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# Why didn't virologists run the studies necessary to determine which viruses are airborne?
If virology would be a reasonable scientific field I would expect them to care about the road viruses use to infect humans and other animals.
The experiment to determine whether or not a virus is airborne seems pretty straight... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tS55tccWi5Yt6YoLs/why-didn-t-virologists-run-the-studies-necessary-to |
# Never Fight The Last War
Lieutenant Colonel J. L. Schley, of the Corps of Engineers wrote:
> “There is a tendency in many armies to spend the peace time studying how to fight the last war”
After the Chinchilla paper, everyone got focused on the idea that large language models can be more effective.
The GPT3.5 we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yZJfJSQ2m7EgFwmgs/never-fight-the-last-war |
# Lightning Post: Things people in AI Safety should stop talking about
This is experimenting with a new kind of post which is meant to convey a lot of ideas very quickly, without going into much detail for each.
Things I wish people in AI Safety would stop talking about
==============================================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TpExcpmeHhhfNtXoh/lightning-post-things-people-in-ai-safety-should-stop |
# Causality: A Brief Introduction
*Post 2 of *[*Towards Causal Foundations of Safe AGI*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/pcdHisDEGLbxrbSHD)*, see also* [*Post 1 Introduction*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/3oQCY4he4zRzF6vQb/introduction-to-towards-causal-foundations-of-safe-agi)*.*
*By Lewis Hammond, Tom Ever... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9ag5JGBnMsayBidwh/causality-a-brief-introduction |
# Public Transit is not Infinitely Safe
I recently came across [this tweet](https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1669100924034338817), screenshotted into a [popular Facebook group](https://www.facebook.com/groups/whatwouldjanejacobsdo/posts/2475923272567279/):
> Here's a truth bomb:
>
> Take the U.S. city you're mos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z6RqDAoEGeF2cvxwK/public-transit-is-not-infinitely-safe |
# Frame Bridging v0.8 - an inquiry and a technique
Hello dear friends,
Question.
**What is the nature of the fracture found in unbridgeable frames? **
In one meeting with my teacher, I encountered what seemed to be an Unbridgeability. No way to communicate. An impasse.
I couldn't find a single sentence t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A2cXTPsxQjHDrv6dA/frame-bridging-v0-8-an-inquiry-and-a-technique |
# "Natural is better" is a valuable heuristic
***tl;dr** Until we understand how complex and chaotic systems*[^n49adtpcn29]* in nature work, "natural is better" is a valuable heuristic. It applies wherever science does not understand things well enough, especially when the stakes are high.*
If you throw a stick into ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tGfSPrkrFip2wxFBa/natural-is-better-is-a-valuable-heuristic |
# My tentative best guess on how EAs and Rationalists sometimes turn crazy
*Epistemic status: This is a pretty detailed hypothesis that I think overall doesn’t add up to more than 50% of my probability mass on explaining datapoints like FTX, Leverage Research, the LaSota crew etc., but is still my leading guess for wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HCAyiuZe9wz8tG6EF/my-tentative-best-guess-on-how-eas-and-rationalists |
# Short timelines and slow, continuous takeoff as the safest path to AGI
There are various different timelines/takeoff dynamics scenarios:
) made some claims about fundamental limits of interconnect losses on chips at [Br... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YihMH7M8bwYraGM8g/my-side-of-an-argument-with-jacob-cannell-about-chip |
# Relational Speaking
Relational speaking is a style that emphasizes flow and the relationship between subjects, rather than using pronouns to refer to entities in the discourse. It is appropriate for a wide variety of contexts, as it makes no assumptions about the gender of your referents. Relational constructions ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TYJHfYyseMvXjFuoD/relational-speaking |
# Philosophical Cyborg (Part 2)...or, The Good Successor
*This post is part of the output from AI Safety Camp 2023’s Cyborgism track, run by Nicholas Kees Dupuis - thank you to Nick, AISC organizers & funders for their support.*
# TL;DR
This post follows up on the [cyborgism](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bxt7uCi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZZ57cBkpQ5hpAux9T/philosophical-cyborg-part-2-or-the-good-successor |
# "textbooks are all you need"
"[Textbooks Are All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.11644)" was published yesterday by Microsoft Research. It's the worst-named paper I've seen recently: it's not about textbooks, it's not all you need, and gratuitously imitating the title of [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.037... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vAAneYowLkaHnihCg/textbooks-are-all-you-need |
# EU AI Act passed Plenary vote, and X-risk was a main topic
(mildly rewritten version of my [EA forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ctPrrzFnXGyWrmK3w/eu-ai-act-passed-vote-in-plenary-meeting) post)
The EU AI Act was originally proposed in 2020 as a very "EU regulates stuff first" kind of legislation, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L5pWY8gEGhsHiWcsG/eu-ai-act-passed-plenary-vote-and-x-risk-was-a-main-topic |
