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# Open Thread June 2018
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one (use search for Open Thread ).
2. Monthly open threads seem to get lost and maybe we should switch to fortnightly.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8QkANbCTDtx9munLd/open-thread-june-2018 |
# Into the Kiln: Insights from Tao's 'Analysis I'
_Note: real analysis is not on the [MIRI reading list](https://intelligence.org/research-guide/) (although I think it should be)._
Foreword
========
As a young boy, mathematics captivated me.
In elementary school, I'd happily while away entire weekends working throu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cuZxipMFup5uJdeAp/into-the-kiln-insights-from-tao-s-analysis-i |
# Amplification Discussion Notes
Paul Christiano, Wei Dai, Andreas Stuhlmüller and I had an online chat discussion recently, [the transcript of the discussion is available here](https://dynalist.io/d/YGwuNf1YmxOmMMMg4f8t98Sq). (Disclaimer that it’s a nonstandard format and we weren't optimizing for ease of understandi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LbJHizyfAsDYeETBq/amplification-discussion-notes |
# Strong Votes [Update: Deployed]
_Update: This has now been pushed to the live site. For now, on Desktop, strong upvotes require click-and-hold. Mobile users just tap multiple times. This is most likely a temporary solution as we get some feedback about how the respective modes work under realistic conditions._
Over... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Sx3CJXA7JHxY2yDG/strong-votes-update-deployed |
# Swimming Upstream: A Case Study in Instrumental Rationality
> One data point for careful planning, the unapologetic pursuit of fulfillment, and success. Of particular interest to up-and-coming AI safety researchers, this post chronicles how I made a change in my PhD program to work more directly on AI safety, overco... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eAsN5vNjvmxzACuuX/swimming-upstream-a-case-study-in-instrumental-rationality |
# Excessive EDA Effortposting
**Introduction and motivation**
Science! It’s important. It’s also difficult, largely because of how easily people fool themselves. I’ve seen plenty of people (my younger self included!) lose the plot as they attempt their first few investigations, letting subtle methodological probl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wqga4xNCgtLdMPq7o/excessive-eda-effortposting |
# Against accusing people of motte and bailey
Motte-and-bailey is a pretty famous term in rationalist circles. To quote [the canonical SSC post](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/03/all-in-all-another-brick-in-the-motte/) on the topic:
> So the motte-and-bailey doctrine is when you make a bold, controversial statemen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WjYzGWrpX3QZbWS3s/against-accusing-people-of-motte-and-bailey |
# The lesswrong slack - an introduction to our regulars
**About us**
============
The lesswrong slack has been active for 2-3 years now. It’s a garden in as much as I try to keep it peaceful.
A new member joined the slack recently. He asked: What are the moderation rules here?
I wrote the brief rules, but then I al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z8KfEjs8WSAjgJPtd/the-lesswrong-slack-an-introduction-to-our-regulars |
# Simplified Poker
This is intended as a three-part sequence. Part two will go over my strategy. Part three will reveal the results and discuss some implications.
In the same class in which we later played [The Darwin Game](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/11/15/the-darwin-game/), we played a less complex game calle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2M3vWPBqyefh3uow/simplified-poker |
# Prisoners' Dilemma with Costs to Modeling
We consider a modification to the open source prisoners' dilemma in which agents must pay some resources to model each other. We will use the modal combat framework, but where agents pay a cost proportional to the depth of boxes in their code. Even a small modeling penalty m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XjMkPyaPYTf7LrKiT/prisoners-dilemma-with-costs-to-modeling |
# Disambiguating "alignment" and related notions
EDIT: renamed CAIS --> TAIS to avoid acronym class with Drexler's [Comprehensive AI Services](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Reframing_Superintelligence_FHI-TR-2019-1.1-1.pdf).
I recently had an ongoing and undetected inferential gap with someone over our... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FTpPC4umEiREZMMRu/disambiguating-alignment-and-related-notions-1 |
# Resource-Limited Reflective Oracles
Reflective oracles accurately answer questions about what arbitrary halting probabilistic oracle machines output. It is possible to make a variant of a reflective oracle that accurately answers questions about what sufficiently short-running Turing machines with access to the same... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf067037555e/resource-limited-reflective-oracles |
# Simplified Poker Strategy
Previously in Sequence (Required): [Simplified Poker](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/06/04/simplified-poker/)
I spent a few hours figuring out my strategy. This is what I submitted.
If you start with a 2, you never want to bet, since your opponent will call with a 3 but fold with a 1. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7BtZsw3id7kWSgBDW/simplified-poker-strategy |
# Monty Hall in the Wild
[Cross-posted from Putanumonit.com](https://putanumonit.com/2018/06/03/monty-hall-in-the-wild/).
