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# Towards dissolving the mystery of consciousness
1
Let us consider a world where it is well known that light is a wave, characterized by wavelength. The white color is known to be a mix of many different waves as shown by a prism separating sunlight into a rainbow. Physicists measure and catalog the wavelengths of d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fe6F3ePHy8jdziB2Q/towards-dissolving-the-mystery-of-consciousness |
# obvious epiphanies
In her post [Closer to Fine](https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2017/03/25/closer-to-fine/), Sarah Constantin points at a something I’m calling an obvious epiphany.
> You can be intellectually aware that a thing is true, and still have strong negative feelings that contradict it … There’s a big ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c5LLfN5hpsmWsESRs/obvious-epiphanies |
# Book review: Pearl's Book of Why
Book review: The Book of Why, by Judea Pearl and Dana MacKenzie.
This book aims to turn the ideas from Pearl's seminal [Causality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causality_(book)) into something that's readable by a fairly wide audience.
It is somewhat successful. Most of the book i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H3bxN53hb4Kpj4ssT/book-review-pearl-s-book-of-why |
# Stories of Summer Solstice
_\[Epistemic Status: talking in the language of metaphorical soul and mysticism.\]_
Previously:
* [Visions of Summer Solstice](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnpxChD9fnT9785FR/visions-of-summer-solstice)
* Obligatory link to [The Value and Danger of Ritual](https://www.lesswrong.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e9Fgj2mHS8BqGbiZf/stories-of-summer-solstice |
# Automatic for the people
_Summary:_ Things we could do about technological unemployment, if there was technological unemployment. (Novel bit is a top-down macroeconomic calculation.)
_Confidence_: 90% that the solutions I call 'vicious' would be. 60% that the ones I call 'nonvicious' would be. Worth emphasising up ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HK4rjtfKetGF9rHQM/automatic-for-the-people |
# Putting Logarithmic-Quality Scales On Time
_From my journal. [Originally posted on my personal blog.](http://sebastianmarshall.com/putting-logarithmic-quality-scales-on-time) Status: quite speculative, but there's_ _something_ _here._
\*\*\*
Hmm.
We could probably put a -5 to +5 scale of behavior together that wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2YXJc6iF8j5c3hvWM/putting-logarithmic-quality-scales-on-time |
# Estimating the consequences of device detection tech
Today I have been asked to join a European project in collaboration with the police, developing two sorts of tech:
1. **Device identification**; that is, inferring from the filters applied to an image or video, pixel defects and other information hidden in raw p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cn4BvjyPv9mtETEGw/estimating-the-consequences-of-device-detection-tech |
# The Fermi Paradox: What did Sandberg, Drexler and Ord Really Dissolve?
([Cross-posted](https://donerkebabphilosophy.wordpress.com/2018/07/08/the-fermi-paradox-what-did-sandberg-drexler-and-ord-really-dissolve/) from my blog)
So [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404) by the trio from the FHI, Anders Sand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MdGp3vs2butANB7zX/the-fermi-paradox-what-did-sandberg-drexler-and-ord-really |
# Math: Textbooks and the DTP pipeline
_**Epistemic status:** Half-certain, half-skeptical. This mental model feels a bit_ too _compressed to me to be maximally useful._
I've spent a surprising (=non-zero) number of hours studying mathematics during my summer break, and noticed an interesting pattern in undergraduate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/THaaRzKLFS8YZmbHR/math-textbooks-and-the-dtp-pipeline |
# Alignment Newsletter #14
I've created a [public database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of almost all of the papers I've summarized in the Alignment Newsletter! Most of the entries will have all of the data I put in the emails.
**Highlights**
-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yamyc3oXEpFb8kty6/alignment-newsletter-14 |
# RAISE is looking for full-time content developers
(crossposted from Facebook. Related to [the reverse job](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pKLhDsfj2vKYBazfc/the-reverse-job))
(Tldr: RAISE is setting up a high-effort content development team in Blackpool, with free accommodation and fully covered living expenses. If... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T3yyHu4HvsQqXeqmW/raise-is-looking-for-full-time-content-developers |
# Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 5: Formal Proof
Followup to [Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 4: Formal Semantics Basics](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/noBWatgDQ7Q8eoxvf/fundamentals-of-formalisation-level-4-formal-semantics). [First post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kK67yXhmDYwXLqXoQ/fundamentals-of-fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HNq8mzT2nnvfAaYfj/fundamentals-of-formalisation-level-5-formal-proof |
# Letting Go III: Unilateral or GTFO
_Context: The_ _[first post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NvKhcQdHdNKCpJKBA/the-power-of-letting-go-part-i-examples)_ _gave a long list of examples of just-let-go design: a problem-solving approach/aesthetic based on giving up direct control over the system. The [second post](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jm68RqeEqGNidCCAb/letting-go-iii-unilateral-or-gtfo |
# The Dilemma of Worse Than Death Scenarios
In this post I will write about what worse than death scenarios are, and how and why we should prevent them. I would recommend reading with caution if you are prone to worrying about this topic as this post contains ideas which may be very distressing.
