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# Separating university education from grading
One of many problems with the contemporary university system is that the same institutions that educate students also give them their degrees and grades. This obviously creates massive incentives for [grade inflation](http://www.gradeinflation.com/) and lowering of stand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hZKx7KexJbuzdgdsJ/separating-university-education-from-grading |
# Just for fun: Computer game to illustrate AI takeover concepts?
I play Starcraft:BW sometimes with my brothers. One of my brothers is much better than the rest of us combined. This story is typical: In a free-for-all, the rest of us gang up on him, knowing that he is the biggest threat. By sheer numbers we beat him ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kNaLRc7w4iLtqtJn6/just-for-fun-computer-game-to-illustrate-ai-takeover |
# Tools want to become agents
In the spirit of "[satisficers want to become maximisers](/lw/854/satisficers_want_to_become_maximisers/)" here is a somewhat weaker argument (growing out of a discussion with Daniel Dewey) that "[tool](/lw/cbs/thoughts_on_the_singularity_institute_si/) [AIs](/lw/cze/reply_to_holden_on_to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rHSuu2X9ca8FR4thH/tools-want-to-become-agents |
# [LINK] Claustrum Stimulation Temporarily Turns Off Consciousness in an otherwise Awake Patient
[This paper](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1525505014002017), or more often [the New Scientist's exposition of it](http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329762.700-consciousness-onoff-switch-discovere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/As9XuwZqReQQAmngu/link-claustrum-stimulation-temporarily-turns-off |
# Quickly passing through the great filter
To quickly escape the great filter should we flood our galaxy with radio signals? While communicating with fellow humans we already send out massive amounts of information that an alien civilization could eventually pickup, but should we engage in [positive SETI](https://en.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gx67xueHf6RoFD2f7/quickly-passing-through-the-great-filter |
# Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
> Previous: [2011](/lw/8kv/recent_updates_to_gwernnet/), [2012-2013](/lw/h0b/recent_updates_to_gwernnet_20122013/)
“It cannot be gotten for gold, neither shall silver be weighed for the price thereof. / It cannot be valued with the gold of Ophir, with the precious onyx, nor t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSAeudGhPtw7zkryr/recent-updates-to-gwern-net-2013-2014 |
# SSRIs: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
The claim that “SSRIs don’t work” or “SSRIs are mostly just placebo” is most commonly associated with Irving Kirsch, a man with the awesome job title of “Associate Director Of The Program For Placebo Studies at Harvard”.
(fun fact: there’s actually no such thing as “Placebo ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/znEhB9hJtwXica5s3/ssris-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Change Contexts to Improve Arguments
On a recent trip to Ireland, I gave a talk on tactics for having better arguments ([video here](http://www.icatholic.ie/leah-libresco-dublin-talk/)). There's plenty in the video that's been discussed on LW before (Ideological Turing Tests and other reframes), but I thought I'd h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgbT8XcQbXprBicKS/change-contexts-to-improve-arguments |
# Confound it! Correlation is (usually) not causation! But why not?
> It is widely understood that statistical correlation between two variables ≠ causation. But despite this admonition, people are routinely overconfident in claiming correlations to support particular causal interpretations and are surprised by the re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u8eTTw32oDCGu64Yg/confound-it-correlation-is-usually-not-causation-but-why-not |
# Domains of forecasting
_Note: This post is part of my series on forecasting for MIRI. I recommend reading my [earlier post on the general-purpose forecasting community](/r/discussion/lw/ke2/generalpurpose_forecasting_and_the_associated/), my post on_ _[scenario planning](/lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/kf6/scenario_p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GNG8tGQjDWHLgfh96/domains-of-forecasting |
# Too good to be true
A friend recently posted a link on his Facebook page to an informational graphic about the alleged link between the MMR vaccine and autism. It said, if I recall correctly, that out of 60 studies on the matter, not one had indicated a link.
Presumably, with 95% confidence.
This bothered me. What... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zEozo6rFP24RPBPPC/too-good-to-be-true |
# Confused as to usefulness of 'consciousness' as a concept
Years ago, before I had come across many of the power tools in statistics, information theory, algorithmics, decision theory, or the Sequences, I was very confused by the concept of intelligence. Like many, I was inclined to reify it as some mysterious, effec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d9iTYbbTbvR4ctKSn/confused-as-to-usefulness-of-consciousness-as-a-concept |
# Why I Am Not a Rationalist, or, why several of my friends warned me that this is a cult
A common question here is how the LW community can grow more rapidly. Another is why seemingly rational people choose not to participate.