* * *
I visited a friend yesterday, and after we finished our first bottle of Merlot I brought up the Monty Hall problem, as one does. My friend confessed that she has never heard of the problem.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rRRCEoCXDSiv4dQvM/monty-hall-in-the-wild |
# Hufflepuff Leadership and Fighting Entropy
_(In which my mild annoyance at a particular garbage bin outputs an essay that I think is pretty generalizable and important, but maybe is just a rant. \*shrug\*)_
Previously:
* [Project Hufflepuff](https://www.lesswrong.com/sequences/oyZGWX9WkgWzEDt6M) _\[note: sort of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rhZQ7MQGuJM5osiDe/hufflepuff-leadership-and-fighting-entropy |
# A Rationalist Argument for Voting
The argument that voting is irrational is commonplace. From your point of view as a single voter, the chance that your one vote will sway the election are typically miniscule, and the direct effect of your vote is null if it doesn't sway the election. Thus, even if the expected valu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uG3ri4y3siWyC52bD/a-rationalist-argument-for-voting |
# The first AI Safety Camp & onwards
_Co-author:_ Linda Linsefors
**Summary**
-----------
Last month, 5 teams of up-and-coming researchers gathered to solve concrete problems in AI alignment at our 10-day AI safety research camp in Gran Canaria.
This post describes:
* the event format we came up with
* our exp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KerENNLyiqQ5ew7Kz/the-first-ai-safety-camp-and-onwards |
# Beyond Astronomical Waste
Faced with the astronomical amount of unclaimed and unused resources in our universe, one's first reaction is probably wonderment and anticipation, but a second reaction may be disappointment that our universe isn't even larger or contains even more resources (such as the ability to support... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qz6w4GYZpgeDp6ATB/beyond-astronomical-waste |
# Reflections on Berkeley REACH
This post covers my findings so far in the experiment of running the Berkeley Rationality and Effective Altruism Community Hub (REACH). Crossposted on [EA Forum](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1pp/reflections_on_berkeley_reach/) and LessWrong.
tl;dr
-----
* REACH has been running ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/55SHk8kh9dDvaDTCC/reflections-on-berkeley-reach |
# The Incoherence of Honesty
[Some rationalists](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/humility-argument-honesty/) have what to me feels like an [obsession with honesty](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xdwbX9pFEr7Pomaxv/meta-honesty-firming-up-honesty-around-its-edge-cases). That's fine: we can all be obsessed with our own c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zp6omCEmz7qkWhtEq/the-incoherence-of-honesty |
# Poker example: (not) deducing someone's preferences
I've shown that it is, theoretically, [impossible to deduce](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rtphbZbMHTLCepd6d/humans-can-be-assigned-any-values-whatsoever) the preferences and rationality of an agent by looking at their actions or policy.
That argument is valid, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b3TLbcwfJK5rmcwXc/poker-example-not-deducing-someone-s-preferences |
# RFC: Meta-ethical uncertainty in AGI alignment
_I'm working on writing a paper about [an idea I previously outlined for addressing false positives in AI alignment research](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3r44dhh3uK7s9Pveq/rfc-philosophical-conservatism-in-ai-alignment-research). This is the first completed draft of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uR3znuBnaevssYDZY/rfc-meta-ethical-uncertainty-in-agi-alignment |
# Could we send a message to the distant future?
Suppose that humanity wiped itself out but left behind complex multicellular life. I think there is a good chance that space-faring civilization would emerge again on Earth, and I've argued that it [might be worthwhile to try sending them a message](https://sideways-vie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CjgFnceZXLJEj9nvX/could-we-send-a-message-to-the-distant-future |
# Physics has laws, the Universe might not
_Inspired by http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2018/06/physicist-concludes-there-are-no-laws.html, which dissed this article: https://www.quantamagazine.org/there-are-no-laws-of-physics-theres-only-the-landscape-20180604._
_Epistemic status: very raw, likely discussed els... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aCuahwMSvbAsToK22/physics-has-laws-the-universe-might-not |
# Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 3: Set Theoretic Relations and Enumerability
Followup to [Fundamentals of Formalisation level 2: Basic Set Theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yzYSj7nzYq6pk5c6L/fundamentals-of-formalisation-level-2-basic-set-theory).
