text stringlengths 300 320k | source stringlengths 52 154 |
|---|---|
# Nightmare of the Perfectly Principled
My actual literal nightmares about civilizational collapse somehow manage to be insanely optimistic about human nature.
I dreamt that in response to the news of the Trumps’ probable [successful intimidation or bribery](https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-ivanka-trump-a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rbQmsH7wAY8Ty7tqK/nightmare-of-the-perfectly-principled |
# Our values are underdefined, changeable, and manipulable
_[Crossposted](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1698) at Intelligent Agent Forum._
When asked whether "communist" journalists could report freely from the USA, only 36% of 1950 Americans agreed. A follow up question about Amerian journalists reporting fre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCg7NeKQ7MycXWpYd/our-values-are-underdefined-changeable-and-manipulable |
# Announcing the AI Alignment Prize
Stronger than human artificial intelligence would be dangerous to humanity. It is vital any such intelligence’s goals are aligned with humanity's goals. Maximizing the chance that this happens is a difficult, important and under-studied problem.
To encourage more and better work o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YDLGLnzJTKMEtti7Z/announcing-the-ai-alignment-prize |
# Moloch's Toolbox (1/2)
**Follow-up to:** [An Equilibrium of No Free Energy](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/yPLr2tnXbiFXkMWvk/an-equilibrium-of-no-free-energy)
* * *
There’s a toolbox of reusable concepts for analyzing systems I would call “inadequate”—the causes of civilizational failure, _some_ of which corres... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x5ASTMPKPowLKpLpZ/moloch-s-toolbox-1-2 |
# 50 Ways To Leave Your Therapist: Termination and why it's important
I've heard a number of people talk negatively about professionals they feel stuck with. "I feel like my dentist is judging me for not flossing enough", "I don't feel like I can be honest with my doctor", "I wish my hair stylist didn't ask so many qu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hni7WTFQEqNcP5LZv/50-ways-to-leave-your-therapist-termination-and-why-it-s |
# Zeroing Out
Related to (Eliezer Yudkowski at Less Wrong): [An Equilibrium of No Free Energy](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/yPLr2tnXbiFXkMWvk/an-equilibrium-of-no-free-energy)
Related to (Satvik Beri at Less Wrong): [Competitive Truth Seeking](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/HFq7ydko9gLD45yYv/competitive-truth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/giadk42qc6NTLM8DK/zeroing-out |
# Pascal's mugging in reward learning
This is the last post on the current value/reward learning series. I'll just bring up the danger of Pascal's mugging in reward learning.
I've already shown how you can use [the (p, R) model](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/rtphbZbMHTLCepd6d/humans-can-be-assigned-any-values-wha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZBwx9sEwdHFNhZduT/pascal-s-mugging-in-reward-learning |
# Acknowledging Rationalist Angst
Not all advice can work for everyone, and not all techniques are universally applicable. That being said, here’s a post that would have been incredibly useful for me-three-years-ago to have read, and hopeful it strikes home for some people who read it. I’ll start with drawing your... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mEwodogJGCnidD6KA/acknowledging-rationalist-angst |
# Moloch's Toolbox (2/2)
**Follow-up to:** [Moloch's Toolbox (1/2)](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/x5ASTMPKPowLKpLpZ/moloch-s-toolbox-1-2)
* * *
vii. Sticky traditions in belief-dependent Nash equilibria without common knowledge
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PRAyQaiMWg2La7XQy/moloch-s-toolbox-2-2 |
# Confessions of a Slacker
Crossposting the entire thing from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2017/11/07/confessions-of-a-slacker/) in honor of the [Slack sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/sequences/HXkpm9b8o964jbQ89).
* * *
Go read [Slack](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HXkpm9b8o964jbQ89/p/yLLkWMDbC9ZNKbjDG), ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bhfPQqkq5dAsSz3qG/confessions-of-a-slacker |
# Does Age Bring Wisdom?
**I.**
I turn 33 today. I can only hope that age brings wisdom.
We’ve been talking recently about the high-level frames and heuristics that organize other concepts. They’re hard to transmit, and you have to rediscover them on your own, sometimes with the help of [lots of different explanatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WdkLDpBGMCWhfByAY/does-age-bring-wisdom |
# Attending to Now
I live among a community of humans who believe that they need to save the world.
They aren't good enough. They may still save the world completely on accident, but ultimately, on the measure, the odds are pretty grim.
