathematical Reasoning" workshop
The workshop is on 12-14 June, following a [previous workshop](https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2022/10/21/upcoming-workshop-on-machine-assisted-proofs-at-ipam/) on "Machine-assisted proofs" held last Feb.
Maybe an opportunity to nerd snipe him an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5EK9WTv6x8htkGXW/terry-tao-is-hosting-an-ai-to-assist-mathematical-reasoning |
# Announcing AISafety.info's Write-a-thon (June 16-18) and Second Distillation Fellowship (July 3-October 2)
[Stampy’s](https://stampy.ai) [AI Safety Info](https://aisafety.info) is an interactive FAQ s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PgnGZAJxvgReuiJjZ/announcing-aisafety-info-s-write-a-thon-june-16-18-and |
# A Double-Feature on The Extropians
Link-post for two pieces I just wrote on the Extropians.
The Extropians were an online group of techno-optimist transhumanist libertarians active in the 90s who influence a lot of online intellectual culture today. Prominent members include Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nick Bostrom, Rob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kNtBiyyGnjceNAkQK/a-double-feature-on-the-extropians |
# Optimization happens inside the mind, not in the world
Optimization happens inside the mind (map), not in the world (territory). Reflecting about this made me noticeably less confused about how powerful AI agents capable of model-based planning and self-modification will act.
My model of future AI
-----------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WcAZW2Hg27Fu5F22q/optimization-happens-inside-the-mind-not-in-the-world |
# [Link Post] Bytes Are All You Need: Transformers Operating Directly On File Bytes
>Modern deep learning approaches usually transform inputs into a modality-specific form. For example, the most common deep learning approach to image classification involves decoding image file bytes into an RGB tensor which is passe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x4awhoLHAgahFMiJM/link-post-bytes-are-all-you-need-transformers-operating |
# A Disneyland Without Children
The spaceship swung into orbit around the blue-grey planet with a final burn of its engines. Compared to the distance they had travelled, the world, now only some four hundred kilometres below and filling up one hemisphere of the sky, was practically within reach. But Alice was no less ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pk9mofif2jWbc6Tv3/fiction-a-disneyland-without-children |
# How to Think About Activation Patching
*This is an excerpt from my post on attribution patching, that I think is of more general interest, around how to think about the technique of activation patching in mechanistic interpretability, and what it can and cannot teach us. You don't need to know what attribution patch... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xh85KbTFhbCz7taD4/how-to-think-about-activation-patching |
# One implementation of regulatory GPU restrictions
Some observations:
1. ML-relevant hardware supply is bottlenecked at several points.
2. One company, NVIDIA, is currently responsible for most purchasable hardware.[^d30g7esjqk]
3. NVIDIA already implements [driver licensing](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/drivers/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TjLRJY7gCxDxwM3Cu/one-implementation-of-regulatory-gpu-restrictions |
# Nature < Nurture for AIs
This is a cross-link for [https://scottviteri.github.io/post/nature-v-nurture-for-ais.](https://scottviteri.github.io/post/nature-v-nurture-for-ais)
Let's imagine a hypothetical scenario where an AI is somehow trained in a way that is analogous to a human childhood in all of the relevant wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7eH2wBbYctWEY2dKq/nature-less-than-nurture-for-ais |
# The ants and the grasshopper
One winter a grasshopper, starving and frail, approaches a colony of ants drying out their grain in the sun, to ask for food.
“Did you not store up food during the summer?” the ants ask.