The big ideas:
* Ordered Pairs
* Relations
* Fu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z92cmpcDr5aDGg68c/fundamentals-of-formalisation-level-3-set-theoretic |
# Simplified Poker Conclusions
Previously: [Simplified Poker](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/06/04/simplified-poker/), [Simplified Poker Strategy](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/06/06/simplified-poker-strategy/)
Related (Eliezer Yudkowsky): [Meta Honesty: Firming Honesty Around Its Edge Cases](https://www.lessw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hhAMceezBc5mbY2gt/simplified-poker-conclusions |
# Resolving the Dr Evil Problem
Deep in [Dr Evil's](http://www.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/drevil/drevil.pdf) impregnable fortress (paraphrased):
> Dr Evil is just about to complete his evil plan of destroying the Earth, when he receives a message from the Philosophy Defence Force on Mars. They have created a clone i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mcrxRFMwaMnSKHCfo/resolving-the-dr-evil-problem |
# Oops on Commodity Prices
_Epistemic status: Casual_
__
Some [patient and thoughtful folks](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kLNfsQ7Dtg8hsMFrS/monopoly-a-manifesto-and-fact-post#2ST3EWwNjkwkZafvi) on LessWrong, and, apparently... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWZHBC2hLz97hkeSX/oops-on-commodity-prices |
# Front Row Center
Epistemic Status: Lightweight
Related: [Choices are Bad](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/07/22/choices-are-bad/), [Choices Are Really Bad](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/08/12/choices-are-really-bad/)
Yesterday, my wife and I went out to see Ocean’s Eight (official review: as advertised). The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jPqfApwSafNdJKff6/front-row-center |
# The Alignment Newsletter #10: 06/11/18
Now that we're at the tenth Alignment Newsletter, it seems like the right time for a [survey](https://mailchi.mp/d1a19c140226/alignment-newsletter-10)! It's really short and should only take 1-5 minutes (depending on how much feedback you give), so please do take it :)
**Highl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Foqiq3TGmfYmQwrnH/the-alignment-newsletter-10-06-11-18 |
# Announcing the second AI Safety Camp
What is the AI Safety Camp?
---------------------------
Would you like to work on AI safety or strategy research and are looking for a concrete way to get started? We are organizing this camp for aspiring AI safety and strategy researchers. At the camp, you:
* build connectio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WwsgJcey7nfXhZWfn/announcing-the-second-ai-safety-camp |
# Thoughts on the Inner Bruce
This is a response to an [article recommended to me](http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/misc/2005_Stuck_In_The_Middle_With_Bruce.html).
So Bruce, according to Rizzo, _needs_ to fail. He will influence decisions so that the outcome is failure. But Rizzo also points to how people point out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vPCue76HvL8BAP7rH/thoughts-on-the-inner-bruce |
# A general model of safety-oriented AI development
This may be trivial or obvious for a lot of people, but it doesn't seem like anyone has bothered to write it down (or I haven't looked hard enough). It started out as a generalization of Paul Christiano's [IDA](https://ai-alignment.com/iterated-distillation-and-ampli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/idb5Ppp9zghcichJ5/a-general-model-of-safety-oriented-ai-development |
# Admiring the Guts of Things.
Looking into the guts of things often reveals a very important perspective. Let me elaborate what I mean, via this anecdote:
Many machine learning practitioners will make a mistake of the following form:
> "I ran a K-means clustering algorithm on my data, for k = 2, and it didnt show m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LNowRoyAZxPPXDtbH/admiring-the-guts-of-things |
# LW Update 2018-06-11 – Vulcan Refactor, Karma Overhaul, Colored Links, Moderation Log
I had written about the new Strong Upvotes feature over [in this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Sx3CJXA7JHxY2yDG/strong-votes-update-deployed), but a) I wanted to include it in an official update post, b) we've made a numbe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oQMfKHps6xRH7fdnY/lw-update-2018-06-11-vulcan-refactor-karma-overhaul-colored |
# Today a Tragedy
Very early this morning, my friend died in a car wreck.
When my mother called to tell me, she told me an old friend had died, but then it took her 10 seconds to compose herself to tell me exactly _who._
Old friends have called and texted me throughout the day. Some seeking to console, and others t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ipasCjiey55DyFpwW/today-a-tragedy |
# [Math] Towards Proof Writing as a Skill In Itself
In the vein of [Nate](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ee8CZW7wzaNdCENYG/book-review-naive-set-theory-miri-course-list), [David](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FvA2qL6ChCbyi5Axk/book-review-naive-set-theory-miri-research-guide) and [TT](https://www.lesswrong.com/post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8vBSgToXryKGncMyk/math-towards-proof-writing-as-a-skill-in-itself |
# On the Chatham House Rule
I have gone to several events operating under the Chatham House Rule, and have overall found it more annoying than useful. In this post, I share why I dislike the rule, how I think it can be improved, and hopefully spark others to give ideas on how to improve it. In particular, I think the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWof2zGexwwJ8Q4ND/on-the-chatham-house-rule |
# Counterfactual Mugging Poker Game
Consider the following game:
Player A receives a card at random that is either High or Low. He may reveal his card if he wishes.
