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# Preference synthesis illustrated: Star Wars
**EDIT**: this post is intended to be mainly about preference ordering synthesis, not Star Wars.
This is my ordering of the core Star Wars movies:
* The Empire Strikes Back > Return of the Jedi >= The Last Jedi > Rogue One > A New Hope = The Rise of Skywalker > The Force... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nfizy2uRNkZmX3AYB/preference-synthesis-illustrated-star-wars |
# Criticism as Entertainment
ETA: This post relies on video embeds that didn't carry over when LW imported it. For the full experience, see [here](https://acesounderglass.com/2019/12/31/criticism-as-entertainment/).
Media Reviews
-------------
There is a popular genre of video that consist of shitting on other peopl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cYnPwTSzadgyKaBKF/criticism-as-entertainment |
# Outer alignment and imitative amplification
## Understanding the outer alignment problem
What really is outer alignment? In “[Risks from Learned Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820),” we defined outer alignment in the context of machine learning as “aligning the specified loss function with the intended ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/33EKjmAdKFn3pbKPJ/outer-alignment-and-imitative-amplification |
# On Being Robust
_Inspired in part by [Being a Robust Agent](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2jfiMgKkh7qw9z8Do/being-a-robust-agent). Flipside of [Half-assing it with everything you've got](http://mindingourway.com/half-assing-it-with-everything-youve-got/)._
Do you ever feel... fake? Like, at any minute, Scooby Doo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eX2aobNp5uCdcpsiK/on-being-robust |
# What is Success in an Immoral Maze?
Previously in Sequence: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/12/28/moloch-hasnt-won/), [Perfect Competition](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/12/29/perfect-competition/), [Imperfect Competition](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/imperfect-competition/), [Do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bQ7BKK5efogcR9YqN/what-is-success-in-an-immoral-maze |
# Offer of co-authorship
I am offering interested persons to become a co-author on (a revised version of) my paper "[forecasting using incomplete models](https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.04630)". The paper was rejected from the Electronic Journal of Statistics with possibility to resubmit. The main criticism of the reviewer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3urp8gNfMEbjrwoNS/offer-of-co-authorship |
# Example: Markov Chain
The [previous post in this sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zFGGHGfhYsGNnh7Kp/how-to-throw-away-information-in-causal-dags) discussed how to throw away information in causal DAGs. This post provides a detailed example using a Markov chain.
Suppose we have an n-state Markov chain (CS p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KEZzAge6mgyo5GDi9/example-markov-chain |
# Book review: Rethinking Consciousness
*(Update September 2024: My thinking has developed a bit since 2020. See [[Intuitive self-models] 2. Conscious Awareness](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/73xBjgoHuiKvJ5WRk/intuitive-self-models-2-conscious-awareness) for my own Rethinking-Consciousness-adjacent theorizing.)*
Pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/biKchmLrkatdBbiH8/book-review-rethinking-consciousness |
# Of arguments and wagers
*Automatically crossposted from* [*ai-alignment.com*](https://ai-alignment.com/)
(In which I explore an unusual way of combining the two.)
Suppose that Alice and Bob disagree, and both care about Judy’s opinion. Perhaps Alice wants to convince Judy that raising the minimum wage is a cost-ef... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aPsdGPCpcyPqkatgc/of-arguments-and-wagers |
# A method for fair bargaining over odds in 2 player bets!
Alice and Bob are talking about the odds of some event E. Alice's odd's of E are 55% and Bob's are 90%. It becomes clear to them that they have different odds, and being good (and competitive) rationalists they decide to make a bet.
Essentially, bet construct... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ABMMQ5gSGHwRgExJk/a-method-for-fair-bargaining-over-odds-in-2-player-bets |
# 10 posts I like in the 2018 Review
I see basically every post that gets submitted to LessWrong, whereas many users come in and read things more occasionally, so I thought I'd list 10 posts I like in the 2018 Review that people might have missed.
I wasn't able to write quick reviews of each of them, so this is more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diGDvru3i2CGz6SW2/10-posts-i-like-in-the-2018-review |
# Moral uncertainty vs related concepts
Overview
========
> How important is the well‐being of non‐human animals compared with the well‐being of humans?
> How much should we spend on helping strangers in need?
> How much should we care about future generations?