“No”, says the grasshopper. “I lost track of time, because I was singing and dancing all summer lon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GJgudfEvNx8oeyffH/the-ants-and-the-grasshopper |
# Meta-conversation shouldn't be taboo
I often find myself in a conversation that feels like it's falling into some sort of failure mode. Some examples:
1. A few years ago in some job as a programmer, I remember being in this meeting. We were trying to figure out the architecture of some feature that was important a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zWWHRHGZD4YE6JAu/meta-conversation-shouldn-t-be-taboo |
# Ages Survey: Results
A few weeks ago after the [community meeting with the Department of Children and Families](https://www.jefftk.com/p/dcf-event-notes) I decided to run a survey to learn more about the range of ages at which people generally thought kids might be ready to do various activities without supervision.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JndzKjeZ9CCfYHBGm/ages-survey-results |
# Monthly Shorts 8/21
Arts
----
Highlights from [the stock phrase to start a fairytale in other languages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Once_upon_a_time#Other_languages)
> Back in the days when it was still of help to wish for a thing —German
>
> Cross seven countries, through the sea of Operencia, through the gla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FPP92bvAPnc9DsND2/monthly-shorts-8-21 |
# We Are Less Wrong than E. T. Jaynes on Loss Functions in Human Society
These paragraphs from E. T. Jaynes's _Probability Theory: The Logic of Science_ (in §13.12.2, "Loss functions in human society") are _fascinating_ from the perspective of a regular reader of this website:
> We note the sharp contrast between the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/65hFPABegiB9uGFiC/we-are-less-wrong-than-e-t-jaynes-on-loss-functions-in-human |
# 5/23
AI
--
Congress had [a hearing](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_ACcQxJIsg&t=3179s) on AI: Gary Marcus, Sam Altman, and Christina Montgomery.
My takeaways:
1. Congress sees what happened with social media regulation as a mistake driven by a failure to regulate adequately. There is bipartisan unhappiness on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NGZyrKaxpWW6R9gcg/5-23-1 |
# Some Thoughts on Conditional Forecasts – Lessons from the 2020 Election
***Disclaimer**: This post was written as part of my job at Open Phil, but it hasn’t been reviewed closely by anyone else at Open Phil, and the opinions and recommendations I put forward are mine only and don’t reflect Open Phil’s views.*
In ea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ErqHGD8PwgDkwoiKA/some-thoughts-on-conditional-forecasts-lessons-from-the-2020 |
# Wildfire of strategicness
It may not be feasible to make a mind that makes achievable many difficult goals in diverse domains, without the mind also itself having large and increasing effects on the world. That is, it may not be feasible to make a system that [strongly possibilizes without strongly actualizing](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HdA2nDKQ5FJtnTuxP/wildfire-of-strategicness |
# What I've been reading, June 2023
A monthly feature. As usual, recent blog posts and news stories are omitted from this; you can find them in my [links digests](https://rootsofprogress.org/writing#twitter-digest). In all quotes below, any emphasis in bold was added by me.
**Books**
---------
**Thomas S. Ashton,** ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LPQuHab4RWaZ6dpJX/what-i-ve-been-reading-june-2023 |
# Tutor-GPT & Pedagogical Reasoning
*This post hopes foster discussion about latent heutagogic potential in human+LLM collaboration and share some early results with the LessWrong community.*
*Spontaneous emergence of theory of mind capabilities in large language models hints at a host of overhung possibilities relev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hfuqzaPGaPA2PwFPM/tutor-gpt-and-pedagogical-reasoning |
# The (local) unit of intelligence is FLOPs
*\[Crossposting again on *[*Lesswrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/) *and*[*Windowsontheory*](https://windowsontheory.org/)*, with the hope I am not overstaying my welcome in LW.\]*
Wealth can be measured by *dollars*. This is not a perfect measurement: it’s hard to accou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f8joCrfQemEc3aCk8/the-local-unit-of-intelligence-is-flops |
# AISafety.info "How can I help?" FAQ
AI existential risk has been in the news recently. A lot of people have gotten interested in the problem and some want to know what they can do to help. Additionally, other existing routes to getting advice are getting overwhelmed, like [AI Safety Support](https://www.aisafetysupp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nBzTxJmLdebiqhY8q/aisafety-info-how-can-i-help-faq |
# True Rejection Challenges
**Summary: **Find something you wish you did but don’t. List why you don’t do it. If someone finds a way to do it that avoids those issues, give it a try!