Player B then chooses a probability < refresh to render LaTeX > that Player A has a high card.
Player A always loses < refresh to render LaTeX > dollar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g3PwPgcdcWiP33pYn/counterfactual-mugging-poker-game |
# Anthropics made easy?
tl;dr: _many effective altruists and rationalists seem to have key misunderstandings of anthropic reasoning; but anthropic probability is actually easier than it seems._
True or false:
* The fact we survived the cold war is evidence that the cold war was less dangerous.
I'd recommend tryin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7etP7scvfHZMFWgBt/anthropics-made-easy |
# Notes on a recent wave of spam
I think it is likely already clear to the mods, but just to make it common knowledge: There's a spam attack currently active, which takes the form of messages that copy-paste the beginning of another upthread comment (I assume, to look like a valid comment to someone not following clos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/snm458hHCCvWupvei/notes-on-a-recent-wave-of-spam |
# Weak arguments against the universal prior being malign
Paul Christiano [makes the case](https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/what-does-the-universal-prior-actually-look-like/) that if we use the universal prior to make important predictions, then we will end up assigning a large amount of probability mass... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ecxevhvx85Y4eyFcu/weak-arguments-against-the-universal-prior-being-malign |
# We Agree: Speeches All Around!
In the Catalan autobiography of James I _Llibre dels Fets,_ King James often describes the advice given to him by different nobles and princes of the Church (read bishops). Oftentimes they disagree; sometimes he turns out right, and sometimes they turn out the wiser counsellors. Schol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LB2bY379dcyfAZYvy/we-agree-speeches-all-around |
# Worrying about the Vase: Whitelisting
> Suppose a designer wants an RL agent to achieve some goal, like moving a box from one side of a room to the other. Sometimes the most effective way to achieve the goal involves doing something unrelated and destructive to the rest of the environment, like knocking over a vase ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H7KB44oKoSjSCkpzL/worrying-about-the-vase-whitelisting |
# Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 4: Formal Semantics Basics
Followup to [Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 3: Set Theoretic Relations and Enumerability](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z92cmpcDr5aDGg68c/fundamentals-of-formalisation-level-3-set-theoretic). [First Post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kK67yXhmDY... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/noBWatgDQ7Q8eoxvf/fundamentals-of-formalisation-level-4-formal-semantics |
# Privacy: Defining Yourself
> A girl needs a room of her own.
— paraphrasing Virginia Woolf
It's important to control the amount of information people have about you, especially for creative tasks or in areas you expect you might want to change.
Defining yourself is risky, because then it becomes hard to c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9XhDFcN2zkeoxEKNy/privacy-defining-yourself |
# Why Destructive Value Capture?
Previously: [Front Row Center](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/06/11/front-row-center/)
I got a lot of push-back from suggesting that there was a way for theaters to improve their customer experience and value proposition at low cost (get rid of the seats that are so close to the sc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZtnYXwBKGTvE2Ro5o/why-destructive-value-capture |
# Investing and Personal Finance
A few years ago, Shay Weiss set a goal for himself to become financially independent and to position himself for an early retirement (FIRE).
A big part of that was learning and absorbing a lot of information:
* Reading a lot of books about finances/investing (A Random Walk Down... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/aCFFNbQ3ucwjMccgm/investing-and-personal-finance |
# LessWrong is hiring
LessWrong is looking to hire an additional programmer. Ideally, someone with 5+ years experience who is up for a CTO role, or seems like a strong candidate to grow into such a role.
We're looking for someone excited about our longterm vision. Over the next several years, we want to build a platf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W8fkT278Fuaih86uy/lesswrong-is-hiring |
# Sleeping Beauty Not Resolved
[Ksvanhorn](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u7kSTyiWFHxDXrmQT/sleeping-beauty-resolved) recently suggested that Radford Neal provides the solution to the [Sleeping Beauty](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem) problem and that the current solutions are wrong. The conse... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8MZPQJhMzyoJMYfz5/sleeping-beauty-not-resolved |
# Order from Randomness: Ordering the Universe of Random Numbers
_Epistemic status: not sure what to make of it._
[Previously](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aCuahwMSvbAsToK22/physics-has-laws-the-universe-might-not) I had suggested that the laws of physics were the observers' attempts to make sense of the universe ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2FZxTKTAtDs2bnfCh/order-from-randomness-ordering-the-universe-of-random |
# Problem Solving with Mazes and Crayon
I want to talk about a few different approaches to general problem solving (for humans). It turns out that they can all be applied to mazes, so I’ll use some disney-themed mazes to illustrate each approach.