And they know this. All around me I see people facing their task with grim d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/upoc7i8iPx7G2NTcL/attending-to-now |
# Modesty and diversity: a concrete suggestion
In online discussions, the number of upvotes or likes a contribution receives is often highly correlated with the social status of the author within that community. This makes the community less epistemically diverse, and can contribute to feelings of groupthink or [hero ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TRAZz3vnX8cmXCwnj/modesty-and-diversity-a-concrete-suggestion |
# Bet Payoff 1: OpenPhil/MIRI Grant Increase
_takes a deep breath_
It has come to one of those most special times. A time when a long-term bet is resolved.
Gregory Lewis (aka [Thrasymachus](http://lesserwrong.com/user/thrasymachus)) made a bet with me that the Open Philanthropy Project would not report an increased ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YcNnpcYoxc2qCwjjr/bet-payoff-1-openphil-miri-grant-increase |
# Reading Papers in Undergrad
I went to school for electrical engineering, and in my capstone electromagnetic theory course I encountered a problem that I needed to read papers to learn about. I asked my professor for his advice on _how_ to read them, owing to my lack of expertise, and he recommended the following:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cQhMhjsEHkcvofiEr/reading-papers-in-undergrad |
# Living in an Inadequate World
**Follow-up to:** Moloch's Toolbox ([pt. 1](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/x5ASTMPKPowLKpLpZ/moloch-s-toolbox-1-2), [pt. 2](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/PRAyQaiMWg2La7XQy/moloch-s-toolbox-2-2))
* * *
Be warned: Trying to put together a background model like the one I sketched ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pRibkeqBa2AxrpgT6/living-in-an-inadequate-world |
# Productivity: Working towards a summary of what we know
[Epistemic effort](http://lesswrong.com/lw/o6m/epistemic_effort/)
=================================================================
* Spent 20-30 hours researching what we know about productivity. About an hour a day for two weeks, plus a few more days where... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P3zrurj5hHKFKDL3M/productivity-working-towards-a-summary-of-what-we-know |
# Lizard Jockeying for Fun and Profit
If this works, it will serve as a kind of introduction to a series - or _sequence_, if you will - on social interaction and strategic incorporation of one's emotions into one's reason. But first let's throw this out there and see what happens, shall we?
**Part the zeroth: a cavea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NsiPGT7iFQ8wGtGoA/lizard-jockeying-for-fun-and-profit |
# 'X is not about Y' is not about psychology
As Robin Hanson [says](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/politics-isnt-a.html):
> _Food isn’t about Nutrition_
> _Clothes aren’t about Comfort_
> _Bedrooms aren’t about Sleep_
> _Marriage isn’t about Romance_
> _Talk isn’t about Info_
> _Laughter isn’t about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhLPeshg5pyELTjm6/x-is-not-about-y-is-not-about-psychology |
# Blind Empiricism
**Follow-up to:** [Living in an Inadequate World](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/pRibkeqBa2AxrpgT6/living-in-an-inadequate-world)
* * *
The thesis that needs to be contrasted with modesty is not the assertion that everyone can beat their civilization all the time. It’s not that we should be _th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6n9aKApfLre5WWvpG/blind-empiricism |
# Against Modest Epistemology
**Follow-up to:** [Blind Empiricism](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/6n9aKApfLre5WWvpG/blind-empiricism)
* * *
Modest epistemology doesn’t need to reflect a skepticism about causal models as such. It can manifest instead as a wariness about putting weight down on _one’s own_ causal mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/svoD5KLKHyAKEdwPo/against-modest-epistemology |
# Towards an Axiological Approach to AI Alignment
_NB: [Originally posted](https://mapandterritory.org/towards-an-axiological-approach-to-ai-alignment-4993d044d1b8) on [Map and Territory](https://mapandterritory.org/) on Medium, so some of the internal series links go there._
AI alignment research currently operates ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NwxjvegAbLaBJ3TvC/towards-an-axiological-approach-to-ai-alignment-1 |
# The Darwin Game
Epistemic Status: True story
The plan is that this post will begin the sequence Zbybpu’f Nezl.
In college I once took a class called Rational Choice. Because obviously.
Each week we got the rules for, played and discussed a game. It was awesome.
For the grand finale, and to determine the winner o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CnDsQAdzmDMF2LrY7/the-darwin-game |
# Creating Welfare Biology: A Research Proposal
\[This idea came out of an ACE research workshop. I would like to thank Zach Groff and Mark Budolfson for brainstorming this idea with me, as well as ACE for offering me the opportunity to think of it.\]
\[Crossposted with no modifications from [my blog](https://thingof... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mhXW9FFAiBpx3CnHK/creating-welfare-biology-a-research-proposal |
# Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence
**Follow-up to:** [Against Modest Epistemology](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/svoD5KLKHyAKEdwPo/against-modest-epistemology)
* * *
I’ve now given my critique of modesty as a set of explicit doctrines. I’ve tried to give the background theory, which I believe is not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o28fkhcZsBhhgfGjx/status-regulation-and-anxious-underconfidence |
# Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
**Follow-up to:** [Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/o28fkhcZsBhhgfGjx/status-regulation-and-anxious-underconfidence)
* * *
Somehow, someone is going to horribly misuse all the advice that is contained within this book.