**Tags**: Small, Investment
**Purpose**: Understanding your true rejection to a statement is a useful skill. Practice it on an applica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MH6c8pp64ivHbeagQ/true-rejection-challenges |
# Andrew Ng wants to have a conversation about extinction risk from AI
Andrew Ng writes:
> I'd like to have a real conversation about whether AI is a risk for human extinction. Honestly, I don't get how AI poses this risk. What are your thoughts? And, who do you think has a thoughtful perspective on how AI poses this... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8qq72ABNmY6WDNF2p/andrew-ng-wants-to-have-a-conversation-about-extinction-risk |
# Contra Mask Status
As we get into summer and covid levels continue to [fall](https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm), a lot of contra dances are rethinking their approaches to masking. At this point contra dances are the only places I go that require masks, though they're also the closest I get to large numbers ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7HuPohMPJ6trKiWdp/contra-mask-status |
# Algorithmic Improvement Is Probably Faster Than Scaling Now
The Story as of ~4 Years Ago
----------------------------
Back in 2020, a group at OpenAI [ran a conceptually simple test](https://openai.com/research/ai-and-efficiency) to quantify how much AI progress was attributable to algorithmic improvements. They to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CfpAXccrBvWpQw9xj/algorithmic-improvement-is-probably-faster-than-scaling-now |
# Intelligence Officials Say U.S. Has Retrieved Craft of Non-Human Origin
Epistemic status: Big if true/I am clearly an idiot for even posting this.
Some apparently real journalists have been approached by (& approached) several intelligence officials, some tasked specifically with investigating UFOs, who claim that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oY9HNicqGGihymnzk/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-craft-of-non |
# Rishi to outline his vision for Britain to take the world lead in policing AI threats when he meets Joe Biden
Key points from the article:
> - Rishi Sunak wants to launch a global AI watchdog and host international summit
> - He will discuss the proposals with Joe Biden during talks at the White House
> - The idea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9g5dtLx3KTTvJ6Fb8/rishi-to-outline-his-vision-for-britain-to-take-the-world |
# Is the 10% Giving What We Can Pledge Core to EA's Reputation?
Introduction
============
> I don't think the 10% norm forms a major part of EA's public perception, so I don't believe tweaking it would make any difference. - RobertJones
>
> 10% effective donations has brand recognition and is a nice round number, as... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EsLYyzzcsnXe4LWed/is-the-10-giving-what-we-can-pledge-core-to-ea-s-reputation |
# [Linkpost] Given Extinction Worries, Why Don’t AI Researchers Quit? Well, Several Reasons
I've written a blog post for a lay audience, explaining some of the reasons that AI researchers who are concerned about extinction risk have for continuing to work on AI research, despite their worries
The apparent contradicti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yhxLHuhfpznpfuuqo/linkpost-given-extinction-worries-why-don-t-ai-researchers |
# Open Thread: June 2023 (Inline Reacts!)
For this month's open thread, we're experimenting with Inline Reacts as part of the bigger reacts experiment. In addition to being able to [react](http://lesswrong.com/posts/ByqKwsYK6rH6AYNDY/reacts-now-enabled-on-100-of-posts-though-still-just) to a whole comment, you can app... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oTaku2oCFC8ya5F3L/open-thread-june-2023-inline-reacts |
# The Sharp Right Turn: sudden deceptive alignment as a convergent goal
Sharp right turn: after reaching some level, all AIs will suddenly become very nice and look like they are aligned, because they will understand that looking unaligned is punishable and bad for their (nefarious) end goals. World takeover will happ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hicfd4C5ffrtEaTbF/the-sharp-right-turn-sudden-deceptive-alignment-as-a |
# Agentic Mess (A Failure Story)
**This story is also available** [**as a YouTube video**](https://youtu.be/6edrFdkCEUE)**.**
A network of specialized open-source agents emerges
---------------------------------------------------
Developed by open-source communities, “agentic” AI systems like AutoGPT and BabyAGI beg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LyJAFBuuEfd4kxgsw/agentic-mess-a-failure-story |
# Stampy's AI Safety Info - New Distillations #3 [May 2023]
Hey! This is another update from the distillers at the [AI Safety Info](https://aisafety.info/) website (and its more playful clone [Stampy](https://stampy.ai/)).
 for 2023 is coming to an end. During our closing weekend, June 15-18, all teams will give a presentation of what they have been doing.