I've read all of HPMOR and some of the sequences, attended a couple of meetups, am signed ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xRW4YDnZyvKa2SoAf/why-i-am-not-a-rationalist-or-why-several-of-my-friends |
# This is why we can't have social science
Jason Mitchell is \[edit: has been\] the John L. Loeb Associate Professor of the Social Sciences at Harvard. He has won the National Academy of Science's Troland Award as well as the Association for Psychological Science's Janet Taylor Spence Award for Transformative Early Ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZCRsLYouKmmNho4A/this-is-why-we-can-t-have-social-science |
# Scenario analyses for technological progress for the next decade
_This is a somewhat long and rambling post. Apologies for the length. I hope the topic and content are interesting enough for you to forgive the meandering presentation._
I blogged about the scenario planning method [a while back](/r/discussion/lw/kf6... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TSyKhsJyydtDhQncc/scenario-analyses-for-technological-progress-for-the-next |
# How deferential should we be to the forecasts of subject matter experts?
This post explores the question: how strongly should we defer to predictions and forecasts made by people with domain expertise? I'll assume that the domain expertise is legitimate, i.e., the people with domain expertise do have a lot of inform... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D5LP8cff8y7rGraHH/how-deferential-should-we-be-to-the-forecasts-of-subject |
# An Experiment In Social Status: Software Engineer vs. Data Science Manager
Here is an [interesting blog post](https://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2014/07/13/how-the-other-half-works-an-adventure-in-the-low-status-of-software-engineers/) about a guy who did a resume experiment between two positions which he argues a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K46QPaZookcRByQFW/an-experiment-in-social-status-software-engineer-vs-data |
# The Correct Use of Analogy
**In response to:** [Failure by Analogy](/lw/vx/failure_by_analogy/), [Surface Analogies and Deep Causes](/lw/rj/surface_analogies_and_deep_causes/)
Analogy gets a bad rap around here, and not without reason. The kinds of argument from analogy condemned in the above links fully deserve th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vu5iPScrP9txzSR3b/the-correct-use-of-analogy |
# Effective Writing
Granted, writing is not very effective. But some of us just love writing...
Earning to Give Writing: Which are the places that pay [1USD](http://www.streetdirectory.com/travel_guide/16108/writing/write_for_markets_that_pay_1_per_word.html) or more dollars per word?
Mind Changing Writing: What [bo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hf5MpnSr4Q7zGnMcx/effective-writing |
# Look for the Next Tech Gold Rush?
In early 2000, I registered my personal domain name weidai.com, along with a couple others, because I was worried that the small (sole-proprietor) ISP I was using would go out of business one day and break all the links on the web to the articles and software that I had published on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jter3YhFBZFYo8vtq/look-for-the-next-tech-gold-rush |
# [QUESTION]: Academic social science and machine learning
I asked this question on Facebook [here](https://www.facebook.com/vipulnaik.r/posts/10203548307964234), and got some interesting answers, but I thought it would be interesting to ask LessWrong and get a larger range of opinions. I've modified the list of optio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGwZr4oF3ZhjaYfre/question-academic-social-science-and-machine-learning |
# Experiments 1: Learning trivia
There has been some talk of a lack of content being posted to Less Wrong, so I decided to start a series on various experiments that I've tried and what I've learned from them as I believe that experimentation is key to being a rationalist. My first few posts will be adapted from conte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C6pymPrMTTHiagXTP/experiments-1-learning-trivia |
# A simple game that has no solution
The following simple game has one solution that seems correct, but isn’t. Can you figure out why?
**The Game**
Player One moves first. He must pick A, B, or C. If Player One picks A the game ends and Player Two does nothing. If Player One picks B or C, Player Two will be told... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7MtqZ27T5LQTaBJC8/a-simple-game-that-has-no-solution |
# Knightian Uncertainty and Ambiguity Aversion: Motivation
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with someone advocating the use of [Knightian uncertainty](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty). I admitted that I've never found the concept compelling. We went back and forth for a little while. His p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iDYaCJ3o3Q7ypriTF/knightian-uncertainty-and-ambiguity-aversion-motivation |
# Politics is hard mode
_Summary_: I don't think 'politics is the mind-killer' works well rhetorically. I suggest 'politics is hard mode' instead.