Nothing I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NtyBaxQShNFm92xnS/against-shooting-yourself-in-the-foot |
# Increasing day to day conversational rationality
One of the things that rationality has given me is a greater appreciation for the variety of ways one can be wrong. It often seems like people who haven’t given this topic much thought have a model of “being wrong” as one-dimensional quality someone can have with ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ufn3eQWfLCLhg5m4u/increasing-day-to-day-conversational-rationality |
# The Happy Dance Problem
_[\[Cross-posted from IAFF.\]](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1713)_
Since the invention of logical induction, people have been trying to figure out what logically updateless reasoning could be. This is motivated by the idea that, in the realm of Bayesian uncertainty (IE, empirical un... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HY94LBqekihnx85WQ/the-happy-dance-problem-1 |
# The Happy Dance Problem
Since the invention of logical induction, people have been trying to figure out what logically updateless reasoning could be. This is motivated by the idea that, in the realm of Bayesian uncertainty (IE, empirical uncertainty), updateless decision theory is the simple solution to the problem ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037550e/the-happy-dance-problem |
# Mapping Another's Universe
Let's say you are reading a book about people with magical abilities. As a young child, their abilities manifest spontaneously (accidentally breaking something with their mind, flying instead of falling, etc). Then, they are taken away off somewhere to learn to hone their skills. There... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CoLq62i3A7f4j3Ei4/mapping-another-s-universe |
# Entitlement, Covert Contracts, Social Libertarianism, and Related Concepts
\[Crossposted from [my blog](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/11/17/entitlement-covert-contracts-social-libertarianism-and-related-concepts/) with minor changes. I strongly prefer all commentary related to the culture war or dating ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxPQKDqrFcBNGuTec/entitlement-covert-contracts-social-libertarianism-and |
# Hogwarts House Primaries
\[Edited after publication for clarity.\]
I used to get into a lot of really frustrating arguments about normative ethics where the person I was talking to and I were just talking past each other. When I found the [Sorting Hat Chats system](http://sortinghatchats.tumblr.com/) for classifyin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F6nNrZwzMYgztJvxc/hogwarts-house-primaries |
# The Darwin Pregame
Epistemic Status: True story
This is intended as post two of the sequence Zbybpu’f Nezl.
Previously (required): [The Darwin Game](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/11/15/the-darwin-game/)
I
This is my reconstruction of my thoughts at the time.
The Darwin Game requires surviving the early, mid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KqwCeZSAe7EqqwLiR/the-darwin-pregame |
# Sunset at Noon
*A meandering series of vignettes.*
*I have a sense that I've halfway finished a journey. I expect this essay to be most useful to people similarly-shaped-to-me, who are also undergoing that journey and could use some reassurance that there's an actual destination worth striving for.*
1. *Gratitude... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2x7fwbwb35sG8QmEt/sunset-at-noon |
# The Archipelago Model of Community Standards
_Epistemic Status: My best guess. I don't know if this will work but it seems like the obvious experiment to try more of._
_[Epistemic Effort](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/oDy27zfRf8uAbJR6M/epistemic-effort): Spent several months thinking casually, 25ish minutes con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/97LgacucCxmyjYiNT/the-archipelago-model-of-community-standards |
# Hero Licensing
I expect most readers to know me either as MIRI's co-founder and the originator of a number of the early research problems in [AI alignment](https://intelligence.org/2017/04/12/ensuring/), or as the author of _[Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality](http://hpmor.com)_, a popular work of _Harry P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dhj9dhiwhq3DX6W8z/hero-licensing |
# Civility Is Never Neutral
\[Crossposted from [my blog](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/11/22/civility-is-never-neutral/) with minor edits, mostly to get rid of culture war stuff.\]
There are a lot of people I know who say something like “the free market of ideas is really important and we need to seek trut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RhEEYwKMbK7rSAu69/civility-is-never-neutral |
# A Day in Utopia
\[Crossposted from [my blog](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/11/21/a-day-in-utopia/) at Habryka's suggestion; original post suggestion comes from Stuart Armstrong. This is my utopia which is designed for me; if this really bothers you, imagine that there are lots of other interesting cities ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZxKwKp7WzhtnsQt3r/a-day-in-utopia |
# List of civilisational inadequacy
In the spirit of experimentation I want to have a thread where we list examples of gross civilizational inadequacy.
