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# Archiving link posts?
**[Link rot is a huge problem.](http://www.gwern.net/Archiving-URLs)** At the same time, many posts on Less Wrong—including some of the most important posts, which talk about important concepts or otherwise advance our collective knowledge and understanding—are link posts, which means that a **... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ftadCBW8mJZKByqsT/archiving-link-posts |
# [Hammertime Final Exam] Accommodate Yourself; Kindness Is An Epistemic Virtue; Privileging the Future
\[this is my entry for the [Hammertime Final Exam](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/qRxTKm7DAftSuTGvj/p/Q7MsMshzbzhEs729s). I answered all three prompts but took much longer than five minutes writing each part.\]
**1\. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XrLuf9MzmWsKwqAng/hammertime-final-exam-accommodate-yourself-kindness-is-an |
# On Robin Hanson’s Board Game
Previously: [You Play to Win the Game](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/08/30/you-play-to-win-the-game/), [Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work/), [Subsidizing Prediction Markets](https://thezvi.wordpress.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fs2ozRQ4osJr9Wbfu/on-robin-hanson-s-board-game |
# An Ontology of Systemic Failures: Dragons, Bullshit Mountain, and the Cloud of Doom
**Core Claim**
--------------
I assert that a lot of value can be achieved by categorizing systemic failures into four broad categories.
For the sake of pithiness, I will name them "bugs", "dragons", "bullshit mountain", and "t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2rgDr5WC82P7XQo9z/an-ontology-of-systemic-failures-dragons-bullshit-mountain |
# Advances in Baby Formula
Someone is finally trying.
Four years ago I was shopping for baby formula. I was horrified to discover that most formulas were mostly fructose and soybean oil. Including the fancy ‘organic’ ones. Humans digest fructose hepatically, and overconsumption of fructose has been implicated in a v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qabosKGeAhAhq2kjg/advances-in-baby-formula |
# Comment on decision theory
A comment I made on social media last year about why MIRI cares about making progress on [decision theory](https://intelligence.org/2017/10/22/fdt/):
* * *
We aren't working on decision theory in order to make sure that AGI systems are decision-theoretic, whatever that would involve. We'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKbxi2EJ3KBNRDGpL/comment-on-decision-theory |
# Good Citizenship Is Out Of Date
Norms of good citizenship have been declining. These norms are a crucial piece of social technology vital to the health of local communities and institutions. While good citizenship norms are certainly still present in America today, they are substantially weaker than they were in the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zyknvp4Dt9eoMrw2N/good-citizenship-is-out-of-date |
# San Francisco Meetup: Deep Questions
We’re trying a new format this week!
How Deep Questions works: We’ll break into pairs. Each pair will take turns answering one of a selected list of open-ended meaningful questions (e.g. “What in life gets you really excited?”, “What’s one thing you’ve never told someone before ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/ysc7Qe8B6W3h7KX4N/san-francisco-meetup-deep-questions |
# Disagreement with Paul: alignment induction
I had a discussion with [Paul Christiano](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/paulfchristiano), about his [Iterated Amplification and Distillation](https://ai-alignment.com/iterated-distillation-and-amplification-157debfd1616) scheme. We had a disagreement, a disagreement that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h3Fp3Erddwnm5uthZ/disagreement-with-paul-alignment-induction |
# Alignment Newsletter #23
Highlights
**[Visual Reinforcement Learning with Imagined Goals](https://bair.berkeley.edu/blog/2018/09/06/rig/)** _(Vitchyr Pong and Ashvin Nair)_: This is a blog post explaining a paper by the same name that I covered in [AN #16](https://mailchi.mp/f2950ed2ac4b/alignment-newsletter-16). I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KAmEZMYE3QKGmKBNd/alignment-newsletter-23 |
# A Dialogue on Rationalist Activism
You're walking home through a cornfield late one night when a streak of light splits the sky like a sheet. When your vision clears, you see a golden saucer hovering before you, which deposits a human figure onto the now-flattened cornstalks right in front of you, and then vanishes ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rx9GLepCxctXDqCPc/a-dialogue-on-rationalist-activism |
# The Scent of Bad Psychology
Inspired by the [psychology replication quiz](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KsyD6GmFN2EtirX74/psychology-replication-quiz), I've come up with four rules to tell bullshit studies in psychology from real ones:
1\. The rule of antisignificance
2\. The rule of Taleb's grandma
3\. The rul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yqyRehtuHGKjFeiYc/the-scent-of-bad-psychology |
# Track-Back Meditation
Intro -- Looking Back on Looking Back
-------------------------------------
At a CFAR event, Anna once (iirc) put forward the following idea: when you notice that you are distracted, try to think back to when you were last paying attention, recalling as much as you can of the sequence of where... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/riyvpus8x9sXa3W57/track-back-meditation |
# Boltzmann brain decision theory
Suppose I told you that you had many [Boltzmann brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain) copies of you. Is it then your duty to be as happy as possible, so that these copies were also happy?