* * *
Some people in and catawampus to the LessWrong community have objected to "_[politics is the mind-killer](/lw/gw/politics_is_the_mindkiller/)_" as a framing (/ slog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jxfu7CTc3NidinuXD/politics-is-hard-mode |
# A Visualization of Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence
Through a series of diagrams, this article will walk through key concepts in Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence. The book is full of heavy content, and though well written, its scope and depth can make it difficult to grasp the concepts and mentally hold them togethe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ukmDvowTpe2NboAsX/a-visualization-of-nick-bostrom-s-superintelligence |
# Gauging interest for a Tokyo area meetup group
I'd like to gauge interest in an (english-language) Tokyo area meetup - given Tokyo's size, if a couple people are interested, it would be good to pick a location/day that's convenient for everybody. Otherwise I will announce a date and time and wait in a cafe with a bo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7WHJjL7rWoQcWXcQe/gauging-interest-for-a-tokyo-area-meetup-group |
# Fifty Shades of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
The official story: "Fifty Shades of Grey" was a Twilight fan-fiction that had over [two million downloads](http://kyxy.cbslocal.com/2012/11/20/twilight-fanfic-is-beautiful-bastard-the-new-fifty-shades-of-grey/) online. The publishing giant Vintage Press saw that number and r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tGWMRoYbuJLzCnCE4/fifty-shades-of-self-fulfilling-prophecy |
# Jokes Thread
This is a thread for rationality-related or LW-related jokes and humor. Please post jokes (new or old) in the comments.
\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-
Q: Why are Chromebooks good Bayesians?
A: Because they frequently update!
\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ifknAtXEGJbNrNF7B/jokes-thread |
# Knightian uncertainty in a Bayesian framework
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with someone advocating the use of [Knightian uncertainty](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty). I pointed out that it doesn't really matter what uncertainty you call "normal" and what uncertainty you call "Knight... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bukfeDZPHDHYRyBLB/knightian-uncertainty-in-a-bayesian-framework |
# Intuitive cooperation
This is an exposition of some of the main ideas in the paper [Robust Cooperation](/lw/hmw/robust_cooperation_in_the_prisoners_dilemma/). My goal is to make the ideas and proofs seem natural and intuitive - instead of some [mysterious](/lw/iu/mysterious_answers_to_mysterious_questions/) thing wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QrdWYbFtEDoWscEHP/intuitive-cooperation |
# “And that’s okay": accepting and owning reality
The Context
------------
I was having a conversation with [Ruby](/user/Ruby/overview/) a while back–the gist of it was that I was upset because of a nightmare I’d had the night before, and mad at myself for being upset about something that _hadn’t even really happene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oCkPozJwKT8fXajYw/and-that-s-okay-accepting-and-owning-reality |
# "All natural food" as an constrained optimisation problem
_A look at all natural foods through the lenses of Bayesianism, optimisation, and friendly utility functions._
How should we consider foods that claim to be "all natural"? Or, since that claim is a cheap signal, foods that have few ingredients, all of them e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PMAC3ZEFdjE5pPcMa/all-natural-food-as-an-constrained-optimisation-problem |
# Expected utility, unlosing agents, and Pascal's mugging
_Still very much a work in progress_
**EDIT**_: model/existence proof of unlosing agents can be [found here](/r/discussion/lw/knv/model_of_unlosing_agents/)._
Why do we bother about utility functions on Less Wrong? Well, because of results of [the New man and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gc7EiRpkgGSEZDSve/expected-utility-unlosing-agents-and-pascal-s-mugging |
# Meditations On Moloch
*\[Content note: Visions! omens! hallucinations! miracles! ecstasies! dreams! adorations! illuminations! religions!\]*
**I.**
Allan Ginsberg’s famous poem, *Moloch*:
> What sphinx of cement and aluminum bashed open their skulls and ate up their brains and imagination?