There's subcomment for meta comments on the thread, otherwise I encourage you to have one top-level comment per example of civilizational inadequacy. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BhGSXuvTvEtYtJXBe/list-of-civilisational-inadequacy |
# Gears Level & Policy Level
Inside view vs outside view has been a fairly useful intuition-pump for rationality. However, the dichotomy has a lot of shortcomings. We've just gotten [a whole sequence](https://www.lesserwrong.com/sequences/oLGCcbnvabyibnG9d) about failures of a cluster of practices called _modest epist... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vKbAWFZRDBhyD6K6A/gears-level-and-policy-level |
# Timeless Modesty?
Looking back at my description of [policy-level thinking](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/vKbAWFZRDBhyD6K6A/gears-level-and-policy-level), one might charge it of the same crime as outside view; namely, being overly likely to lead to modest epistemology:
> Policy-level thinking, on the other hand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4vv95qgg9pGWo4eBk/timeless-modesty |
# The Darwin Results
Epistemic Status: True story (numbers are best recollections)
This is post three in the sequence Zbybpu’f Nezl.
Previously (required): [The Darwin Game](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/11/15/the-darwin-game/), [The Darwin Pregame](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/11/21/the-darwin-pregame/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LDngQb2AJsjTZnWEP/the-darwin-results |
# Security Mindset and Ordinary Paranoia
**Follow-up to:** [AI Alignment: Why It’s Hard, and Where to Start](https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/)
* * *
(amber_, a philanthropist interested in a more reliable Internet, and_ coral_, a computer security professional, are at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8gqrbnW758qjHFTrH/security-mindset-and-ordinary-paranoia |
# An Intuitive Explanation of Inferential Distance
Let us represent our beliefs as nodes in a network. Most nodes in your network of beliefs have dependencies, they are connected to other beliefs the truth value of which they are contingent on.
Picture a subset of your network of beliefs, let us take a simplified sec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DdoDzNT8Y99aEAdvh/an-intuitive-explanation-of-inferential-distance-1 |
# Security Mindset and the Logistic Success Curve
**Follow-up to:** [Security Mindset and Ordinary Paranoia](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/8gqrbnW758qjHFTrH/security-mindset-and-ordinary-paranoia)
* * *
(_Two days later, Amber returns with another question._)
amber: Uh, say, Coral. How important is security mi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cpdsMuAHSWhWnKdog/security-mindset-and-the-logistic-success-curve |
# You Have the Right to Think
Epistemic Status: Public service announcement. We will then return to regularly scheduled programming.
Written partly as a response to (Robin Hanson): [Why be Contrarian](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/11/why-be-contrarian.html), responding to the book [_Inadequate Equilibria_](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3z9KM3fjKtzGidRLL/you-have-the-right-to-think |
# USA v Progressive 1979 excerpt
In 1979, an interesting judgment was made regarding the publication of an alleged nuclear infohazard. Here is an excerpt from that preliminary injunction ruling, which was authored by Robert W. Warren, then a Wisconsin Eastern District judge.
\-\-\-
"The Secretary of State states tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TKW5PD8fS2ej7JqxG/usa-v-progressive-1979-excerpt |
# Big Advance in Infinite Ethics
Summary
It is possible that our universe is infinite in both time and space. We might therefore reasonably consider the following question: given some sequences < refresh to render LaTeX > and < refresh to render LaTeX > (where each < refresh to render LaTeX > represents the welfare o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tW37uofzXd7ngW8Np/big-advance-in-infinite-ethics |
# Free Speech as Legal Right vs. Ethical Value
\[Crossposted from [my blog](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/11/28/free-speech-as-legal-right-versus-ethical-value/) with minor edits.\]
It is very annoying that the English language does not distinguish between free speech the ethical value and free speech the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mB3xPZtyWvGN8DaSH/free-speech-as-legal-right-vs-ethical-value |
# The Right to be Wrong
_Epistemic Status: pretty confident_
Zvi recently came out with a post [“You Have the Right to Think”](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/11/27/you-have-the-right-to-think/), in response to Robin Hanson’s [“Why be Contrarian?”](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/11/why-be-contrarian.html), itse... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G8MeiXWeECJseiWFF/the-right-to-be-wrong |
# LDL 7: I wish I had a map
When I was an undergraduate considering going to graduate school in mathematics, one thing that I knew a reasonably amount about and spent a good amount of time thinking about was what the field of math looked like overall.