> How should we weigh reasons of autonomy and respect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oZsyK4SjnPe6HGia8/moral-uncertainty-vs-related-concepts |
# Please Critique Things for the Review!
I’ve spent a [lot of time defending LW authors’ right to have the conversation they want to have](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Ym7DN6h877eyaCnT/meta-tations-on-moderation-towards-public-archipelago), whether that be early stage brainstorming, developing a high context idea,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xXg4PoHEtnxfaqBXH/please-critique-things-for-the-review |
# Is it worthwhile to save the cord blood and tissue?
My wife and I are expecting a baby this May. I only recently learned about this, but apparently there is an option to save the cord blood and tissue during the delivery. This seems potentially very useful, so I'm wondering if anyone has done research into this or h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x8vrfJDpue65p9SXg/is-it-worthwhile-to-save-the-cord-blood-and-tissue |
# Using Vickrey auctions as a price discovery mechanism
I recommend "[Pricing niche products: Why sell a mechanical keyboard kit for $1,668?](https://kevinlynagh.com/notes/pricing-niche-products/)" for providing a practical case study in price dynamics that helped with my economic intuitions.
The author's friend had ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYZ3TzLw4Hed7msns/using-vickrey-auctions-as-a-price-discovery-mechanism |
# Key Decision Analysis - a fundamental rationality technique
**The technique**
This post is signal-boosting and recommending a strategy for improving your decision making that I picked up from the entrepreneur [Ivan Mazour](http://www.ivanmazour.com/about-me/). He describes the process [here](http://www.ivanmazour.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y54fv6BasFtucpF7D/key-decision-analysis-a-fundamental-rationality-technique |
# How to Identify an Immoral Maze
Previously in sequence: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN/moloch-hasn-t-won), [Perfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gECsXTQPBKda9rrGe/perfect-competition), [Imperfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4NrmDPrCAnwM3uiyB/imp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zpA2Tnp2k38qSmr8J/how-to-identify-an-immoral-maze |
# Malign generalization without internal search
In [my last post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/nFDXq7HTv9Xugcqaw/is-the-term-mesa-optimizer-too-narrow), I challenged the idea that inner alignment failures should be explained by appealing to agents which perform explicit internal search. By doing so, I argued t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ynt9TD6PrYw6iT49m/malign-generalization-without-internal-search |
# How would we check if "Mathematicians are generally more Law Abiding?"
In [Local Validity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WQFioaudEH8R7fyhm/local-validity-as-a-key-to-sanity-and-civilization), Eliezer notes:
> But I would venture a guess and hypothesis that you are better off buying a used car from a random mathem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9MztEdRLeYcTDvuiZ/how-would-we-check-if-mathematicians-are-generally-more-law |
# Update on Ought's experiments on factored evaluation of arguments
[Ought](https://ought.org/) has written a detailed update and analysis of recent experiments on factored cognition. These are experiments with human participants and don’t involve any machine learning. The goal is to learn about the viability of [IDA]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pH3eKEAEupx8c2ep9/update-on-ought-s-experiments-on-factored-evaluation-of |
# UML VI: Stochastic Gradient Descent
(This is part six in a sequence on Machine Learning based on [this book](https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Machine-Learning-Theory-Algorithms/dp/1107057132). Click [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z29etNPef6yvrPteK/understanding-machine-learning-i) for part 1.)
_**Stocha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Htxpyt5RKD3MSJer/uml-vi-stochastic-gradient-descent |
# How has the cost of clothing insulation changed since 1970 in the USA?
I sometimes hear the claim that innovation in the physical world has stagnated since around 1970. More specifically, chapter 1 of The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J Gordon claims that there has been basically no innovation in clothi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pnZQ2K8siSH8xZN4h/how-has-the-cost-of-clothing-insulation-changed-since-1970 |
# Drawing Toward Power
At the Bay Area pre-solstice unconference, I gave a talk which started as a discussion of how rationalists could build tools to enable better organization and conversation online. I'm a largely improvisational speaker though, and it quickly turned into a discussion of the future of the movement.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mdgySBfm57jpckZbR/drawing-toward-power |
# Why a New Rationalization Sequence?
This is the first in a five-post mini-sequence about rationalization, which I intend to post one-per-day. And you may ask, why should we have such a sequence?
What is Rationalization and Why is it Bad?