>
> Moloch! Solitude! ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TxcRbCYHaeL59aY7E/meditations-on-moloch |
# Tentative tips for people engaged in an exercise that involves some form of prediction or forecasting
_Note: This is the concluding post of my LessWrong posts related to my forecasting work for MIRI. There are a few items related to forecasting that I didn't get time to look into and might return to later. I might e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zPoRGbCjsgnA5wX9u/tentative-tips-for-people-engaged-in-an-exercise-that |
# Gaming Democracy
I live in the UK, which has a very similar voting structure to the US for the purposes of this article. Nevertheless, it may differ on the details, for which I am sorry. I also use a couple of real-life political examples which I hope are uncontroversial enough not to break the unofficial rules here... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BTdNFmE2mgcJKSZiK/gaming-democracy |
# How to treat problems of unknown difficulty
_Crossposted from the [Global Priorities Project](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/how-to-treat-problems-of-unknown-difficulty/)_
This is the first in a series of posts which take aim at the question: how should we prioritise work on problems where we have very little idea of our ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q6uFdBCQoW9XiAoZ2/how-to-treat-problems-of-unknown-difficulty |
# Sequence Announcement: Applied Causal Inference
**Applied Causal Inference for Observational Research**
This sequence is an introduction to basic causal inference. It was originally written as auxiliary notes for a course in Epidemiology, but it is relevant to almost any kind of applied statistical research, inclu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tfwcCurc3x2qAmJnn/sequence-announcement-applied-causal-inference |
# Causal Inference Sequence Part 1: Basic Terminology and the Assumptions of Causal Inference
(Part 1 of the [Sequence on Applied Causal Inference](/lw/klh/sequence_announcement_applied_causal_inference/))
In this sequence, I am going to present a theory on how we can learn about causal effects using observat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JDWTro62tRAHzvhEH/causal-inference-sequence-part-1-basic-terminology-and-the |
# Announcing the 2014 program equilibrium iterated PD tournament
Last year, AlexMennen ran a [prisoner's dilemma tournament](/lesswrong.com/lw/hmx/prisoners_dilemma_with_visible_source_code) with bots that could see each other's source code, which was dubbed a "[program equilibrium](/lw/hmx/prisoners_dilemma_with_visi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3XzfKHQTFrJBAW6jB/announcing-the-2014-program-equilibrium-iterated-pd |
# [link] Why Psychologists' Food Fight Matters
[Why Psychologists’ Food Fight Matters: Important findings” haven’t been replicated, and science may have to change its ways](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/07/replication_controversy_in_psychology_bullying_file_drawer_effect_blog_posts.sing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tFsivFkk2RzrLSZya/link-why-psychologists-food-fight-matters |
# Connection Theory Has Less Than No Evidence
I’m a member of the Bay Area Effective Altruist movement. I wanted to make my first post here to share some concerns I have about [Leverage Research](http://www.leverageresearch.org).
At parties, I often hear Leverage folks claiming they've pretty much solved psychology. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y7v63NySH2yFkPKtf/connection-theory-has-less-than-no-evidence |
# Why the tails come apart
\[I'm unsure how much this rehashes things 'everyone knows already' - if old hat, feel free to downvote into oblivion. My other motivation for the [cross-post](http://www.thepolemicalmedic.com/2014/07/tails-come-apart/) is the hope it might catch the interest of someone with a stronger mathe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dC7mP5nSwvpL65Qu5/why-the-tails-come-apart |
# Me and M&Ms
Ah, delicious dark chocolate M&Ms, colorfully filling a glass jar with your goodness. How do I love thee? About four of you an hour. Here's a brief rundown of my most recent motivation hacking experiment.
1\. Gwern has an [interesting article](http://www.gwern.net/Conscientiousness%20and%20online%20edu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iw6KwqT8obmMzXizG/me-and-m-and-ms |
# MIRI 2014 Summer Matching Challenge and one-off opportunity to donate *for free*
**Edit: This post is obsoleted by [this post](/lesswrong.com/lw/koz/miris_2014_summer_matching_challenge); please see that one instead.**
MIRI are currently holding a donation-matching challenge, until Friday 15th August. You can donat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yroi8RN4zkTzhZpbs/miri-2014-summer-matching-challenge-and-one-off-opportunity |
# Knightian Uncertainty: Bayesian Agents and the MMEU rule
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with someone advocating the use of [Knightian uncertainty](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty). We both agreed that there's no point in singling out some of your uncertainty as "special" unless you _tr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GBpdBPS8CqcC425tq/knightian-uncertainty-bayesian-agents-and-the-mmeu-rule |
# The dangers of dialectic
I'm reading _[The Last Intellectuals: American culture in the age of academe](http://amzn.to/1ooIOg2)_ by Russell Jacoby (1987). It contains many interesting and important observations and insights, but also much stupidity. By the last chapter, I was as interested in the question of how a pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ju7Z9ornuzRHraKza/the-dangers-of-dialectic |
# Six Plausible Meta-Ethical Alternatives
In this post, I list six metaethical possibilities that I think are plausible, along with some arguments or plausible stories about how/why they might be true, where that's not obvious. A lot of people seem fairly certain in their metaethical views, but I'm not and I want to c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/orhEa4wuRJHPmHFsR/six-plausible-meta-ethical-alternatives |
# Raven paradox settled to my satisfaction
The raven paradox, originated by Carl Gustav Hempel, is an apparent absurdity of inductive reasoning. Consider the hypothesis:
_H1: All ravens are black._
Inductively, one might expect that seeing many black ravens and no non-black ones is evidence for this hypothesis. As y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tAfK3ckM9yrQBLCJL/raven-paradox-settled-to-my-satisfaction |
# Moloch: optimisation, "and" vs "or", information, and sacrificial ems
Go read Yvain/Scott's [Meditations On Moloch](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/). It's one of the most beautiful, disturbing, poetical look at the future that I've ever seen.