A worse than deat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N4AvpwNs7mZdQESzG/the-dilemma-of-worse-than-death-scenarios |
# Three anchorings: number, attitude, and taste
I've shown that one cannot simultaneously deduce the preferences and rationality of an irrational agent - neither in [theory](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812), nor in [practice](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b3TLbcwfJK5rmcwXc/poker-example-not-deducing-someone-s-prefe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dYsc2EGdvsCjjM4Wt/three-anchorings-number-attitude-and-taste |
# Open Thread July 2018
For those low-effort ideas that are worth a little attention but perhaps not a lot (yet).
(shouldn't a bot be posting these?)
Prompts for things to say:
* What accomplishments are you celebrating from the last month?
* What are you reading?
* What subject has taken up most of your thou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dPGTt8pTMA2oyKjE9/open-thread-july-2018 |
#
How to parent more predictably
_(As with anything else I write about parenting, this is mostly just my observations with my own two kids and may not generalize as well as I think it does.)_
A few weeks ago I wrote about why I think it's [valuable for parents to be predictable](https://www.jefftk.com/p/predictable-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5mZxYEe4DpE2b43Nx/how-to-parent-more-predictably |
# Study on what makes people approve or condemn mind upload technology; references LW
> In four studies (including pilot) with a total of 952 participants, it was shown that biological and cultural cognitive factors help to determine how strongly people condemn mind upload. \[...\] The results showed that people who v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EhErNrNJDKTozaKuy/study-on-what-makes-people-approve-or-condemn-mind-upload |
# Choosing to Choose?
This is related to wireheading, utility functions, taste, and rationality. It is a series of puzzles meant to draw attention to certain tensions in notions of rationality and utility functions for embedded agents. I often skip the particulars of embedded situations. I often show multiple sides of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6SstsM3cdKTaicbj/choosing-to-choose |
# Announcing AlignmentForum.org Beta
We've just launched the beta for [AlignmentForum.org](https://www.alignmentforum.org/).
Much of the value of LessWrong has come from the development of technical research on AI Alignment. In particular, having those discussions be in an accessible place has allowed newcomers to ge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JiMAMNAb55Qq24nES/announcing-alignmentforum-org-beta |
# The Intentional Agency Experiment
We would like to discern the intentions of a hyperintelligent, possibly malicious agent which has every incentive to conceal its evil intentions from us. But what even is intention? What does it mean for an agent to work towards a goal?
Consider the lowly ant and the immobile rock.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBeEt7YmaHd8dmif7/the-intentional-agency-experiment |
# Two agents can have the same source code and optimise different utility functions
I believe that it is possible for two agents to have the exact same source code while (in some sense) optimising two different utility functions.