# Which personality traits are real? Stress-testing the lexical hypothesis
*This post is also available* [*on my Substack*](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/which-personality-traits-are-real)*. Thanks to Justis Mills for proofreading and feedback!*
Most scientific personality models are, directly or indirectly[^wqad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ftPQugx2726zAL2Ff/which-personality-traits-are-real-stress-testing-the-lexical |
# Progress links and tweets, 2023-06-21: Stewart Brand wants your comments
**Opportunities**
-----------------
* [Dwarkesh Patel is hiring a COO for his podcast, The Lunar Society](https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1669360116372742148)
* [Join a new campaign for nuclear regulatory reform](https://www.buildnu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XTG7HtyPbcBi9LoDT/progress-links-and-tweets-2023-06-21-stewart-brand-wants |
# Newbie questions about information theory and transformers
I have some very naive (and unfortunately sort of stream-of-consciousness) questions brought up by this post:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vAAneYowLkaHnihCg/textbooks-are-all-you-need
I definitely know that my ideas are poorly formed and I have n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mgim4A3KbLumyPyiF/newbie-questions-about-information-theory-and-transformers |
# How to Search Multiple Websites Quickly
Imagine you google the word "eigenvalue". But instead of one list of search results, you automatically get a bunch of new browser tabs. In each tab, is *the page about eigenvalues* on each of multiple whitelisted sites. Wikipedia, nLab, Wolfram Mathworld, reddit, and LessWrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cBM3Pux66FJ9eu2HY/how-to-search-multiple-websites-quickly |
# The Hubinger lectures on AGI safety: an introductory lecture series
In early 2023, I ([Evan Hubinger](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/evhub)) gave a series of recorded lectures to [SERI MATS](https://www.serimats.org) fellows with the goal of building up a series of lectures that could serve as foundational int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jotZXEixzToEHnrfr/the-hubinger-lectures-on-agi-safety-an-introductory-lecture |
# [Research Update] Sparse Autoencoder features are bimodal
Overview
--------
The [sparse autoencoders project](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z6QQJbtpkEAX3Aojj/interim-research-report-taking-features-out-of-superposition) is a mechanistic interpretability effort to algorithmically find semantically meaningful “feat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8BEJKhgFekvoNEtHv/research-update-sparse-autoencoder-features-are-bimodal |
# AI #17: The Litany
The biggest news this week was on the government front.
In the UK, Ian Hogarth of ‘We Must Slow Down the Race to Godlike AI’ fame was put in charge of a 100 million pound taskforce for AI safety.
I am writing up a separate post on that. For now, I will say that Ian is an excellent choice, and we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2azxasXxuhXvGfdW2/ai-17-the-litany |
# Catastrophic Risks from AI #1: Introduction
*This is the first post in a sequence of posts giving an* [*overview of catastrophic AI risks*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)*.*
Abstract
========
Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bvdbx6tW9yxfxAJxe/catastrophic-risks-from-ai-1-introduction |
# Catastrophic Risks from AI #2: Malicious Use
*This is the second post in a sequence of posts giving an* [*overview of catastrophic AI risks*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)*.*
2 Malicious Use
===============
On the morning of March 20, 1995, five men entered the Tokyo subway system. After boarding separate subw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MtDmnSpPHDvLr7CdM/catastrophic-risks-from-ai-2-malicious-use |
# Why Not Subagents?
Alternative title for economists: Complete Markets Have Complete Preferences
> The justification for modeling real-world systems as “agents” - i.e. choosing actions to maximize some utility function - usually rests on [various coherence theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQpNHSiWaXTvDxt6R/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bzmLC3J8PsknwRZbr/why-not-subagents |
# How tall is the Shard, really?
[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shard), the Shard (the tallest building in the UK) stands "309.6 meters (1,016 feet) high". I put this in my Anki deck as "Height of the Shard / 310m", but I was saying "height" to mean "tallness" (because I don't much like tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xtHsES35AhrCEF8ad/how-tall-is-the-shard-really |
# Park Toys
The park closest to our house has a lot of "park toys". These are toys that people brought to the park for everyone to play with. They're usually somewhat broken when they show up, and eventually get thrown out when they're so broken that there's not much interesting to do with them anymore (which is hard!... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nxnXxKHw6AKHuacw3/park-toys |
# When is correlation transitive?
It's a well-known property of correlation that it's not transitive in general. If \\( X, Y, Z \\) are three real-valued random variables such that \\( \rho(X, Y) > 0 \\) and \\( \rho(Y, Z) > 0 \\), it doesn't have to be the case that \\( \rho(X, Z) > 0 \\).