==========================================
For those of you just tuning in, r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vaiBdmKaG35S9tK9/why-a-new-rationalization-sequence |
# Moral uncertainty: What kind of 'should' is involved?
_This post follows on from [my prior post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oZsyK4SjnPe6HGia8/moral-uncertainty-vs-related-concepts); consider reading that post first._
We are often forced to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. This may be empirical u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gvrojpfzizDvmPJJN/moral-uncertainty-what-kind-of-should-is-involved |
# Repossessing Degrees
Several months ago I [argued that](https://www.jefftk.com/p/fixing-student-loans) we should allow student loans to be discharged through bankruptcy. Yesterday I [realized](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22030340) another way to modify student loans to be more compatible with bankruptcy: al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7oLZh78Et9xRC5aHi/repossessing-degrees |
# Red Flags for Rationalization
Previously: [Why a New Rationalization Sequence?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vaiBdmKaG35S9tK9/why-a-new-rationalization-sequence)
What are Red Flags?
===================
A red flag is a warning sign that you may have rationalized. Something that is practical to observe and more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZE8F3FtcoEqih74pu/red-flags-for-rationalization |
# Predictors exist: CDT going bonkers... forever
I've been wanting to get a better example of CDT ([causal decision theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_decision_theory)) misbehaving, where the behaviour is more clearly suboptimal than it is in the [Newcomb problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ddcsdA2c2Xp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kr76XzME7TFkN937z/predictors-exist-cdt-going-bonkers-forever |
# Is backwards causation necessarily absurd?
In [Newcomb's problem](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Newcomb's_problem) an agent picks either one-box or two-box and finds that no matter which option they picked, a predictor predicted them in advance. I've gone to a lot of effort to explain how this can be without requi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pa7mvEmEgt336gBSf/is-backwards-causation-necessarily-absurd |
# A rant against robots
What comes to your mind when you hear the word "_artificial intelligence"_ (or "_artificial general intelligence"_)? And if you want to prepare the future, what should come to your mind?
It seems that when most people hear AI, they think of _robots_. Weirdly, this observation includes both lay... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bwqDrSZvhEDKxRf6z/a-rant-against-robots |
# Clarifying The Malignity of the Universal Prior: The Lexical Update
[UPDATE: looks like the lexical update is real after all; see Paul's comment and my reply]
In Paul's classic post [What does the universal prior actually look like?](https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/what-does-the-universal-prior-act... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/peebMuCuscjkNvTnE/clarifying-the-malignity-of-the-universal-prior-the-lexical |
# Avoiding Rationalization
Previously: [Red Flags for Rationalization](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZE8F3FtcoEqih74pu/red-flags-for-rationalization
)
* * *
It is often said that the best way to resist temptation is to avoid it. This includes the temptation to rationalize. You can avoid rationalization by denying ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YemidbCjjg4w4FRGz/avoiding-rationalization |
# In defense of deviousness
_Why hard-to-read code can be a good code. A complex criticism to the “keep it simple” universal coding advice_
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is easy to find articles and decalogues where experienced softw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/keymC6ygfeywfQPMB/in-defense-of-deviousness |
# ACDT: a hack-y acausal decision theory
Inspired by my [post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kr76XzME7TFkN937z/cdt-going-bonkers-forever) on problems with [causal decision theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kr76XzME7TFkN937z/cdt-going-bonkers-forever) (CDT), here is a hacked version of CDT that seems to be able... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9m2fzjNSJmd3yxxKG/acdt-a-hack-y-acausal-decision-theory |
# [AN #82]: How OpenAI Five distributed their training computation
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tU... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tikKda9LBzrkLfBJ/an-82-how-openai-five-distributed-their-training-computation |
# Go F*** Someone
As always, [cross-posted from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/01/13/go-f-someone/).
* * *
From Tokyo to TriBeCa, people are increasingly alone. People go on fewer dates, marry less and later, have smaller families if at all. People are having less sex, especially young people. The common ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7hC2h5RSPfMgdbzzr/go-f-someone |
# In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races
All else being equal, arms races are a waste of resources and often an example of the defection equilibrium in the [prisoner’s dilemma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma). However, in some cases, such capacity races may actually be the globally optimal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HpkZgmNskc2WwTy8N/in-defense-of-the-arms-races-that-end-arms-races |
# The Alignment-Competence Trade-Off, Part 1: Coalition Size and Signaling Costs
_This is part 1 of a series of posts I initially planned to organize as a massive post last summer on [principal-agent problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem). As that task quickly became overwhelming, I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WryaasZwceSyagGnu/the-alignment-competence-trade-off-part-1-coalition-size-and |
# Testing for Rationalization
Previously: [Avoiding Rationalization](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YemidbCjjg4w4FRGz/avoiding-rationalization)
* * *
So you've seen reason to suspect you might be rationalizing, and you can't avoid the situation, what now?
