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# Causal decision theory is unsatisfactory
_This is [crossposted](http://mindingourway.com/causal-reasoning-is-unsatisfactory/) from [my new blog](http://mindingourway.com/). I was planning to write a short post explaining how Newcomblike problems are the norm and why any sufficiently powerful intelligence built to us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5oBw9T5y5DLpJZL63/causal-decision-theory-is-unsatisfactory |
# Should people be writing more or fewer LW posts?
It's unlikely that by pure chance we are currently writing the correct number of LW posts. So it might be useful to try to figure out if we're currently writing too few or too many LW posts. If commenters are evenly divided on this question then we're probably close... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oabpHeFKMJB6dxoEH/should-people-be-writing-more-or-fewer-lw-posts |
# A Guide to Rational Investing
Hello Less Wrong, I don't post here much but I've been involved in the Bay Area Less Wrong community for several years, where many of you know me from. The following is a white paper I wrote earlier this year for my firm, RHS Financial, a San Francisco based private wealth management pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4bBAqd4EEBKLBwNuF/a-guide-to-rational-investing |
# What are your contrarian views?
As per [a recent comment](/r/discussion/lw/kzf/should_people_be_writing_more_or_fewer_lw_posts/bbhg) this thread is meant to voice contrarian opinions, that is anything this community tends not to agree with. Thus I ask you to post your contrarian views and upvote anything you do **no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vsGJTr4bNhA4MutMs/what-are-your-contrarian-views |
# What are you learning?
This is a thread to connect rationalists who are learning the same thing, so they can cooperate.
The "learning" doesn't necessarily mean "I am reading a textbook / learning an online course right now". It can be something you are interested in long-term, and still want to learn more.
Rules:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AD53LCM2tHEBDxf7w/what-are-you-learning |
# Unpopular ideas attract poor advocates: Be charitable
Unfamiliar or unpopular ideas will tend to reach you via proponents who:
* ...hold extreme interpretations of these ideas.
* ...have unpleasant social characteristics.
* ...generally come across as cranks.
The basic idea: It's unpleasant to promote ideas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/APRxNpqrEZrpbSxWE/unpopular-ideas-attract-poor-advocates-be-charitable |
# Superintelligence Reading Group - Section 1: Past Developments and Present Capabilities
_This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, see the [announcement post](/lw/kw4/superintelligence_reading_group/). For the schedule of future topics, se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmZ2PaRo86pDXu8ii/superintelligence-reading-group-section-1-past-developments |
# What It's Like to Notice Things
Phenomenology
-------------
Phenomenology is the study of the structures of experience and consciousness. Literally, it is the study of "that which appears". The first time you look at a twig sticking up out of the water, you might be curious and ask, "What forces cause things to ben... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o7W3oB8SR679HGeAq/what-it-s-like-to-notice-things |
# Everybody's talking about machine ethics
There is a lot of mainstream interest in machine ethics now. Here are some links to some popular articles on this topic.
By Zeynep Tufecki, a professor at the I School at UNC, on [Facebook's algorithmic newsfeed curation](https://medium.com/message/ferguson-is-also-a-net-neu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JtbZ3SMYRdiyHHjYt/everybody-s-talking-about-machine-ethics |
# Simulate and Defer To More Rational Selves
I sometimes let imaginary versions of myself make decisions for me.