In very, very broad strokes I knew that geometry, algebra, and ana... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2AqgYRt2CBLBnjHS2/ldl-7-i-wish-i-had-a-map |
# Examples of Mitigating Assumption Risk
One of the subskills mentioned in [Eliezer's Security Mindset post](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/8gqrbnW758qjHFTrH/security-mindset-and-ordinary-paranoia) is mitigating assumption risk–that is, the risk of losing utility because some of your assumptions are wrong. There ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfXp6ggeSMqnXTM3Q/examples-of-mitigating-assumption-risk |
# DeepMind article: AI Safety Gridworlds
DeepMind authors present a set of toy environments that highlight various AI safety desiderata. Each is a 10x10 grid in which an agent completes a task by walking around obstacles, touching switches, etc. Some of the tests have a reward function and a hidden 'better-specified' ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k6HSxKKaHaf3aMiwi/deepmind-article-ai-safety-gridworlds |
# Policy Selection Solves Most Problems
It seems like logically updateless reasoning is what we would want in order to solve many decision-theory problems. I show that several of the problems which seem to require updateless reasoning can instead be solved by selecting a policy with a logical inductor that's run a sma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037550c/policy-selection-solves-most-problems |
# Cash transfers are not necessarily wealth transfers
Here’s a common argument:
The problem with the poor is that they haven’t got enough money. There’s ample empirical evidence backing this up. Therefore, the obviously-correct poverty intervention is to simply give the poor cash. You might be able to do better than ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cw5voHpqoZMyz4DWg/cash-transfers-are-not-necessarily-wealth-transfers |
# Comment on SSC's Review of Inadequate Equilibria
Copying over my comment from [the SSC review](http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/11/30/book-review-inadequate-equilibria/), which otherwise may get lost in the fog of comments there.
* * *
Super fun review!
> _I found this part to be the biggest disappointment of this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gAYH4JjFrwdmPrkYa/comment-on-ssc-s-review-of-inadequate-equilibria |
# MIRI's 2017 Fundraiser
MIRI’s **2017 fundraiser** is live through the end of December! Our progress so far (updated live):
* * *
[](http://intelligence.org/donate/#donation-methods)
[Donate Now](https://intelligence.org/donate/#d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7SFzsTNTw7KJy9cn/miri-s-2017-fundraiser |
# TSR #3 Entrainment: Discussion
Epitsemic effort: 3 hours of writing, 15 min thinking on the outline at the end of the post.
Sebastian Marshall (used to post to lesswrong as lionhearted) writes The Strategic Review (TSR), which has recently migrated from a newsletter to a Medium blog. I don’t know how many LW pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFybFXSFisTQqb8Mm/tsr-3-entrainment-discussion |
# More Dakka
Epistemic Status: Hopefully enough Dakka
Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book [Inadequate Eqilibria](https://equilibriabook.com/inadequacy-and-modesty/) is excellent. I recommend reading it, if you haven’t done so. Three recent reviews are [Scott Aaronson’s](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=3535), [Robin Hanson... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z8usYeKX7dtTWsEnk/more-dakka |
# Philosophy of Numbers (part 1)
This post is the first in a [series of things](https://www.lesserwrong.com/sequences/cuFK7pjwdDEoQewid) that I think would be fun to discuss on LW. Part two is [here](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/mHNzpX38HkZQrdYn3/philosophy-of-numbers-part-2).
* * *
It seems like there are (at ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wX3YGTNvwxYWx5Cuj/philosophy-of-numbers-part-1 |
# Book review: The Upside of Your Dark Side: Why Being Your Whole Self–Not Just Your “Good” Self–Drives Success and Fulfillment
_[The Upside of Your Dark Side: Why Being Your Whole Self–Not Just Your “Good” Self–Drives Success and Fulfillment](https://smile.amazon.com/Upside-Your-Dark-Side-Self-Drives-ebook/dp/B00INIX... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Po4dhRT9sL3YE9rfo/book-review-the-upside-of-your-dark-side-why-being-your |
# Show LW: Diaspora Project Map and Preregistration Database
Hi everyone,
I and a handful of other folks have been compiling a [list of different LessWrong Diaspora projects](https://namespace.obormot.net/Main/DiasporaProjectMap). I started it after someone asked me how they could volunteer for LessWrong and I didn't... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fDhy3PXvJ6sjBJQB8/show-lw-diaspora-project-map-and-preregistration-database |
# Updates from Boston
There isn't enough sharing of positive and negative results within the rationality community < refresh to render LaTeX > . I suspect this results in a fair amount of wasted effort as people explore the same dead ends, and a fair amount of lost potential when more effective tools don't get shared ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QkoRbPv4XmZFQaSCz/updates-from-boston |
# The World as Phenomena
_NB: [Originally posted](https://mapandterritory.org/the-world-as-phenomena-47d27d593016) to [Map and Territory](https://mapandterritory.org/) on Medium, so some of the internal series links go there._
_NB: I made some mistakes in this post about my use of academic philosophy terms in ways th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nfMfxdXKjhhTJD3Jd/the-world-as-phenomena-1 |