I take a utility function to be a function from possible world states to real numbers. W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zMHK9gFY6t48Exqup/two-agents-can-have-the-same-source-code-and-optimise |
# Conditioning, Counterfactuals, Exploration, and Gears
The view of counterfactuals as just conditioning on low-probability events has a lot going for it. To begin with, in a bayesian setting, updates are done by conditioning. A probability distribution, conditioned on some event < refresh to render LaTeX > (an imagin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uQHAJ7TdBbweRR5iS/conditioning-counterfactuals-exploration-and-gears |
# Probability is fake, frequency is real
Consider the [Sleeping Beauty problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem). What do we mean by fair coin? It is meant that the coin will have 50-50 probability of heads or tails. But that is fake. It will ether come up heads or tail, because the real world is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vmfW2qTac4vF3YS3J/probability-is-fake-frequency-is-real |
# Repeated (and improved) Sleeping Beauty problem
**Follow up to:** [Probability is fake, frequency is real](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vmfW2qTac4vF3YS3J/probability-is-fake-frequency-is-real)
There is something wrong with the normal formulation of the [Sleeping Beauty problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KZh9eKCkBRbevkGnP/repeated-and-improved-sleeping-beauty-problem |
# Logical Uncertainty and Functional Decision Theory
(I used [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.05060) as a reference for functional decision theory (FDT), which is essentially an improved version of timeless decision theory and updateless decision theory)
This post is a reflection on decision processes that ref... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jyeYdBXAwsc4LPs7m/logical-uncertainty-and-functional-decision-theory |
# A framework for thinking about wireheading
\[Epistemic status: Writing down in words something that isn't very complicated, but is still good to have written down.\]
A great deal of ink has been spilled over the possibility of a sufficiently intelligent AI noticing that whatever it has been positively reinforced fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MbWDqFgojfnwhxRxr/a-framework-for-thinking-about-wireheading |
# Non-resolve as Resolve
\[I wrote this post after AISFP 2017, and for some reason forgot to post it then\]
Resolve = a mental technique for keep going in the face of difficulty. This is a concept that I picked up at a CFAR class a few days ago. As part of the class, we were supposed to think of our own technique. He... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pkngasFsCfFTidkxy/non-resolve-as-resolve |
# Bayesian Probability is for things that are Space-like Separated from You
First, I should explain what I mean by space-like separated from you. Imagine a world that looks like a [Bayesian network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network), and imagine that you are a node in that Bayesian network. If there is a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FvcyMMaJKhYibtFDD/bayesian-probability-is-for-things-that-are-space-like |
# A universal score for optimizers
\[Epistemic status: the idea is simple and intuitive, so I wouldn't be surprised if it has appeared before. If so, I would appreciate pointers.\]
Eliezer [defines optimization power](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf) as the ability to produce solutions higher on the preference... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vWfFDahpnY3tnCLrp/a-universal-score-for-optimizers |
# An environment for studying counterfactuals
_Summary: I introduce a decision theory framework where successful agents are those with good counterfactuals._
Motivation
==========
The problem of logical counterfactuals is how to define probabilities < refresh to render LaTeX > when < refresh to render LaTeX > is kno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hhNH3knNHgdkonAKB/an-environment-for-studying-counterfactuals |
# Mechanistic Transparency for Machine Learning
Cross-posted on [my blog](http://danielfilan.com/2018/07/10/mechanistic_transparency.html).
\[EDIT (added Jan 2023): it's come to my attention that this post was likely influenced by conversations I had with [Chris Olah](https://colah.github.io/about.html) related to th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3kwR2dufdJyJamHQq/mechanistic-transparency-for-machine-learning |
# Bounding Goodhart's Law
[Goodhart's law](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Goodhart's_law) seems to suggest that errors in utility or reward function specification are necessarily bad in sense that an optimal policy for the incorrect reward function would result in low return according to the true reward. But how stro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nu2KcjGf2EYyY2oRJ/bounding-goodhart-s-law |
# A comment on the IDA-AlphaGoZero metaphor; capabilities versus alignment
Iterated Distillation and Amplification has often been compared to AlphaGo Zero. But in the case of a Go-playing AI, people often don't see a distinction between alignment and capability, instead measuring success on a single axis: ability to w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yXFKh2jGysQNfX2NM/a-comment-on-the-ida-alphagozero-metaphor-capabilities |
# Dependent Type Theory and Zero-Shot Reasoning
I.
When I sit down to write code, I can safely throw everything I can think of at the problem and just keep trying to run the code until it works—and when it works, I can actually see it working. If my code runs, it means I actually had to understand enough of the m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xfw2d5horPunP2MSK/dependent-type-theory-and-zero-shot-reasoning |
# Conceptual problems with utility functions
_\[Epistemic status: strong intuitions that I have had for a long time, but not yet compared with other people's intuitions, and I am not sure how well I can convey my intuitions.\]_
So, a lot of agent foundations research seems to be built on the premise that agenthood is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nx4DsTpMaoTiTp4RQ/conceptual-problems-with-utility-functions |
# Conditions under which misaligned subagents can (not) arise in classifiers
**Core claim**: _Misaligned subagents are very unlikely to arise in a classification algorithm unless that algorithm is directly or indirectly (e.g. in a subtask) modeling interactions through time at a significant level of complexity._
**De... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xmzNAoWcYQfMv3j6J/conditions-under-which-misaligned-subagents-can-not-arise-in |
# Complete Class: Consequentialist Foundations
The fundamentals of Bayesian thinking have been justified in many ways over the years. Most people here have heard of the VNM axioms and Dutch Book arguments. Far fewer, I think, have heard of the Complete Class Theorems (CCT).