Parts of the AISC closing weekend is open to anyone who is interested, and part of the program... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/9mC8u95iM6GB4yADM/aisc-end-of-program-presentations |
# AISN #9: Statement on Extinction Risks, Competitive Pressures, and When Will AI Reach Human-Level?
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [here](https://newsletter.safe.ai/subsc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/szdfHcArvEraibXsz/aisn-9-statement-on-extinction-risks-competitive-pressures |
# Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely
([Crossposted](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ARkbWch5RMsj6xP5p/transformative-agi-by-2043-is-less-than-1-likely) to the EA forum)
Abstract
--------
The linked paper is our submission to the [Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest](https://www.openphilanthropy.o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DgzdLzDGsqoRXhCK7/transformative-agi-by-2043-is-less-than-1-likely |
# Monthly Roundup #7: June 2023
This month’s roundup of non-AI things, with the good, the bad and the uncondoned, along with several additional individual topics. I’m also trying out running some blog-focused surveys near the end, right before the jokes.
#### Bad News
[RIP Doyle Brunson](https://www.washingtonpost.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FAS559f6F3n7mrSiC/monthly-roundup-7-june-2023 |
# The Base Rate Times, news through prediction markets
**Introduction**
================
**I made a news site based on prediction markets**
--------------------------------------------------
The Base Rate Times is a nascent news site that incorporates prediction markets prominently into its coverage.
Please see cur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfQ3Ls45WnYuguqfc/the-base-rate-times-news-through-prediction-markets |
# A Playbook for AI Risk Reduction (focused on misaligned AI)
I sometimes hear people asking: “What is the plan for avoiding a catastrophe from misaligned AI?”
This post gives my working answer to that question - sort of. Rather than a plan, I tend to think of a playbook.^[1](#fn1)^
* A _plan_ connotes something l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fbk9H6ipfybHyqjrp/a-playbook-for-ai-risk-reduction-focused-on-misaligned-ai |
# Society Library seeking contributions for canonical AI Safety debate map
*(I'm not directly affiliated, just a fan)*
The Society Library curates arguments, claims, and evidence on high-impact social issues. They've begun work on a library for AI safety resources, and are seeking contributions from experts on papers... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e88zMqzFurKGGBWrK/society-library-seeking-contributions-for-canonical-ai |
# Why I am not a longtermist (May 2022)
*\[Posting verbatim my blog post from a year ago since it might be relevant to this audience, and I hope it could generate a good discussion. As far as I can tell, cross-posting old material is OK here, though do let me know if not, and I will delete it. I do not intend to cross... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2bCFBcrqB7ohE2feE/why-i-am-not-a-longtermist-may-2022 |
# [Job Ad] SERI MATS is (still) hiring for our summer program
**TL;DR:** [SERI MATS](https://www.serimats.org/) is looking for a Community Manager, 1-3 Scholar Support Specialists, and 4 operations staff to support our next cohort of AI safety researchers. [Apply](https://airtable.com/shrn7rmHWssw0PC7J) by Jun 12 to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/upgmud7Y6YemWjYpC/job-ad-seri-mats-is-still-hiring-for-our-summer-program |
# How to Slow AI Development
I [previously
said](https://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/04/05/pause-ai-development/):
> I see little hope of a good agreement to pause AI development unless
> leading AI researchers agree that a pause is needed, and help write
> the rules. Even with that kind of expert h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qmctHGtt9Subbmpy9/how-to-slow-ai-development-1 |
# Cultivate an obsession with the object level
In this third section of the sequence I focus on how to leverage positive motivations—in particular curiosity, agency, and determination—to do great work. While all of these are valuable, they’ll suit different people to different degrees. In particular, I think of nerds ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4M5pb2NoypmEzhpbz/cultivate-an-obsession-with-the-object-level |
# Launching Lightspeed Grants (Apply by July 6th)
[Lightspeed Grants](https://lightspeedgrants.org/) provides fast funding for projects that help humanity flourish among the stars. The application is min... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xQ4ajnzavSgbYiko2/launching-lightspeed-grants-apply-by-july-6th |
# Article Summary: Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor
This post summarizes the new paper [Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor](https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3514094.3534146), authored by Benjamin Bucknal and Shiri Dori-Hacohen. The paper diverges from the tradi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4K8Dw8PoCiPKCexXt/article-summary-current-and-near-term-ai-as-a-potential |
# Elon talked with senior Chinese leadership about AI X-risk
As part of his Twitter Spaces with RJK jr. Elon said (Youtube-based transcript):
> On my recent trip to China, with the senior leadership there, we had I think some very productive discussions on artificial intelligence risks and the the need for some overs... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lcxe6f2N6SALuoDH2/elon-talked-with-senior-chinese-leadership-about-ai-x-risk |
# An Exercise to Build Intuitions on AGI Risk
*Epistemic status: confident that the underlying idea is useful; less confident about the details, though they're straightforward enough that I expect they're mostly in the right direction.*
**TLDR: **This post describes a [pre-mortem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKujHaJd2ckAKAevo/an-exercise-to-build-intuitions-on-agi-risk |
# A moral backlash against AI will probably slow down AGI development
*Note 1 : This was posted to EA Forum on May 31* [*here*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/veR4W92bZsTsGgS3D/a-moral-backlash-against-ai-will-probably-slow-down-agi)*, as a submission for the 2023 Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews contest, du... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gypixgtJQRDhZssPB/a-moral-backlash-against-ai-will-probably-slow-down-agi |
# LEAst-squares Concept Erasure (LEACE)
"Ever wanted to mindwipe an LLM?