(Now some people might argue that you can't really make yourself happy through m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZvmicfmGg9LWBvy2D/boltzmann-brain-decision-theory |
# Petrov corrigibility
After my [example](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T5ZyNq3fzN59aQG5y/the-limits-of-corrigibility) of problems with corrigibility, and Eliezer pointing out that sometimes corrigibility [may involve saying "there is no corrigible action"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nbhTzEosM9sqEvr6P/corrigibi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4g29JgtbJ283iJ3Bh/petrov-corrigibility |
# HPS Reading Group, Session I
This first session will include a bit of an introduction, where we each state our background and interests in the history and philosophy of science, as well as our expectations and hopes for the reading group. Then we will discuss "The Demise of the Demarcation Problem" by Larry Laudan. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/7tucD8iPQJpQTgech/hps-reading-group-session-i |
# (A -> B) -> A
This post is about following type signature, which I call the type of agency: (A→B)→A. You can also think of it as consequentialism or doing things on purpose. This post will be a rant with a bunch of random thoughts related to this type signature, and it will likely not make sense. It will also be sl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhsELHzAHFebRJE59/a-greater-than-b-greater-than-a |
# Iterative Arguments: Alternative to Adversarial Collaboration
I've been toying with an idea of developing two competing theories in
parallel in an iterative manner:
1. $A$ writes an initial thesis
2. $B$ does the same
3. $A$ revises their thesis to address $B$'s thesis where it contradicts that of $A$'s
4. $B$ does... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3pq9B4WSPT8yXc8XS/iterative-arguments-alternative-to-adversarial-collaboration |
# Moderation Reference
This is a repository of moderation decisions that we expect to make semi-frequently, where it's somewhat complicated to explain our reasoning but we don't want that explanation to end up dominating a thread. We'll be adding to this over time, and/or converting it into a more scalable format once... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/njbe3gwkS4KX9bd3d/moderation-reference |
# Are you in a Boltzmann simulation?
**EDIT**: Donald Hobson has [pointed out a mistake](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ygELzNSAF5nzLXD7j/are-you-in-a-boltzmann-simulation#X2eGRvaEEndpRJmLB) in the reasoning in the section on nucleation. If we know that an area of space-time has a disproportionately high number of ob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ygELzNSAF5nzLXD7j/are-you-in-a-boltzmann-simulation |
# [Paper]: Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes
Our paper "Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes" is [published](https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/full/10.1108/FS-04-2018-0031) in Foresight. The preprint is [here](https://philpapers.org/rec/TURIAR).
This article continues a [series](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o4EEEtxwfxuXeJZ2L/paper-islands-as-refuges-for-surviving-global-catastrophes |
# What To Do If Nuclear War Seems Imminent
This document describes precautions to take in a scenario like the Cuban Missile Crisis, where nuclear war seems plausibly imminent within the next days or weeks. This is _not_ a guide for what to do if a missile is currently inbound and will strike within minutes or hours.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uTjw5QeMtqazZuJhq/what-to-do-if-nuclear-war-seems-imminent |
# Apply for Emergent Ventures
Original Post (Marginal Revolution): [Emergent Adventures: A New Project to Help Foment Enlightenment](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/09/emergent-ventures-new-project-help-foment-enlightenment.html)
Today, two new philanthropic projects announced funding.
### Jef... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7gd6HehTBa8my6wEj/apply-for-emergent-ventures |
# How to use a microphone r̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ during public speaking
Microphones are common technology and yet few people understand how they work. For our purposes here, there are unidirectional microphones and omnidirectional microphones.