Here, I explain why I think of CCT as a mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sZuw6SGfmZHvcAAEP/complete-class-consequentialist-foundations |
# Clarifying Consequentialists in the Solomonoff Prior
I have spent a long time being confused about [Paul’s post](https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/what-does-the-universal-prior-actually-look-like/) on consequentialists in the Solomonoff prior. I now think I understand the problem clearly enough to engag... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jP3vRbtvDtBtgvkeb/clarifying-consequentialists-in-the-solomonoff-prior |
# On the Role of Counterfactuals in Learning
The following is a hypothesis regarding the purpose of counterfactual reasoning (particularly in humans). It builds on Judea Pearl's three-rung Ladder of Causation (see below).
One important takeaway from this hypothesis is that counterfactuals really only make sense in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MeYeLEr4RNGreJZcB/on-the-role-of-counterfactuals-in-learning |
# Agents That Learn From Human Behavior Can't Learn Human Values That Humans Haven't Learned Yet
_\[Epistemic status: ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ \]_
[Armstrong and Mindermann](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) write about a no free lunch theorem for inverse reinforcement learning (IRL): the same action can reflect many different... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfewqowdzDdCD7S9y/agents-that-learn-from-human-behavior-can-t-learn-human |
# Decision-theoretic problems and Theories; An (Incomplete) comparative list
So, this is a work-in-progress, but the idea is to a) get an eventually exhaustive list of decision-theoretic problems, and b) detail the '''answers''' given by each major decision theory.
(Stretch goals would including listing other kinds o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cWEhuXQBxRwxmhER5/decision-theoretic-problems-and-theories-an-incomplete |
# Mathematical Mindset
I agree that [optimization amplifies](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/zEvqFtT4AtTztfYC4/optimization-amplifies?postId=zEvqFtT4AtTztfYC4&view=postCommentsNew) things. I also agree that a mathematical mindset is important for AI alignment. I don't, however, think that a "mathematical mindset... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wxBBRzR4FS7nGBjbD/mathematical-mindset |
# Melatonin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
_\[I am not a sleep specialist. Please consult with one before making any drastic changes or trying to treat anything serious.\]_
[Van Geijlswijk et al](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2982730/) describe supplemental melatonin as “a chronobiotic drug with hy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4cKD9iTWHaE7f3AJ/melatonin-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Are pre-specified utility functions about the real world possible in principle?
_Preface: I think my question is a rather basic one, but I haven't been able to find a good answer to it yet. I did find one [post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8ijLnSE9aqXDLdGW/could-utility-functions-be-for-narrow-ai-only-and-downr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZFuwgLfRH4qyFTMib/are-pre-specified-utility-functions-about-the-real-world |
# An Agent is a Worldline in Tegmark V
If asked to define what an _agent_ is, my usual answer -- one of them, anyway -- is “a [worldline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_line) in Tegmark V”.
The Tegmark Level V Multiverse (the “V” here is a Roman numeral) is not defined by [Max Tegmark](https://arxiv.org/pdf/0905... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/brQYmeX4HFrPbs4XP/an-agent-is-a-worldline-in-tegmark-v |
# Probability is a model, frequency is an observation: Why both halfers and thirders are correct in the Sleeping Beauty problem.
This post was inspired by a yet another post talking about the [Sleeping Beauty problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem): [Repeated (and improved) Sleeping Beauty ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YyJ8roBHhD3BhdXWn/probability-is-a-model-frequency-is-an-observation-why-both |
# A Sarno-Hanson Synthesis
_Content note: Speculative, relies on assumptions that may not be true, but generally points at something that I believe to be a useful map, with potentially important implications if true, and am interested in feedback._
[John Sarno](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_E._Sarno) is the prof... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C2RPciGt6N5qW4Tv9/a-sarno-hanson-synthesis |
# Secondary Stressors and Tactile Ambition
I'm constantly on the lookout for _**words and phrases that map well to reality**. _
If you study history and if you study language, even just a little bit, you wind up realizing that for most of history, _there was often_ _a_ _distinct_ _lack of words and phrases_ _crucial ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mQD9w9AFdnKHnr7wF/secondary-stressors-and-tactile-ambition |
# LW Update 2018-7-14 – Styling Rework, CommentsItem,
Performance
**Performance Updates**
* Implemented server side rendering for the frontpage, and for post pages. Now, most relevant content should load quite quickly (so you can begin reading), and then the bulk of the web-app will load a few seconds later.