Nevertheless, there are *s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vfb5Seaaqzk5kzChb/when-is-correlation-transitive |
# Catastrophic Risks from AI #3: AI Race
*This is the third post in a sequence of posts giving an* [*overview of catastrophic AI risks*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)*.*
3 AI Race
=========
The immense potential of AIs has created competitive pressures among global players contending for power and influence. Thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4sEK5mtDYWJo2gHJn/catastrophic-risks-from-ai-3-ai-race |
# Automatic Rate Limiting on LessWrong
The LessWrong team recently began rolling out automatic rate limits. The general idea is if a user gets heavily downvoted, the site automatically restricts their posting and commenting privileges. (See [Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tscc3e5euj... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hHyYph9CcYfdnoC5j/automatic-rate-limiting-on-lesswrong |
# Crisis Boot Camp: lessons learned and implications for EA
Over the last 7+ months at work, I've needed to handle or support several crises (I'm on the US EV board and, in normal times, head of the community health and special projects team). It's been a crisis-handling boot camp, so I want to share my lessons learne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5evkZmEJBKFEZJuZf/crisis-boot-camp-lessons-learned-and-implications-for-ea |
# Can you prevent negative long-term effects of bad trips with sleep deprivation?
The idea is that you need sleep in order to consolidate your memories. If you deprive yourself of that after a bad trip on psychedelics, or after a traumatic event or re-traumatization, the newly formed bad memories don't consolidate.
I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FsqgRvarGvkSNgouB/can-you-prevent-negative-long-term-effects-of-bad-trips-with |
# How to prevent Re-Traumatization on Meditation Retreats
Meditation tends to bring to the surface unpleasant suppressed material like extremely unpleasant emotions, thoughts, or memories. When this happens while you're alone on a silent meditation retreat and don't know how to deal with it, there's a certain risk of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vGxiLi7W8deHwvHfx/how-to-prevent-re-traumatization-on-meditation-retreats |
# DSLT 4. Phase Transitions in Neural Networks
*TLDR; This is the fourth main post of* [*Distilling Singular Learning Theory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/czrXjvCLsqGepybHC) *which is introduced in* [*DSLT0*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xRWsfGfvDAjRWXcnG/dslt-0-distilling-singular-learning-theory)*. I explain how ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aKBAYN5LpaQMrPqMj/dslt-4-phase-transitions-in-neural-networks |
# Democratic AI Constitution: Round-Robin Debate and Synthesis
This document was my initial response to [OpenAI's call for proposals](https://openai.com/blog/democratic-inputs-to-ai) on how to democratically steer AI. I was thinking about crowdsourcing a constitution in the [Constitutional AI](https://arxiv.org/abs/22... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/habXKpXKaSK2F7vDP/democratic-ai-constitution-round-robin-debate-and-synthesis |
# Correctly Calibrated Trust
Chana from the CEA Community Health team posted this to the EA Forum, where it sadly seems to have not gotten a lot of traction. I actually think it's a quite important post, so I am signal-boosting it here. On the surface level it talks a lot about EA, but I a lot of it also straightforwa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KLwXLwBHLNNvtCcx2/correctly-calibrated-trust |
# Crystal Healing — or the Origins of Expected Utility Maximizers
*(Note: John discusses similar ideas* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bzmLC3J8PsknwRZbr/why-not-subagents)*. We drafted this before he published his post, so some of the concepts might jar if you read it with his framing in mind. )*
Traditiona... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tiftX2exZbrc3pNJt/crystal-healing-or-the-origins-of-expected-utility |
# Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread to humans? Why not?
*Helpful background reading:* [*What’s the deal with prions?*](https://eukaryotewritesblog.com/2016/05/10/whats-the-deal-with-prions/)
A novel lethal infectious neurological disease emerged in American deer a few decades ago. Since then, it’s spread ra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R9nM8GuDWBubRKA7v/will-the-growing-deer-prion-epidemic-spread-to-humans-why |
# Why am I Me?
At 5, I was hospitalized for a month due to pneumonia. Kids of that age have little fear of illnesses, and the discomfort is soon forgotten. What I still remember though is the intense boredom. It is during that dull month I started asking the question everyone has asked themself: "Among all the people ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xHA7jHafbkxrYLJhx/why-am-i-me |
# Map of maps of interesting fields
I love seeing cool visualizations (maps) of interesting intellectual fields. I’m also a big fan of making [lists](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6trt8mTsKfqJJbfJa/suggestion-eas-should-post-more-summaries-and-collections)!