A unidirectional microphone only reco... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XjrXjaMqLSp56fsD6/how-to-use-a-microphone-r-a-t-i-o-n-a-l-l-y-during-public |
# Communication: A Simple Multi-Stage Model
_\[Communication is a lot like a game of telephone. Information needs to flow from your head to the the medium to the other person to the other person's head. As a result, there are lots of places where miscommunication can happen. Some actionable suggestions are given for h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2GHxvfoRvNGZw4iFg/communication-a-simple-multi-stage-model |
# Open AI co-founder on AGI
Here's a talk where Open AI co-founder Ilya Sutskever talks about the issue of AI progress and AGI. (Before the timestamp he was talking about Open AI's specific projects such as Dota 2 and their hand robot).
tl;dw: (_italics_ indicate my interpolations):
* AGI in the near-medium term c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D2z8eQWnosNnbEBdD/open-ai-co-founder-on-agi |
# Realism about rationality
_Epistemic status: trying to vaguely gesture at vague intuitions. A similar idea was [explored here](https://intelligence.org/files/HowIntelligible.pdf) under the heading "the intelligibility of intelligence", although I hadn't seen it before writing this post. As of 2020, I consider [this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/suxvE2ddnYMPJN9HD/realism-about-rationality |
# Fundamental Philosophical Problems Inherent in AI discourse
Historically AI had several winters, where hype bubbles rose and collapsed. It is also full of pronouncements or predictions such as
“We think that a significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems if a carefully selected group of scientis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YY8Srrw99fvuGXod5/fundamental-philosophical-problems-inherent-in-ai-discourse |
# Berkeley REACH Supporters Update: September 2018
Since our big fundraising push at the end of June (thanks!), REACH has been making progress on a number of fronts.
### Finances & Structure
The June fundraising push let us commit to a 13-month lease (Aug 1, 2018 - Aug 31, 2019).
In June, we raised about $18k in on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zevenyZ4NNktwC2Xu/berkeley-reach-supporters-update-september-2018 |
# Team Cohesion and Exclusionary Egalitarianism
**I. Teamwork: that shouldn't be too hard, eh?**
Sooner or later, most people who want to make a difference in the world start thinking about how to have highly effective teams, teamwork, and collaboration.
On the surface, it seems like it should be simple and straight... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S3yBe7QKQFuKqRTaQ/team-cohesion-and-exclusionary-egalitarianism |
# Alignment Newsletter #24
Starting from this week, Richard Ngo will join me in writing summaries. His summaries are marked as such; I'm reviewing some of them now but expect to review less over time.
Highlights
----------
**[Introducing the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YTG348f4pEYcicwQ3/alignment-newsletter-24 |
# HLAI 2018 Talks
The keynote and general interest talks from [HLAI 2018](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/axsizR4vEX8qtuLpR/hlai-2018-field-report) are available online, along with a few others. Sadly the panel I participated in was not fully recorded, but [there is a short video of an excerpt of it](https://www.youtu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LZoAaXfhJqpvmyrtA/hlai-2018-talks |
# Defining by opposites
In [Taboo your words](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/SGB7Y5WERh4skwtnb/p/WBdvyyHLdxZSAMmoz) Eliezer talks about how confusion occurs when people are using the same word to mean something different. Refusing to use the word in question can help with the discussion. He mainly focusses on philosophic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YkMTXJW5NgcJ3EKYp/defining-by-opposites |
# Towards a New Impact Measure
_In which I propose a closed-form solution to [low impact](https://arbital.com/p/low_impact/), increasing [corrigibility](https://arbital.com/p/corrigibility/) and seemingly taking major steps to neutralize [basic AI drives](https://selfawaresystems.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/ai_drives_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEa7kwoMpsBgaBCgb/towards-a-new-impact-measure |
# Psycho-cybernetics: experimental notes
This post is a series of missives and notes I took while reading [a popularization of cybernetics concepts as applied to self-help](https://www.amazon.com/New-Psycho-Cybernetics-Maxwell-Maltz/dp/0735202850) that was hugely influential in the self help field when first published... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kMhdP7Tv69qzBq7t/psycho-cybernetics-experimental-notes |
# LW Update 2018-09-18 – Email Subscriptions for Curated
**Subscribe to Curated via RSS or Email** – We added a system to subscribe to things via email. So far we've only implemented it for the curated feed, but we'll soon be implementing it for other things.