* Cl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q9JeAnQxy3jcjdi8u/lw-update-2018-7-14-styling-rework-commentsitem-performance |
# Generating vs Recognizing
_\[A distinction to be aware of is when a task requires you to Recognize (i.e. verify, note, observe, etc.) something versus Generate (i.e. brainstorm, create, compose, etc.) something. These tasks can seem quite similar, but I claim that Recognizing is both easier and less valuable. Three... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rb8STdhzLJHSReGyD/generating-vs-recognizing |
# Boltzmann Brains and Within-model vs. Between-models Probability
**Why Boltzmann brains?**
Back in the days of Ludwig Boltzmann (before the ~1912 discovery of galactic redshift), it seemed like the universe could be arbitrarily old. Since the second law of thermodynamics says that everything tends to a state of hig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yzrXFWTAwEWaA7yv5/boltzmann-brains-and-within-model-vs-between-models |
# Expected Pain Parameters
A problem I sometimes have is that someone will suggest that I do something uncomfortable - physically or emotionally, whichever - and they'll acknowledge that it's not going to feel good.
And then they won't follow up by explaining exactly how much and in what way it's supposed to hurt, le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KXy5mMJnv79PuNP8n/expected-pain-parameters |
# Meetup Cookbook
My spouse and I have been running LessWrong meetups in two different cities for the past six years. Over time, we've gotten lazier and lazier about organizing, while still maintaining similar results, mostly by coming up with a bunch of simple recipes and scripts for running meetups. Here I have docu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ousockk82npcPLqDc/meetup-cookbook |
# Announcement: AI alignment prize round 3 winners and next round
We (Zvi Mowshowitz and Vladimir Slepnev) are happy to announce the results of the third round of the [AI Alignment Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SSEyiHaACSYDHcYZz/announcement-ai-alignment-prize-round-2-winners-and-next), funded by Paul Christi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/juBRTuE3TLti5yB35/announcement-ai-alignment-prize-round-3-winners-and-next |
# An optimistic explanation of the outrage epidemic
Lots of people agree the internet is full of outrage content these days. I think this is so obvious I'm not even going to post sources that say it.
Why this is the case isn't completely clear. I count at least four common theories which of course aren't exclusive:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lwk5nuYenSCDYcnLd/an-optimistic-explanation-of-the-outrage-epidemic |
# Buridan's ass in coordination games
Consider a simple coordination game. In this game, two players (player 1 and player 2) each simultaneously choose an action, X or Y. If they both choose X, they both get 1 utility. If they both choose Y, they both get < refresh to render LaTeX > utility for some < refresh to rende... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xpDnGaKz472qB4LY/buridan-s-ass-in-coordination-games |
# Compact vs. Wide Models
I recently found a label I like for one of the obstacles to AI alignment that I think about frequently. I think of it as "compact models" vs. "wide models," which I'll try to define by suggestive naming, followed by example. It seems easy to verify that compact models have particular properti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JkCPkMxuftohieb8B/compact-vs-wide-models |
# Alignment Newsletter #15: 07/16/18
**Highlights**
--------------
**[Feature-wise transformations](https://distill.pub/2018/feature-wise-transformations/)** _(Vincent Dumoulin et al)_: This Distill article is about transformations on features using FiLM (feature-wise linear modulation). A FiLM layer is used to "cond... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EQ9dBequfxmeYzhz6/alignment-newsletter-15-07-16-18 |
# Look Under the Light Post
There's a well-worn story you've probably heard before about looking for keys under a light post. If you've not heard it before:
> A man leaves the bar after a long night of drinking. He stumbles all the way home only to find when he gets there that he doesn't have his keys. He knows he ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jpbWBBqjf9csXqeTK/look-under-the-light-post |
# September CFAR Workshop
Applications are open for the last general-admission CFAR workshop of the year. We'll be taking about 25 people total. Interviews are open from now until 8/14, at which point we'll send out acceptance/waitlist emails
Apply at [cfaradmissions.youcanbook.me](http://cfaradmissions.youcanbook.me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/9ZaJBcfDyFCXqmGFC/september-cfar-workshop |
# How To Use Bureaucracies
_This is an excerpt from the draft of_ _[my upcoming book](http://samoburja.com/gft)_ _on great founder theory. It was originally published on SamoBurja.com. You can_ _[access the original here.](http://samoburja.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/brQwWwZSQbWBFRNvh/how-to-use-bureaucracies-1 |
# Figuring out what Alice wants, part I
This is a very preliminary two-part post sketching out the direction I'm taking my research now (second post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rcXaY3FgoobMkH2jc/figuring-out-what-alice-wants-part-ii)). I'm expecting and hoping that everything in here will get superseded qui... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/so78tQvTCaBgw4bfL/figuring-out-what-alice-wants-part-i |
# Figuring out what Alice wants, part II
This post continues the analysis started in the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/so78tQvTCaBgw4bfL/figuring-out-what-alice-wants-part-i). Here I will present some examples of algorithms operating in certain environments, seeing how the model certain things, and u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rcXaY3FgoobMkH2jc/figuring-out-what-alice-wants-part-ii |
# A Step-by-step Guide to Finding a (Good!) Therapist
The process of finding a good therapist is unlike the process of finding most professionals. If your dentist nags you to floss more every time you see them, it's annoying, but unlikely to really affect the quality of their work. In therapeutic work, however, most o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WvNLgpLzFWyGY8Wck/a-step-by-step-guide-to-finding-a-good-therapist |
# Generalized Kelly betting
\[tl;dr: It's a mess, don't go there\]
\[Thanks to Diff for proof reading this post\]
[Kelly betting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion) has the [very nice property](http://shlegeris.com/2018/04/11/kelly) that if a gambler is betting according to a given world model, and the a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/97tCruegbz8GXRFzi/generalized-kelly-betting |
# LW Update 2018-07-18 – AlignmentForum Bug Fixes
Git commit: 882df0fe53f3c2bb04fac76d5b631f32cab28b1b
**AlignmentForum**
* If a non-AlignmentForum member's post gets moved to AlignmentForum, they can now comment on that post.