Accordingly, I compiled a bunch of maps of field... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z7pszuF53kpG74MWe/map-of-maps-of-interesting-fields |
# AI-Plans.com - a contributable compendium
Hello, we’re working on [https://ai-plans.com](https://ai-plans.com) .
Ideas behind the site:
======================
Right now, alignment plans are spread all over the place and it’s difficult for a layperson, or someone unfamiliar with the field to get an idea of w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fcAmYySionnR4Muwi/ai-plans-com-a-contributable-compendium |
# Did Bengio and Tegmark lose a debate about AI x-risk against LeCun and Mitchell?
On June 22nd, there was a “Munk Debate”, facilitated by the Canadian Aurea Foundation, on the question whether “AI resea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CA7iLZHNT5xbLK59Y/did-bengio-and-tegmark-lose-a-debate-about-ai-x-risk-against |
# Another medical miracle
Or, "How I became even more disappointed in the medical practice in the USA than I already was".
I'm getting older - half a century now - and have recently been having health problems. It started with soreness in my right hip about four years ago, gradually getting worse and worse over time... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FZJKEtAuoqAp9Moj9/another-medical-miracle |
# Model, Care, Execution
When Alice harms Bob, it is likely that one of the following three things went wrong:
1. **Model:** Alice’s mental picture of what Bob would want, or of what is going on in the situation (which we’ll call her *model*), was incorrect and led her to behave in ways that caused Bob harm. If she’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mkDs86ciwwjnpyeZW/model-care-execution |
# Bounded surprise exam paradox
A small fun thing I came up with this morning.
The surprise exam paradox goes as follows: "you'll be given a surprise exam on one of the days next week, and you won't figure out the date of the exam on the previous day". Then you figure that the exam can't be on Sunday as it's the last... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nKsMNbPi9PZJZt8p/bounded-surprise-exam-paradox |
# 60+ Possible Futures
Introduction
============
I have compiled a list of possible future scenarios. I hope this list is useful in two ways:
* As a way to make your own thinking about the future more explicit; how much probability mass do you put on each possible future?
* As a menu of options to choose from; ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SRW9WAEEKJEgHAhSy/60-possible-futures |
# Direct Preference Optimization in One Minute
The [Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.18290.pdf) promises a more simple and efficient alternative to proximal policy optimization that is able to void the reward modeling phase, and thus optimize directly for the preferences expressed... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ruzY5LvBqFBWzyMo/direct-preference-optimization-in-one-minute |
# "Safety Culture for AI" is important, but isn't going to be easy
This is a linkpost (to the EA forum version of this post, which is) for [a new preprint, entitled "Building a Culture of Safety for AI: Perspectives and Challenges,"](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4491421) and a brief explanation ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iFLNKgZceYyTdwsGz/safety-culture-for-ai-is-important-but-isn-t-going-to-be |
# On the Cost of Thriving Index
[Scott Winship argued recently that the ‘cost of thriving’ has falle](https://twitter.com/swinshi/status/1671188340089974785)n, pushing back once again against Oren Cass and his rather arbitrarily calculated ‘Cost of Thriving Index (COTI).’
Alex Tabarrok posted today on Marginal Revolu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34X5LmNYWJudAL8qs/on-the-cost-of-thriving-index |
# The fraught voyage of aligned novelty
*[Metadata: crossposted from [https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-fraught-voyage-of-aligned-novelty.html](https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-fraught-voyage-of-aligned-novelty.html). First completed March 11, 2023.]*
A [voyage of novelty](https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ASZco85chGouu2LKk/the-fraught-voyage-of-aligned-novelty |
# Catastrophic Risks from AI #4: Organizational Risks
*This is the fourth post in a sequence of posts giving an* [*overview of catastrophic AI risks*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)*.*
4 Organizational Risks
======================
In January 1986, tens of millions of people tuned in to watch the launch of the Cha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wpsGprQCRffRKG92v/catastrophic-risks-from-ai-4-organizational-risks |
# Man in the Arena
> *“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who come... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rw5Q9ngBG5Au7Hvf7/man-in-the-arena |
# Epistemic spot checking one claim in The Precipice
On page 221 of The Precipice, Toby Ord says "scientists expect the brightening of the sun to also slow Earth's plate tectonics, dampening volcanic activity". This seemed very weird to me; how could sunlight possibly have any effect on mantle movement?