**Private Messages –** We overhauled the PM styling so tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cCMAoNyr9TPayuSxM/lw-update-2018-09-18-email-subscriptions-for-curated |
# Web of connotations: Bleggs, Rubes, thermostats and beliefs
This is a series of posts with the modest goal of showing on how you can get syntax from semantics, solve the [grounding problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbol_grounding_problem), and start looking for [models within](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ix3KdfJxjo9GQFkCo/web-of-connotations-bleggs-rubes-thermostats-and-beliefs |
# Bridging syntax and semantics, empirically
**EDIT**: *I've found that using humans to detect intruders, is a more illustrative example than the temperature example one of this post. The intruder example can be found [in this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bbw6c9as5STvWXAgB/syntax-vs-semantics-alarm-better-exa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EEPdbtvW8ei9Yi2e8/bridging-syntax-and-semantics-empirically |
# Book review: Why we sleep
I read this book (by a sleep scientist called Matthew Walker) because I knew that it would tell me to sleep more, and I hoped it would cite enough scary statistics that I'd be likely to actually follow through. Well, it worked - I'm keeping a copy on my bedside table for the foreseeable fut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MaH3q45LnhoPLACQL/book-review-why-we-sleep |
# In Logical Time, All Games are Iterated Games
Logical Time
============
The main purpose of this post is to introduce the concept of logical time. The idea was mentioned in Scott's post, [Bayesian Probability is for things that are Space-like Separated from You](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/FvcyMMaJKhYibtFD... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dKAJqBDZRMMsaaYo5/in-logical-time-all-games-are-iterated-games |
# Against the barbell strategy
Nassim Nicholas Taleb recommends that instead of the balanced portfolio of investments recommended by portfolio theory, we follow a "barbell" strategy of putting most of our assets in a maximally safe, stable investment, and making small, sustainable bets with very high potential upside.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZRbq9Wvjbqitco8d3/against-the-barbell-strategy |
# Advice Wanted; Reconcile with religious parent
Hi all,
So over the last month or so tension with my father has built up quite a bit. Context is that he is a strong believer in god (through Reform Judaism), and I'm not. He's generally a very open minded person who is cool with people having whatever beliefs they wan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TFLop54gXtKwzYrrz/advice-wanted-reconcile-with-religious-parent |
# (Some?) Possible Multi-Agent Goodhart Interactions
Epistemic Status: I need feedback on these ideas, and I've been delaying because I'm not sure I'm on the right track. This is the product of a lot of thinking, but I'm not sure the list is complete or there isn't something important I'm missing. (Note: This is inten... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9evYBqHAvKGR3rxMC/some-possible-multi-agent-goodhart-interactions |
# Book review: Happiness by Design
I've been reading a book called _Happiness by Design_, by Paul Dolan. Most of its material is very standard, but there was at least one thing I hadn't seen before. Dolan thinks that we should consider happiness to be a combination of the feelings of pleasure and purpose. He shows tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BAedeHtbhqQEpuANL/book-review-happiness-by-design |
# Reflective AIXI and Anthropics
It's possible to define a version of [Solomonoff Induction with Reflective Oracles](https://intelligence.org/files/ReflectiveSolomonoffAIXI.pdf), that allows an AIXI-like agent to consider hypotheses that include itself or other equally powerful agents, going partway towards addressing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K8FTuEdAbsHDDw3hR/reflective-aixi-and-anthropics |
# Bridging syntax and semantics with Quine's Gavagai
Quine [has an argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indeterminacy_of_translation) showing that you can never be sure what words mean in a foreign language:
>Quine uses the example of the word "**gavagai**" uttered by a native speaker of the unknown language Arunt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XApNuXPckPxwp5ZcW/bridging-syntax-and-semantics-with-quine-s-gavagai |
# Alignment Newsletter #25
Highlights
==========
**[Towards a New Impact Measure](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/yEa7kwoMpsBgaBCgb/towards-a-new-impact-measure)** _(Alex Turner)_: This post introduces a new idea for an impact measure. It defines impact as change in our ability to achieve goals. So, to measure i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s8JuDTo8mTcbHMcLW/alignment-newsletter-25 |
# Deep learning - deeper flaws?
In this post I summarise four lines of argument for why we should be skeptical about the potential of deep learning in its current form. I am fairly confident that the next breakthroughs in AI will come from some variety of neural network, but I think several of the objections below are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mbQSrox38WyT8c6tQ/deep-learning-deeper-flaws |
# AI Reading Group Thoughts (2/?): Reconstructive Psychosurgery
[Previously on AI Reading Group Thoughts](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v5GJzMYBobJCTJwXb/ai-reading-group-thoughts-1-the-mandate-of-heaven)
In a highly unofficial meeting of the AI Reading Group (most of the participants happened to be in a room and w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/miWmntgac22wEPnoE/ai-reading-group-thoughts-2-reconstructive-psychosurgery |
# A probabilistic off-switch that the agent is indifferent to
~~**Edit: I no longer think this post deserves attention.**~~
Abstract
========
This post presents a setup with an off-switch that is defective with probability of almost 0. The agent is indifferent to being terminated in worlds where the off-switch works... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HJ2T8x7tNRr58az7/a-probabilistic-off-switch-that-the-agent-is-indifferent-to |
# Wireheading as a potential problem with the new impact measure
In [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yEa7kwoMpsBgaBCgb/towards-a-new-impact-measure), [Alex Turner](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/turntrout) introduced a new way of measuring impact. The aim was to get a definition of [low impact](https://arx... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6EMdmeosYPdn74wuG/wireheading-as-a-potential-problem-with-the-new-impact |
# Direct Primary Care
_Epistemic Status: PSA and raising questions_
Medical care in the US is expensive. There aren’t that many demonstrated ways to make it drastically cheaper.