Here are some tests you can apply to see whether you were r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ykZbEpRTuywWmaAwz/testing-for-rationalization |
# How to Escape From Immoral Mazes
Previously in sequence and most on point: [What is Success in an Immoral Maze?](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/01/10/what-is-success-in-an-immoral-maze/), [How to Identify an Immoral Maze](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/01/12/how-to-identify-an-immoral-maze/)
This post deals w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a8wjKNSGCPSzdWMMa/how-to-escape-from-immoral-mazes |
# Reality-Revealing and Reality-Masking Puzzles
*Tl;dr: I’ll try here to show how [CFAR’s](https://rationality.org/about/mission) “art of rationality” has evolved over time, and what has driven that evolution.*
*In the course of this, I’ll introduce the distinction between what I’ll call “reality-revealing puzzles” a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/byewoxJiAfwE6zpep/reality-revealing-and-reality-masking-puzzles |
# Bay Solstice 2019 Retrospective
I was the Creative Director for last year’s Winter Solstice in the Bay Area. I worked with Nat Kozak and Chelsea Voss, who were both focused more on logistics. Chelsea was also the official leader who oversaw both me and Nat and had final say on disputes. (However, I was granted dicta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auL2gAGTb3MsYhCeN/bay-solstice-2019-retrospective |
# Using Expert Disagreement
Previously: [Testing for Rationalization](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ykZbEpRTuywWmaAwz/testing-for-rationalization)
* * *
One of the red flags was "disagreeing with experts". While all the preceding tools apply here, there's a suite of special options for examining this particular sc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fbgi77gaK5tfWdLRY/using-expert-disagreement |
# Can we always assign, and make sense of, subjective probabilities?
_Epistemic status: I wrote this post quickly, and largely to solicit feedback on the claims I make in it. This is because (a) I’m not sure about these claims (or how I’ve explained them), and (b) the question of what I **should** believe on this topi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NpkDPQjN5ceF75QaP/can-we-always-assign-and-make-sense-of-subjective |
# Studying Early Stage Science: Research Program Introduction
*(Leverage just posted the below introduction into their current research program to Medium, and I got permission to crosspost it here. I think it's quite a good read, and I more broadly think that the history of science is one of the best ways to study the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5eGXy3Do8FkGdYTKL/studying-early-stage-science-research-program-introduction |
# "How quickly can you get this done?" (estimating workload)
_Epistemic status: based partly upon what I learnt as a certified ScrumMaster and mainly from practical experience running a software development team. Some of the later ideas come from [Gower Handbook of Project Management](https://s3.amazonaws.com/academia... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aQAj9E8Gyh7KxJHe7/how-quickly-can-you-get-this-done-estimating-workload |
# Remote AI alignment writing group seeking new members
If you're interested, then email me (<given name of President
Nixon>.moehn@posteo.de) or PM me on LessWrong.
We meet weekly for 15 min ⨉ number of members. At the moment the meetings consist of explaining aspects of our
research to each other. This helps us get ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arQGFKKeNnNFC8pH8/remote-ai-alignment-writing-group-seeking-new-members |
# Political Roko's basilisk
Why has there never been a "political Roko's basilisk", i.e. a bill or law that promises to punish any member of parliament who voted against it (or more generally any individual with government power, e.g. judge or bureaucrat, who did not do everything in their capacity to make it law)?
E... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yDKaLkT9bNWNCFJqn/political-roko-s-basilisk |
# The Road to Mazedom
Previous post: [How Escape From Immoral Mazes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/01/16/how-escape-from-immoral-mazes/)
Sequence begins here: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/12/28/moloch-hasnt-won/)
The previous posts mostly took mazes as given.
As an individual, one’s ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KLdqetnxgprifo9BP/the-road-to-mazedom |
# Book review: Human Compatible
Book review: Human Compatible, by Stuart Russell.
Human Compatible provides an analysis of the long-term risks from
artificial intelligence, by someone with a good deal more of the
relevant prestige than any prior author on this subject.