The book didn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sCmxrENskmzQrhyQY/epistemic-spot-checking-one-claim-in-the-precipice |
# AISC team report: Soft-optimization, Bayes and Goodhart
*This is a report on our work in* [*AISC Virtual 2023*](https://aisafety.camp/)*.*
For AISC 2023, our team looked into the foundations of soft optimization. Our goal at the beginning was to investigate variations of the original quantilizer algorithm, in parti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XXrGhqSNZjcG2nNiy/aisc-team-report-soft-optimization-bayes-and-goodhart |
# Self-Blinded Caffeine RCT
> I test 200mg caffeine in an n=1, m=50 self-blinded RCT. The outcomes are encouraging.
| | Log-score of predictions of substance | Absorption effect size d (λ, p, σ increase) | Mindfulness effect size d (λ, p, σ increase) | Productivity effect size d (λ, p, σ increase) | Creativity ef... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DQvuSBquC8ccwPhBo/self-blinded-caffeine-rct |
# Munk AI debate: confusions and possible cruxes
There was a debate on the statement “AI research and development poses an existential threat” (“x-risk” for short), with Max Tegmark and Yoshua Bengio arguing in favor, and Yann LeCun and Melanie Mitchell arguing against. The YouTube link is [here](https://youtu.be/144u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LNwtnZ7MGTmeifkz3/munk-ai-debate-confusions-and-possible-cruxes |
# Aligning AI by optimizing for "wisdom"
In this post, we’ll introduce *wisdom* as a measure of the benevolence and internal coherence of an arbitrary agent. We’ll define several factors, such as the agent’s *values*, *plans*, *evidence,* and *alignment with human values*, and then define wisdom as consistency within ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AtwPwD6PBsqfpCsHE/aligning-ai-by-optimizing-for-wisdom |
# The Weight of the Future (Why The Apocalypse Can Be A Relief)
I like thinking about a zombie apocalypse.
Given the popularity of the genre in film, tv, and video games, I’m not the only one.
It’s fun - thinking about the resources I’d need to acquire, the plans I’d make, what locations provide fortification and fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4tNtMd9QynxutLyNc/the-weight-of-the-future-why-the-apocalypse-can-be-a-relief |
# Catastrophic Risks from AI #5: Rogue AIs
*This is the fifth post in a sequence of posts giving an* [*overview of catastrophic AI risks*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)*.*
Rogue AIs
=========
So far, we have discussed three hazards of AI development: environmental competitive pressures driving us to a state of h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nJEJAcS6Bs4BJbkZb/catastrophic-risks-from-ai-5-rogue-ais |
# Catastrophic Risks from AI #6: Discussion and FAQ
*This is the final post in a sequence of posts giving an* [*overview of catastrophic AI risks*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12001)*.*
6 Discussion of Connections Between Risks
=========================================
So far, we have considered four sources of AI ri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ydtdwWSCCihms5Jeo/catastrophic-risks-from-ai-6-discussion-and-faq |
# Carl Shulman on The Lunar Society (7 hour, two-part podcast)
Dwarkesh's summary for part 1:
> In terms of the depth and range of topics, this episode is the best I’ve done.
>
> No part of my worldview is the same after talking with [Carl Shulman](http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com/). He's the most intere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ghrdnc26ftJrxD49z/carl-shulman-on-the-lunar-society-7-hour-two-part-podcast |
# Request: Put Carl Shulman's recent podcast into an organized written format
Carl Shulman recently did a very long interview with Dwarkesh Patel on the Lunar Society Podcast, which Dwarkesh released in two separate episodes because of its length. I have seen many people point to this interview as adding a lot of impo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CruEcapn8M8DLkTBT/request-put-carl-shulman-s-recent-podcast-into-an-organized |
# Nature: "Stop talking about tomorrow’s AI doomsday when AI poses risks today"
Overall, a headline that seems counterproductive and needlessly divisive.
I worry very much that coverage like this has the potential to bring political polarization to AI risk and it would be extremely damaging for the prospect of regula... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hLmZGQzrZqPc6LGso/nature-stop-talking-about-tomorrow-s-ai-doomsday-when-ai |
# When do "brains beat brawn" in Chess? An experiment
As a kid, I really enjoyed chess, as did my dad. Naturally, I wanted to play him. The problem was that my dad was extremely good. He was playing local tournaments and could play blindfolded, while I was, well, a child. In a purely skill based game like chess, an ex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/odtMt7zbMuuyavaZB/when-do-brains-beat-brawn-in-chess-an-experiment |
# The Case for Overconfidence is Overstated
(Written with [Matthew Mandelkern](https://mandelkern.hosting.nyu.edu/).)