I first started doing this after a friend told me (something along the lines of) this story. When they first became executive director of their organization, they suddenly had many more decisions to deal w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBnSRErajRtvhMnDr/simulate-and-defer-to-more-rational-selves |
# Petrov Day is September 26
On September 26th, 1983, the world was nearly destroyed by nuclear war. That day is Petrov Day, named for the man who averted it. Petrov Day is now a yearly event on September 26 commemorating the anniversary of the Petrov incident. Last year, Citadel, the Boston-area rationalist house, pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fr8MEigHzJeFQkctL/petrov-day-is-september-26 |
# A proof of Löb's theorem in Haskell
I'm not sure if this post is very on-topic for LW, but we have many folks who understand [Haskell](http://www.haskell.org/haskellwiki/Haskell) and many folks who are interested in [Löb's theorem](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%B6b's_theorem) (see e.g. Eliezer's [picture proof](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jshdZw3xofq9wgE7T/a-proof-of-loeb-s-theorem-in-haskell |
# You’re Entitled to Everyone’s Opinion
Over the past year, I've noticed a topic where Less Wrong might have a blind spot: public opinion. Since last September I've had (or butted into) five conversations here where someone's written something which made me think, "you wouldn't be saying that if you'd looked up survey... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CL9KMiuiff4Y4CqFE/you-re-entitled-to-everyone-s-opinion |
# An introduction to Newcomblike problems
_This is [crossposted](http://mindingourway.com/intro-to-newcomblike-problems/) from [my new blog](http://mindingourway.com), following up on my [previous post](/lw/kz9/causal_decision_theory_is_unsatisfactory/). It introduces the original "Newcomb's problem" and discusses the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wk7WmrN4FeNmyepXm/an-introduction-to-newcomblike-problems |
# CEV: coherence versus extrapolation
It's just struck me that there might be a tension between the coherence (C) and the extrapolated (E) part of [CEV](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Coherent_Extrapolated_Volition). One reason that CEV might work is that the [mindspace of humanity isn't that large](/lw/rl/the_psychol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RGd85AErgmXmAMKw5/cev-coherence-versus-extrapolation |
# Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI
_This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/56b8n8FT6fksnDZwY/superintelligence-reading-group-2-forecasting-ai |
# Books on consciousness?
Does LW have a consensus on which books are worthwhile to read regarding consciousness? I read a small intro (Consciousness: A Very Short Introduction, Susan Blackmore, Oxford University Press), and the summary seems to be "Consciousness is pretty damn weird and no one seems to have much of a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sQh57GE9dNPiJELLp/books-on-consciousness |
# Simulation argument meets decision theory
Person X stands in front of a sophisticated computer playing the decision game Y which allows for the following options: either press the button "sim" or "not sim". If she presses "sim", the computer will simulate X\*\_1, X\*\_2, ..., X\*\_1000 which are a thousand identical... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xjWbChCdqSSQyMNnr/simulation-argument-meets-decision-theory |
# Newcomblike problems are the norm
_This is [crossposted](http://mindingourway.com/newcomblike-problems-are-the-norm/) from [my blog](http://mindingourway.com). In this post, I discuss how Newcomblike situations are common among humans in the real world. The intended audience of my blog is wider than the readerbase o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puutBJLWbg2sXpFbu/newcomblike-problems-are-the-norm |
# What's the right way to think about how much to give to charity?
I'd like to hear from people about a process they use to decide how much to give to charity. Personally, I have very high income, and while we donate significant money in absolute terms, in relative terms the amount is <1% of our post-tax income. It se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SYPEcK3Y7DjuPX2kQ/what-s-the-right-way-to-think-about-how-much-to-give-to |
# Logics for Mind-Building Should Have Computational Meaning
**The Workshop**
Late in July I organized and held MIRIx Tel-Aviv with the goal of investigating the currently-open (to my knowledge) Friendly AI problem called "logical probability": the issue of assigning probabilities to formulas in a first-order proof s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EKsafyzZ8ah9ZeWew/logics-for-mind-building-should-have-computational-meaning |
# Polymath-style attack on the Parliamentary Model for moral uncertainty
_Thanks to [ESrogs](/user/ESrogs/overview/), [Stefan_Schubert](http://stefanschubert.wordpress.com/), and the Effective Altruism summit for the discussion that led to this post!_
This post is to test out Polymath-style collaboration on LW. The p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/whhsY6JQXfJs7rMFS/polymath-style-attack-on-the-parliamentary-model-for-moral |
# Assessing oneself
I'm sorry if this is the wrong place for this, but I'm kind of trying to find a turning point in my life.
I've been told repeatedly that I have a talent for math, or science (by qualified people). And I seem to be intelligent enough to understand large parts of math and physics. But I don't know i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7FSZ9Ysn5XT5crfx/assessing-oneself |
# The Future of Humanity Institute could make use of your money
Many people have an incorrect view of the [Future of Humanity Institute](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/)'s [funding situation](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/support-fhi/), so this is a brief note to correct that; think of it as a spiritual successor to [this post](/l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sZtznjck8QePXNxQK/the-future-of-humanity-institute-could-make-use-of-your |
# Decision theories as heuristics
Main claims:
1. A lot of discussion of decision theories is really analysing them as decision-making heuristics for boundedly rational agents.