* Fixed the bug on LessWrong where canceling a vote on a non-AF post briefly showed a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NbKXJECKen7JgG5pv/lw-update-2018-07-18-alignmentforum-bug-fixes |
# Solving the AI Race Finalists
[Good AI](https://www.goodai.com/) offered a prize for writing about AI races. The results are in and here are the winners:
#### **Top scoring solutions ($3,000 each)**
* **Kesavan Athimoolam,** [Solving the Artificial Intelligence Race: Mitigating the problems associated with the A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GnEw9HtjhvBmorLro/solving-the-ai-race-finalists |
# Probability is Real, and Value is Complex
(This post idea is due entirely to Scott Garrabrant, but it has been several years and he hasn't written it up.)
In 2009, [Vladimir Nesov observed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kYgWmKJnqq8QkbjFj/bayesian-utility-representing-preference-by-probability) that probability ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oheKfWA7SsvpK7SGp/probability-is-real-and-value-is-complex |
# The Psychology Of Resolute Agents
Epistemic Status: Exploratory
Consider [Parfit's Hitchhiker](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Parfit's_hitchhiker) from the perspective of a completely selfish agent:
> "Suppose you're out in the desert, running out of water, and soon to die - when someone in a motor vehicle drives... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZwsSkrqsWvJoh6RC8/the-psychology-of-resolute-agents |
# Can few-shot learning teach AI right from wrong?
**0: Introduction**
In a post a few months ago on [pointing to environmental goals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wujPGixayiZSMYfm6/stable-pointers-to-value-ii-environmental-goals), Abram Demski reminded me of the appeal of defining good behavior by extensional exa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5iAMEmDkvKqHH5LZc/can-few-shot-learning-teach-ai-right-from-wrong |
# Conceptual problems with utility functions, second attempt at explaining
_\[Followup to: [Conceptual problems with utility functions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nx4DsTpMaoTiTp4RQ/conceptual-problems-with-utility-functions)\]_
The previous post was me flailing my arms about wildly trying to gesture at somethin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QmeguSp4Pm7gecJCz/conceptual-problems-with-utility-functions-second-attempt-at |
# Stable Pointers to Value III: Recursive Quantilization
This is a very loose idea.
In Stable [Pointers to Value II](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1762), I pointed at a loose hierarchy of approaches in which you try to get rid of the wireheading problem by revising the feedback loop to remove the incentive to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bEa4FuLS4r7hExoty/stable-pointers-to-value-iii-recursive-quantilization |
# San Francisco Meetup: Articles
We'll be discussing [Problem Solving with Mazes and Crayon](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPBmbgYZpsGqkiz2R/problem-solving-with-mazes-and-crayon) and [Book Review: Capital in the Twenty-First Century](http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/06/24/book-review-capital-in-the-twenty-first-centu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/oTr6GwNtCoAcqFyvf/san-francisco-meetup-articles |
# 12 Virtues of Rationality posters/icons
I was trying to take a break today, and ended up redesigning the staircase at our group house (Event Horizon), which is the first thing you see when you enter the house. One thing me and Claire ([mingyuan](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/mingyuan)) came up with, was to design ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAFuuqpDcMztQGt7P/12-virtues-of-rationality-posters-icons |
# Exorcizing the Speed Prior?
What follows is an argument against finding optimization daemons with too much probability mass in the speed prior. The argument is very fake, but perhaps it could inspire real math down the line. The intuition isn't so different from the one in [are minimal circuits daemon free?](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Say4sCQ2g22HGsbRT/exorcizing-the-speed-prior |
# Simplicio and Sophisticus
Previously (Slate Star Codex): [The Whole City is Center](http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/07/18/the-whole-city-is-center/)
Epistemic Status:
Note that after writing a lot of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eSnJWqmSm64uGeFbD/simplicio-and-sophisticus |
# Who Wants The Job?
Over this last month, my wife and I searched for and hired a new nanny, as ours had decided to learn programming and move to The Bay.