What should I make of Russell? I skimmed ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5fr8ZZ4mTpvciZu4K/book-review-human-compatible |
# UML VII: Meta-Learning
(This is the seventh post in a sequence on Machine Learning based on [this book](https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Machine-Learning-Theory-Algorithms/dp/1107057132). Click [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/C8wgFMCmoMNbvDSMP/p/Z29etNPef6yvrPteK) for part I.)
Meta
====
A more accurate titl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YMryxaMrkTtYFjadD/uml-vii-meta-learning |
# Use-cases for computations, other than running them?
In imperative programming languages, the main purpose of a program is to specify a computation, which we then run. But it seems a rather... _unimaginative_ use of a computation, simply to _run_ it.
Having specified a computation, what else might one want to do wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hw2AXdwjZz4kSF955/use-cases-for-computations-other-than-running-them |
# Why Do You Keep Having This Problem?
One thing I've noticed recently is that when someone complains about how a certain issue "just keeps happening" or they "keep having to deal with it", it often seems to indicate an unsolved problem that people may not be aware of. Some examples:
* Players of a game repeatedly ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5szzExCviurMCQ5kw/why-do-you-keep-having-this-problem |
# Inner alignment requires making assumptions about human values
Many approaches to AI alignment require making assumptions about what humans want. On a first pass, it might appear that inner alignment is a sub-component of AI alignment that doesn't require making these assumptions. This is because if we define the pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6m5qqkeBTrqQsegGi/inner-alignment-requires-making-assumptions-about-human |
# How Doomed are Large Organizations?
We now take the model from the previous post, and ask the questions over the next several posts. This first answer post asks these questions:
1. Are these dynamics the inevitable results of large organizations?
2. How can we forestall these dynamics within an organization?
3. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ubHeLGc73iDvP6cTN/how-doomed-are-large-organizations |
# Safety regulators: A tool for mitigating technological risk
_[Crossposted](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8ymD2eTLaXLkN9MLN/safety-regulators-a-tool-for-mitigating-technological-risk) to the Effective Altruism Forum_
So far the idea of [differential technological development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bMmhR4epWEQ6prSZh/safety-regulators-a-tool-for-mitigating-technological-risk |
# Disasters
If there were a natural disaster tomorrow and it took about two weeks to get things working again, how many people would be ok for food, water, and other necessities? I'm guessing below 5%, but I think this level of preparedness would be a good goal for most people who can afford it. Why don't people plan ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7zAfgd42aCp6rbC8W/disasters |
# Logical Representation of Causal Models
_Epistemic status: I expect some people to say "this is obvious and trivial", and others to say "this makes no sense at all"._
One fundamental difference between [E.T. Jaynes’ probability textbook](https://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Science-T-Jaynes/dp/0521592712) and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2DQHvGaH6C7dmwtdT/logical-representation-of-causal-models |
# Terms & literature for purposely lossy communication
Say I have a 10 of coins that could either be red or blue, and heads or tails. This has 20 bits of information.
My friend is interested in knowing about which of them are heads or tails, but doesn’t care about the color. I then decide to only tell my friend the h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XxTANpMK3L4yx76NB/terms-and-literature-for-purposely-lossy-communication |
# [AN #83]: Sample-efficient deep learning with ReMixMatch
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZrCsaCXrMTgrX9GzK/an-83-sample-efficient-deep-learning-with-remixmatch |
# (A -> B) -> A in Causal DAGs
[Agenty things have the type signature (A -> B) -> A](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhsELHzAHFebRJE59/a-greater-than-b-greater-than-a). In English: agenty things have some model (A -> B) which predicts the results (B) of their own actions (A). They use that model to decide what actions... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G25RBnBk5BNpv3KyF/a-greater-than-b-greater-than-a-in-causal-dags |
# Cassette Tape Thoughts
> “The packaging of intellectual positions and views is one of the most active enterprises of some of the best minds of our day. The viewer of television, the listener to radio, the reader of magazines, is presented with a whole complex of elements-all the way from ingenious rhetoric to carefu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2tNYywn2rvodRrr3J/cassette-tape-thoughts |
# Formulating Reductive Agency in Causal Models
The [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G25RBnBk5BNpv3KyF/a-greater-than-b-greater-than-a-in-causal-dags) talked about what agenty systems look like, in the context of causal models. The reductive agency problem asks: how are agenty systems built out of non-a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qrWFvMnRm4SkKnpRZ/formulating-reductive-agency-in-causal-models |
# New paper: The Incentives that Shape Behaviour
Abstract: Which variables does an agent have an incentive to control with its decision, and which variables does it have an incentive to respond to? We formalise these incentives, and demonstrate unique graphical criteria for detecting them in any single decision causal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TgPCet7m9DnkuxyKP/new-paper-the-incentives-that-shape-behaviour |
# Theory of Causal Models with Dynamic Structure?
I'm looking for any work done involving causal models with dynamic structure, i.e. some variables in the model determine the structure of other parts of the model.