2. Understanding decision-making heuristics is really useful.
3. The quality of dialogue would be improved if it was recognised when they ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t4M2LrsppYpPAqDMF/decision-theories-as-heuristics |
# [Link] Forty Days
[A post](http://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/09/28/forty-days/) from [Gregory Cochran](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregory_Cochran)'s and [Henry Harpending](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Harpending)'s excellent blog [West Hunter](http://westhunt.wordpress.com/).
> **One of the many interestin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rFCwuY5oHu7tWDqAX/link-forty-days |
# 2014 iterated prisoner's dilemma tournament results
**Followup to:** [Announcing the 2014 program equilibrium iterated PD tournament](/r/discussion/lw/knd/announcing_the_2014_program_equilibrium_iterated)
In August, I announced an iterated prisoner's dilemma tournament in which bots can simulate each other befo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q8NHPhhELtMecRLQF/2014-iterated-prisoner-s-dilemma-tournament-results |
# Upcoming CFAR events: Lower-cost bay area intro workshop; EU workshops; and others
For anyone who's interested:
[CFAR](http://rationality.org/) is trying out an experimental, **lower-cost, 1.5-day introductory workshop [Oct 25-26](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/a-taste-of-applied-rationality-tickets-12944727027) in t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9jHwTTsEnRBqogiqB/upcoming-cfar-events-lower-cost-bay-area-intro-workshop-eu |
# Introducing Effective Altruist Profiles
We’re excited to announce [EA Profiles](http://effectivealtruismhub.com/user/profiles), a new community platform for effective altruists. There are already hundreds of profiles for you to browse from members of the community such as Peter Singer and Jeff Kaufman, full of inter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMRT6qyBpeFeKTv87/introducing-effective-altruist-profiles |
# [Link] Animated Video - The Useful Idea of Truth (Part 1/3)
I have taken [this well received post](/lw/eqn/the_useful_idea_of_truth/) by Eliezer, and remade the first third of it into a short and quickly paced youtube video here: http://youtu.be/L2dNANRIALs
The goals of this post are re-introducing the lessons expl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GT4FAZbSSxQpoSKq4/link-animated-video-the-useful-idea-of-truth-part-1-3 |
# SRG 4: Biological Cognition, BCIs, Organizations
_This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so fa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SEtkbLgusgtQ9dAzX/srg-4-biological-cognition-bcis-organizations |
# Questions on Theism
Long time lurker, but I've barely posted anything. I'd like to ask Less Wrong for help.
Reading various articles by the Rationalist Community over the years, here, on Slate Star Codex and a few other websites, I have found that nearly all of it makes sense. Wonderful sense, in fact, the kind of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YRL3aLTaTA8vBYRAS/questions-on-theism |
# Contrarian LW views and their economic implications
LW readers have unusual views on many subjects. Efficient Market Hypothesis notwithstanding, many of these are probably alien to most people in finance. So it's plausible they might have implications that are not yet fully integrated into current asset prices. And ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auRjdC63Y226HeYnG/contrarian-lw-views-and-their-economic-implications |
# 3-day Solstice in Leipzig, Germany: small, nice, very low cost, includes accommodation, 19th-21st Dec
Hi everyone,
like last year, we'll have a Secular Solstice in Leipzig, Germany. You're invited - message me if you'd like to attend.
We have space for about 25 people. So this isn't a huge event like you'd have in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iMG3TiD6PDFE3F88a/3-day-solstice-in-leipzig-germany-small-nice-very-low-cost |
# Happiness Logging: One Year In
I've been logging my happiness for [a year now](http://www.jefftk.com/p/happiness-logging). \[1\] My phone notifies me at unpredictable intervals, and I respond with some tags. For example, if it pinged me now, I would enter "6 home bed computer blog". I always have a numeric tag for m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3dLFn25rPhWEXztX/happiness-logging-one-year-in |
# Cryonics in Europe?
What are the best options for cryonics in Europe?
AFAIK the best option is still to use one of the US providers(e.g. Alcor) and arrange for transportation. There is a problem with this though, in that until you arrive in the US your body will be cooled with dry ice which will cause huge ischemic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CG2PDqfjwHLWFcgy2/cryonics-in-europe |
# Solstice 2014 - Kickstarter and Megameetup
[](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/244974495/secular-solstice-2014)
**Summary:**
------------
* We're running another [Winter Solstice kickstarter ](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CNGzKea2nbzixpxcd/solstice-2014-kickstarter-and-megameetup |
# 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey - Call For Critiques/Questions
It's that time of year again. Actually, a little earlier than that time of year, but I'm pushing it ahead a little to match when Ozy and I expect to have more free time to process the results.