We ended up with a wonderful woman we found through a personal recommendation on a local mailing list. Her previous employer posted saying, hire this woman, she’s ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nnsGYH2npLfsq8Xhg/who-wants-the-job |
# The Biggest Problem in your Life
Mathematician Richard Hamming used to ask scientists in other fields "What are the most important problems in your field?" partly so he could troll them by asking "Why aren't you working on them?" and partly because getting asked this question is really useful for focusing people's a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/rnFLc3E5Y4FP8TSGC/the-biggest-problem-in-your-life |
# Replace yourself before you stop organizing your community.
**Alternate title:** _Always_ be working to replace yourself in whatever capacity people rely on you.
_\[CN: This post has some competing access needs, and I made a tradeoff in a particular direction. I intend this as an earnest, important suggestion, not ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hquyBeyoeskqhzT9n/replace-yourself-before-you-stop-organizing-your-community |
# Let's Discuss Functional Decision Theory
I've just finished reading through [Functional Decision Theory: A New Theory of Rationality](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05060.pdf), but there are some rather basic questions that are left unanswered since it focused on comparing it to Casual Decision Theory and Evidential Dec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2THFt7BChfCgwYDeA/let-s-discuss-functional-decision-theory |
# Alignment Newsletter #16: 07/23/18
**Highlights**
--------------
**[Seedbank — discover machine learning examples](https://medium.com/tensorflow/seedbank-discover-machine-learning-examples-2ff894542b57)** _(Michael Tyka)_: Seedbank provides interactive machine learning examples in Colab notebooks (think Jupyter not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63nvBi4ooCAsKCphw/alignment-newsletter-16-07-23-18 |
# The risk of an American Civil War is remote
_This essay was originally published on SamoBurja.com. You can_ _[access the original here.](http://samoburja.com/the-risk-of-an-american-civil-war-is-remote/)_
Every now and then I hear people e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qGKt6QvWm8JaGHzJN/the-risk-of-an-american-civil-war-is-remote |
# LessWrong Meetup for Hamming Circle's
While he was at Bell Labs, the mathematician Richard Hamming was known ([http://www.paulgraham.com/hamming.html](https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.paulgraham.com%2Fhamming.html&h=AT2Laz2cBlPJioHzjsThR6Ofwj2OtBKDkHugXJQp2F0UVFGDGJukeUMFmLMw-e8vl6RfXIpJpg9WURz2z_19kN... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Xxx5vn72vudKwckko/lesswrong-meetup-for-hamming-circle-s |
# ISO: Name of Problem
I'm looking for a name for a problem. I expect it already has one, but I don't know what it is.
The problem: suppose we have an AI trying to learn what people want - e.g. an IRL variant. Intuitively speaking, we point at a bunch of humans and say “figure out what they want, then do that”. A few... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NA5LYobKuFMKCvzMo/iso-name-of-problem |
# Computational efficiency reasons not to model VNM-rational preference relations with utility functions
The VNM theorem is constructive; given a rational preference relation, it is easy to construct a corresponding utility function. But in may cases, it may be computationally intractable to choose between two lotteri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WXCBFpLj894dEte8Q/computational-efficiency-reasons-not-to-model-vnm-rational |
# The Evil Genie Puzzle
Foolish you. You decided to rub a lamp in the hope that a genie would appear and you found one, only it's an Evil Genie. He tells you only have two options: either wishing for your perfect life or being pelted with rotten eggs. You start thinking about how wonderful your new life will be, but o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YSEtEtqf8hRBhKBS9/the-evil-genie-puzzle |
# Narrow AI Nanny:
Reaching Strategic Advantage via Narrow AI to Prevent Creation of the Dangerous Superintelligence
**Abstract**: As there are no currently obvious ways to create safe self-improving superintelligence, but its emergence is looming, we probably need temporary ways to prevent its creation. The only way... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ysKDyQDPK3dDAbkT/narrow-ai-nanny-reaching-strategic-advantage-via-narrow-ai |
# Fading Novelty
A core aspect of human experience is our pursuit of novelty. There is something tantalizing about seeking out new pleasures, sensations, and experiences that feels hard-coded into how we operate. “Variety is the spice of life” and all that.