I know some probabilistic programming languages support dynamic structure (e.g. the [pyro docs](http://d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/37bPKpn3h7QFxqMAQ/theory-of-causal-models-with-dynamic-structure |
# Emergency Prescription Medication
In the comments on yesterday's post on [planning for disasters](https://www.jefftk.com/p/disasters) people brought up the situation of medications. As with many things in how the US handles healthcare and drugs, this is a mess.
The official recommendation is to prepare emergency su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CKy3ModunGKrdYcDe/emergency-prescription-medication |
# 2018 Review: Voting Results!
The votes are in!
59 of the 430 eligible voters participated, evaluating 75 posts. Meanwhile, 39 users submitted a total of 120 reviews, with most posts getting at least one review.
Thanks a ton to everyone who put in time to think about the posts - nominators, reviewers and voters al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3yqf6zJSwBF34Zbys/2018-review-voting-results |
# Epistea Summer Experiment (ESE)
_Remark: This post was written collectively by the [organizing team](https://experience.epistea.org/team/) of the Epistea Summer Experiment._
_Cross-posted to the EA_ Forum _[here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/va3DyezDNiav6Fr6Y/epistea-summer-experiment-ese)._
Epistea S... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBtHgFBcvRkQwgaGg/epistea-summer-experiment-ese |
# The two-layer model of human values, and problems with synthesizing preferences
I have been thinking about Stuart Armstrong's [preference synthesis research agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into), and have long had the feeling that ther... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2yLn8iTrvHoEgqXcJ/the-two-layer-model-of-human-values-and-problems-with |
# AI alignment concepts: philosophical breakers, stoppers, and distorters
_Meta: This is one of my abstract existential risk strategy concept posts that are designed to be about different perspectives or foundations upon which to build further._
### Introduction
When thinking about philosophy one may encounter _phil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AFfjT9ySr8zgqMRPw/ai-alignment-concepts-philosophical-breakers-stoppers-and |
# Litany Against Anger
The map is not the territory, \
the word is not the thing.
My anger is not the trigger, \
triggers do not become more or less important \
as I feel anger wax and wane.
Emotions are motivation, \
they're supposed to get me to do the right thing.
Defuse from my frustration, \
brea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ArWhKC3Nr9ZjYjej/litany-against-anger |
# Cambridge Prediction Game
In order to improve our prediction and calibration skills, the Cambridge, MA rationalist community has been community has been running a prediction game (and keeping score) at a succession of rationalist group houses since 2013.
Below are the rules:
### General
The game consists of a seri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zdv2W3GR7Po64exDN/cambridge-prediction-game |
# Have epistemic conditions always been this bad?
In the last few months, I've gotten increasingly alarmed by leftist politics in the US, and the epistemic conditions that it operates under and is imposing wherever it gains power. (Quite possibly the conditions are just as dire on the right, but they are not as visibl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PjfsbKrK5MnJDDoFr/have-epistemic-conditions-always-been-this-bad |
# On the ontological development of consciousness
This post is about what consciousness is, ontologically, and how ontologies that include consciousness develop.