Go read it.
Don't worry, I can wait. I'm onl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/otES8gdmFszCvZiRy/moloch-optimisation-and-vs-or-information-and-sacrificial |
# Groundwork for AGI safety engineering
_This is a very basic introduction to AGI safety work, cross-posted from the [MIRI blog](http://intelligence.org/2014/08/04/groundwork-ai-safety-engineering/). The discussion of AI V&V methods (mostly in the 'early steps' section) is probably the only part that will be new to re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8n6uDquQLv2t5joJL/groundwork-for-agi-safety-engineering |
# Multiple Factor Explanations Should Not Appear One-Sided
In [Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided](/lw/gz/policy_debates_should_not_appear_onesided/), Eliezer Yudkowsky argues that arguments on questions of fact should be one-sided, whereas arguments on policy questions should not:
> On questions of simple fa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgbJq4WrZWXe5GvFY/multiple-factor-explanations-should-not-appear-one-sided |
# MIRI's 2014 Summer Matching Challenge
(Cross-posted from [MIRI's blog](http://intelligence.org/2014/07/21/2014-summer-matching-challenge/). [MIRI](http://intelligence.org/) maintains Less Wrong, with generous help from [Trike Apps](http://trikeapps.com/), and much of the core content is written by salaried MIRI staf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MLxdKGWvpCToz7vEE/miri-s-2014-summer-matching-challenge |
# LW client-side comment improvements
All of these things I mentioned in the most recent open thread, but since the first one is directly relevant and the comment where I posted it somewhat hard to come across, I figured I'd make a post too.
Custom Comment Highlights
-------------------------
NOTE FOR FIREFOX USERS:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hvm2Gm7vLmPmQbz6F/lw-client-side-comment-improvements |
# Roles are Martial Arts for Agency
A long time ago I thought that Martial Arts simply taught you how to fight – the right way to throw a punch, the best technique for blocking and countering an attack, etc. I thought training consisted of recognizing these attacks and choosing the correct responses more quickly, as w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fNJvYD6XqnX82i4jA/roles-are-martial-arts-for-agency |
# What should a friendly AI do, in this situation?
Albert is a relatively new AI, who under the close guidance of his programmers is being permitted to slowly improve his own cognitive capability.
Albert wants to be friendly and, as a sub-goal of that, Albert wants to be transparent about his own cognitive process. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B2LaHqbKwFDAbBo9o/what-should-a-friendly-ai-do-in-this-situation |
# Why humans suck: Ratings of personality conditioned on looks, profile, and reported match
The [recent OKCupid blog](http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/we-experiment-on-human-beings/), which gwern mentioned in Media Open Thread, investigated the impact of three different factors on users' perceptions of each other: au... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yygEfqEETrhNZAfXw/why-humans-suck-ratings-of-personality-conditioned-on-looks |
# Every Paul needs a Jesus
My take on some historical religious/social/political movements:
* Jesus taught a radical and highly impractical doctrine of love and disregard for one's own welfare. Paul took control of much of the church that Jesus' charisma had built, and reworked this into something that could functi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ze2C8L887xhNGHvg/every-paul-needs-a-jesus |
# Meditations on Löb's theorem and probabilistic logic [LINK]
A post on my own blog following a MIRIx workshop from two weekends ago.
http://qmaurmann.wordpress.com/2014/08/10/meditations-on-l-and-probabilistic-logic/
Reproducing the intro:
This post is a second look at _The Definability of Truth in Probabilistic L... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gnmNnC9tFK7RveJ5A/meditations-on-loeb-s-theorem-and-probabilistic-logic-link |
# What is the difference between rationality and intelligence?
Or to ask the question another way, is there such a thing as a theory of bounded rationality, and if so, is it the same thing as a theory of general intelligence?
The LW Wiki defines general intelligence as "ability to efficiently achieve goals in a wide ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o8YF6L9sRv4k9zbfb/what-is-the-difference-between-rationality-and-intelligence |
# [LINK] Speed superintelligence?
From Toby Ord:
> Tool assisted speedruns (TAS) are when people take a game and play it frame by frame, effectively providing super reflexes and forethought, where they can spend a day deciding what to do in the next 1/60th of a second if they wish. There are some very extreme example... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/reB63AxabqyWNNwoN/link-speed-superintelligence |
# Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
The Aussie mega-meetup took place this past weekend. For it, a new kind of icebreaker was needed: one which is was not merely fun and sociable, but also instilled with the Way. Thus was the Credence Calibration Icebreaker forged.