The first draft of the 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey is co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBhrHw5X8sDmHDWkX/2014-less-wrong-census-survey-call-for-critiques-questions |
# Five Planets In Search Of A Sci-Fi Story
**Gamma Andromeda**, where philosophical stoicism went too far. Its inhabitants, tired of the roller coaster ride of daily existence, decided to learn equanimity in the face of gain or misfortune, neither dreading disaster nor taking joy in success.
But that turned out to be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ouSpHCCPgsXkwxAGb/five-planets-in-search-of-a-sci-fi-story |
# Baysian conundrum
For some time I've been pondering on a certain scenario, which I'll describe shortly. I hope you may help me find a satisfactory answer or at very least be as perplexed by this probabilistic question as me. Feel free to assign any reasonable a priori probabilities as you like. Here's the problem: ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rxb46W3okERnTL2EZ/baysian-conundrum |
# Superintelligence 5: Forms of Superintelligence
_This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/semvkn56ZFcXBNc2d/superintelligence-5-forms-of-superintelligence |
# On Caring
_This is an essay describing some of my motivation to be an effective altruist. It is [crossposted](http://mindingourway.com/on-caring/) from [my blog](http://mindingourway.com/). Many of the ideas here are quite similar to [others found in the sequences](/lw/hw/scope_insensitivity/). I have a slightly dif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ur9TCRnHJighHmLCW/on-caring |
# What math is essential to the art of rationality?
I have started to put together a sort of curriculum for learning the subjects that lend themselves to rationality. It includes things like experimental methodology and cognitive psychology (obviously), along with "support disciplines" like computer science and econom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4D4QJ6F2d2tCkXkHR/what-math-is-essential-to-the-art-of-rationality |
# How to write an academic paper, according to me
_Disclaimer: this is entirely a personal viewpoint, formed by a few years of publication in a few academic fields._ **EDIT:** Many of the comments are very worth reading as well.
Having recently finished a very rushed submission (turns out you can write a novel paper ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PPoTcRcaEhkin4pcN/how-to-write-an-academic-paper-according-to-me |
# Fighting Mosquitos
According to Louie Helm [eradicating a species of mosquitoes](http://rockstarresearch.com/engineering-the-extinction-of-40-species-of-mosquitoes/ "mosquito eradication") could be done for as little as a few million dollar.
I don't have a few million dollar lying around so I can't spend my own mon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5Q5w2YwrCfdu4ZDn/fighting-mosquitos |
# What false beliefs have you held and why were you wrong?
What is something you used to believe, preferably something concrete with direct or implied predictions, that you now know was dead wrong. Was your belief rational given what you knew and could know back then, or was it irrational, and why?
Edit: I feel like ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8oYpfwTcnKtsF2Czz/what-false-beliefs-have-you-held-and-why-were-you-wrong |
# Crossing the History-Lessons Threshold
(1)
Around 2009, I embarked on being a serious amateur historian. I wouldn't have called it that at the time, but since then, I've basically nonstop studied various histories.
The payoffs of history come slow at first, and then fast. History is often written as a series of is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x8uDdhyKNE397fAXD/crossing-the-history-lessons-threshold |
# What is optimization power, formally?
I'm interested in [thinking](/r/discussion/lw/kzi/proposal_use_logical_depth_relative_to_human/) [formally](/r/lesswrong/lw/l0z/depthbased_supercontroller_objectives_take_2/) about AI risk. I believe that a proper mathematization of the problem is important to making intellectua... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o9baX2uxbya4R959g/what-is-optimization-power-formally |
# Logical uncertainty reading list
This was originally part of a post I wrote on logical uncertainty, but it turned out to be post-sized itself, so I'm splitting it off.
Daniel Garber's article [Old Evidence and Logical Omniscience in Bayesian Confirmation Theory](http://fitelson.org/probability/garber.pdf). Wonderfu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cC2mEzNhzLHPKbru7/logical-uncertainty-reading-list |
# Applications of logical uncertainty
Lately I've been reading a lot about the problem of logical uncertainty. The problem is that there are logical consequences of your beliefs that you're uncertain about.
So, for statements like "the billionth digit of pi is even", it's provable from your beliefs. But you're still ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SbQP7QcibGx784kY9/applications-of-logical-uncertainty |
# Fixing Moral Hazards In Business Science
I'm a LW reader, two time CFAR alumnus, and rationalist entrepreneur.