We’ll start off with some traditional path-search algorithms (DFS, BFS,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPBmbgYZpsGqkiz2R/problem-solving-with-mazes-and-crayon |
# Paradoxes in all anthropic probabilities
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7etP7scvfHZMFWgBt/anthropics-made-easy), I re-discovered [full non-indexical updating](https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0608592) (FNC), an anthropic theory I'm ashamed to say I had once known and then forgot. Thanks to Wei Dai fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNi8bSYexYGn9kiRh/paradoxes-in-all-anthropic-probabilities |
# Wirehead your Chickens
TL;DR: **If you care about farm animal welfare, work on minimizing actual animal suffering, not a human proxy for animal suffering.**
_Epistemic status: had a chat about this with a couple of local EA enthusiasts who attended the [EA Global 2018](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-2018... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a4HzwhvoH7zZEw4vZ/wirehead-your-chickens |
# Duplication versus probability
Suppose you're rushing an urgent message back to the general of your army, and you fall into a deep hole. Down here, conveniently, there's a lever that can create a duplicate of you outside the hole. You can also break open the lever and use the wiring as ropes to climb to the top. You... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NiA59mFjFGx9h5eB6/duplication-versus-probability |
# Anthropics and Fermi
tl;dr _There is no well-defined "probability" of intelligent life in the universe. Instead, we can use proper scoring functions to penalise bad probability estimates. If we average scores across all existent observers, we get [SSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sampling_assumption)-style pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9sb3dJNXCngixWvy/anthropics-and-fermi |
# Does anyone use advanced media projects?
Epistemic status: exploratory.
I am using "advanced media projects" as sort of a catch-all umbrella for people working on better ways to present and explore information. I suppose the obvious hub for this kind of thing is places like the [MIT Media Lab](https://www.media.mit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cymS5ah5YzEF8uBCx/does-anyone-use-advanced-media-projects |
# Ben Hoffman's donor recommendations
A conversation I had on Facebook last month, saved here so I can link back to it:
* * *
**Anonymous**: I want to give away some money. Who should I give it to? \[...\]
Note that I am familiar with the effective altruism movement and with [givewell.org](https://www.givewell.org)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k5q6q9oBhj2DYhNZn/ben-hoffman-s-donor-recommendations |
# CFAR Reunion
We're am proud to announce [CFAR's 5th annual Alumni](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2018-cfar-alumni-reunion-tickets-44351640952) [](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/cfar-alumni-reunion-2017-tickets-33555831395) [Reunion](https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2018-cfar-alumni-reunion-tickets-44351640952)!
The reunio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/SNs7Y2GxNEqMk9huZ/cfar-reunion |
# Anthropics: Where does Less Wrong lie?
I'm currently reading some papers various problems related to the anthropic problem and I'm planning to write up a post when I'm finished. To this end, it would be useful to know what position people hold so that I know what arguments I need to address. So what is your position... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4B6GycfxopMarar8G/anthropics-where-does-less-wrong-lie |
# Two prescriptions for fixing a procedural/declarative knowledge mismatch.
Prescriptions
=============
* If you think you have **more procedural knowledge** than declarative:
* use the [Feynman technique](https://strategyumwelt.com/frameworks/feynman-technique) (ideally once per day for a few days) and
* rea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8g56F9rih6sHawqbi/two-prescriptions-for-fixing-a-procedural-declarative |
# UDT can learn anthropic probabilities
Today I realized that UDT doesn't have to clash with "objective" views of anthropic probability, like SSA or SIA: instead it can, in some sense, learn which of these views is true!
The argument goes like this. First I'll describe a game where SSA and SIA lead to different decis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ma5Jc4wPT36j3X84P/udt-can-learn-anthropic-probabilities |
# The Alignment Newsletter #12: 06/25/18
**Highlights**
--------------
**[Factored Cognition](https://ought.org/presentations/factored-cognition-2018-05)** _(Andreas Stuhlmuller)_: This is a presentation that Andreas has given a few times on Factored Cognition, a project by [Ought](https://ought.org/) that is empiric... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDSQEZeyakzAEKyGk/the-alignment-newsletter-12-06-25-18 |
# Book Review: Why Honor Matters
People who live in honor cultures have a sense of purpose and meaning. They dwell in solidarity with their fellows, are courageous in the face of danger, set great store in hospitality, and put the welfare of the group above their own.
Mostly.