A marriage of the [credence game](http://www.goog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8JXuxkSniD3GE9baE/credence-calibration-icebreaker-game |
# Burdens
*\[Content note: Suicide. May be guilt-inducing for people who feel like burdens. All patient characteristics have been heavily obfuscated to protect confidentiality.\]*
The DSM lists nine criteria for major depressive disorder, of which the seventh is “feelings of worthlessness or excessive or inappropriat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JP7eZYHB7aY6fA4TR/burdens |
# [meta] Future moderation and investigation of downvote abuse cases, or, I don't want to deal with this stuff
Since the [episode with Eugine_Nier](/lw/kfq/moderator_action_eugine_nier_is_now_banned_for/), I have received three private messages from different people asking me to investigate various cases of suspected ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hmc8MaThCG8xX8snT/meta-future-moderation-and-investigation-of-downvote-abuse |
# The metaphor/myth of general intelligence
_Thanks for Kaj for making me think along these lines._
It's agreed on this list that general intelligences - those that are capable of displaying high cognitive performance across a whole range of domains - are those that we need to be worrying about. This is rational: the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9gFjtHcMSrPHkcLp/the-metaphor-myth-of-general-intelligence |
# Quantified Risks of Gay Male Sex
If you are a gay male then you’ve probably worried at one point about sexually transmitted diseases. Indeed men who have sex with men have some of the highest prevalence of many of these diseases. And if you’re not a gay male, you’ve probably still thought about STDs at one point. Bu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vt2oh8WWrfbxPmMNS/quantified-risks-of-gay-male-sex |
# "Follow your dreams" as a case study in incorrect thinking
This post doesn't contain any new ideas that LWers don't already know. It's more of an attempt to organize my thoughts and have a writeup for future reference.
Here's a great [quote](http://qntm.org/daemons) from Sam Hughes, giving some examples of good and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EJ4eT72cEp7ijvQem/follow-your-dreams-as-a-case-study-in-incorrect-thinking |
# Productivity thoughts from Matt Fallshaw
At the 2014 Effective Altruism Summit in Berkeley a few weeks ago, I had the pleasure of talking to Matt Fallshaw about the things he does to be more effective. Matt is a founder of [Trike Apps](http://trikeapps.com/) (the consultancy that built Less Wrong), a founder of [Be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7XPbHTMwqgLgryF4v/productivity-thoughts-from-matt-fallshaw |
# An example of deadly non-general AI
In a [previous post](/r/discussion/lw/ksa/the_metaphormyth_of_general_intelligence/), I mused that we might be focusing too much on general intelligences, and that the route to powerful and dangerous intelligences might go through much more specialised intelligences instead. Since... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zJDMY9KSPQjiGNfA2/an-example-of-deadly-non-general-ai |
# Another type of intelligence explosion
I've [argued](/r/discussion/lw/ksa/the_metaphormyth_of_general_intelligence/) that we might have to worry about [dangerous non-general intelligences](/r/discussion/lw/kte/an_example_of_deadly_nongeneral_ai/). In a series of back and forth with Wei Dai, we agreed that some level... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uWAW2kDQg8JYvGAyD/another-type-of-intelligence-explosion |
# Fighting Biases and Bad Habits like Boggarts
**TL;DR:** Building humor into your habits for spotting and correcting errors makes the fix more enjoyable, easier to talk about and receive social support, and limits the danger of a contempt spiral.
One of the most reliably bad decisions I've made on a regular basis i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jn3R6ybSrMYguDBNw/fighting-biases-and-bad-habits-like-boggarts |
# Conservation of Expected Jury Probability
The New York Times has a [calculator](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/08/20/nyregion/jury-duty-quiz.html) to explain how getting on a jury works. They have a slider at the top indicating how likely each of the two lawyers think you are to side with them, and as you a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nYAS4oPpkzTwghwei/conservation-of-expected-jury-probability |
# Announcing The Effective Altruism Forum
The Effective Altruism Forum will be launched at effective-altruism.com on September 10, British time.
Now seems like a good time time to discuss why we might need an Effective Altruism Forum, and how it might compare to LessWrong.
**About the Effective Altruism Forum**
The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iD742Sb8bxnbGgM2D/announcing-the-effective-altruism-forum |
# Persistent Idealism
When I talk to people about [earning to give](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/31/join-wall-street-save-the-world/), it's common to hear worries about "backsliding". Yes, you say you're going to go make a lot of money and donate it, but once you're surrounded by rich cowork... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FWZSGzsyvXijNBtG5/persistent-idealism |
# Knightian uncertainty: a rejection of the MMEU rule
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with someone advocating the use of [Knightian uncertainty](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty). He (who I'm anonymizing as Sir Percy) made suggestions that are useful to most bounded reasoners, and which ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SEov2u5Y7mJTPaTLK/knightian-uncertainty-a-rejection-of-the-mmeu-rule |
# Changes to my workflow
About 18 months ago I made a [post here](/lw/fux/my_workflow/) on my workflow. I've received a handful of requests for follow-up, so I thought I would make another post detailing changes since then. I expect this post to be less useful than the last one.