Today I want to talk about something insidious: marketing studies.
Until recently I considered studies of this nature merely unfortunate, funny even. However, my recent experiences have caused me to reali... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zwvYRBqarbj8MmDub/fixing-moral-hazards-in-business-science |
# European Community Weekend 2015
The Berlin meetup group is organizing the LessWrong Community Weekend 2015. From June 12th to 14th awesome people from all across Europe are coming to Berlin to meet, exchange ideas and start projects. The focus is on forming new and strengthening existing ties between our local commu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6W7o7ccJ9ZqZ3aXaj/european-community-weekend-2015 |
# A Day Without Defaults
_Author's note: this post was written on Sunday, Oct. 19th. Its sequel will be written on Sunday, Oct. 27th.
_
Last night, I went to bed content with a fun and eventful weekend gone by. This morning, I woke up, took a shower, did my morning exercises, and began eat breakfast before making t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRtYs8CFnT9eyK8WJ/a-day-without-defaults |
# Four things every community should do
Yesterday I attended church service in Romania where I had visited my sister and the sermon was about the four things a (christian) community has to follow to persevere and grow.
I first considered just posting the quote from the Acts of the Apostles (reproduced below) in the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fLMbePtNid62YKcrt/four-things-every-community-should-do |
# Introducing Corrigibility (an FAI research subfield)
Benja, Eliezer, and I have published a new technical report, in collaboration with Stuart Armstrong of the Future of Humanity institute. This paper introduces [Corrigibility](http://intelligence.org/files/CorrigibilityTR.pdf), a subfield of Friendly AI research. T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yFr8ZfGGnRX5GqndZ/introducing-corrigibility-an-fai-research-subfield |
# One Year of Goodsearching
**Followup to:** [Use Search Engines Early and Often](/lw/hcx/use_search_engines_early_and_often/)
Last year, I [posted about using search engines](/lw/hcx/use_search_engines_early_and_often/) and particularly recommended [GoodSearch](http://www.goodsearch.com/), a site that donates one ce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JfqAZxhoRbFzQaFwh/one-year-of-goodsearching |
# Is the potential astronomical waste in our universe too small to care about?
In the not too distant past, people [thought](http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Omega/dyson.txt) that our universe might be capable of supporting an unlimited amount of computation. Today our [best guess](http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/040451... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BNbxueXEcm6dCkDuk/is-the-potential-astronomical-waste-in-our-universe-too |
# Anthropic signature: strange anti-correlations
Imagine that the only way that civilization could be destroyed was by a large pandemic that occurred at the same time as a large recession, so that governments and other organisations were too weakened to address the pandemic properly.
Then if we looked at the past, as... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oZxsac7JYkqPHwHTL/anthropic-signature-strange-anti-correlations |
# In the grim darkness of the far future there is only war continued by other means
_(cross-posted from [my blog](http://www.deathisbadblog.com/in-the-grim-darkness-of-the-far-future-there-is-only-war-continued-by-other-means/))_
I. PvE vs PvP
Ever since it’s advent in [Doom](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doom_(serie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G9pf6AeBwFfj2Ac23/in-the-grim-darkness-of-the-far-future-there-is-only-war |
# Power and difficulty
A specific bias that Lesswrongers may often [get from fiction](/lw/k9/the_logical_fallacy_of_generalization_from/)^\[1\]^ is the idea that power is proportional to difficulty. The more power something gives you, the harder it should be to get, right?
A mediocre student becomes a powerful mage t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GA7YKHoeFHCjoxBJG/power-and-difficulty |
# Blackmail, continued: communal blackmail, uncoordinated responses
The heuristic that one should always resist blackmail seems a good one (no matter how [tricky](/lw/hza/duller_blackmail_definitions/) [blackmail](/lw/39a/unpacking_the_concept_of_blackmail/) is to [define](/r/discussion/lw/hz9/countess_and_baron_attem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aDk8CCAcbDjHPKv9G/blackmail-continued-communal-blackmail-uncoordinated |
# What supplements do you take, if any?
Since it turns out that it [isn't feasible](/lw/l3s/2014_less_wrong_censussurvey_call_for/bfwb) to include check as many as apply questions in the big survey, I'm asking about supplements here. I've got a bunch of questions, and I don't mind at all if you just answer some of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bt7QwaurkRS7WFmqk/what-supplements-do-you-take-if-any |
# Is this paper formally modeling human (ir)rational decision making worth understanding?
I've found that I learn new topics best by struggling to understand a jargoney paper. This passed through my inbox today and on the surface it appears to hit a lot of high notes.