Direct primary care seems to be an exception. It makes routine medical expenses **95% cheaper.**
[Yes, really.](https://www.theobjectives... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqZWwPjrvP7tGiwSW/direct-primary-care |
# The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
*\[Epistemic status: Pretty good, but I make no claim this is original\]*
A neglected gem from Less Wrong: [Why The Tails Come Apart](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dC7mP5nSwvpL65Qu5/why-the-tails-come-apart), by commenter Thrasymachus. It explains why even when two vari... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/asmZvCPHcB4SkSCMW/the-tails-coming-apart-as-metaphor-for-life |
#
Moral differences in mediocristan
Scott Alexander [writes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/asmZvCPHcB4SkSCMW/the-tails-coming-apart-as-metaphor-for-life):
> _Utilitarianism agrees that we should give to charity and shouldn’t steal from the poor, because Utility, but take it far enough to the tails and we should ti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/utNiWbukDvWnt3E7T/moral-differences-in-mediocristan |
# Petrov Day - Los Angeles LW/SSC Meetup #76 (Wednesday, September 26th)
Location: Wine Bar next to the Landmark Theater in the Westside Pavilion (10850 W Pico Blvd #312, Los Angeles, CA 90064). We will move **upstairs (to the 3rd floor hallway) as soon as we reach capacity**.
Time: 7 pm (September 26th)
Parking: A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/a45szPJ8rh2vxDvXu/petrov-day-los-angeles-lw-ssc-meetup-76-wednesday-september |
# Thoughts on tackling blindspots
I went to my first CFAR workshop the other week, and it was quite intense/a lot. The biggest change by far has that I came face to face with some huge blindspots and can see more clearly many of the ways I've been fooling myself, not allowing myself to care about things, and pushing p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9mfLZtHSWgBwsH8DA/thoughts-on-tackling-blindspots |
# Asymptotic Decision Theory (Improved Writeup)
ADT [(asymptotic decision theory, initially detailed in this paper)](http://gallabytes.com/files/adt.pdf) was a proposed decision theory with logical inductors, developed after [EDT with logical inductors](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1399) and exploration steps... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yXCvYqTZCsfN7WRrg/asymptotic-decision-theory-improved-writeup |
# Anti-social Punishment
This is a cross post from [250bpm.com](http://250bpm.com/blog:132).
### Introduction
There's a trope among Slovak intellectual elite depicting an average Slovak as living in a village, sitting a local pub, drinking [Borovička](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borovi%C4%8Dka), criticizing everyo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X5RyaEDHNq5qutSHK/anti-social-punishment |
# Preventing s-risks via indexical uncertainty, acausal trade and domination in the multiverse
_TL;DR: Benevolent superintelligence could create many copies of each suffering observer-moment and thus “save” any observer from suffering via induced indexical uncertainty._
A lot of suffering has happened in the human (a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWx8LzasNutvmkPMf/preventing-s-risks-via-indexical-uncertainty-acausal-trade |
# New DeepMind AI Safety Research Blog
Very excited to announce the new DeepMind Safety Research blog! The [first post](https://medium.com/@deepmindsafetyresearch/building-safe-artificial-intelligence-52f5f75058f1) by Pedro [](https://www.facebook.com/peortega?fref=mentions&hc_location=group) Ortega and Vishal [](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y8ezvHWZXW232CkKr/new-deepmind-ai-safety-research-blog |
# Attacking enlightenment
I’m Calling it. An astounding number of community members are currently chasing enlightenment. That is, we are reading books, compiling information and meditating to pull apart the inner landscape of our own minds. The Buddhist, Taoist, Zen, spiritual, mystical, flow state, thing that is in t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ciy6PCDWfGCxqHez/attacking-enlightenment |
# Law without law: from observer states to physics via algorithmic information theory
_TL;DR: Nothing exists except random data strings and Solomonoff induction between them_.
There are papers that you dream you will write yourself one day, when you have plenty of time. As the idea is so crazy, you don’t expect that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FyBRgaadp4xWTzzYi/law-without-law-from-observer-states-to-physics-via |
# Criticism Scheduling and Privacy
# Scheduling criticism
> "Two times two is four ‘tis true
> But too empty and too trite
> I would rather seek a clue
> To some matters not so light."