# Strategic High Skill Immigration
### How to improve the global economy, increase strategic stability, and safeguard the far future.
**Part 1: The current situation: shifting balance of power**
When trying to help people at scale, it is often prudent to go beyond direct interventions and to seek equilibria which ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aB3WP4JbdC4i8qaRH/strategic-high-skill-immigration |
# MIRI's 2017 Fundraiser
**Update 2017-12-27:** We've blown past our 3rd and final target, and reached the matching cap of $300,000 for the [$2 million Matching Challenge](https://intelligence.org/2017/12/14/end-of-the-year-matching/)! Thanks so much to everyone who supported us!
All donations made before 23:59 PST o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/shy6XPhbrh9az6NG6/miri-s-2017-fundraiser |
# Fixing science via a basic income
I ran across [Ed Hagen’s article “Academic success is either a crapshoot or a scam”](https://grasshoppermouse.github.io/2017/12/05/academic-success-is-either-a-crapshoot-or-a-scam/), which pointed out that all the methodological discussion about science’s replication crisis is kinda... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mwMKMHK7ufqDGEd4S/fixing-science-via-a-basic-income |
# Rules of variety
At some point in high school I noticed an interesting thing about my choice of essay topics: it was definitely not allowed to be the same choice of topics that anyone else had.
One reason this seemed strange at the time was that I had never explicitly noticed this constraint or intended it, even th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XTMqqrkCzwK2GHFyc/rules-of-variety |
# Success and Fail Rates of Monthly Policies
_Inspired by [Updates from Boston](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/QkoRbPv4XmZFQaSCz/updates-from-boston)._
One of the more valuable interventions I tested in the last couple years is the idea of setting a "Monthly Policy" and a "Monthly Theme." I'll share the basic proc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Abfyno2jNpDomFvmr/success-and-fail-rates-of-monthly-policies |
# Eternal Winter,
Endless Light
_This was my Moment of Darkness speech for the NYC 2017 Solstice. The overall theme for the event was "generational knowledge."_
* * *
To pass generational knowledge into the future, you need three things. You need mentors, sharing the most important wisdom they have to offer. You ne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTCYjbrX4Jmpss7bf/eternal-winter-endless-light |
# Book Review: The Captured Economy
Epistemic Status: The choir
On Tyler Cohen’s claim that it was an important book, I read [The Captured Economy](https://smile.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_c_2_13?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=the+captured+economy&sprefix=the+captured+%2Caps%2C124&crid=3E00EZLFNCJUG) by ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PrrsNAriZYXkzJpgp/book-review-the-captured-economy |
# Melting Gold, and Organizational Capacity
_Epistemic Status: Confident about the problem, solution and exact mechanism is more of an untested hypothesis._
There's a saying for communities: if you're not gaining members, you're losing members. Sometimes you hit _just_ the right size and you'd prefer things stay exac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mL7PJKu3NEkHLZ9vP/melting-gold-and-organizational-capacity |
# Quick thoughts on empathic metaethics
_Years ago, I wrote an unfinished sequence of posts called "[No-Nonsense Metaethics](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/No-Nonsense_Metaethics)." My last post, [Pluralistic Moral Reductionism](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/3zDX3f3QTepNeZHGc/pluralistic-moral-reductionism), said... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FZ5aTJFXZMpPL7ycK/quick-thoughts-on-empathic-metaethics |
# 12/12/2017 Update: Creating Sequences
Over the past few weeks, we've been pushing updates that improve LW 2.0's Sequence functionality, as well as cleaning up some of the less well known sequences.
Those updates are now complete and ready for general use. Highlights include:
The Library
-----------
If you click o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yZZNv3yx5hBWztLeM/12-12-2017-update-creating-sequences |
# Oracle paper
Available on the arXiv, my paper on [two types of Oracles](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.05541) (AIs constrained to answering questions only), and how to use them more safely.