**TLDR:** *When asked to make interval estimates, people appear radically overconfident—far more so than when their estimates are elicited in other ways. But an **accuracy-informativity tradeoff** can... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9vLbHTx3uXupbLcrr/the-case-for-overconfidence-is-overstated |
# AI Incident Sharing - Best practices from other fields and a comprehensive list of existing platforms
*Purpose of this post: *The purpose of this post is three-fold: 1) highlight the importance of incident sharing and share best practices from adjacent fields to AI safety 2) collect tentative and existing ideas of i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sAt6zfeatgFiikAkE/ai-incident-sharing-best-practices-from-other-fields-and-a |
# My research agenda in agent foundations
Since the [beginning](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rTJrqtDLxAPxiW3sk/my-first-year-in-ai-alignment) of 2022, I've been doing independent AI alignment research in [agent foundations](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/agent-foundations). The stage and scope of research that I am ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7nDvJiikgiawHAp6z/my-research-agenda-in-agent-foundations |
# Levels of safety for AI and other technologies
What does it mean for AI to be “safe”?
Right now there is [a lot of debate about AI safety](https://rootsofprogress.org/solutionism-on-ai-safety). But people often end up talking past each other because they’re not using the same definitions or standards.
For the sake... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cv64wEBKtMum7Dxj8/levels-of-safety-for-ai-and-other-technologies |
# What is your financial portfolio?
It seems plausible that we'll experience massive economic growth within the next decade due to advances in AI. How are you all taking advantage of this? What companies are you investing in, what assets are you holding onto? Are you not investing in some orgs as you think it would be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SMzWY9uZwL2tNScsf/what-is-your-financial-portfolio |
# Progress links and tweets, 2023-06-28: “We can do big things again in Pennsylvania”
**Opportunities**
-----------------
* [AI Grant’s second batch is now accepting applications](https://aigrant.org/) (via [@natfriedman](https://twitter.com/natfriedman/status/1671966899511652352))
* [Longevity Biotech Fellowship... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mAn8Fd7vRufgavaTw/progress-links-and-tweets-2023-06-28-we-can-do-big-things |
# A "weak" AGI may attempt an unlikely-to-succeed takeover
It seems possible that the first situationally-aware "goal having" AGI we land on will not be sufficiently capable along the axes that would let it quickly and reliably achieve a [decisive strategic advantage](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vkjWGJrFWBnzHtxrw/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B5CNPqYL7XcHzgzHc/a-weak-agi-may-attempt-an-unlikely-to-succeed-takeover |
# AGI x Animal Welfare: A High-EV Outreach Opportunity?
Epistemic status: *Very quickly written, on a thought I've been holding for a year and that I haven't read elsewhere. *
I believe that within this decade, there could be AGIs (Artificial General Intelligences) powerful enough that the values they pursue might ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g8RE5Pkh5z5M393uF/agi-x-animal-welfare-a-high-ev-outreach-opportunity |
# Transforming Democracy: A Unique Funding Opportunity for US Federal Approval Voting
I'm excited to share a special opportunity to create a systemic impact: a statewide approval voting ballot initiative in Missouri. This would affect all elections throughout the state including federal and presidential. Approval voti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jyhEZJztc2feEJuj5/transforming-democracy-a-unique-funding-opportunity-for-us |
# Metaphors for AI, and why I don’t like them
*\[Cross posted on lesswrong and *[*windowsontheory*](https://windowsontheory.org/2023/06/28/metaphors-for-ai-and-why-i-dont-like-them/)*; see here for my *[*prior writings*](https://windowsontheory.org/category/philosophizing/)*\]*
“computer, *n. /kəmˈpjuːtə/*. *One ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBHga8mFq88dK7548/metaphors-for-ai-and-why-i-don-t-like-them |
# AXRP announcement: Survey, Store Closing, Patreon
Some announcements:
* There’s a brief [survey](https://bit.ly/axrpsurvey2023) of my audience you can take here - filling it out will help me get a sense of where you all are at career-wise and how the podcast would better serve you. There are only 3 required quest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s7HAiEQrQrqB5CnJp/axrp-announcement-survey-store-closing-patreon |
# One path to coherence: conditionalization
*\[Thanks to guy-whose-name-I-forgot working on paths to coherence for the conversation at Newspeak House after EAG London that prompted this thought, and Jozdien and eschatropic for some related chit-chat.\]*
Many agents start with some level of incoherence in their prefe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vs49tuFuaMEd4iskA/one-path-to-coherence-conditionalization |
# Anthropically Blind: the anthropic shadow is reflectively inconsistent
For the purposes of this post, the anthropic shadow is the type of inference found in [*How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jE3npTEBtHnZBuAcg/how-many-lhc-failures-is-too-many).