Conversely, things which were once new eventually lose their... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qPKbLpSRRw89zdkJn/fading-novelty |
# Invest In Yourself - Los Angeles LW/SSC Meetup #68 (Wednesday, July 25th)
Location: Wine Bar next to the Landmark Theater in the Westside Pavilion (10850 W Pico Blvd #312, Los Angeles, CA 90064). We will move **upstairs (to the 3rd floor hallway) as soon as we reach capacity**.
Time: 7 pm (July 25th)
Parking: Ava... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/655PdgPLEFXWjppxE/invest-in-yourself-los-angeles-lw-ssc-meetup-68-wednesday |
# Don't Get Distracted by the Boilerplate
_Author’s Note: Please don’t get scared off by the first sentence. I promise it's not as bad as it sounds._
There’s a theorem from the early days of group theory which says that any continuous, monotonic function which does not depend on the order of its inputs can be transfo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybKP6e5K7e2o7dSgP/don-t-get-distracted-by-the-boilerplate |
# Would you benefit from audio versions of posts?
I know two people who have a hard time reading, but totally enjoy audio versions of blogposts and were only able to consume the sequences via audiobook.
Curious how common this is, and how much low hanging fruit there is vis-a-vis either making audio versions of posts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KT5kBdE62irAzRXq2/would-you-benefit-from-audio-versions-of-posts |
# Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
Epistemic Status: Resident Expert
I’m a little late on this, which was an old promise to Robin Hanson (not that he asked for it). I was motivated to deal with this again by the launch of Augur (REP), the crypto prediction market token. And by the crypto prediction market token... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a4jRN9nbD79PAhWTB/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work |
# Culture, interpretive labor, and tidying one's room
While tidying my room, I felt the onset of the usual cognitive fatigue. But this time, I didn't just want to bounce off the task - I was _curious_. When I inspected the fatigue, to see what it was made of, it felt similar to when I'm trying to thread a rhetorical n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WJGZzk4QbKPxzaHae/culture-interpretive-labor-and-tidying-one-s-room |
# Model-building and scapegoating
When talking about undesirable traits, we may want to use simple labels. On one hand, simple labels have the virtue of efficiently pointing to an important cluster of behavioral predictions. On the other, they tend to focus attention on the question of whether the person so described ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bpQZNtFzJZST8Mxig/model-building-and-scapegoating |
# Counterfactual outcome state transition parameters
Today, my paper ["The choice of effect measure for binary outcomes: Introducing counterfactual outcome state transition parameters"](https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/em.ahead-of-print/em-2016-0014/em-2016-0014.xml?format=INT) has been published in the journal _Epide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K3d93AfFE5owfpkx4/counterfactual-outcome-state-transition-parameters |
# Some intuition on why consciousness seems subjective
_This is an essay I wrote a few years back that some people have found helpful. The writing needs some polishing but I'm posting as-is. Thanks to Ruairi Donelly for originally encouraging me to write it and now also for encouraging me to post it here. Summary is a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cdHLKkcrvDnf9846r/some-intuition-on-why-consciousness-seems-subjective |
# LW Update 2018-07-27 – Sharing Drafts
Most of our current work continues to be on making the codebase theme-able, so that [AlignmentForum](http://alignmentforum.org/) and the upcoming new [EA Forum](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1qv/ea_forum_20_initial_announcement/) can easily be re-styled.
However, we've got a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/392KZcDbGNTwaKr96/lw-update-2018-07-27-sharing-drafts |
# Anthropics: A Short Note on the Fission Riddle
In the [I-Less Eye](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WJ9t6FPPrN6ijBzXF/the-i-less-eye), R Wallace considers a situation where an entity clones itself a hundred times that leads to a surprising paradox. I'll argue that there's a rather simple flaw with the argument made i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/htxNcJyyLuhySzMnK/anthropics-a-short-note-on-the-fission-riddle |
# Decisions are not about changing the world, they are about learning what world you live in
[Cross-posted from my blog](https://donerkebabphilosophy.wordpress.com/2018/07/28/decisions-are-not-about-changing-the-world-they-are-about-learning-what-world-you-live-in/).
**_Epistemic status: Probably discussed to death i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TQvSZ4n4BuntC22Af/decisions-are-not-about-changing-the-world-they-are-about |
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