Since I'm not an expert, I have no idea if this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WXeiXHrpYEJCiuWDu/is-this-paper-formally-modeling-human-ir-rational-decision |
# question: the 40 hour work week vs Silicon Valley?
Conventional wisdom, and many studies, hold that 40 hours of work per week are the optimum before exhaustion starts dragging your productivity down too much to be worth it. I read elsewhere that the optimum is even lower for creative work, namely 35 hours per week, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxteuuGE9EmznYRAM/question-the-40-hour-work-week-vs-silicon-valley |
# Weird Alliances
In the [recent discussion on supplements](/r/discussion/lw/l5m/what_supplements_do_you_take_if_any/), I commented on how weird an alliance health stores are. They cater for clientèle with widely divergent beliefs about how their merchandise works, such as New Agers vs. biohackers. In some cases, they... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A4RPS7sk9HS967WFE/weird-alliances |
# Podcasts?
I discovered podcasts last year, and I love them! Why not be hearing about new ideas while I'm walking to where I'm going? (Some of you might shout "insight porn!", and I think that I largely agree. However, 1) I don't have any particular problem with insight porn and 2) I have frequently been exposed to a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRKDLReYgs6PavxAx/podcasts |
# Self-signaling the ability to do what you want
1
=
In college, I would often find that I had just a little bit too much food. Either I'd cooked too much or the food I'd ordered was just a bit too large, or whatever.
I'm sure many of you are familiar with the feeling of having four bites of food left, wanting rough... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rWo2LmgQAvZDaa75z/self-signaling-the-ability-to-do-what-you-want |
# Alcoholics Anonymous: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
*\[EDIT 10/27: Slight changes in response to feedback; correcting some definitions. I am not an expert in this field and will continue to make changes as I learn about them. There is a critique of this post* [*here*](http://www.reddit.com/r/psychology/comments/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CfX6pGepdjQYELSpK/alcoholics-anonymous-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# [Link] "The Problem With Positive Thinking"
[Psychology researchers discuss their findings in a New York Times op-ed piece.](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/26/opinion/sunday/the-problem-with-positive-thinking.html)
The take-home advice:
> Positive thinking fools our minds into perceiving that we’ve already attaine... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hPpriRyPXumDrcfEJ/link-the-problem-with-positive-thinking |
# 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey
It's that time of year again.
If you are reading this post and self-identify as a LWer, then you are the target population for the Less Wrong Census/Survey. Please take it. Doesn't matter if you don't post much. Doesn't matter if you're a lurker. Take the survey.
This year's c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oGezscrQvPDgGvrbt/2014-less-wrong-census-survey |
# "Solving" selfishness for UDT
_With many thanks to [Beluga](/user/Beluga/overview/) and [lackofcheese](/user/lackofcheese/overview/)._
When trying to decide between [SIA](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-indication_assumption) and [SSA](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sampling_assumption), two anthropic probabil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c73kPDr8pZGdZSe3q/solving-selfishness-for-udt |
# Stupid Questions (10/27/2014)
I think it's past time for another Stupid Questions thread, so here we go.
This thread is for asking any questions that might seem obvious, tangential, silly or what-have-you. Please respect people trying to fix any ignorance they might have, rather than mocking that ignorance. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DQGpAf6NX6B4z6LCe/stupid-questions-10-27-2014 |
# Superintelligence 7: Decisive strategic advantage
_This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vkjWGJrFWBnzHtxrw/superintelligence-7-decisive-strategic-advantage |
# Link: Elon Musk wants gov't oversight for AI
"I'm increasingly inclined to thing there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the national and international level just to make sure that we don't do something very foolish."