> "Anthropic principle! If the LHC... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LGHuaLiq3F5NHQXXF/anthropically-blind-the-anthropic-shadow-is-reflectively |
# Cheat sheet of AI X-risk
*This document was made as part of my internship at *[*EffiSciences*](https://www.effisciences.org/)*. Thanks to everyone who helped review it, in particular Charbel-Raphaël Segerie, Léo Dana, Jonathan Claybrough and Florent Berthet!*
Introduction
============
[Clarifying AI X-risk](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nCeyBbhtJhToBFmrL/cheat-sheet-of-ai-x-risk |
# Bruce Sterling on the AI mania of 2023
Bruce Sterling is a well-known SF writer, but I think he is not quite on the radar of Less Wrong, so I'll say a bit about how I locate him culturally. I'll make a distinction between SF that is primarily about marvels of science and technology, and SF that is primarily about ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uNe5sjRRvMA8YnYHL/bruce-sterling-on-the-ai-mania-of-2023 |
# AI #18: The Great Debate Debate
Is debate worthwhile? That is a matter of some, ahem, disagreement.
A lot of that was mainstream discussions of the whole Rogan-RFK Jr fiasco. In the context of AI, we had a real debate on whether AI is an existential threat that by all accounts didn’t go great, and a Nature article ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cRdsiKQZWhpKDGoja/ai-18-the-great-debate-debate |
# I Think Eliezer Should Go on Glenn Beck
Glenn Beck is the only popular mainstream news host who takes AI safety seriously. I am being entirely serious. For those of you who don't know, Glenn Beck is one of the most trusted and well-known news sources by American conservatives.
Over the past month, he has produced ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FGWfTxsXk7euh4QGk/i-think-eliezer-should-go-on-glenn-beck |
# Foom Liability
Robin Hanson suggests, partly in response to calls for a pause in
development of AGI, [liability
rules](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/foom-liability) for risks
related to AGI rapidly becoming powerful.
My intuitive reaction was to classify foom liability as equivalent to a
near total ban on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEQuEsWPQAaXzhdxz/foom-liability |
# Contra Anton 🏴☠️ on Kolmogorov complexity and recursive self improvement
Twitter user @atroyn [claims](https://twitter.com/atroyn/status/1673036126804934657) that recursive self-improvement is impossible because of Kolmogorov complexity. Quoting most of[^1] the argument here:
> here is an argument against the pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hKr5SgDqnDewqACwX/contra-anton-on-kolmogorov-complexity-and-recursive-self |
# Introducing EffiSciences’ AI Safety Unit
*This post was written by Léo Dana, Charbel-Raphaël Ségerie, and Florent Berthet, with the help of Siméon Campos, Quentin Didier, Jérémy Andréoletti, Anouk Hannot and Tom David.*
*, preceded by *[*Post 1: Introduction*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/3oQCY4he4zRzF6vQb/introduction-to-towards-causal-foundations-of-safe-agi) and [*Post 2: Causality*](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qi77Tu3ehdacAbBBe/agency-from-a-causal-perspective |
# Horizontal and Vertical Integration
**TLDR:** *Slowing AI is easiest if AI companies are horizontally integrated, but not vertically integrated.*
Some people have expressed a preference for there being only one leading AI company,[^cbem3atlta7] or for leading AI companies to become better at coordinating with one a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kKFNjk5fWLh9acedx/horizontal-and-vertical-integration |
# Micro Habits that Improve One’s Day
This is my fifth attempt at writing this post. I’m starting to think that I’ve already spent way too much time on this topic, which I’m convinced is valuable, but maybe not so valuable as to spend 20 hours perpetually rewriting a post about it. So obviously my solution is to rewri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tH3FSwKPiRafG9BF/micro-habits-that-improve-one-s-day |
# Elements of Computational Philosophy, Vol. I: Truth
We're excited to share the first volume of [*Elements of Computational Philosophy*](https://compphil.github.io/), an interdisciplinary and collaborative project series focused on operationalizing fundamental philosophical notions in ways that are natively compatibl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8xreAj2nXGra22H7/elements-of-computational-philosophy-vol-i-truth |
# [Linkpost] A shared linguistic space for transmitting our thoughts from brain to brain in natural conversations
*This is a linkpost for* [*https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.27.546708v1*](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.27.546708v1)*.*
> Effective communication hinges on a mutual under... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XaKYzdFqcirwtmPYG/linkpost-a-shared-linguistic-space-for-transmitting-our |