_— W. Busch, Schein und Sein (Karl Popper's translation)_
Being in control of when, how, and what you get criticism on is a vital p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iSRCrE82G4dindJHZ/criticism-scheduling-and-privacy |
# EDT solves 5 and 10 with conditional oracles
# Introduction and motivation
The starting point for this post is a comment I wrote on [Paul's post on EDT vs CDT](https://sideways-view.com/2018/09/19/edt-vs-cdt/):
> One argument for CDT over EDT that you didn’t mention in this post: Suppose you live in a deterministi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rcwv6SPsmhkgzfkDw/edt-solves-5-and-10-with-conditional-oracles |
# The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Deep Learning
This essay consists of summaries, explanations, and discussions of several papers which provide high-level arguments and intuitions about why, conceptually, deep learning works. Particular areas of investigation are "Which classes of functions can deep neural nets appr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQu2YPtcm2dQLSsu9/the-unreasonable-effectiveness-of-deep-learning |
# Leto among the Machines
I've always been surprised that there's not more discussion of _Dune_ in rationalist circles, especially considering that:
**1.** It's a book all about people improving their minds to the point where they become superhuman.
**2\.** It's set in a world where AI Goal Alignment issues are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TifG2m7BYW2sGmAoR/leto-among-the-machines |
# GreaterWrong—new theme and many enhancements
*(Previous posts: [[1]](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/66DXhQJyPEJNsXgfw/an-alternative-way-to-browse-lesswrong-2-0), [[2]](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/43a8x6g2nKkxHXG4v/greaterwrong-several-new-features-and-enhancements), [[3]](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Se5Syb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xjgdtswhcxJTqu95Q/greaterwrong-new-theme-and-many-enhancements |
# The tails coming apart as a strategy for success
\[Epistemic status: A proposed causal mechanism for something I’ve been using for a while which seems to work empirically (n=1!)\]
So, [the tails come apart](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dC7mP5nSwvpL65Qu5/why-the-tails-come-apart). I really like the elegance of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8jwAvGtrwvKHYgoC7/the-tails-coming-apart-as-a-strategy-for-success |
# What the Haters Hate
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2018/09/27/what-the-haters-hate/). A bit more culture-warlike and snarky than the LW standard. Won't make as much sense to people outside the US. [Previously on the subject of the IDW and outgroups](https://quillette.com/2018/05/25/groups-g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RS7jX7e8Bhbcr2dHM/what-the-haters-hate |
# LW Update 2018-10-01 – Private Messaging Works
Along with various performance updates to improve site-speed, we've finally got a private messaging system that looks reasonable (and now works properly on mobile)
Noteworthy updates:
* When you send someone a private message (by navigating to their profile page and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ywnSdZHetzGxpKxu5/lw-update-2018-10-01-private-messaging-works |
# Separate comments feeds for different post listings views?
*(Inspired by discussions like [this one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RS7jX7e8Bhbcr2dHM/what-the-haters-hate/comment/6e79kZqd7RZhsPQGk), but also a thing that I’ve thought for a while would be a good idea.)*
Currently, there’s a single “recent comment... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEEvKfrL5uPicK3rT/separate-comments-feeds-for-different-post-listings-views |
# Alignment Newsletter #26
Highlights
**[Building safe artificial intelligence: specification, robustness, and assurance](https://medium.com/@deepmindsafetyresearch/building-safe-artificial-intelligence-52f5f75058f1)** _(Pedro A. Ortega, Vishal Maini et al)_ (summarized by Richard): In this blog post, the DeepMind sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZANm3Sbu5RxRca2zt/alignment-newsletter-26 |
# Reflections on Being 30
_Epistemic Status: Personal_
I haven’t written a lot of personal stuff here recently, because I’ve been doing a lot more private contemplation, and been busy with life things. (Nonprofit and baby, among other things.) But I thought I might want to put out some thoughts about what growing in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HPXikgjZeZaujzy99/reflections-on-being-30 |
# You're never wrong injecting complexity, but rarely you're right
_I just want to put this idea in the form of a post, to gather your impressions. I think it's my main rationalist failure mode._
Recently in a Facebook group, some poster has proposed this synthesis of Harari's book '21 lessons':
> In the 21st centur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6xyXtihuopg59qFdi/you-re-never-wrong-injecting-complexity-but-rarely-you-re |
# Epistemic Spot Check: The Dorito Effect (Mark Schatzker)
[Epistemic Spot Checks](https://acesounderglass.com/tag/epistemicspotcheck/) is a series in which I fact check claims a book makes, to determine its trustworthiness. It is not a book review or a check on every claim the book makes, merely a spot check of what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WKKFq9edw4uk2YxNQ/epistemic-spot-check-the-dorito-effect-mark-schatzker |
# Tabletop Game Night
This is a tabletop game night for the Vancouver rationality and effective altruism communities! Feel free to bring your own board, tile, or card games to play, but we'll have plenty here!