http://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-we-are-summoning-the-demon-with-artificial-intellig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r3ETXQv3avJJogmBo/link-elon-musk-wants-gov-t-oversight-for-ai |
# Things to consider when optimizing: Sleep
I'd like to have a series of discussion posts, where each post is of the form "Let's brainstorm things you might consider when optimizing X", where X is something like sleep, exercise, commuting, studying, etc. Think of it like a specialized [repository](/lw/i64/repository_r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/68oAWudk7RduzPzDB/things-to-consider-when-optimizing-sleep |
# A discussion of heroic responsibility
\[Originally posted to my [personal blog](http://swimmer963.com/), reposted here with edits.\]
Introduction
------------
> You could call it heroic responsibility, maybe,” Harry Potter said. “Not like the usual sort. It means that whatever happens, no matter what, it’s always ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R4f4RdGBdZsPzyJYk/a-discussion-of-heroic-responsibility |
# Wikipedia articles from the future
Speculation is important for forecasting; it's also fun. Speculation is usually conveyed in two forms: in the form of an argument, or encapsulated in fiction; each has their advantages, but both tend to be time-consuming. Presenting speculation in the form of an argument involves... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FAnamDm6rcehFCwN4/wikipedia-articles-from-the-future |
# Maybe you want to maximise paperclips too
As most LWers will know, Clippy the Paperclip Maximiser is a superintelligence who wants to tile the universe with paperclips. The LessWrong [wiki entry for Paperclip Maximizer](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Paperclip_maximizer) says that:
> The goal of maximizing papercli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nxMgXS4iCNenNwxMi/maybe-you-want-to-maximise-paperclips-too |
# [Link]"Neural Turing Machines"
[The paper.](http://arxiv.org/abs/1410.5401)
Discusses the technical aspects of one of Googles AI projects. According to a pcworld the system ["apes human memory and programming skills"](http://www.pcworld.com/article/2841232/google-ai-project-apes-memory-programs-sort-of-like-a-human... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/84aQjw6J6bBsbvYqi/link-neural-turing-machines |
# Why is the A-Theory of Time Attractive?
I've always been puzzled by why so many people have such strong intuitions about whether the [A-theory or the B-theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-series_and_B-series)^1^ of time is true. \[**ETA**: I've written "A-theory" and "B-theory" as code for "[presentism](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5pvapNa9JD7Wg4BEH/why-is-the-a-theory-of-time-attractive |
# The Truth and Instrumental Rationality
One of the central focuses of LW is instrumental rationality. It's been suggested, rather famously, [that this isn't about having true beliefs, but rather its about "winning"](/lw/7i/rationality_is_systematized_winning/ "Rationality is Systematized Winning"). Systematized winni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BhD5bvnMvhoxedhnh/the-truth-and-instrumental-rationality |
# A website standard that is affordable to the poorest demographics in developing countries?
Fact: the Internet is excruciatingly slow in many developing countries, especially outside of the big cities.
Fact: today's websites are designed in such a way that they become practically impossible to navigate with connecti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2vSD9RGE2JyoTxYQN/a-website-standard-that-is-affordable-to-the-poorest |
# November 2014 Monthly Bragging Thread
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining **the most awesome thing you've done this month**. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself _the coolest freaking person ever_ because of that aw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HTZS6Q72EHneWCyeq/november-2014-monthly-bragging-thread |
# Productivity through self-loyalty
1
=
I can be [pretty dang productive](http://lesswrong.com/lw/jg3/the_mechanics_of_my_recent_productivity/) when I put my mind to it.
Many people have a generic mind-model which runs roughly as follows: a person's reported desires are but one voice among the thronging mob of force... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TqepFWjxWdZvQnkJr/productivity-through-self-loyalty |
# What are the most common and important trade-offs that decision makers face?
This is one part shameless self-promotion and one (hopefully larger) part seeking advice and comments. I'm wondering: what do you guys think are the most common and/or important trade-offs that decision makers (animals, humans, theoretical... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nEhuwYeTJvZDM7c35/what-are-the-most-common-and-important-trade-offs-that |
# Ethnic Tension And Meaningless Arguments
**I.**
Part of what bothers me – and apparently several others – about [yesterday’s motte-and-bailey discussion](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/03/all-in-all-another-brick-in-the-motte/) is that here’s a fallacy – a pretty successful fallacy – that depends entirely on peo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xKeNKFXFB458f5N8/ethnic-tension-and-meaningless-arguments |
# Productivity 101 For Beginners
I'd like to believe that [I'm pretty productive](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/90/peters_personal_review_for_julysep_2014/), and people seem interested in how I do it. Previously, I had written ["How I Am Productive"](/lw/ifl/how_i_am_productive/)and it became one of [my most popul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nXampWBbseHs8xAiw/productivity-101-for-beginners |
# The Danger of Invisible Problems
_TL;DR: There is probably some costly problem in your life right now that you are not even aware of. It is not that you are procrastinating on solving it. Rather, this problem has gradually blended into your environment, sinking beneath your conscious awareness to the degree that you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fx9YZDPtDBwvHnXd4/the-danger-of-invisible-problems |
# First(?) Rationalist elected to state government
Has no one else mentioned this on LW yet?