For the most part, the overall outline... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DDDNqq7QuwoseDvgf/changes-to-my-workflow |
# [LINK] Could a Quantum Computer Have Subjective Experience?
Yet another exceptionally interesting [blog post](http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=1951) by Scott Aaronson, describing his talk at the Quantum Foundations of a Classical Universe workshop, videos of which should be posted soon. Despite the disclaimer "*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ZBH7b2okoqS2sf3h/link-could-a-quantum-computer-have-subjective-experience |
# Hal Finney has just died.
Hal Finney has just died.
[http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/2014-August/082585.html](http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/2014-August/082585.html)
[http://lesswrong.com/lw/1ab/dying_outside/](/lw/1ab/dying_outside/)
I'm very sad to see him go. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4aNCuqCmPMb6J3yox/hal-finney-has-just-died |
# Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later.
Some of the comments on the [link](/lw/js0/link_poking_the_bear_podcast/) by James_Miller exactly six months ago provided very specific estimates of how the events might turn out:
James_Miller:
* The odds of Russian interv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hmSBqMZhNxQv3fAw9/calibrating-your-probability-estimates-of-world-events |
# The Great Filter is early, or AI is hard
Attempt at the briefest content-full Less Wrong post:
Once AI is developed, it could "[easily](/lw/hll/to_reduce_astronomical_waste_take_your_time_then/)" [colonise](/lw/g1s/ufai_cannot_be_the_great_filter/) the universe. So the [Great Filter](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/69tRTQX4Ce5jkSdqk/the-great-filter-is-early-or-ai-is-hard |
# [question] Recommendations for fasting
I consider fasting for two weeks in October, but I'm unclear about it being beneficial in general or for what kind of fasting it might be beneficial and healthy. Thus this is a kind of request for rational discussion of this topic.
I looked for relevant LW posts but couldn't f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3i6XqtnzfAi2GACej/question-recommendations-for-fasting |
# Funding cannibalism motivates concern for overheads
**Summary: **Overhead expenses' (CEO salary, percentage spent on fundraising) are often deemed a poor measure of charity effectiveness by Effective Altruists, and so they disprefer means of charity evaluation which rely on these. However, 'funding cannibalism' sugg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7sR3fjJojD7hjTC6p/funding-cannibalism-motivates-concern-for-overheads |
# [LINK] Article in the Guardian about CSER, mentions MIRI and paperclip AI
[http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/30/saviours-universe-four-unlikely-men-save-world](http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/30/saviours-universe-four-unlikely-men-save-world "The scientific A-Team saving the world from ki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/szaqnDaMfboWreTfy/link-article-in-the-guardian-about-cser-mentions-miri-and |
# Solstice 2014 / Rational Ritual Retreat - A Call to Arms
[](http://humanistculture.com)
Summary:
_ • I'm beginning work on the 2014 Winter Solstice. There are a lot of jobs to be done, and the more people who can dedicate serious t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w74rih378faqmNtDs/solstice-2014-rational-ritual-retreat-a-call-to-arms |
# Robin Hanson's "Overcoming Bias" posts as an e-book.
At Luke Muehlhauser's request, I wrote a script to scrape all of Robin Hanson's posts to [Overcoming Bias](http://www.overcomingbias.com/) into an e-book; here's a first beta release. Please comment here with any problems—posts in the wrong order, broken links, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tk6hKNyCSfDP7ayu7/robin-hanson-s-overcoming-bias-posts-as-an-e-book |
# Superintelligence reading group
In just over two weeks I will be running an online reading group on Nick Bostrom's _[Superintelligence](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence)_, on behalf of [MIRI](http://intelligence.org/). It will be here on LessWrong. This is an advance warning, so you can [get a copy](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QDmzDZ9CEHrKQdvcn/superintelligence-reading-group |
# Overly convenient clusters, or: Beware sour grapes
**Related to**: [Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided](/lw/gz/policy_debates_should_not_appear_onesided/)
There is [a well-known fable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%20Fox%20and%20the%20Grapes) which runs thus:
_“Driven by hunger, a fox tried to reach so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DP8HCLcSPSywDz76e/overly-convenient-clusters-or-beware-sour-grapes |
# Bayesianism for humans: "probable enough"
(followup to [What Bayesianism has taught me?](/lw/iat/what_bayesianism_taught_me/) and [Bayesianism for Humans](/lw/iwb/bayesianism_for_humans/))
There are two insights from Bayesianism which occurred to me and which I hadn't seen anywhere else before.