The topic of consciousness is quite popular, and confusing, in philosophy. While I do not seek to fully resolve the philosophy of consciousness, I hope to o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yG5kW3uGPorxh8FBs/on-the-ontological-development-of-consciousness |
# Ten Causes of Mazedom
We continue answering the questions we asked earlier. It was claimed last time that maze levels and the danger of mazes was lower in the past than it is now, and that overall maze levels have been rising, as measured both by maze levels within organizations across the board, and maze levels wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S84Tcb7oXZJoTPHCe/ten-causes-of-mazedom |
# Technology Changes Constraints
A thousand years ago, books were generally written by hand, on parchment made from sheep skin. I don't have a good source on how long it took a person to transcribe a typical book, so for the purpose of this post let's just call it 30 days. I do know that a typical book required the sk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JJv8jmLYzYzdYkS3c/technology-changes-constraints |
# Constraints & Slackness as a Worldview Generator
[Last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xEFeCwk3pdYdeG2rL/p/JJv8jmLYzYzdYkS3c) speculated that capital was much more scarce (relative to labor) in medieval/renaissance China than Europe. We introduced the hypothesis that this was a major cause (though not a [root caus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DMopaHKS79aGMmLkA/constraints-and-slackness-as-a-worldview-generator |
# Material Goods as an Abundant Resource
If you want to understand the modern economy, as opposed to the economies of yore, one source I strongly recommend is a short story from the July 1958 issue of Astounding Science Fiction, titled “[Business As Usual During Alterations](http://www.vb-tech.co.za/ebooks/Williams%20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWxizGwgpNhckrzfc/material-goods-as-an-abundant-resource |
# Are the bad epistemic conditions global?
You've set this in the context of USA politics and society. Clearly it is not just limited to the USA. I seem to recall similar types of things occurring in Europe over the past 20 - 30 years.
I also suspect one might find this type of problem more prevalent within the envir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hByMWumdWkrLJCNC9/are-the-bad-epistemic-conditions-global |
# Coordination as a Scarce Resource
Let’s start with a few examples of very common real-world coordination problems.
* The marketing department at a car dealership posts ads for specific cars, but the salespeople don’t know which cars were advertised, causing confusion when a customer calls in asking about a specif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P6fSj3t4oApQQTB7E/coordination-as-a-scarce-resource |
# Moral public goods
*Automatically crossposted*
Suppose that a kingdom contains a million peasants and a thousand nobles, and:
* Each noble makes as much as 10,000 peasants put together, such that collectively the nobles get 90% of the income.
* Each noble cares about as much about themselves as they do about a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pqKwra9rRYYMvySHc/moral-public-goods |
# Hedonic asymmetries
*Automatically crossposted*
Creating really good outcomes for humanity seems hard. We get bored. If we don’t get bored, we still don’t like the idea of joy without variety. And joyful experiences only seems good if they are real and meaningful (in some sense we can’t easily pin down). And so on.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xDB54KvLrgaq9ZHg/hedonic-asymmetries |
# On hiding the source of knowledge
I notice that when I write for a public audience, I usually present ideas in a modernist, skeptical, academic style; whereas, the way I come up with ideas is usually in part by engaging in epistemic modalities that such a style has difficulty conceptualizing or considers illegitimat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NQQzXpahhkb6f6ZCe/on-hiding-the-source-of-knowledge |
# The Bentham Prize at Metaculus
[Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?invite=DW5XlK) is running a small competition right now called [the Bentham Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3523/announcing-the-bentham-prize/?invite=DW5XlK). The premise is simple: contribute to the discussions of [questions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzoYPCZfbWczbCjRB/the-bentham-prize-at-metaculus |
# Healing vs. exercise analogies for emotional work
I know a fair number of people who put in a lot of effort into things like emotional healing, digging up and dealing with buried trauma, meditative and therapy practices, and so on. (I count myself in this category.)
And I think that there’s a thing that sometimes h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s6yy2oGbENSPLwGRS/healing-vs-exercise-analogies-for-emotional-work |
# What research has been done on the altruistic impact of the usual good actions?
What I mean by the "usual good actions" is notable good deeds you do may be a few times every week. Some examples:
* Help a friend end an abusive relationship.
* Go out of your way to help a stranger.