Feel free to bring plus-ones/friends! They don't have to be part of the community, but please RSVP.
Fee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/93Md6qTgos2aaRLvD/tabletop-game-night |
# Moloch in whom I sit alone
I went to a party. Arriving guests got stickers: cats and pineapples. Pineapples would have to talk in a big group, cats would be pairs and trios. Everyone knew the cats had it better.
I got there before the game. When the fifth person came, I broke off and sat alone. He sat with me. More... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fP6ncYH8mDJL5Njsc/moloch-in-whom-i-sit-alone |
# The Rocket Alignment Problem
The following is a fictional dialogue building off of [AI Alignment: Why It’s Hard, and Where to Start](https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/).
* * *
(_Somewhere in a not-very-near neighboring world, where science took a very different co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gg9a4y8reWKtLe3Tn/the-rocket-alignment-problem |
# Upcoming API changes: Upgrading to Open-CRUD syntax
_This post will only really be relevant to people who are using our API, so the vast majority of people can skip this._
We are about to update our API to the closest what graphQL currently has to an industry standard. Starting tomorrow morning (PST), you will be a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Xgr9TB4RDNpiMJAE/upcoming-api-changes-upgrading-to-open-crud-syntax |
# A Rationality Condition for CDT Is That It Equal EDT (Part 1)
_\[Epistemic Status: this series of two posts gives some arguments which, in my eyes, make it **difficult** to maintain a position other than CDT=EDT, but not impossible. As I explain at the end of the second post, it is still quite tenable to suppose tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XW6Qi2LitMDb2MF8c/a-rationality-condition-for-cdt-is-that-it-equal-edt-part-1 |
# Fasting Mimicking Diet Looks Pretty Good
_Epistemic status: pretty much factual._
_CW: diets, calories_
One of the odd things about working on longevity is that now people ask me for lifestyle advice.
Or they ask me what _I, personally _do to live longer.
Mostly my response has been a lame “um, nothing?”
There ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wze95DFpE6ahfngAi/fasting-mimicking-diet-looks-pretty-good |
# Anders Sandberg: "How to Shape the Future Sensibly"
Anders Sandberg will give a talk at Google's Campus Madrid on October 18 about far-future concerns and existential risks:
> The number of people alive today pales in comparison to the number who could exist in the future. It may therefore be extremely important to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/9F9rcafz7cBcD3cLE/anders-sandberg-how-to-shape-the-future-sensibly |
# The Valley of Bad Theory
[An interesting experiment](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/10/improving-not-learning.html): researchers set up a wheel on a ramp with adjustable weights. Participants in the experiment then adjust the weights to try and make the wheel roll down the ramp as quickly as ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gZP8t9BAg37bqxDzZ/the-valley-of-bad-theory |
# [link] "Paper strips" memory technique
I was skimming reddit and someone named Yakari posted in response to “what are your best studying techniques?” They described a studying method where they overlay strips of paper vertically on top of their notes as they study them, periodically adding more strips to obscure mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ARWodwaZN5AyaHnKM/link-paper-strips-memory-technique |
# Thinking of the days that are no more
In [a previous post](http://thinkingcomplete.blogspot.co.nz/2017/11/book-review-happiness-by-design.html), I talked about some of the biases which skew the evaluations of our memories carried out by our "remembering selves". One domain in which these biases are particularly prev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jBxdRGy4HcRTT45xG/thinking-of-the-days-that-are-no-more |
# Open Source Issue Roundup
There are a few particular items in our Github issue tracker, that I thought would make for good first issues for people who haven't coded for LessWrong yet (or have only done so a bit).
(In general, you can find recommended issues by [filtering by the "good first issue" tag](https://githu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XEDyCDDtMGJdfnixd/open-source-issue-roundup |
# Differential Progress and a Personal Commitment
Regarding the problem of differential progress in AI capability research vs AI Alignment research.