> An Oracle is a design for potentially high power artificial intelligences (AIs), where the AI is made safe by restricting it to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcbpeYJMdvxCpTocg/oracle-paper |
# Guarding Slack vs Substance
Builds on concepts from:
* [Slack](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/yLLkWMDbC9ZNKbjDG/slack)
* [Goodheart's Imperius](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/tq2JGX4ojnrkxL7NF/goodhart-s-imperius)
* [Nobody Does the Thing They are Supposedly Doing](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/8iAJ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MeWtcyX8wHxjpDAeE/guarding-slack-vs-substance |
# Against the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Penalty
\[Roughly the second half of this is a reply to: [Pascal's Muggle](http://lesswrong.com/lw/h8k/pascals_muggle_infinitesimal_priors_and_strong/)\]
There's an assumption that people often make when thinking about decision theory, which is that utility sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8FRzErffqEW9gDCCW/against-the-linear-utility-hypothesis-and-the-leverage |
# Meaning wars
Originally posted: http://bearlamp.com.au/meaning-wars/
Everyone thinks the attention game is about attention. It is (of course) but it isn't. It's about meaning. We give attention to the things that we find meaningful. Attention being a rough proxy our brain provides for meaning. That means we spend ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eCqwDMQxdGYTrQAer/meaning-wars |
# In the presence of disinformation, collective epistemology requires local modeling
In [Inadequacy and Modesty](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/zsG9yKcriht2doRhM/inadequacy-and-modesty), Eliezer describes modest epistemology:
> How likely is it that an entire country—one of the world’s most advanced countries—woul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A5WMcmJoYQuHiT9sY/in-the-presence-of-disinformation-collective-epistemology |
# Youtube channel devoted to the art of rationality
For quite some time I've considered creating a Youtube channel devoted to rationality.
I live in Italy, and the political situation here bears some similarities with the US': we've seen the rise of populist figures accompanied by the debate around fake news and post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wBrFuL3y3kjARbnYN/youtube-channel-devoted-to-the-art-of-rationality |
# Book Review: The Complacent Class
Epistemic Status: My read. The mind of another is always tricky. At a minimum, Tyler would not agree with many of my framing and word choices.
The Book: [The Complacent Class](https://www.amazon.com/Complacent-Class-Self-Defeating-Quest-American-ebook/dp/B01JGMCCCQ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UT... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PuouDsn4sKRbgu8ha/book-review-the-complacent-class |
# Truth is Symmetric
The Taj Mahal is symmetric with respect to right-left reflection. That is to say, if you create a mirror image of it that flips right and left, you get the exact same thing. Therefore, if as we're standing outside looking at it my friend Jen tells me that she thinks the left side of the Taj Mahal ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HHjJb9TR93iTeWAc8/truth-is-symmetric |
# Improvement Without Superstition
When you make continuous, incremental improvements to something, one of two things can happen. You can improve it a lot, or you can fall into superstition. I'm not talking about black cats or broken mirrors, but rather humans becoming [addicted to whichever steps were last seen to wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M2g5zDEwwp2o8NriZ/improvement-without-superstition |
# Pascal’s Muggle Pays
Reply To (Eliezer Yudkowsky): [Pascal’s Muggle Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence](http://lesswrong.com/lw/h8k/pascals_muggle_infinitesimal_priors_and_strong/)
Inspired to Finally Write This By (Lesser Wrong): [Against the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Penalty](https://www.le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CaPgNwxEFHh3Ahvf7/pascal-s-muggle-pays |
# I Vouch For MIRI
Another take with more links: [AI: A Reason to Worry, A Reason to Donate](https://putanumonit.com/2017/12/10/worried-about-ai/)
I have made a $10,000 donation to the [Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI)](https://intelligence.org/2017/12/01/miris-2017-fundraiser/) as part of their winter ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rb7SjbTZjjiukqiHk/i-vouch-for-miri |
# Books I read 2017 - Part 1. Relationships, Learning
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/books-i-read-2017-part-1-relationships-learning/ warning LW seems to have made this post less readable by removing some formatting marks. Possibly better read on bearlamp.com.au
This year I read 79 or so books. Also there... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k6outE9pA6vxZSc8B/books-i-read-2017-part-1-relationships-learning |
# Bay Solstice 2017: Thoughts
To me, this year's Solstice was a flop. While it's still somewhat fresh in my mind, I would like to say why.
_(A few of these thoughts are ones I shared with others and found basic agreement. The rest were not discussed and may be entirely idiosyncratic.)_
At the design level, it wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RLE4kZiYw8LtwPXLy/bay-solstice-2017-thoughts |
# CFAR 2017 Retrospective
As we approach the end of the year, we’d like to offer everyone a summary of what CFAR has been up to in 2017.