* Do something extra nice and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZRegXDB5BQEhPXY4W/what-research-has-been-done-on-the-altruistic-impact-of-the |
# Review: How to Read a Book (Mortimer Adler, Charles Van Doren)
As part of my research on how to [bootstrap understanding in a field](https://acesounderglass.com/2020/01/06/call-for-volunteers/), I’m reading books that attempt to answer that question. You might think I should have started with that, but it was useful... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puv9RQaTZZNa5dzbu/review-how-to-read-a-book-mortimer-adler-charles-van-doren |
# AI Alignment 2018-19 Review
Preamble
========
#### What this post is
This is a review post of public work in AI alignment over 2019, with some inclusions from 2018. It has this preamble (~700 words), a short version / summary (~1.6k words), and a long version (~8.3k words). It is available as a Google Doc [here](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dKxX76SCfCvceJXHv/ai-alignment-2018-19-review |
# Rationalist prepper thread
There are different estimates of the possible severity of the current coronavirus outbreak. One estimation is based on the straight extrapolation of the exponential growth of the infected people number, which doubles every two days. This implies that the whole population of Earth will be i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/imkx2ke3xiiak6MsH/rationalist-prepper-thread |
# Appendix: how a subagent could get powerful
tl;dr: *There are ways of ensuring an agent doesn't have a large impact, by giving an impact penalty. One such penalty is "attainable utility", which measures its "power" by how much it could optimise certain reward functions. But in many circumstances, the agent can build... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sYjCeZTwA84pHkhBJ/appendix-how-a-subagent-could-get-powerful |
# Algorithms vs Compute
Two scenarios:
* I take a vision or language model which was cutting edge in 2000, and run it with a similar amount of compute/data to what's typically used today.
* I take a modern vision or language model, calculate how much money it costs to train, estimate the amount of compute I could... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QFuTYKhF4ouXTn9ML/algorithms-vs-compute |
# Assortative Mating And Autism
**Introduction**
Assortative mating is when similar people marry and have children. Some people worry about assortative mating in Silicon Valley: highly analytical tech workers marry other highly analytical tech workers. If highly analytical tech workers have more autism risk genes tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pfaTqpWFghfrbvzaD/assortative-mating-and-autism |
# If Van der Waals was a neural network
If Van der Waals was a neural network
=====================================
At some point in history a lot of thought was put into obtaining the equation:
`R*T = P*V/n`
The ideal gas equation we learn in kindergarten, which uses the magic number `R`
in order to make predict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R4mWiGqpmBgyxYFKp/if-van-der-waals-was-a-neural-network |
# Using vector fields to visualise preferences and make them consistent
_This post was written for [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/) by Michael Aird, based on ideas from Justin Shovelain and with ongoing guidance from him. Throughout the post, “I” will refer to Michael, while “we” will refer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ky988ePJvCRhmCwGo/using-vector-fields-to-visualise-preferences-and-make-them |
# Draining the swamp
In an [earlier post](https://rootsofprogress.org/weapons-against-infectious-disease), I outlined our main weapons against infectious disease, including vaccines, antibiotics, antiseptics, pest control, sanitation, and general hygiene. These technologies (in a broad sense, even hand-washing is a te... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XmorxXbvQgr3foqoS/draining-the-swamp-1 |
# Potential Ways to Fight Mazes
[The previous post](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/01/25/ten-causes-of-mazedom/) listed some of the causes of higher than normal maze present in today’s society.
This post asks what might be done about it, both as an individual and via group coordination.
I believe it is better to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S2Tgbve2d3vpsNtrQ/potential-ways-to-fight-mazes |
# Survival and Flourishing grant applications open until March 7th ($0.8MM-$1.5MM planned for dispersal)
The Survival and Flourishing Fund has taken over most of the grantmaking of the Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (BERI) and just opened up another grant round (after the [last round](https://forum.effectivealtr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JoEoKKevS4LbRJiyW/survival-and-flourishing-grant-applications-open-until-march |
# Mod Notice about Election Discussion
*TL;DR: Posts discussing the presidential election may be hidden, not appearing in recent discussion, on the home page, or on the allPosts page.*
Ben Landau-Taylor wrote [The Four Year Locusts](https://benlandautaylor.com/2018/09/22/the-four-year-locusts/) to describe the period... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5xhnA6AK3gi6QSHMa/mod-notice-about-election-discussion |
# TAISU - Technical AI Safety Unconference
**COVID-19 Update!**
TAISU in it's planed form is cancelled. But there will be a **Web-TAISU** around the same theme, and around the same time. I will make an announcement and probably open up for more applications when this thing is a bit more planed out.
* * *
**Start:**... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/BPTzfeQeZZ6chHvtr/taisu-technical-ai-safety-unconference-1 |
# The Skewed and the Screwed: When Mating Meets Politics
Cross-posted, as always, [from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/01/26/skewed-and-the-screwed/).
* * *
If an alien learned about our world from browsing [the internet of beefs](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2020/01/16/the-internet-of-beefs/), they would b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hEZCkQYtJkr25zLmv/the-skewed-and-the-screwed-when-mating-meets-politics |
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