I expect when readers from this site thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LgbuyRpXxbMhiCDq9/book-review-why-honor-matters |
# Logical uncertainty and Mathematical uncertainty
There is a significant difference between uncertainty about mathematical truths in cases where there isn't a known procedure for checking whether a mathematical claim is true or false, versus when there is but you do not have the computational resources to carry it ou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q9xHFf8duqbc45YvT/logical-uncertainty-and-mathematical-uncertainty |
# What could be done with RNA and DNA sequencing that's 1000x cheaper than it's now?
In [How to Invent the Future](https://www.startupschool.org/videos/11) Alan Kay proposes that a good way of inventing the feature is to take an exponential and project it into the feature. Afterwards it's useful to ask what can be don... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RBjLCdKZj9LhP6Rir/what-could-be-done-with-rna-and-dna-sequencing-that-s-1000x |
# OpenAI releases functional Dota 5v5 bot, aims to beat world champions by August
> Our team of five neural networks, OpenAI Five, has started to [defeat](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five/#thegames) amateur human teams at [Dota 2](http://www.dota2.com/play/). While today we play with [restrictions](https://blog.ope... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ejxi9W9nRqGY7BzYY/openai-releases-functional-dota-5v5-bot-aims-to-beat-world |
# Optimization Amplifies
I talk here about how a mathematician mindset can be useful for AI alignment. But first, a puzzle:
Given < refresh to render LaTeX > , what is the least number < refresh to render LaTeX > such that for < refresh to render LaTeX > , the base < refresh to render LaTeX > representation of < refr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zEvqFtT4AtTztfYC4/optimization-amplifies |
# Last Chance to Fund the Berkeley REACH
_(This post was co-authored by me (Cody Wild), Tessa Alexanian and Ray Arnold)_
**TL;DR We have 2 days - until July 1 - to [increase monthly donations](http://www.patreon.com/berkeleyreach/) by $2260 or raise $27,000 in [lump sum](https://www.paypal.com/pools/c/82D4R5tnuG) , o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D3zK3anJcdW9RuZr8/last-chance-to-fund-the-berkeley-reach |
# Right Hand, Left Hand - Los Angeles LW/SSC Meetup #65 (Wednesday, June 27th)
Location: Wine Bar next to the Landmark Theater in the Westside Pavilion (10850 W Pico Blvd #312, Los Angeles, CA 90064). We will move **upstairs (to the 3rd floor hallway) as soon as we reach capacity**.
Time: 7 pm (June 27th)
Parking: ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/6WSX44TKTzdm6rLLp/right-hand-left-hand-los-angeles-lw-ssc-meetup-65-wednesday |
# How to formalize predictors
In Newcomb's Problem, what information does the predictor get if you flip a coin? Here's some options:
1) "Bob has 50:50 odds of one-boxing or two-boxing"
2) "Bob will one-box" (chosen randomly with the same odds as your decision)
3) "Bob will one-box" (guaranteed to be the same as you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YZTtYmNX86EKWdApq/how-to-formalize-predictors |
# Machine Learning Analogy for Meditation (illustrated)
Here's an illustrated rendition of a semiformal explanation of certain effects of meditation. It was inspired by, but differs significantly from, [Kaj's post on meditation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mELQFMi9egPn5EAjK/my-attempt-to-explain-looking-insight-me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/chHhuCvmZqYLM32gz/machine-learning-analogy-for-meditation-illustrated |
# The Power of Letting Go Part I: Examples
There’s an approach/aesthetic of design/engineering/problem-solving which I want to talk about. I’m calling it “[just let go](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjwLienADFQ)” design; the general theme is that the designer/engineer/problem-solver gives up control over the details... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NvKhcQdHdNKCpJKBA/the-power-of-letting-go-part-i-examples |
# FHI Research Scholars Programme
FHI is starting a new two-year research scholars program, that I think could be quite exciting to a bunch of people on LW. The deadline to apply is in about two weeks (11th of July), and they're still actively looking for applicants.
FHI has a long history of doing interesting resear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nLMX7zWGoNdnm9yHP/fhi-research-scholars-programme |
# Shaping economic incentives for collaborative AGI
In "[An AI Race for Strategic Advantage: Rhetoric and Risks](http://www.aies-conference.com/wp-content/papers/main/AIES_2018_paper_163.pdf)" (2018), Stephen Cave and Seán S ÓhÉigeartaigh argue that we should try to promote a cooperative AI narrative over a competitiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FkZCM4DMprtEp568s/shaping-economic-incentives-for-collaborative-agi |
# Policy Alignment
_(ETA: The name "policy approval" wasn't great. I think I will use the term "policy alignment" to contrast with "value alignment" going forward, at the suggestion of Wei Dai in the comments.)_
I recently had a conversation with Stuart Armstrong in which I claimed that an agent which learns your uti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TeYro2ntqHNyQFx8r/policy-alignment |
# Applied Rationality MUD
Hey, do you want to help me build a MUD dedicated to learning and applying the principles of rationality?