I like lists i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LCNdGLGpq89oRQBih/bayesianism-for-humans-probable-enough |
# Bayesianism for humans: prosaic priors
(followup to [What Bayesianism has taught me?](/lw/iat/what_bayesianism_taught_me/) and [Bayesianism for Humans](/lw/iwb/bayesianism_for_humans/), relevant to [Boring Advice Repository](/lw/gx5/boring_advice_repository/) )
There are two insights from Bayesianism which occurred... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LB4yT86wJnZFCBW3T/bayesianism-for-humans-prosaic-priors |
# The Octopus, the Dolphin and Us: a Great Filter tale
Is intelligence hard to evolve? Well, we're intelligent, so it must be easy... except that only an intelligent species would be able to ask that question, so we run straight into the problem of anthropics. Any being that asked that question would have to be intell... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GMqZ2ofMnxwhoa7fD/the-octopus-the-dolphin-and-us-a-great-filter-tale |
# What steep learning curve do you wish you'd climbed sooner?
This is the question asked by [John Cook](http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2014/09/03/steep-learning-curves-you-wish-youd-climbed-sooner/) on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/JohnDCook). He lists responses from different people:
> * R
> * Version control
> *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dXyBiizYzdxS26yAg/what-steep-learning-curve-do-you-wish-you-d-climbed-sooner |
# Goal retention discussion with Eliezer
Although I feel that Nick Bostrom’s new book “Superintelligence” is generally awesome and a well-needed milestone for the field, I do have one quibble: both he and Steve Omohundro appear to be more convinced than I am by the assumption that an AI will naturally tend to retain i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FtNFhuXXtmSjnNvE7/goal-retention-discussion-with-eliezer |
# I'm holding a birthday fundraiser
**EDIT: The fundraiser was successfully completed, raising the full $500 for worthwhile charities. Yay!**
Today's my birthday! And per [Peter Hurford's](/user/peter_hurford/overview/) suggestion, I'm holding a [birthday fundraiser](http://www.youcaring.com/nonprofits/kaj-s-donating... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvsFg7xCsFBjos56J/i-m-holding-a-birthday-fundraiser |
# A reason to see the future
I just learned of [The Future Library project](http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/sep/05/margaret-atwood-new-work-unseen-century-future-library). In short, famous authors will be asked to write new, original fiction that will not be released until 2114. First one announced was Margaret ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFagkzCboLLhaicEK/a-reason-to-see-the-future |
# Talking to yourself: A useful thinking tool that seems understudied and underdiscussed
I have returned from a particularly fruitful Google search, with unexpected results.
My question was simple. I was pretty sure that talking to myself aloud makes me temporarily better at solving problems that need a lot of workin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DSfH27utWBPRCYjod/talking-to-yourself-a-useful-thinking-tool-that-seems |
# [Link] 3 Short Walking Breaks Can Reverse Harm From 3 Hours of Sitting
I found the below link which is in the spirit of [Lifestyle interventions to increase longevity](/lw/jrt/lifestyle_interventions_to_increase_longevity/):
[3 Short Walking Breaks Can Reverse Harm From 3 Hours of Sitting](http://journals.lww.com/a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8YBthcJ88aHSKoeAh/link-3-short-walking-breaks-can-reverse-harm-from-3-hours-of |
# Society Is Fixed, Biology Is Mutable
Today during an otherwise terrible lecture on ADHD I realized something important we get sort of backwards.
There’s this stereotype that the Left believes that human characteristics are socially determined, and therefore mutable. And social problems are easy to fix, through thin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HafkDSNdtMzptzcN/society-is-fixed-biology-is-mutable |
# Overcoming Decision Anxiety
I get pretty anxious about open-ended decisions. I often spend an unacceptable amount of time agonizing over things like what design options to get on a custom suit, or what kind of job I want to pursue, or what apartment I want to live in. Some of these decisions are obviously important ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWnepYhtQnr2ub7sg/overcoming-decision-anxiety |
# [meta] New LW moderator: Viliam_Bur
Some time back, [I wrote that](/lw/krw/meta_future_moderation_and_investigation_of/) I was unwilling to continue with investigations into mass downvoting, and asked people for suggestions on how to deal with them from now on. The [top-voted proposal in that thread](/lw/krw/meta_fu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vrnB5nPrjTXuwv5nN/meta-new-lw-moderator-viliam_bur |
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