# [ASoT] GPT2 Steering & The Tuned Lens
*Warning: This post and most of the results were made under heavy time constraints and may be updated later. My intention is to quickly share partial work I'm not planning on continuing.*
### Introduction & Love - Hate example
For a primer on how tuned lens works [see here](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Ldoxr7nbZTcaBxeh/asot-gpt2-steering-and-the-tuned-lens |
# Forum Karma: view stats and find highly-rated comments for any LW user
I've been posting and commenting pretty frequently over the last few months, and I was curious about some stats. What started as a few GraphQL queries and some Python scripting turned into an [interactive web app](https://forumkarma.com):
 First, Gerald Murnane tries, around Melbourne in the 1950s, to find a system that'll make him money betting on horse races. Then, Bill Benter, in Hong Kong in the 1990s, comes up with a system for picki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGzgyasdHTHRc4rDe/alpha |
# My "2.9 trauma limit"
Here is how I think about trauma.
It's packaged in a language intended to be accessible to people who are skeptical of trauma-narratives. It kinda skips over all the actually hard parts because I don't feel like dealing with that today, and many of them are sort of private and involve other p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4wkF5km5xJvpeftkj/my-2-9-trauma-limit |
# Grant applications and grand narratives
The Lightspeed application asks: “What impact will \[your project\] have on the world? What is your project’s goal, how will you know if you’ve achieved it, and what is the path to impact?”
LTFF uses an identical question, and SFF puts it even more strongly (“What is your or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FNPXbwKGFvXWZxHGE/grant-applications-and-grand-narratives |
# Using (Uninterpretable) LLMs to Generate Interpretable AI Code
(This post is a bit of a thought dump, but I hope it could be an interesting prompt to think about.)
For some types of problems, we can trust a proposed solution without trusting the method that generated the solution. For example, a mathematical pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sCJDstZrpCB8dQveA/using-uninterpretable-llms-to-generate-interpretable-ai-code |
# faster latent diffusion
## abbreviations
* NN = neural network
* LS = latent space
## background on diffusion
NN autoencoders can be trained to convert between images and a LS where distance corresponds to image similarity. Like how most images are just "noise", most of that LS does not correspond to meaningf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Cdusp5xzrHEoHz9n/faster-latent-diffusion |
# Negativity enhances positivity
A pet peeve of mine has always been how people decide to give ratings on Yelp. If the restaurant is pretty good, it gets five stars. If it's ok, it gets four stars. If it's genuinely bad, it gets three. If the waiter was rude, it gets one.
This leads to a situation where most ratings ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aacx3vqidpCKNRcH2/negativity-enhances-positivity |
# Through a panel, darkly: a case study in internet BS detection
I set out to answer a simple question: How much energy does it take to make solar panels? A quick DuckDuckGo search led me to [this website](https://solvoltaics.com/energy-make-solar-panel/) \[[archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20221023063921/https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ByDqBQTjaBbKBsxbv/through-a-panel-darkly-a-case-study-in-internet-bs-detection |
# How Smart Are Humans?
Epistemic status: free speculation
How intelligent should we expect AI to be, compared to humans, and how quickly should we expect it to reach this level of intelligence? This is of course an important strategic question, which has a large impact on our AI threat models. At the moment, the mos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7uexzZka8YtQzMwPf/how-smart-are-humans |
# Why it's so hard to talk about Consciousness
*[Thanks to [Charlie Steiner](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/charlie-steiner), [Richard Kennaway](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/richard_kennaway), and [Said Achmiz](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/saidachmiz) for helpful discussion. Extra special thanks to the [Long-Te... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NyiFLzSrkfkDW4S7o/why-it-s-so-hard-to-talk-about-consciousness |
# Going Crazy and Getting Better Again
[Epistemic status: Processing after a long period of work and recovery, which is not yet over]
## Background
Four years ago, I was in university. I was a casual rationalist, having been introduced by HPMOR, been active on rationalist tumblr, and then joined a loosely allied fict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bNKcKb8LYaQe49kWF/going-crazy-and-getting-better-again |
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