**What's a MUD?**
A [Multi User Dungeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MUD). A virtual online world with a text interface. You have one or more characters who move through locations in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xvw938wQ4zWoPbi2D/applied-rationality-mud |
# “Cheating Death in Damascus” Solution to the Fermi Paradox
TL;DR: The Great Filter from the Fermi paradox could be escaped by choosing a random strategy. However, if all civilizations acted randomly, this could be the actual cause of the Fermi paradox. Using a meta-random strategy solves this.
\-\-\-\-
"Death in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R9javXN9BN5nXWHZx/cheating-death-in-damascus-solution-to-the-fermi-paradox |
# Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, and what reflection it provides
While the argument [was posted on LessWrong previously](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HEHuXNmwpcj8FRcoL/dissolving-the-fermi-paradox-applied-bayesianism), now it has the neat form of [a paper on arXive](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) by Anders Sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DHtjbcwcQv9qpHtJf/dissolving-the-fermi-paradox-and-what-reflection-it-provides |
# The Values-to-Actions Decision Chain
_Update 2022: Looking back on younger Remmelt's writing on decision-making, it is useful but cocky. It explained what I now call 'monitoring values' for carving out states of the world to decide between, but not how choice arises from 'deep embedded values'._
* * *
_This post c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gdQnhjstyFpPtRFnr/the-values-to-actions-decision-chain |
# Overcoming Clinginess in Impact Measures
> It may be possible to use the concept of a causal counterfactual ([as formalized by Pearl](https://www.amazon.com/Causality-Reasoning-Inference-Judea-Pearl/dp/052189560X)) to separate some intended effects from some unintended ones. Roughly, "follow-on effects" could be de ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DvmhXysefEyEvXuXS/overcoming-clinginess-in-impact-measures |
# Goodhart Taxonomy: Agreement
> "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
> -Goodhart’s Law
If you spend a while talking with someone you disagree with and end up agreeing, this is a sign you are both reasoning and communicating well - one of the primary uses of good reasoning is resolving ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZSkForf7e5nEKGDdb/goodhart-taxonomy-agreement-1 |
# Another take on agent foundations: formalizing zero-shot reasoning
After spending [more time thinking](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xCpuSfT5Lt6kkR3po/my-take-on-agent-foundations-formalizing-metaphilosophical) about MIRI’s agenda, I’ve come upon another framing of it, which I’m coining _zero-shot reasoning_. \[1\... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pu3ddLSZjjmiiqQfh/another-take-on-agent-foundations-formalizing-zero-shot |
# Paul's research agenda FAQ
I think Paul Christiano’s research agenda for the alignment of superintelligent AGIs presents one of the most exciting and promising approaches to AI safety. After being very confused about Paul’s agenda, chatting with others about similar confusions, and clarifying with Paul many times ov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Djs38EWYZG8o7JMWY/paul-s-research-agenda-faq |
# LW Update 2018-07-01 – Default Weak Upvotes
Git Commit: 6a0c7bf54a29f2909ab50fc76da3b43854d0e112
We deployed recently, mostly with under-the-hood bugfixes and refactors that are aimed at making it easier to fork the LW codebase and restyle it.
Two concrete user-facing changes are:
* Comments are now small-upvot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zKjyucddP2oE8y8HH/lw-update-2018-07-01-default-weak-upvotes |
# San Francisco Meetup: Board Games and Singing
Some people don’t like board games, and based on our straw poll at the recent meta meetup, most of those people seem to like group singing. So this meetup has both!
We have a variety of games, but feel free to bring your own.
We’ll also bring lyrics for some songs to s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/au2snh4MpoHB3C8dE/san-francisco-meetup-board-games-and-singing |
# Are ethical asymmetries from property rights?
These are some intuitions people often have:
* You are not required to save a random person, but you are definitely not allowed to kill one
* You are not required to create a person, but you are definitely not allowed to kill one
* You are not required to create a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zf4gvjTkbcJ5MGsJk/are-ethical-asymmetries-from-property-rights |
# Alignment Newsletter #13: 07/02/18
**Highlights**
--------------
**[OpenAI Five](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five/)** _(Many people at OpenAI)_: OpenAI has trained a team of five neural networks to play a particular set of Dota heroes in a mirror match (playing against the same set of heroes) with a few restrict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rhdzxSfLXpxZRsHg6/alignment-newsletter-13-07-02-18 |