[Elizabeth Edwards](http://ballotpedia.org/Elizabeth_Edwards) has been elected as a New Hampshire State Rep, self-identifies as a Rationalist and [explicitly mentions Less Wrong in her first post-election blog post](http://el... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/msF7N4MN5C6pXcp4e/first-rationalist-elected-to-state-government |
# Unemployment explanations
When I knew nothing of economics, unemployment wasn't mysterious. People wanted a job, and couldn't get one - well, people often want stuff they can't get. Nothing strange there, just one of those things.
Then I learnt some simple economics, and it became more mysterious. The employment ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7KSHaNqKBpfFQ9hDv/unemployment-explanations |
# MIRI Research Guide
_We've recently published a [guide to MIRI's research](http://intelligence.org/research-guide/) on MIRI's website. It overviews some of the major open problems in FAI research, and provides reading lists for those who want to get familiar with MIRI's technical agenda._
_This guide updates and re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vXArgf9NsYxRYkpS/miri-research-guide |
# Open Thread: What are your important insights or aha! moments?
Sometimes our minds suddenly "click" and we see a topic in a new light. Or sometimes we think we understand an idea, think it's stupid and ignore attempts to explain it ("yeah, I already know that"), until we suddenly realize that our understanding was w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zKhT5BcpfRJraTJx4/open-thread-what-are-your-important-insights-or-aha-moments |
# A List of Nuances
[*Abram Demski*](http://lo-tho.blogspot.com/) *and* [*Grognor*](http://grognor.blogspot.com/)
Much of rationality is pattern-matching. An article on lesswrong might point out a thing to look for. Noticing this thing changes your reasoning in some way. This essay is a list of things to look for. Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FHjraJTw4T2xorq9n/a-list-of-nuances |
# Minerva Project: the future of higher education?
Right now, the inaugural class of [Minerva Schools at KGI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minerva_Schools_at_KGI) (part of the [Claremont Colleges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claremont_Colleges)) is finishing up its first semester of college. I use the word "college... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SKyFKYMzSyP2bsHyC/minerva-project-the-future-of-higher-education |
# My third-of-life crisis
I've been wanting to post this for a while, but it always felt too embarrassing. I've contributed next to nothing to this community, and I'm sure you have better problems to work on than my third-of-life crisis. However, the kind of problems I'm facing may require more brainpower than my meat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i8Sx5h9YNZep6m2pn/my-third-of-life-crisis |
# Exploiting EDT
The problem with EDT is, as David Lewis put it, its "irrational policy of managing the news" ([Lewis, 1981](http://www.informaworld.com/index/739194078.pdf "Lewis, D. (1981), Causal decision theory, Australasian Journal of Philosophy 59 (1): 5–30")): it chooses actions not only because of their effe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670374e7d/exploiting-edt |
# Superintelligence 9: The orthogonality of intelligence and goals
_This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an inde... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FtAJZWCMps7FWKTT3/superintelligence-9-the-orthogonality-of-intelligence-and |
# A Cost- Benefit Analysis of Immunizing Healthy Adults Against Influenza
As of 11:30CST, 11/11/14, this cost-benefit analysis has been revised, in order to address concerns raised in the comments. See [http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l8k/expansion\_on\_a\_previous\_costbenefit\_analysis\_of/](/r/discussion/lw/l8... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bJBQRkoa4nuozuWAn/a-cost-benefit-analysis-of-immunizing-healthy-adults-against |
# The Argument from Crisis and Pessimism Bias
Many people have argued that the public seems to have an overly negative view of society's development. For instance, [this survey](http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/aug/04/public-perception-crime-higher) shows that the British public think that the crime rate has gone up... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G4YNagbMvCikx9NhR/the-argument-from-crisis-and-pessimism-bias |
# Others' predictions of your performance are usually more accurate
##### _Sorry if the [positive illusions]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_illusions) are old hat, but I searched and couldn't find any mention of this peer prediction stuff! If nothing else, I think the findings provide a quick heuristic for ge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8YpYfyqv2kPH6ScRL/others-predictions-of-your-performance-are-usually-more |
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