Our method, LEAst-squares Concept Erasure (LEACE), provably erases all linearly-encoded information about a concept from neural net activations. It does so surgically, inflicting minimal damage to other concepts.
...
LEACE has a closed-form so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fEYyLjGpR7R8of6of/least-squares-concept-erasure-leace |
# Progress links and tweets, 2023-06-07
**Announcements & opportunities**
---------------------------------
* [UK Great Stagnation summit in July, apply to attend](https://civicfuture.org/event/the-great-stagnation-summit-2023/) (via [@s8mb](https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1664314999571984384))
* [Help Bryan Bish... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/REaA4YYuAJnNvhMrt/progress-links-and-tweets-2023-06-07 |
# What will GPT-2030 look like?
GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. Surprises in machine learning are not restricted to GPT-4: I was [previously surprised](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/) by Minerva’s mathemati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WZXqNYbJhtidjRXSi/what-will-gpt-2030-look-like |
# [Linkpost] Scaling laws for language encoding models in fMRI
*This is a linkpost for* [*https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.11863*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.11863)
> Representations from transformer-based unidirectional language models are known to be effective at predicting brain responses to natural language. However, m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iXbPe9EAxScuimsGh/linkpost-scaling-laws-for-language-encoding-models-in-fmri |
# AI #15: The Principle of Charity
The sky is not blue. Not today, not in New York City. At least it’s now mostly white, yesterday it was orange. Even indoors, everyone is coughing and our heads don’t feel right. I can’t think fully straight. Life comes at you fast.
Thus, I’m going with what I have, and then mostly t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2jJ2Rdqo4wCrXhMeA/ai-15-the-principle-of-charity |
# Question for Prediction Market people: where is the money supposed to come from?
I've only watched some prediction market news from the outside, so forgive my basic question, but are prediction markets supposed to bring in money besides having new entrants bring in cash?
I've often seen prediction markets compared ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QcLskRR2AQ2puE82b/question-for-prediction-market-people-where-is-the-money |
# Biomimetic alignment: Alignment between animal genes and animal brains as a model for alignment between humans and AI systems
*(Note: this was also published on EA Forum, May 26, 2023,* [*here*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tQxLfkvFGWBhJ2KzR/biomimetic-alignment-alignment-between-animal-genes-and)*; th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sFgtH65ccBbYupYs2/biomimetic-alignment-alignment-between-animal-genes-and |
# Current AI harms are also sci-fi
A common argument I've seen for focusing on current AI harms over future ones is that the future ones are sci-fi (i.e. the ideas originated in the [science fiction genre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_fiction)). This argument is fallacious though, because many (perhaps all?) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trrSb7fsQp5Bs5y3p/current-ai-harms-are-also-sci-fi |
# Leave an Emotional Line of Retreat
It can be hard to handle social rejection well. I think I have found a framing that is probably not sufficient, but goes in the right direction.
I'm using something that is a corollary of [Leave a Line of Retreat](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3XgYbghWruBMrPTAL/leave-a-line-of-r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lfa9oKQjSJd69DqRp/leave-an-emotional-line-of-retreat |
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