# Why it took so long to do the Fermi calculation right?
This is a meta-level followup to an object level post about [Dissolving the Fermi Paradox.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DHtjbcwcQv9qpHtJf/dissolving-the-fermi-paradox-and-what-reflection-it-provides)
The basic observation of the paper is that when the stati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhNrdwidSBEkrPwEo/why-it-took-so-long-to-do-the-fermi-calculation-right |
# Letting Go II: Understanding is Key
_Context: The [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NvKhcQdHdNKCpJKBA/the-power-of-letting-go-part-i-examples) gave a long list of examples of just-let-go design: a problem-solving approach/aesthetic based on giving up direct control over the system. In this post, we’ll ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ehAckYhQX3XMeewjq/letting-go-ii-understanding-is-key |
# What will we do with the free energy?
_Epistemological status: Superficial personal speculation ._
This posts follows [What could be done with RNA and DNA sequencing that's 1000x cheaper than it's now?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RBjLCdKZj9LhP6Rir/what-could-be-done-with-rna-and-dna-sequencing-that-s-1000x) in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QetNqj7Dnrt5dcaGN/what-will-we-do-with-the-free-energy |
# Intertheoretic utility comparison
This is presenting some old work on combining different possible utility functions, that is worth revealing to the world.
I've written before about the problem of reaching an [agreement](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hCwFxBai3oNnxrM9v/let-s-split-the-cake-lengthwise-upwise-and-sl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBJCMWELaW6MxinYW/intertheoretic-utility-comparison |
# The Prediction Problem: A Variant on Newcomb's
**Update**: If you are interested in understanding my thoughts on Newcomb's problem, I would recommend starting with [Why 1-boxing doesn't imply backwards causation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gAAFzqJkfeSHvcwTw/why-1-boxing-doesn-t-imply-backwards-causation) and th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YpdTSt4kRnuSkn63c/the-prediction-problem-a-variant-on-newcomb-s |
# The Learning-Theoretic AI Alignment Research Agenda
$$\newcommand{\Comment}[1]{}$$
$$\DeclareMathOperator{\Sgn}{sgn}$$
$$\DeclareMathOperator{\Supp}{supp}$$
$$\DeclareMathOperator{\Dom}{dom}$$
$$\newcommand{\AP}[1]{\left(#1\right)}$$
$$\newcommand{\AB}[1]{\left[#1\right]}$$
$$\newcommand{\AC}[1]{\left\{#1\right\}}... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf0670375575/the-learning-theoretic-ai-alignment-research-agenda |
# Some Remarks on the Nature of Political Conflict
\[Part of the debate around: [Conflict Vs. Mistake](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/24/conflict-vs-mistake/)\]
\[Criticizing articles like: [In defence of conflict theory](https://thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com/2018/02/in-defence-of-conflict-theory.html), [Conserva... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rCXK5XnLhGDe4YLk2/some-remarks-on-the-nature-of-political-conflict |
# Making a Difference Tempore: Insights from 'Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction'
> The safety of artifi cial intelligence applications involving reinforcement learning is a topic that deserves careful attention.
Foreword
========
Let's get down to business.
Reinforcement Learning
======================
1: In... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BGv98aKicyT8eH4AY/making-a-difference-tempore-insights-from-reinforcement |
# On Authority
Stephen Randy Waldman (Interfluidity) writes about the process by which _authority_ is created. His definition of authority applies to information in a social context. Namely, information that is _authoritative_ is information which we take to be true by our actions, regardless of whether that informati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DrhLtwxmSf4HKKTqM/on-authority |
# Debt is an Anti-investment
[Cross-posted from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2018/07/03/debt-anti-investment/).
* * *
Since I wrote _[Get Rich Slowly](https://putanumonit.com/2017/02/10/get-rich-slowly/)_ I’ve received a steady stream of questions regarding personal finance. The most common of those is: **sh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDpA8EFkyZBzpZye4/debt-is-an-anti-investment |
# RFC: Mental phenomena in AGI alignment
_I'm working on writing a paper about_ _[an idea I previously outlined for addressing false positives in AI alignment research](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3r44dhh3uK7s9Pveq/rfc-philosophical-conservatism-in-ai-alignment-research). This is the second completed draft of one ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NtofeMwzDgi8xYqK2/rfc-mental-phenomena-in-agi-alignment |
# Polyamory Panel
This meetup is your chance to hear the answer to every question you ever wanted to ask, and a bunch that you haven't, about polyamory and open relationship. Answering will be our resident panel of open lovers: Sam, Eloise, Brian, Terese, and myself. I'll start with some general question for the entir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/2Ttb8dKqdFvk9NMhN/polyamory-panel |
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