Sprint & Instructor Training
============================
The first half of the year focused on improving and stress testing our main intro workshops. We ran a “sprint” of five wor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a6HeBf5QsSFrJP2QB/cfar-2017-retrospective |
# Mana
(This is a copy-pasted blog post from https://sinceriously.fyi/, I'm checking how much demand here there is for my writing.)
This is theorizing about how [mana](https://www.facebook.com/ialdabaoth/posts/10211861331027591) works and its implications. (Edit: usable link: https://sinceriously.fyi/wp-content/uploa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/39aKPedxHYEfusDWo/mana |
# The essay "Interstellar Communication Using Microbes: Implications for SETI" has implications for The Great Filter.
Apparently I can add body text to a link post, instead of having to give a TL;DR as a comment? Excellent. Here are some excerpts from [the essay](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=39000):
> Let us co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TEG5qsWZaiZmzcXQR/the-essay-interstellar-communication-using-microbes |
# I Am not a Tax Lawyer
I am really not a tax lawyer. This will become obvious soon enough, but it’s important for my readers to keep in mind from the very top. Still, [this spoke to my heart](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-08/bitcoin-swings-and-tax-glitches):
> I sometimes think I missed my call... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D6GaXeH7mJ8SBpSAf/i-am-not-a-tax-lawyer |
# 2017 AI Safety Literature Review and Charity Comparison
_Summary: I review a significant amount of 2017 research related to AI Safety and offer some comments about where I am going to donate this year. Cross-posted from here upon request._
Contents
--------
Contents
Introduction
The Machine Intelligence Researc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hYekqQ9hLmn3XTZrp/2017-ai-safety-literature-review-and-charity-comparison |
# The Story CFAR
In addition to to [my donation to MIRI](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/i-vouch-for-miri/), I am giving $4000 to [CFAR](http://www.rationality.org/), the Center for Applied Rationality, as part of [their annual fundraiser](http://www.rationality.org/fundraiser). I believe that CFAR does excell... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v6kDafWZfxCrYC6AE/the-story-cfar |
# Maps vs Buttons; Nerds vs Normies
It took me the longest time to see through the illusion that was "rational" discussion.
The setting: A friend and I exchange inquiries about each other's beliefs about X.
The result: the friend would give a number of answers that allowed me to piece together their view of X. An as... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KYXTBT3P2pvSxkwQe/maps-vs-buttons-nerds-vs-normies |
# Writing Down Conversations
_Epistemic Status: Didn't think through exactly how I worded things._
**tldr:** When you have insightful conversation, write it down and share it so people can build on it (instead of just sharing in person). Most of humanity's power comes from being able to build complex thoughts out of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BckFvfxXT323aheKW/writing-down-conversations |
# The expected value of the long-term future
I wrote an article describing a simple model of the long-term future. Here it is:
* in [PDF](https://thomas-sittler.github.io/ltf-paper/longtermfuture.pdf) format
* in [tex](https://thomas-sittler.github.io/ltf-paper/longtermfuture.tex) format
Summary:
> A number of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pASjaaHfk8dvtAng8/the-expected-value-of-the-long-term-future |
# Why did everything take so long?
One of the biggest intuitive mysteries to me is how humanity took so long to do anything.
Humans have been ‘behaviorally modern’ for about [50 thousand years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_human_evolution#Homo). And apparently didn’t invent, for instance:
* rope [unti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mFqG58s4NE3EE68Lq/why-did-everything-take-so-long |
# Comments on Power Law Distribution of Individual Impact
I had a discussion online yesterday, stemming from whether you should expect to be able to identify individuals who will most shape the long term future of humanity. It was on a discussion of whether CEA should have staff work on doing this full time, and I was... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xnbW5iXRRFawgpNee/comments-on-power-law-distribution-of-individual-impact |
# Epistemic Spot Check: Full Catastrophe Living (Jon Kabat-Zinn)
_[Full Catastrophe Living](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345536932/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=acesoundergla-20&camp=1789&creative=9325&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=0345536932&linkId=05e1ddb94688a33a489a816cde5aadf6)_ is a little weird, beca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Saww4uF7vrQmspSWP/epistemic-spot-check-full-catastrophe-living-jon-kabat-zinn |
# Against Love Languages
The other day, a friend on facebook shared a post on [love languages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Five_Love_Languages) and asked their friends what their's were. I said that this did not fit my ontology for affection in a deep romantic relationship, and when someone asked me what ontoloy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBJK4qLphomBfQuzs/against-love-languages |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.