I intend to work in Artificial Intelligence, but I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ZKsCft9K2CKBWst9/differential-progress-and-a-personal-commitment |
# A compendium of conundrums
Logic puzzles
-------------
None of the puzzles below have trick answers - they can all be solved using logic and a bit of maths. Whenever a group of people need to achieve a task, assume they're allowed to confer and come up with a strategy beforehand. They're listed roughly in order... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iD9Mr57AKps3jH8Yi/a-compendium-of-conundrums |
# Things I Learned From Working With A Marketing Advisor
_Epistemic Status: Opinions stated without justification_
I’ve been getting a bunch of advice and help at LRI from a marketing/strategy expert, and it’s been an education. She’s been great to work with — she kicks my ass, in a good way. Basically, she takes my... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zWJp3wNoQQmHMdNKD/things-i-learned-from-working-with-a-marketing-advisor |
# Alignment Newsletter #27
Dan Hendrycks has now joined, and will likely write summaries primarily on adversarial examples and robustness. As with Richard, his summaries are marked as such; I'm reviewing some of them now but expect to review less over time.
Highlights
----------
**[80K podcast with Paul Christiano](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g7yj6afwKf5GurCyZ/alignment-newsletter-27 |
# A Rationality Condition for CDT Is That It Equal EDT (Part 2)
The [previous post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/XW6Qi2LitMDb2MF8c/a-rationality-condition-for-cdt-is-that-it-equal-edt-part-1) sketched an application of [Jessica's COEDT framework](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Rcwv6SPsmhkgzfkDw/edt-solve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tpWfDLZy2tk97MJ3F/a-rationality-condition-for-cdt-is-that-it-equal-edt-part-2 |
# On insecurity as a friend
There’s a common narrative about confidence that says that confidence is good, insecurity is bad. It’s better to develop your confidence than to be insecure. There’s an obvious truth to this.
But what that narrative does not acknowledge, and what both a person struggling with insecurity an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tW6nXrxsAKQmGSGgP/on-insecurity-as-a-friend |
# Decision Theory Anti-realism
This is crossposed from my [blog](https://rejectingrationality.org/blog/decision-theory-anti-realism/). While I think the ideas here are solid I think the presentation still needs some work so I'd also appreciate comments on the presentation so I can turn this into a more polished essay,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jzvDLtPkeLkpBEx9S/decision-theory-anti-realism |
# The funnel of human experience
_\[EDIT: Previous version of this post had a major error. Thanks for [jeff8765](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jeff8765) for pinpointing the error and esrogs in the Eukaryote Writes Blog comments for bringing it to my attention as well. This has been fixed. Also, I wrote FHI when I me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwBEJapZNzWFifLN6/the-funnel-of-human-experience |
# non-judgemental awareness
Alice and Bob are playing each other in tennis.
However their internal experience is quite different.
Alice: "I’ve got to keep my elbow straight, knees firm, don’t tense". Her experience is mentally effortful, there are lots of words in her internal monologue. She spends many mental cy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MCzM9TA6YrHzXCoS7/non-judgemental-awareness |
# Some cruxes on impactful alternatives to AI policy work
Ben Pace and I (Richard Ngo) recently did a public double crux at the Berkeley REACH on how valuable it is for people to go into AI policy and strategy work: I was optimistic and Ben was pessimistic. During the actual event, we didn't come anywhere near to find... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJB82jKwgJE5NsWgT/some-cruxes-on-impactful-alternatives-to-ai-policy-work |
# Eternal: The Exit Interview
Previously: [Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/02/10/eternal-and-hearthstone-economy-versus-magic-economy/), [The Eternal Grind](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/03/30/the-eternal-grind/), My [Referral Link](https://www.direwolfdigit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iTF8aHzNbJSPKXmjR/eternal-the-exit-interview |
# We can all be high status
Extension of [Give praise](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fg7pqjiKfqLsErAfq/give-praise).
This is part analysis, part a heartfelt story of my engagement with the LW/EA community. I usually don't like to kick up dust, but I've decided to write an honest representation of my feelings, here ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T5W2xiQ6KZyEHDvEk/we-can-all-be-high-status |
# Standard ML Oracles vs Counterfactual ones
**EDIT**: This post has been superceeded by [all](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KoEY9CjrKe93ErYhd/self-confirming-predictions-can-be-arbitrarily-bad) [these](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2dNFgbjnqZBfeitT/oracles-sequence-predictors-and-self-confirming-predictions) [fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hJaJw6LK39zpyCKW6/standard-ml-oracles-vs-counterfactual-ones |
# Maps of Meaning: Abridged and Translated
Jordan Peterson has come up in the rationalsphere before; [SSC](http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/03/26/book-review-twelve-rules-for-life/) [reviewed](http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/04/03/highlights-from-the-comments-on-twelve-rules/) his recent book 12 Rules for Life, which... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZaJNuYdAAC4kzcdc7/maps-of-meaning-abridged-and-translated |
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